Climate-driven growth dynamics and trend reversal of Fagus sylvatica L. and Quercus cerris L. in a low-elevation beech forest in Central Italy

In highly climate-change-sensitive regions, such as the Mediterranean, increasing knowledge of climate-driven growth dynamics is required for habitat conservation and forecasting species adaptability under future climate change. In this study, we test a high spectrum of climatic signals, not only monthly and seasonal but also on a multi-year scale and include the single tree analysis to answer this issue, focusing on a low-elevation thermophilic old-growth beech forest surrounding the Bracciano Lake in Central Italy. Through a dendroecological and isotope analysis, we evaluate both short- and long-term sensitivity of F. sylvatica and the coexisting better-drought-adapted species Q. cerris to climatic and hydrological variability in terms of growth reduction and δ13C responses. After the 1990s, beech trees showed a climate-driven decrease in growth compared to oak, especially after 2003 (-20 % of basal area increment), with a significant growth trend reversal between the species. For F. sylvatica, the significant correlations with precipitation decreased, whereas for Q. cerris, they increased, with a higher number of trees positively influenced. However, the temperature highlighted more clearly the contrasting climate-growth correlation pattern between the two species. In F. sylvatica after the '90s, the negative effect of temperatures has significantly intensified, as shown by past summer values up to four years previously, involving about half of the trees. Surprisingly, the water-level fluctuations showed a highly significant influence on tree-ring growth in both species. Nevertheless, it reduced after the '90s. Finally, Q. cerris trees showed a significantly higher ability to recover their growth levels after extreme droughts (+55 %). The growth trend reversal and the shift in iWUE of the last years may point to potential changes in the future species composition, raising the need for climate-adaptive silviculture (e.g., selective thinning) to reduce growth decline, enhance resilience and favour the natural regeneration of the target species for habitat conservation.

Atmospheric methane isotopic record favors fossil sources flat in 1980s and 1990s with recent increase

Observations of atmospheric methane (CH4) since the late 1970s and measurements of CH4 trapped in ice and snow reveal a meteoric rise in concentration during much of the twentieth century. Since 1750, levels of atmospheric CH4 have more than doubled to current globally averaged concentration near 1,800 ppb. During the late 1980s and 1990s, the CH4 growth rate slowed substantially and was near or at zero between 1999 and 2006. There is no scientific consensus on the drivers of this slowdown. Here, we report measurements of the stable isotopic composition of atmospheric CH4 ((13)C/(12)C and D/H) from a rare air archive dating from 1977 to 1998. Together with more modern records of isotopic atmospheric CH4, we performed a time-dependent retrieval of methane fluxes spanning 25 y (1984-2009) using a 3D chemical transport model. This inversion results in a 24 [18, 27] Tg y(-1) CH4 increase in fugitive fossil fuel emissions since 1984 with most of this growth occurring after year 2000. This result is consistent with some bottom-up emissions inventories but not with recent estimates based on atmospheric ethane. In fact, when forced with decreasing emissions from fossil fuel sources our inversion estimates unreasonably high emissions in other sources. Further, the inversion estimates a decrease in biomass-burning emissions that could explain falling ethane abundance. A range of sensitivity tests suggests that these results are robust.

Unexpected Changes to the Global Methane Budget over the Past 2000 Years

We report a 2000-year Antarctic ice-core record of stable carbon isotope measurements in atmospheric methane (delta13CH4). Large delta13CH4 variations indicate that the methane budget varied unexpectedly during the late preindustrial Holocene (circa 0 to 1700 A.D.). During the first thousand years (0 to 1000 A.D.), delta13CH4 was at least 2 per mil enriched compared to expected values, and during the following 700 years, an about 2 per mil depletion occurred. Our modeled methane source partitioning implies that biomass burning emissions were high from 0 to 1000 A.D. but reduced by almost approximately 40% over the next 700 years. We suggest that both human activities and natural climate change influenced preindustrial biomass burning emissions and that these emissions have been previously understated in late preindustrial Holocene methane budget research.

The global methane cycle: isotopes and mixing ratios, sources and sinks

A review of the global cycle of methane is presented with emphasis on its isotopic composition. The history of methane mixing ratios, reconstructed from measurements of air trapped in ice-cores is described. The methane record now extends back to 420 kyr ago in the case of the Vostok ice cores from Antarctica. The trends in mixing ratios and in delta13C values are reported for the two Hemispheres. The increase of the atmospheric methane concentration over the past 200 years, and by 1% per year since 1978, reaching 1.7 ppmv in 1990 is underlined. The various methane sources are presented. Indeed the authors describe the methane emissions by bacterial activity under anaerobic conditions in wet environments (wetlands, bogs, tundra, rice paddies), in ruminant stomachs and termite guts, and that originating from fossil carbon sources, such as biomass burning, coal mining, industrial losses, automobile exhaust, sea floor vent, and volcanic emissions. Furthermore, the main sinks of methane in the troposphere, soils or waters via oxidation are also reported, and the corresponding kinetic isotope effects.