A simulation model for studying the role of pre-slaughter factors on the exposure of beef carcasses to human microbial hazards

"Preharvest" Food Safety for Escherichia coli O157 and Other Pathogenic Shiga Toxin-Producing Strains

Preharvest food safety refers to the concept of reducing the rates of contamination of unprocessed foods with food-borne disease pathogens in order to reduce human exposure and disease. This article addresses the search for effective preharvest food safety practices for application to live cattle to reduce both contamination of foods of bovine origin and environmental contamination resulting from cattle. Although this research has resulted in several practices that significantly decrease contamination by Escherichia coli O157, the effects are limited in magnitude and unlikely to affect the incidence of human disease without much wider application and considerably higher efficacy than is presently apparent. Infection of cattle with E. coli O157 is transient and seasonally variable, likely resulting from a complex web of exposures. It is likely that better identification of the true maintenance reservoir of this agent and related Shiga toxin-producing E. coli is required to develop more effective control measures for these important food- and waterborne disease agents.

Saltelli Global Sensitivity Analysis and Simulation Modelling to Identify Intervention Strategies to Reduce the Prevalence of Escherichia coli O157 Contaminated Beef Carcasses

Introduction

Strains of Shiga-toxin producing Escherichia coli O157 (STEC O157) are important foodborne pathogens in humans, and outbreaks of illness have been associated with consumption of undercooked beef. Here, we determine the most effective intervention strategies to reduce the prevalence of STEC O157 contaminated beef carcasses using a modelling approach.

Method

A computational model simulated events and processes in the beef harvest chain. Information from empirical studies was used to parameterise the model. Variance-based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using the Saltelli method identified variables with the greatest influence on the prevalence of STEC O157 contaminated carcasses. Following a baseline scenario (no interventions), a series of simulations systematically introduced and tested interventions based on influential variables identified by repeated Saltelli GSA, to determine the most effective intervention strategy.

Results

Transfer of STEC O157 from hide or gastro-intestinal tract to carcass (improved abattoir hygiene) had the greatest influence on the prevalence of contaminated carcases. Due to interactions between inputs (identified by Saltelli GSA), combinations of interventions based on improved abattoir hygiene achieved a greater reduction in maximum prevalence than would be expected from an additive effect of single interventions. The most effective combination was improved abattoir hygiene with vaccination, which achieved a greater than ten-fold decrease in maximum prevalence compared to the baseline scenario.

Conclusion

Study results suggest that effective interventions to reduce the prevalence of STEC O157 contaminated carcasses should initially be based on improved abattoir hygiene. However, the effect of improved abattoir hygiene on the distribution of STEC O157 concentration on carcasses is an important information gap—further empirical research is required to determine whether reduced prevalence of contaminated carcasses is likely to result in reduced incidence of STEC O157 associated illness in humans. This is the first use of variance-based GSA to assess the drivers of STEC O157 contamination of beef carcasses.

Use of multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis to evaluate Escherichia coli O157 subtype distribution and transmission dynamics following natural exposure on a closed beef feedlot facility

To better understand the epizootiology of Escherichia coli O157:H7 among cattle, all E. coli O157 isolates recovered on a research feedlot during a single feeding period were characterized by multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA). Three distinct MLVA subtypes (A, B, C), accounting for 24%, 15%, and 64% of total isolates, respectively, were identified. Subtypes A and B were isolated at the initiation of sampling, but their prevalence waned and subtype C, first isolated on the third sampling date, became the predominant subtype on the feedlot. Supershedding events, however, occurred with equal frequency for all three MLVA-types. Using a multilevel logistic regression model, we investigated whether the odds of shedding subtype C relative to subtypes A or B were associated with time, diet, or the presence of a penmate shedding high numbers of subtype C. Only time and exposure to an animal shedding MLVA-type C at 10³ colony-forming units or greater in the pen at the time of sampling were significantly associated with increased shedding of subtype C. High-level shedding of those E. coli O157 subtypes better suited for survival in the environment and/or in the host appear to play a significant role in the development of predominant E. coli O157 subtypes. Supershedding events alone are neither required nor sufficient to drive the epidemiology of specific E. coli O157 subtypes. Additional factors are necessary to direct successful on-farm transmission of E. coli O157.

Preharvest control of Escherichia coli O157 in cattle1

Bovine manure is an important source of Escherichia coli O157 contamination of the environment and foods; therefore, effective interventions targeted at reducing the prevalence and magnitude of fecal E. coli O157 excretion by live cattle (preharvest) are desirable. Preharvest intervention methods can be grouped into 3 categories: 1) exposure reduction strategies, 2) exclusion strategies, and 3) direct antipathogen strategies. Exposure reduction involves environmental management targeted at reducing bovine exposure to E. coli O157 through biosecurity and environmental niche management such as feed and drinking water hygiene, reduced exposure to insects or wildlife, and improved cleanliness of the bedding or pen floor. In the category of exclusion, we group vaccination and dietary modifications such as selection of specific feed components; feeding of prebiotics, probiotics, or both; and supplementation with competitive exclusion cultures to limit proliferation of E. coli O157 in or on exposed animals. Direct antipathogen strategies include treatment with sodium chlorate, antibiotics, bacteriophages, in addition to washing of animals before slaughter. Presently, only 1 preharvest control for E. coli O157 in cattle has been effective and has gained widespread adoption-the feeding probiotic Lactobacillus acidophilus. More research into the effectiveness of parallel and simultaneous application of 1 or more preharvest control strategies, as well as the identification of new pre-harvest control methods, may provide practical means to substantially reduce the incidence of human E. coli O157-related illness by intervening at the farm level.

Assessing the efficacy of within-animal control strategies against E. coli O157: A simulation study

A stochastic simulation model was used to assess the efficacy of potential measures to control the levels of Escherichia coli O157 within the bovine host. The model described E. coli O157 population sizes at several sites along the bovine gut and therefore only interventions that operate at an individual animal level could be evaluated. In order to use the model to evaluate the control strategies, it was necessary to make assumptions about how each strategy affected E. coli O157 populations in vivo. The within-animal conditions under these control strategies were modelled by adjusting the growth rates of E. coli O157 at specific sites of interest in the gut, based on these assumptions. The model simulated the population dynamics of an initial dose of E. coli O157 inoculated into an animal in the presence of inhibitory probiotics or antibiotics, bactericidal antibiotics or probiotics, and following fasting. Of the control strategies considered, the use of inhibitory probiotics appeared most promising and continued development of a suitable product is to be encouraged.

Ten years of bovine virus diarrhoea virus (BVDV) control in Norway: a cost-benefit analysis

A retrospective cost-benefit analysis was carried out on the Norwegian bovine virus diarrhoea (BVD) control and eradication strategy, for the years 1993-2003. Information regarding the control cost input parameters was gathered from the cattle industry (TINE Norwegian Dairies, GENO Breeding and AI association, and GILDE Norwegian Meat), The National Animal Health Authorities and The Veterinary Institute. We accounted for variable costs (both direct costs associated with the control, and those costs carried by the farmers as a consequence of the control program). The benefit was estimated as the difference between the assumed losses without control - represented overall as 10% increase of the observed 1993 BVD virus infection level - and the observed losses during the control period. An estimate of the financial losses associated with the BVD virus (BVDV) infection was based on studies of the herd level effects on health, reproduction, and production in dairy herds with evidence of recent BVDV infection. We used a stochastic simulation model to account for the total uncertainty in both the control cost and financial loss estimates. The annual net benefits over the 10 years of BVD control were discounted to a 1993 net present value (NPV). The median NPV of the BVD control, nationally, was estimated at 130 million NOK with a distribution of the NPV ranging from +51 to +201 million NOK (5th and 95th percentiles, respectively). Out of the total control costs the farmers and the farmer-owned industries (the co-operatives) had carried about 62% of these costs; however, the farmers were also the main beneficiaries. The Norwegian experience shows a robust cost-efficiency for a BVDV eradication strategy; this stands in sharp contrast to earlier studies where the results were not supportive. Even though every cattle population and country is unique, the Norwegian findings and experiences should have wider implications.

Quantitative microbial risk assessment exemplified by Staphylococcus aureus in unripened cheese made from raw milk

This paper discusses some of the developments and problems in the field of quantitative microbial risk assessment, especially exposure assessment and probabilistic risk assessment models. To illustrate some of the topics, an initial risk assessment was presented, in which predictive microbiology and survey data were combined with probabilistic modelling to simulate the level of Staphylococcus aureus in unripened cheese made from raw milk at the time of consumption. Due to limited data and absence of dose-response models, a complete risk assessment was not possible. Instead, the final level of bacteria was used as a proxy for the potential enterotoxin level, and thus the potential for causing illness. The assessment endpoint selected for evaluation was the probability that a cheese contained at least 6 log cfu S. aureus g(-1) at the time of consumption; the probability of an unsatisfactory cheese, P(uc). The initial level of S. aureus, followed by storage temperature had the largest influence on P(uc) at the two pH-values investigated. P(uc) decreased with decreasing pH and was up to a factor of 30 lower in low pH cheeses due to a slower growth rate. Of the model assumptions examined, i.e. the proportion of enterotoxigenic strains, the level of S. aureus in non-detect cheeses, the temperature limit for toxin production, and the magnitude and variability of the threshold for an unsatisfactory cheese, it was the latter that had the greatest impact on P(uc). The uncertainty introduced by this assumption was in most cases less than a factor of 36, the same order of magnitude as the maximum variability due to pH. Several data gaps were identified and suggestions were made to improve the initial risk assessment, which is valid only to the extent that the limited data reflected the true conditions and that the assumptions made were valid. Despite the limitations, a quantitative approach was useful to gain insights and to evaluate several factors that influence the potential risk and to make some inferences with relevance to risk management. For instance, the possible effect of using starter cultures in the cheese making process to improve the safety of these products.

Cattle water troughs as reservoirs of Escherichia coli O157

Environmental survival of Escherichia coli O157 may play an important role in the persistence and dissemination of this organism on farms. The survival of culturable and infectious E. coli O157 was studied using microcosms simulating cattle water troughs. Culturable E. coli O157 survived for at least 245 days in the microcosm sediments. Furthermore, E. coli O157 strains surviving more than 6 months in contaminated microcosms were infectious to a group of 10-week-old calves. Fecal excretion of E. coli O157 by these calves persisted for 87 days after challenge. Water trough sediments contaminated with feces from cattle excreting E. coli O157 may serve as a long-term reservoir of this organism on farms and a source of infection for cattle.

Pre-slaughter control of Escherichia coli O157 in beef cattle: a simulation study

A stochastic simulation model was used to assess the benefit of measures implemented in the pre-slaughter period that are aimed at reducing the contamination of beef carcasses with Shiga-like-toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157. The scenario studied was based on an abattoir processing approximately 1000 head of lot-fed cattle per day. Input assumptions were described using probability distributions to reflect uncertainty in their true values. Control measures that were assessed were based on either a reduction in herd prevalence of infection, reduction in opportunity for cross-contamination in the processing plant by re-ordering of the slaughter queue, reduction of concentration of E. coli O157 in fresh faeces, or a reduction in the amount of faeces, mud and bedding ('tag') transferred from the hide to the carcass. Some control measures evaluated were hypothetical in nature and were included to assist with the planning of research priorities. Simulations suggested that the greatest potential impact is associated with vaccination and with an agent that reduces shedding E. coli O157 in faeces. Knowledge of herd-test results obtained by testing a sample of animals from the herd provides only a minor advantage in control programmes, although application of a rapid test to all animals in all lots might be of some benefit. Under most scenarios, there is ample opportunity for cross-contamination to occur within the slaughter plant as a result of early entry of cattle contaminated with E. coli O157. An industry-wide reduction in the amount of tag attached to hides and addition of a source of cattle having a prolonged average fasting time were not predicted to have a large impact on mean amount of carcass contamination with E. coli O157.