Prediction of mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease with the new Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease 2017 classification: a cohort study

Prognostic risk profiling in COPD using Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease 2023 ABE and comorbidity assessment: evidence from a register-based COPD cohort

Background

While the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 2023 ABE classification system guides initial chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) treatment, patient heterogeneity and comorbidities complicate management. We investigated how the GOLD 2023 ABE classification and aligned comorbidity profiles affect patient outcomes in real-world Asian populations with COPD.

Methods

We conducted a register-based cohort study of 38 928 patients from multiple institutions across Taiwan (from April 2017 to December 2021). We classified patients by GOLD 2023 ABE categories. Data included demographics, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI)-defined comorbidities, treatment, symptoms, questionnaires, spirometry, and outcomes.

Results

Among COPD patients, 89.2% were males, and the median age was 71 years. Groups A comprised 30.2%, group B 46.4%, and group E 23.5% of patients. Among these, 28.3% of group A patients used inhaled corticosteroid-containing inhalers. Group E had the highest rates of GOLD 4 airway obstruction (11.8%), CCI score ≥4 (15.6%), and five-year mortality rate (22.6%). Group E demonstrated the highest risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.727; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.605-1.858) and moderate-to-severe exacerbation (HR = 2.127; 95% CI = 1.942-2.330) vs. group A. Key comorbidities, acute myocardial infarction (HR = 1.257; 95% CI = 1.057-1.430), congestive heart failure (HR = 1.836; 95% CI = 1.707-1.909), and pulmonary disease (HR = 1.071; 95% CI = 1.011-1.129), were associated with higher mortality. Acute myocardial infarction (HR = 1.251; 95% CI = 1.031-1.444), congestive heart failure (HR = 1.193; 95% CI = 1.089-1.285), and pulmonary disease (HR = 1.491; 95% CI = 1.405-1.550) were also associated with higher exacerbations, with patterns varying across GOLD groups.

Conclusions

In this large registry-based cohort, group E patients demonstrated the highest mortality and exacerbation risks. Cardiovascular and pulmonary comorbidities increased adverse outcome risks across all GOLD categories. Systematic comorbidity screening should be integrated into routine COPD care. Findings support personalised treatment approaches based on GOLD classification and comorbidity profiles.

Characterizing ECOPD Phenotypes: Associations with In-Hospital Outcomes and Immunoinflammatory Mechanisms

Background

Hospitalization due to exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (ECOPD) is linked to substantial mortality rates.

Objective

This study aimed to identify the clinical and inflammatory phenotypes of patients with ECOPD, as well as to examine their associations with in-hospital outcomes. We sought to explore the underlying mechanisms that contribute to the relationship between ECOPD phenotypes and these outcomes.

Methods

A k-means cluster analysis was conducted on 20,890 recruited patients hospitalized for ECOPD. Logistic regression analyses were utilized to evaluate the associations between the identified phenotypes and in-hospital outcomes, such as mortality, invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), and intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Additionally, a mediation analysis was performed to elucidate the immunoinflammatory mechanisms underlying the relationship between ECOPD phenotypes and in-hospital outcomes.

Results

Three distinct phenotypes were identified: Cluster 1 (n=4,944, 23.67%) exhibited a "Female Eosinophilic Phenotype", Cluster 2 (n=10,814, 51.77%) displayed a "Male Eosinophilic Phenotype", and Cluster 3 (n=5,132, 24.57%) presented as an "Geriatric Multimorbidity-Associated Neutrophilic Systemic Inflammatory Phenotype". Clusters 2 and 3 were associated with higher risks of in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio [ORadj]=1.88 and 17.07, respectively) and IMV (ORadj=2.52 and 7.59, respectively) compared to Cluster 1. Patients in Cluster 3 also experienced an extended hospital stay (median of 13 days) and an increased risk of ICU admission (ORadj=7.72). Additionally, blood eosinophils, neutrophils, CRP, and albumin played a mediating role in the relationship between ECOPD phenotypes and the composite outcome.

Conclusion

Our study identified three phenotypes stratified by sex, multimorbidity burden, and inflammatory endotypes, which advanced threshold definition for eosinophilic exacerbations and provided prognostic insights for ECOPD management.

Treatment intensity level as a proxy for severity of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A risk stratification tool

BACKGROUND

Increasing severity of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with increasing risk of poor outcomes. Using health registry data, we aimed to assess the association between treatment intensity levels (TIL), as a proxy for underlying COPD severity, and long-term outcomes.

METHODS

Using Danish nationwide registries, we identified patients diagnosed with COPD during 2001-2016, who were alive at index date of 1 January 2017. We stratified patients into exclusive TILs from least to most severe: no use, short term therapy, mono-, dual-, triple therapy, oral corticosteroid (OCS), and long-term oxygen treatment (LTOT). Survival analyses were used to assess 5-year outcomes by TIL.

RESULTS

We identified 53,803 patients with COPD in the study period (median age: 72 years [inter quartile range, 64-80], 48 % male). The three most severe TILs were associated with a significant incremental increase in all-cause mortality with an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for triple therapy, OCS and LTOT of 1.44 (95 % CI: 1.38-1.51), 1.67 (95 % CI: 1.59-1.75), and 2.91 (95 % CI: 2.76-3.07) compared with those receiving no therapy as reference. The same pattern was evident for the composite outcome of 5-year mortality or COPD-related hospitalization with an aHR for triple therapy, OCS and LTOT of 2.30 (95 % CI: 2.22-2.38), 2.85 (95 % CI: 2.74-2.96), and 4.00 (95 % CI: 3.81-4.20), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Increasing TILs were associated with increasing five-year mortality and risk of COPD-related hospitalization. TILs may be used as a proxy for underlying COPD severity in epidemiological studies.

A Pilot Study on Proteomic Predictors of Mortality in Stable COPD

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is the third leading cause of global mortality. Despite clinical predictors (age, severity, comorbidities, etc.) being established, proteomics offers comprehensive biological profiling to obtain deeper insights into COPD pathophysiology and survival prognoses. This pilot study aimed to identify proteomic footprints that could be potentially useful in predicting mortality in stable COPD patients. Plasma samples from 40 patients were subjected to both blind (liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry) and hypothesis-driven (multiplex immunoassays) proteomic analyses supported by artificial intelligence (AI) before a 4-year clinical follow-up. Among the 34 patients whose survival status was confirmed (mean age 69 ± 9 years, 29.5% women, FEV1 42 ± 15.3% ref.), 32% were dead in the fourth year. The analysis identified 363 proteins/peptides, with 31 showing significant differences between the survivors and non-survivors. These proteins predominantly belonged to different aspects of the immune response (12 proteins), hemostasis (9), and proinflammatory cytokines (5). The predictive modeling achieved excellent accuracy for mortality (90%) but a weaker performance for days of survival (Q2 0.18), improving mildly with AI-mediated blind selection of proteins (accuracy of 95%, Q2 of 0.52). Further stratification by protein groups highlighted the predictive value for mortality of either hemostasis or pro-inflammatory markers alone (accuracies of 95 and 89%, respectively). Therefore, stable COPD patients' proteomic footprints can effectively forecast 4-year mortality, emphasizing the role of inflammatory, immune, and cardiovascular events. Future applications may enhance the prognostic precision and guide preventive interventions.

Mortality prevention as the centre of COPD management

COPD is a major healthcare problem and cause of mortality worldwide. COPD patients at increased mortality risk are those who are more symptomatic, have lower lung function and lower diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide, decreased exercise capacity, belong to the emphysematous phenotype and those who have concomitant bronchiectasis. Mortality risk seems to be greater in patients who experience COPD exacerbations and in those who suffer from concomitant cardiovascular and/or metabolic diseases. To predict the risk of death in COPD patients, several composite scores have been created using different parameters. In previous years, large studies (also called mega-trials) have evaluated the efficacy of different therapies on COPD mortality, but until recently only nonpharmaceutical interventions have proven to be effective. However, recent studies on fixed combinations of triple therapy (long-acting β-agonists, long-acting muscarinic antagonists and inhaled corticosteroids) have provided encouraging results, showing for the first time a reduction in mortality compared to dual therapies. The aim of the present review is to summarise available data regarding mortality risk in COPD patients and to describe pharmacological therapies that have shown effectiveness in reducing mortality.

Astaxanthin attenuates cigarette smoke-induced small airway remodeling via the AKT1 signaling pathway

BACKGROUND

Astaxanthin (AXT) is a keto-carotenoid with a variety of biological functions, including antioxidant and antifibrotic effects. Small airway remodeling is the main pathology of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and is caused by epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT) and fibroblast differentiation and proliferation. Effective therapies are still lacking. This study aimed to investigate the role of AXT in small airway remodeling in COPD and its underlying mechanisms.

METHODS

First, the model of COPD mice was established by cigarette smoke (CS) exposure combined with intraperitoneal injection of cigarette smoke extract (CSE). The effects of AXT on the morphology of CS combined with CSE -induced emphysema, EMT, and small airway remodeling by using Hematoxylin-eosin (H&E) staining, immunohistochemical staining, and western blot. In addition, in vitro experiments, the effects of AXT on CSE induced-EMT and fibroblast function were further explored. Next, to explore the specific mechanisms underlying the protective effects of AXT in COPD, potential targets of AXT in COPD were analyzed using network pharmacology. Finally, the possible mechanism was verified through molecular docking and in vitro experiments.

RESULTS

AXT alleviated pulmonary emphysema, EMT, and small airway remodeling in a CS combined with CSE -induced mouse model. In addition, AXT inhibited the EMT process in airway cells and the differentiation and proliferation of fibroblasts. Mechanistically, AXT inhibited myofibroblast activation by directly binding to and suppressing the phosphorylation of AKT1. Therefore, our results show that AXT protects against small airway remodeling by inhibiting AKT1.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study identified and illustrated a new food function of AXT, indicating that AXT could be used in the therapy of COPD-induced small airway remodeling.

The contribution of estimated dead space fraction to mortality prediction in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease-a new proposal

Background

Mortality due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is increasing. However, dead space fractions at rest (VD/VTrest) and peak exercise (VD/VTpeak) and variables affecting survival have not been evaluated. This study aimed to investigate these issues.

Methods

This retrospective observational cohort study was conducted from 2010-2020. Patients with COPD who smoked, met the Global Initiatives for Chronic Lung Diseases (GOLD) criteria, had available demographic, complete lung function test (CLFT), medication, acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD), Charlson Comorbidity Index, and survival data were enrolled. VD/VTrest and VD/VTpeak were estimated (estVD/VTrest and estVD/VTpeak). Univariate and multivariable Cox regression with stepwise variable selection were performed to estimate hazard ratios of all-cause mortality.

Results

Overall, 14,910 patients with COPD were obtained from the hospital database, and 456 were analyzed after excluding those without CLFT or meeting the lung function criteria during the follow-up period (median (IQR) 597 (331-934.5) days). Of the 456 subjects, 81% had GOLD stages 2 and 3, highly elevated dead space fractions, mild air-trapping and diffusion impairment. The hospitalized AECOPD rate was 0.60 ± 2.84/person/year. Forty-eight subjects (10.5%) died, including 30 with advanced cancer. The incidence density of death was 6.03 per 100 person-years. The crude risk factors for mortality were elevated estVD/VTrest, estVD/VTpeak, ≥2 hospitalizations for AECOPD, advanced age, body mass index (BMI) <18.5 kg/m2, and cancer (hazard ratios (95% C.I.) from 1.03 [1.00-1.06] to 5.45 [3.04-9.79]). The protective factors were high peak expiratory flow%, adjusted diffusing capacity%, alveolar volume%, and BMI 24-26.9 kg/m2. In stepwise Cox regression analysis, after adjusting for all selected factors except cancer, estVD/VTrest and BMI <18.5 kg/m2 were risk factors, whereas BMI 24-26.9 kg/m2 was protective. Cancer was the main cause of all-cause mortality in this study; however, estVD/VTrest and BMI were independent prognostic factors for COPD after excluding cancer.

Conclusions

The predictive formula for dead space fraction enables the estimation of VD/VTrest, and the mortality probability formula facilitates the estimation of COPD mortality. However, the clinical implications should be approached with caution until these formulas have been validated.

Association Between Rome Classification Among Hospitalized Patients With COPD Exacerbations and Short-Term and Intermediate-Term Outcomes

BACKGROUND

Recently, the Rome proposal updated the definition of exacerbation of COPD (ECOPD). However, such severity grade has not yet demonstrated intermediate-term clinical relevance.

RESEARCH QUESTION

What is the association between the Rome severity classification and short-term and intermediate-term clinical outcomes?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

We retrospectively grouped hospitalized patients with ECOPD according to the Rome severity classification (ie, mild, moderate, severe). Baseline, clinical, microbiologic, gas analysis, and laboratory variables were collected. In addition, data about the length of hospital stay and mortality (in-hospital and a follow-up time line from 6 months until 3 years) were assessed.

RESULTS

Of the 347 hospitalized patients, 39% were categorized as mild, 31% were categorized as moderate, and 30% were categorized as severe. Overall, patients with severe ECOPD had an extended length of hospital stay. Although in-hospital mortality was similar among groups, patients with severe ECOPD presented a worse prognosis in all follow-up time points. The Kaplan-Meier curves show the role of the severe classification in the cumulative survival at 1 and 3 years (Gehan-Breslow-Wilcoxon test, P = .032 and P = .004, respectively). The multivariable Cox regression analysis showed a higher risk of death at 1 year when patients presented a severe (hazard ratio, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.49-2.65) or moderate grade (hazard ratio, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.10-1.97) compared with a mild grade. Older patients (aged ≥ 80 years), patients requiring long-term oxygen therapy, or patients reporting previous ECOPD episodes had a higher mortality risk. A BMI between 25 and 29 kg/m2 was associated with a lower risk.

INTERPRETATION

The Rome classification makes it possible to discriminate patients with a worse prognosis (severe or moderate) until a 3-year follow-up.

Risk Factors Associated with a First Exacerbation Among Patients with COPD Classified as GOLD A and B in Routine Clinical Practice in the UK

Purpose

Risk factors for exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have been previously characterized for patients with more severe cases of COPD. It is unclear how the risk of first exacerbation may best be identified in patients with less severe disease. This study investigated risk factors for first exacerbation among English patients with COPD classified as Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) group A or B.

Patients and Methods

A retrospective cohort study using data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) AURUM linked to Hospital Episode Statistics. Patients with COPD aged ≥35 years and classified as GOLD group A or B (2020 criteria) from January 2013-December 2019 were eligible. Patients were required to have 24 months history in CPRD (baseline). Two cohorts were defined: cohort 1 included patients with no severe exacerbations during baseline; cohort 2 included patients with no moderate or severe exacerbations during baseline. Risk factors associated with severe, or combined moderate and severe exacerbation were examined for up to 5 years of follow-up.

Results

Overall, 194,948 patients were included in cohort 1 (mean age 66.2 years; 55.2% male), and 148,396 patients in cohort 2 (mean age 66.1 years; 56.6% male). Identified risk factors for exacerbation (and associated 1-year absolute risk of severe, or combined moderate and severe exacerbation, respectively) included: Medical Research Council dyspnea scale score (15.9%/28.4%); COPD Assessment Test score (9.6%/25.3%); GOLD grade of airflow limitation (forced expiratory volume in 1 second % predicted; 13.6%/27.5%); and lung cancer (8.1%/23.6%). After adjustment for risk factors, these factors remained independently associated with severe exacerbation at 1, 3, and 5 years of follow-up.

Conclusion

The identified risk factors may aid physicians in the early recognition of patients with COPD classified as GOLD group A or B at risk of first exacerbation.

Prediction of Hospitalization and Mortality in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease with the New Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease 2023 Group Classification: A Prospective Cohort and a Retrospective Analysis

BACKGROUND

The revised Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 2023 group ABE classification has undergone major modifications, which can simplify clinical assessment and optimize treatment recommendations for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). However, the predictive value of the new grouping classification for prognosis is worth further exploration. We aimed to compare the prediction of hospitalization and mortality between this new GOLD group 2023 ABE classification and the earlier 2017 ABCD classification in a Chinese COPD cohort.

METHODS

Data from 2,499 outpatients with COPD, who first registered in the RealDTC study of Second Xiangya Hospital from December 2016 to December 2019, were collected prospectively and assessed retrospectively. Patients were followed up on all-cause mortality until October 2022 or death.

RESULTS

Of the 2,499 patients with COPD, the risk of hospitalization during the first-year follow-up was higher in group E than in groups A and B. The mortality was higher in group E than in groups A and B, and group B was higher than group A. No differences were seen in the area under the curve (AUC) of 2017 vs 2023 GOLD grouping to predict hospitalization. The time-dependent AUC and concordance index for predicting mortality is slightly higher in the GOLD 2017 ABCD than in the 2023 ABE groups. The new GOLD 12-subgroup (1A-4E) classification combining the GOLD 1-4 staging and grouping performed similarly discriminate predictive power for mortality to the GOLD 2017 16-subgroup (A1-4D) classification.

CONCLUSION

The risk of hospitalization during the first-year follow-up was higher in group E than in groups A and B. The all-cause mortality increased gradually from GOLD group A to E. The GOLD 2023 classification based on ABE groups did not predict mortality better than the earlier 2017 ABCD classifications.

Classification of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease as ABCD according to the GOLD 2011 and 2017 versions in patients at the University Medical Center in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

In 2017, the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) substantially changed its ABCD group categorization. Although several studies had been conducted to assess the impact of the new GOLD category, there was no research on the change in the GOLD classification in Vietnam. This retrospective analysis was conducted at the Asthma and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Clinic at the University Medical Center in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Our study population comprised patients visiting the medical center from January 2018 to January 2020. We categorized patients' demographics, clinical characteristics, and pharmacotherapy based on GOLD 2011 and 2017 guidelines. A comparison between the two versions was also determined. A total of 457 patients were included in this study. The percentage of groups A, B, C, and D according to GOLD 2011 was 5%, 20.8%, 13.1%, and 61.1%, respectively, and according to GOLD 2017, it was 6.1%, 34.1%, 12%, and 47.8%, respectively. In terms of gender, male patients constituted nearly 95% of the study's population (433/457 patients). Regarding pharmacotherapy, approximately 20% of the low-risk group (groups A and B) was overtreated with inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) components: long-acting β-agonists (LABA) + ICS (15.8%) and long-acting muscarinic antagonist + LABA + ICS (3.8%). There were 13.3% and 1.1% of patients transferred from D to B and from C to A, respectively. All of them had a lower predicted percentage of forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1), and FEV1/FVC than the patients who remained in groups B or A (p<0.005). This is the first research in Vietnam to show the distribution of COPD patients using both the GOLD 2011 and GOLD 2017 criteria. 14% of patients were reclassified from high-risk to low-risk groups when changing from the 2011 version to the 2017 one, and there was discordance of medications between guidelines and real-life practice. Therefore, clinicians should use their clinical competence to consider patients' conditions before deciding on the appropriate therapeutic approach. Consequently, further studies were required to evaluate the effect of the change in the GOLD classification.

Exacerbation Risk and Mortality in Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease Group A and B Patients with and without Exacerbation History

Rationale: Risk stratification of patients according to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease severity is clinically important and forms the basis of therapeutic recommendations. No studies have examined the association for Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) group A and group B patients with (A1 and B1, respectively) and without (A0 and B0, respectively) an exacerbation in the past year with future exacerbations, hospitalizations, and mortality in perspective with the new GOLD ABE classification. Objectives: The aim was to examine the association between GOLD A0, A1, B0, B1, and E patients and future exacerbations, respiratory and cardiovascular hospitalizations, and mortality. Methods: In this nationwide cohort study, we identified patients with a diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, aged ⩾30 years, and registered in the Swedish National Airway Register between January 2017 and August 2020. Patients were stratified in GOLD groups A0, A1, B0, B1, and E and were followed until January 2021 for exacerbations, hospitalizations, and mortality in national registries. Measurements and Main Results: The 45,350 eligible patients included 25% A0, 4% A1, 44% B0, 10% B1, and 17% E. Moderate exacerbations, all-cause and respiratory hospitalizations, and all-cause and respiratory mortality increased by GOLD group A0-A1-B0-B1-E, except for moderate exacerbations, which were higher in A1 than in B0. Group B1 had a substantially higher hazard ratio for future exacerbation (2.56; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 2.40-2.74), all-cause hospitalization (1.28; 1.21-1.35), and respiratory hospitalization (1.44; 1.27-1.62), but not all-cause (1.04; 0.91-1.18) or respiratory (1.13; 0.79-1.64) mortality than group B0. The exacerbation rate for group B1 was 0.6 events per patient-year versus 0.2 for group B0 (rate ratio, 2.55; 95% CI, 2.36-2.76). Results were similar for group A1 versus group A0. Conclusions: Stratification of GOLD A and B patients with one or no exacerbation in the past year provides valuable information on future risk, which should influence treatment recommendations for preventive strategies.

Mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement: The importance of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbation

BACKGROUND

Severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been associated with futile outcome after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). Data on outcomes according to COPD severity are warranted to aid identification of patients who may not benefit from TAVR. We aimed to examine the association between risk of COPD exacerbation and 1-year mortality after TAVR.

METHODS

Using Danish nationwide registries we identified patients undergoing first-time TAVR during 2008-2021 by COPD status. COPD severity levels were defined as low or high risk of acute exacerbation of COPD (AE-COPD) and treatment intensity levels (none or short-term, mono/dual, triple therapy, or home oxygen). Kaplan-Meier functions and adjusted Cox regression models were used to assess 1-year mortality comparing COPD severity groups with patients without COPD.

RESULTS

We identified 7,047 patients with TAVR of whom 644 had a history of COPD (low risk of AE-COPD: 439, high risk of AE-COPD: 205). The median age of the TAVR cohort was 81.4 years (IQR: 76.8-85.1) and 55.8% were males. One-year mortality for TAVR patients without COPD was 8.5% (95% CI: 7.8-9.2) and 15.4% (95% CI: 12.5-18.2) for those with COPD (adjusted HR: 1.63 [95% CI: 1.28-2.07]). Patients with low or high risk of AE-COPD had 1-year mortality of 13.1% (95% CI: 9.8-16.3) and 20.2% (95% CI: 14.6-25.8) corresponding to adjusted HRs of 1.31 (95% CI: 0.97-1.78) and 2.44 (95% CI: 1.70-3.50) compared with patients without COPD. Patients with high risk of AE-COPD and no/short term therapy or use of home oxygen represented the subgroups of patients with the highest 1-year mortality (31.6% [95% CI: 14.5-48.7] and 30.9% [95% CI: 10.3-51.6]).

CONCLUSION

Among patients undergoing TAVR, increasing risk of exacerbation with COPD was associated with increasing 1-year mortality compared with non-COPD patients. Patients with a high risk of exacerbation with COPD not using any guideline recommended COPD medication and those using home oxygen had the highest 1-year mortality.

Exacerbations Predict Severe Cardiovascular Events in Patients with COPD and Stable Cardiovascular Disease–A Nationwide, Population-Based Cohort Study

Objective

Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) commonly present with cardiovascular disease (CVD). We investigated the association between COPD exacerbations and major cardiovascular (CV) events in a COPD population with a history of CVD.

Methods

This population-based and register-based cohort study identified all Danish COPD patients aged ≥40 years who visited a hospital-based, pulmonary outpatient clinic for COPD between 1st January, 2010, and 31st December, 2016, from a nationwide COPD registry. Patients with a history of a major CV event 36‒6 months prior to their COPD measurement date and no CV event 6 months before this date were included. During a 6-month assessment period, the risks of a new CV event (hospitalization with fatal/non-fatal stroke, myocardial infarction, or heart failure) and moderate and severe COPD exacerbations were evaluated. Odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals for CV events and death were estimated using adjusted logistic regression models.

Results

Of the 1501 COPD patients included, 55% experienced a COPD exacerbation and 13% experienced both an exacerbation and a CV event during follow-up (6 months). The odds of a CV event were 1.5 times higher in patients with a moderate exacerbation and more than 6-times higher in those with a severe exacerbation vs patients with no exacerbation(s). The majority of CV events occurred within 30 days post exacerbation in patients who experienced both an exacerbation and a CV event. In total, 113 patients died during the study period: 28% of deaths were caused by CVD and 72% by reasons other than CVD, mostly COPD.

Conclusion

In patients with known CVD, severe COPD exacerbations are associated with increased odds of major CV events that occur within 30 days post exacerbation, highlighting the need to prevent exacerbations in COPD patients with concomitant CVD to potentially improve both respiratory and CV health.

Burden of Disease in Patients with Mild or Mild-to-Moderate Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease Group A or B): A Systematic Literature Review

Background

Patients with mild or mild-to-moderate chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), defined as Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) group A/B, are regarded as having a lower risk of experiencing multiple or severe exacerbations compared with patients classified as GOLD group C/D. Current guidelines suggest that patients in GOLD A/B should commence treatment with a bronchodilator; however, some patients within this population who have a higher disease burden may benefit from earlier introduction of dual bronchodilator or inhaled corticosteroid-containing therapies. This study aimed to provide research-based insights into the burden of disease experienced by patients classified as GOLD A/B, and to identify characteristics associated with poorer outcomes.

Methods

A systematic literature review (SLR) was conducted to identify evidence (burden of disease and prevalence data) relating to the population of interest (patients with COPD classified as GOLD A/B).

Results

A total of 79 full-text publications and four conference abstracts were included. In general, the rates of moderate and severe exacerbations were higher among patients in GOLD group B than among those in group A. Among patients classified as GOLD A/B, the risk of exacerbation was higher in those with more symptoms (modified Medical Research Council or COPD Assessment Test scales) and more severe airflow limitation (forced expiratory volume in 1 second % predicted).

Conclusion

Data from this SLR provide clear evidence of a heavier burden of disease for patients in GOLD B, compared with those in GOLD A, and highlight factors associated with worse outcomes for patients in GOLD A/B.

Tidal volume expandability and ventilatory efficiency as predictors of mortality in Taiwanese male patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A 10-year follow-up study - Is V̇O2peak or FEV1% the gold standard?

Despite our knowledge of the risk factors for mortality associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), the mortality rate for this condition continues to increase. This study aimed to investigate the predictive power of physiological variables on all-cause mortality in COPD patients compared to peak oxygen uptake (V ˙ O2peak) and forced expired volume in one second (FEV1). We conducted a retrospective study of 182 COPD patients with complete lung function tests, cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET), and survival data. Cox regression analysis was used to estimate the hazard ratios for all-cause mortality. The median follow-up period was 6.8 (IQR 3.9-9.2) years. Out of the 182 patients in our study, sixty-two (34.1%) succumbed to various causes. Of these, 27.4% (n = 17) experienced acute exacerbations, 24.2% (n = 15) had advanced cancer, and 12.9% (n = 8) had cardiovascular disease as the primary cause of death. Another 25.8% (n = 16) passed away due to other underlying conditions, while 6.5% (n = 4) had an unknown cause of death. One patient's demise was attributed to a benign tumor, and another's to a connective tissue disease. The ratio of tidal volume to total lung capacity (VTpeak/TLC) and the ratio of minute ventilation and V ˙ O2 at nadir (V ˙ E/V ˙ O2nadir) (AUR 0.83, 95% CI 0.76-0.91) were superior predictors of all-cause mortality compared to V ˙ O2peak and FEV1%. A mortality prediction formula was derived using these variables. This study highlights the potential of VTpeak/TLC and V ˙ E/V ˙ O2nadir as predictive markers for COPD all-cause mortality in COPD. CPET is an effective tool for evaluating COPD mortality; however, the predictive equation requires further validation.

Aerosolised micro and nanoparticle: formulation and delivery method for lung imaging

Purpose

The application of contrast and tracing agents is essential for lung imaging, as indicated by the wide use in recent decades and the discovery of various new contrast and tracing agents. Different aerosol production and pulmonary administration methods have been developed to improve lung imaging quality. This review details and discusses the ideal characteristics of aerosol administered via pulmonary delivery for lung imaging and the methods for the production and pulmonary administration of dry or liquid aerosol.

Methods

We explored several databases, including PubMed, Scopus, and Google Scholar, while preparing this review to discover and obtain the abstracts, reports, review articles, and research papers related to aerosol delivery for lung imaging and the formulation and pulmonary delivery method of dry and liquid aerosol. The search terms used were "dry aerosol delivery", "liquid aerosol delivery", "MRI for lung imaging", "CT scan for lung imaging", "SPECT for lung imaging", "PET for lung imaging", "magnetic particle imaging", "dry powder inhalation", "nebuliser", and "pressurised metered-dose inhaler".

Results

Through the literature review, we found that the critical considerations in aerosol delivery for lung imaging are appropriate lung deposition of inhaled aerosol and avoiding toxicity. The important tracing agent was also found to be Technetium-99m (^99mTc), Gallium-68 (⁶⁸Ga) and superparamagnetic iron oxide nanoparticle (SPION), while the essential contrast agents are gold, iodine, silver gadolinium, iron and manganese-based particles. The pulmonary delivery of such tracing and contrast agents can be performed using dry formulation (graphite ablation, spark ignition and spray dried powder) and liquid aerosol (nebulisation, pressurised metered-dose inhalation and air spray).

Conclusion

A dual-imaging modality with the combination of different tracing or contrast agents is a future development of aerosolised micro and nanoparticles for lung imaging to improve diagnosis success.

Graphical abstract

Development of a model for predicting the severity of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Background

Several models have been developed to predict the severity and prognosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). This study aimed to identify potential predictors and construct a prediction model for COPD severity using biochemical and immunological parameters.

Methods

A total of 6,274 patients with COPD were recruited between July 2010 and July 2018. COPD severity was classified into mild, moderate, severe, and very severe based on the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease guidelines. A multivariate logistic regression model was constructed to identify predictors of COPD severity. The predictive ability of the model was assessed by measuring sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and concordance.

Results

Of 6,274 COPD patients, 2,644, 2,600, and 1,030 had mild/moderate, severe, and very severe disease, respectively. The factors that could distinguish between mild/moderate and severe cases were vascular disorders (OR: 1.44; P < 0.001), high-density lipoprotein (HDL) (OR: 1.83; P < 0.001), plasma fibrinogen (OR: 1.08; P = 0.002), fructosamine (OR: 1.12; P = 0.002), standard bicarbonate concentration (OR: 1.09; P < 0.001), partial pressure of carbon dioxide (OR: 1.09; P < 0.001), age (OR: 0.97; P < 0.001), eosinophil count (OR: 0.66; P = 0.042), lymphocyte ratio (OR: 0.97; P < 0.001), and apolipoprotein A1 (OR: 0.56; P = 0.003). The factors that could distinguish between mild/moderate and very severe cases were vascular disorders (OR: 1.59; P < 0.001), HDL (OR: 2.54; P < 0.001), plasma fibrinogen (OR: 1.10; P = 0.012), fructosamine (OR: 1.18; P = 0.001), partial pressure of oxygen (OR: 1.00; P = 0.007), plasma carbon dioxide concentration (OR: 1.01; P < 0.001), standard bicarbonate concentration (OR: 1.13; P < 0.001), partial pressure of carbon dioxide (OR: 1.16; P < 0.001), age (OR: 0.91; P < 0.001), sex (OR: 0.71; P = 0.010), allergic diseases (OR: 0.51; P = 0.009), eosinophil count (OR: 0.42; P = 0.014), lymphocyte ratio (OR: 0.93; P < 0.001), and apolipoprotein A1 (OR: 0.45; P = 0.005). The prediction model correctly predicted disease severity in 60.17% of patients, and kappa coefficient was 0.35 (95% CI: 0.33-0.37).

Conclusion

This study developed a prediction model for COPD severity based on biochemical and immunological parameters, which should be validated in additional cohorts.

Prediction of individual mortality risk among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a convenient, online, individualized, predictive mortality risk tool based on a retrospective cohort study

Background

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a serious condition with a poor prognosis. No clinical study has reported an individual-level mortality risk curve for patients with COPD. As such, the present study aimed to construct a prognostic model for predicting individual mortality risk among patients with COPD, and to provide an online predictive tool to more easily predict individual mortality risk in this patient population.

Patients and methods

The current study retrospectively included data from 1,255 patients with COPD. Random survival forest plots and Cox proportional hazards regression were used to screen for independent risk factors in patients with COPD. A prognostic model for predicting mortality risk was constructed using eight risk factors.

Results

Cox proportional hazards regression analysis identified eight independent risk factors among COPD patients: B-type natriuretic peptide (hazard ratio [HR] 1.248 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.155-1.348]); albumin (HR 0.952 [95% CI 0.931-0.974); age (HR 1.033 [95% CI 1.022-1.044]); globulin (HR 1.057 [95% CI 1.038-1.077]); smoking years (HR 1.011 [95% CI 1.006-1.015]); partial pressure of arterial carbon dioxide (HR 1.012 [95% CI 1.007-1.017]); granulocyte ratio (HR 1.018 [95% CI 1.010-1.026]); and blood urea nitrogen (HR 1.041 [95% CI 1.017-1.066]). A prognostic model for predicting risk for death was constructed using these eight risk factors. The areas under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves for 1, 3, and 5 years were 0.784, 0.801, and 0.806 in the model cohort, respectively. Furthermore, an online predictive tool, the "Survival Curve Prediction System for COPD patients", was developed, providing an individual mortality risk predictive curve, and predicted mortality rate and 95% CI at a specific time.

Conclusion

The current study constructed a prognostic model for predicting an individual mortality risk curve for COPD patients after discharge and provides a convenient online predictive tool for this patient population. This predictive tool may provide valuable prognostic information for clinical treatment decision making during hospitalization and health management after discharge (https://zhangzhiqiao15.shinyapps.io/Smart_survival_predictive_system_for_COPD/).

The Relationship Between Clinical Phenotypes and Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) Stages/Groups in Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Background Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) cannot be properly characterised by a single metric, forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1), due to its complexity and heterogeneity. The GOLD 2017 report contained the ABCD evaluation method to measure airflow limitation, symptoms, and/or exacerbation risk. Objective The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between clinical characteristics and GOLD groups or stages in patients with COPD. Methods This cross-sectional observational study was conducted at the department of respiratory medicine, King George's Medical University, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India, between 2019 and 2022. Here, stable COPD patients' demographics, clinical characteristics, and the number of exacerbations were compared between the groups following the GOLD 2022 report. An unpaired t-test with Welch's correction, chi-square test, Fisher's exact test, one-way ANOVA, and Kruskal-Wallis test were used for statistical significance. Results In this study, 349 stable COPD patients (256 males and 93 females) were selected. The GOLD 2017 categorization placed 78 (22.4%) patients in group A, 158 (45.3%) in B, 44 (12.6%) in C, and 69 (19.8%) in D. Further, we used GOLD 2017 to classify COPD patients into 16 subgroups (1A-4D). FEV1 (% predicted) decreased across groups A to D (p<0.0001). Groups C and D had a longer duration of illness, higher COPD assessment test (CAT) score, higher Modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) dyspnea scale, longer exacerbation history, and more COPD hospitalizations in the previous year than groups A and B. More symptomatic patients (B and D) exhibited lower FEV1 (% predicted) and more severe airflow limitation than less symptomatic patients (A and C) (p=0.0002). Symptomatic individuals exhibited higher CAT and mMRC dyspnea scores (p<0.0001). Groups C and D comprised older patients and those with longer disease duration, higher mMRC dyspnea scale and CAT, lower FEV1, and more severe airflow limitation (A and B). Conclusion The present study demonstrates the distribution of COPD patients' clinical phenotypes in an Indian population. We conclude that the combined COPD assessment according to the GOLD 2022 guideline provides a better understanding of COPD.

A descriptive cohort study of withdrawal from inhaled corticosteroids in COPD patients

Inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) therapy is widely prescribed without a history of exacerbations and consensus guidelines suggest withdrawal of ICS in these patients would reduce the risk of side effects and promote cost-effective prescribing. The study describes the prescribing behaviour in the United Kingdom (UK) in relation to ICS withdrawal and identifies clinical outcomes following withdrawal using primary and secondary care electronic health records between January 2012 and December 2017. Patients with a history ≥12 months’ exposure who withdrew ICS for ≥6 months were identified into two cohorts; those prescribed a long-acting bronchodilator maintenance therapy and those that were not prescribed any maintenance therapy. The duration of withdrawal, predictors of restarting ICS, and clinical outcomes were compared between both patient cohorts. Among 76,808 patients that had ≥1 prescription of ICS in the study period, 11,093 patients (14%) withdrew ICS therapy at least once during the study period. The median time without ICS was 9 months (IQR 7–14), with the majority (71%) receiving subsequent ICS prescriptions after withdrawal. Patients receiving maintenance therapy with a COPD review at withdrawal were 28% less likely to restart ICS (HR: 0.72, 95% CI 0.61, 0.85). Overall, 69% and 89% of patients that withdrew ICS had no recorded exacerbation event or COPD hospitalisation, respectively, during the withdrawal. This study provides evidence that most patients withdrawing from ICS do not experience COPD exacerbations and withdrawal success can be achieved by carefully planning routine COPD reviews whilst optimising the use of available maintenance therapies.

Development and validation of a multivariable mortality risk prediction model for COPD in primary care

Risk stratification of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients is important to enable targeted management. Existing disease severity classification systems, such as GOLD staging, do not take co-morbidities into account despite their high prevalence in COPD patients. We sought to develop and validate a prognostic model to predict 10-year mortality in patients with diagnosed COPD. We constructed a longitudinal cohort of 37,485 COPD patients (149,196 person-years) from a UK-wide primary care database. The risk factors included in the model pertained to demographic and behavioural characteristics, co-morbidities, and COPD severity. The outcome of interest was all-cause mortality. We fitted an extended Cox-regression model to estimate hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI), used machine learning-based data modelling approaches including k-fold cross-validation to validate the prognostic model, and assessed model fitting and discrimination. The inter-quartile ranges of the three metrics on the validation set suggested good performance: 0.90–1.06 for model fit, 0.80–0.83 for Harrel’s c-index, and 0.40–0.46 for Royston and Saurebrei’s \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$R_D^2$$\end{document}RD2 with a strong overlap of these metrics on the training dataset. According to the validated prognostic model, the two most important risk factors of mortality were heart failure (HR 1.92; 95% CI 1.87–1.96) and current smoking (HR 1.68; 95% CI 1.66–1.71). We have developed and validated a national, population-based prognostic model to predict 10-year mortality of patients diagnosed with COPD. This model could be used to detect high-risk patients and modify risk factors such as optimising heart failure management and offering effective smoking cessation interventions.

Disease Trajectories and Impact of One Moderate Exacerbation in Gold B COPD Patients

Introduction

Studies have shown that exacerbation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) increases the risk of further exacerbations. Our aim was to investigate the impact of a single moderate exacerbation on the odds of subsequent exacerbations and death in GOLD B COPD patients.

Methods

This hospital-based nationwide, cohort study in Denmark included all patients ≥40 years of age with an in- and/or outpatient ICD-10 J44 diagnosis (COPD Register, 2008–2014). Index was date of first registered modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) score ≥2; baseline period was 12 months pre-index. At index, patients were grouped as: B0, no exacerbation; and B1, one moderate exacerbation during the previous year, and followed for three consecutive years in 2008–2017 for development of moderate- (short-term use of prednisolone or prednisone) and severe (emergency visit or hospitalization) exacerbations and death. Using B0 as reference, the odds ratio (OR) for exacerbation and death in GOLD B1 was estimated with multinominal logistic regression and a Cox model estimated the hazard ratio for exacerbation accounting for recurrent events.

Results

In total, 8,453 patients (mean age 70 years, 51% male) were included, of which GOLD B0 4,545 and GOLD B1 3,908 patients. During the 3-year follow-up, 34.1% and 24.9% of GOLD B0 and B1, respectively, had none or one moderate exacerbation whereas 61.9% and 71.2% of B0 and B1, respectively, had a severe trajectory with multiple moderate and/or a severe exacerbation or died. In B1 patients, the OR for 1 moderate, ≥2 moderate exacerbations, ≥1 severe exacerbation was 1.58 [CI 1.33–1.87], 2.60 [2.19–3.08], 2.08 [1.76–2.45], respectively, and 1.85 [1.57–2.17] for death compared with B0.

Conclusion

One moderate exacerbation in COPD patients with high symptom burden increases the odds of subsequent exacerbations and death during the three following years. The results emphasize the importance of preventing exacerbations in GOLD B patients.

Economic Evaluation of Umeclidinium/Vilanterol versus Umeclidinium or Salmeterol in Symptomatic Non-Exacerbating Patients with COPD from a UK Perspective Using the GALAXY Model

INTRODUCTION

Dual bronchodilators are recommended as maintenance treatment for patients with symptomatic COPD in the UK; further evidence is needed to evaluate cost-effectiveness versus monotherapy. Cost-effectiveness of umeclidinium/vilanterol versus umeclidinium and salmeterol from a UK healthcare perspective in patients without exacerbations in the previous year was assessed using post hoc EMAX trial data.

METHODS

The validated GALAXY model was populated with baseline characteristics and treatment effects from the non-exacerbating subgroup of the symptomatic EMAX population (COPD assessment test score ≥10) and 2020 UK healthcare and drug costs. Outputs included estimated exacerbation rates, costs, life-years (LYs), and quality-adjusted LYs (QALYs); incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated as incremental cost/QALY gained. The base case (probabilistic model) used a 10-year time horizon, assumed no treatment discontinuation, and discounted future costs and QALYs by 3.5% annually. Sensitivity and scenario analyses assessed robustness of model results.

RESULTS

Umeclidinium/vilanterol treatment was dominant versus umeclidinium and salmeterol, providing an additional 0.090 LYs (95% range: 0.035, 0.158) and 0.055 QALYs (-0.059, 0.168) with total cost savings of £690 (£231, £1306) versus umeclidinium, and 0.174 LYs (0.076, 0.286) and 0.204 QALYs (0.079, 0.326) with savings of £1336 (£1006, £2032) versus salmeterol. In scenario and sensitivity analyses, umeclidinium/vilanterol was dominant versus umeclidinium except over a 5-year time horizon (more QALYs at higher total cost; ICER=£4/QALY gained) and at the lowest estimate of the St George's Respiratory Questionnaire treatment effect (fewer QALYs at lower total cost; ICER=£12,284/QALY gained); umeclidinium/vilanterol was consistently dominant versus salmeterol. At willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000/QALY, probability that umeclidinium/vilanterol was cost-effective in this non-exacerbating subgroup was 95% versus umeclidinium and 100% versus salmeterol.

CONCLUSION

Based on model predictions from a UK perspective, symptomatic patients with COPD and no exacerbations in the prior year receiving umeclidinium/vilanterol are expected to have better outcomes at lower costs versus umeclidinium and salmeterol.

Psychometric Evaluation of the Self-Care in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Inventory in the United States

BACKGROUND

High quality self-care among individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) promotes better outcomes, however, there are few validated self-care measures that are psychometrically sound to be used in research.

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study is to examine the psychometric properties of the Self-Care in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Inventory (SC-COPDI) in an English-speaking population in the United States.

METHODS

Factorial validity, construct validity and reliability of the SCCOPDI were examined using components analysis via principal components analysis, hypothesis testing via multivariate linear regression, Cronbach's alpha, and split-half reliability.

RESULTS

The SCCOPDI demonstrated strong evidence of validity and reliability on par with the SCCOPDI's original construction. Component analysis produced item loadings consistent with the theoretical underpinnings of the instrument. Reliability metrics yielded good internal consistency across all subscales of the SCCOPDI.

CONCLUSIONS

The SCCOPDI is a valid and reliable instrument to measure self-care in people with COPD.

Healthcare, Medication Utilization and Outcomes of Patients with COPD by GOLD Classification in England

Background

Available data on the relationship between COPD symptoms, disease outcomes, and mortality are currently limited. This study investigated the clinical characteristics, outcomes, healthcare utilization, and prescribing practices across GOLD 2017 groups (A, B, C, and D) in a large-scale, population-based cohort of COPD patients managed in an English primary care setting.

Patients and Methods

This retrospective analysis included patients aged ≥35 years, with a confirmed diagnosis of COPD and ≥1 record of pulmonary function testing in their medical history. Medical Research Council dyspnea score and exacerbation history were used to define patients’ GOLD 2017 classification. Patients were identified using the UK Clinical Practice Research Database and were followed for 12 months.

Results

Eligible COPD patients’ (N=42,331; mean [SD] age, 69.5 [10.7] years; 54% males), GOLD 2017 categorizations were: Group A: 49.1%, Group B: 30.5%, Group C: 8.2%, Group D: 12.1%. Overall, 37.7% of patients experienced ≥1 moderate COPD exacerbation. The rate of moderate exacerbations per person per year (PPPY) was highest in GOLD group D (0.72), followed by C (0.53), B (0.22), and A (0.15), while the rate of exacerbations leading to hospitalization PPPY was much higher in D (0.27) than in B (0.10), C (0.08), or A (0.03). Overall, 56.4% of patients visited their general practitioner ≥5 times in the 12 months of follow-up. Time-to-event analysis suggested that breathlessness contributed to exacerbation severity and frequency. One-year mortality was highest in GOLD groups D and B. The most frequent prescribed maintenance therapies were inhaled corticosteroids with long-acting β₂-agonists, multiple-inhaler triple therapy, or long-acting muscarinic antagonist, irrespective of GOLD classification.

Conclusion

The burden of COPD remains substantial in England. Stratification of this large primary care population according to GOLD criteria predicted the risk of COPD exacerbations. Understanding populations of patients with COPD may enable the optimization of patient care.

Distancing Measures in COVID-19 Pandemic: Loneliness, More than Physical Isolation, Affects Health Status and Psycho-Cognitive Wellbeing in Elderly Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Since the outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in 2020, many governments have been imposing confinement and physical distancing measures. No data exist on the effects of lockdowns on the health status of patients affected by chronic pathologies, specifically those with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). Our study aims to establish variations across the psychological and cognitive profile of patients during the isolation period in Italy, in a cohort of patients affected by COPD, between February and May 2020. Forty patients with established COPD were comprehensively evaluated by geriatric multidimensional assessment before the spread of the epidemic in Italy, and submitted to a second evaluation during the subsequent lockdown. We assessed functional ability, basic and instrumental Activities of Daily Living (ADL and IADL), cognition and mood status. We compared the scores obtained at baseline against those obtained during the pandemic, and used mean differences for correlation with major clinical and functional indexes. The score differences from MMSE, ADL and IADL were statistically significant. Such differences were correlated to the presence of a caregiver and to the total number of family members living together. Remarkably, the loneliness dimension, more than the restrictions themselves, seemed to represent the major determinant of altered health status and depressed psycho-cognitive profile in our population. Also remarkably, we detected no correlation between the score variation and the respiratory function indexes of disease severity. The isolation measures adopted during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic have triggered the classic clinical string associated to geriatric isolation, which leads to a deterioration of cognitive functions, independence and frailty levels in a population affected by a chronic degenerative disease, such as COPD. If considered from a multidimensional geriatric point of view, the individual benefit of isolation measures could be small or non-existent.

Association between frailty index, lung function, and major clinical determinants in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

BACKGROUND

Airflow limitation alone is unable to capture the complexity of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), better explained by comprehensive disease-specific indexes. Frailty is a clinical condition characterized by high vulnerability to internal and external stressors and represents a strong predictor of adverse outcomes.

AIMS

Primary objective was to test the association between indexes of lung function and COPD severity with frailty index (FI), and secondary to evaluate the association between FI and comorbidities, cognitive and physical function, BODE index, and mortality.

METHODS

150 stable COPD outpatients were enrolled and followed up to 4 years. At baseline, participants performed a geriatric multidimensional assessment, pulmonary function tests, arterial blood gas analysis, 6-min walking test, and bioimpedance analysis. BODE and FI were calculated. Spearman's ρ was used to assess correlations. Mortality was assessed using Kaplan-Meier curves.

RESULTS

Participants were followed up for a median of 39 months. Mean age was 73 years and median frailty index 0.15 (IQR 0.11-0.19). FI was higher in frequent exacerbators (≥ 2/year) (mean 0.18 vs 0.15, p 0.01) and dyspnoeic patients (mMRC ≥ 2) (mean 0.21 vs 0.14, p < 0.01) and correlated with lung volumes, expiratory flows, and pressure of arterial oxygen. FI was positively correlated with the number of comorbidities, depressive symptoms, cognitive decline, and BODE index. Mortality was higher in patients with BODE higher than 3 (HR 3.6, 95% CI 1.2-10.9), and not associated with FI.

DISCUSSION

FI positively correlates with all clinical drivers orienting the choice of treatment in COPD.

CONCLUSIONS

FI associates with lung function and COPD severity, but does not associate with mortality.

Future concepts in bronchodilation for COPD: dual- versus monotherapy

Most patients with COPD are recommended to initiate maintenance therapy with a single long-acting bronchodilator, such as a long-acting muscarinic antagonist or long-acting β₂-agonist. However, many patients receiving mono-bronchodilation continue to experience high symptom burden, suggesting that patients are frequently not receiving optimal treatment. Treatment goals for COPD are often broad and not individually tailored, making initial treatment response assessments difficult. A personalised approach to initial maintenance therapy, based upon an individual's symptom burden and exacerbation risk, may be more appropriate.An alternative approach would be to maximise bronchodilation early in the disease course of all patients with COPD. Evidence suggests that dual bronchodilation has greater and consistent efficacy for lung function and symptoms than mono-bronchodilation, whilst potentially reducing the risk of exacerbations and disease deterioration, with a similar safety profile to mono-bronchodilators. Improvements in lung function and symptoms between dual- and mono-bronchodilation have also been demonstrated in maintenance-naïve patients, who are most likely to resemble those at first presentation in a clinical setting. Despite promising results, there are several evidence gaps that need to be addressed to allow decision makers to evaluate the merits of a widespread earlier introduction of dual bronchodilation.

The Characteristics of Airflow Limitation and Future Exacerbations in Different GOLD Groups of COPD Patients

Background

The Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 2017 separated pulmonary function from combined assessment. We aimed to analyze the characteristics of airflow limitation and future exacerbations in different GOLD groups of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients.

Methods

For this prospective observational study, stable COPD outpatients were enrolled and divided into Groups A, B, C and D based on GOLD 2017, and followed-up for 18 months. Data on demographics, pulmonary function, COPD assessment test (CAT), Clinical COPD Questionnaire (CCQ), modified Medical Research Council (mMRC), exacerbations, mortality and treatments were collected. A post-bronchodilator ratio of forced expiratory volume in one second to forced vital capacity <0.70 confirms the presence of airflow limitation.

Results

A total of 993 subjects were classified into Groups A (n = 170, 17.1%), B (n = 360, 36.3%), C (n = 122, 12.3%), and D (n = 341, 34.3%). There were significant differences in mMRC, CAT, CCQ, exacerbations and hospitalizations rates among the different groups (P < 0.001). Groups B and D had more severe airflow limitation than Groups A and C (P < 0.05). In the same groups with different severity of airflow limitation, the differences were mainly observed in body mass index, CAT, CCQ and treatment with long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA) and LAMA + long-acting β2-agonist + inhaled corticosteroid (P < 0.05). After 18 months of follow-up, the exacerbations and hospitalizations rates were significantly different among different groups (P < 0.05). However, in the same groups with different airflow limitation severity, the mortality rates and number of exacerbations, hospitalizations and frequent exacerbators showed no differences.

Conclusion

In the GOLD groups, different severity of airflow limitation had no impact on future exacerbations and mortality rate. It implies that pulmonary function is not a good indicator for predicting exacerbation.

Mortality risk attributable to classification of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and reduced lung function: A 21-year longitudinal cohort study

AIM

The mortality risk attributable to the classifications of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains unclear. We investigated the associations of mortality with COPD classifications and reduced lung function in a large longitudinal cohort in Taiwan.

METHODS

A total of 388,401 adults (≥25 years of age) were recruited between 1996 and 2016 underwent 834,491 medical examinations including spirometry. We used the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) to establish the COPD classifications. A time-dependent Cox regression model was used to investigate the associations between the morality risk and COPD classifications. We also examined the associations between mortality and lung function.

RESULTS

The mean age of the participants was 42.1 years, and the median follow-up duration was 16.2 years. We identified 28,283 natural-cause deaths, and the mortality rate was 4.7 per 1,000 person-years. The hazard ratios (HRs) [95%confidence interval (95%CI)] of mortality in the participants with restrictive spirometry pattern and COPD GOLD Ⅰ-Ⅳ were 1.31 (1.27-1.35), 1.18 (1.00-1.39), 1.43 (1.35-1.51), 1.78 (1.66-1.90), and 2.13 (1.94-2.34), respectively, with reference to the participants with normal lung function. The natural-cause mortality risk increased by 33% [HR(95%CI): 1.33 (1.28-1.39)] for participants with COPD. Reduced lung function was also associated with a higher mortality risk.

CONCLUSIONS

A more advanced classification of COPD was associated with a greater increase in the mortality risk. Our study suggests that early detection of COPD and slowing the disease progress in patients with COPD are crucial for mortality prevention.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: moving from symptom relief to mortality reduction

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has a 3-year mortality rate up to 37%, 2-6 times higher than the general population. We present evidence supporting pharmacological therapies to improve patient life expectancy, focusing on inhaled corticosteroids (ICSs) combined with long-acting bronchodilators (LABDs). A reduction in 3-year all-cause mortality (ACM) has been shown in patients with severe COPD treated with fluticasone propionate (an ICS) and salmeterol [long-acting beta-agonist (LABA)], compared with placebo. An observational study of elderly patients with severe COPD and multiple comorbidities suggested ICS+LABD reduce ACM compared with LABD monotherapy. Patients with symptomatic COPD at risk of exacerbations saw a mortality benefit with the ICS/long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA)/LABA combinations fluticasone furoate/umeclidinium/vilanterol (FF/UMEC/VI) or budesonide/glycopyrrolate/formoterol (BUD/GLY/FOR) versus UMEC/VI or GLY/FOR (LAMA/LABA combinations) in the IMPACT and ETHOS trials, respectively. Reduced risk of mortality may be due to modulation of airway inflammation, thereby reducing activation of proinflammatory mediators in the peripheral circulation. Importantly, estimated annual risk reduction for ACM with ICS/LAMA/LABA combinations in patients with COPD is of the same order of magnitude as for statins (patients with coronary disease) and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (patients with vascular disease). Based on the current data, the pharmacological treatment of COPD appears not only able to improve symptoms and reduce the frequency of exacerbations but is also very promising in improving patient prognosis in the long term.

Acute effects of expiratory positive airway pressure on exercise tolerance in patients with COPD

Objective: To evaluate the acute effects of expiratory positive airway pressure (EPAP) on exercise tolerance, dyspnea, leg discomfort, and breathing pattern in patients with COPD. Methods: Fifteen patients with COPD were assessed with the following three different protocols: EPAP of 7.5 cmH₂O used during a constant cycle ergometer exercise test (Protocol-1); EPAP of 7.5 cmH₂O used for 15 minutes before the test (Protocol-2); and a sham system without pressure used for 15 minutes before the test (Protocol-3). Dyspnea and leg discomfort were assessed using Borg scale, whereas breathing pattern by optoelectronic plethysmography. Statistical analyses were performed using generalized estimating equations and Bonferroni tests (α = 5%), considering the protocols (1, 2, and 3) and moment (resting and the end of exercise). Results: Exercise tolerance was lower in protocol 1: 108 ± 45 seconds compared to protocols 2: 187 ± 99 seconds (p= .011) and 3: 183 ± 101 seconds (p= .021). No difference was observed between protocols 2 and 3 (p> .999). Dyspnea in protocol 1: 7.0 ± 2.08 was higher than protocols 2: 4.10 ± 2.45 (p= .001) and 3: 3.90 ± 2.21 (p< .001), but no differences were observed between protocols 2 and 3 (p> .999). No significant difference was observed for leg discomfort among the protocols (p= .137). There were no statistically significant differences for most variables of breathing pattern among the protocols. Conclusion: A reduction on exercise tolerance and an increase in dyspnea were found with EPAP of 7.5 cm H₂O during a constant cycle ergometer exercise test in patients with COPD.

Prediction of Mortality Using Different COPD Risk Assessments - A 12-Year Follow-Up

Purpose

A multidimensional approach in the risk assessment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is preferable. The aim of this study is to compare the prognostic ability for mortality by different COPD assessment systems; spirometric staging, classification by GOLD 2011, GOLD 2017, the age, dyspnea, obstruction (ADO) and the dyspnea, obstruction, smoking, exacerbation (DOSE) indices.

Patients and Methods

A total of 490 patients diagnosed with COPD were recruited from primary and secondary care in central Sweden in 2005. The cohort was followed until 2017. Data for categorization using the different assessment systems were obtained through questionnaire data from 2005 and medical record reviews between 2000 and 2003. Kaplan-Meier survival analyses and Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess mortality risk. Receiver operating characteristic curves estimated areas under the curve (AUC) to evaluate each assessment systems´ ability to predict mortality.

Results

By the end of follow-up, 49% of the patients were deceased. The mortality rate was higher for patients categorized as stage 3–4, GOLD D in both GOLD classifications and those with a DOSE score above 4 and ADO score above 8. The ADO index was most accurate for predicting mortality, AUC 0.79 (95% CI 0.75–0.83) for all-cause mortality and 0.80 (95% CI 0.75–0.85) for respiratory mortality. The AUC values for stages 1–4, GOLD 2011, GOLD 2017 and DOSE index were 0.73, 0.66, 0.63 and 0.69, respectively, for all-cause mortality.

Conclusion

All of the risk assessment systems predict mortality. The ADO index was in this study the best predictor and could be a helpful tool in COPD risk assessment.

Mortality prediction in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease comparing the GOLD 2015 and GOLD 2019 staging: a pooled analysis of individual patient data

In 2019, The Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) modified the grading system for patients with COPD, creating 16 subgroups (1A–4D). As part of the COPD Cohorts Collaborative International Assessment (3CIA) initiative, we aim to compare the mortality prediction of the 2015 and 2019 COPD GOLD staging systems.

We studied 17 139 COPD patients from the 3CIA study, selecting those with complete data. Patients were classified by the 2015 and 2019 GOLD ABCD systems, and we compared the predictive ability for 5-year mortality of both classifications.

In total, 17 139 patients with COPD were enrolled in 22 cohorts from 11 countries between 2003 and 2017; 8823 of them had complete data and were analysed. Mean±sd age was 63.9±9.8 years and 62.9% were male. GOLD 2019 classified the patients in milder degrees of COPD. For both classifications, group D had higher mortality. 5-year mortality did not differ between groups B and C in GOLD 2015; in GOLD 2019, mortality was greater for group B than C. Patients classified as group A and B had better sensitivity and positive predictive value with the GOLD 2019 classification than GOLD 2015. GOLD 2015 had better sensitivity for group C and D than GOLD 2019. The area under the curve values for 5-year mortality were only 0.67 (95% CI 0.66–0.68) for GOLD 2015 and 0.65 (95% CI 0.63–0.66) for GOLD 2019.

The new GOLD 2019 classification does not predict mortality better than the previous GOLD 2015 system.

GOLD 2019 staging system created 16 subgroups. GOLD 2015 and GOLD 2019 are not strong predictors of mortality, and do not have sufficient discriminatory power to be used as a tool for risk classification of mortality in patients with COPD.https://bit.ly/3idBuaN

Is group C really needed as a separate group from D in COPD? A single-center cross-sectional study

INTRODUCTION

GOLD 2017 report proposed that the combined COPD assessment should be done according only to symptom burden and exacerbation history in the previous year.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to investigate the change in the COPD groups after the GOLD 2017 revision and also to discuss the evaluation of group C and D as a single group after the GOLD 2019 report.

METHOD

The study was designed as a cross-sectional. 251 stable COPD patients admitted to our out-patient clinic; aged ≥40 years, at least one-year diagnosis of COPD and ≥10 pack-year smoking history were consecutively recruited for the study.

RESULTS

In GOLD 2017, a significant difference was found between the distribution of all groups compared to GOLD 2011 (P = 0,001). 31 patients included in group C were reclassified into group A and 37 patients in group D were reclassified into group B. The FEV₁ values of group A and B patients were significantly low and group C and D patients had had exacerbations in more frequently the previous year in GOLD 2017 compared to GOLD 2011.

CONCLUSION

After the GOLD 2017 revision, the rate of group C patients decreased even more compared to GOLD 2011 and the group C and D may be considered as a single group in terms of the treatment recommendations with the GOLD 2019 revision. We think that future prospective studies are needed to support this suggestion.

COPD phenotypes and machine learning cluster analysis: A systematic review and future research agenda

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a highly heterogeneous condition projected to become the third leading cause of death worldwide by 2030. To better characterize this condition, clinicians have classified patients sharing certain symptomatic characteristics, such as symptom intensity and history of exacerbations, into distinct phenotypes. In recent years, the growing use of machine learning algorithms, and cluster analysis in particular, has promised to advance this classification through the integration of additional patient characteristics, including comorbidities, biomarkers, and genomic information. This combination would allow researchers to more reliably identify new COPD phenotypes, as well as better characterize existing ones, with the aim of improving diagnosis and developing novel treatments. Here, we systematically review the last decade of research progress, which uses cluster analysis to identify COPD phenotypes. Collectively, we provide a systematized account of the extant evidence, describe the strengths and weaknesses of the main methods used, identify gaps in the literature, and suggest recommendations for future research.

GOLD Classifications, COPD Hospitalization, and All-Cause Mortality in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: The HUNT Study

Purpose

The Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) has published three classifications of COPD from 2007 to 2017. No studies have investigated the ability of these classifications to predict COPD-related hospitalizations. We aimed to compare the discrimination ability of the GOLD 2007, 2011, and 2017 classifications to predict COPD hospitalization and all-cause mortality.

Patients and Methods

We followed 1300 participants with COPD aged ≥40 years who participated in the HUNT Study (1995-1997) through to December 31, 2015. Survival analysis and time-dependent area under receiver operating characteristics curves (AUC) were used to compare the discrimination abilities of the GOLD classifications.

Results

Of the 1300 participants, 522 were hospitalized due to COPD and 896 died over 20.4 years of follow-up. In adjusted models, worsening GOLD 2007, GOLD 2011, or GOLD 2017 categories were associated with higher hazards for COPD hospitalization and all-cause mortality, except for the GOLD 2017 classification and all-cause mortality (ptrend=0.114). In crude models, the AUCs (95% CI) for the GOLD 2007, GOLD 2011, and GOLD 2017 for COPD hospitalization were 63.1 (58.7-66.9), 60.9 (56.1-64.4), and 56.1 (54.0-58.1), respectively, at 20-years' follow-up. Corresponding estimates for all-cause mortality were 57.0 (54.8-59.1), 54.1 (52.1-56.0), and 52.6 (51.0-54.3). The differences in AUCs between the GOLD classifications to predict COPD hospitalization and all-cause mortality were constant over the follow-up time.

Conclusion

The GOLD 2007 classification was better than the GOLD 2011 and 2017 classifications at predicting COPD hospitalization and all-cause mortality.

The Ability of Different Scoring Systems to Predict Mortality in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients: A Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a leading cause of mortality, therefore the prediction of mortality in COPD patients is crucial. In the current study, the abilities of different categorization systems to predict mortality in stable COPD patients from a prospective cohort were compared.

METHODS

The ability to predict mortality was compared in terms of discrimination by Harrell's C (HC) index and calibration using graphical comparison among the GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) 2011, GOLD 2017, GOLD grade, BODE (BMI, Airflow Obstruction, Dyspnea, Exercise), updated BODE, BODEx (BMI, Airflow Obstruction, Dyspnea, Exacerbation), e-BODE (Exacerbation and BODE), ADO (Age, Dyspnea, Airflow Obstruction), COPD prognostic index (CPI), and simplified/optimized B-AE-D (BMI, Acute Exacerbation, Dyspnea) indexes.

RESULTS

The study included 520 patients, of whom 63 died during a median 40-month follow-up period. Combined prediction systems exhibited higher discrimination properties than single predictors. The CPI exhibited the highest with a HC of 0.768, followed by the simplified B-AE-D (HC 0.761), ADO (HC 0.760), and optimized B-AE-D (HC 0.756). The BODE and its variants other than the ADO exhibited relatively lower HCs (0.656-0.705), and GOLD exhibited the lowest discrimination ability among the combined indices (HCs 0.628-0.637). Subjective symptom questionnaires such as the modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) scale (HC 0.693) and SGRQ (HC 0.679) exhibited the highest ability to predict mortality among the single indices.

CONCLUSION

The ADO, simplified B-AE-D, optimized B-AE-D, and GOLD 2017 exhibited good calibration properties, but the CPI did not. The simplified and optimized B-AE-Ds and the ADO index had good discrimination and calibration properties for the prediction of mortality in stable COPD patients.

Efficacy of umeclidinium/vilanterol versus umeclidinium and salmeterol monotherapies in symptomatic patients with COPD not receiving inhaled corticosteroids: the EMAX randomised trial

BACKGROUND

Prospective evidence is lacking regarding incremental benefits of long-acting dual- versus mono-bronchodilation in improving symptoms and preventing short-term disease worsening/treatment failure in low exacerbation risk patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) not receiving inhaled corticosteroids.

METHODS

The 24-week, double-blind, double-dummy, parallel-group Early MAXimisation of bronchodilation for improving COPD stability (EMAX) trial randomised patients at low exacerbation risk not receiving inhaled corticosteroids, to umeclidinium/vilanterol 62.5/25 μg once-daily, umeclidinium 62.5 μg once-daily or salmeterol 50 μg twice-daily. The primary endpoint was trough forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) at Week 24. The study was also powered for the secondary endpoint of Transition Dyspnoea Index at Week 24. Other efficacy assessments included spirometry, symptoms, heath status and short-term disease worsening measured by the composite endpoint of clinically important deterioration using three definitions.

RESULTS

Change from baseline in trough FEV1 at Week 24 was 66 mL (95% confidence interval [CI]: 43, 89) and 141 mL (95% CI: 118, 164) greater with umeclidinium/vilanterol versus umeclidinium and salmeterol, respectively (both p < 0.001). Umeclidinium/vilanterol demonstrated consistent improvements in Transition Dyspnoea Index versus both monotherapies at Week 24 (vs umeclidinium: 0.37 [95% CI: 0.06, 0.68], p = 0.018; vs salmeterol: 0.45 [95% CI: 0.15, 0.76], p = 0.004) and all other symptom measures at all time points. Regardless of the clinically important deterioration definition considered, umeclidinium/vilanterol significantly reduced the risk of a first clinically important deterioration compared with umeclidinium (by 16-25% [p < 0.01]) and salmeterol (by 26-41% [p < 0.001]). Safety profiles were similar between treatments.

CONCLUSIONS

Umeclidinium/vilanterol consistently provides early and sustained improvements in lung function and symptoms and reduces the risk of deterioration/treatment failure versus umeclidinium or salmeterol in symptomatic patients with low exacerbation risk not receiving inhaled corticosteroids. These findings suggest a potential for early use of dual bronchodilators to help optimise therapy in this patient group.

Prognosis of COPD depends on severity of exacerbation history: A population-based analysis

BACKGROUND

Differences in previous exacerbation history may influence prognosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We hypothesized that prognosis differs between individuals with a history of only medically treated exacerbations (moderate exacerbations) and those with a history of hospitalised exacerbations (severe exacerbations).

METHODS

We included 98 614 adults from the Copenhagen General Population Study and assessed risk of moderate and severe exacerbations, pneumonia hospitalisation, and respiratory and all-cause mortality from 2003 until 2013 according to exacerbation history.

RESULTS

Among 6545 individuals with COPD, 6290 had no exacerbations in the preceding year, 109 had one moderate exacerbation, 108 had two or more moderate exacerbations, and 38 had one or more severe exacerbations. During 9.4 years of follow-up, we observed 926 moderate and 244 severe exacerbations, 477 pneumonias, and 707 deaths, including 69 from respiratory disease. Compared to individuals without previous exacerbations, lung function and symptom adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for future moderate exacerbation were 4.68 (95% confidence interval:3.31-6.62) for individuals with one previous moderate exacerbation, 21 (13-33) for individuals with two or more previous moderate exacerbations, and 5.30 (3.44-8.15) for individuals with one or more previous severe exacerbations. Corresponding HRs were 1.62(0.78-3.34), 1.29(0.57-2.89), and 5.43 (2.56-12) for severe exacerbation, 1.86(1.06-3.27), 1.74(1.01-2.99), and 4.85 (2.94-8.02) for pneumonia, 0.53(0.10-2.99), 1.65(0.53-5.17), and 2.98 (1.14-7.83) for respiratory mortality, and 1.34(0.79-2.29), 1.57(1.00-2.47), and 1.49 (0.85-2.62) for all-cause mortality, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Individuals with COPD and a history of hospitalised exacerbations carried the poorest prognosis compared to those with a history of only medically treated exacerbations, suggesting difference in risk profile.

Prevalence and prognostic ability of the GOLD 2017 classification compared to the GOLD 2011 classification in a Norwegian COPD cohort

Rationale

The Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 2017 is based on an ABCD assessment tool of symptoms and exacerbation history and grade 1–4 of airflow limitation severity, facilitating classification either into 4 groups (ABCD) or 16 groups (1A-4D). We aimed to compare the GOLD 2011, GOLD 2017 ABCD, and GOLD 2017 1A-4D classifications in terms of their distribution and prediction of mortality and hospitalizations.

Methods

In the GenKOLS study, 912 COPD patients with FEV1 less than 80% of the predicted answered questionnaires and performed lung function testing in 2003–2005. The patients were recruited from a hospital patient registry (n=662) and from the general population (n=250), followed up until 2011 with respect to all-cause and respiratory mortality, and all-cause and respiratory hospitalizations. We performed logistic regression and receiver operating curve (ROC) analyses for the different classifications with estimations of area under the curve (AUC) for comparisons.

Results

Mean age at baseline was 60 years (SD 11), 55% were male. Mean duration of follow-up was 91 months. By GOLD 2011, 21% were classified as group A, 29% group B, 6% group C, and 43% as group D, corresponding percentages for GOLD 2017 were: 25%, 52%, 3%, and 20%. The GOLD 2011 classification had higher AUC values than the GOLD 2017 group ABCD classification for respiratory mortality and hospitalization, but after inclusion of airflow limitation severity in GOLD 2017 groups 2A–4D, AUC values were significantly higher with GOLD 2017.

Conclusion

In a clinically relevant sample of COPD patients, the GOLD 2017 classification doubles the prevalence of group B and halves the prevalence of groups C and D as compared to the GOLD 2011 classification. The prediction of respiratory mortality and respiratory hospitalization was better for GOLD 2017 2A–4D taking airflow limitation severity into account, as compared to GOLD 2017 ABCD and GOLD 2011.

Long-term cost and utility consequences of short-term clinically important deterioration in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: results from the TORCH study

Purpose: Clinically important deterioration (CID) in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a novel composite endpoint that assesses disease stability. The association between short-term CID and future economic and quality of life (QoL) outcomes has not been previously assessed. This analysis considers 3-year data from the TOwards a Revolution in COPD Health (TORCH) study, to examine this question. Patients and methods: This post hoc analysis of TORCH (NCT00268216) compared costs and utilities at 3 years among patients without CID (CID-) and with CID (CID+) at 24 weeks. A positive CID status was defined as either: a deterioration in forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) of ≥100 mL from baseline; or a ≥4-unit increase from baseline in St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) total score; or the incidence of a moderate/severe exacerbation. Patients from all treatment arms were included. Utility change was based on the EQ-5D utility index. Costs were based on healthcare resource utilization from 24 weeks to end of follow-up combined with unit costs for the UK (2016 GBP), and reported as per patient per year (PPPY). Adjusted estimates were generated controlling for baseline characteristics, treatment assignment, and number of CID criteria met. Results: Overall, 3,769 patients completed the study and were included in the analysis (stable CID- patients, n=1,832; unstable CID+ patients, n=1,937). At the end of follow-up, CID- patients had higher mean (95% confidence interval [CI]) utility scores than CID+ patients (0.752 [0.738, 0.765] vs 0.697 [0.685, 0.71]; difference +0.054; P<0.001), and lower costs PPPY (£538 vs £916; difference: £378 [95% CI: £244, £521]; P<0.001). The cost differential was primarily driven by the difference in general hospital ward days (P=0.003). Conclusion: This study demonstrated that achieving early stability in COPD by preventing short-term CID is associated with better preservation of future QoL alongside reduced healthcare service costs.

Rate of Forced Expiratory Volume in One Second and Forced Expiratory Volume in One Second/Forced Vital Capacity Decline among Indonesian Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease after a Year of Treatment

Background:

The rate of decline in lung function in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients showed more profound decline than normal individuals. However, a 1-year lung function among Indonesian patients with COPD has not been elucidated.

Aim:

This study attempted to determine the rate of lung function decline in terms of obstruction variable among COPD patients after a 1-year of treatment.

Materials and Methods:

This retrospective cohort study measures the rate of decline in forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) and ratio of FEV1 to forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC) in COPD patients at COPD Outpatient Clinic Persahabatan Hospital after 1-year of treatment.

Results:

There were 31 COPD patients with the prevalence of 1-year declined FEV1 and FEV1/FVC which were 83.9% and 51.6%, respectively. Among 1-year declined lung function group, there were significant (P < 0.05) decline in FEV1 (121.53 ± 120 ml/year) and in FEV1/FVC (2.75 ± 0.47%). The rate of decline in FEV1 was more prevalent in Group D, while the rate of decline in FEV1/FVC was more prevalent in Group B. No significant associations were found between sex, age, respiratory complaints, smoking history, Brinkman index, type of cigarette, comorbid, educational level, diagnosed age, body mass index, symptoms-based COPD classification, and risk-based COPD classification, with the rate of decline in FEV1 and FEV1/FVC.

Conclusions:

Most patients had statistically significant rate of decline in FEV1 and FEV1/FVC within 1-year of COPD treatment. This study recognized an unfavorable prognosis in terms of irreversible deteriorating lung function of COPD patients despite therapeutic management.

Validity of the GOLD 2017 classification in the prediction of mortality and respiratory hospitalization in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Background: The Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) released an updated document in 2017 that excluded the spirometric parameter in the classification of patients. The validity of this new classification system in predicting mortality and respiratory hospitalization is still uncertain. Methods: Outpatients (n=149) with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) who underwent spirometry and six-minutes walking test from October 2011 to September 2013 were enrolled. The overall mortality and rate of respiratory hospitalization over a median of 61 months were analyzed. Kaplan-Meier survival analyses, receiver operaing curve analyses with areas under the curve (AUCs), and logistic regression analyses for GOLD 2007, GOLD 2011, GOLD 2017, and/or BODE index were performed to evaluate their abilities to predict mortality and respiratory hospitalization. Results: Forty-two (53.2%) patients in 2011 GOLD C or D group were categorized into 2017 GOLD A or B group. The odds ratios of GOLD 2017 group C and group D relative to group A were 7.55 (95% CI, 1.25-45.8) and 25.0 (95% CI, 6.01-102.9) for respiratory hospitalization. Patients in GOLD 2017 group A and group B had significantly better survival (log-rank test, p<0.001) compared with patients in group D; however, survival among patients in GOLD 2007 groups and GOLD 2011 groups was comparable. The AUC values for GOLD 2007, GOLD 2011, GOLD 2017, and BODE index were 0.573, 0.624, 0.691, 0.692 for mortality (p=0.013) and 0.697, 0.707, 0.741, and 0.754 for respiratory hospitalization (p=0.296), respectively. Conclusion: The new GOLD classification may perform better than the previous classifications in terms of predicting mortality and respiratory hospitalization.

Impact of prior and concurrent medication on exacerbation risk with long-acting bronchodilators in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a post hoc analysis

BACKGROUND

Symptomatic patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and low exacerbation risk still have disease instability, which can be improved with better bronchodilation. We evaluated two long-acting bronchodilators individually and in combination on reducing exacerbation risk and the potential impact of concurrent medication in these patients.

METHODS

Integrated post hoc intent-to-treat (ITT) analysis of data from two large 24-week, randomized placebo (PBO)-controlled trials (NCT01313637, NCT01313650). Symptomatic patients with moderate-to-very-severe COPD with/without an exacerbation history were randomized (2:3:3:3) to once-daily: PBO, umeclidinium/vilanterol (UMEC/VI 62.5/25 μg [NCT01313650] or 125/25 μg [NCT01313637]), UMEC (62.5 [NCT01313650] or 125 μg [NCT01313637]) or VI (25 μg) via the ELLIPTA inhaler. Medication subgroups were segmented by treatment status at screening: a) maintenance-naïve or on maintenance medications, b) inhaled corticosteroid [ICS]-free or ICS-treated, c) low or high albuterol use based on median run-in use (< 3.6 or ≥ 3.6 puffs/day). Time to first moderate/severe exacerbation (Cox proportional hazard model) and change from baseline in trough forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1; mixed model repeated measures) were analyzed. Safety was also assessed.

RESULTS

Of 3021 patients (ITT population; UMEC/VI: n = 816; UMEC: n = 825; VI: n = 825; PBO: n = 555), 36% had a recent exacerbation history, 33% were maintenance-naïve, 51% were ICS-free. Mean baseline albuterol use was 5.1 puffs/day. In the ITT population, UMEC/VI, UMEC, and VI reduced the risk of a first exacerbation versus PBO by 58, 44, and 39%, respectively (all p < 0.05). UMEC/VI provided significant risk reductions versus PBO in all subgroups. VI had no benefit versus PBO in maintenance-naïve, ICS-free, and low rescue use patients and was significantly less effective than UMEC/VI in these subgroups. UMEC had no significant benefit versus PBO in maintenance-naïve and ICS-free patients. All bronchodilators improved FEV1 versus PBO, and UMEC/VI significantly improved FEV1 versus both monotherapies across all populations studied (p < 0.05). All bronchodilators were similarly well tolerated.

CONCLUSIONS

Results suggest that UMEC/VI reduces exacerbation risk versus PBO more consistently across medication subgroups than UMEC or VI, particularly in patients with no/low concurrent medication use. Confirmed prospectively, these findings may support first-line use of dual bronchodilation therapy in symptomatic low-risk patients.