Modelling the effect of surveillance programmes on spread of bovine herpesvirus 1 between certified cattle herds

Vaccination of poultry against highly pathogenic avian influenza - Part 2. Surveillance and mitigation measures

Selecting appropriate diagnostic methods that take account of the type of vaccine used is important when implementing a vaccination programme against highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). If vaccination is effective, a decreased viral load is expected in the samples used for diagnosis, making molecular methods with high sensitivity the best choice. Although serological methods can be reasonably sensitive, they may produce results that are difficult to interpret. In addition to routine molecular monitoring, it is recommended to conduct viral isolation, genetic sequencing and phenotypic characterisation of any HPAI virus detected in vaccinated flocks to detect escape mutants early. Following emergency vaccination, various surveillance options based on virological testing of dead birds ('bucket sampling') at defined intervals were assessed to be effective for early detection of HPAIV and prove disease freedom in vaccinated populations. For ducks, virological or serological testing of live birds was assessed as an effective strategy. This surveillance could be also applied in the peri-vaccination zone on vaccinated establishments, while maintaining passive surveillance in unvaccinated chicken layers and turkeys, and weekly bucket sampling in unvaccinated ducks. To demonstrate disease freedom with > 99% confidence and to detect HPAI virus sufficiently early following preventive vaccination, monthly virological testing of all dead birds up to 15 per flock, coupled with passive surveillance in both vaccinated and unvaccinated flocks, is recommended. Reducing the sampling intervals increases the sensitivity of early detection up to 100%. To enable the safe movement of vaccinated poultry during emergency vaccination, laboratory examinations in the 72 h prior to the movement can be considered as a risk mitigation measure, in addition to clinical inspection; sampling results from existing surveillance activities carried out in these 72 h could be used. In this Opinion, several schemes are recommended to enable the safe movement of vaccinated poultry following preventive vaccination.

Control programs for infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR) in European countries: an overview

Infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR), caused by Bovine alphaherpesvirus 1 (BoHV-1), is a disease of cattle responsible for significant economic losses worldwide. IBR is under certain communitarian regulations. Every member state can approve its own national IBR control program for the entire territory – or part of it – and can demand additional guarantees for bovids destined to its territory; therefore, every member state can be officially declared as entirely or partly IBR-free. The aim of this review is to provide an overview of IBR control and eradication programs in European countries. BoHV-1 control schemes were first introduced in the late 1970s, mainly in Northern and Central Europe. Depending on the seroprevalence rate, control strategies rely on identification and removal of seropositive animals or the use of glycoprotein E (gE)-deleted marker vaccines in infected herds. The implementation of a novel law for disease eradication at the EU level and of a European IBR data flow could make the goal of IBR eradication in all European countries easier to achieve.

Mathematical models used to inform study design or surveillance systems in infectious diseases: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Mathematical models offer the possibility to investigate the infectious disease dynamics over time and may help in informing design of studies. A systematic review was performed in order to determine to what extent mathematical models have been incorporated into the process of planning studies and hence inform study design for infectious diseases transmitted between humans and/or animals.

METHODS

We searched Ovid Medline and two trial registry platforms (Cochrane, WHO) using search terms related to infection, mathematical model, and study design from the earliest dates to October 2016. Eligible publications and registered trials included mathematical models (compartmental, individual-based, or Markov) which were described and used to inform the design of infectious disease studies. We extracted information about the investigated infection, population, model characteristics, and study design.

RESULTS

We identified 28 unique publications but no registered trials. Focusing on compartmental and individual-based models we found 12 observational/surveillance studies and 11 clinical trials. Infections studied were equally animal and human infectious diseases for the observational/surveillance studies, while all but one between humans for clinical trials. The mathematical models were used to inform, amongst other things, the required sample size (n = 16), the statistical power (n = 9), the frequency at which samples should be taken (n = 6), and from whom (n = 6).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the fact that mathematical models have been advocated to be used at the planning stage of studies or surveillance systems, they are used scarcely. With only one exception, the publications described theoretical studies, hence, not being utilised in real studies.

Transmission dynamics of lumpy skin disease in Ethiopia

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a severe disease of cattle caused by a Capripoxvirus and often caused epidemics in Ethiopia and many other countries. This study was undertaken to quantify the transmission between animals and to estimate the infection reproduction ratio in a predominantly mixed crop–livestock system and in intensive commercial herd types. The transmission parameters were based on a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) epidemic model with environmental transmission and estimated using generalized linear models. The transmission parameters were estimated using a survival rate of infectious virus in the environment equal to 0·325 per day, a value based on the best-fitting statistical model. The transmission rate parameter between animals was 0·072 (95% CI 0·068–0·076) per day in the crop–livestock production system, whereas this transmission rate in intensive production system was 0·076 (95% CI 0·068–0·085) per day. The reproduction ratio (R) of LSD between animals in the crop–livestock production system was 1·07, whereas it was 1·09 between animals in the intensive production system. The calculated R provides a baseline against which various control options can be assessed for efficacy.

Epidemiological performance and subsequent costs of different surveillance strategies to control bovine herpesvirus type 1 in dairy farms

This study aimed at comparing the surveillance program of bovine herpesvirus type 1 (BHV1) as laid down by EU Decision 2004/558/EC and 2007/584/EC ('conventional design') with an alternative design. The alternative design was based on monthly bulk-milk testing, clinical surveillance and a risk-based component that involves testing of animals that are purchased from non-free cattle herds. Scenario-tree analyses were carried out to determine sensitivities of the surveillance system (and its components) and the monthly confidence of freedom on herd-level. Also, the expected costs per surveillance design and components thereof were calculated. Results showed that the conventional (EU) and alternative surveillance designs to obtain a BHV1-free status performed equally well in terms of sensitivity. However, total costs per cattle herd to obtain a free status were highest in the conventional design. In an endemic situation and with a within-herd design prevalence of 10%, the conventional design led to a varying probability of freedom ranging from 99.6% to 100% per month. With the alternative design, in this situation, a constant probability of freedom of >99.9% per month was found. In a disease-free situation, both designs performed equally well (probability of freedom >99.9% per month). The yearly costs per farm for monitoring the disease-free status decreased by approximately 25% in the alternative design. The alternative strategy based on monthly bulk-milk monitoring therefore was deemed most cost-effective. This study showed that the surveillance regime to attain and maintain a BHV1-free status as described by EU-legislation can be improved to reduce the monitoring costs without reduction of the system's sensitivity, given a within-herd design prevalence of 10%. The assessment of various surveillance designs could be highly useful to support decision-making towards a more risk-based approach of animal health surveillance.

Evaluation of temporal surveillance system sensitivity and freedom from bovine viral diarrhea in Danish dairy herds using scenario tree modelling

BACKGROUND

The temporal sensitivity of the surveillance system (TemSSe) for Bovine Viral Diarrhea (BVD) in Danish dairy herds was evaluated. Currently, the Danish antibody blocking ELISA is used to test quarterly bulk tank milk (BTM). To optimize the surveillance system as an early warning system, we considered the possibility of using the SVANOVIR ELISA, as this test has been shown to detect BVD-positive herds earlier than the blocking ELISA in BTM tests. Information from data (2010) and outputs from two published stochastic models were fed into a stochastic scenario tree to estimate the TemSSe. For that purpose we considered: the risk of BVD introduction into the dairy population, the ELISA used and the high risk period (HRP) from BVD introduction to testing (at 90 or 365 days). The effect of introducing one persistently infected (PI) calf or one transiently infected (TI) milking cow into 1 (or 8) dairy herd(s) was investigated. Additionally we estimated the confidence in low (PLow) herd prevalence (<8/4109 infected herds) and the confidence in complete freedom (PFree) from BVD (< 1/4109).

RESULTS

The TemSSe, the PLow, and the PFree were higher, when tests were performed 365 days after BVD introduction, than after 90 days. Estimates were usually higher for the SVANOVIR than for the blocking ELISA, and when a PI rather than a TI was introduced into the herd(s). For instance, with the current system, the median TemSSe was 64.5 %, 90 days after a PI calf was introduced into eight dairy herds. The related median PLow was 72.5 %. When a PI calf was introduced into one herd the median TemSSe was 12.1 %, while the related PFree was 51.6 %. With the SVANOVIR ELISA these estimates were 99.0 %; 98.9 %, 43.7 % and 62.4 %, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The replacement of the blocking ELISA with the SVANOVIR could increase the TemSSe, the PLow and PFree remarkably. Those results could be used to optimize the Danish BVD surveillance system. Furthermore, the approach proposed in this study, for including the effect of the HRP within the scenario tree methodology, could be applied to optimize early warning surveillance systems of different animal diseases.

Challenges for bovine viral diarrhoea virus antibody detection in bulk milk by antibody enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays due to changes in milk production levels

BACKGROUND

Bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) is considered eradicated from Denmark. Currently, very few (if any) Danish cattle herds could be infected with BVD virus (BVDV). The Danish antibody blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) has been successfully used during the Danish BVD eradication program, initiated in 1994. During the last decade, the cattle herd size has increased while the prevalence of BVDV has decreased. In this study, we investigated how these changes could affect the performance of the Danish blocking ELISA and of the SVANOVIR® BVDV-Ab indirect ELISA. The latter has successfully been used to eradicate BVD in Sweden. Data (2003-2010) on changes in median herd size and milk production levels, occurrence of viremic animals and bulk milk surveillance were analysed. Additionally, the Danish blocking ELISA and the SVANOVIR ELISA were compared analyzing milk and serum samples. The prevalence of antibody positive milking cows that could be detected by each test was estimated, by diluting positive individual milk samples and making artificial milk pools.

RESULTS

During the study period, the median herd size increased from 74 (2003) to 127 cows (2010), while the prevalence of BVDV infected herds decreased from 0.51 to 0.02 %. The daily milk yield contribution of a single seropositive cow to the entire daily bulk milk was reduced from 1.61 % in 2003 to 0.95 % in 2010 due to the increased herd size. It was observed that antibody levels in bulk milk decreased at national level. Moreover, we found that when testing bulk milk, the SVANOVIR® BVDV-Ab can detect a lower prevalence of seropositive lactating cows, compared to the Danish blocking ELISA (0.78 % vs. 50 %). Values in the SVANOVIR® BVDV-Ab better relate to low concentrations of antibody positive milk (R(2) = 94-98 %), than values in the blocking ELISA (R(2) = 23-75 %). For sera, the two ELISAs performed equally well.

CONCLUSIONS

The SVANOVIR ELISA is recommended for analysis of bulk milk samples in the current Danish situation, since infected dairy herds e.g. due to import of infected cattle can be detected shortly after BVDV introduction, when only few lactating cows have seroconverted. In sera, the two ELISAs can be used interchangeably.

Risk based surveillance for early detection of low pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in layer chickens

Current knowledge does not allow the prediction of when low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIV) of the H5 and H7 subtypes infecting poultry will mutate to their highly pathogenic phenotype (HPAIV). This mutation may already take place in the first infected flock; hence early detection of LPAIV outbreaks will reduce the likelihood of pathogenicity mutations and large epidemics. The objective of this study was the development of a model for the design and evaluation of serological-surveillance programmes, with a particular focus on early detection of LPAIV infections in layer chicken flocks. Early detection is defined as the detection of an infected flock before it infects on average more than one other flock (between-flock reproduction ratio Rf<1), hence a LPAI introduction will be detected when only one or a few other flocks are infected. We used a mathematical model that investigates the required sample size and sampling frequency for early detection by taking into account the LPAIV within- and between-flock infection dynamics as well as the diagnostic performance of the serological test used. Since layer flocks are the target of the surveillance, we also explored whether the use of eggs, is a good alternative to sera, as sample commodity. The model was used to refine the current Dutch serological-surveillance programme. LPAIV transmission-risk maps were constructed and used to target a risk-based surveillance strategy. In conclusion, we present a model that can be used to explore different sampling strategies, which combined with a cost-benefit analysis would enhance surveillance programmes for low pathogenic avian influenza.

Stochastic simulation modeling to determine time to detect Bovine Viral Diarrhea antibodies in bulk tank milk

A stochastic simulation model was developed to estimate the time from introduction of Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus (BVDV) in a herd to detection of antibodies in bulk tank milk (BTM) samples using three ELISAs. We assumed that antibodies could be detected, after a fixed threshold prevalence of seroconverted milking cows was reached in the herd. Different thresholds were set for each ELISA, according to previous studies. For each test, antibody detection was simulated in small (70 cows), medium (150 cows) and large (320 cows) herds. The assays included were: (1) the Danish blocking ELISA, (2) the SVANOVIR(®)BVDV-Ab ELISA, and (3) the ELISA BVD/MD p80 Institute Pourquier. The validation of the model was mainly carried out by comparing the predicted incidence of persistently infected (PI) calves and the predicted detection time, with records from a BVD infected herd. Results showed that the SVANOVIR, which was the most efficient ELISA, could detect antibodies in the BTM of a large herd 280 days (95% prediction interval: 218; 568) after a transiently infected (TI) milking cow has been introduced into the herd. The estimated time to detection after introduction of one PI calf was 111 days (44; 605). With SVANOVIR ELISA the incidence of PIs and dead born calves could be limited and the impact of the disease on the animal welfare and income of farmers (before detection) could be minimized. The results from the simulation modeling can be used to improve the current Danish BVD surveillance program in detecting early infected herds.

Epidemiology and control of bovine herpesvirus 1 infection in Europe

Bovine herpesvirus 1 (BHV-1) causes infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR), infectious pustular vulvovaginitis, abortion and balanoposthitis, as well as neurological and systemic disease in cattle. The virus is endemic in cattle populations worldwide although in Europe six countries and several regions in other countries have achieved 'IBR-free' status by implementing control measures. According to European Union (EU) directives, all member states must comply with specific requirements related to BHV-1 infection status in semen and embryos. The requirement that 'IBR-free' states restrict the importation of cattle from endemically infected regions has motivated several European countries to instigate disease eradication programmes. Despite such control measures within the EU, outbreaks of IBR persist in 'IBR-free' states contiguous with infected countries. This review presents a summary of recent research on the epidemiology of BHV-1, highlights the control measures and surveillance systems in place, and discusses the challenges facing eradication schemes.

Using egg production data to quantify within-flock transmission of low pathogenic avian influenza virus in commercial layer chickens

Even though low pathogenic avian influenza viruses (LPAIv) affect the poultry industry of several countries in the world, information about their transmission characteristics in poultry is sparse. Outbreak reports of LPAIv in layer chickens have described drops in egg production that appear to be correlated with the virus transmission dynamics. The objective of this study was to use egg production data from LPAIv infected layer flocks to quantify the within-flock transmission parameters of the virus. Egg production data from two commercial layer chicken flocks which were infected with an H7N3 LPAIv were used for this study. In addition, an isolate of the H7N3 LPAIv causing these outbreaks was used in a transmission experiment. The field and experimental estimates showed that this is a virus with high transmission characteristics. Furthermore, with the field method, the day of introduction of the virus into the flock was estimated. The method here presented uses compartmental models that assume homogeneous mixing. This method is, therefore, best suited to study transmission in commercial flocks with a litter (floor-reared) housing system. It would also perform better, when used to study transmission retrospectively, after the outbreak has finished and there is egg production data from recovered chickens. This method cannot be used when a flock was affected with a LPAIv with low transmission characteristics (R(0)<2), since the drop in egg production would be low and likely to be confounded with the expected decrease in production due to aging of the flock. Because only two flocks were used for this analysis, this study is a preliminary basis for a proof of principle that transmission parameters of LPAIv infections in layer chicken flocks could be quantified using the egg production data from affected flocks.

Evaluating surveillance strategies for the early detection of low pathogenicity avian influenza infections

In recent years, the early detection of low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) viruses in poultry has become increasingly important, given their potential to mutate into highly pathogenic viruses. However, evaluations of LPAI surveillance have mainly focused on prevalence and not on the ability to act as an early warning system. We used a simulation model based on data from Italian LPAI epidemics in turkeys to evaluate different surveillance strategies in terms of their performance as early warning systems. The strategies differed in terms of sample size, sampling frequency, diagnostic tests, and whether or not active surveillance (i.e., routine laboratory testing of farms) was performed, and were also tested under different epidemiological scenarios. We compared surveillance strategies by simulating within-farm outbreaks. The output measures were the proportion of infected farms that are detected and the farm reproduction number (R_h). The first one provides an indication of the sensitivity of the surveillance system to detect within-farm infections, whereas R_h reflects the effectiveness of outbreak detection (i.e., if detection occurs soon enough to bring an epidemic under control). Increasing the sampling frequency was the most effective means of improving the timeliness of detection (i.e., it occurs earlier), whereas increasing the sample size increased the likelihood of detection. Surveillance was only effective in preventing an epidemic if actions were taken within two days of sampling. The strategies were not affected by the quality of the diagnostic test, although performing both serological and virological assays increased the sensitivity of active surveillance. Early detection of LPAI outbreaks in turkeys can be achieved by increasing the sampling frequency for active surveillance, though very frequent sampling may not be sustainable in the long term. We suggest that, when no LPAI virus is circulating yet and there is a low risk of virus introduction, a less frequent sampling approach might be admitted, provided that the surveillance is intensified as soon as the first outbreak is detected.

Epidemiologically non-feasible singleton reactors at the final stage of BoHV1 eradication: serological evidence of BoHV2 cross-reactivity

A voluntary marker-independent Bovine Herpesvirus 1 (BoHV1) eradication program started in 1986; in 1998 it changed to a compulsory one. Certification of free regions in European member states is based on Article 10 of directive 64/432/EEC. According to this rule Bavaria is listed as free of BoHV1 since October 2011. Surveillance of BoHV1-free dairy cattle farms is currently performed with quarterly bulk-milk testing. Non-negative bulk-milk results must be confirmed by blood tests in cattle older than nine months. An increased regional rate of non-negative bulk-milk samples and the subsequent detection of epidemiologically non-feasible singleton BoHV1-reactors by analysis of blood were observed at the final stage of eradication in southwest Bavaria. Nineteen case farms (734 animals) defined by singleton reactors born at least two years after certification of the farms as BoHV1-free, 23 negative control (NC) farms (NC I: 321 animals) from the same region, 11 NC-farms (NC II: 423 animals) from an already-certified Article 10 region in northeast Bavaria and two BoHV1-infected farms (264 animals) were analysed using BoHV1-, BoHV2- and Feline Herpesvirus 1 (FeHV1)-neutralisation tests (NTs), and three commercially available ELISAs supplied by Idexx Laboratories, B.V., The Netherlands: the CHEKIT™ Trachitest 2nd Gen. test for milk or serum (Trachitest), Herdchek™ gB- (gB-ELISA) and Herdchek™ gE-ELISA (gE-ELISA). Significantly increased levels of BoHV2 antibodies were observed on case farms compared to NC I or II farms. Additionally, reactivity by gB-ELISA and the Trachitest was significantly increased for animals with BoHV2 neutralising antibodies. Singleton BoHV1-reactors tested negative by gE-ELISA even if an elevated cut-off of 0.95±0.05 was applied. At this cut-off, the gE-ELISA was as sensitive and specific as the gB-ELISA. Comparative titration of milk samples from seropositive animals from a BoHV1-infected dairy cattle farm and from singleton BoHV1-reactors performed in CHEKIT™ Trachitest 2nd Gen. Milk revealed that the slopes of both groups were distinct; therefore, optimised cut-offs for bulk-milk testing to exclude singleton BoHV1-reactors are proposed.

Rate of introduction of a low pathogenic avian influenza virus infection in different poultry production sectors in the Netherlands

Please cite this paper as: Gonzales et al. (2012) Rate of introduction of a low pathogenic avian influenza virus infection in different poultry production sectors in the Netherlands. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses DOI: 10.1111/j.1750‐2659.2012.00348.x.

Background  Targeted risk‐based surveillance of poultry types (PT) with different risks of introduction of low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIv) infection may improve the sensitivity of surveillance.

Objective  To quantify the rate of introduction of LPAIv infections in different PT.

Methods  Data from the Dutch LPAIv surveillance programme (2007–2010) were analysed using a generalised linear mixed and spatial model.

Results  Outdoor‐layer, turkey, duck‐breeder and meat‐duck, farms had a 11, 8, 24 and 13 times higher rate of introduction of LPAIv than indoor‐layer farms, respectively.

Conclusion  Differences in the rate of introduction of LPAIv could be used to (re)design a targeted risk‐based surveillance programme.

Transmission characteristics of low pathogenic avian influenza virus of H7N7 and H5N7 subtypes in layer chickens

Low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIv) infections of H5 and H7 subtypes in poultry are notifiable to the OIE, hence surveillance programmes are implemented. The rate at which LPAIv strains spread within a flock determines the prevalence of infected birds and the time it takes to reach that prevalence and, consequently, optimal sample size and sampling frequency. The aim of this study was to investigate the transmission characteristics of an H7N7 and an H5N7 LPAIv in layer chickens. Two transmission experiments were performed, which consisted of 30 (first experiment) and 20 (second experiment) pairs of conventional layers, respectively. At the start of the experiments, one chicken per pair was inoculated with LPAIv and the other chicken was contact-exposed. Occurrence of infection was monitored by regularly collecting tracheal and cloacal swab samples, which were examined for the presence of virus RNA by RT-PCR. The results of the test were used to estimate the transmission rate parameter (β), the infectious period (T) and the basic reproduction ratio (R(0)). In addition, egg production and virus shedding patterns were quantified. For the H7N7 virus, the β, T and R(0) estimates were 0.10 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.04-0.18) day(-1), 7.1 (95% CI: 6.5-7.8) days and 0.7 (95% CI: 0.0-1.7), respectively. With the H5N7 virus, only a few inoculated chickens (5 out of 20) became infected and no transmission was observed. This study shows that transmission characteristics of LPAIv strains may vary considerably, which has to be taken into account when designing surveillance programmes.

Salmonella enteritidis surveillance by egg immunology: impact of the sampling scheme on the release of contaminated table eggs

Design of surveillance programs to detect infections could benefit from more insight into sampling schemes. We address the effect of sampling schemes for Salmonella Enteritidis surveillance in laying hens. Based on experimental estimates for the transmission rate in flocks, and the characteristics of an egg immunological test, we have simulated outbreaks with various sampling schemes, and with the current boot swab program with a 15-week sampling interval. Declaring a flock infected based on a single positive egg was not possible because test specificity was too low. Thus, a threshold number of positive eggs was defined to declare a flock infected, and, for small sample sizes, eggs from previous samplings had to be included in a cumulative sample to guarantee a minimum flock level specificity. Effectiveness of surveillance was measured by the proportion of outbreaks detected, and by the number of contaminated table eggs brought on the market. The boot swab program detected 90% of the outbreaks, with 75% fewer contaminated eggs compared to no surveillance, whereas the baseline egg program (30 eggs each 15 weeks) detected 86%, with 73% fewer contaminated eggs. We conclude that a larger sample size results in more detected outbreaks, whereas a smaller sampling interval decreases the number of contaminated eggs. Decreasing sample size and interval simultaneously reduces the number of contaminated eggs, but not indefinitely: the advantage of more frequent sampling is counterbalanced by the cumulative sample including less recently laid eggs. Apparently, optimizing surveillance has its limits when test specificity is taken into account.

Transmission between chickens of an H7N1 Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus isolated during the epidemic of 1999 in Italy

The transmissibility of an H7N1 Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza (LPAI) virus isolated from a turkey flock during the large epidemic in Italy in 1999, was experimentally studied in chickens. Four group transmission experiments were performed. Infection and transmission were monitored by means of virus isolation on swab samples and antibody detection in serum samples. From the results of these groups, we estimated the mean infectious period at 7.7 (6.7-8.7) days, the transmission rate parameter at 0.49 (0.30-0.75) infections per infectious chicken per day and the basic reproduction ratio at 3.8 (1.3-6.3). These estimates can be used for the development of surveillance and control programmes of LPAI in poultry.

Use of epidemiologic models in the control of highly pathogenic avian influenza

In the past decades, mathematical models have become more and more accepted as a tool to develop surveillance programs and to evaluate the efficacy of intervention measures for the control of infectious diseases such as highly pathogenic avian influenza. Predictive models are used to simulate the effect of various control measures on the course of an epidemic; analytical models are used to analyze data from outbreaks or from experiments. A key parameter in both types of models is the reproductive ratio, which indicates whether virus can be transmitted in the population, resulting in an epidemic, or not. Parameters obtained from real data using the analytical models can subsequently be used in predictive models to evaluate control strategies or surveillance programs. Examples of the use of these models are described here.

The effect of inoculation dose of a highly pathogenic avian influenza virus strain H5N1 on the infectiousness of chickens

Highly pathogenic avian influenza is of major concern for the poultry industry, as the virus can spread rapidly in and between flocks, causing high mortality and severe economic losses. The aim of this study was to determine the probability of infection and to determine dose-dependent virus transmission (direct transmission) for various inoculation doses. Two transmission experiments with pair-wise housed layer type chickens were performed, in which one bird per pair was inoculated with an HPAI H5N1 virus and the other contact-exposed. Various inoculation doses were used to determine the susceptibility (ID(50)), and possible relation between ID(50), and infectiousness, expressed as the amount of virus shedding and the probability of contact birds becoming infected. The infectious H5N1 dose (CID(50)) in this study was an estimated 10(2.5) egg infectious dose (EID(50))(.) Increasing the dose increased the probability of infection but survival from infection was independent of dose. In addition, increasing the dose decreased the mean latent period in the inoculated chickens significantly. This could be important for determining the time of onset of infection in a flock and thus allowing more accurate identification of the source of infection. Moreover, the amount of virus shed in trachea and cloaca by the inoculated chickens in the time between inoculation and contact infection, also differed between the various dose groups. Despite differences in latent period and virus shedding, the transmission rate parameter β and reproduction ratio R(0) did not differ significantly between the various dose groups. This implies that in this experiment the amount of virus shedding is not a measure to predict transmission or the infectiousness of chickens.

Quantification of horizontal transmission of Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis bacteria in pair-housed groups of laying hens

An important source of human salmonellosis is the consumption of table eggs contaminated with Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis. Optimization of the various surveillance programs currently implemented to reduce human exposure requires knowledge of the dynamics of S. Enteritidis infection within flocks. The aim of this study was to provide parameter estimates for a transmission model of S. Enteritidis in laying-type chicken flocks. An experiment was carried out with 60 pairs of laying hens. Per pair, one hen was inoculated with S. Enteritidis and the other was contact exposed. After inoculation, cloacal swab samples from all hens were collected over 18 days and tested for the presence of S. Enteritidis. On the basis of this test, it was determined if and when each contact-exposed hen became colonized. A transmission model including a latency period of 1 day and a slowly declining infectivity level was fitted. The mean initial transmission rate was estimated to be 0.47 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.30 to 0.72) per day. The reproduction number R(0), the average number of hens infected by one colonized hen in a susceptible population, was estimated to be 2.8 (95% CI, 1.9 to 4.2). The generation time, the average time between colonization of a "primary" hen and colonization of contact-exposed hens, was estimated to be 7.0 days (95% CI, 5.0 to 11.6 days). Simulations using these parameters showed that a flock of 20,000 hens would reach a maximum colonization level of 92% within 80 days after colonization of the first hen. These results can be used, for example, to evaluate the effectiveness of control and surveillance programs and to optimize these programs in a cost-benefit analysis.

Advances in biosecurity to 2010 and beyond: towards integrated detection, analysis and response to exotic pest invasions

In order to limit the number and impact of exotic pest invasions, leading-edge technologies must be embraced and embedded within integrated national and international biosecurity systems. Outlined here are recent advances in the detection of exotic pests, and prospects for the early recognition of disease. Applications of new tools are described, using our understanding of the genomes of pathogens and vectors. In addition, the role of mathematical and simulation models to aid both biosecurity planning, and decision making in the face of an epidemic, are discussed, and recent attempts to unify epidemiology and evolutionary dynamics are outlined. Given the importance of emerging diseases and zoonoses, the need to align human and veterinary surveillance within fully integrated systems is underlined.

A stochastic simulation model to determine the sample size of repeated national surveys to document freedom from bovine herpesvirus 1 (BoHV-1) infection

Background

International trade regulations require that countries document their livestock's sanitary status in general and freedom from specific infective agents in detail provided that import restrictions should be applied. The latter is generally achieved by large national serological surveys and risk assessments. The paper describes the basic structure and application of a generic stochastic model for risk-based sample size calculation of consecutive national surveys to document freedom from contagious disease agents in livestock.

Methods

In the model, disease spread during the time period between two consecutive surveys was considered, either from undetected infections within the domestic population or from imported infected animals. The @Risk model consists of the domestic spread in-between two national surveys; the infection of domestic herds from animals imported from countries with a sanitary status comparable to Switzerland or lower sanitary status and the summary sheet which summed up the numbers of resulting infected herds of all infection pathways to derive the pre-survey prevalence in the domestic population. Thereof the pre-survey probability of freedom from infection and required survey sample sizes were calculated. A scenario for detection of infected herds by general surveillance was included optionally.

Results

The model highlights the importance of residual domestic infection spread and characteristics of different import pathways. The sensitivity analysis revealed that number of infected, but undetected domestic herds and the multiplicative between-survey-spread factor were most correlated with the pre-survey probability of freedom from infection and the resulting sample size, respectively. Compared to the deterministic pre-cursor model, the stochastic model was therefore more sensitive to the previous survey's results. Undetected spread of infection in the domestic population between two surveys gained more importance than infection through animals of either import pathway.

Conclusion

The model estimated the pre-survey probability of freedom from infection accurately as was shown in the case of infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR). With this model, a generic tool becomes available which can be adapted to changing conditions related to either importing or exporting countries.

Cattle transfers between herds under paratuberculosis surveillance in The Netherlands are not random

The rate and structure of cattle transfers between 206 Dutch cattle herds with a 'Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map)-free' status by November 2002, were analyzed over a 3-year period (November 1999-November 2002). Of the 206 'Map-free' herds, 184 were closed herds during the period studied. In total, 280 cattle had been introduced into 22 herds at an average rate of 0.33 animals per year per 100 cattle present in the 206 herds. Assuming a random herd-contact structure, the observed rate of cattle transfers between certified 'Map-free' herds was sufficiently low to relax the surveillance scheme to biennial herd examinations by pooled fecal culture of all cattle > or =2 years of age. The cattle transfers were not randomly distributed over the herds. Forty-four of the 280 cattle originated from 12 other 'Map-free' herds. The other 236 cattle did not originate from a 'Map-free' herd and were introduced into a herd before it obtained the 'Map-free' status. No cattle were introduced into any of the 'Map-free' herds from which cattle were transferred to other 'Map-free' herds. Thus, continued propagation of the infection by cattle transfers was impossible in the group of herds studied during the study period. Therefore the surveillance scheme may be further relaxed, and may be differentiated regarding the risk herds pose to other herds.

Characteristics in the epidemiology of bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) of relevance to control

An understanding of the driving forces of BVDV transmission can be gained by considering the reproductive rate, between individuals and between herds. The former determines the prospects for eliminating the infection from herds, and the latter is the key to persistence at the population level. In this paper, the relation between these two characteristics, their underlying parameters and measures and priorities for BVDV control are discussed. A general model for BVDV control is outlined, with bio-security, virus elimination and monitoring as three necessary consecutive elements, and with immunization as an optional step. A distinction is made between systematic and non-systematic approaches to BVDV control (where the former refers to a monitored and goal-oriented reduction in the incidence and prevalence of BVDV infection and the latter to where measures are implemented on a herd-to-herd decision basis and without systematic monitoring in place). Predictors of progress for systematic control approaches in general are discussed in terms of the abilities: to prevent new infections, to rapidly detect new cases of infection, to take action in infected herds and to gain acceptance by stakeholders. We conclude that an understanding not only of the biology, but also of the social factors - human behavior, the motives that makes stakeholders follow advice and the cultural differences in this respect - are important factors in forming recommendations on alternative strategies for BVDV control.