Evaluation and comparison of multimedia mass balance models of chemical fate: application of EUSES and ChemCAN to 68 chemicals in Japan

Risk-based prioritization of organic substances in the Canadian National Pollutant Release Inventory using an evaluative regional-scale multimedia mass balance model

The National Pollutant Release Inventory (NPRI) is a Canadian inventory of facility-reported data on releases, transfers, and disposals of over 300 pollutants, but it does not contain information on chemical properties or other characteristics critical to understanding environmental and human health risks. To reconcile this gap, we use the Risk Assessment IDentification And Ranking (RAIDAR) model to integrate NPRI release data with chemical property information in a multimedia mass balance model to combine exposure estimates with toxicity hazard data yielding an estimate of risk for 198 NPRI organic substances reported in 2010-2019. The presented case study further corroborates the hypothesis that risk-based ranking gives rise to different chemical priorities versus ranking based on release quantity alone. Chemicals like propane and hexane (except n-hexane) are in the top 10 highest-ranked organic substances based on emission quantities reported to NPRI but are ranked outside the top 10 based on corresponding regional-scale risk estimates. On the contrary, dioxins and furans are ranked very low based on emissions quantities reported to NPRI but are ranked higher based on corresponding risk estimates. The results also suggest that although quantities of some NPRI organic pollutant releases change over time, the ensuing risk estimates are not always directly proportional to these changes. This can be explained by changes in mode of entry to the environment that can influence the overall fate and exposure of the same chemicals, highlighting the complex dynamics that can occur when simulating fate and risk as opposed to quantity alone. Limitations are discussed and recommendations are provided for improving the priority setting methods, including reducing the uncertainty of the NPRI data and the need for multimedia models to address point source emissions. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2022;18:1722-1732. © 2022 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Introducing a nested multimedia fate and transport model for organic contaminants (NEM)

Some organic contaminants, including the persistent organic pollutants (POPs), have achieved global distribution through long range atmospheric transport (LRAT). Regulatory efforts, monitoring programs and modelling studies address the LRAT of POPs on national, continental (e.g. Europe) and/or global scales. Whereas national and continental-scale models require estimates of the input of globally dispersed chemicals from outside of the model domain, existing global-scale models either have relatively coarse spatial resolution or are so computationally demanding that it limits their usefulness. Here we introduce the Nested Exposure Model (NEM), which is a multimedia fate and transport model that is global in scale yet can achieve high spatial resolution of a user-defined target region without huge computational demands. Evaluating NEM by comparing model predictions for PCB-153 in air with measurements at nine long-term monitoring sites of the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) reveals that nested simulations at a resolution of 1°× 1° yield results within a factor of 1.5 of observations at sites in northern Europe. At this resolution, the model attributes more than 90% of the atmospheric burden within any of the grid cells containing an EMEP site to advective atmospheric transport from elsewhere. Deteriorating model performance with decreasing resolution (15°× 15°, 5°× 5° and 1°× 1°), manifested by overestimation of concentrations across most of northern Europe by more than a factor of 3, illustrates the effect of numerical diffusion. Finally, we apply the model to demonstrate how the choice of spatial resolution affect predictions of atmospheric deposition to the Baltic Sea. While we envisage that NEM may be used for a wide range of applications in the future, further evaluation will be required to delineate the boundaries of applicability towards chemicals with divergent fate properties as well as in environmental media other than air.

Development and validation of a simulation method, PeCHREM, for evaluating spatio-temporal concentration changes of paddy herbicides in rivers

In pesticide risk management in Japan, predicted environmental concentrations are estimated by a tiered approach, and the Ministry of the Environment also performs field surveys to confirm the maximum concentrations of pesticides with risk concerns. To contribute to more efficient and effective field surveys, we developed the Pesticide Chemicals High Resolution Estimation Method (PeCHREM) for estimating spatially and temporally variable emissions of various paddy herbicides from paddy fields to the environment. We used PeCHREM and the G-CIEMS multimedia environmental fate model to predict day-to-day environmental concentration changes of 25 herbicides throughout Japan. To validate the PeCHREM/G-CIEMS model, we also conducted a field survey, in which river waters were sampled at least once every two weeks at seven sites in six prefectures from April to July 2009. In 20 of 139 sampling site-herbicide combinations in which herbicides were detected in at least three samples, all observed concentrations differed from the corresponding prediction by less than one order of magnitude. We also compared peak concentrations and the dates on which the concentrations reached peak values (peak dates) between predictions and observations. The peak concentration differences between predictions and observations were less than one order of magnitude in 66% of the 166 sampling site-herbicide combinations in which herbicide was detected in river water. The observed and predicted peak dates differed by less than two weeks in 79% of these 166 combinations. These results confirm that the PeCHREM/G-CIEMS model can improve the efficiency and effectiveness of surveys by predicting the peak concentrations and peak dates of various herbicides.

Influence of monitoring data selection for optimization of a steady state multimedia model on the magnitude and nature of the model prediction bias

SimpleBox is an important multimedia model used to estimate the predicted environmental concentration for screening-level exposure assessment. The main objectives were (i) to quantitatively assess how the magnitude and nature of prediction bias of SimpleBox vary with the selection of observed concentration data set for optimization and (ii) to present the prediction performance of the optimized SimpleBox. The optimization was conducted using a total of 9604 observed multimedia data for 42 chemicals of four groups (i.e., polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins/furans (PCDDs/Fs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), phthalates, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs)). The model performance was assessed based on the magnitude and skewness of prediction bias. Monitoring data selection in terms of number of data and kind of chemicals plays a significant role in optimization of the model. The coverage of the physicochemical properties was found to be very important to reduce the prediction bias. This suggests that selection of observed data should be made such that the physicochemical property (such as vapor pressure, octanol-water partition coefficient, octanol-air partition coefficient, and Henry's law constant) range of the selected chemical groups be as wide as possible. With optimization, about 55%, 90%, and 98% of the total number of the observed concentration ratios were predicted within factors of three, 10, and 30, respectively, with negligible skewness.

Distribution mode and environmental risk of POP pesticides such as endosulfan under the agricultural practice of straw incorporating

The practice of incorporating post-harvest crop waste is widely used because it maintains soil fertility and avoids environmental pollution from straw burning. However, the practice of straw incorporation may also retain the pesticides that are applied to crop plants, which may pose a potential long term risk to local and regional environments if the applied pesticide is a Persistent, Bioaccumulative, and Toxic (PBT) substance or a Persistent Organic Pollutant (POP). Here we investigate the influence of the "receiving-retention-release" route on the distribution of a POP pesticide (endosulfan) and the associated environmental risk among different environmental compartments. Our study indicates that most endosulfan enters the atmosphere (φ_atmosphere = 64.5-72.5%), which is dominated by the indirect route of volatilization from crop plants (φ_{atmosphere, indirect} = 54.7-70.3%). In contrast, soil releases are minor (φ_soil = 10.8-20.5%), and are dominated by direct release during application (φ_{soil, direct} = 8.0-18.0%). Under the practice of straw incorporation, the use of endosulfan posed an environmental risk to agricultural soil. In addition, the atmospheric deposition of endosulfan also posed an environmental risk to sediment. The study highlights the significance of the "receiving-retention-release" route by crop plants in determining the fate of POP pesticides associated with straw incorporation; hence complementing the current methodology for assessing the environmental risk of these compounds.

Are the ratios of the two concentrations at steady state in the medium pairs of air-water, air-soil, water-soil, water-sediment, and soil-sediment?

For optimization and evaluation of a steady state multimedia model, concurrent multimedia monitoring data of steady state are necessary. In the lack of emission rate information, the primary aim of the present work was to assess if five concentration ratios (CRs) (C water/Cair, C soil/Cair, C sediment/C soil, C water/C soil, and C sediment/C water) of chemical compounds are at steady state in South Korea. A total of 16,676 CRs values were calculated using 74,641 concurrent multimedia (air, water, soil and sediment) monitoring data from 96 areas for 45 semi-volatile organic compounds (polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins/furans, polybrominated diphenyl ethers, phthalates, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons). Test of steady state indicated that CR is statistically at steady state with an overall occurrence rate of 70% of the 223 tested cases while the rates of individual chemical groups were 94.5%, 88%, 82.5%, and 37.6% for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, phthalates, polybrominated diphenyl ethers, and polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins/furans, respectively. About 83% of the steady state CRs resulted from scattering of two concentrations in each of the medium pairs without a certain temporal trend while the rest due to closely co-varying two concentrations. Analysis of the 95% confidence interval of the fugacity ratio indicated that CRs at steady state may occur in equilibrium state with higher chances than CRs at unsteady state. A total of 156 point values representing the CRs at steady state were determined that can be used for optimization and evaluation of steady state one-box multimedia models. However, potential influences of the uncertainties of the values arisen from the scattering of the concentration data should quantitatively be assessed in the model optimization and evaluation.

Development and evaluation of a dynamic multimedia model (ECORAME) for local scale assessment of aquatic ecological exposure to chemicals originating from sources in environmental media

Use of multimedia models (MMMs) has been limited in exposure assessment for aquatic ecosystems at local scale typically due to their coarse spatial resolution and inability to predict the individual concentrations of multiple streams within a watershed cell. An MMM named ECORAME is presented which overcomes the limitations by treating each water segment as an independent cell rather than a compartment within a watershed cell. This offers two advantages for exposure assessment, i.e., i) the spatial resolution for water is readily adjustable and ii) multiple water streams within one watershed cell could be handled individually. Model evaluation with respect to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) demonstrated that ECORAME's prediction of relative concentration agreed with measured values within a factor of five or less. A case study of PAHs using ECORAME shows that the concentration can change by more than 10 fold over the 40km main stream stretch of the Han River in Seoul, Korea. The concentration difference among multiple streams in the same watershed cell could be substantial (greater than 100 fold). Besides a need of finer spatial resolutons than those typically used in MMMs, the results strongly suggest that exposure prediction capability for individual streams in the same watershed is necessary for local scale assessment. As demostrated with ECORAME, the need can be effectively met by handling the water segments as individual cells in future MMMs.

Effects of input uncertainty and variability on the modelled environmental fate of organic pollutants under global climate change scenarios

Global climate change (GCC) is expected to influence the fate, exposure and risks of organic pollutants to wildlife and humans. Multimedia chemical fate models have been previously applied to estimate how GCC affects pollutant concentrations in the environment and biota, but previous studies have not addressed how uncertainty and variability of model inputs affect model predictions. Here, we assess the influence of climate variability and chemical property uncertainty on future projections of environmental fate of six polychlorinated biphenyl congeners under different GCC scenarios using a spreadsheet version of the ChemCAN model and the Crystal Ball® software. Regardless of emission mode, results demonstrate: (i) uncertainty in degradation half-lives dominates the variance of modelled absolute levels of PCB congeners under GCC scenarios; (ii) when the ratios of predictions under GCC to predictions under present day climate are modelled, climate variability dominates the variance of modelled ratios; and (iii) the ratios also indicate a maximum of about a factor of 2 change in the long-term average environmental concentrations due to GCC that is forecasted between present conditions and the period between 2080 and 2099. We conclude that chemical property uncertainty does not preclude assessing relative changes in a GCC scenario compared to a present-day scenario if variance in model outputs due to chemical properties and degradation half-lives can be assumed to cancel out in the two scenarios.

The inventory of sources, environmental releases and risk assessment for perfluorooctane sulfonate in China

With about 100 t/y of the production volume, perfluorootane sulfonates (PFOS) are mainly used for metal plating, aqueous fire-fighting foams (AFFFs) and sulfluramidin China, and the use amount is about 30-40 t/y, 25-35 t/y and 4-8 t/y respectively. Based on the inventory of PFOS production and uses with geographic distribution educed from statistics, environmental risk assessment of PFOS was taken by using EUSES model, as well as its environmental releases were estimated both in local and regional levels in China. While the environmental release from manufacture is significant in Central China region, metal plating was identified as the major PFOS release source in regional level. The East China region shows the most strong emission strength of PFOS. Though the predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) were not exceed current relevant predicted no effect concentrations (PNECs) of the risk characterization for PFOS, higher PECs was estimated around major PFOS release sources showing undesirable environmental risk at local level.

Spatial variability of intake fractions for Canadian emission scenarios: a comparison between three resolution scales

Spatially differentiated intake fractions (iFs) linked to Canadian emissions of toxic organic chemicals were developed using the multimedia and multipathways fate and exposure model IMPACT 2002. The fate and exposure of chemicals released to the Canadian environment were modeled with a single regional mass-balance model and three models that provided multiple mass-balance regions within Canada. These three models were based on the Canadian subwatersheds (172 zones), ecozones (15 zones), and provinces (13 zones). Releases of 32 organic chemicals into water and air were considered. This was done in order to (i) assess and compare the spatial variability of iFs within and across the three levels of regionalization and (ii) compare the spatial iFs to nonspatial ones. Results showed that iFs calculated using the subwatershed resolution presented a higher spatial variability (up to 10 orders of magnitude for emissions into water) than the ones based on the ecozones and provinces, implying that higher spatial resolution could potentially reduce uncertainty in iFs and, therefore, increase the discriminating power when assessing and comparing toxic releases for known emission locations. Results also indicated that, for an unknown emission location, a model with high spatial resolution such as the subwatershed model could significantly improve the accuracy of a generic iF. Population weighted iFs span up to 3 orders of magnitude compared to nonspatial iFs calculated by the one-box model. Less significant differences were observed when comparing spatial versus nonspatial iFs from the ecozones and provinces, respectively.

Interrelationship of Pyrogenic Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon (PAH) Contamination in Different Environmental Media

Interrelationships between pyrogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were assessed in air, soil, water, sediment, and tree leaves by using multi-media monitoring data. Concurrent concentration measurements were taken bimonthly for a year for the multi-media at urban and suburban sites. PAH level correlations between air and other media were observed at the urban site but were less clear at the suburban site. Considering a closer PAHs distribution/fate characteristics to soil than suspended solids, contamination in sediment seemed to be governed primarily by that in soil. The partitioning of PAHs in waters could be better accounted for by sorption onto black carbon and dissolved organic carbon.

Influence of the large grid size used in a multimedia mass balance model (POPsME) on the exposure assessment of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans

A multimedia mass balance model (MMM), POPsME, was evaluated for its performance to assess the fate and transport of 2,3,7,8-substituted PCDD/Fs in Seoul and a neighboring area (150 km x 150 km) in Korea. As part of the evaluation, the effects of the grid size with the homogeneous mixing assumption were estimated on the sign and magnitude of the prediction bias. The prediction compared with the monitoring data generally within 1 order of magnitude. In the presence of a concentration gradient within individual cells of 30 km x 30 km,the prediction bias for air and soil tended to increase with the distance from the sources. It was observed that the ratio of the predicted to the measured values could vary more than 4 times with the location of the monitoring site. Use of the large grid size in POPsME (and perhaps other MMMs) resulted in overpredictions for a major portion of the model domain at the cost of underprediction for limited areas nearthe sources. Beyond the source areas, a substantial contribution of the total prediction bias originated from the congeners with a large atmospheric loss rate and small TEF value. On a TEQ basis, therefore, the magnitude of the overpredictions could be significantly reduced as compared to that of the underprediction for the source areas.

Empirical evaluation of spatial and non-spatial European-scale multimedia fate models: results and implications for chemical risk assessment

Multimedia environmental fate models are commonly-applied tools for assessing the fate and distribution of contaminants in the environment. Owing to the large number of chemicals in use and the paucity of monitoring data, such models are often adopted as part of decision-support systems for chemical risk assessment. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of three multimedia environmental fate models (spatially- and non-spatially-explicit) at a European scale. The assessment was conducted for four polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and compared predicted and median observed concentrations using monitoring data collected for air, water, sediments and soils. Model performance in the air compartment was reasonable for all models included in the evaluation exercise as predicted concentrations were typically within a factor of 3 of the median observed concentrations. Furthermore, there was good correspondence between predictions and observations in regions that had elevated median observed concentrations for both spatially-explicit models. On the other hand, all three models consistently underestimated median observed concentrations in sediment and soil by 1-3 orders of magnitude. Although regions with elevated median observed concentrations in these environmental media were broadly identified by the spatially-explicit models, the magnitude of the discrepancy between predicted and median observed concentrations is of concern in the context of chemical risk assessment. These results were discussed in terms of factors influencing model performance such as the steady-state assumption, inaccuracies in emission estimates and the representativeness of monitoring data.

Modelling the long-term fate of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and furans (PCDD/Fs) in the Grenland Fjords, Norway

The development and application of a predictive fate model (DIG--Dioxins in Grenland) for polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/F) in the marine environment of the Norwegian Grenland Fjords are described. The objective of the modelling study was to predict long-term future changes in PCDD/F concentrations in the fjord following the cessation of point source emissions. To assess the reliability of the model, the model performance was evaluated by comparing model results to field measurements collected between 1989 and 2001. Model bias (defined as the ratio of median predicted concentration and median observed concentration) for prediction of concentrations for three different PCDD/F congeners (2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD), 1,2,3,6,7,8-hexadibenzofuran (HxCDF) and octachlorodibenzofuran (OCDF)) in the fjord was between 0.53 and 24, which was deemed a satisfactory result for models of this type. The model was run to determine the dynamic change in concentrations between 1950 and 2050 and to examine the key fluxes of PCDD/Fs in the fjord. Between 1990 and 2050 sediment concentrations of TCDD, HxCDF and OCDF were predicted to fall at fairly constant but gradually slowing rates to concentrations 52, 98 and 88 times lower, respectively, of their 1990 values. Losses of PCDD/Fs from the bottom sediments in the Frierfjord were predicted to be a combination of sediment burial and net resuspension to the water column. Sediment burial was shown to be relatively more important in the fjord's deep-water sediments, whereas resuspension was relatively more important in the shallow sediments. For the shallower sediments, a net water-to-sediment flux was predicted for all three congeners up until the mid-1970s, when emission reductions were initiated, and thereafter a net sediment-to-water flux was predicted. The shallow sediments acted as net sources to the deeper sediments and to the fishing areas in the outer fjord.

Calculation of environmental concentration and comparison of output for existing chemicals using regional multimedia modeling

The environmental fate of 40 existing chemicals is discussed using the EUSES multimedia distribution and risk assessment model with site-specific parameter setting in an urban area of Japan including a highly industrial region. There has been a strong need to assess the environmental fate of a huge number of existing chemicals. Data on the emission amounts of chemicals are essential for such prediction, and PRTR surveys may yield this data. The study delivered the following results: (1) Volatile compounds with large amounts of emission showed higher predicted concentrations in air, and the concentrations of several compounds agreed well with averaged monitoring data within an order of magnitude. (2) A close relationship was found between the concentration of water and that of sediment, suggesting that the fate of chemicals in sediment essentially depended on the water environment. (3) A group of volatile solvents had high mass distribution ratio to air. Some compounds having high solubility in water were also included in that group due to the high ratio of air emission. Highly hydrophobic compounds with logK(OW) larger than 6.0 showed a high distribution ratio to soil and sediment. (4) Volatile compounds were mostly taken through air. The exposure through fish is a dominant pathway for highly hydrophobic compounds. (5) Exposure ratio could be gathered from physicochemical properties. The exposure from fish intake was roughly estimated by logK(OW), whereas exposure from air and water intake was difficult to estimate simply by vapor pressure and solubility in water, respectively.

Risk assessment of "down-the-drain" chemicals: search for a suitable model

Legal and regulatory authorities around the world generally require that risk assessments are undertaken for the licensing of new and existing substances that present high risk to the environment or the human health. This applies to 'down-the-drain' chemicals that are usually found in household products, such as detergents, that are mainly discharged into rivers via sewer systems. However, the data available for these chemicals is often limited due to cost constraints: in particular, concentration time series for works effluent are generally unavailable, even load data for specific works is often scarce. Although a wide range of models are available, there is a general lack of knowledge on their suitability to model the fate of down-the-drain chemicals at the catchment scale. Several models are presented in this review. The models selected are: the Mackay models, EUSES, Mike 11, QUAL2E, TOMCAT and GREAT-ER. Various applications of these models were investigated to investigate their strength and weaknesses. It appears that, where the availability of data is limited, multimedia fate models such as the Mackay models and EUSES may best be applied to estimate the global risk within each media. However, for site-specific risk assessment the GREAT-ER in-stream water quality model was considered to be more appropriate for modelling down-the-drain chemicals, because it accounts for both spatial and temporal variability, while its data requirements are lower than for models such as Mike 11 and QUAL2E.

Ranking of chemical substances based on the Japanese Pollutant Release and Transfer Register using partial order theory and random linear extensions

In 1997 a Pollutant Release and Transfer Register (PRTR) pilot project was initiated in Japan. In 1998 the project was expanded and in 1999 a law concerning the establishment of a national PRTR was adopted. Data on the emissions of chemical substances are therefore now being reported on a continuous base. In relation to the PRTR project data on toxicity have been collected. In order to make efficient use of the collected information on emission and toxicity it is useful to group or rank the chemical substances according to the impact on human health and the environment. It has recently been argued that partial order theory (POT) in combination with the use of linear extensions (LE) may be the most objective way to create a linear rank. The methodology has been further expanded to handle larger data sets by the use of random linear extensions (RLE). In this paper the Japanese PRTR data are ranked using the POT/RLE methodology. An average rank is established for chemical substances in the 1998 and 1999 PRTR in Japan. The top 10 chemical substances in the 1998 PRTR are: dichlorvos, inorganic arsenic compounds, cobalt compounds, beryllium compounds, fenitrothion, disulfoton, parathion, diazinon, 4,4'-diamino-3,3'-dichlorodiphenylmethane and antimony compounds. The top 10 chemical substances from the 1999 PRTR are PCBs, lead compounds, fenitrothion, dichlorvos, disulfoton, inorganic arsenic compounds, chlorothalonil, thiobencarb, chromium and HCFC-141b. The descriptor having the highest influence on the ranking of the 1998 PRTR data is the production volume, which, however, is not given in the 1999 PRTR. Further, the disagreement between the ranking with the lack of toxicity data substituted with mean and maximum values, respectively, strongly indicates a general need for further toxicological investigations.

Evaluating multimedia/multipathway model intake fraction estimates using POP emission and monitoring data

This paper presents a structured evaluation of a novel multimedia chemical fate and multi-pathway human exposure model for Western Europe, IMPACT 2002, using data for PCDD/F congeners. PCDD/F congeners provide an illustration of the potential use of POPs (Persistent Organic Pollutant) data for the evaluation of such models. Based on available emission estimates, model predictions with and without spatial resolution are evaluated at three different stages against monitored data: at environmental contamination levels, food exposure concentration, and in terms of human intake fractions (iF): the fraction of an emission that is taken in by the population. The iF is approximately 3.5.10(-3) for emissions of dioxin in Western Europe. This iF compares well to the traditional non-spatial multi-media/-pathway model predictions of 3.9.10(-3) for the same region and to 2.10(-3) for the USA. Approximately 95% of the intake from Western European emissions occurs within the same region, 5% being transferred out of the region in terms of food contaminants and atmospheric advective transport.

A perspective on environmental models and QSARs

A general review is presented of the roles of QSARs and mass balance models as tools for assessing the environmental fate and effects of chemicals of commerce. It is argued that all such chemicals must be assessed using a consistent and transparent methodology that uses chemical property data derived from QSARs, or experimental determinations when possible and applies evaluative or region-specific environmental models. These data and models enable an assessment to be made of the key chemical features of persistence, bioaccumulation, potential for long-range transport and toxicity. The other key feature is quantity used or discharged to the environment. A taxonomy of environmental models is presented in which it is suggested that rather than develop a single comprehensive model, the aim should be to establish a set of coordinated and consistent models treating evaluative and real environmental systems at a variety of scales from local to global and including food web models, organism-specific models and human exposure and pharmacokinetic models. The concentrations derived from these models can then be compared with levels judged to be of toxic significance. A brief account is given of perceived QSAR needs in terms of partitioning, reactivity, transport and toxicity data to support these models.

A regionally segmented national scale multimedia contaminant fate model for Canada with GIS data input and display

Regional scale mass balance models are valuable tools for describing the fate of chemicals in areas with defined and fairly homogeneous environmental characteristics and chemical use patterns. These models often show that contaminant inflows from outside the region of interest are significant compared with local emissions. This is most likely for persistent chemicals and those that are efficiently transported in air or water. As a result regional levels of environmental contamination are controlled by external factors and meaningful evaluation requires assessment of contaminant fate in neighboring regions. A linked set of regional models thus has the potential to describe quantitatively the impact of chemical emissions over a wider geographic scale with significant spatial differences in environmental characteristics and chemical use patterns. We describe here a national scale contaiminant fate model for Canada based on the existing 24-region ChemCAN model. The ecological regions, which were previously treated individually, are linked with flows of air and water deduced from GIS analysis to provide a comprehensive description of contaminant fate over the entire country, including long-range transport between regions. The model is applied to describe the national-scale fate of three chemicals in Canada, benzene, trichloroethene, and diethylhexyl phthalate, exploiting GIS analysis for interpretation and presentation of model results. Agreement between predicted multimedia environmental concentrations and measured values is satisfactory for all three chemicals. In total this work represents an initial attempt to address the different processes of both linking a regional model and using GIS as a tool for data analysis and management.