Has the PSA wave already crashed upon us? Changes in the epidemiology of prostate cancer from 1985 to 1994 in central Italy

What is Hidden behind Urban and Semiurban Cancer Incidence and Mortality Differences in Central Italy?

Aims and backround

To analyze differences in cancer incidence and mortality between urban and semiurban municipalities in central Italy.

Methods and Study Design

Population-based survey in the provinces of Florence and Prato in Central Italy involving cancer patients diagnosed between 1985 to 1997 and cancer deaths from 1985 to 1998.

Results

Urban-semiurban incidence ratios were significantly high in both genders for all cancer sites combined (males 1.06, females 1.09), lung (1.11 and 1.37), Kaposi's sarcoma (1.96 and 2.39) and urinary bladder (1.23 and 1.44) and significantly low for stomach cancer (0.76 and 0.84). Among females, urban incidence excesses were present for breast, cervix uteri and skin melanoma and among males for prostate, Hodgkin disease, non-Hodgkin lymphomas and mesotheliomas. Most of the cancer mortality rate ratios corresponded to the incidence rate ratios.

Conclusions

We found that cancer risks and deaths were not homogeneously distributed in the analyzed area, but an urban gradient was present. Part of the differences can probably be attributed to environmental exposures and lifestyle.

Prostate Cancer Incidence Rates Have Started to Decrease in Central Italy

The widespread use of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing has dramatically changed the epidemiology of prostate cancer. Growing incidence rates have been documented in almost all western countries following the increased usage of PSA screening. In the United States after a period of huge increase in incidence, rates have decreased to values lower than those of the pre-PSA era. Similar changes have been documented also in the area of the Tuscany Cancer Registry, central Italy, where prostate cancer incidence rates doubled from the early 1990s to 2003 and afterwards decreased. This is the first evidence, to our knowledge, of a decline in prostate cancer incidence in Italy following the screening-related increase.

Population-based incidence and mortality cancer trends (1986–1997) from the network of Italian cancer registries

The objective of this study was to analyse incidence and mortality cancer trends in the Italian Network of Cancer Registries (about 8,000,000 inhabitants) during the period 1986-1997. Included were 525,645 newly diagnosed cancers and 269,902 cancer deaths (subjects > 14 years). Joinpoints (points in time where trend significantly changes from linearity) were found and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) used to summarize tendencies. Overall cancer incidence increased in both sexes and cancer mortality significantly decreased (since 1991 among men). Lung cancer showed significantly decreasing incidence (EAPC = -1.4%) and mortality (EAPC = -1.6%) among men and increasing trends among women. In women, breast cancer incidence significantly increased (EAPC= +1.7%) and mortality decreased since 1989 (EAPC= -2.0%). Stomach cancer incidence and mortality decreased in both sexes. Prostate incidence sharply increased since 1991 and mortality decreased. Colon cancer incidence increased and rectum mortality decreased significantly in both sexes. Significant increases in incidence were also found for kidney (up to 1991 among men), urinary bladder, skin epithelioma, melanoma, liver (up to 1993 among men), pancreas, mesothelioma, Kaposi's sarcoma (up to 1995 among men), testis, thyroid, non-Hodgkin's lymphomas and multiple myeloma. Mortality significantly decreased for cancers of the oral cavity and pharynx, oesophagus, liver (women), larynx (men), bone, cervix (since 1990), central nervous system, urinary bladder, thyroid, Hodgkin's lymphomas and leukaemias (men). Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma mortality increased in both sexes. In conclusion, most of the changes seen can be explained as the effect of changes in smoking habits and of the extension of secondary prevention activities. The Italian health care system will also have to cope with growing cancer diagnostic and therapeutic needs due to population ageing.

Time trends in cancer incidence and mortality in central Italy

Time trends in cancer incidence and mortality represent an essential tool for monitoring the changes in population lifestyle and in the environmental risks and the effectiveness of the health system on cancer control in a specific area. During 1985-1997 82 506 malignant tumours were diagnosed in the Tuscany Cancer Registry, central Italy (about 1 200 000 inhabitants) and 54 979 cancer deaths registered in the period 1985-1999 by the Regional Mortality Registry were analysed. A statistically significant decrease in incidence was evidenced for stomach and gallbladder in both sexes, and for oesophagus, larynx and lung among males. Significant increases were documented for melanomas of the skin, kidney and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in both sexes for colon, prostate and Kaposi's sarcoma among males and for breast, thyroid and multiple myeloma among females. Mortality decreased significantly for stomach and thyroid in both sexes and for oral cavity and pharynx, oesophagus, rectum, larynx, lung, bone, prostate, testis and Hodgkin's disease among males and colon, gallbladder and breast among females. Mortality increased for soft tissue, brain and multiple myeloma. In conclusion, most of these data can be explained as the effect of the modifications that occurred in smoking habits between the sexes and as the consequence of the primary and secondary prevention activities that are ongoing in the area.

International trends in prostate-cancer mortality in the "PSA ERA"

Incidence and mortality from prostate cancer were rising in most countries until the late 1980s. Following a number of advances in the management of prostate cancer, including introduction of the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test, there have been reports of declines in mortality in Canada, the United States and the United Kingdom. To investigate the extent to which this pattern was seen in other industrialised countries, we used routinely collected data to explore recent changes in prostate-cancer mortality. Trends in age-standardised death rates between 1979 and 1997 for men aged 50 to 79 years in 24 industrialised countries were compared using join point regression. Join point regression allows estimation of the annual percentage change in death rates and tests for significant changes in trend. During the period studied, age-standardised mortality increased at 1% to 2% per year in most countries. In 7 countries (Canada, United States, Austria, France, Germany, Italy and United Kingdom), a significant down-turn in age-standardised mortality was observed over the period 1988-1991. Trends in age-specific rates within these countries support a period effect on prostate-cancer mortality. Declines in mortality could result from any combination of either artefact, reduction in prostate-cancer incidence, a rise in competing causes of death or changes in the risk of death from prostate cancer. There are inconsistencies in the relationship between national mortality trends and uptake of PSA screening; further research is required to determine whether changes in death rates can be explained by international and secular variations in the treatment of prostate cancer.

Impact of screening on prostate cancer rates and trends

Widespread implementation of prostate cancer screening has affected several epidemiologic features of the disease including incidence, tumor and patient characteristics, patterns of care and outcomes. Some of these changes have been interpreted as evidence of the success of PSA testing as a cancer control strategy. Data are available from multiple sources to assess the association of early detection on recent prostate cancer rates and trends. National mortality data in the United States may be particularly informative because of the early and widespread adoption of PSA testing there. Incidence data from tumor registries and other regional resources are also relevant to this question. Case-control analyses and modeling of relevant rates and trends have recently been reported. Multiple sources of data show that prostate cancer incidence rates rose following the introduction of PSA testing. The average age at diagnosis has fallen, the proportion of advanced stage tumors has declined, the proportion of moderately differentiated tumors has increased, and patterns of care have changed accordingly. A decline in mortality began in the United States in 1991. The decline in mortality is well established but this recent trend may only retrace an increase in mortality that immediately preceded. The descriptive epidemiology of prostate cancer reveals many effects of the introduction of prostate cancer screening. Although the evidence suggests increased prostate cancer testing has yielded public health benefit, this has not yet been shown conclusively.