A method for evaluating population and infrastructure exposed to natural hazards: tests and results for two recent Tonga tsunamis

BACKGROUND

Coastal communities are highly exposed to ocean- and -related hazards but often lack an accurate population and infrastructure database. On January 15, 2022 and for many days thereafter, the Kingdom of Tonga was cut off from the rest of the world by a destructive tsunami associated with the Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha'apai volcanic eruption. This situation was made worse by COVID-19-related lockdowns and no precise idea of the magnitude and pattern of destruction incurred, confirming Tonga's position as second out of 172 countries ranked by the World Risk Index 2018. The occurrence of such events in remote island communities highlights the need for (1) precisely knowing the distribution of buildings, and (2) evaluating what proportion of those would be vulnerable to a tsunami.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A GIS-based dasymetric mapping method, previously tested in New Caledonia for assessing and calibrating population distribution at high resolution, is improved and implemented in less than a day to jointly map population clusters and critical elevation contours based on runup scenarios, and is tested against destruction patterns independently recorded in Tonga after the two recent tsunamis of 2009 and 2022. Results show that ~ 62% of the population of Tonga lives in well-defined clusters between sea level and the 15 m elevation contour. The patterns of vulnerability thus obtained for each island of the archipelago allow exposure and potential for cumulative damage to be ranked as a function of tsunami magnitude and source area.

CONCLUSIONS

By relying on low-cost tools and incomplete datasets for rapid implementation in the context of natural disasters, this approach works for all types of natural hazards, is easily transferable to other insular settings, can assist in guiding emergency rescue targets, and can help to elaborate future land-use planning priorities for disaster risk reduction purposes.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40677-023-00235-8.

Evidence of Unknown Paleo-Tsunami Events along the Alas Strait, West Sumbawa, Indonesia

Indonesia is exposed to earthquakes, volcanic activities, and associated tsunamis. This is particularly the case for Lombok and Sumbawa Islands in West Nusa Tenggara, where evidence of tsunamis is frequently observed in its coastal sedimentary record. If the 1815 CE Tambora eruption on Sumbawa Island generated a tsunami with well-identified traces on the surrounding islands, little is known about the consequences of the 1257 CE tremendous eruption of Samalas on the neighboring islands, and especially about the possible tsunamis generated in reason of a paucity of research on coastal sedimentary records in this area. However, on Lombok Island, the eruption of the Samalas volcano produced significant volumes of pyroclastic flows that entered the sea in the North and East of the island. These phenomena must have produced a tsunami that left their traces, especially on Sumbawa Island, whose western coastline is only 14 km away from Lombok’s eastern shore. Therefore, the main goal of this study is to investigate, find evidence, and determine the age of marine-origin sediments along the shore of the Alas Strait, Indonesia. We collected and analyzed samples of coral and seashells from marine deposits identified along the west coast of Sumbawa, i.e., in Belang Island and abandoned fishponds in Kiantar Village, in order to identify the sources and the occurrence period of these deposits events. Based on the radiocarbon dating of coral and seashell samples, we concluded that none of the identified marine deposits along the western coast of Sumbawa could be related chronologically to the 1257 CE eruption of Samalas. However, possible tsunami deposits located in Belang Island and abandoned fishponds in Kiantar Village yielded 4th century CE, 9th century CE, and 17th century CE. We also conclude that past large earthquakes triggered these tsunamis since no known volcanic eruption occurred near the Alas Strait at that time that may have triggered a tsunami.

A Study of the Maximum Momentum Flux in the Solitary Wave Run-Up Zone over Back-Reef Slopes Based on a Boussinesq Model

This study utilized a shock-capturing Boussinesq model FUNWAVE-TVD to investigate the maximum momentum flux in the solitary wave run-up zone over back-reef slopes. Validation results of the present model were compared to the previous version of FUNWAVE using the eddy viscosity breaking model to demonstrate the advantages of the shock-capturing method in predicting the breaking solitary wave transformation and run-up over fringing reefs. A series of numerical experiments was designed comprehensively and performed then to obtain a new formulation for the envelope of the spatial distribution of the maximum momentum flux within the solitary wave run-up zone over back-reef beaches, which is different from the one used over uniformly-sloping beaches. Finally, the effects of the variation of reef parameters (i.e., the fore-reef slope angle, reef flat width, and water depth over the reef flat) on the maximum momentum flux at the initial shoreline were investigated to better understand the role of fringing reefs in the mitigation of tsunami hazard.

Coral Reefs and People in a High-CO2 World: Where Can Science Make a Difference to People?

REEFS AND PEOPLE AT RISK

Increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere put shallow, warm-water coral reef ecosystems, and the people who depend upon them at risk from two key global environmental stresses: 1) elevated sea surface temperature (that can cause coral bleaching and related mortality), and 2) ocean acidification. These global stressors: cannot be avoided by local management, compound local stressors, and hasten the loss of ecosystem services. Impacts to people will be most grave where a) human dependence on coral reef ecosystems is high, b) sea surface temperature reaches critical levels soonest, and c) ocean acidification levels are most severe. Where these elements align, swift action will be needed to protect people's lives and livelihoods, but such action must be informed by data and science.

AN INDICATOR APPROACH

Designing policies to offset potential harm to coral reef ecosystems and people requires a better understanding of where CO2-related global environmental stresses could cause the most severe impacts. Mapping indicators has been proposed as a way of combining natural and social science data to identify policy actions even when the needed science is relatively nascent. To identify where people are at risk and where more science is needed, we map indicators of biological, physical and social science factors to understand how human dependence on coral reef ecosystems will be affected by globally-driven threats to corals expected in a high-CO2 world. Western Mexico, Micronesia, Indonesia and parts of Australia have high human dependence and will likely face severe combined threats. As a region, Southeast Asia is particularly at risk. Many of the countries most dependent upon coral reef ecosystems are places for which we have the least robust data on ocean acidification. These areas require new data and interdisciplinary scientific research to help coral reef-dependent human communities better prepare for a high CO2 world.

Tsunami science before and beyond Boxing Day 2004

Tsunami science has evolved differently from research on other extreme natural hazards, primarily because of the unavailability until recently of instrumental recordings of tsunamis in the open ocean. Here, the progress towards developing tsunami inundation modelling tools for use in inundation forecasting is discussed historically from the perspective of hydrodynamics. The state-of-knowledge before the 26 December 2004 tsunami is described. Remaining aspects for future research are identified. One, validated inundation models need to be further developed through benchmark testing and instrumental tsunameter measurements and standards for operational codes need to be established. Two, a methodology is needed to better quantify short-duration impact forces on structures. Three, the mapping of vulnerable continental margins to identify unrecognized hazards must proceed expeditiously, along with palaeotsunami research to establish repeat intervals. Four, the development of better coupling between deforming seafloor motions and model initialization needs further refinement. Five, in an era of global citizenship, more comprehensive educational efforts on tsunami hazard mitigation are necessary worldwide.