Detection of the spatiotemporal trends of mercury in Lake Erie fish communities: a Bayesian approach

Lake depth influences mercury and omega-3 levels in Walleye via resource utilization shifts

Elevated mercury levels in fish are correlated with their body size and trophic position, and with environmental parameters (e.g., catchment and lake properties). Much less is known how the variation of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) in fish is intertwined with environmental variables and mercury levels. We studied the linkages between catchment and lake properties and the variation of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA), docosahexanenoic acid (DHA) and mercury levels in Walleye (Percidae, Sander vitreus) from 30 lakes in the Province of Ontario, Canada. Walleye mercury and DHA levels correlated with fish length; thus, we used length-standardized mass fractions in the correlation analyses of lake and catchment properties and the intraspecific variation of mercury, EPA and DHA in Walleye. Overall, the data indicated that mercury, EPA and DHA levels in Walleye are linked to habitat availability, i.e., relative abundance of pelagic vs. littoral areas, and consequently, to differences of the reliance on pelagic vs. littoral or benthic food webs. The length-standardized mass fractions of mercury, EPA, and DHA increased with increasing maximum depth of a lake, which explained 35% of the total variation. Habitat availability may be integral in determining the foraging grounds and diet selection of Walleye, which in turn is linked with muscle EPA, DHA, and mercury levels, as well as the risk and benefits of consuming Walleye for humans. Thus, the findings have direct applicability to informing lake-specific consumption advisories for Walleye.

Increased mercury concentrations in walleye and yellow perch in lakes invaded by zebra mussels

Zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) are invasive species that alter ecosystems and food webs with the potential to affect aquatic mercury cycling and bioaccumulation in fishes, although the effect of zebra mussels on fish tissue mercury has not been tested in inland lakes. We assessed differences in fish tissue mercury concentrations and food webs in Minnesota lakes with and without zebra mussels while controlling for other lake and watershed characteristics. Mercury concentrations in adult walleye (Sander vitreus) and yellow perch (Perca flavescens) were 72 % and 157 % higher, respectively, in lakes containing zebra mussels compared to uninvaded lakes. Mercury in young of year (age-0) fish was also elevated, with mercury concentrations 97 % and 82 % higher in age-0 walleye and yellow perch, respectively, in zebra mussel lakes. Walleye mercury concentrations exceeded 0.22 ppm - a threshold triggering more restrictive human consumption advisories for sensitive populations - at a 23 % smaller size, and average-sized walleye (420 mm) exceeded this threshold at a rate of 77 % in invaded lakes, compared to 35 % in uninvaded lakes. Walleye and yellow perch relied more on littoral resources in lakes with zebra mussels but did not feed at meaningfully higher trophic levels. Increased fish tissue mercury in lakes invaded by zebra mussels have consequential implications for fisheries and human health.

Spatiotemporal variation in fish mercury contamination: Comparing approaches for crafting consumption advisories and assessing impairment

Mercury in fish is a serious human health concern. Mercury is a widespread contaminant that exceeds health effect thresholds in many fish species and waterbodies. The objectives were to determine the spatiotemporal variation of mercury in fish tissue for several fish species across thousands of lakes and to assess the potential use of fish length standardization and statistical models to improve fish consumption guidelines and impairments determinations in lake-rich areas. The results showed that fish length, species, ecoregion, lake size, latitude, color dissolved organic matter, water clarity, and zebra mussel presence influenced mercury concentrations. Fish mercury concentrations were generally higher from 1967 to 1990, and since 1990 there was no obvious trend. We found that a statistical model provided estimates of mean mercury concentrations by fish total length that were unbiased and with greater confidence than those based solely on sample statistics. The use of fish length standardization and inclusion of predictive models could improve precision and consistency of fish consumption guidelines and impairments determinations.

An assessment of temporal trends in mercury concentrations in fish

The importance of fish consumption as the primary pathway of human exposure to mercury and the establishment of fish consumption advisories to protect human health have led to large fish tissue monitoring programs worldwide. Data on fish tissue mercury concentrations collected by state, tribal, and provincial governments via contaminant monitoring programs have been compiled into large data bases by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Great Lakes National Monitoring Program Office (GLNPO), the Ontario Ministry of the Environment's Fish Contaminants Monitoring and Surveillance Program (FMSP), and many others. These data have been used by a wide range of governmental and academic investigators worldwide to examine long-term and recent trends in fish tissue mercury concentrations. The largest component of the trend literature is for North American freshwater species important in recreational fisheries. This review of temporal trends in fish tissue mercury concentrations focused on published results from freshwater fisheries of North America as well as marine fisheries worldwide. Trends in fish tissue mercury concentrations in North American lakes with marked overall decreases were reported over the period 1972-2016. These trends are consistent with reported mercury emission declines as well as trends in wet deposition across the U.S. and Canada. More recently, a leveling-off in the rate of decreases or increases in fish tissue mercury concentrations has been reported. Increased emissions of mercury from global sources beginning between 1990 and 1995, despite a decrease in North American emissions, have been advanced as an explanation for the observed changes in fish tissue trends. In addition to increased atmospheric deposition, the other factors identified to explain the observed mercury increases in the affected fish species include a systematic shift in the food-web structure with the introduction of non-native species, creating a new or expanding role for sediments as a net source for mercury. The influences of climate change have also been identified as contributing factors, including considerations such as increases in temperature (resulting in metabolic changes and higher uptake rates of methylmercury), increased rainfall intensity and runoff (hydrologic export of organic matter carrying Hg^II from watersheds to surface water), and water level fluctuations that alter either the methylation of mercury or the mobilization of monomethylmercury. The primary source of mercury exposure in the human diet in North America is from the commercial fish and seafood market which is dominated (>90%) by marine species. However, very little information is available on mercury trends in marine fisheries. Most of the data used in the published marine trend studies are assembled from earlier reports. The data collection efforts are generally intermittent, and the spatial and fish-size distribution of the target species vary widely. As a result, convincing evidence for the existence of fish tissue mercury trends in marine fish is generally lacking. However, there is some evidence from sampling of large, long-lived commercially-important fish showing both lower mercury concentrations in the North Atlantic in response to reduced anthropogenic mercury emission rates in North America and increases in fish tissue mercury concentrations over time in the North Pacific in response to increased mercury loading.

Mercury Concentrations in Sentinel Fish Exposed to Contaminated Sediments Under a Natural Recovery Strategy Within the St. Lawrence River Area of Concern at Cornwall, Ontario, Canada

Legacy mercury (Hg) sediment deposits are a long-term issue within the St. Lawrence River (Cornwall) area of concern with three depositional areas along the Cornwall, ON waterfront containing sediments that exceed the Ontario Sediment Quality Guidelines for Hg. Assessing the bioavailability of these Hg-contaminated sediments plays a crucial role in evaluating the effectiveness of the Cornwall Sediment Strategy based on a natural recovery approach. We collected specimens of fallfish (Semotilus corporalis), round goby (Neogobius melanostomus), and yellow perch (Perca flavescens) to assess spatial and temporal trends of Hg concentrations in various areas along the Cornwall waterfront, including zones of contaminated sediments and non-contaminated reference sites. This study revealed that (1) Hg concentrations in fish collected from the contaminated zones remain greater than those of fish from non-impacted locations, indicating that natural recovery is not yet achieved, (2) total Hg concentrations in yellow perch collected in 2016 were greater than those obtained during a previous assessment, indicating a reversal of the previously observed long-term declines, and (3) total Hg concentrations in yellow perch collected at the outlet of Gray's Creek compared with yellow perch from contaminated zones, suggesting other important inputs of Hg to the ecosystem than the legacy contaminated sediments.

A Bayesian assessment of polychlorinated biphenyl contamination of fish communities in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) contamination has historically posed constraints on the recreational and commercial fishing industry in the Great Lakes. Empirical evidence suggests that PCB contamination represents a greater health risk from fish consumption than other legacy contaminants. The present study attempts a rigorous assessment of the spatio-temporal PCB trends in multiple species across the Canadian waters of the Great Lakes. We applied a Bayesian modelling framework, whereby we initially used dynamic linear models to delineate PCB levels and rates of change, while accounting for the role of fish length and lipid content as covariates. We then implemented Bayesian hierarchical modelling to evaluate the temporal PCB trends during the dreissenid pre- and post-invasion periods, as well as the variability among and within the water bodies of the Great Lakes system. Our analysis indicates that Lake Ontario is characterized by the highest PCB levels among nearly all of the fish species examined. Historically contaminated local areas, designated as Areas of Concern, and embayments receiving riverine inputs displayed higher concentrations within each of the water bodies examined. The general temporal trend across the Great Lakes was that the high PCB concentrations during the early 1970s followed a declining trajectory throughout the late 1980s/early 1990s, likely as a result of the reductions in industrial emissions and other management actions. Nonetheless, after the late 1990s/early 2000s, our analysis provided evidence of a decline in the rate at which PCB concentrations in fish were dropping, accompanied by a gradual establishment of species-specific, steady-state concentrations, around which there is considerable year-to-year variability. The overall trends indicate that reduced contaminant emissions have brought about distinct beneficial changes in fish PCB concentrations, but past historical contamination along with other external or internal stressors (e.g., invasive species, climate change) continue to modulate the current levels, thereby posing potential risks to humans through fish consumption.

Mercury levels in herring gulls and fish: 42 years of spatio-temporal trends in the Great Lakes

Total mercury levels in aquatic birds and fish communities have been monitored across the Canadian Great Lakes by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) for the past 42 years (1974-2015). These data (22 sites) were used to examine spatio-temporal variability of mercury levels in herring gull (Larus argentatus) eggs, lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush), walleye (Sander vitreus), and rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax). Trends were quantified with dynamic linear models, which provided time-variant rates of change of mercury concentrations. Lipid content (in both fish and eggs) and length in fish were used as covariates in all models. For the first three decades, mercury levels in gull eggs and fish declined at all stations. In the 2000s, trends for herring gull eggs reversed at two sites in Lake Erie and two sites in Lake Ontario. Similar trend reversals in the 2000s were observed for lake trout in Lake Superior and at a single station in Lake Ontario. Mercury levels in lake trout continued to slowly decline at all of the remaining stations, except for Lake Huron, where the levels remained stable. A post-hoc Bayesian regression analysis suggests strong trophic interactions between herring gulls and rainbow smelt in Lake Superior and Lake Ontario, but also pinpoints the likelihood of a trophic decoupling in Lake Huron and Lake Erie. Continued monitoring of mercury levels in herring gulls and fish is required to consolidate these trophic shifts and further evaluate their broader implications.

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in Great Lakes fish: Levels, patterns, trends and implications for human exposure

Levels of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) were measured in edible portions of Great Lakes fish, with the goal of examining patterns/trends and evaluating implications for human exposure. A total of 470 fillets of 18 fish species collected from various parts of the Canadian waters of the Great Lakes between 2006 and 2013 were analyzed for 17 (expanded to 33 in 2009) PBDEs. For a limited number of species, fillet to whole body and fillet to eggs PBDEs were compared to examine pattern and concentration among tissue types. Levels and patterns of PBDEs varied dramatically within and among the 18 fish species. Bottom dwelling Common Carp (and White Sucker) exhibited the highest ∑PBDE levels (27-71ng/g). Lake Trout and Lake Whitefish from Lake Superior had higher levels than those from the other Great Lakes; otherwise the spatial trend was Lake Ontario≫Erie~Huron~Superior. The measured levels would result in restriction on consumption of only Common Carp from the Toronto waterfront area, which is in proximity to the most urbanised region on the Canadian side of the basin. Deca-BDE was the major congener in panfish, while BDE-47 was the major congener in top predators and its contribution to ∑PBDE increased with the contamination. Although ∑PBDE was related to fish length and lipid content when all measurements were pooled, the relationships were variable for individual sampling events (species/location/year). Whole body ∑PBDE for bottom dweller Brown Bullhead and Common Carp were 2.6-4.9 times greater and egg ∑PBDE for four fatty Salmon/Trout species were same to 6.5 times greater than the corresponding fillet concentrations. Levels of major lower brominated PBDEs appear to have declined in fish fillets by 46-74% between 2006/07 and 2012. Although PBDE in existing consumer items will remain in-use for a while, it will likely not result in appreciable accumulation of PBDEs in fish. Based on an overall assessment, regular monitoring of PBDEs in Great Lake fish can be replaced with targeted surveillance and focus can be shifted to other in-use flame retardants.

Is it appropriate to composite fish samples for mercury trend monitoring and consumption advisories?

Monitoring mercury levels in fish can be costly because variation by space, time, and fish type/size needs to be captured. Here, we explored if compositing fish samples to decrease analytical costs would reduce the effectiveness of the monitoring objectives. Six compositing methods were evaluated by applying them to an existing extensive dataset, and examining their performance in reproducing the fish consumption advisories and temporal trends. The methods resulted in varying amount (average 34-72%) of reductions in samples, but all (except one) reproduced advisories very well (96-97% of the advisories did not change or were one category more restrictive compared to analysis of individual samples). Similarly, the methods performed reasonably well in recreating temporal trends, especially when longer-term and frequent measurements were considered. The results indicate that compositing samples within 5cm fish size bins or retaining the largest/smallest individuals and compositing in-between samples in batches of 5 with decreasing fish size would be the best approaches. Based on the literature, the findings from this study are applicable to fillet, muscle plug and whole fish mercury monitoring studies. The compositing methods may also be suitable for monitoring Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) in fish. Overall, compositing fish samples for mercury monitoring could result in a substantial savings (approximately 60% of the analytical cost) and should be considered in fish mercury monitoring, especially in long-term programs or when study cost is a concern.

Projecting Fish Mercury Levels in the Province of Ontario, Canada and the Implications for Fish and Human Health

Fish mercury levels appear to be increasing in Ontario, Canada, which covers a wide geographical area and contains about 250 000 lakes including a share of the North American Great Lakes. Here we project 2050 mercury levels in Ontario fish, using the recently measured levels and rates of changes observed during the last 15 years, and present potential implications for fish and human health. Percentage of northern Ontario waterbodies where sublethal effects of mercury on fish can occur may increase by 2050 from 60% to >98% for Walleye (WE), 44% to 59-70% for Northern Pike (NP), and 70% to 76-92% for Lake Trout (LT). Ontario waterbodies with unrestricted fish consumption advisories for the general population may deteriorate from 24-76% to <1-33% for WE, 40-95% to 1-93% for NP, and 39-89% to 18-86% for LT. Similarly, Ontario waterbodies with do not eat advisories for the sensitive population may increase from 32-84% to 73-100% for WE, 9-72% to 12-100% for NP, and 19-71% to 24-89% for LT. Risk to health of Ontario fish and humans consuming these fish may increase substantially over the next few decades if the increasing mercury trend continues and updated advisories based on continued monitoring are not issued/followed.

A Bayesian assessment of the mercury and PCB temporal trends in lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and walleye (Sander vitreus) from lake Ontario, Ontario, Canada

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and total mercury (THg) are two of the most prevalent contaminants, resulting in restrictive advisories on consuming fish from the Laurentian Great Lakes. The goal of this study is to examine the temporal trends of the two contaminants in walleye (Sander vitreus) and lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) for Lake Ontario. We employed Bayesian inference techniques to parameterize three different strategies of time series analysis: dynamic linear, exponential decay, and mixed-order modeling. Our analysis sheds light on the role of different covariates (length, lipid content) that can potentially hamper the detection of the actual temporal patterns of fish contaminants. Both PCBs and mercury demonstrate decreasing temporal trends in lake trout males and females. Decreasing PCB trends are evident in walleye, but the mean annual mercury levels are characterized by a "wax and wane" pattern, suggesting that specific fish species may not act as bio-indicators for all contaminants. This finding may be attributed to the shifts in energy trophodynamics along with the food web alterations induced from the introduction of non-native species, the intricate nature of the prey-predator interactions, the periodicities of climate factors, and the year-to-year variability of the potentially significant fluxes from atmosphere or sediments. Finally, a meaningful risk assessment exercise will be to elucidate the role of within-lake fish contaminant variability and evaluate the potential bias introduced when drawing inference from pooled datasets.

Long-term changes in fish mercury levels in the historically impacted English-Wabigoon River system (Canada)

The English-Wabigoon River system in Northwestern Ontario, Canada, was one of the most heavily mercury-contaminated waterways in the world due to historical discharges in the 1960s from a chlor-alkali plant. This study examines long-term (1970-2010) monitoring data to assess temporal trends in mercury contamination in Walleye, Northern Pike and Lake Whitefish, three species important for sport and subsistence fishing in this region, using dynamic linear modeling and piecewise regression. For all lakes and species, there is a significant decline (36-94%) in mercury concentrations through time; however, there is evidence that this decline is either slowing down or levelling off. Concentrations in the English-Wabigoon fish are elevated, and may still present a potential health risk to humans consuming fish from this system. Various biotic and abiotic factors are examined as possible explanations to slowing rates of decline in mercury concentrations observed in the mid-1980s.

Temporal change estimation of mercury concentrations in northern pike (Esox lucius L.) in Swedish lakes

Adequate temporal trend analysis of mercury (Hg) in freshwater ecosystems is critical to evaluate if actions from the human society have affected Hg concentrations ([Hg]) in fresh water biota. This study examined temporal change in [Hg] in Northern pike (Esox lucius L.) in Swedish freshwater lakes between 1994 and 2006. To achieve this were lake-specific, multiple-linear-regression models used to estimate pike [Hg], including indicator variables representing time and fish weight and their interactions. This approach permitted estimation of the direction and magnitude of temporal changes in 25 lakes selected from the Swedish national database on Hg in freshwater biota. A significant increase was found in 36% of the studied lakes with an average increase in pike [Hg] of 3.7±6.7% per year that was found to be positively correlated with total organic carbon. For lakes with a significant temporal change the dataset was based on a mean of 30 fish, while for lakes with no temporal change it was based on a mean of 13 fish.

Twenty years of invasion: a review of round goby Neogobius melanostomus biology, spread and ecological implications

The round goby Neogobius melanostomus is one of the most wide-ranging invasive fish on earth, with substantial introduced populations within the Laurentian Great Lakes watershed, the Baltic Sea and several major European rivers. Rapid expansion and deleterious ecosystem effects have motivated extensive research on this species; here this research is synthesized. Maps of the global distribution are provided and the invasion history of N. melanostomus, which spread more rapidly at first in North America, but has undergone substantial expansion over the past decade in the Baltic Sea, is summarized. Meta-analyses comparing their size at age, diet, competitors and predators in North American and European ecosystems are provided. Size at age is region specific, with saline habitats typically supporting larger and faster growing individuals than fresh water. Neogobius melanostomus prey differs substantially between regions, demonstrating a capacity to adapt to locally abundant food sources. Neogobius melanostomus comprise at least 50% of the diet of eight taxa in at least one site or life stage; in total, 16 predator taxa are documented from the Laurentian Great Lakes v. five from Eurasia. Invasive N. melanostomus are the only common forage fish to heavily exploit mussels in the Laurentian Great Lakes and the Baltic Sea, facilitating the transfer of energy from mussels to higher trophic levels in both systems. Neogobius melanostomus morphology, life history, reproduction, habitat preferences, environmental tolerances, parasites, environmental effects, sampling strategies and management are also discussed. Neogobius melanostomus inhabit a wide range of temperate freshwater and brackish-water ecosystems and will probably continue to spread via ballast water, accidental bait release and natural dispersal worldwide. Climate change will probably enhance N. melanostomus expansion by elevating water temperatures closer to its energetic optimum of 26° C. Future research needs are presented; most pressing are evaluating the economic effects of N. melanostomus invasion, determining long-term population level effects of egg predation on game-fish recruitment and comparing several variables (density, ecological effects morphology and life history) among invaded ecosystems. This review provides a central reference as researchers continue studying N. melanostomus, often as examples for advancing basic ecology and invasion biology.

Temporal PCB and mercury trends in Lake Erie fish communities: a dynamic linear modeling analysis

We performed dynamic linear modeling analysis on fish contaminant data collected from the Ontario Ministry of the Environment and Environment Canada to examine long-term trends of total mercury (THg) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in Lake Erie. Several sport fish species (walleye, smallmouth bass, rainbow trout) with differences in their diet habits, food competition strategies and foraging patterns are characterized by weakly increasing trends of their THg levels in Lake Erie after the mid- or late 1990s. Similarly, our analysis shows that the decline rates of the PCB body burdens in white bass, smallmouth bass, freshwater drum and whitefish have slowed down or have switched to weakly increasing rates over the last decade. Our analysis also provides evidence that the rainbow trout and coho salmon PCB concentrations have been decreasing steadily but the associated rates were fairly weak. The systematic shifts in energy trophodynamics along with the food web alterations induced from the introduction of non-native species, the new role of the sediments as a net contaminant source, and the potentially significant fluxes from the atmosphere stand out as some of the hypotheses proposed to explain the limited Lake Erie response in recent years to the various contamination mitigation strategies.

Detection of temporal trends of α- and γ-chlordane in Lake Erie fish communities using dynamic linear modeling

Dynamic linear modeling (DLM) analysis was performed to identify the long-term temporal trends of two toxic components of the technical chlordane pesticide, α- and γ-chlordane, in skinless-boneless muscle tissues of a number of sport fish species in Lake Erie. Our analysis considers the fish length as a covariate of the chlordane concentrations. The α-chlordane models for the coho salmon, channel catfish, rainbow trout, and common carp showed continuously decreasing trends during the entire 30+ year survey period (1976-2007). The γ-chlordane models demonstrated similar trends for the coho salmon, channel catfish, and common carp. These fish species had higher levels of α- and γ-chlordane in their muscle tissues. The α- and γ-chlordane levels in freshwater drum, smallmouth bass, walleye, white bass, whitefish, and yellow perch decreased until the mid-1980s and hovered at levels around the detection limits for the remaining period. The pesticide biotransformation process, the reduction of contaminant emissions to the environment, the feeding habits of the different fish species, and the food-web alterations induced by the introduction of aquatic invasive species are some of the hypotheses proposed to explain the observed temporal trends in different fish species in Lake Erie.