Global climate change: An infectious disease perspective

Spatial-temporal characteristics of AIDS incidences in Mainland China

OBJECT

Revealed the spatial-temporal patterns of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) incidences in Mainland China.

METHODS

Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) technique was applied to analyze the major spatial distribution modes and the temporal changes of AIDS incidences in Mainland China during 2002-2017.

RESULTS

The annual average AIDS incidences increased from 0.06 per 100 000 in 2002 to 4.15 per 100 000 in 2017, with an annual average increase of 0.31 per 100 000. The southwest regions were high-incidence areas, as well as Xinjiang province in the northwest. There were two typical spatial modes. EOF 1 represented an isodirectional spatial pattern that the incidences were relatively high in general, and the fluctuation ranges were relatively high in the southwest and northeast. EOF 2 represented a reverse spatial pattern that the incidences were relatively high (or low) in Guangxi, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Shanghai, and Henan, yet were relatively low (or high) in the remaining regions.

CONCLUSION

The AIDS incidences in Mainland China were relatively low during 2002-2010, yet were kept in a relatively high level since 2012. The prevention and control of AIDS need further development, especially in the southwest regions.

Climate change and epidemics in Chinese history: A multi-scalar analysis

This study seeks to provide further insight regarding the relationship of climate-epidemics in Chinese history through a multi-scalar analysis. Based on 5961 epidemic incidents in China during 1370-1909 CE we applied Ordinary Least Square regression and panel data regression to verify the climate-epidemic nexus over a range of spatial scales (country, macro region, and province). Results show that epidemic outbreaks were negatively correlated with the temperature in historical China at various geographic levels, while a stark reduction in the correlational strength was observed at lower geographic levels. Furthermore, cooling drove up epidemic outbreaks in northern and central China, where population pressure reached a clear threshold for amplifying the vulnerability of epidemic outbreaks to climate change. Our findings help to illustrate the modifiable areal unit and the uncertain geographic context problems in climate-epidemics research. Researchers need to consider the scale effect in the course of statistical analyses, which are currently predominantly conducted on a national/single scale; and also the importance of how the study area is delineated, an issue which is rarely discussed in the climate-epidemics literature. Future research may leverage our results and provide a cross-analysis with those derived from spatial analysis.

Human adenovirus spread, rainfalls, and the occurrence of gastroenteritis cases in a Brazilian basin

Climate variables may interfere with the environmental persistence and spread of pathogenic microorganisms. This study aimed to investigate the occurrence of human adenovirus (HAdV) and total and thermotolerant coliforms in treated and untreated water and report gastroenteritis cases in seven cities located in the hydrographic basin of the Sinos River (HBSR), Southern Brazil. The data on water quality from samples collected at catchment areas of HBSR from March to December 2011 were compared with precipitation records, virus detection rates and viral loads, and information on enteric diseases among residents of the region. There was a marked increase in precipitation intensity in April, July, and August and a decrease in May and November. The number of HAdV genome copies (gc) in untreated water ranged from 2.1×10(8) gc/L in June to 7.8×10(1) gc/L in December, and in treated water, from 6.3×10(4) gc/L in September to 4.1×10(1) gc/L in November. The most probable number (MPN) of total coliforms ranged from 5×10(1) MPN/100 mL in December to 2.4×10(5) MPN/100 mL in July, and thermotolerant coliforms ranged from 1×10(1) MPN/100 mL in August to 6.9×10(4) MPN/100 mL in July. A total of 79 hospital admissions due to gastroenteritis were registered in the cities studied. The results for coliforms in untreated water demonstrate deficits in sanitation and wastewater treatment. These findings also indicate a possible relationship between the occurrence of rainfalls after dry periods and an increase in the number of gastroenteritis cases and in HAdV load quantified in surface water collected for conventional potabilization.

Infectious disease pathology

The anatomic pathologist performs an important role in the diagnosis or exclusion of infectious diseases. The morphologic interpretation of biopsies and cytologic preparations allows for the definitive establishment or exclusion of a wide variety of diseases. Once the pathologist has determined that a disease is likely to be due to an infection and has characterized the inflammatory response, associated microorganisms or viral-associated cytopathic effects should be recorded. Although some microorganisms or their cytopathic effects may be clearly visible on routine hematoxylin and eosin-stained sections, additional histochemical stains are often needed for their complete characterization. Highly specific molecular techniques, such as immunohistochemistry, in situ hybridization, and nucleic acid amplification, may be needed in certain instances to establish the diagnosis of infection. Through appropriate morphologic diagnoses and interlaboratory communication and collaboration, the anatomic pathologist contributes greatly to the diagnosis and treatment of infectious diseases.