Geospatial digital monitoring of COVID-19 cases at high spatiotemporal resolution

SARS-CoV-2 Infection and the Risk of New Chronic Conditions: Insights from a Longitudinal Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND

The post-acute impact of SARS-CoV-2 infections on chronic conditions remains poorly understood, particularly in general populations.

OBJECTIVES

Our primary aim was to assess the association between SARS-CoV-2 infections and new diagnoses of chronic conditions. Our two secondary aims were to explore geographic variations in this association and to assess the association between SARS-CoV-2 infections and the exacerbation of pre-existing conditions.

METHODS

This longitudinal study used data from 8086 participants of the Specchio-COVID-19 cohort in the canton of Geneva, Switzerland (2021-2023). Mixed-effects logistic regressions and geographically weighted regressions adjusted for sociodemographic, socioeconomic, and healthcare access covariates were used to analyze self-reported SARS-CoV-2 infections, new diagnoses of chronic conditions, and the exacerbation of pre-existing ones.

RESULTS

Participants reporting a SARS-CoV-2 infection were more likely to be diagnosed with a new chronic condition compared to those who did not report an infection (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 2.15, 95% CI 1.43-3.23, adjusted p-value = 0.002). Notable geographic variations were identified in the association between SARS-CoV-2 infections and new diagnoses. While a positive association was initially observed between SARS-CoV-2 infections and exacerbation of pre-existing chronic conditions, this association did not remain significant after adjusting p-values for multiple comparisons.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings contribute to understanding COVID-19's post-acute impact on chronic conditions, highlighting the need for targeted health management approaches and calling for tailored public health strategies to address the pandemic's long-term effects.

Environmental and geographical factors influencing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 over 2 years: a fine-scale spatiotemporal analysis

Introduction

Since its emergence in late 2019, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has led to a global health crisis, affecting millions and reshaping societies and economies worldwide. Investigating the determinants of SARS-CoV-2 diffusion and their spatiotemporal dynamics at high spatial resolution is critical for public health and policymaking.

Methods

This study analyses 194,682 georeferenced SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR tests from March 2020 and April 2022 in the canton of Vaud, Switzerland. We characterized five distinct pandemic periods using metrics of spatial and temporal clustering like inverse Shannon entropy, the Hoover index, Lloyd's index of mean crowding, and the modified space-time DBSCAN algorithm. We assessed the demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental factors contributing to cluster persistence during each period using eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), to consider non-linear and spatial effects.

Results

Our findings reveal important variations in the spatial and temporal clustering of cases. Notably, areas with flatter epidemics had higher total attack rate. Air pollution emerged as a factor showing a consistent positive association with higher cluster persistence, substantiated by both immission models and, to a lesser extent, tropospheric NO2 estimations. Factors including population density, testing rates, and geographical coordinates, also showed important positive associations with higher cluster persistence. The socioeconomic index showed no significant contribution to cluster persistence, suggesting its limited role in the observed dynamics, which warrants further research.

Discussion

Overall, the determinants of cluster persistence remained across the study periods. These findings highlight the need for effective air quality management strategies to mitigate air pollution's adverse impacts on public health, particularly in the context of respiratory viral diseases like COVID-19.

Identifying spatial heterogeneity of COVID-19 transmission clusters and their built-environment features at the neighbourhood scale

The identification of high-risk areas for infectious disease transmission and its built-environment features are crucial for targeted surveillance and early prevention efforts. While previous research has explored the association between infectious disease incidence and urban built environment, the investigation of spatial heterogeneity of built-environment features in high-risk areas has been insufficient. This paper aims to address this gap by analysing the spatial heterogeneity of COVID-19 clusters in Shanghai at the neighbourhood scale and examining associated built-environment features. Using a spatiotemporal clustering algorithm, the study analysed 1395 reported cases in Shanghai from March 6 to March 17, 2022. Both global Poisson regression (GPR) and geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR) models were applied to examine the association between built-environment variables and the size of COVID-19 clusters. Our findings suggest that larger COVID-19 clusters emerging in the suburbs compared with the downtown and multiple built-environment features are significantly associated with this pattern. Specifically, neighbourhoods with a higher proportion of commercial, public service and industrial land, higher centrality of metro stations, and proximity to hospitals are positively associated with larger COVID-19 clusters, while neighbourhoods with higher land use mix and green/open spaces density are associated with smaller COVID-19 clusters. Moreover, we identified that metro stations with high centrality present the highest risk in the downtown, while commercial and public service places exhibit the highest risk in the suburbs. By highlighting the overlooked spatial heterogeneity of built-environment features for high-risk areas, this study aims to provide valuable guidance for public health departments in implementing place-based interventions to effectively prevent the spread of potential epidemics.

The utility of Zip4 codes in spatial epidemiological analysis

There are many public health situations within the United States that require fine geographical scale data to effectively inform response and intervention strategies. However, a condition for accessing and analyzing such data, especially when multiple institutions are involved, is being able to preserve a degree of spatial privacy and confidentiality. Hospitals and state health departments, who are generally the custodians of these fine-scale health data, are sometimes understandably hesitant to collaborate with each other due to these concerns. This paper looks at the utility and pitfalls of using Zip4 codes, a data layer often included as it is believed to be "safe", as a source for sharing fine-scale spatial health data that enables privacy preservation while maintaining a suitable precision for spatial analysis. While the Zip4 is widely supplied, researchers seldom utilize it. Nor is its spatial characteristics known by data guardians. To address this gap, we use the context of a near-real time spatial response to an emerging health threat to show how the Zip4 aggregation preserves an underlying spatial structure making it potentially suitable dataset for analysis. Our results suggest that based on the density of urbanization, Zip4 centroids are within 150 meters of the real location almost 99% of the time. Spatial analysis experiments performed on these Zip4 data suggest a far more insightful geographic output than if using more commonly used aggregation units such as street lines and census block groups. However, this improvement in analytical output comes at a spatial privy cost as Zip4 centroids have a higher potential of compromising spatial anonymity with 73% of addresses having a spatial k anonymity value less than 5 when compared to other aggregations. We conclude that while offers an exciting opportunity to share data between organizations, researchers and analysts need to be made aware of the potential for serious confidentiality violations.

Exploration of the COVID-19 pandemic at the neighborhood level in an intra-urban setting

The COVID-19 pandemic represents a worldwide threat to health. Since its onset in 2019, the pandemic has proceeded in different phases, which have been shaped by a complex set of influencing factors, including public health and social measures, the emergence of new virus variants, and seasonality. Understanding the development of COVID-19 incidence and its spatiotemporal patterns at a neighborhood level is crucial for local health authorities to identify high-risk areas and develop tailored mitigation strategies. However, analyses at the neighborhood level are scarce and mostly limited to specific phases of the pandemic. The aim of this study was to explore the development of COVID-19 incidence and spatiotemporal patterns of incidence at a neighborhood scale in an intra-urban setting over several pandemic phases (March 2020-December 2021). We used reported COVID-19 case data from the health department of the district Berlin-Neukölln, Germany, additional socio-demographic data, and text documents and materials on implemented public health and social measures. We examined incidence over time in the context of the measures and other influencing factors, with a particular focus on age groups. We used incidence maps and spatial scan statistics to reveal changing spatiotemporal patterns. Our results show that several factors may have influenced the development of COVID-19 incidence. In particular, the far-reaching measures for contact reduction showed a substantial impact on incidence in Neukölln. We observed several age group-specific effects: school closures had an effect on incidence in the younger population (< 18 years), whereas the start of the vaccination campaign had an impact primarily on incidence among the elderly (> 65  years). The spatial analysis revealed that high-risk areas were heterogeneously distributed across the district. The location of high-risk areas also changed across the pandemic phases. In this study, existing intra-urban studies were supplemented by our investigation of the course of the pandemic and the underlying processes at a small scale over a long period of time. Our findings provide new insights for public health authorities, community planners, and policymakers about the spatiotemporal development of the COVID-19 pandemic at the neighborhood level. These insights are crucial for guiding decision-makers in implementing mitigation strategies.

Internet of things (IoT) imbedded point-of-care SARS-CoV-2 testing in the pandemic and post-pandemic era

The outbreaks of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant in China have revealed a high rate of asymptomatic cases, making isolation and quarantine measures exceedingly difficult. Public health surveillance and intervention measures will require rapid and accurate testing preferably on-site using point-of-care tests (POCTs) technology for SARS-CoV-2 variants. However, delayed and/or inaccurate surveillance data is a major obstacle blocking the large-scale implementation of POCTs in curbing spread of infectious pathogens and reducing mortality during an outbreak. To determine levels of community transmission and timely strategies accordingly, highly sensitive and specific POCT embedded with the internet of things (IoT) technology could enable on-site screening and real-time data collection. A new Rapid Amplification with Sensitivity And Portability point-of-care test (RASAP-POCT) system based on thermal convection PCR is the first IoT-based isothermal nucleic acid amplification POCT, which can provide test results within 20-30 min using saliva and/or nasopharyngeal swab samples without nucleic acid extraction. With the IoT-imbedded feature, the RASAP-POCT system can be integrated easily and smoothly with China's existing mobile-phone-based contact tracing system, which has previously proved to be highly effective in maintaining the dynamic zero-COVID policy. Current regulatory guidelines and rules should be modified to accelerate the adoption of new technologies under an emergency use authorization (EUA).

Spatiotemporal clusters and the socioeconomic determinants of COVID-19 in Toronto neighbourhoods, Canada

The aim of this study is to identify spatiotemporal clusters and the socioeconomic drivers of COVID-19 in Toronto. Geographical, epidemiological, and socioeconomic data from the 140 neighbourhoods in Toronto were used in this study. We used local and global Moran's I, and space-time scan statistic to identify spatial and spatiotemporal clusters of COVID-19. We also used global (spatial regression models), and local geographically weighted regression (GWR) and Multiscale Geographically weighted regression (MGWR) models to identify the globally and locally varying socioeconomic drivers of COVID-19. The global regression model identified a lower percentage of educated people and a higher percentage of immigrants in the neighbourhoods as significant predictors of COVID-19. MGWR shows the best fit model to explain the variables affecting COVID-19. The findings imply that a single intervention package for the entire area would not be an effective strategy for controlling COVID-19; a locally adaptable intervention package would be beneficial.

How Spatial Epidemiology Helps Understand Infectious Human Disease Transmission

Both directly and indirectly transmitted infectious diseases in humans are spatial-related. Spatial dimensions include: distances between susceptible humans and the environments shared by people, contaminated materials, and infectious animal species. Therefore, spatial concepts in managing and understanding emerging infectious diseases are crucial. Recently, due to the improvements in computing performance and statistical approaches, there are new possibilities regarding the visualization and analysis of disease spatial data. This review provides commonly used spatial or spatial-temporal approaches in managing infectious diseases. It covers four sections, namely: visualization, overall clustering, hot spot detection, and risk factor identification. The first three sections provide methods and epidemiological applications for both point data (i.e., individual data) and aggregate data (i.e., summaries of individual points). The last section focuses on the spatial regression methods adjusted for neighbour effects or spatial heterogeneity and their implementation. Understanding spatial-temporal variations in the spread of infectious diseases have three positive impacts on the management of diseases. These are: surveillance system improvements, the generation of hypotheses and approvals, and the establishment of prevention and control strategies. Notably, ethics and data quality have to be considered before applying spatial-temporal methods. Developing differential global positioning system methods and optimizing Bayesian estimations are future directions.

Detection of Spatiotemporal Clusters of COVID-19-Associated Symptoms and Prevention Using a Participatory Surveillance App: Protocol for the @choum Study

BACKGROUND

The early detection of clusters of infectious diseases such as the SARS-CoV-2-related COVID-19 disease can promote timely testing recommendation compliance and help to prevent disease outbreaks. Prior research revealed the potential of COVID-19 participatory syndromic surveillance systems to complement traditional surveillance systems. However, most existing systems did not integrate geographic information at a local scale, which could improve the management of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is to detect active and emerging spatiotemporal clusters of COVID-19-associated symptoms, and to examine (a posteriori) the association between the clusters' characteristics and sociodemographic and environmental determinants.

METHODS

This report presents the methodology and development of the @choum (English: "achoo") study, evaluating an epidemiological digital surveillance tool to detect and prevent clusters of individuals (target sample size, N=5000), aged 18 years or above, with COVID-19-associated symptoms living and/or working in the canton of Geneva, Switzerland. The tool is a 5-minute survey integrated into a free and secure mobile app (CoronApp-HUG). Participants are enrolled through a comprehensive communication campaign conducted throughout the 12-month data collection phase. Participants register to the tool by providing electronic informed consent and nonsensitive information (gender, age, geographically masked addresses). Symptomatic participants can then report COVID-19-associated symptoms at their onset (eg, symptoms type, test date) by tapping on the @choum button. Those who have not yet been tested are offered the possibility to be informed on their cluster status (information returned by daily automated clustering analysis). At each participation step, participants are redirected to the official COVID-19 recommendations websites. Geospatial clustering analyses are performed using the modified space-time density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (MST-DBSCAN) algorithm.

RESULTS

The study began on September 1, 2020, and will be completed on February 28, 2022. Multiple tests performed at various time points throughout the 5-month preparation phase have helped to improve the tool's user experience and the accuracy of the clustering analyses. A 1-month pilot study performed among 38 pharmacists working in 7 Geneva-based pharmacies confirmed the proper functioning of the tool. Since the tool's launch to the entire population of Geneva on February 11, 2021, data are being collected and clusters are being carefully monitored. The primary study outcomes are expected to be published in mid-2022.

CONCLUSIONS

The @choum study evaluates an innovative participatory epidemiological digital surveillance tool to detect and prevent clusters of COVID-19-associated symptoms. @choum collects precise geographic information while protecting the user's privacy by using geomasking methods. By providing an evidence base to inform citizens and local authorities on areas potentially facing a high COVID-19 burden, the tool supports the targeted allocation of public health resources and promotes testing.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/30444.

Size and duration of COVID-19 clusters go along with a high SARS-CoV-2 viral load: A spatio-temporal investigation in Vaud state, Switzerland

To understand the geographical and temporal spread of SARS-CoV-2 during the first documented wave of infection in the state of Vaud, Switzerland, we analyzed clusters of positive cases using the precise residential location of 33,651 individuals tested (RT-PCR) between January 10 and June 30, 2020. We used a prospective Poisson space-time scan statistic (SaTScan) and a Modified Space-Time Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Application with Noise (MST-DBSCAN) to identify both space-time and transmission clusters, and estimated cluster duration, transmission behavior (emergence, growth, reduction, etc.) and relative risk. For each cluster, we computed the number of individuals, the median age of individuals and their viral load. Among the 1684 space-time clusters identified, 457 (27.1%) were significant (p ≤ 0.05), such that they harbored a higher relative risk of infection within the cluster than compared to regions outside the cluster. Clusters lasted a median of 11 days (IQR 7-13) and included a median of 12 individuals per cluster (IQR 5-20). The majority of significant clusters (n = 260; 56.9%) had at least one person with an extremely high viral load (>1 billion copies/ml). Those clusters were considerably larger (median of 17 infected individuals, p < 0.001) than clusters with individuals showing a viral load below 1 million copies/ml (median of three infected individuals). The highest viral loads were found in clusters with the lowest average age group considered in the investigation, while clusters with the highest average age had low to middle viral load. In 20 significant clusters, the viral load of the three first cases was below 100,000 copies/ml, suggesting that subjects with fewer than 100,000 copies/ml may still be contagious. Notably, the dynamics of transmission clusters made it possible to identify three diffusion zones, which predominantly differentiated between rural and urban areas, the latter being more prone to persistence and expansion, which may result in the emergence of new clusters nearby. The use of geographic information is key for public health decision makers in mitigating the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. This study suggests that early localization of clusters may help implement targeted protective measures limiting the spread of the virus.

Detecting COVID-19 Clusters at High Spatiotemporal Resolution, New York City, New York, USA, June-July 2020

A surveillance system that uses census tract resolution and the SaTScan prospective space-time scan statistic detected clusters of increasing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 test percent positivity in New York City, NY, USA. Clusters included one in which patients attended the same social gathering and another that led to targeted testing and outreach.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of COVID-19 Spread with Emerging Hotspot Analysis and Space–Time Cube Models in East Java, Indonesia

In this research, we analyzed COVID-19 distribution patterns based on hotspots and space–time cubes (STC) in East Java, Indonesia. The data were collected based on the East Java COVID-19 Radar report results from a four-month period, namely March, April, May, and June 2020. Hour, day, and date information were used as the basis of the analysis. We used two spatial analysis models: the emerging hotspot analysis and STC. Both techniques allow us to identify the hotspot cluster temporally. Three-dimensional visualizations can be used to determine the direction of spread of COVID-19 hotspots. The results showed that the spread of COVID-19 throughout East Java was centered in Surabaya, then mostly spread towards suburban areas and other cities. An emerging hotspot analysis was carried out to identify the patterns of COVID-19 hotspots in each bin. Both cities featured oscillating patterns and sporadic hotspots that accumulated over four months. This pattern indicates that newly infected patients always follow the recovery of previous COVID-19 patients and that the increase in the number of positive patients is higher when compared to patients who recover. The monthly hotspot analysis results yielded detailed COVID-19 spatiotemporal information and facilitated more in-depth analysis of events and policies in each location/time bin. The COVID-19 hotspot pattern in East Java, visually speaking, has an amoeba-like pattern. Many positive cases tend to be close to the city, in places with high road density, near trade and business facilities, financial storage, transportation, entertainment, and food venues. Determining the spatial and temporal resolution for the STC model is crucial because it affects the level of detail for the information of endemic disease distribution and is important for the emerging hotspot analysis results. We believe that similar research is still rare in Indonesia, although it has been done elsewhere, in different contexts and focuses.

Socioeconomically Disadvantaged Neighborhoods Face Increased Persistence of SARS-CoV-2 Clusters

Objective: To investigate the association between socioeconomic deprivation and the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 clusters.

Methods: We analyzed 3,355 SARS-CoV-2 positive test results in the state of Geneva (Switzerland) from February 26 to April 30, 2020. We used a spatiotemporal cluster detection algorithm to monitor SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics and defined spatial cluster persistence as the time in days from emergence to disappearance. Using spatial cluster persistence measured outcome and a deprivation index based on neighborhood-level census socioeconomic data, stratified survival functions were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier estimator. Population density adjusted Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression models were then used to examine the association between neighborhood socioeconomic deprivation and persistence of SARS-CoV-2 clusters.

Results: SARS-CoV-2 clusters persisted significantly longer in socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods. In the Cox PH model, the standardized deprivation index was associated with an increased spatial cluster persistence (hazard ratio [HR], 1.43 [95% CI, 1.28–1.59]). The adjusted tercile-specific deprivation index HR was 1.82 [95% CI, 1.56–2.17].

Conclusions: The increased risk of infection of disadvantaged individuals may also be due to the persistence of community transmission. These findings further highlight the need for interventions mitigating inequalities in the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and thus, of serious illness and mortality.

Rapid Antibody-Based COVID-19 Mass Surveillance: Relevance, Challenges, and Prospects in a Pandemic and Post-Pandemic World

The aggressive outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) as COVID-19 (coronavirus disease-2019) pandemic demands rapid and simplified testing tools for its effective management. Increased mass testing and surveillance are crucial for controlling the disease spread, obtaining better pandemic statistics, and developing realistic epidemiological models. Despite the advantages of nucleic acid- and antigen-based tests such as accuracy, specificity, and non-invasive approaches of sample collection, they can only detect active infections. Antibodies (immunoglobulins) are produced by the host immune system within a few days after infection and persist in the blood for at least several weeks after infection resolution. Antibody-based tests have provided a substitute and effective method of ultra-rapid detection for multiple contagious disease outbreaks in the past, including viral diseases such as SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) and MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome). Thus, although not highly suitable for early diagnosis, antibody-based methods can be utilized to detect past infections hidden in the population, including asymptomatic ones. In an active community spread scenario of a disease that can provide a bigger window for mass detections and a practical approach for continuous surveillance. These factors encouraged researchers to investigate means of improving antibody-based rapid tests and employ them as reliable, reproducible, sensitive, specific, and economic tools for COVID-19 mass testing and surveillance. The development and integration of such immunoglobulin-based tests can transform the pandemic diagnosis by moving the same out of the clinics and laboratories into community testing sites and homes. This review discusses the principle, technology, and strategies being used in antibody-based testing at present. It also underlines the immense prospect of immunoglobulin-based testing and the efficacy of repeated planned deployment in pandemic management and post-pandemic sustainable screenings globally.