Geographical distribution of fertility rates in 70 low-income, lower-middle-income, and upper-middle-income countries, 2010-16: a subnational analysis of cross-sectional surveys

Future malaria environmental suitability in Africa is sensitive to hydrology

Changes in climate shift the geographic locations that are suitable for malaria transmission because of the thermal constraints on vector Anopheles mosquitos and Plasmodium spp. malaria parasites and the lack of availability of surface water for vector breeding. Previous Africa-wide assessments have tended to solely represent surface water using precipitation, ignoring many important hydrological processes. Here, we applied a validated and weighted ensemble of global hydrological and climate models to estimate present and future areas of hydroclimatic suitability for malaria transmission. With explicit surface water representation, we predict a net decrease in areas suitable for malaria transmission from 2025 onward, greater sensitivity to future greenhouse gas emissions, and different, more complex, malaria transmission patterns. Areas of malaria transmission that are projected to change are smaller than those estimated by precipitation-based estimates but are associated with greater changes in transmission season lengths.

Net benefit of smaller human populations to environmental integrity and individual health and wellbeing

Introduction

The global human population is still growing such that our collective enterprise is driving environmental catastrophe. Despite a decline in average population growth rate, we are still experiencing the highest annual increase of global human population size in the history of our species-averaging an additional 84 million people per year since 1990. No review to date has accumulated the available evidence describing the associations between increasing population and environmental decline, nor solutions for mitigating the problems arising.

Methods

We summarize the available evidence of the relationships between human population size and growth and environmental integrity, human prosperity and wellbeing, and climate change. We used PubMed, Google Scholar, and Web of Science to identify all relevant peer-reviewed and gray-literature sources examining the consequences of human population size and growth on the biosphere. We reviewed papers describing and quantifying the risks associated with population growth, especially relating to climate change.

Results

These risks are global in scale, such as greenhouse-gas emissions, climate disruption, pollution, loss of biodiversity, and spread of disease-all potentially catastrophic for human standards of living, health, and general wellbeing. The trends increasing the risks of global population growth are country development, demographics, maternal education, access to family planning, and child and maternal health.

Conclusion

Support for nations still going through a demographic transition is required to ensure progress occurs within planetary boundaries and promotes equity and human rights. Ensuring the wellbeing for all under this aim itself will lower population growth and further promote environmental sustainability.

Spatial-temporal analysis and spatial drivers of hepatitis-related deaths in 183 countries, 2000-2019

Hepatitis is the seventh leading cause of mortality worldwide and is the only communicable disease where mortality is increasing, yet the long-term spatial-temporal variation at global scale and its possible causes, i.e., drivers, remain unknown. Firstly, this study employed the measure of spatial autocorrelation, Moran's I, and the measure of local spatial cluster, Getis-Ord Gi*, to characterize the spatial variation of mortality due to hepatitis in 183 countries globally for years 2000, 2010, 2015 and 2019. Then, a novel spatial statistical method, named the Geographical Detector, was utilized to investigate eight possible influencing factors, i.e., risk factors, of the spatial-temporal variation of mortality due to hepatitis. The results showed significant disparities of hepatitis-related mortality rates among countries. Hot spots, representing locations with higher mortality rates, were consistently observed in Africa, East Asia, and Southeast Asia, while the cold spots, representing locations with lower mortality rates, were predominantly found in Europe and the Americas. Potential spatial drivers of hepatitis mortality, identified by geographical detector, include "health expenditure", "universal health coverage", and "per capita income". However, "hepatitis B immunization" and "total population" were not identified as significant spatial drivers for hepatitis mortality The findings highlighted the critical role of socioeconomic factors in the variations in hepatitis mortality, and pointed out relative importance of increasing health expenditure, per capita income, and improve universal health coverage on alleviating global hepatitis-related mortality.

Reimbursement of elective egg freezing from health care systems: Beyond simplistic claims

France is the first country to offer elective egg freezing for nonmedical reasons under public health coverage. However, this decision deserves in‐depth scrutiny in the future because the cost‐beneficial profile is yet unknown.

Small-area estimation and analysis of HIV/AIDS indicators for precise geographical targeting of health interventions in Nigeria. a spatial microsimulation approach

BACKGROUND

Precise geographical targeting is well recognised as an indispensable intervention strategy for achieving many Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This is more cogent for health-related goals such as the reduction of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, which exhibits substantial spatial heterogeneity at various spatial scales (including at microscale levels). Despite the dire data limitations in Low and Middle Income Countries (LMICs), it is essential to produce fine-scale estimates of health-related indicators such as HIV/AIDS. Existing small-area estimates (SAEs) incorporate limited synthesis of the spatial and socio-behavioural aspects of the HIV/AIDS pandemic and/or are not adequately grounded in international indicator frameworks for sustainable development initiatives. They are, therefore, of limited policy-relevance, not least because of their inability to provide necessary fine-scale socio-spatial disaggregation of relevant indicators.

METHODS

The current study attempts to overcome these challenges through innovative utilisation of gridded demographic datasets for SAEs as well as the mapping of standard HIV/AIDS indicators in LMICs using spatial microsimulation (SMS).

RESULTS

The result is a spatially enriched synthetic individual-level population of the study area as well as microscale estimates of four standard HIV/AIDS and sexual behaviour indicators. The analysis of these indicators follows similar studies with the added advantage of mapping fine-grained spatial patterns to facilitate precise geographical targeting of relevant interventions. In doing so, the need to explicate socio-spatial variations through proper socioeconomic disaggregation of data is reiterated.

CONCLUSIONS

In addition to creating SAEs of standard health-related indicators from disparate multivariate data, the outputs make it possible to establish more robust links (even at individual levels) with other mesoscale models, thereby enabling spatial analytics to be more responsive to evidence-based policymaking in LMICs. It is hoped that international organisations concerned with producing SDG-related indicators for LMICs move towards SAEs of such metrics using methods like SMS.

The Impact of Sociodemographic, Macroeconomic, and Health Status and Resources on Infant Mortality Rates in Oman: Evidence from 1980 to 2022

BACKGROUND

The infant mortality rate (IMR) is an important reflection of the well-being of infants and the overall health of the population. This study aims to examine the macroeconomic (ME), sociodemographic (SD), and health status and resources (HSR) effects on IMR, as well as how they may interact with each other.

METHODS

A retrospective time-series study using yearly data for Oman from 1980 to 2022. Partial Least Squares-Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) was utilized to develop the exploratory model of the determinants of IMR.

RESULTS

The model indicates that HSR determinants directly, but negatively, affect IMR (β = -0.617, p < 0.001). SD directly and positively affects IMR (β = 0.447, p < 0.001). ME only indirectly affects IMR (β = -0.854, p < 0.001). ME determinants also exert some direct influences on both HSR (β = 0.722, p < 0.001) and SD (β = -0.916, p < 0.001) determinants.

CONCLUSIONS

This study has indicated that IMR is a multi-faceted issue. It also highlighted the interplay of numerous variables and their influence on IMR, particularly the role that social status, the health sector, and the wealth of the country and its population play in reducing IMR. These findings indicate that an integrated policy that addresses socioeconomic and health-related factors and the overall ME environment is necessary for the health and well-being of the children and the population overall in Oman.

Respiratory functions and health risk assessment in inhalational exposure to vinyl acetate in the process of carpet manufacturing using Monte Carlo simulations

Vinyl acetate (VA) is a volatile compound and the main compound of the carpenter's glue. VA causes upper respiratory tract irritation, cough, and hoarseness in occupational exposure. As Iran is one of the biggest carpet producers in the world, this study was carried out to determine the inhalational health risk for employees exposed to VA. To the best of our knowledge, this was the first health risk assessment and the first evaluation of the lung functions and respiratory symptoms in employees exposed to VA. In the six finishing shops of carpet manufacturing industry in Kashan city, Iran the cross-sectional studies were conducted in 2022. The subjects comprised of forty male employees exposed to VA and of forty non-exposed employees in the reference group. VA analyses in the workers' breathing zones were performed based on the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) 1453 Method. VA concentrations were measured using Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS). Inhalational risk assessment to VA was performed using the United States Environmental Protection Agency method and the Monte Carlo simulations. Respiratory functions were determined using the spirometry indices. In the exposed employees, considerably higher prevalence rates of pulmonary symptoms were observed in comparison with the control group. Statistical analysis showed a remarkable difference between lung function parameters measured in the case and the control groups. The VA Hazard Quotient (HQ) values for all working posts, except the quality control unit, were > 1 indicating the substantial inhalational non-cancerogenic risk. The sensitivity analysis revealed that the VA concentrations and exposure time had the most significant contribution in the uncertainty assessment. Therefore, it is recommended to decrease exposure to VA concentrations and to reduce the working time of exposed employees.

Fertility intention and its affecting factors in China: A national cross-sectional survey

Introduction

Low fertility rate has become an inevitable problem globally. Although current policies have a certain effect on promoting fertility and raising the birth rate, the overall effect is not obvious to meet the need. Therefore, the exploration of fertility intention and its affecting factors is extremely significant.

Methods

This study collected demographic data and the intention of respondents to have a second children, which focused on the factors that could affect fertility issues. 11,031 respondents were divided into non-fertile group (n = 5062) and fertile group (n = 5969) according to whether they had children or not, and the fertility group (n = 5969) were divided into group with 1-2 children (n = 5293) and group with ≥3 children (n = 676) according to the number of children. Non-fertility respondents aged 26-40 (n = 1369) were divided to explore the factors affecting the second-children intention. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to determine the affecting factors.

Results

It was revealed that gender [Male: OR: 0.60, 95% CI: 0.54-0.68], age [26-40: OR: 16.0, 95% CI: 13.4-19.1; 41-60: OR: 233.8, 95% CI: 186.7-292.6; >60: OR: 105.6, 95% CI: 77.1-144.6], political status [Partisans: OR: 0.48, 95% CI: 0.42-0.54], highest educational level [Middle school: OR: 0.21, 95% CI: 0.17-0.26; College degree or above: OR: 0.09, 95% CI: 0.08-0.11], whether having chronic disease [Yes: OR: 1.95, 95% CI: 1.60-2.38] and depression [Mild depression: OR: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.56-0.72; Moderate depression: OR: 0.43, 95% CI: 0.36-0.53; Moderate to severe depression: OR: 0.45, 95% CI: 0.35-0.57; Severe depression: OR: 0.50, 95% CI: 0.33-0.74] were important factors affecting fertility intention. We found that age [26-40: OR: 0.11, 95% CI: 0.08-0.15; 41-60: OR: 0.15, 95% CI: 0.12-0.18; >60: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.66-0.99], region [Central China: OR: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.20-1.86; Western China: OR: 1.75, 95% CI: 1.41-2.18], resident place [Urban: OR: 0.59, 95% CI: 0.49-0.72], per capita monthly household income [6001-12000: OR: 0.63, 95% CI:0.46-0.83; ≥12,000: OR: 1.83, 95% CI: 1.20-2.80], political status [Non-partisans: OR: 0.24, 95% CI: 0.09-0.69], highest educational level [Middle school: OR: 0.36, 95%CI: 0.27-0.46; College degree or above: OR: 0.22, 95% CI: 0.17-0.30] and anxiety [Moderate anxiety: OR: 1.39, 95% CI: 1.04-1.88; Severe anxiety: OR: 2.19, 95% CI: 1.26-3.80] were the main affecting factors for choosing the number of children. Furthermore, the second-children intention investigation in respondents aged 26-40 showed that gender [Male: OR: 2.06, 95% CI: 1.67-2.53], resident place [Urban: OR: 0.59, 95% CI: 0.49-0.72], per capita monthly household income [≥12,000: OR: 1.86, 95% CI: 1.23-2.82] and pressure [Severe pressure: OR: 0.54, 95% CI: 0.34-0.85] were the important factors.

Conclusion

Region, educational level, psychological factors, income, political status and medical insurance were the important factors affecting the intention of fertility and the number of children. The government should take these factors into account when optimizing the existing policy.

Mapping the distribution of zero-dose children to assess the performance of vaccine delivery strategies and their relationships with measles incidence in Nigeria

Geographically precise identification and targeting of populations at risk of vaccine-preventable diseases has gained renewed attention within the global health community over the last few years. District level estimates of vaccination coverage and corresponding zero-dose prevalence constitute a potentially useful evidence base to evaluate the performance of vaccination strategies. These estimates are also valuable for identifying missed communities, hence enabling targeted interventions and better resource allocation. Here, we fit Bayesian geostatistical models to map the routine coverage of the first doses of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine (DTP1) and measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) and corresponding zero-dose estimates in Nigeria at 1x1 km resolution and the district level using geospatial data sets. We also map MCV1 coverage before and after the 2019 measles vaccination campaign in the northern states to further explore variations in routine vaccine coverage and to evaluate the effectiveness of both routine immunization (RI) and campaigns in reaching zero-dose children. Additionally, we map the spatial distributions of reported measles cases during 2018 to 2020 and explore their relationships with MCV zero-dose prevalence to highlight the public health implications of varying performance of vaccination strategies across the country. Our analysis revealed strong similarities between the spatial distributions of DTP and MCV zero dose prevalence, with districts with the highest prevalence concentrated mostly in the northwest and the northeast, but also in other areas such as Lagos state and the Federal Capital Territory. Although the 2019 campaign reduced MCV zero-dose prevalence substantially in the north, pockets of vulnerabilities remained in areas that had among the highest prevalence prior to the campaign. Importantly, we found strong correlations between measles case counts and MCV RI zero-dose estimates, which provides a strong indication that measles incidence in the country is mostly affected by RI coverage. Our analyses reveal an urgent and highly significant need to strengthen the country's RI program as a longer-term measure for disease control, whilst ensuring effective campaigns in the short term.

Prevalence and factors associated with the use of long-acting reversible and permanent contraceptive methods among women who desire no more children in high fertility countries in sub-saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

The proportion of women with family planning needs increased from 74 to 76% between 2000 and 2019, and this improvement has not transcended to a fertility rate stall or decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In the face of a continuous increase in the fertility rate in SSA, population experts agreed that the efficient use of reliable family planning methods such as long-acting reversible and permanent contraceptive methods (LARC/PMs) could help reduce the high fertility rate and associated adverse reproductive health outcomes in the region. However, despite the effectiveness of LARC/PMs, its use remains elusive in SSA. Thus, this study examines the prevalence and factors associated with the use of LARC/PMs among women who desire no more children in high-fertility countries in SSA.

METHODS

Secondary datasets from the demographic health surveys conducted in 20 countries in SSA between 2010 and 2019 were included in the study. A total sample size of 46,290 sexually active women of reproductive age who desire no more children and who met the study inclusion criteria was pooled and analysed. Prevalence of LARC/PMs use was displayed using a graph whilst binary logistic regression was used to determine the associated factors, and results were presented as unadjusted odds ratio and adjusted odds ratio with a statistical significance of p < 0.05.

RESULTS

The prevalence of LARC/PMs use among women who desire no more children was 7.5%. Ranging from 20.9% in Senegal and as low as 0.4% in Congo. Women within the richest wealth index [aOR = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.03-1.36] and those exposed to mass media [aOR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.41-1.68] had higher odds of LARC/PMs use among sexually active women of reproductive age who desire no more children compared to those within poorest wealth index and women with no mass media exposure.

CONCLUSION

The study concluded that LARC/PMs use among sexually active women who desire no more children was very low, and women within the richest wealth index and those with mass media exposure were likely to use LARC/PMs. Interventions that will encourage using LARC/PMs should be prioritised to reduce fertility rates in SSA.

A population-level data linkage study to explore the association between health facility level factors and unintended pregnancy in Bangladesh

The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of health facility-level factors, including the availability of long-acting modern contraceptives (LAMC) at the nearest health facility and its distance from women's homes, on the occurrence of unintended pregnancy that resulted in a live birth. We analysed the 2017/18 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey data linked with the 2017 Bangladesh Health Facility Survey. The weighted sample comprised 5051 women of reproductive age, who had at least one live birth within 3 years of the survey. The outcome variable was women's intention to conceive at their most recent pregnancy that ended with a live birth. The major explanatory variables were the health facility level factors. A multi-level multinomial logistic regression model was used to assess the association of the outcome variable with explanatory variables adjusting for individual, household, and community-level factors. Nearly 21% of the total respondents reported that their most recent live birth was unintended at conception. Better health facility management systems and health facility infrastructure were found to be 14-30% protective of unintended pregnancy that resulted in a live birth. LAMC availability at the nearest health facility was associated with a 31% reduction (95% CI 0.50-0.92) in the likelihood of an unwanted pregnancy that resulted in a live birth. Health facility readiness to provide LAMC was also associated with a 14-16% reduction in unintended pregnancies that ended with a birth. The likelihood of unintended pregnancy that resulted in a live birth increased around 20-22% with the increased distance of the nearest health facility providing LAMC from the women's homes.The availability of health facilities near women's homes and access to LAMC can significantly reduce unintended pregnancy. Policies and programs to ensure access and affordability of LAMC across current health facilities and to increase the number of health facilities are recommended.

Targeted policy intervention for reducing red meat consumption: conflicts and trade-offs

BACKGROUND

There are a range of policies and guidelines focused on meat consumption which aim to tackle health and environmental issues. Policies are often siloed in nature and propose universal limits on consumption. Despite this, there will be a number of conflicts and trade-offs between interest groups. This study explores secondary impacts associated with guidelines issued by the World Cancer Research Fund and assesses the utility of a targeted policy intervention strategy for reducing red meat consumption.

METHODS

We used highly detailed consumption data of over 5,000 individuals from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey. We firstly compared individual consumption against the policy guidelines to identify demographic groups most likely to consume above recommended levels. We then synthetically modified the food diary data to investigate the secondary impacts of adherence to the recommendations by all individuals. We assessed changes in overall consumption, nutrient intake (iron, zinc, vitamin B12, vitamin B3, fat and saturated fat) and global warming potential. We also projected future impacts under various population projections.

RESULTS

We found that certain demographic groups are much more likely to exceed the recommendations and would therefore benefit from a targeted intervention approach. Our results provide a baseline for which the impacts of any meat substitute diets can be assessed against. Whilst secondary health benefits may be realised by reducing intake of certain nutrients (e.g. fats), negative impacts may occur due to the reduced intake of other nutrients (e.g. iron, zinc). Reduced overall consumption is likely to have implications for the wider meat industry whilst complementary impacts would occur in terms of reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Impacts will be counteracted or maybe even reversed by any substitute products, highlighting the need to carefully consider the suitability and impacts of meat-replacements.

CONCLUSION

The future structure of the meat industry will depend on how conflicts and trade-offs are addressed and how more holistic policy ideas are implemented. This research provides a framework for using demographic and consumption data to reduce negative trade-offs and improve policy effectiveness.

Mapping and determinants of consumption of egg and/or flesh foods and zero vegetables or fruits among young children in SSA

Zero vegetable or fruit and egg and/or flesh foods are the latest indicators for assessing infant and young child feeding practices. Understanding national and subnational heterogeneity and regional clustering in children with SSA is becoming increasingly essential for geographic targeting and policy prioritization. Geographical case identification, determinants, and impacts were all investigated. SSA children's consumption of vegetable or fruit, egg and/or flesh food, and both were low. In SSA, some portions of the Southern, South direction of the Western and Central regions have a lower weight of all bad conditions than others, although children continue to suffer in considerable numbers in all disadvantage circumstances. Children under the age of 1 year, from rural areas, uneducated families, and low income were all disadvantaged by both feeding techniques. To improve child nutrition status, multisectoral collaboration is essential. This framework allows for the tracking, planning, and implementation of nutritional treatments.

Understanding the relationship between social determinants of health and maternal mortality: Scientific Impact Paper No. 67

Within this document we use the terms pregnant woman and women's health. However, it is important to acknowledge that it is not only people who identify as women for whom it is necessary to access care. Obstetric and gynaecology services and delivery of care must therefore be appropriate, inclusive and sensitive to the needs of those individuals whose gender identity does not align with the sex they were assigned at birth.

Global, Regional, and National Estimates of Nutritional Deficiency Burden among Reproductive Women from 2010 to 2019

Women of reproductive age (15–49 years) are often considered a vulnerable population affected by nutritional deficiencies, impairing their health and that of their offspring. We briefly introduced (a) the incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) trends from 2010 to 2019 and (b) the correlation between sex differences and income levels and nutritional deficiencies of reproductive women firstly. Notably, the burden of overall nutritional deficiencies among reproductive women remained generally stable from 2010 to 2019, whereas the iodine and vitamin A deficiencies as a subcategory were associated with increased incidence rates and DALYs, respectively. A significant increasing trend occurred in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Turkey for incidence, and Western Sub-Saharan Africa and Zimbabwe had a strong increase for DALYs. Further analysis of the correlation between nutritional deficiency incidence and economic capacity showed that they were not correlated with the income of women themselves, as was the result of income difference with men. The results of this study will help to identify gaps in nutritional deficiency burden among reproductive women and facilitate the development of regional or national responses. Compared with economic capital, macroscopic political guarantees and social and cultural capital are important measures to remedy the nutritional deficiencies of reproductive women.

Sustainable Development of China’s Maternity Insurance System in the Context of Population Policy Changes: Using a Grounded Theory Approach

Background: Declining birth rates have become a challenge for many countries around the world. This study aimed to analyze the influencing factors of the sustainable development of the maternity insurance system and find ways to promote higher birth rates. Methods: We used four multi-stakeholder workshops and in-depth interviews to bring together three groups of people: maternity insurance system developers, implementers, and researchers. Then, we analyzed the factors influencing the sustainability of the maternity insurance system using grounded theory. Results: In this study, the most powerful and effective intervention measures for China in the short term include the policy of merging national health insurance with maternity insurance and a dynamic payment rate policy. In the long term, expanding the coverage of the maternity insurance system and improving the management level of the maternity insurance fund are effective intervention measures. Conclusion: This study subdivides the factors influencing the sustainable development of the maternity insurance system, which has certain theoretical significance and can be used as the theoretical basis for quantitative and empirical research model construction in the future.

Global estimates of pregnancies at risk of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infection in 2020 and changes in risk patterns since 2000

BACKGROUND

Women are at risk of severe adverse pregnancy outcomes attributable to Plasmodium spp. infection in malaria-endemic areas. Malaria control efforts since 2000 have aimed to reduce this burden of disease.

METHODS

We used data from the Malaria Atlas Project and WorldPop to calculate global pregnancies at-risk of Plasmodium spp. infection. We categorised pregnancies as occurring in areas of stable and unstable P. falciparum and P. vivax transmission. We further stratified stable endemicity as hypo-endemic, meso-endemic, hyper-endemic, or holo-endemic, and estimated pregnancies at risk in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2017, and 2020.

FINDINGS

In 2020, globally 120.4M pregnancies were at risk of P. falciparum, two-thirds (81.0M, 67.3%) were in areas of stable transmission; 85 2M pregnancies were at risk of P. vivax, 93.9% (80.0M) were in areas of stable transmission. An estimated 64.6M pregnancies were in areas with both P. falciparum and P. vivax transmission. The number of pregnancies at risk of each of P. falciparum and P. vivax worldwide decreased between 2000 and 2020, with the exception of sub-Saharan Africa, where the total number of pregnancies at risk of P. falciparum increased from 37 3M in 2000 to 52 4M in 2020.

INTERPRETATION

Historic investments in malaria control have reduced the number of women at risk of malaria in pregnancy in all endemic regions except sub-Saharan Africa. Population growth in Africa has outpaced reductions in malaria prevalence. Interventions that reduce the risk of malaria in pregnancy are needed as much today as ever.