Predicting the vertical density structure of oceanic gravity current intrusions

Understanding the dynamics and structures in the deep ocean is one of the remaining challenges in oceanography and climate sciences. We present results from large-scale laboratory experiments of rotating down-slope gravity currents intruding into a two-layer stratified ambient, performed in the largest rotating tank in the world, the Coriolis Rotating Platform in Grenoble. By means of velocity and density measurements, we show that no mixing occurs once the current has detached from the boundary. The shape of the vertical density profile in the stratified receiving ambient enables to identify two distinct regimes: the first issued by laminar transport through Ekman dynamics, the second by turbulent transport due to intermittent dense water cascading. Vertical density gradients reveal a piece-wise linear dependence on the density anomaly for the turbulent transport, suggesting an advection-diffusion process. For the turbulent regime, the scale height is deduced and an analytical model based on the critical Froude number is proposed to predict its value. Results show that the total thickness of the intruding current is on average 2.5 times the scale height. For laminar intrusions the scale height diverges whereas the thickness of the intrusion is a few times the Ekman layer thickness. Comparing the intrusion scale height with its measured vertical extension has led to a criteria to distinguish between laminar and turbulent regimes, which is corroborated by two additional independent criteria, one based on the sign of the local vorticity and the other based on the local maxima of the vertical density gradient. The model allows us to connect laboratory experiments to deep sea observations, gravity currents and Meddies and emphasizes the importance of laboratory experiments in understanding climate dynamics.

The impacts of Persian Gulf water and ocean-atmosphere interactions on tropical cyclone intensification in the Arabian Sea

During the last two decades, the number of tropical cyclone (TC) events in the Arabian Sea has increased dramatically. These events have led to severe human and economic damage in Oman, Iran and Pakistan. Within this context, Gonu, Phet and Shaheen were the Arabian Sea's most destructive TCs on record, leading to a total of 6.07 billion USD in damages and 159 fatalities. Previous studies have mainly focused on atmospheric, sea surface temperature (SST) and anthropogenic impacts of TC generation and intensification. By contrast, oceanographic currents, Persian Gulf water outflow and the role of ocean-atmospheric interactions on the distribution of outflow water into the Arabian Sea and their impacts on TC intensification, are poorly understood. In order to address this issue, we use historical TC records, satellite data, atmospheric and reanalyzed oceanographic data to shed new light on the relationship between large-scale atmospheric forcing and ocean currents on TC intensification in the Arabian Sea. The results demonstrate that pre-monsoon TCs mainly occurred during co-existing La Niña, cold Indian Ocean Basin Model (IOBM) and anomalous northern hemisphere circulations over the Persian Gulf. By contrast, post-monsoon TCs were generally generated during warming acceleration period. Poleward movement of the monsoon belt provided the required humidity and energy for TC generation and increased upwelling events. Water salinity and temperature have increased in the north and northwestern parts of the Arabian Sea following rising upwelling events and a decrease in Persian Gulf outflow water depth. Rapid TC intensification has increased noticeably since 2007 and >72 % of cyclones have reached category 3 or more. We find that the rate of SST rise in the Arabian Sea is higher than the other parts of the northern Indian Ocean since 1998. SST and salinity in the Arabian Sea have been controlled by Persian Gulf outflow water and oceanographic currents. TC intensity is controlled by warm and saline (>36.6 PSU) water distribution patterns, mediated by eddy and jet currents. Rapid intensification of pre-monsoon TCs occurred by tracking to the north and northwest, with most landfalls occurring during this period. Post-monsoon TCs generally affect the center and the southwest of the Arabian Sea. The risk of intensive TCs manifests an increasing trend since 2007, therefore education programs via international platforms such as the International Ocean Institute (IOI) and UNESCO are required for the countries most at risk.

Burt J. Long-term, basin-scale salinity impacts from desalination in the Arabian/Persian Gulf

The nations on the shoreline of the Arabian/Persian Gulf are the world's largest users of desalination technologies, which are essential to meet their freshwater needs. Desalinated freshwater production is projected to rapidly increase in future decades. Thus, concerns have been raised that desalination activities may result in non-negligible long-term, basin-wide increases of salinity, which would have widespread detrimental effects on the Gulf marine ecosystems, with ripple effects on fisheries, as well as impacting the desalination activities themselves. We find that current yearly desalinated freshwater production amounts to about 2% of the net yearly evaporation from the Gulf. Projections to 2050 bring this value to 8%, leading to the possibility that, later in the second half of the century, desalinated freshwater production may exceed 10% of net evaporation, an amount which is comparable to interannual fluctuations in net evaporation. With the help of a model we examine several climatological scenarios, and we find that, under IPCC's SSP5-8.5 worst-case scenarios, end-of-century increases in air temperature may result in salinity increases comparable or larger to those produced by desalination activities. The same scenario suggests a reduced evaporation and an increased precipitation, which would have a mitigating effect. Finally we find that, owing to a strong overturning circulation, high-salinity waters are quickly flushed through the Strait of Hormuz. Thus, even in the worst-case scenarios, basin-scale salinity increases are unlikely to exceed 1 psu, and, under less extreme hypothesis, will likely remain well below 0.5 psu, levels that have negligible environmental implications at the basin-wide scale.

Occurrence and ecological risk assessment of antibiotic residues in urban wastewater discharged into the coastal environment of the Persian Gulf (the case of Bandar Abbas)

This is the first attempt to detect antibiotic residues released into the Persian Gulf marine environment. In particular, this study quantifies and assesses the ecological risks of amoxicillin (AMX) and azithromycin (AZM) residues in wastewater outfalls from Bandar Abbas, one of the major coastal cities in southern Iran. The wastewater effluent samples were collected from two main wastewater discharging stations, Gursuzan and Suru, between December 2020 and February 2021. High-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) analysis revealed the average concentration (± 95% CL) of AMX were 460 ± 230.0 μg L^-1 and 280 ± 100.6 μg L^-1 in Gursuzan and Suru stations. Mean AZM concentrations were also 264 ± 10.59 μg L^-1 and 295 ± 89.75 μg L^-1 in these stations, respectively. Pooled data indicated that there are 335.17 ± 105.11 and 288.17 ± 37.94 μg of AMX and AZM residues in the wastewater per liter. The values of potential ecological risk, hazard quotient (HQ), were extensively above 10 (AMX: 90,586.5 and AZM: 5541.7) which suggest that these substances have a high health risk for the ecosystem and public. Given that Bandar Abbas wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) outlets are discharged at about 500 to 700 L s^-1, the daily maximum potential AMX and AZM released were estimated to be 19.05 (± 0.283) × 10³ and 14.74 (± 0.113) × 10³ g day^-1, respectively (α = 0.05). Our findings show that there is a concerning volume of antibiotic residues released into the northern Persian Gulf, and hence urgent policies and actions are necessary to reduce this pollution.

Seasonal temperature variability observed at abyssal depths in the Arabian Sea

The abyssal ocean is generally considered an aseasonal environment decoupled from the variabilities observed at and just below the ocean's surface. Herein, we describe the first in-situ timeseries record of seasonal warming and cooling in the Arabian Sea at a depth of 4000 m. The seasonal cycle was observed over the nearly four-year-long record (from November 2018 to March 2022). The abyssal seasonal temperature cycle also exhibited noticeable interannual variability. We investigate whether or not surface processes influence the near-seabed temperature through deep meridional overturning circulation modulated by the Indian monsoon or by Rossby wave propagation. We also consider if bottom water circulation variability and discharge of the dense Persian Gulf and Red Sea Water may contribute to the observed seasonality.

Dynamic hydrographic and water-quality variations in the northwestern Arabian Gulf, a sinking zone of reverse estuarine circulation

Continuous measurements of hydrographic, hydrodynamic, and water quality showed marked diurnal, tidal, and seasonal variabilities in Kuwait Bay, a stressed coastal system in the northwestern Arabian/Persian Gulf. Advection of water masses and seasonality in vertical mixing regulated the Bay's hydrographic and water quality properties. Intensive stratification in summer had substantial implications on the Bay environment. Kuwait Bay constantly exports dense bottom water laden with dissolved inorganic nutrients and organic matter to the central basin of the Gulf. The export was largest in August under strong water column stratification. These in-situ findings agreed well with earlier studies that corroborated Kuwait Bay as an important area where the phenomenon of reverse estuarine circulation originates in the Gulf. Thus, Kuwait Bay is a significant source of nutrients and organic matter to the Gulf Deep Water that flows into the core of the oxygen minimum zone in the northwestern Indian Ocean.

Algal blooms historical outbreaks in the northern coastal waters of the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea (1980-2015)

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) have been serious environmental problems in the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea in recent years. There has been an increase in occurrence of HABs in coastal waters of Hormuzgan Province (to the north of the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea) in recent decade, due to eutrophication as a result of human activities. In this review, HAB phenomena in coastal waters of Hormuzgan Province are summarized, including, causative species, timing and the location of blooms during a 35-year time span from 1980 to 2015. This review illustrates that 436 algal blooms have been recorded in the north of the Persian Gulf, formed by 17 species of phytoplankton; 270 of harmful dinoflagellate (Margalefidinium polykrikoides) blooms have led to huge catastrophic impacts on the economy, environment, and society. In addition, most algal blooms (49%) have occurred in the coasts of Bandar Abbas. The data in this review suggest supporting the establishment of an algal bloom monitoring and control program in the coastal waters of the northern part of the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea (Hormuzgan Province).

Stable isotope ratios (δ13C and δ15N) and heavy metal levels in macroalgae, sediment, and benthos from the northern parts of Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman

In this investigation, δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N isotope ratios and heavy metal levels were assessed in macroalgae, sediment samples, and benthic species from northern parts of the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. The highest δ¹⁵N values in algal samples (11±0.42), indicative of anthropogenic organic N inputs, were detected in the Sadaf region, whereas the lowest values (3.17 ± 0.12), indicative of anthropogenic inorganic inputs, were detected in the Parvaz region. In addition to sediment quality guidelines (SQGs), contamination factors (CF), enrichment factors (EF), contamination degree (CD), pollution load index (PLI), geo accumulation index (Igeo), and potential ecological risk index (RI) were employed to assess the anthropogenic influence on sediment quality and to describe the sensitivity of the biota to toxic heavy metals. The obtained results demonstrate that the analyzed elements (Mn, Cr, Ni, Pb, Zn, Cu, Co, and V) had no ecological risk in the sampling area.

Correlation between concentrations of chlorophyll-a and satellite derived climatic factors in the Persian Gulf

Monthly mean satellite derived Chl-a, aerosols, wind, SST, PAR, and turbidity datasets were used to investigate the possible factors regulating phytoplankton variability in the Persian Gulf. The spatial correlation analysis revealed two distinct regions of SST and PAR, and a relatively uniform spatial correlation pattern of the other parameters. The cross correlation between aeolian dusts and Chl-a was significantly positive with 1-3 months offset. The pattern of spatial correlation between Chl-a and SST was positive in the shallow regions without time lag, and was negative with time offset of 3-5 months in deeper regions. The cross correlation between Chl-a and north-ward winds were positive with time lags of 1-3 months. Vertical mixing under the influence of north-ward winds in the deeper region, availability of light and nutrients in the shallow regions, and dust fertilizations over the whole area were suggested to be the major controlling factors regulating phytoplankton growth.

Modeling the combined impact of climate change and sea-level rise on general circulation and residence time in a semi-enclosed sea

This study provides an assessment of possible changes in the general circulation and residence time in the Persian Gulf under potential future sea-level rise and changes in the wind field due to the climate change. To determine the climate-change-induced impacts, Mike 3 Flow Model FM was used to simulate hydrodynamic and transport processes in the Persian Gulf in both historical (1998-2014) and future periods (2081-2100). Historical simulation was driven by ERA-Interim data. A statistical approach was employed to modify the values and directions of the future wind field obtained from the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) scenarios derived from CMCC-CM model of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The numerical model was calibrated and validated using measured data. Results indicated that in the historical period, residence time ranged between values of less than a month in the Strait of Hormuz and 10 years in the semi-enclosed area close to the south of Bahrain. The changes in wind field based on RCP 8.5 scenario were found to be the most disadvantageous for the Persian Gulf's capacity to flush dissolved pollutants out. Under this scenario, residence time would be 17% longer than that of historical one. This is mainly because the change in the wind field is large enough to overwhelm general circulation, showing a relationship between the residence time and the residual circulation. Impact of change in the wind field according to RCP 4.5 scenario on the modeled residence time is negligible. The numerical outputs also showed that the sea-level rise would slightly decrease the current velocity, resulting in a negligible increase in residence time. The findings of this study are intended to support establishing climate-adaptation management plans for coastal zones of the studied area in line with sustainable development goals.

Freshwater budget in the Persian (Arabian) Gulf and exchanges at the Strait of Hormuz

Excess evaporation within the Persian (also referred as the Arabian) Gulf induces an inverse-estuary circulation. Surface waters are imported, via the Strait of Hormuz, while saltier waters are exported in the deeper layers. Using output of a 1/12-Degree horizontal resolution ocean general circulation model, the spatial structure and time variability of the circulation and the exchanges of volume and salt through the Strait of Hormuz are investigated in detail. The model’s circulation pattern in the Gulf is found to be in good agreement with observations and other studies based on numerical models. The mean export of salty waters in the bottom layer is of 0.26±0.05Sv (Sverdrup = 1.0 × 10⁶m³s⁻¹). The net freshwater import, the equivalent of the salt export divided by a reference salinity, done by the baroclinic circulation across that vertical section is decomposed in an overturning and a horizontal components, with mean values of 7.2±2.1 × 10⁻³Sv and 5.0±1.7 × 10⁻³Sv respectively. An important, novel finding of this work is that the horizontal component is confined to the deeper layers, mainly in the winter. It is also described for the first time that both components are correlated at the same level with the basin averaged evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) over the Persian Gulf. The highest correlation (r² = 0.59) of the total freshwater transport across 26°N with E-P over the Gulf is found with a one-month time lag, with E-P leading. The time series of freshwater import does not show any significant trend in the period from 1980 to 2015. Power spectra analysis shows that most of the energy is concentrated in the seasonal cycle. Some intraseasonal variability, likely related to the Shamal wind phenomenon, and possible impacts of El-Nino are also detected. These results suggest that the overturning and the horizontal components of freshwater exchange across the Strait of Hormuz are both driven by dynamic and thermodynamic processes inside the Persian Gulf.

Numerical Prediction of Background Buildup of Salinity Due to Desalination Brine Discharges into the Northern Arabian Gulf

Brine discharges from desalination plants into low-flushing water bodies are challenging from the point of view of dilution, because of the possibility of background buildup effects that decrease the overall achievable dilution. To illustrate the background buildup effect, this paper uses the Arabian (Persian) Gulf, a shallow, reverse tidal estuary with only one outlet available for exchange flow. While desalination does not significantly affect the long-term average Gulf-wide salinity, due to the mitigating effect of the Indian Ocean Surface Water inflow, its resulting elevated salinities, as well as elevated concentrations of possible contaminants (such as heavy metals and organophosphates), can affect marine environments on a local and regional scale. To analyze the potential effect of background salinity buildup on dilutions achievable from discharge locations in the northern Gulf, a 3-dimensional hydrodynamic model (Delft3D) was used to simulate brine discharges from a single hypothetical source location along the Kuwaiti shoreline, about 900 km from the Strait of Hormuz. Using nested grids with a horizontal resolution, comparable to a local tidal excursion (250 m), far field dilutions of about 28 were computed for this discharge location. With this far field dilution, to achieve a total dilution of 20, the near field dilution (achievable using a submerged diffuser) would need to be increased to approximately 70. Conversely, the background build-up means that a near field dilution of 20 yields a total dilution of only about 12.

Surface Heat Fluxes over the Northern Arabian Gulf and the Northern Red Sea: Evaluation of ECMWF-ERA5 and NASA-MERRA2 Reanalyses

The air–sea heat fluxes in marginal seas and under extreme weather conditions constitute an essential source for energy transport and mixing dynamics. To reproduce these effects in numerical models, we need a better understanding of these fluxes. In response to this demand, we undertook a study to examine the surface heat fluxes in the Arabian Gulf (2013 to 2014) and Red Sea (2008 to 2010)—the two salty Indian Ocean marginal seas. We use high-quality buoy observations from offshore meteorological stations and data from two reanalysis products, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA2) from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and ERA5, the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalyses of global climate. Comparison of the reanalyses with the in situ-derived fluxes shows that both products underestimate the net heat fluxes in the Gulf and the Red Sea, with biases up to −45 W/m 2 in MERRA2. The reanalyses reproduce relatively well the seasonal variability in the two regions and the effects of wind events on air–sea fluxes. The results suggest that when forcing numerical models, ERA5 might provide a preferable dataset of surface heat fluxes for the Arabian Gulf while for the Red Sea the MERRA2 seems preferable.

Dispersal beyond geographic barriers: a contribution to the phylogeny and demographic history of Pristurus rupestris Blanford, 1874 (Squamata: Sphaerodactylidae) from southern Iran

Pristurus rupestris is a member of Semaphore geckos with a wide distribution range. Recently, 14 candidate species of P. rupestris rupestris have been identified in the Hajar Mountains (Arabia), yet the knowledge on the Iranian counterparts is limited. The present study elucidates the phylogenetic position of the Iranian P. rupestris and investigates the hypothesis on its historical colonization from Oman to Iran and the associated islands. Therefore, 20 Iranian specimens along with 115 individuals from Oman were examined using two mitochondrial genes including the Cytochrome b and the 12S ribosomal RNA. The molecular phylogenetic analyses revealed that the individuals collected from Iran are well nested within the candidate Species 3 of P. r. rupestris, demonstrating a single population with high gene flow. Additionally, the molecular analyses showed that the genetic diversity within the Iranian Blanford's Semaphore geckos is low and that the candidate Species 3 experienced a recent expansion approximately 17 thousand years ago (Kya). The historical demographic analyses (BSP) showed a mild increase in the effective population size between 15-20 Kya. These time estimations coincide with the Last Glacial Maximum, when the Persian Gulf was almost dry, reinforcing the hypothesis that the species might have colonized southern Iran from Oman through the Persian Gulf. In addition, we propose P. r. iranicus to be synonymized with P. r. rupestris.

Dynamic hydrographic variations in northwestern Arabian Gulf over the past three decades: Temporal shifts and trends derived from long-term monitoring data

Hydrographic variables were monitored in northwestern Arabian Gulf over the past three decades and the time-series data were statistically analyzed. The results show that while salinity has undergone several shifts, seawater temperature exhibited a steady increasing trend since the 1980s. The observed salinity shows strong correlation with Shatt Al-Arab River discharge indicating primary contribution of freshwater to salinity among other factors (evaporation and desalination effluent). Recent data show that salinity is at its highest level in the last 30years with less pronounced seasonal variability in response to severe decline in the freshwater runoff into the northwestern Arabian Gulf. The changes in hydrographic conditions may have significant implications on hydrodynamics, water quality, and ecosystems in the Gulf. Thus, cooperation among the concerned countries - both coastal and riparian nations - would be essential for prevention of further major changes in the Gulf.

Analysis of bloom conditions in fall 2013 in the Strait of Hormuz using satellite observations and model simulations

In this study an algal bloom event in fall 2013 in the Strait of Hormuz was thoroughly investigated using satellite remote sensing and hydrodynamic modeling. The motivation of this study is to deduce ambient conditions prior to and during the bloom outbreak and understand its trigger. Bloom tracking was achieved by sequential MODIS imagery and numerical simulations. Satellite observations showed that the bloom was initiated in late October 2013 and dissipated in early June 2014. Trajectories of bloom patches were simulated using a Lagrangian transport model. Model-based predictions of bloom patches' trajectories were in good agreement with satellite observations with a probability of detection (POD) reaching 0.85. Analysis of ancillary data, including sea surface temperature, ocean circulation, and wind, indicated that the bloom was likely caused by upwelling conditions in the Strait of Hormuz. Combined with numerical models, satellite observations provide an essential tool for investigating bloom conditions.

The influence of extreme winds on coastal oceanography and its implications for coral population connectivity in the southern Arabian Gulf

Using long-term oceanographic surveys and a 3-D hydrodynamic model we show that localized peak winds (known as shamals) cause fluctuation in water current speed and direction, and substantial oscillations in sea-bottom salinity and temperature in the southern Persian/Arabian Gulf. Results also demonstrate that short-term shamal winds have substantial impacts on oceanographic processes along the southern Persian/Arabian Gulf coastline, resulting in formation of large-scale (52 km diameter) eddies extending from the coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to areas near the off-shore islands of Iran. Such eddies likely play an important role in transporting larvae from well-developed reefs of the off-shore islands to the degraded reef systems of the southern Persian/Arabian Gulf, potentially maintaining genetic and ecological connectivity of these geographically distant populations and enabling enhanced recovery of degraded coral communities in the UAE.

Hydrodynamic evaluation of long term impacts of climate change and coastal effluents in the Arabian Gulf

A comprehensive basin wide hydrodynamic evaluation has been carried out to assess the long term impacts of climate change and coastal effluents on the salinity and seawater temperature of the Arabian Gulf (AG) using Delft3D-Flow model. The long term impacts of climate change scenarios A2 and B1 of the IPCC-AR4 on the AG hydrodynamics were evaluated. Using the current capacity and production rates of coastal desalination, power, and refinery plants, two projection scenarios until the year 2080 with 30 year intervals were developed namely the realistic and the optimistic discharge scenarios. Simulations of the individual climate change scenarios ascertained overall increase of the AG salinity and temperature and decrease of precipitation. The changes varied spatially with different scenarios as per the depth, proximity to exchange with ocean water, flushing, vertical mixing, and flow restriction. The individual tested scenarios of coastal projected discharges showed significant effects but within 10-20 km from the outfalls.

Long-term hydrodynamic modeling of the Arabian Gulf

A 3-D prognostic baroclinic hydrodynamic model of the Arabian Gulf (AG) was developed using Delft3D-FLOW. The model was forced with long-term time averaged climatological data over the computational domain and long-term salinity and temperature boundary conditions applied at its tidal open boundary. The model simulation results were thoroughly validated against measured tides from 5 stations and measured currents at 4 locations in the central and southern parts. Water salinity and temperature were validated in space and time using observations spanning over 73 years from 1923 to 1996 for the AG, the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman. The bottom flow of the AG basin at the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz was also validated against the available measurements. Seasonal evaporation and surface density spatial distribution maps were produced and compared with available records. The developed model setup successfully generated the AG seasonal stratification and hydrographic conditions.

Population genetics of the fiddler crab Uca sindensis (Alcock, 1900) (Crustacea: Brachyura: Ocypodidae) from the Arabian Sea

BACKGROUND

The fiddler crab Ucasindensis (Alcock, 1900) (Crustacea: Brachyura: Ocypodidae) is distributed in the northern coasts of the Arabian Sea (Pakistan, Iran, Iraq, and Kuwait). Its typical habitat is on high intertidal areas with higher salinity, which might restrict its distribution, especially within the Persian Gulf. The purpose of the present phylogeographicstudy is to understand whether the Strait of Hormuz acts as a barrier to the gene flow of this species.

RESULTS

The genetic analyses of the mitochondrial 16S rRNA, cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI), and control region (CR) of specimens from various localities showed that there was no genetic differentiation between the populations inside and outside of the Persian Gulf.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that the narrow Strait of Hormuz does not form a barrier for the larval dispersal in this species. Its restricted distribution in the northern Arabian Sea may instead be associated with its preference for higher salinity sediments present in the coasts of thisregion.

Evaluation of the long-term variability of seawater salinity and temperature in response to natural and anthropogenic stressors in the Arabian Gulf

Evaluating the long-term variability of the seawater salinity and temperature due to climate change is a limiting economical and operational factor in planning the design of new and expansion of existing desalination plants. This need is amplified in the Arabian Gulf due to the natural arid climate and anthropological stresses related to energy exploration and ongoing major developments. The lack of data in this region further adds additional dimension to the problem. The present work represents a systematic innovative approach to evaluate the anticipated long-term changes in the seawater salinity and temperature under the stresses of projected climate change and massive industrial effluents using statistical correlation and hydrodynamic simulation. The proposed approach employs the direct relation between the net freshwater losses (evaporation) entrenched with the investigated stressors and the mean sea salinity and sea temperature variation of an inverse estuary to formulate the statistical correlation and the hydrodynamic simulation conditions.

The Gulf: a young sea in decline

This review examines the substantial changes that have taken place in marine habitats and resources of the Gulf over the past decade. The habitats are especially interesting because of the naturally high levels of temperature and salinity stress they experience, which is important in a changing world climate. However, the extent of all natural habitats is changing and their condition deteriorating because of the rapid development of the region and, in some cases from severe, episodic warming episodes. Major impacts come from numerous industrial, infrastructure-based, and residential and tourism development activities, which together combine, synergistically in some cases, to cause the observed deterioration in most benthic habitats. Substantial sea bottom dredging for material and its deposition in shallow water to extend land or to form a basis for huge developments, directly removes large areas of shallow, productive habitat, though in some cases the most important effect is the accompanying sedimentation or changes to water flows and conditions. The large scale of the activities compared to the relatively shallow and small size of the water body is a particularly important issue. Important from the perspective of controlling damaging effects is the limited cross-border collaboration and even intra-country collaboration among government agencies and large projects. Along with the accumulative nature of impacts that occur, even where each project receives environmental assessment or attention, each is treated more or less alone, rarely in combination. However, their combination in such a small, biologically interacting sea exacerbates the overall deterioration. Very few similar areas exist which face such a high concentration of disturbance, and the prognosis for the Gulf continuing to provide abundant natural resources is poor.