A network meta-analysis of secondary attack rates of COVID-19 in different contact environments

Secondary SARS-CoV-2 transmission by type of exposure setting among university students

Objective: We aimed to investigate the association between exposure settings and secondary SARS-CoV-2 transmission among university students. Participants: Students diagnosed with COVID-19 (N = 139) and randomly selected controls (N = 262) identified between April 4-December 5, 2021. Methods: This was a 1:2 case-control study. Exposure setting was categorized as academic/occupational, household, social/athletics, and multiple settings. Transmission was assessed by record of positive SARS-CoV-2 test among contacts within 14 days after most recent exposure. Results: Compared to exposure in the academic/occupational setting, all other settings had significantly higher odds of secondary SARS-CoV-2 transmission, adjusting for contact vaccination status, index case vaccination status, and contact sex (p-values ≤ 0.05). In the adjusted model, contact sex was found to be significantly associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Conclusion: Among university students, academic/occupational settings had the lowest odds of SARS-CoV-2 transmission given safety measures in place. Future studies should analyze SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequence data to verify sources of infection.

Oro-faecal transmission of SARS-CoV-2: A systematic review of studies employing viral culture from gastrointestinal and other potential oro-faecal sources and evidence for transmission to humans

The extent to which the oro-faecal route contributes to the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is not established.We systematically reviewed the evidence on the presence of infectious SARS-CoV-2 in faeces and other gastrointestinal sources by examining studies that used viral culture to investigate the presence of replication-competent virus in these samples. We conducted searches in the WHO COVID-19 Database, LitCovid, medRxiv, and Google Scholar for SARS-CoV-2 using keywords and associated synonyms, with a search date up to 28 November 2023.We included 13 studies involving 229 COVID-19 subjects - providing 308 faecal or rectal swab SARS-CoV2 reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR)-positive samples tested with viral culture. The methods used for viral culture across the studies were heterogeneous. Three studies (two cohorts and one case series) reported observing replication-competent SARS-CoV-2 confirmed by quantitative RT-PCR (qPCR) and whole-genome sequencing, and qPCR including appropriate cycle threshold changes. Overall, six (1.9%) of 308 faecal samples subjected to cell culture showed replication-competent virus. One study found replication-competent samples from one immunocompromised patient. No studies were identified demonstrating direct evidence of oro-faecal transmission to humans.Our review found a relatively low frequency of replication-competent SARS-CoV-2 in faecal and other gastrointestinal sources. Although it is biologically plausible, more research is needed using standardized cell culture methods, control groups, adequate follow-up, and robust epidemiologic methods, including whether secondary infections occurred, to determine the role of the oro-faecal route in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

Estimating the household secondary attack rate and serial interval of COVID-19 using social media

We propose a method to estimate the household secondary attack rate (hSAR) of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom based on activity on the social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter. Conventional methods of hSAR estimation are resource intensive, requiring regular contact tracing of COVID-19 cases. Our proposed framework provides a complementary method that does not rely on conventional contact tracing or laboratory involvement, including the collection, processing, and analysis of biological samples. We use a text classifier to identify reports of people tweeting about themselves and/or members of their household having COVID-19 infections. A probabilistic analysis is then performed to estimate the hSAR based on the number of self or household, and self and household tweets of COVID-19 infection. The analysis includes adjustments for a reluctance of Twitter users to tweet about household members, and the possibility that the secondary infection was not acquired within the household. Experimental results for the UK, both monthly and weekly, are reported for the period from January 2020 to February 2022. Our results agree with previously reported hSAR estimates, varying with the primary variants of concern, e.g. delta and omicron. The serial interval (SI) is based on the time between the two tweets that indicate a primary and secondary infection. Experimental results, though larger than the consensus, are qualitatively similar. The estimation of hSAR and SI using social media data constitutes a new tool that may help in characterizing, forecasting and managing outbreaks and pandemics in a faster, affordable, and more efficient manner.

A network meta-analysis of risk factors of infection among close contacts of COVID-19

Objective

We aimed to use network meta-analysis to compare the impact of infection risk factors of close contacts with COVID-19, identify the most influential factors and rank their subgroups. It can provide a theoretical basis for the rapid and accurate tracking and management of close contacts.

Methods

We searched nine databases from December 1, 2019 to August 2, 2023, which only took Chinese and English studies into consideration. Odd ratios (ORs) were calculated from traditional meta-estimated secondary attack rates (SARs) for different risk factors, and risk ranking of these risk factors was calculated by the surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA).

Results

25 studies with 152647 participants identified. Among all risk factors, the SUCRA of type of contact was 69.6 % and ranked first. Among six types of contact, compared with transportation contact, medical contact, social contact and other, daily contact increased risk of infection by 12.11 (OR: 12.11, 95 % confidence interval (CI): 6.51-22.55), 7.76 (OR: 7.76, 95 % CI: 4.09-14.73), 4.65 (OR: 4.65, 95 % CI: 2.66-8.51) and 8.23 OR: 8.23, 95 % CI: 4.23-16.01) times, respectively. Overall, SUCRA ranks from highest to lowest as daily contact (94.7 %), contact with pollution subjects (78.4 %), social contact (60.8 %), medical contact (31.8 %), other (27.9 %), transportation contact (6.4 %).

Conclusion

The type of contact had the greatest impact on COVID-19 close contacts infection among the risk factors we included. Daily contact carried the greatest risk of infection among six types of contact, followed by contact with pollution subjects, social contact, other, medical contact and transportation contact. The results can provide scientific basis for rapid assess the risk of infection among close contacts based on fewer risk factors and pay attention to high-risk close contacts during management, thereby reducing tracking and management costs.

SARS-CoV-2 transmission modes: Why and how contamination occurs around shared meals and drinks?

In spite of prevention measures enacted all over the world to control the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak, including mask wearing, social distancing, hand hygiene, vaccination, and other precautions, the SARS-CoV-2 virus continues to spread globally at an unabated rate of about 1 million cases per day. The specificities of superspreading events as well as evidence of human-to-human, human-to-animal and animal-to-human transmission, indoors or outdoors, raise questions about a possibly neglected viral transmission route. In addition to inhaled aerosols, which are already recognized as key contributors to transmission, the oral route represents a strong candidate, in particular when meals and drinks are shared. In this review, we intend to discuss that significant quantities of virus dispersed by large droplets during discussions at festive gatherings could explain group contamination either directly or indirectly after deposition on surfaces, food, drinks, cutlery, and several other soiled vectors. We suggest that hand hygiene and sanitary practices around objects brought to the mouth and food also need to be taken into account in order to curb transmission.

Estimating the risk reduction of isolation on COVID-19 nonhousehold transmission and severe/critical illness in nonimmune individuals: September to November 2021

There is growing scientific interest in immunity mandates/passports (IMP) for viral diseases in light of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. IMP isolate those who remain nonimmune from various settings to reduce nonhousehold transmissions from the nonimmune and reduce severe/critical illness among the nonimmune. A major limitation in the scientific literature is that there are currently no methods to quantify how many nonimmune individuals need to be isolated to achieve these purported benefits. This paper develops a procedure for estimating the benefits of IMP using a novel variant of the number needed to treat which we call the number needed to isolate (NNI). We use data from the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to demonstrate the properties and utility of the NNI and to inform the debate about IMP. We focus on data from the European Union, United Kingdom, United States, Canada, Australia, and Israel during the fall 2021 when the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant predominated.

Spread of viruses, which measures are the most apt to control COVID-19?

The persistent debate about the modes of transmission of SARS-CoV2 and preventive measures has illustrated the limits of our knowledge regarding the measures to be implemented in the face of viral risk. Past and present (pandemic-related) scientific data underline the complexity of the phenomenon and its variability over time. Several factors contribute to the risk of transmission, starting with incidence in the general population (i.e., colonization pressure) and herd immunity. Other major factors include intensity of symptoms, interactions with the reservoir (proximity and duration of contact), the specific characteristics of the virus(es) involved, and a number of unpredictable elements (humidity, temperature, ventilation…). In this review, we will emphasize the difficulty of "standardizing" the situations that might explain the discrepancies found in the literature. We will show that the airborne route remains the main mode of transmission. Regarding preventive measures of prevention, while vaccination remains the cornerstone of the fight against viral outbreaks, we will remind the reader that wearing a mask is the main barrier measure and that the choice of type of mask depends on the risk situations. Finally, we believe that the recent pandemic should induce us in the future to modify our recommendations by adapting our measures in hospitals, not to the pathogen concerned, which is currently the case, but rather to the type of at-risk situation.

Association of healthcare worker behaviors with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) risk during four pandemic periods and characteristics associated with high-risk behaviors

In a large healthcare worker cohort, we quantified the association between behaviors and risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) during different pandemic phases, adjusting for prior infection and vaccination. Individual characteristics, including personal concerns, were associated with these behaviors. Public health messaging should target high-risk populations and behaviors as the pandemic evolves.