Patterns and drivers of evapotranspiration in South American wetlands

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key process linking surface and atmospheric energy budgets, yet its drivers and patterns across wetlandscapes are poorly understood worldwide. Here we assess the ET dynamics in 12 wetland complexes across South America, revealing major differences under temperate, tropical, and equatorial climates. While net radiation is a dominant driver of ET seasonality in most environments, flooding also contributes strongly to ET in tropical and equatorial wetlands, especially in meeting the evaporative demand. Moreover, significant water losses through wetlands and ET differences between wetlands and uplands occur in temperate, more water-limited environments and in highly flooded areas such as the Pantanal, where slow river flood propagation drives the ET dynamics. Finally, floodplain forests produce the greatest ET in all environments except the Amazon River floodplains, where upland forests sustain high rates year round. Our findings highlight the unique hydrological functioning and ecosystem services provided by wetlands on a continental scale.

Sources of intraspecific variation in the isotopic niche of a semi-aquatic predator in a human-modified landscape

Intraspecific variation modulates patterns of resource use by species, potentially affecting the structure and stability of food webs. In human-modified landscapes, habitat disturbance modifies trophic interactions and intraspecific niche variation, impacting population persistence. Here, we investigated the relationship of sex, ontogeny, and habitat factors with the trophic niche of Caiman crocodilus in an agricultural landscape. We evaluated temporal variation in the trophic niche parameters using carbon and nitrogen stable isotope analysis from different body tissues. We found that caimans exploit the same carbon and nitrogen pools through time, with low isotopic variability between seasons, partly due to the slow isotope turnover rates of tissues in crocodilians. Conversely, the trophic niche of caimans varied across habitats, but with no evidence of a difference between natural and anthropogenic habitats. It apparently results from the influence of habitat suitability, connectivity, and caiman movements during the foraging. Our findings highlight the broader niches of juvenile caimans relative to adults, possibly in response of territorialism and opportunistic foraging strategy. Although using similar resources, females had a larger niche than males, probably associated with foraging strategies during nesting. Considering the sex and body size categories, caimans occupied distinct isotopic regions in some habitats, indicating apparent niche segregation. Ontogenetic trophic shifts in the isotopes (δ13C and δ15N) depended on sex, leading to resource partitioning that can potentially reduce intraspecific competition. Decision-makers and stakeholders should consider the trophic dynamics of sex and body size groups for the sustainable management and conservation of caiman populations, which implies in the maintenance of wetland habitats and landscape heterogeneity in the Formoso River floodplain.

WUE and CO2 Estimations by Eddy Covariance and Remote Sensing in Different Tropical Biomes

The analysis of gross primary production (GPP) is crucial to better understand CO2 exchanges between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere, while the quantification of water-use efficiency (WUE) allows for the estimation of the compensation between carbon gained and water lost by the ecosystem. Understanding these dynamics is essential to better comprehend the responses of environments to ongoing climatic changes. The objective of the present study was to analyze, through AMERIFLUX and LBA network measurements, the variability of GPP and WUE in four distinct tropical biomes in Brazil: Pantanal, Amazonia, Caatinga and Cerrado (savanna). Furthermore, data measured by eddy covariance systems were used to assess remotely sensed GPP products (MOD17). We found a distinct seasonality of meteorological variables and energy fluxes with different latent heat controls regarding available energy in each site. Remotely sensed GPP was satisfactorily related with observed data, despite weak correlations in interannual estimates and consistent overestimations and underestimations during certain months. WUE was strongly dependent on water availability, with values of 0.95 gC kg−1 H2O (5.79 gC kg−1 H2O) in the wetter (drier) sites. These values reveal new thresholds that had not been previously reported in the literature. Our findings have crucial implications for ecosystem management and the design of climate policies regarding the conservation of tropical biomes, since WUE is expected to change in the ongoing climate change scenario that indicates an increase in frequency and severity of dry periods.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of NDVI, Soil Moisture and ENSO in Tropical South America

We evaluated the coupled dynamics of vegetation dynamics (NDVI) and soil moisture (SMOS) at monthly resolution over different regions of tropical South America and the effects of the Eastern Pacific (EP) and the Central Pacific (CP) El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. We used linear Pearson cross-correlation, wavelet and cross wavelet analysis (CWA) and three nonlinear causality methods: ParrCorr, GPDC and PCMCIplus. Results showed that NDVI peaks when SMOS is transitioning from maximum to minimum monthly values, which confirms the role of SMOS in the hydrological dynamics of the Amazonian greening up during the dry season. Linear correlations showed significant positive values when SMOS leads NDVI by 1–3 months. Wavelet analysis evidenced strong 12- and 64-month frequency bands throughout the entire record length, in particular for SMOS, whereas the CWA analyses indicated that both variables exhibit a strong coherency at a wide range of frequency bands from 2 to 32 months. Linear and nonlinear causality measures also showed that ENSO effects are greater on SMOS. Lagged cross-correlations displayed that western (eastern) regions are more associated with the CP (EP), and that the effects of ENSO manifest as a travelling wave over time, from northwest (earlier) to southeast (later) over tropical South America and the Amazon River basin. The ParrCorr and PCMCIplus methods produced the most coherent results, and allowed us to conclude that: (1) the nonlinear temporal persistence (memory) of soil moisture is stronger than that of NDVI; (2) the existence of two-way nonlinear causalities between NDVI and SMOS; (3) diverse causal links between both variables and the ENSO indices: CP (7/12 with ParrCorr; 6/12 with PCMCIplus), and less with EP (5/12 with ParrCorr; 3/12 with PCMCIplus).

Evapotranspiration Seasonality over Tropical Ecosystems in Mato Grosso, Brazil

Brazilian tropical ecosystems in the state of Mato Grosso have experienced significant land use and cover changes during the past few decades due to deforestation and wildfire. These changes can directly affect the mass and energy exchange near the surface and, consequently, evapotranspiration (ET). Characterization of the seasonal patterns of ET can help in understanding how these tropical ecosystems function with a changing climate. The goal of this study was to characterize temporal (seasonal-to-decadal) and spatial patterns in ET over Mato Grosso using remotely sensed products. Ecosystems over areas with limited to no flux towers can be performed using remote sensing products such as NASA’s MOD16A2 ET (MOD16 ET). As the accuracy of this product in tropical ecosystems is unknown, a secondary objective of this study was to evaluate the ability of the MOD16 ET (ETMODIS) to appropriately represent the spatial and seasonal ET patterns in Mato Grosso, Brazil. Actual ET was measured (ETMeasured) using eight flux towers, three in the Amazon, three in the Cerrado, and two in the Pantanal of Mato Grosso. In general, the ETMODIS of all sites had no significant difference from ETMeasured during all analyzed periods, and ETMODIS had a significant moderate to strong correlation with the ETMeasured. The spatial variation of ET had some similarity to the climatology of Mato Grosso, with higher ET in the mid to southern parts of Mato Grosso (Cerrado and Pantanal) during the wet period compared to the dry period. The ET in the Amazon had three seasonal patterns, a higher and lower ET in the wet season compared to the dry season, and minimal to insignificant variation in ET during the wet and dry seasons. The wet season ET in Amazon decreased from the first and second decades, but the ET during the wet and dry season increased in Cerrado and Pantanal in the same period. This study highlights the importance of deepening the study of ET in the state of Mato Grosso due to the land cover and climate change.

Hydrologic Impact of Climate Change in the Jaguari River in the Cantareira Reservoir System

A recent drought in Southeast Brazil affected the Cantareira reservoirs system (CRS), which supplies water to São Paulo megacity, and raised concerns on the impacts that climate change may have on the water budget at the watershed scale. We propose to identify the particular and summed contributions of key climatic variables on the variability of the water budget in Jaguari basin, the main CRS tributary, using forcing–response relationships derived from climate projections and individual elasticities of variables to temperature. Besides, we investigated whether hydrological effects of the anomalous drought were comparable to patterns simulated in the future climate. A thoroughly calibrated hydrological model for evapotranspiration (ET) and discharge (Q) was used to address our questions. We found opposite impacts in the future mostly driven by rainfall changes: under increasing (decreasing) rainfall, the mean ET increased (decreased) up to +25% (−10%) and Q increased (decreased) by +90% (−50%). Higher carbon dioxide concentrations strongly depleted the stomatal conductance, and thus the mean ET, which in turn increased the mean Q in near proportions. Major critical impacts for water management are suggested by the results. Even with a small reduction of precipitation, the discharge patterns in the drought event were replicated at similar intensities.

Assessing Drought Response in the Southwestern Amazon Forest by Remote Sensing and In Situ Measurements

Long-term meteorological analyzes suggest an increase in air temperature and a decrease in rainfall over the Amazon biome. The effect of these climate changes on the forest remains unresolved, because field observations on functional traits are sparse in time and space, and the results from remote sensing analyses are divergent. Then, we analyzed the drought response in a ‘terra firme’ forest fragment in the southwestern Amazonia, during an extreme drought event influenced by ENSO episode (2015/2017), focusing on stem growth, litter production, functional traits and forest canopy dynamics. We use the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), corrected by Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) to generate the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and green chromatic coordinate (Gcc) vegetation indices. We monitor stem growth and measure the functional traits of trees in situ, such as the potential at which the plant loses 50% of hydraulic conductivity (P50), turgor loss point (πTLP), hydraulic safety margin (HSM) and isohydricity. Our results suggest that: (a) during the dry season, there is a smooth reduction in EVI values (browning) and an increase in the wet season (greening); (b) in the dry season, leaf flush occurs, when the water table still has a quota at the limit of the root zone; (c) the forest showed moderate resistance to drought, with water as the primary limiting factor, and the thickest trees were the most resistant; and (d) a decline in stem growth post-El-Niño 2015/2016 was observed, suggesting that the persistence of negative rainfall anomalies may be as critical to the forest as the drought episode itself.

Dry Season Transpiration and Soil Water Dynamics in the Central Amazon

With current observations and future projections of more intense and frequent droughts in the tropics, understanding the impact that extensive dry periods may have on tree and ecosystem-level transpiration and concurrent carbon uptake has become increasingly important. Here, we investigate paired soil and tree water extraction dynamics in an old-growth upland forest in central Amazonia during the 2018 dry season. Tree water use was assessed via radial patterns of sap flow in eight dominant canopy trees, each a different species with a range in diameter, height, and wood density. Paired multi-sensor soil moisture probes used to quantify volumetric water content dynamics and soil water extraction within the upper 100 cm were installed adjacent to six of those trees. To link depth-specific water extraction patterns to root distribution, fine root biomass was assessed through the soil profile to 235 cm. To scale tree water use to the plot level (stand transpiration), basal area was measured for all trees within a 5 m radius around each soil moisture probe. The sensitivity of tree transpiration to reduced precipitation varied by tree, with some increasing and some decreasing in water use during the dry period. Tree-level water use scaled with sapwood area, from 11 to 190 L per day. Stand level water use, based on multiple plots encompassing sap flow and adjacent trees, varied from ∼1.7 to 3.3 mm per day, increasing linearly with plot basal area. Soil water extraction was dependent on root biomass, which was dense at the surface (i.e., 45% in the upper 5 cm) and declined dramatically with depth. As the dry season progressed and the upper soil dried, soil water extraction shifted to deeper levels and model projections suggest that much of the water used during the month-long dry-down could be extracted from the upper 2-3 m. Results indicate variation in rates of soil water extraction across the research area and, temporally, through the soil profile. These results provide key information on whole-tree contributions to transpiration by canopy trees as water availability changes. In addition, information on simultaneous stand level dynamics of soil water extraction that can inform mechanistic models that project tropical forest response to drought.

Ecosystem Productivity and Evapotranspiration Are Tightly Coupled in Loblolly Pine (Pinus taeda L.) Plantations along the Coastal Plain of the Southeastern U.S

Forest water use efficiency (WUE), the ratio of gross primary productivity (GPP) to evapotranspiration (ET), is an important variable to understand the coupling between water and carbon cycles, and to assess resource use, ecosystem resilience, and commodity production. Here, we determined WUE for managed loblolly pine plantations over the course of a rotation on the coastal plain of North Carolina in the eastern U.S. We found that the forest annual GPP, ET, and WUE increased until age ten, which stabilized thereafter. WUE varied annually (2–44%), being higher at young plantation (YP, 3.12 ± 1.20 g C kg−1 H2O d−1) compared to a mature plantation (MP, 2.92 ± 0.45 g C kg−1 H2O d−1), with no distinct seasonal patterns. Stand age was strongly correlated with ET (R2 = 0.71) and GPP (R2 = 0.64). ET and GPP were tightly coupled (R2 = 0.86). Radiation and air temperature significantly affected GPP and ET (R2 = 0.71 − R2 = 0.82) at a monthly scale, but not WUE. Drought affected WUE (R2 = 0.35) more than ET (R2 = 0.25) or GPP (R2 = 0.07). A drought enhanced GPP in MP (19%) and YP (11%), but reduced ET 7% and 19% in MP and YP, respectively, resulting in a higher WUE (27–32%). Minor seasonal and interannual variation in forest WUE of MP (age > 10) suggested that forest functioning became stable as stands matured. We conclude that carbon and water cycles in loblolly pine plantations are tightly coupled, with different characteristics in different ages and hydrologic regimes. A stable WUE suggests that the pine ecosystem productivity can be readily predicted from ET and vice versa. The tradeoffs between water and carbon cycling should be recognized in forest management to achieve multiple ecosystem services (i.e., water supply and carbon sequestration).

Accurate Simulation of Both Sensitivity and Variability for Amazonian Photosynthesis: Is It Too Much to Ask?

Estimates of Amazon rainforest gross primary productivity (GPP) differ by a factor of 2 across a suite of three statistical and 18 process models. This wide spread contributes uncertainty to predictions of future climate. We compare the mean and variance of GPP from these models to that of GPP at six eddy covariance (EC) towers. Only one model's mean GPP across all sites falls within a 99% confidence interval for EC GPP, and only one model matches EC variance. The strength of model response to climate drivers is related to model ability to match the seasonal pattern of the EC GPP. Models with stronger seasonal swings in GPP have stronger responses to rain, light, and temperature than does EC GPP. The model to data comparison illustrates a trade-off inherent to deterministic models between accurate simulation of a mean (average) and accurate responsiveness to drivers. The trade-off exists because all deterministic models simplify processes and lack at least some consequential driver or interaction. If a model's sensitivities to included drivers and their interactions are accurate, then deterministically predicted outcomes have less variability than is realistic. If a GPP model has stronger responses to climate drivers than found in data, model predictions may match the observed variance and seasonal pattern but are likely to overpredict GPP response to climate change. High or realistic variability of model estimates relative to reference data indicate that the model is hypersensitive to one or more drivers.

Artificial Neural Network Model of Soil Heat Flux over Multiple Land Covers in South America

Soil heat flux (G) is an important component for the closure of the surface energy balance (SEB) and the estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) by remote sensing algorithms. Over the last decades, efforts have been focused on parameterizing empirical models for G prediction, based on biophysical parameters estimated by remote sensing. However, due to the existing models’ empirical nature and the restricted conditions in which they were developed, using these models in large-scale applications may lead to significant errors. Thus, the objective of this study was to assess the ability of the artificial neural network (ANN) to predict mid-morning G using extensive remote sensing and meteorological reanalysis data over a broad range of climates and land covers in South America. Surface temperature (Ts), albedo (α), and enhanced vegetation index (EVI), obtained from a moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS), and net radiation (Rn) from the global land data assimilation system 2.1 (GLDAS 2.1) product, were used as inputs. The ANN’s predictions were validated against measurements obtained by 23 flux towers over multiple land cover types in South America, and their performance was compared to that of existing and commonly used models. The Jackson et al. (1987) and Bastiaanssen (1995) G prediction models were calibrated using the flux tower data for quadratic errors minimization. The ANN outperformed existing models, with mean absolute error (MAE) reductions of 43% and 36%, respectively. Additionally, the inclusion of land cover information as an input in the ANN reduced MAE by 22%. This study indicates that the ANN’s structure is more suited for large-scale G prediction than existing models, which can potentially refine SEB fluxes and ET estimates in South America.

New generation geostationary satellite observations support seasonality in greenness of the Amazon evergreen forests

Assessing the seasonal patterns of the Amazon rainforests has been difficult because of the paucity of ground observations and persistent cloud cover over these forests obscuring optical remote sensing observations. Here, we use data from a new generation of geostationary satellites that carry the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) to study the Amazon canopy. ABI is similar to the widely used polar orbiting sensor, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), but provides observations every 10-15 min. Our analysis of NDVI data collected over the Amazon during 2018-19 shows that ABI provides 21-35 times more cloud-free observations in a month than MODIS. The analyses show statistically significant changes in seasonality over 85% of Amazon forest pixels, an area about three times greater than previously reported using MODIS data. Though additional work is needed in converting the observed changes in seasonality into meaningful changes in canopy dynamics, our results highlight the potential of the new generation geostationary satellites to help us better understand tropical ecosystems, which has been a challenge with only polar orbiting satellites.

Amazon rainforest photosynthesis increases in response to atmospheric dryness

Earth system models predict that increases in atmospheric and soil dryness will reduce photosynthesis in the Amazon rainforest, with large implications for the global carbon cycle. Using in situ observations, solar-induced fluorescence, and nonlinear machine learning techniques, we show that, in reality, this is not necessarily the case: In many of the wettest parts of this region, photosynthesis and biomass tend to increase with increased atmospheric dryness, despite the associated reductions in canopy conductance to CO₂ These results can be largely explained by changes in canopy properties, specifically, new leaves flushed during the dry season have higher photosynthetic capacity than the leaves they replace, compensating for the negative stomatal response to increased dryness. As atmospheric dryness will increase with climate change, our study highlights the importance of reframing how we represent the response of ecosystem photosynthesis to atmospheric dryness in very wet regions, to accurately quantify the land carbon sink.

Changes in South American hydroclimate under projected Amazonian deforestation

Continued deforestation in the Amazon forest can alter the subsurface/surface and atmospheric branches of the hydrologic cycle. The sign and magnitude of these changes depend on the complex interactions between the water, energy, and momentum budgets. To understand these changes, we use the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model with improved representation of groundwater dynamics and the added feature of Amazonian moisture tracers. The control simulation uses moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) based observations of land use, and the deforestation simulations use a "business-as-usual" scenario projected for 2040-2050. Our results show that deforestation leads to changes that are seasonally very different. During the dry season, deforestation results in increased albedo and less available net radiation. This change, together with reduced leaf area, results in decreased evapotranspiration (ET), less atmospheric moisture of Amazonian origin, and an increase in temperature. However, we find no changes in precipitation over the basin. Conversely, during the wet season, surface winds increase significantly due to decreased surface roughness. Vapor transport increases throughout the deforested region and leads to an increase in easterly moisture export, and significant decrease in precipitation within the deforested regions of Eastern Amazon. Contrary to expectations, the moisture tracers in WRF show no evidence that precipitation decreases are due to recycling or changes in stability.

Assessment of an Automated Calibration of the SEBAL Algorithm to Estimate Dry-Season Surface-Energy Partitioning in a Forest–Savanna Transition in Brazil

Evapotranspiration ( E T ) provides a strong connection between surface energy and hydrological cycles. Advancements in remote sensing techniques have increased our understanding of energy and terrestrial water balances as well as the interaction between surface and atmosphere over large areas. In this study, we computed surface energy fluxes using the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) algorithm and a simplified adaptation of the CIMEC (Calibration using Inverse Modeling at Extreme Conditions) process for automated endmember selection. Our main purpose was to assess and compare the accuracy of the automated calibration of the SEBAL algorithm using two different sources of meteorological input data (ground measurements from an eddy covariance flux tower and reanalysis data from Modern-Era Reanalysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2)) to estimate the dry season partitioning of surface energy and water fluxes in a transitional area between tropical rainforest and savanna. The area is located in Brazil and is subject to deforestation and cropland expansion. The SEBAL estimates were validated using eddy covariance measurements (2004 to 2006) from the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in the Amazon (LBA) at the Bananal Javaés (JAV) site. Results indicated a high accuracy for daily ET, using both ground measurements and MERRA-2 reanalysis, suggesting a low sensitivity to meteorological inputs. For daily ET estimates, we found a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.35 mm day−1 for both observed and reanalysis meteorology using accurate quantiles for endmembers selection, yielding an error lower than 9% (RMSE compared to the average daily ET). Overall, the ET rates in forest areas were 4.2 mm day−1, while in grassland/pasture and agricultural areas we found average rates between 2.0 and 3.2 mm day−1, with significant changes in energy partitioning according to land cover. Thus, results are promising for the use of reanalysis data to estimate regional scale patterns of sensible heat (H) and latent heat (LE) fluxes, especially in areas subject to deforestation.

Surface-Atmosphere Coupling Scale, the Fate of Water, and Ecophysiological Function in a Brazilian Forest

Tropical South America plays a central role in global climate. Bowen ratio teleconnects to circulation and precipitation processes far afield, and the global CO2 growth rate is strongly influenced by carbon cycle processes in South America. However, quantification of basin-wide seasonality of flux partitioning between latent and sensible heat, the response to anomalies around climatic norms, and understanding of the processes and mechanisms that control the carbon cycle remains elusive. Here, we investigate simulated surface-atmosphere interaction at a single site in Brazil, using models with different representations of precipitation and cloud processes, as well as differences in scale of coupling between the surface and atmosphere. We find that the model with parameterized clouds/precipitation has a tendency toward unrealistic perpetual light precipitation, while models with explicit treatment of clouds produce more intense and less frequent rain. Models that couple the surface to the atmosphere on the scale of kilometers, as opposed to tens or hundreds of kilometers, produce even more realistic distributions of rainfall. Rainfall intensity has direct consequences for the "fate of water," or the pathway that a hydrometeor follows once it interacts with the surface. We find that the model with explicit treatment of cloud processes, coupled to the surface at small scales, is the most realistic when compared to observations. These results have implications for simulations of global climate, as the use of models with explicit (as opposed to parameterized) cloud representations becomes more widespread.

Phenology and Seasonal Ecosystem Productivity in an Amazonian Floodplain Forest

Several studies have explored the linkages between phenology and ecosystem productivity across the Amazon basin. However, few studies have focused on flooded forests, which correspond to c.a. 14% of the basin. In this study, we assessed the seasonality of ecosystem productivity (gross primary productivity, GPP) from eddy covariance measurements, environmental drivers and phenological patterns obtained from the field (leaf litter mass) and satellite measurements (enhanced vegetation index (EVI) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer/multi-angle implementation correction (MODIS/MAIAC)) in an Amazonian floodplain forest. We found that ecosystem productivity is limited by soil moisture in two different ways. During the flooded period, the excess of water limits GPP (Spearman’s correlation; rho = −0.22), while during non-flooded months, GPP is positively associated with soil moisture (rho = 0.34). However, GPP is maximized when cumulative water deficit (CWD) increases (rho = 0.81), indicating that GPP is dependent on the amount of water available. EVI was positively associated with leaf litter mass (Pearson’s correlation; r = 0.55) and with GPP (r = 0.50), suggesting a coupling between new leaf production and the phenology of photosynthetic capacity, decreasing both at the peak of the flooded period and at the end of the dry season. EVI was able to describe the inter-annual variations on forest responses to environmental drivers, which have changed during an observed El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) year (2015/2016).

Interannual and Seasonal Variations in Ecosystem Transpiration and Water Use Efficiency in a Tropical Rainforest

Warmer and drier climates over Amazonia have been predicted for the next century with expected changes in regional water and carbon cycles. We examined the impact of interannual and seasonal variations in climate conditions on ecosystem-level evapotranspiration (ET) and water use efficiency (WUE) to determine key climatic drivers and anticipate the response of these ecosystems to climate change. We used daily climate and eddyflux data recorded at the Guyaflux site in French Guiana from 2004 to 2014. ET and WUE exhibited weak interannual variability. The main climatic driver of ET and WUE was global radiation (Rg), but relative extractable water (REW) and soil temperature (Ts) did also contribute. At the seasonal scale, ET and WUE showed a modal pattern driven by Rg, with maximum values for ET in July and August and for WUE at the beginning of the year. By removing radiation effects during water depleted periods, we showed that soil water stress strongly reduced ET. In contrast, drought conditions enhanced radiation-normalized WUE in almost all the years, suggesting that the lack of soil water had a more severe effect on ecosystem evapotranspiration than on photosynthesis. Our results are of major concern for tropical ecosystem modeling because they suggest that under future climate conditions, tropical forest ecosystems will be able to simultaneously adjust CO2 and H2O fluxes. Yet, for tropical forests under future conditions, the direction of change in WUE at the ecosystem scale is hard to predict, since the impact of radiation on WUE is counterbalanced by adjustments to soil water limitations. Developing mechanistic models that fully integrate the processes associated with CO2 and H2O flux control should help researchers understand and simulate future functional adjustments in these ecosystems.

Evapotranspiration of the Brazilian Pampa Biome: Seasonality and Influential Factors

Experimentally characterizing evapotranspiration (ET) in different biomes around the world is an issue of interest for different areas of science. ET in natural areas of the Brazilian Pampa biome has still not been assessed. In this study, the actual ET (ETact) obtained from eddy covariance measurements over two sites of the Pampa biome was analyzed. The objective was to evaluate the energy partition and seasonal variability of the actual ET of the Pampa biome. Results showed that the latent heat flux was the dominant component in available energy in both the autumn–winter (AW) and spring–summer (SS) periods. Evapotranspiration of the Pampa biome showed strong seasonality, with highest ET rates in the SS period. During the study period, approximately 65% of the net radiation was used for the evapotranspiration process in the Pampa biome. The annual mean ET rate was 2.45 mm d−1. ET did not show to vary significantly between sites, with daily values very similar in both sites. The water availability in the Pampa biome was not a limiting factor for ET, which resulted in a small difference between the reference ET and the actual ET. These results are helpful in achieving a better understanding of the temporal pattern of ET in relation to the landscape of the Pampa biome and its meteorological, soil, and vegetation characteristics.

Ecosystem heterogeneity and diversity mitigate Amazon forest resilience to frequent extreme droughts

The impact of increases in drought frequency on the Amazon forest's composition, structure and functioning remain uncertain. We used a process- and individual-based ecosystem model (ED2) to quantify the forest's vulnerability to increased drought recurrence. We generated meteorologically realistic, drier-than-observed rainfall scenarios for two Amazon forest sites, Paracou (wetter) and Tapajós (drier), to evaluate the impacts of more frequent droughts on forest biomass, structure and composition. The wet site was insensitive to the tested scenarios, whereas at the dry site biomass declined when average rainfall reduction exceeded 15%, due to high mortality of large-sized evergreen trees. Biomass losses persisted when year-long drought recurrence was shorter than 2-7 yr, depending upon soil texture and leaf phenology. From the site-level scenario results, we developed regionally applicable metrics to quantify the Amazon forest's climatological proximity to rainfall regimes likely to cause biomass loss > 20% in 50 yr according to ED2 predictions. Nearly 25% (1.8 million km² ) of the Amazon forests could experience frequent droughts and biomass loss if mean annual rainfall or interannual variability changed by 2σ. At least 10% of the high-emission climate projections (CMIP5/RCP8.5 models) predict critically dry regimes over 25% of the Amazon forest area by 2100.

Improved Albedo Estimates Implemented in the METRIC Model for Modeling Energy Balance Fluxes and Evapotranspiration over Agricultural and Natural Areas in the Brazilian Cerrado

In this study we assessed METRIC (Mapping Evapotranspiration at high Resolution with Internalized Calibration) model performance to estimate energy balance fluxes and evapotranspiration (ET) in two heterogeneous landscapes in the Brazilian Cerrado, including fluxes and ET in both agricultural and natural vegetation. The estimates were evaluated by comparing them to flux tower data collected over sugarcane (USR site), woody savanna (PDG site) and stricto-sensu savanna (RECOR site) areas. The selection of the study years (2005–2007 for USR/PDG sites and 2011–2015 for RECOR site) was based on the availability of meteorological data (to be used as inputs in METRIC) and of flux tower data for energy balance fluxes and ET comparisons. The broadband albedo submodel was adjusted in order to improve Net Radiation estimates. For this adjustment, we applied at-surface solar radiation simulations obtained from the SMARTS2 model under different conditions of land elevation, precipitable water content and solar angles. We also tested the equivalence between the measured crop coefficient (Kc_ec) and the reference evapotranspiration fraction (ETrF or F), seeking to extrapolate from instantaneous to daily values of actual evapotranspiration (ETa). Surface albedo was underestimated by 10% at the USR site (showing a better performance for full crop coverage), by 15% at the PDG site (following the woody savanna dynamics pattern through dry and wet seasons) and was overestimated by 21% at the RECOR site. METRIC was effective in simulating the spatial and temporal variability of energy balance fluxes and ET over agricultural and natural vegetation in the Brazilian Cerrado, with errors within those reported in the literature. Net radiation (Rn) presented consistent results (coefficient of determination (R2) > 0.94) but it was overestimated by 8% and 9% in sugarcane and woody savanna, respectively. METRIC-derived ET estimates showed an agreement with ground data at USR and PDG sites (R2 > 0.88, root mean square error (RMSE) up to 0.87 mm day−1), but at the RECOR site, ET was overestimated by 14% (R2 = 0.96, mean absolute error (MAE) = 0.62 mm.day−1 and RMSE = 0.75 mm day−1). Surface energy balance fluxes and ET were marked by seasonality, with direct dependence on available energy, rainfall distribution, soil moisture and other parameters like albedo and NDVI.

Water, Energy, and Carbon with Artificial Neural Networks (WECANN): A statistically-based estimate of global surface turbulent fluxes and gross primary productivity using solar-induced fluorescence

A new global estimate of surface turbulent fluxes, latent heat flux (LE) and sensible heat flux (H), and gross primary production (GPP) is developed using a machine learning approach informed by novel remotely sensed Solar-Induced Fluorescence (SIF) and other radiative and meteorological variables. This is the first study to jointly retrieve LE, H and GPP using SIF observations. The approach uses an artificial neural network (ANN) with a target dataset generated from three independent data sources, weighted based on triple collocation (TC) algorithm. The new retrieval, named Water, Energy, and Carbon with Artificial Neural Networks (WECANN), provides estimates of LE, H and GPP from 2007 to 2015 at 1° × 1° spatial resolution and on monthly time resolution. The quality of ANN training is assessed using the target data, and the WECANN retrievals are evaluated using eddy covariance tower estimates from FLUXNET network across various climates and conditions. When compared to eddy covariance estimates, WECANN typically outperforms other products, particularly for sensible and latent heat fluxes. Analysing WECANN retrievals across three extreme drought and heatwave events demonstrates the capability of the retrievals in capturing the extent of these events. Uncertainty estimates of the retrievals are analysed and the inter-annual variability in average global and regional fluxes show the impact of distinct climatic events - such as the 2015 El Niño - on surface turbulent fluxes and GPP.

Effects of conversion of native cerrado vegetation to pasture on soil hydro-physical properties, evapotranspiration and streamflow on the Amazonian agricultural frontier

Understanding the impacts of land-use change on landscape-hydrological dynamics is one of the main challenges in the Northern Brazilian Cerrado biome, where the Amazon agricultural frontier is located. Motivated by the gap in literature assessing these impacts, we characterized the soil hydro-physical properties and quantified surface water fluxes from catchments under contrasting land-use in this region. We used data from field measurements in two headwater micro-catchments with similar physical characteristics and different land use, i.e. cerrado sensu stricto vegetation and pasture for extensive cattle ranching. We determined hydraulic and physical properties of the soils, applied ground-based remote sensing techniques to estimate evapotranspiration, and monitored streamflow from October 2012 to September 2014. Our results show significant differences in soil hydro-physical properties between the catchments, with greater bulk density and smaller total porosity in the pasture catchment. We found that evapotranspiration is smaller in the pasture (639 ± 31% mm yr-1) than in the cerrado catchment (1,004 ± 24% mm yr-1), and that streamflow from the pasture catchment is greater with runoff coefficients of 0.40 for the pasture and 0.27 for the cerrado catchment. Overall, our results confirm that conversion of cerrado vegetation to pasture causes soil hydro-physical properties deterioration, reduction in evapotranspiration reduction, and increased streamflow.

Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks

Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation–atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complex-network approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. Our results suggest that the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall. Under dry-season Amazonian rainfall reductions, comparable to Last Glacial Maximum conditions, additional forest loss due to self-amplified effects occurs in 10–13% of the Amazon basin. Although our findings do not indicate that the projected rainfall changes for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to complete Amazon dieback, they suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest.

Relatively little is understood about seasonal effect of climate change on the Amazon rainforest. Here, the authors show that Amazon forest loss in response to dry-season intensification during the last glacial period was likely self-amplified by regional vegetation-rainfall feedbacks.

Do dynamic global vegetation models capture the seasonality of carbon fluxes in the Amazon basin? A data-model intercomparison

To predict forest response to long-term climate change with high confidence requires that dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) be successfully tested against ecosystem response to short-term variations in environmental drivers, including regular seasonal patterns. Here, we used an integrated dataset from four forests in the Brasil flux network, spanning a range of dry-season intensities and lengths, to determine how well four state-of-the-art models (IBIS, ED2, JULES, and CLM3.5) simulated the seasonality of carbon exchanges in Amazonian tropical forests. We found that most DGVMs poorly represented the annual cycle of gross primary productivity (GPP), of photosynthetic capacity (Pc), and of other fluxes and pools. Models simulated consistent dry-season declines in GPP in the equatorial Amazon (Manaus K34, Santarem K67, and Caxiuanã CAX); a contrast to observed GPP increases. Model simulated dry-season GPP reductions were driven by an external environmental factor, 'soil water stress' and consequently by a constant or decreasing photosynthetic infrastructure (Pc), while observed dry-season GPP resulted from a combination of internal biological (leaf-flush and abscission and increased Pc) and environmental (incoming radiation) causes. Moreover, we found models generally overestimated observed seasonal net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and respiration (R_e ) at equatorial locations. In contrast, a southern Amazon forest (Jarú RJA) exhibited dry-season declines in GPP and R_e consistent with most DGVMs simulations. While water limitation was represented in models and the primary driver of seasonal photosynthesis in southern Amazonia, changes in internal biophysical processes, light-harvesting adaptations (e.g., variations in leaf area index (LAI) and increasing leaf-level assimilation rate related to leaf demography), and allocation lags between leaf and wood, dominated equatorial Amazon carbon flux dynamics and were deficient or absent from current model formulations. Correctly simulating flux seasonality at tropical forests requires a greater understanding and the incorporation of internal biophysical mechanisms in future model developments.

Water, Energy, and Carbon with Artificial Neural Networks (WECANN): A statistically-based estimate of global surface turbulent fluxes and gross primary productivity using solar-induced fluorescence

A new global estimate of surface turbulent fluxes, latent heat flux (LE) and sensible heat flux (H), and gross primary production (GPP) is developed using a machine learning approach informed by novel remotely sensed Solar-Induced Fluorescence (SIF) and other radiative and meteorological variables. This is the first study to jointly retrieve LE, H and GPP using SIF observations. The approach uses an artificial neural network (ANN) with a target dataset generated from three independent data sources, weighted based on triple collocation (TC) algorithm. The new retrieval, named Water, Energy, and Carbon with Artificial Neural Networks (WECANN), provides estimates of LE, H and GPP from 2007 to 2015 at 1° × 1° spatial resolution and on monthly time resolution. The quality of ANN training is assessed using the target data, and the WECANN retrievals are evaluated using eddy covariance tower estimates from FLUXNET network across various climates and conditions. When compared to eddy covariance estimates, WECANN typically outperforms other products, particularly for sensible and latent heat fluxes. Analysing WECANN retrievals across three extreme drought and heatwave events demonstrates the capability of the retrievals in capturing the extent of these events. Uncertainty estimates of the retrievals are analysed and the inter-annual variability in average global and regional fluxes show the impact of distinct climatic events - such as the 2015 El Niño - on surface turbulent fluxes and GPP.

Estimating of gross primary production in an Amazon-Cerrado transitional forest using MODIS and Landsat imagery

The acceleration of the anthropogenic activity has increased the atmospheric carbon concentration, which causes changes in regional climate. The Gross Primary Production (GPP) is an important variable in the global carbon cycle studies, since it defines the atmospheric carbon extraction rate from terrestrial ecosystems. The objective of this study was to estimate the GPP of the Amazon-Cerrado Transitional Forest by the Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM) using local meteorological data and remote sensing data from MODIS and Landsat 5 TM reflectance from 2005 to 2008. The GPP was estimated using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) calculated by MODIS and Landsat 5 TM images. The GPP estimates were compared with measurements in a flux tower by eddy covariance. The GPP measured in the tower was consistent with higher values during the wet season and there was a trend to increase from 2005 to 2008. The GPP estimated by VPM showed the same increasing trend observed in measured GPP and had high correlation and Willmott's coefficient and low error metrics in comparison to measured GPP. These results indicated high potential of the Landsat 5 TM images to estimate the GPP of Amazon-Cerrado Transitional Forest by VPM.

Urgent need for warming experiments in tropical forests

Although tropical forests account for only a fraction of the planet's terrestrial surface, they exchange more carbon dioxide with the atmosphere than any other biome on Earth, and thus play a disproportionate role in the global climate. In the next 20 years, the tropics will experience unprecedented warming, yet there is exceedingly high uncertainty about their potential responses to this imminent climatic change. Here, we prioritize research approaches given both funding and logistical constraints in order to resolve major uncertainties about how tropical forests function and also to improve predictive capacity of earth system models. We investigate overall model uncertainty of tropical latitudes and explore the scientific benefits and inevitable trade-offs inherent in large-scale manipulative field experiments. With a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 analysis, we found that model variability in projected net ecosystem production was nearly 3 times greater in the tropics than for any other latitude. Through a review of the most current literature, we concluded that manipulative warming experiments are vital to accurately predict future tropical forest carbon balance, and we further recommend the establishment of a network of comparable studies spanning gradients of precipitation, edaphic qualities, plant types, and/or land use change. We provide arguments for long-term, single-factor warming experiments that incorporate warming of the most biogeochemically active ecosystem components (i.e. leaves, roots, soil microbes). Hypothesis testing of underlying mechanisms should be a priority, along with improving model parameterization and constraints. No single tropical forest is representative of all tropical forests; therefore logistical feasibility should be the most important consideration for locating large-scale manipulative experiments. Above all, we advocate for multi-faceted research programs, and we offer arguments for what we consider the most powerful and urgent way forward in order to improve our understanding of tropical forest responses to climate change.

Variations in evapotranspiration and climate for an Amazonian semi-deciduous forest over seasonal, annual, and El Niño cycles

Tropical forests exchange large amounts of water and energy with the atmosphere and are important in controlling regional and global climate; however, climate and evaportranspiration (E) vary significantly across multiple time scales. To better understand temporal patterns in E and climate, we measured the energy balance and meteorology of a semi-deciduous forest in the rainforest-savanna ecotone of northern Mato Grosso, Brazil, over a 7-year period and analyzed regional climate patterns over a 16-year period. Spectral analysis revealed that E and local climate exhibited consistent cycles over annual, seasonal, and weekly time scales. Annual and seasonal cycles were also apparent in the regional monthly rainfall and humidity time series, and a cycle on the order of 3-5.5 years was also apparent in the regional air temperature time series, which is coincident with the average return interval of El Niño. Annual rates of E were significantly affected by the 2002 El Niño. Prior to this event, annual E was on average 1,011 mm/year and accounted for 52% of the annual rainfall, while after, annual E was 931 mm/year and accounted for 42% of the annual rainfall. Our data also suggest that E declined significantly over the 7-year study period while air temperature significantly increased, which was coincident with a long-term, regional warming and drying trend. These results suggest that drought and warming induced by El Niño and/or climate change cause declines in E for semi-deciduous forests of the southeast Amazon Basin.

Climate-driven uncertainties in modeling terrestrial energy and water fluxes: a site-level to global-scale analysis

We used a land surface model constrained using data from flux tower sites, to analyze the biases in ecosystem energy and water fluxes arising due to the use of meteorological reanalysis datasets. Following site-level model calibration encompassing major vegetation types from the tropics to the northern high-latitudes, we repeated the site and global simulations using two reanalysis datasets: the NCEP/NCAR and the CRUNCEP. In comparison with the model simulations using observed meteorology from sites, the reanalysis-driven simulations produced several systematic biases in net radiation (Rn ), latent heat (LE), and sensible heat (H) fluxes. These include: (i) persistently positive tropical/subtropical biases in Rn using the NCEP/NCAR, and gradually transitioning to negative Rn biases in the higher latitudes; (ii) large positive H biases in the tropics/subtropics using the NCEP/NCAR; (iii) negative LE biases using the NCEP/NCAR above 40°N; (iv) high tropical LE using the CRUNCEP in comparison with observationally derived global estimates; and (v) flux-partitioning biases from canopy and ground components. Across vegetation types, we investigated the role of the meteorological drivers (shortwave and longwave radiation, atmospheric humidity, temperature, precipitation) and their seasonal biases in controlling these reanalysis-driven uncertainties. At the global scale, our site-level analysis explains several model-data differences in the LE and H fluxes when compared with observationally derived global estimates of these fluxes. Using our results, we discuss the implications of site-level model calibration on subsequent regional/global applications to study energy and hydrological processes. The flux-partitioning biases presented in this study have potential implications on the couplings among terrestrial carbon, energy, and water fluxes, and for the calibration of land-atmosphere parameterizations that are dependent on LE/H partitioning.

Variability of carbon and water fluxes following climate extremes over a tropical forest in southwestern Amazonia

The carbon and water cycles for a southwestern Amazonian forest site were investigated using the longest time series of fluxes of CO2 and water vapor ever reported for this site. The period from 2004 to 2010 included two severe droughts (2005 and 2010) and a flooding year (2009). The effects of such climate extremes were detected in annual sums of fluxes as well as in other components of the carbon and water cycles, such as gross primary production and water use efficiency. Gap-filling and flux-partitioning were applied in order to fill gaps due to missing data, and errors analysis made it possible to infer the uncertainty on the carbon balance. Overall, the site was found to have a net carbon uptake of ≈5 t C ha(-1) year(-1), but the effects of the drought of 2005 were still noticed in 2006, when the climate disturbance caused the site to become a net source of carbon to the atmosphere. Different regions of the Amazon forest might respond differently to climate extremes due to differences in dry season length, annual precipitation, species compositions, albedo and soil type. Longer time series of fluxes measured over several locations are required to better characterize the effects of climate anomalies on the carbon and water balances for the whole Amazon region. Such valuable datasets can also be used to calibrate biogeochemical models and infer on future scenarios of the Amazon forest carbon balance under the influence of climate change.

The Amazon basin in transition

Agricultural expansion and climate variability have become important agents of disturbance in the Amazon basin. Recent studies have demonstrated considerable resilience of Amazonian forests to moderate annual drought, but they also show that interactions between deforestation, fire and drought potentially lead to losses of carbon storage and changes in regional precipitation patterns and river discharge. Although the basin-wide impacts of land use and drought may not yet surpass the magnitude of natural variability of hydrologic and biogeochemical cycles, there are some signs of a transition to a disturbance-dominated regime. These signs include changing energy and water cycles in the southern and eastern portions of the Amazon basin.

Performance evaluation of the SITE® model to estimate energy flux in a tropical semi-deciduous forest of the southern Amazon Basin

The SITE® model was originally developed to study the response of tropical ecosystems to varying environmental conditions. The present study evaluated the applicability of the SITE model to simulation of energy fluxes in a tropical semi-deciduous forest of the southern Amazon Basin. The model was simulated with data representing the wet and dry season, and was calibrated according to each season. The output data of the calibrated model [net radiation (Rn), latent heat flux (LE) and sensible heat flux (H)] were compared with data observed in the field for validation. Considering changes in parameter calibration for a time step simulation of 30 min, the magnitude of variation in temporal flux was satisfactory when compared to observation field data. There was a tendency to underestimate and overestimate LE and H, respectively. Of all the calibration parameters, the soil moisture parameter presented the highest variation over the seasons, thus influencing SITE model performance.