A premature mortality target for the SDG for health is ageist

Premature Death as a Normative Concept

The practical goal of preventing premature death seems uncontroversial. But the term 'premature death' is vague with several, sometimes conflicting definitions. This ambiguity results in several conceptions with which not all will agree. Moreover, the normative rationale behind the goal of preventing premature deaths is masked by the operational definition of existing measures. In this article, we argue that 'premature death' should be recognized as a normative concept. We propose that normative theories should be used to justify measures of premature death to provide them with normative validity and public legitimacy.

Trends in premature avertable mortality from non-communicable diseases for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

The reduction by a third of premature non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality by 2030 is the ambitious target of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.4. However, the indicator is narrowly defined, including only four major NCDs (cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes, and chronic respiratory diseases) and only for people aged 30-70 years. This study focuses on premature avertable mortality from NCDs-premature deaths caused by NCDs that could be prevented through effective public policies and health interventions or amenable to high-quality health care-to assess trends at global, regional, and national levels using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017.

METHODS

We reviewed existing lists of NCD causes of death that are either preventable through public health policies and interventions or amenable to health care to create a list of avertable NCD causes of death, which was mapped to the GBD cause list. We estimated age-standardised years of life lost (YLL) per 100 000 population due to premature avertable mortality from NCDs, avertable NCD cause clusters, and non-avertable NCD causes by sex, location, and year and reported their 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We examined trends in age-standardised YLL due to avertable and non-avertable NCDs, assessed the progress of premature avertable mortality from NCDs in achieving SDG 3.4, and explored specific avertable NCD cause clusters that could make a substantial contribution to overall trends in premature mortality.

FINDINGS

Globally, premature avertable mortality from NCDs for both sexes combined declined -1·3% (95% UI -1·4 to -1·2) per year, from 12 855 years (11 809 to 14 051) in 1990 to 9008 years (8329 to 9756) in 2017. However, the absolute number of avertable NCD deaths increased 49·3% (95% UI 47·3 to 52·2) from 23·1 million (22·0-24·1) deaths in 1990 to 34·5 million (33·4 to 35·6) in 2017. Premature avertable mortality from NCDs reduced in every WHO region and in most countries and territories between 1990 and 2017. Despite these reductions, only the Western Pacific and European regions and 25 countries (most of which are high-income countries) are on track to achieve SDG target 3.4. Since 2017, there has been a global slowdown in the reduction of premature avertable mortality from NCDs. In 2017, high premature avertable mortality from NCDs was clustered in low-income and middle-income countries, mainly in the South-East Asia region, Eastern Mediterranean region, and African region. Most countries with large annual reductions in such mortality between 1990 and 2017 had achieved low levels of premature avertable mortality from NCDs by 2017. Some countries, the most populous examples being Afghanistan, the Central African Republic, Uzbekistan, Haiti, Mongolia, Turkmenistan, Pakistan, Ukraine, Laos, and Egypt, reported both an upward trend and high levels of premature avertable mortality from NCDs. Cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and chronic respiratory diseases have been the main drivers of the global and regional reduction in premature avertable mortality from NCDs, whereas premature mortality from substance use disorders, chronic kidney disease and acute glomerulonephritis, and diabetes have been increasing.

INTERPRETATION

Worldwide, there has been a substantial reduction in premature avertable mortality from NCDs, but progress has been uneven across populations. Countries vary substantially in current levels and trends and, hence, the extent to which they are on track to achieve SDG 3.4. By accounting for premature avertable mortality while avoiding arbitrary age cutoffs, premature avertable mortality from NCDs is a robust, comprehensive, and actionable indicator for quantifying and monitoring global and national progress towards NCD prevention and control.

FUNDING

None.

Investigation of multimorbidity and prevalent disease combinations in older Irish adults using network analysis and association rules

Multimorbidity (the presence of multiple medical conditions) is well known to increase with age. People with multimorbidities often have higher physical and functional decline as well as increased mortality. Despite growing evidence that integrated and collaborative care improves many undesirable outcomes of multimorbidity, the majority of health systems are based around treating individual diseases. A pattern analysis of comorbidities using network graphs and a novel use of association rules was conducted to investigate disease associations on 6101 Irish adults aged 50+. The complex network of morbidities and differences in the prevalence and interactions of these morbidities by sex was also assessed. Gender specific differences in disease prevalence was found for 22/31 medical conditions included in this study. Females had a more complex network of disease associations than males with strong associations found between arthritis, osteoporosis and thyroid issues among others. To assess the strength of these associations we provide probabilities of being diagnosed with a comorbid condition given the presence of an index morbidity for 639 pairwise combinations. This information can be used to guide clinicians in deciding which comorbidities should be incorporated into comprehensive assessments in addition to anticipating likely future morbidities and thus developing prevention strategies.

Correlation between noncommunicable disease mortality in people aged 30-69 years and those aged 70-89 years

Objective

To investigate whether the key metric for monitoring progress towards sustainable development goal target 3.4 that is measuring premature noncommunicable disease mortality (deaths among people aged 30–69 years), is ageist.

Methods

To examine the relationship between premature noncommunicable disease mortality and noncommunicable disease mortality in older people, a database of mortality rates for cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and diabetes in people aged 30 to 69 years and 70 to 89 years was compiled using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. The data covered 195 countries, six time-points and both sexes, giving 2340 instances. The World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) life-table method for the premature noncommunicable disease mortality metric was applied to the data.

Findings

There was a strong correlation between noncommunicable disease mortality patterns in the premature and older age groups, which suggests that measuring premature noncommunicable disease mortality is informative about such mortality in later life. Neither time nor geographical location had a substantial effect on this correlation. However, there were female-to-male differences in age-specific probabilities of death due to noncommunicable disease, implying that noncommunicable disease mortality should be assessed using a sex-disaggregated approach.

Conclusion

As the established WHO metric for premature noncommunicable disease mortality was predictive of noncommunicable disease mortality in older people, the metric should not be construed as ageist. Focusing resources on measuring premature noncommunicable disease mortality will be appropriate, particularly in settings without universal civil death registration. This approach should not prejudice the provision of health services throughout the life-course.

Global Burden of Disease and the Impact of Mental and Addictive Disorders

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This contribution reviews the newest empirical evidence regarding the burden of mental and addictive disorders and weighs their importance for global health in the first decades of the twenty-first century.

RECENT FINDINGS

Mental and addictive disorders affected more than 1 billion people globally in 2016. They caused 7% of all global burden of disease as measured in DALYs and 19% of all years lived with disability. Depression was associated with most DALYs for both sexes, with higher rates in women as all other internalizing disorders, whereas other disorders such as substance use disorders had higher rates in men. Mental and addictive disorders affect a significant portion of the global population with high burden, in particular in high- and upper-middle-income countries. The relative share of these disorders has increased in the past decades, in part due to stigma and lack of treatment. Future research needs to better analyze the role of mental and addictive disorders in shifts of life expectancy.

NCD Countdown 2030: worldwide trends in non-communicable disease mortality and progress towards Sustainable Development Goal target 3.4

The third UN High-Level Meeting on Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) on Sept 27, 2018, will review national and global progress towards the prevention and control of NCDs, and provide an opportunity to renew, reinforce, and enhance commitments to reduce their burden. NCD Countdown 2030 is an independent collaboration to inform policies that aim to reduce the worldwide burden of NCDs, and to ensure accountability towards this aim. In 2016, an estimated 40·5 million (71%) of the 56·9 million worldwide deaths were from NCDs. Of these, an estimated 1·7 million (4% of NCD deaths) occurred in people younger than 30 years of age, 15·2 million (38%) in people aged between 30 years and 70 years, and 23·6 million (58%) in people aged 70 years and older. An estimated 32·2 million NCD deaths (80%) were due to cancers, cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes, and another 8·3 million (20%) were from other NCDs. Women in 164 (88%) and men in 165 (89%) of 186 countries and territories had a higher probability of dying before 70 years of age from an NCD than from communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional conditions combined. Globally, the lowest risks of NCD mortality in 2016 were seen in high-income countries in Asia-Pacific, western Europe, and Australasia, and in Canada. The highest risks of dying from NCDs were observed in low-income and middle-income countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, and, for men, in central Asia and eastern Europe. Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4-a one-third reduction, relative to 2015 levels, in the probability of dying between 30 years and 70 years of age from cancers, cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes by 2030-will be achieved in 35 countries (19%) for women, and 30 (16%) for men, if these countries maintain or surpass their 2010-2016 rate of decline in NCD mortality. Most of these are high-income countries with already-low NCD mortality, and countries in central and eastern Europe. An additional 50 (27%) countries for women and 35 (19%) for men are projected to achieve such a reduction in the subsequent decade, and thus, with slight acceleration of decline, could meet the 2030 target. 86 (46%) countries for women and 97 (52%) for men need implementation of policies that substantially increase the rates of decline. Mortality from the four NCDs included in SDG target 3.4 has stagnated or increased since 2010 among women in 15 (8%) countries and men in 24 (13%) countries. NCDs and age groups other than those included in the SDG target 3.4 are responsible for a higher risk of death in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Substantial reduction of NCD mortality requires policies that considerably reduce tobacco and alcohol use and blood pressure, and equitable access to efficacious and high-quality preventive and curative care for acute and chronic NCDs.

Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015).

METHODS

We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices.

FINDINGS

In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59·3 (95% uncertainty interval 56·8-61·8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85·5 (84·2-86·5) in Iceland to 20·4 (15·4-24·9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r2=0·88) and the MDG index (r2=0·92), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r2=0·79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7·9 (IQR 5·0-10·4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10·0 [6·7-13·1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5·5 [2·1-8·9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened.

INTERPRETATION

GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.