Reliability of cancer registration data in Scotland, 1997

Adverse Tumour and Host Biology May Explain the Poorer Outcomes Seen in Emergency Presentations of Colon Cancer

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between tumor/host factors (including the systemic inflammatory response), mode of presentation, and short/long-term outcomes in patients undergoing curative resectional surgery for TNM I to III colon cancer.

BACKGROUND

Emergency presentations of colon cancer are associated with worse long-term outcomes than elective presentations despite adjustment for TNM stage. A number of differences in tumor and host factors have been identified between elective and emergency presentations and it may be these factors that are associated with adverse outcomes.

METHODS

Patients undergoing curative surgery for TNM I to III colon cancer in the West of Scotland from 2011 to 2014 were identified. Tumor/host factors independently associated with the emergency presentation were identified and entered into a subsequent survival model to determine those that were independently associated with overall survival/cancer-specific survival (OS/CSS).

RESULTS

A total of 2705 patients were identified. The emergency presentation was associated with a worse 3-year OS and CSS compared with elective presentations (70% vs 86% and 91% vs 75%). T stage, age, systemic inflammatory grade, anemia (all P < 0.001), N stage ( P = 0.077), extramural venous invasion ( P = 0.003), body mass index ( P = 0.001), and American Society of Anesthesiologists Classification classification ( P = 0.021) were independently associated with emergency presentation. Of these, body mass index [hazard ratio (HR), 0.82], American Society of Anesthesiologists Classification (HR, 1.45), anemia (HR, 1.29), systemic inflammatory grade (HR. 1.11), T stage (HR, 1.57), N stage (HR, 1.80), and adjuvant chemotherapy (HR, 0.47) were independently associated with OS. Similar results were observed for CSS.

CONCLUSIONS

Within patients undergoing curative surgery for colon cancer, the emergency presentation was not independently associated with worse OS/CSS. Rather, a combination of tumor and host factors account for the worse outcomes observed.

Association between cancer and dementia risk in the UK Biobank: evidence of diagnostic bias

Epidemiological studies have identified an inverse association between cancer and dementia. Underlying methodological biases have been postulated, yet no studies have systematically investigated the potential for each source of bias within a single dataset. We used the UK Biobank to compare estimates for the cancer-dementia association using different analytical specifications designed to sequentially address multiple sources of bias, including competing risk of death, selective survival, confounding bias, and diagnostic bias. We included 140,959 UK Biobank participants aged ≥ 55 without dementia before enrollment and with linked primary care data. We used cancer registry data to identify cancer cases prevalent before UK Biobank enrollment and incident cancer diagnosed after enrollment. We used Cox models to evaluate associations of prevalent and incident cancer with all-cause dementia, Alzheimer's disease (AD), and vascular dementia. We used time-varying models to evaluate diagnostic bias. Over a median follow-up of 12.3 years, 3,310 dementia cases were diagnosed. All-site incident cancer was positively associated with all-cause dementia incidence (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.02-1.29), but prevalent cancer was not (HR = 1.04, 95% CI: 0.92-1.17). Results were similar for vascular dementia. AD was not associated with prevalent or incident cancer. Dementia diagnosis was substantially elevated in the first year after cancer diagnosis (HR = 1.83, 95% CI: 1.42-2.36), after which the association attenuated to null, suggesting diagnostic bias. Following a cancer diagnosis, health care utilization or cognitive consequences of diagnosis or treatment may increase chance of receiving a dementia diagnosis, creating potential diagnostic bias in electronic health records-based studies.

Head and neck cancer in the UK: what was the stage before COVID-19? UK cancer registries analysis (2011-2018)

Introduction People who present with more advanced stage head and neck cancer (HNC) are associated with poorer outcomes and survival. The burden and trends of advanced stage HNC are not fully known at the population level. The UK national cancer registries routinely collect data on HNC diagnoses.Aims To describe trends in stage of diagnosis of HNCs across the UK before the COVID-19 pandemic.Methods Aggregated HNC incidence data were requested from the national cancer registries of the four UK countries for the ten most recent years of available data by subsite and American Joint Commission on Cancer stage at diagnosis classification. Additionally, data for Scotland were available by age group, sex and area-based socioeconomic deprivation category.Results Across the UK, rates of advanced stage HNC had increased, with 59% of patients having advanced disease at diagnosis from 2016-2018. England had a lower proportion of advanced disease (58%) than Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland (65-69%) where stage data were available. The completeness of stage data had improved over recent years (87% by 2018).Conclusion Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, diagnoses of HNC at an advanced stage comprised the majority of HNCs in the UK, representing the major challenge for the cancer healthcare system.

Accuracy of long-form data in the Taiwan cancer registry

The Taiwan Cancer Registry (TCR) is a nationwide population-based registry that collects the data of patients with newly diagnosed cancer from hospitals with ≥50 beds. TCR data are high quality in terms of completeness and timeliness. However, accuracy is also a crucial quality indicator. This study evaluated the accuracy rates of selected 55 major items in the long-form TCR data between 2014 and 2016 with 700 reported cases randomly selected from 25 long-form-reporting hospitals. We calculated the accuracy rates of the reported data by employing a reabstracted chart review. Among the 55 items, the accuracy rates of 38 (69%) were at least 95%, those of 10 (18%) were between 90% and 95%, those of 5 (9%) were between 85% and 90%, and the remaining 2 (4%) were between 80% and 85%. This demonstrates a high degree of accuracy in the TCR long-form data.

Evaluation of Data Quality of Four New Population Based Cancer Registries (PBCRs) in Chandigarh and Punjab, North India- A Quality Control Study

BACKGROUND

Population based Cancer Registries(PBCRs) are hallmark of cancer surveillance and cancer control activity .The value of cancer registries rely heavily on underlying quality of their data. Current study assessed data quality of four new PBCRs of Chandigarh, SAS Nagar, Mansa and Sangrur covering a total population of 4.5 millions on three quality parameters i.e. comparability, validity and completeness as recommended by International Agency of Research on Cancer(IARC), Lyon, France.

METHODS

For assessing comparability, data of the registries were reviewed in terms of system of classification and coding, definition of incidence date and rule for multiple primaries. For assessing validity (Accuracy) four different methods i.e. re-abstraction and re-coding, percentage morphologically verified cases (MV%), percentage of death certificate only (DCO%) cases and percentage of cases with other and unspecified sites (O and U%) were used. For assessing completeness of coverage, different semi-quantitative methods were used.

RESULTS

Re-abstraction done for 10% of the total incident cases yielded overall percentage agreement of 97.4%, 97.2%, 95.4% and 94.9% for PBCR Chandigarh, SAS Nagar, Mansa and Sangrur respectively. MV% was found to be 96.3% for PBCR Chandigarh, 92.8% for PBCR SAS Nagar , 89.3% for PBCR Mansa and 82.9% for PBCR Sangrur. Percentage of DCO cases and O and U cases were 1.4% and 2.8% for PBCR Chandigarh, 3.9% and 5.3% for SAS Nagar, 6.4% and 16.4% for Mansa and 6.3% and 8.3% for Sangrur. Completeness assessed through the various methods showed good level of completeness at PBCR Chandigarh and SAS Nagar and somewhat lower but acceptable level of completeness at PBCR Mansa and Sangrur.

CONCLUSIONS

All the four PBCRs are comparable internationally. PBCR Chandigarh and SAS Nagar, predominantly urban registries, have higher accuracy of their data and good completeness levels as compared to predominantly rural registries of Mansa and Sangrur. Cancer estimates given by all the four registries are reliable and data from these registries can be utilized for planning cancer prevention and control activities in the region.

Is place or person more important in determining higher rural cancer mortality? A data-linkage study to compare individual versus area-based measures of deprivation

Data from Northeast Scotland for 11,803 cancer patients (diagnosed 2007-13) were linked to UK Censuses to explore relationships between hospital travel-time, timely-treatment and one-year-mortality, adjusting for both area and individual-level socioeconomic status (SES). Adjusting for area-based SES, those living >60 minutes from hospital received timely-treatment more often than those living <15 minutes. Substituting individual-level SES changed little. Adjusting for area-based SES those living >60 minutes from hospital died within one year more often than those living <15 minutes. Again, substituting individual-level SES changed little. In Northeast Scotland distance to services, rather than individual SES, likely explains poorer rural cancer survival.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The Northeast and Aberdeen Scottish Cancer and Residence (NASCAR) study found rural-dwellers are treated quicker but more likely to die within a year of a cancer diagnosis. A potential confounder of the relationship between geography and cancer mortality is socioeconomic status (SES). We linked the original NASCAR cohort to the UK Censuses of 2001 and 2011, at an individual level, to explore the relationship between travel time to key healthcare facilities, timely cancer treatment and one-year mortality adjusting for both area and individual-level markers of socioeconomic status.

METHODS

A data linkage study of 11803 patients examined the association between travel times, timely treatment and one-year mortality with adjustment for area, and for individual-level, markers of socioeconomic status.

RESULTS

Following adjustment for area-based SES measures those living more than 60 minutes from the cancer treatment centre were significantly more likely to be treated within 62 days of GP referral than those living within 15 minutes (Odds Ratio [OR]) 1.41; 95% (Confidence Interval [CI]) 1.23, 1.60]. Replacing area-based with individual-level SES measures from UK Censuses made little impact on the results [OR 1.39; 95% CI 1.22, 1.57].Following adjustment for area-based SES measures of socioeconomic status those living more than 60 minutes from the cancer treatment centre were significantly more likely to die within one year than those living closer by [OR 1.22; 95% CI 1.08, 1.38]. Again, replacing area-based with individual-level SES measures from UK Censuses made little impact on the result [OR 1.20; CI 1.06, 1.35].

CONCLUSIONS

Distribution of individual measures of socioeconomic status did not differ significantly between rural and urban cancer patients. The relationship between distance to service, timely treatment and one-year survival were the same adjusting for both area-based and individual SES. Overall, it seems that distance to services, rather than personal characteristics, influences poorer rural cancer survival.

The prognostic value of combined measures of the systemic inflammatory response in patients with colon cancer: an analysis of 1700 patients

BACKGROUND

The pre-operative systemic inflammatory response (SIR) measured using an acute-phase-protein-based score (modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS)) or the differential white cell count (neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR)) demonstrates prognostic significance following curative resection of colon cancer. We investigate the complementary use of both measures to better stratify outcomes.

METHODS

The effect on survival of mGPS and NLR was examined using uni/multivariate analysis (UVA/MVA) in patients undergoing curative surgery for colon cancer. The synergistic effect of these scores in predicting OS/CSS was examined using a Systemic Inflammatory Grade (SIG).

RESULTS

One thousand seven hundred and eight patients with TNM-I-III colon cancer were included. On MVA both mGPS and NLR were significant for OS (HR 1.16/1.21, respectively). Three-year survival stratified by mGPS was 83-58%(TNM-I-III), 87-65%(TNM-II) and 75-49%(TNM-III), and by NLR was 84-62%(TNM-I-III), 88-69%(TNM-II) and 77-49%(TNM-III). When mGPS and NLR were combined to form an overall SIG 0/1/2/3/4, this stratified 3-year OS 88%/84%/76%/65%/60% and CSS 93%/90%/82%/73%/70%, respectively (both p < 0.001). SIG stratified OS 93-68%/82-48% and CSS 97-80%/86-58% in TNM Stage II/III disease, respectively (all p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The present study shows that the pre-operative SIR in patients undergoing curative surgery for colon cancer is best measured using a SIG utilising mGPS and NLR.

Distinct temporal trends in breast cancer incidence from 1997 to 2016 by molecular subtypes: a population-based study of Scottish cancer registry data

BACKGROUND

We describe temporal trends in breast cancer incidence by molecular subtypes in Scotland because public health prevention programmes, diagnostic and therapeutic services are shaped by differences in tumour biology.

METHODS

Population-based cancer registry data on 72,217 women diagnosed with incident primary breast cancer from 1997 to 2016 were analysed. Age-standardised rates (ASR) and age-specific incidence were estimated by tumour subtype after imputing the 8% of missing oestrogen receptor (ER) status. Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models were used to assess whether significant differences were observed in incidence trends by ER status.

RESULTS

Overall, ER-positive tumour incidence increased by 0.4%/year (95% confidence interval (CI): -0.1, 1.0). Among routinely screened women aged 50-69 years, we observed an increase in ASR from 1997 to 2011 (1.6%/year, 95% CI: 1.2-2.1). ER-negative tumour incidence decreased among all ages by 2.5%/year (95% CI: -3.9 to -1.1%) over the study period. Compared with the 1941-1959 birth cohort, women born in 1912-1940 had lower incidence rate ratios (IRR) for ER+ tumours and women born in 1960-1986 had lower IRR for ER- tumours.

CONCLUSIONS

Future incidence and survival reporting should be monitored by molecular subtypes to inform clinical planning and cancer control programmes.

Prevalence of secondary care multimorbidity in mid-life and its association with premature mortality in a large longitudinal cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Multimorbidity is the coexistence of two or more health conditions in an individual. Multimorbidity in younger adults is increasingly recognised as an important challenge. We assessed the prevalence of secondary care multimorbidity in mid-life and its association with premature mortality over 15 years of follow-up, in the Aberdeen Children of the 1950s (ACONF) cohort.

METHOD

A prospective cohort study using linked electronic health and mortality records. Scottish ACONF participants were linked to their Scottish Morbidity Record hospital episode data and mortality records. Multimorbidity was defined as two or more conditions and was assessed using healthcare records in 2001 when the participants were aged between 45 and 51 years. The association between multimorbidity and mortality over 15 years of follow-up (to ages 60-66 years) was assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression. There was also adjustment for key covariates: age, gender, social class at birth, intelligence at age 7, secondary school type, educational attainment, alcohol, smoking, body mass index and adult social class.

RESULTS

Of 9625 participants (51% males), 3% had multimorbidity. The death rate per 1000 person-years was 28.4 (95% CI 23.2 to 34.8) in those with multimorbidity and 5.7 (95% CI 5.3 to 6.1) in those without. In relation to the reference group of those with no multimorbidity, those with multimorbidity had a mortality HR of 4.5 (95% CI 3.4 to 6.0) over 15 years and this association remained when fully adjusted for the covariates (HR 2.5 (95% CI 1.5 to 4.0)).

CONCLUSION

Multimorbidity prevalence was 3% in mid-life when measured using secondary care administrative data. Multimorbidity in mid-life was associated with premature mortality.

Is detecting oral cancer in general dental practices a realistic expectation? A population-based study using population linked data in Scotland

Aims

To examine, for the first time on a population-basis via data linkage, whether early detection by general dental practices (GDP) is a realistic expectation by i) estimating the number of OC cases/year a dentist in Scotland may encounter over time, accounting for the deprivation level of practice location and dental registration/attendance rates, and ii) assessing whether patients attended GDPs two years pre-diagnosis.

Materials and methods

Scottish Cancer Registry data on all OC cases (2010-2012), published NHS Scotland dental workforce and registration/participation statistics, and individual patient data linked with NHS dental service activity were analysed.

Results

Dentists were estimated to potentially encounter one case of OC every 10 years, OCC every 16.7 years, and OPC every 25 years. However, 53.7% of OC patients had made no dental contact two years pre-diagnosis.

Conclusion

Strategies for early detection must consider the rarity of OC incidence and poor dental attendance patterns. These results highlight the importance of improving access and uptake of dental services among those at highest risk to increase the opportunities for early detection.

Declining hysterectomy prevalence and the estimated impact on uterine cancer incidence in Scotland

AIM

The prevalence of hysterectomy is decreasing worldwide. It is not clear whether changes in the population at risk (women with intact uteruses) have contributed to an increased uterine cancer incidence. This study aims to assess the effect of changing trends in hysterectomy prevalence on uterine cancer incidence in Scotland.

METHODS

The population of women aged ≥25 years with intact uteri was estimated using the estimated hysterectomy prevalence in 1995 and the number of procedures performed in Scotland (1996-2015). Age-standardized uterine cancer incidence was estimated using uncorrected (total) or corrected (adjusted for hysterectomy prevalence) populations as denominators and the number of incident cancers as numerators. Annual percentage change in uterine cancer was estimated.

RESULTS

Hysterectomy prevalence fell from 13% to 10% between 1996-2000 and 2011-2015, with the most marked decline (from 20% to 6%) in the 50-54-year age group. After correction for hysterectomy prevalence, age-standardized incidence of uterine cancer increased by 20-22%. Annual percentage change in incidence of uterine cancer remained stable through the study period and was 2.2% (95%CI 1.8-2.7) and 2.1% (95%CI 1.7-2.6) for uncorrected and corrected estimates, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Uterine cancer incidence in Scotland corrected for hysterectomy prevalence is higher than estimates using a total female population as denominator. The annual percentage increase in uterine cancer incidence was stable in both uncorrected and corrected populations despite a declining hysterectomy prevalence. The rise in uterine cancer incidence may thus be driven by other factors, including an ageing population, changing reproductive choices, and obesity.

A cancer geography paradox? Poorer cancer outcomes with longer travelling times to healthcare facilities despite prompter diagnosis and treatment: a data-linkage study

BACKGROUND

Rurality and distance from cancer treatment centres have been shown to negatively impact cancer outcomes, but the mechanisms remain obscure.

METHODS

We analysed the impact of travel time to key healthcare facilities and mainland/island residency on the cancer diagnostic pathway (treatment within 62 days of referral, and within 31 days of diagnosis) and 1-year mortality using a data-linkage study with 12 339 patients.

RESULTS

After controlling for important confounders, mainland patients with more than 60 min of travelling time to their cancer treatment centre ((OR 1.42; 95% CI 1.25-1.61) and island dwellers (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.09-1.59) were more likely to commence cancer treatment within 62 days of general practitioner (GP) referral and within 31 days of their cancer diagnosis compared with those living within 15 min. Island-dweller patients were more likely to have their diagnosis and treatment started on the same or next day (OR 1.72; 95% CI 1.31-2.25). Increased travelling time to a cancer treatment centre was associated with increased mortality to 1 year (30-59 min (HR 1.21; 95% CI 1.05-1.41), >60 min (HR 1.18; 95% CI 1.03-1.36), island dweller (HR 1.17; 95% CI 0.97-1.41).

CONCLUSIONS

Island dwelling and greater mainland travel burden was associated with more rapid cancer diagnosis and treatment following GP referral even after adjustment for advanced disease; however, these patients also experienced a survival disadvantage compared with those living nearer. Cancer services may need to be better configured to suit the different needs of dispersed populations.

Risk of hospitalization and death following prostate biopsy in Scotland

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the risk of hospitalization and death following prostate biopsy.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

METHODS

Our study population comprised 10,285 patients with a record of first ever prostate biopsy between 2009 and 2013 on computerized acute hospital discharge or outpatient records covering Scotland. Using the general population as a comparison group, expected numbers of admissions/deaths were derived by applying age-, sex-, deprivation category-, and calendar year-specific rates of hospital admissions/deaths to the study population. Indirectly standardized hospital admission ratios (SHRs) and mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated by dividing the observed numbers of admissions/deaths by expected numbers.

RESULTS

Compared with background rates, patients were more likely to be admitted to hospital within 30 days (SHR 2.7; 95% confidence interval 2.4, 2.9) and 120 days (SHR 4.0; 3.8, 4.1) of biopsy. Patients with prior co-morbidity had higher SHRs. The risk of death within 30 days of biopsy was not increased significantly (SMR 1.6; 0.9, 2.7), but within 120 days, the risk of death was significantly higher than expected (SMR 1.9; 1.5, 2.4). The risk of death increased with age and tended to be higher among patients with prior co-morbidity. Overall risks of hospitalization and of death up to 120 days were increased both in men diagnosed and those not diagnosed with prostate cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher rates of adverse events in older patients and patients with prior co-morbidity emphasizes the need for careful patient selection for prostate biopsy and justifies ongoing efforts to minimize the risk of complications.

Risk of oesophageal cancer among patients previously hospitalised with eating disorder

•

There are case reports of oesophageal cancer in patients with eating disorders.

•

We followed up a cohort of patients hospitalised previously with eating disorders.

•

These patients were at significantly increased risk of oesophageal cancer.

•

All cancers were squamous cell carcinomas in females with prior anorexia nervosa.

•

Indirect evidence suggests confounding by established risk factors.

Background

It has been suggested that the risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma might be increased in patients with a history of eating disorders due to acidic damage to oesophageal mucosa caused by self-induced vomiting practiced as a method of weight control. Eating disorders have also been associated with risk factors for squamous cell carcinoma of the oesophagus, including alcohol use disorders, as well as smoking and nutritional deficiencies, which have been associated with both main sub-types of oesophageal cancer. There have been several case reports of oesophageal cancer (both main sub-types) arising in patients with a history of eating disorders.

Methods

We used linked records of hospitalisation, cancer registration and mortality in Scotland spanning 1981–2012 to investigate the risk of oesophageal cancer among patients with a prior history of hospitalisation with eating disorder. The cohort was restricted to patients aged ≥10 years and <60 years at the date of first admission with eating disorder. Disregarding the first year of follow-up, we calculated indirectly standardised incidence ratios using the general population as the reference group to generate expected numbers of cases (based on age-, sex-, socio-economic deprivation category-, and calendar period-specific rates of disease).

Results

After exclusions, the cohort consisted of 3617 individuals contributing 52,455 person-years at risk. The median duration of follow-up was 13.9 years. Seven oesophageal cancers were identified, as compared with 1.14 expected, yielding a standardised incidence ratio of 6.1 (95% confidence interval: 2.5–12.6). All were squamous cell carcinomas arising in females with a prior history of anorexia nervosa.

Conclusions

Patients hospitalised previously with eating disorders are at increased risk of developing oesophageal cancer. Confounding by established risk factors (alcohol, smoking, and nutritional deficiency) seems a more likely explanation than acidic damage through self-induced vomiting because none of the incident cases of oesophageal cancer were adenocarcinomas, and because the study cohort had higher than background rates of hospitalisation with alcohol-related conditions and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Time from first presentation in primary care to treatment of symptomatic colorectal cancer: effect on disease stage and survival

Background:

British 5-year survival from colorectal cancer (CRC) is below the European average, but the reasons are unclear. This study explored if longer provider delays (time from presentation to treatment) were associated with more advanced stage disease at diagnosis and poorer survival.

Methods:

Data on 958 people with CRC were linked with the Scottish Cancer Registry, the Scottish Death Registry and the acute hospital discharge (SMR01) dataset. Time from first presentation in primary care to first treatment, disease stage at diagnosis and survival time from date of first presentation in primary care were determined. Logistic regression and Cox survival analyses, both with a restricted cubic spline, were used to model stage and survival, respectively, following sequential adjustment of patient and tumour factors.

Results:

On univariate analysis, those with <4 weeks from first presentation in primary care to treatment had more advanced disease at diagnosis and the poorest prognosis. Treatment delays between 4 and 34 weeks were associated with earlier stage (with the lowest odds ratio occurring at 20 weeks) and better survival (with the lowest hazard ratio occurring at 16 weeks). Provider delays beyond 34 weeks were associated with more advanced disease at diagnosis, but not increased mortality. Following adjustment for patient, tumour factors, emergency admissions and symptoms and signs, no significant relationship between provider delay and stage at diagnosis or survival from CRC was found.

Conclusions:

Although allowing for a nonlinear relationship and important confounders, moderately long provider delays did not impact adversely on cancer outcomes. Delays are undesirable because they cause anxiety; this may be fuelled by government targets and health campaigns stressing the importance of very prompt cancer diagnosis. Our findings should reassure patients. They suggest that a health service's primary emphasis should be on quality and outcomes rather than on time to treatment.

Association between socioeconomic factors and cancer risk: a population cohort study in Scotland (1991-2006)

BACKGROUND

Lung and upper aero-digestive tract (UADT) cancer risk are associated with low socioeconomic circumstances and routinely measured using area socioeconomic indices. We investigated effect of country of birth, marital status, one area deprivation measure and individual socioeconomic variables (economic activity, education, occupational social class, car ownership, household tenure) on risk associated with lung, UADT and all cancer combined (excluding non melanoma skin cancer).

METHODS

We linked Scottish Longitudinal Study and Scottish Cancer Registry to follow 203,658 cohort members aged 15+ years from 1991-2006. Relative risks (RR) were calculated using Poisson regression models by sex offset for person-years of follow-up.

RESULTS

21,832 first primary tumours (including 3,505 lung, 1,206 UADT) were diagnosed. Regardless of cancer, economically inactivity (versus activity) was associated with increased risk (male: RR 1.14, 95% CI 1.10-1.18; female: RR 1.06, 95% CI 1.02-1.11). For lung cancer, area deprivation remained significant after full adjustment suggesting the area deprivation cannot be fully explained by individual variables. No or non degree qualification (versus degree) was associated with increased lung risk; likewise for UADT risk (females only). Occupational social class associations were most pronounced and elevated for UADT risk. No car access (versus ownership) was associated with increased risk (excluding all cancer risk, males). Renting (versus home ownership) was associated with increased lung cancer risk, UADT cancer risk (males only) and all cancer risk (females only). Regardless of cancer group, elevated risk was associated with no education and living in deprived areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Different and independent socioeconomic variables are inversely associated with different cancer risks in both sexes; no one socioeconomic variable captures all aspects of socioeconomic circumstances or life course. Association of multiple socioeconomic variables is likely to reflect the complexity and multifaceted nature of deprivation as well as the various roles of these dimensions over the life course.

Burn injury, gender and cancer risk: population-based cohort study using data from Scotland and Western Australia

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the risk of cancer and potential gender effects in persons hospitalised with burn injury.

DESIGN

Population-based retrospective cohort study using record-linkage systems in Scotland and Western Australia.

PARTICIPANTS

Records of 37 890 and 23 450 persons admitted with a burn injury in Scotland and Western Australia, respectively, from 1983 to 2008. Deidentified extraction of all linked hospital morbidity records, mortality and cancer records were provided by the Information Service Division Scotland and the Western Australian Data Linkage Service.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Total and gender-specific number of observed and expected cases of total ('all sites') and site-specific cancers and standardised incidence ratios (SIRs).

RESULTS

From 1983 to 2008, for female burn survivors, there was a greater number of observed versus expected notifications of total cancer with 1011 (SIR, 95% CI 1.3, 1.2 to 1.4) and 244 (SIR, 95% CI 1.12, 1.05 to 1.30), respectively, for Scotland and Western Australia. No statistically significant difference in total cancer risk was found for males. Significant excesses in observed cancers among burn survivors (combined gender) in Scotland and Western Australian were found for buccal cavity, liver, larynx and respiratory tract and for cancers of the female genital tract.

CONCLUSIONS

Results from the Scotland data confirmed the increased risk of total ('all sites') cancer previously observed among female burn survivors in Western Australia. The gender dimorphism observed in this study may be related to the role of gender in the immune response to burn injury. More research is required to understand the underlying mechanism(s) that may link burn injury with an increased risk of some cancers.

Agreement of Iranian breast cancer data and relationships with measuring quality of care in a 5-year period (2006-2011)

OBJECTIVES

To investigate data agreement of cancer registries and medical records as well as the quality of care and assess their relationship in a 5-year period from 2006 to 2011.

METHODS

The present cross-sectional, descriptive-analytical study was conducted on 443 cases summarized through census and using a checklist. Data agreement of Nemazi hospital-based cancer registry and the breast cancer prevention center was analyzed according to their corresponding medical records through adjusted and unadjusted Kappa. The process of care quality was also computed and the relationship with data agreement was investigated through chi-square test.

RESULTS

Agreement of surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy data between Nemazi hospital-based cancer registry and medical records was 62.9%, 78.5%, and 81%, respectively, while the figures were 93.2%, 87.9%, and 90.8%, respectively, between breast cancer prevention center and medical records. Moreover, quality of mastectomy, lumpectomy, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy services assessed in Nemazi hospital-based cancer registry was 12.6%, 21.2%, 35.2%, and 15.1% different from the corresponding medical records. On the other hand, 7.4%, 1.4%, 22.5%, and 9.6% differences were observed between the quality of the above-mentioned services assessed in the breast cancer prevention center and the corresponding medical records. A significant relationship was found between data agreement and quality assessment.

CONCLUSION

Although the results showed good data agreement, more agreement regarding the cancer stage data elements and the type of the received treatment is required to better assess cancer care quality. Therefore, more structured medical records and stronger cancer registry systems are recommended.

Subsequent hospitalisation experience of 5-year survivors of childhood, adolescent, and young adult cancer in Scotland: a population based, retrospective cohort study

Background:

Survivors of childhood, adolescent, and young adult cancer are known to be at risk of late effects of their disease and its treatment. Most population-based studies of cancer survivors have reported on second primary cancers and mortality. The aim of this study was to research acute and psychiatric hospital admission rates and length of stay in 5-year survivors of cancer diagnosed before the age of 25 years.

Methods:

This was a population-based retrospective cohort study using linked national cancer registry, acute hospital discharge, psychiatric hospital, and mortality records. The study population consisted of 5229 individuals who were diagnosed with cancer before the age of 25 years between 1981 and 2003, and who survived at least 5 years after the date of diagnosis of their primary cancer. Indirect standardisation for age and sex was used to calculate standardised bed days and hospitalisation ratios (SBDR and SHR) for both acute and psychiatric hospital admissions, and absolute excess risks (AERs) compared with the general Scottish population.

Results:

Five-year survivors of cancer, diagnosed before the age of 25 years, are at increased risk of admission to acute hospitals (SHR 2.8; 95% confidence interval 2.7–2.9) and of spending more time in hospital (SBDR 3.7; 3.6–3.7). Corresponding AERs were 6.4 (6.0–6.6) admissions and 64.8 (64.4–66.9) bed days per 100 cancer survivors per year. In contrast, 5-year survivors were not at higher risk of admission to psychiatric hospital (SHR 0.9; 0.8–1.2), and they spent significantly less time as psychiatric in-patients (SBDR 0.4; 0.4–0.4) compared with the whole population.

Conclusion:

Using routinely collected linked records, our population-based study has demonstrated increased rates of hospitalisation in 5-year survivors of cancer diagnosed before the age of 25 years. Long-term clinical follow-up of survivors of cancer in this age group should focus on the prevention and treatment of the late effects of cancer in those patients at highest risk of hospitalisation.

Cause-specific mortality in Scottish patients with colorectal cancer with and without type 2 diabetes (2000-2007)

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The objective of this study was to use Scottish national data to assess the influence of type 2 diabetes on (1) survival (overall and cause-specific) in multiple time intervals after diagnosis of colorectal cancer and (2) cause of death.

METHODS

Data from the Scottish Cancer Registry were linked to data from a population-based national diabetes register. All people in Scotland diagnosed with non-metastatic cancer of the colon or rectum in 2000-2007 were included. The effect of pre-existing type 2 diabetes on survival over four discrete time intervals (<1, 1-2, 3-5 and >5 years) after cancer diagnosis was assessed by Cox regression. Cumulative incidence functions were calculated representing the respective probabilities of death from the competing causes of colorectal cancer, cardiovascular disease, other cancers and any other cause.

RESULTS

Data were available for 19,505 people with colon or rectal cancer (1,957 with pre-existing diabetes). Cause-specific mortality analyses identified a stronger association between diabetes and cardiovascular disease mortality than that between diabetes and cancer mortality. Beyond 5 years after colon cancer diagnosis, diabetes was associated with a detrimental effect on all-cause mortality after adjustment for age, socioeconomic status and cancer stage (HR [95% CI]: 1.57 [1.19, 2.06] in men; 1.84 [1.36, 2.50] in women). For patients with rectal cancer, diabetes was not associated with differential survival in any time interval.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Poorer survival observed for colon cancer associated with type 2 diabetes in Scotland may be explained by higher mortality from causes other than cancer.

Subsequent mortality experience in five-year survivors of childhood, adolescent and young adult cancer in Scotland: a population based, retrospective cohort study

AIM

To assess the risk of death in patients who survive at least 5 years after diagnosis of childhood, adolescent or young adult cancer.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This was a population-based retrospective cohort study using linked national cancer registry and mortality records in Scotland. The study population consisted of 5229 individuals who were diagnosed with cancer before the age of 25 years between 1981 and 2003, and who survived at least 5 years after the date of diagnosis of their primary cancer. Indirect standardisation was used to calculate mortality ratios standardised for age and sex and absolute excess risks (AERs) compared to the general Scottish population.

RESULTS

During 58,358 person-years of follow-up, there were 359 deaths among the cohort of cancer survivors. The overall SMR was 6.1 (95% confidence interval (CI) 5.5-6.7) and AER 51 (45-58) per 10,000 person-years. Largely because of age- and sex-related differences in background mortality, SMRs were higher in patients diagnosed at 0-14 years (SMR 11.0, 95% CI 9.3-12.9) than 15-24 years (4.7, 4.1-5.3), and in females (9.2, 7.8-10.8) than males (4.8, 4.2-5.5). SMRs and AERs varied substantially by primary cancer and by underlying cause of death. In general, SMRs were little altered by standardisation for an area-based indicator of socio-economic deprivation. Adjusted for age and sex, the risk of death was significantly lower in five-year survivors diagnosed during 1998-2003 compared to those diagnosed during 1981-1985 (Relative hazard ratio, 0.54, 95% CI 0.36-0.81).

CONCLUSION

Long-term survivors of cancer in childhood and young adulthood remain at higher risk of mortality than the general population, although the absolute risk of death is low and the excess risk has decreased over time.

Risk of cancer following primary total hip replacement or primary resurfacing arthroplasty of the hip: a retrospective cohort study in Scotland

Background:

Release and dispersion of particles arising from corrosion and wear of total hip arthroplasty (THA) components has raised concerns about a possible increased risk of cancer. Concerns have been heightened by a recent revival in the use of metal-on-metal (MoM) hip prostheses.

Methods:

From a linked database of hospital discharge, cancer registration, and mortality records, we selected a cohort of patients who underwent primary THA (1990–2009) or primary resurfacing arthroplasty (mainly 2000–2009) in Scotland, with follow-up to the end of 2010. Available operation codes did not enable us to distinguish MoM THAs. Indirectly standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated for selected cancers with standardisation for age, sex, deprivation, and calendar period.

Results:

The study cohort included 71 990 patients yielding 547 001 person-years at risk (PYAR) and 13 946 cancers diagnosed during follow-up. For the total period of observation combined, the risks of all cancers (SIR: 1.05; 95% CI: confidence interval 1.04–1.07), prostate cancer (SIR: 1.07; 95% CI: 1.01–1.14), and multiple myeloma (SIR: 1.22; 95% CI: 1.06–1.41) were increased. These modest increases in risk emerged in the context of effectively multiple tests of statistical significance, and may reflect inadequate adjustment for confounding factors. For 1317 patients undergoing primary resurfacing arthroplasty between 2000 and 2009 (PYAR=5698), the SIR for all cancers (n=39) was 1.23 (95% CI: 0.87–1.68).

Conclusion:

In the context of previous research, these results do not suggest a major cause for concern. However, the duration of follow-up of patients receiving recently introduced, new-generation MoM prostheses is too short to rule out a genuinely increased risk of cancer entirely.

Aspirin in prevention of sporadic colorectal cancer: current clinical evidence and overall balance of risks and benefits

In addition to longstanding evidence from observational studies, evidence from randomised trials of the effectiveness of aspirin for chemoprevention of colorectal cancer has increased substantially in recent years. Trials have shown that daily aspirin reduces the risk of any recurrent colorectal adenoma by 17 % and advanced adenoma by 28 %, and that daily aspirin for about 5 years reduces incidence and mortality due to colorectal cancer by 30-40 % after 20 years of follow-up, and reduces the 20-year risk of all-cause cancer mortality by about 20 %. Recent evidence also shows that the risk of major bleeding on aspirin diminishes with prolonged use, suggesting that the balance of risk and benefit favours the use of daily aspirin in primary prevention of colorectal and other cancers. Updated clinical guidelines are currently awaited.

Histological confirmation of breast cancer registration and self-reporting in England and Wales: a cohort study within the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening

BACKGROUND

In research studies, accurate information of cancer diagnosis is crucial. In women with breast cancer (BC), we compare cancer registration (CR) in England/Wales and self-reporting with independent confirmation.

METHODS

In the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening, notification of BC diagnosed between randomisation and 31 December 2009 was obtained through (1) CR (17 October 2011) and (2) self-reporting using postal-questionnaire. Breast cancer was confirmed using a detailed questionnaire (BC questionnaire BCQ) completed by the treating clinician (gold standard). Apparent sensitivity and positive-predictive value of CR/self-reporting vs BCQ were calculated.

RESULTS

Of 1065 women with possible BC notification, diagnosis was confirmed in 932 (87.5%). A total of 3.1% (28 out of 918) of BC CR and 12.4% (128 out of 1032) of women with self-reported BC only had in-situ carcinoma on BCQ. Another 4.6% (43 out of 932) of BCQ-confirmed cancer did not have a BC registration, and 3.6% (34 out of 932) did not self-report BC. Apparent sensitivity of CR and self-reporting vs BCQ were 95.4 and 96.4%, respectively. Positive-predictive value of self-reporting (87.1%) was significantly lower than that of CR (96.8%). Women aged<65 were more likely to over report in-situ carcinoma as BC. Overall, 73 (6.8%) women would have been misclassified/missed if CR, and 167 (15.6%) if self-reporting data alone was used.

CONCLUSION

This study confirms the reliability of BC registration in England/Wales and highlights the fact that 1 in 10 women self-reporting BC might only have in-situ breast carcinoma.

Quality of care in rectal cancer surgery. Exploring influencing factors in the West of Scotland

AIM

To assess variability in the proportions of types of major resection for rectal cancer throughout the west of Scotland (WoS) and ascertain factors explaining the variability.

METHOD

Retrospective cohort study of a regional population clinical audit database. This was linked to cancer registrations and death certificates in order that outcome analyses could be derived. Univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression analyses were used to explore determinants of survival.

RESULTS

A total of 1574 patients met the inclusion criteria. The age range was from 22 to 97 years. The mean age was 67, median age 68 and the standard deviation was 11.5. The majority of patients (61%) were male. Unlike previous series, male patients and those with poorer socioeconomic circumstances (SEC) were no more likely to receive an abdominoperineal excision (APE) procedure for rectal cancer.

CONCLUSION

Variation exists in the west of Scotland regarding surgical treatment for rectal cancer. We found no difference in the type of procedure offered according to sex, intent of operation or socioeconomic circumstances with reference to APE and anterior resection (AR) for rectal cancer. We conclude therefore that our region provides an equitable service on grounds of sex and SEC. This demonstrates that an equitable surgical service has been provided for those suffering from rectal cancer. Circumferential margin positivity was four times more likely in an APE than an AR for rectal cancer. This is not explained by age, stage, sex, socioeconomic circumstances (SEC), volume of surgery, intent of operation, type of admission or year of incidence.

Does the 'Scottish effect' apply to all ethnic groups? All-cancer, lung, colorectal, breast and prostate cancer in the Scottish Health and Ethnicity Linkage Cohort Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Although ethnic group variations in cancer exist, no multiethnic, population-based, longitudinal studies are available in Europe. Our objectives were to examine ethnic variation in all-cancer, and lung, colorectal, breast and prostate cancers. DESIGN, SETTING, POPULATION, MEASURES AND ANALYSIS: This retrospective cohort study of 4.65 million people linked the 2001 Scottish Census (providing ethnic group) to cancer databases. With the White Scottish population as reference (value 100), directly age standardised rates and ratios (DASR and DASRR), and risk ratios, by sex and ethnic group with 95% CI were calculated for first cancers. In the results below, 95% CI around the DASRR excludes 100. Eight indicators of socio-economic position were assessed as potential confounders across all groups.

RESULTS

For all cancers the White Scottish population (100) had the highest DASRRs, Indians the lowest (men 45.9 and women 41.2) and White British (men 87.6 and women 87.3) and other groups were intermediate (eg, Chinese men 57.6). For lung cancer the DASRRs for Pakistani men (45.0), and women (53.5), were low and for any mixed background men high (174.5). For colorectal cancer the DASRRs were lowest in Pakistanis (men 32.9 and women 68.9), White British (men 82.4 and women 83.7), other White (men 77.2 and women 74.9) and Chinese men (42.6). Breast cancer in women was low in Pakistanis (62.2), Chinese (63.0) and White Irish (84.0). Prostate cancer was lowest in Pakistanis (38.7), Indian (62.6) and White Irish (85.4). No socio-economic indicator was a valid confounding variable across ethnic groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The 'Scottish effect' does not apply across ethnic groups for cancer. The findings have implications for clinical care, prevention and screening, for example, responding appropriately to the known low uptake among South Asian populations of bowel screening might benefit from modelling of cost-effectiveness of screening, given comparatively low cancer rates.

Assessing generalisability through the use of disease registers: findings from a diabetes cohort study

Objectives Knowledge of a study population's similarity to the target population allows researchers to assess the generalisability of their results. Often generalisability is assessed through a comparison of baseline characteristics between individuals who did and did not respond to an invitation to participate in a study. In this prospective population-based cohort, we broadened this assessment by comparing participants with all individuals from a chronic disease register who satisfied the study eligibility criteria but for a number of reasons, such as the absence of consent to be approached for research purposes, did not participate. Methods Data are from the Living with Diabetes Study, a population-based cohort of individuals diagnosed with diabetes mellitus, which commenced in Queensland, Australia in 2008. Individuals were sampled from a federally-funded diabetes register. We compared the characteristics of 3951 study participants with 10 488 non-participants (individuals who were invited to participate but declined) and with 129 900 non-study individuals on the register who did not participate in the study. Results Study participants were more likely than non-study registrants to be male, aged 50-69, have type 2 diabetes non-insulin requiring, be recently registered and be non-indigenous Australians. Study participants were more likely than non-participants to be aged 50-69, have type 1 diabetes and be non-indigenous Australians. Conclusions The interpretation of a study's generalisability can alter depending on which non-participating group is compared with participants. When assessing generalisability, participants should be compared with the largest possible group of non-participating individuals. When sampling from a disease register, researchers should be wary of the influence of research consent procedures on the register's coverage.

Effect of daily aspirin on long-term risk of death due to cancer: analysis of individual patient data from randomised trials

BACKGROUND

Treatment with daily aspirin for 5 years or longer reduces subsequent risk of colorectal cancer. Several lines of evidence suggest that aspirin might also reduce risk of other cancers, particularly of the gastrointestinal tract, but proof in man is lacking. We studied deaths due to cancer during and after randomised trials of daily aspirin versus control done originally for prevention of vascular events.

METHODS

We used individual patient data from all randomised trials of daily aspirin versus no aspirin with mean duration of scheduled trial treatment of 4 years or longer to determine the effect of allocation to aspirin on risk of cancer death in relation to scheduled duration of trial treatment for gastrointestinal and non-gastrointestinal cancers. In three large UK trials, long-term post-trial follow-up of individual patients was obtained from death certificates and cancer registries.

RESULTS

In eight eligible trials (25 570 patients, 674 cancer deaths), allocation to aspirin reduced death due to cancer (pooled odds ratio [OR] 0·79, 95% CI 0·68-0·92, p=0·003). On analysis of individual patient data, which were available from seven trials (23 535 patients, 657 cancer deaths), benefit was apparent only after 5 years' follow-up (all cancers, hazard ratio [HR] 0·66, 0·50-0·87; gastrointestinal cancers, 0·46, 0·27-0·77; both p=0·003). The 20-year risk of cancer death (1634 deaths in 12 659 patients in three trials) remained lower in the aspirin groups than in the control groups (all solid cancers, HR 0·80, 0·72-0·88, p<0·0001; gastrointestinal cancers, 0·65, 0·54-0·78, p<0·0001), and benefit increased (interaction p=0·01) with scheduled duration of trial treatment (≥7·5 years: all solid cancers, 0·69, 0·54-0·88, p=0·003; gastrointestinal cancers, 0·41, 0·26-0·66, p=0·0001). The latent period before an effect on deaths was about 5 years for oesophageal, pancreatic, brain, and lung cancer, but was more delayed for stomach, colorectal, and prostate cancer. For lung and oesophageal cancer, benefit was confined to adenocarcinomas, and the overall effect on 20-year risk of cancer death was greatest for adenocarcinomas (HR 0·66, 0·56-0·77, p<0·0001). Benefit was unrelated to aspirin dose (75 mg upwards), sex, or smoking, but increased with age-the absolute reduction in 20-year risk of cancer death reaching 7·08% (2·42-11·74) at age 65 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

Daily aspirin reduced deaths due to several common cancers during and after the trials. Benefit increased with duration of treatment and was consistent across the different study populations. These findings have implications for guidelines on use of aspirin and for understanding of carcinogenesis and its susceptibility to drug intervention.

FUNDING

None.

Long-term effect of aspirin on colorectal cancer incidence and mortality: 20-year follow-up of five randomised trials

BACKGROUND

High-dose aspirin (≥500 mg daily) reduces long-term incidence of colorectal cancer, but adverse effects might limit its potential for long-term prevention. The long-term effectiveness of lower doses (75-300 mg daily) is unknown. We assessed the effects of aspirin on incidence and mortality due to colorectal cancer in relation to dose, duration of treatment, and site of tumour.

METHODS

We followed up four randomised trials of aspirin versus control in primary (Thrombosis Prevention Trial, British Doctors Aspirin Trial) and secondary (Swedish Aspirin Low Dose Trial, UK-TIA Aspirin Trial) prevention of vascular events and one trial of different doses of aspirin (Dutch TIA Aspirin Trial) and established the effect of aspirin on risk of colorectal cancer over 20 years during and after the trials by analysis of pooled individual patient data.

RESULTS

In the four trials of aspirin versus control (mean duration of scheduled treatment 6·0 years), 391 (2·8%) of 14 033 patients had colorectal cancer during a median follow-up of 18·3 years. Allocation to aspirin reduced the 20-year risk of colon cancer (incidence hazard ratio [HR] 0·76, 0·60-0·96, p=0·02; mortality HR 0·65, 0·48-0·88, p=0·005), but not rectal cancer (0·90, 0·63-1·30, p=0·58; 0·80, 0·50-1·28, p=0·35). Where subsite data were available, aspirin reduced risk of cancer of the proximal colon (0·45, 0·28-0·74, p=0·001; 0·34, 0·18-0·66, p=0·001), but not the distal colon (1·10, 0·73-1·64, p=0·66; 1·21, 0·66-2·24, p=0·54; for incidence difference p=0·04, for mortality difference p=0·01). However, benefit increased with scheduled duration of treatment, such that allocation to aspirin of 5 years or longer reduced risk of proximal colon cancer by about 70% (0·35, 0·20-0·63; 0·24, 0·11-0·52; both p<0·0001) and also reduced risk of rectal cancer (0·58, 0·36-0·92, p=0·02; 0·47, 0·26-0·87, p=0·01). There was no increase in benefit at doses of aspirin greater than 75 mg daily, with an absolute reduction of 1·76% (0·61-2·91; p=0·001) in 20-year risk of any fatal colorectal cancer after 5-years scheduled treatment with 75-300 mg daily. However, risk of fatal colorectal cancer was higher on 30 mg versus 283 mg daily on long-term follow-up of the Dutch TIA trial (odds ratio 2·02, 0·70-6·05, p=0·15).

INTERPRETATION

Aspirin taken for several years at doses of at least 75 mg daily reduced long-term incidence and mortality due to colorectal cancer. Benefit was greatest for cancers of the proximal colon, which are not otherwise prevented effectively by screening with sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy.

FUNDING

None.

Idiopathic venous thromboembolic disease is associated with a poorer prognosis from subsequent malignancy

Methods:

We carried out a retrospective study of prognosis in Scottish patients diagnosed with cancer within 5 years after a venous thromboembolism (VTE).

Results and conclusions:

Prognosis was significantly poorer if a VTE occurred up to 2 years before cancer diagnosis, most notably if the cancer was diagnosed in the 6 months after a VTE.

Obstetric Outcomes in Cancer Survivors

OBJECTIVE

To assess obstetric and neonatal outcomes in women with a prior episode of cancer.

METHODS

Data were obtained from a linkage between the Scottish Cancer Registry and routinely collected data from Scottish maternity hospitals. Obstetric outcomes in a first pregnancy which ended between 1980 and 2005 were compared in 917 women with, and 5,496 women without, a previous history of cancer.

RESULTS

The mean age at delivery was 29 years (standard deviation 5.66) and 26 years (standard deviation 5.62) in the exposed and unexposed groups respectively (P<.001). Multiple logistic regression showed that cancer survivors had higher rates of postpartum hemorrhage (odds ratio [OR] 1.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09-2.23) and operative or assisted delivery (abdominal or vaginal) (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.14- 1.54). Preterm delivery (at less than 37 weeks of gesation) was also found to be higher in this group compared with non-cancer women (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.01-1.76).

CONCLUSION

While largely reassuring to women intending to become pregnant after surviving cancer, the results indicate areas of increased risk that require additional surveillance.

Effect of aspirin on long-term risk of colorectal cancer: consistent evidence from randomised and observational studies

BACKGROUND

Randomised trials have shown that aspirin reduces the short-term risk of recurrent colorectal adenomas in patients with a history of adenomas or cancer, but large trials have shown no effect in primary prevention of colorectal cancer during 10 years' follow-up. However, the delay from the early development of adenoma to presentation with cancer is at least 10 years. We aimed to assess the longer-term effect of aspirin on the incidence of cancers.

METHODS

We studied the effect of aspirin in two large randomised trials with reliable post-trial follow-up for more than 20 years: the British Doctors Aspirin Trial (N=5139, two-thirds allocated 500 mg aspirin for 5 years, a third to open control) and UK-TIA Aspirin Trial (N=2449, two-thirds allocated 300 mg or 1200 mg aspirin for 1-7 years, a third placebo control). We also did a systematic review of all relevant observational studies to establish whether associations were consistent with the results of the randomised trials and, if so, what could be concluded about the likely effects of dose and regularity of aspirin use, other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAID), and the effect of patient characteristics.

RESULTS

In the randomised trials, allocation to aspirin reduced the incidence of colorectal cancer (pooled HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.56-0.97, p=0.02 overall; 0.63, 0.47-0.85, p=0.002 if allocated aspirin for 5 years or more). However, this effect was only seen after a latency of 10 years (years 0-9: 0.92, 0.56-1.49, p=0.73; years 10-19: 0.60, 0.42-0.87, p=0.007), was dependent on duration of scheduled trial treatment and compliance, and was greatest 10-14 years after randomisation in patients who had had scheduled trial treatment of 5 years or more (0.37, 0.20-0.70, p=0.002; 0.26, 0.12-0.56, p=0.0002, if compliant). No significant effect on incidence of non-colorectal cancers was recorded (1.01, 0.88-1.16, p=0.87). In 19 case-control studies (20 815 cases) and 11 cohort studies (1 136 110 individuals), regular use of aspirin or NSAID was consistently associated with a reduced risk of colorectal cancer, especially after use for 10 years or more, with no difference between aspirin and other NSAIDs, or in relation to age, sex, race, or family history, site or aggressiveness of cancer, or any reduction in apparent effect with use for 20 years or more. However, a consistent association was only seen with use of 300 mg or more of aspirin a day, with diminished and inconsistent results for lower or less frequent doses.

INTERPRETATION

Use of 300 mg or more of aspirin a day for about 5 years is effective in primary prevention of colorectal cancer in randomised controlled trials, with a latency of about 10 years, which is consistent with findings from observational studies. Long-term follow-up is required from other randomised trials to establish the effects of lower or less frequent doses of aspirin.

Widening socio-economic inequalities in oral cancer incidence in Scotland, 1976-2002

Oral cancer incidence was investigated among 10 857 individuals using Scottish Cancer Registry data. Since 1980 the incidence of oral cancer among males in Scotland has significantly increased, the rise occurring almost entirely in the most deprived areas of residence.

Increasing incidence of squamous cell carcinoma of the anus in Scotland, 1975-2002

In Scotland, since 1975–1979 (world) age-standardised incidence of squamous cell carcinoma of the anus has more than doubled, reaching 0.37 per 100 000 in males and 0.55 in females during 1998–2002, being somewhat higher in socioeconomically deprived areas.

The photocarcinogenic risk of narrowband UVB (TL-01) phototherapy: early follow-up data

BACKGROUND

Limited information is available on the carcinogenic risk associated with narrowband TL-01 UVB phototherapy in humans.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the skin cancer incidence in a population treated with TL-01 phototherapy.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

All TL-01-treated patients were identified from the departmental computerized database. Patients with malignant melanoma (MM), squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and basal cell carcinoma (BCC) were identified by record linkage with the Scottish Cancer Registry. The incidence of each was compared with the normal Scottish population matched for age and sex.

RESULTS

Data were obtained from 1908 patients. The median follow-up duration was 4 years (range 0.04-13). The median cumulative number of TL-01 treatments and dose were 23 (1-199) and 13 337 (30-284 415) mJ cm(-2), respectively. No increased incidence of SCC or MM was observed. Ten patients developed BCC compared with an expected 4.7 in the Scottish population [standardized rate ratio 213 (95% confidence interval 102-391); P < 0.05].

CONCLUSIONS

A small but significant increase of BCC was detected in the TL-01 group. This could be explained by a number of factors, including ascertainment bias. To determine the true carcinogenic risk of TL-01 phototherapy, longer follow-up is essential.

Changing trends in incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer in Scotland

OBJECTIVE

The incidence of thyroid cancer is increasing in several countries. The aim was to investigate trends in the incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer in Scotland, where thyroid cancer is relatively uncommon, between 1960 and 2002.

DESIGN

Descriptive epidemiological study.

METHODS

Thyroid cancer registrations between 1960 and 2000 were obtained from the Scottish Cancer Registry. Mortality data (1960-2002) and population estimates were supplied by the Registrar General for Scotland. Incidence and mortality data are expressed as age-specific rates and European age-standardized rates (EASRs).

RESULTS

Thyroid cancer was three times more common in females than in males and was more common in older than younger age groups. Between 1960 and 2000, the annual EASR of thyroid cancer increased from 1.76 to 3.54 per 100,000 for females (P < 0.001) and from 0.83 to 1.25 per 100,000 in males (P < 0.001). The overall thyroid cancer increase between 1975 and 2000 was primarily caused by an increase in papillary thyroid cancer, particularly over the most recent decade. The incidence of follicular thyroid cancer also increased while the incidence of anaplastic and medullary thyroid cancer did not change significantly. Mortality from thyroid cancer fell progressively between 1960 and 2002. EASR for females decreased from 1.05 to 0.28 (P < 0.001) and in males from 0.73 to 0.34 (P < 0.001). For both sexes, in general, survival at 1-, 5- and 10-year follow-up intervals from diagnosis improved steadily over the study period. In both females and males, survival from thyroid cancer was better if the diagnosis was made under the age of 50 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Thyroid cancer incidence has increased in Scotland over the past 40 years. This is accompanied by a change in the distribution of histological type with a particular increase in papillary carcinoma. The reasons for this may relate partly to changes in clinical practice and histological criteria. Falling mortality in the face of increasing incidence reflects improvements in survival, which should improve further with the introduction and implementation of standardized treatment protocols.

Benefits of specialisation in the management of pancreatic cancer: results of a Scottish population-based study

Pancreatic cancer is associated with a very poor prognosis; however, in selected patients, resection may improve survival. Several recent reports have demonstrated that concentration of treatment activity for patients with pancreatic cancer has resulted in improved outcomes. The aim of this study was to ascertain if there was any evidence of benefit for specialised care of patients with pancreatic cancer in Scotland. Records of patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer during the period 1993–1997 were identified. Three indicators of co-morbidity were calculated for each patient. Operative procedures were classified as resection, other surgery or biliary stent. Prior to analysis, consultants were assigned as specialist pancreatic surgeons, clinicians with an interest in pancreatic disease or nonspecialists. Data were analysed with regard to 30-day mortality and survival outcome. The final study population included 2794 patients. The 30-day mortality following resection was 8%, and hospital or consultant volume did not affect postoperative mortality. The 30-day mortality rate following palliative surgical operations was 20%, and consultants with higher case loads or with a specialist pancreatic practice had significantly fewer postoperative deaths (P=0.014 and 0.002, respectively). For patients undergoing potentially curative or palliative surgery, the adjusted hazard of death was higher in patients with advanced years, increased co-morbidity, metastatic disease, and was lower for those managed by a specialist (RHR 0.63, 95% CI 0.50–0.78) or by a clinician with an interest in pancreatic disease (RHR 0.63, 0.48–0.82). The risk of death 3 years after diagnosis of pancreatic cancer is higher among patients undergoing surgical intervention by nonspecialists. Specialisation and concentration of cancer care has major implications for the delivery of health services.

Do increases in mortality from intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma reflect a genuine increase in risk? Insights from cancer registry data in Scotland

The mortality from intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma has increased recently in England and Wales and elsewhere. This study aims to examine recent trends in the incidence of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma in Scotland, to assess the extent to which changes in diagnostic practice may be influencing the observed trends, and to consider whether the results are compatible with a genuine increase in the risk of this cancer. Cancer registration (intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma and anatomically adjacent cancers) data from Scotland 1968-1997 were analysed, including examination of trends in the percentage of cases recorded as being microscopically-verified. Since the late 1960s, the incidence of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma has increased approximately eight-fold in both sexes in Scotland. However, the proportion of cases verified microscopically has decreased substantially since the late 1970s, presumably due to an increasing reliance on radiological imaging for diagnosis. Despite this change in diagnostic practice, the incidence of microscopically-verified intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma has also increased. While changes in diagnostic practice and misclassification could explain, at least part of, the observed increase in incidence of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, a genuine increase in the risk of this cancer in the Scottish population seems probable. Further work is indicated to examine international trends in incidence, and to assess whether incidence differs within countries according to characteristics such as area of residence, socio-economic status, ethnic origin or occupation.