Interannual and seasonal variability and future forecasting of pCO2(water) using the ARIMA model and CO2 fluxes in a tropical estuary

The seasonal and interannual variation in the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in water [pCO2(water)] and air-water CO2 exchange in the Mahanadi estuary situated on the east coast of India was studied between March 2013 and March 2021. The principal aim of the study was to analyze the spatiotemporal variability and future trend of pCO2 and air-water CO2 fluxes along with the related carbonate chemistry parameters like water temperature, pH, salinity, nutrients, and total alkalinity, over 9 years. The seasonal CO2 flux over nine years was also calculated using five worldwide accepted equations. The seasonal map of pCO2(water) followed a general trend of being high in monsoon (2628 ± 3484 μatm) associated with high river inflow and low during pre-monsoon (445.6 ± 270.0 μatm). High pCO2 in water compared to the atmosphere (average 407.6-409.4 μatm) was observed in the estuary throughout the sampling period. The CO2 efflux computed using different gas transfer velocity formulas was also consistent with pCO2 water acquiring the peak during monsoon in the Mahanadi estuary (6033 ± 9478 μmol m-2 h-1) and trough during pre-monsoon (21.66± 187.2 μmol m-2 h-1). The estuary acted as a net source of CO2 throughout the study period, with significant seasonality in the flux magnitudes. However, CO2 sequestration via photosynthesis by phytoplankton resulted in lower emission rates toward the atmosphere in summer. This study uses the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to forecast pCO2(water) for the future. Using measured and predicted values, our work demonstrated that pCO2(water) has an upward trend in the Mahanadi estuary. Our results demonstrate that long-term observations from estuaries should be prioritized to upscale the global carbon budget.

Greenhouse Gas Fluxes of Mangrove Soils and Adjacent Coastal Waters in an Urban, Subtropical Estuary

Mangroves are known to sequester carbon at rates exceeding even those of other tropical forests; however, to understand carbon cycling in these systems, soil-atmosphere fluxes and gas exchanges in mangrove-adjacent shallow waters need to be quantified. Further, despite the ever-increasing impact of development on mangrove systems, there is even less data on how subtropical, greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes are affected by urbanization. We quantified carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes from mangrove soils and adjacent, coastal waters along a gradient of urbanization in the densely-populated, subtropical San Juan Bay Estuary (PR). Edaphic (salinity, pH, surface temperature) factors among sites significantly covaried with GHG fluxes. We found that mangrove systems in more highly-urbanized reaches of the estuary were characterized by relatively lower porewater salinities and substantially larger GHG emissions, particularly CH4, which has a high global warming potential. The magnitude of the CO2 emissions was similar in the mangrove soils and adjacent waters, but the CH4 emissions in the adjacent waters were an order of magnitude higher than in the soils and showed a marked response to urbanization. This study underscores the importance of considering GHG emissions of adjacent waters in carbon cycling dynamics in urbanized, tropical mangrove systems.

Lateral Export of Dissolved Inorganic and Organic Carbon from a Small Mangrove Estuary with Tidal Fluctuation

The significance of aquatic lateral carbon (C) export in mangrove ecosystems highlights the extensive contribution of aquatic pathways to the net ecosystem carbon budget. However, few studies have investigated lateral fluxes of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and inorganic carbon (DIC), partly due to methodological difficulty. Therefore, we evaluated area-based lateral C fluxes in a small mangrove estuary that only had one exit for water exchange to the coast. We sampled water from the mouth of the creek and integrated discharge and consecutive concentration of mangrove-derived C (ΔC). Then, we estimated the area-normalized C fluxes based on the inundated mangrove area. DIC and DOC concentrations at the river mouth increased during ebb tide during both summer and winter. We quantified the ΔC in the estuary using a two-component conservative mixing model of freshwater and seawater. DIC and DOC proportions of ΔC concentrations at the river mouth during ebb tide was between 34% and 56% in the winter and 26% and 42% in the summer, respectively. DIC and DOC fluxes from the estuary were estimated to be 1.36 g C m−2 d−1 and 0.20 g C m−2 d−1 in the winter and 3.35 g C m−2 d−1 and 0.86 g C m−2 d−1 in the summer, respectively. Based on our method, daily fluxes are mangrove area-based DIC and DOC lateral exports that can be directly incorporated into the mangrove carbon budget.

Carbon Cycling in the World’s Mangrove Ecosystems Revisited: Significance of Non-Steady State Diagenesis and Subsurface Linkages between the Forest Floor and the Coastal Ocean

Carbon cycling within the deep mangrove forest floor is unique compared to other marine ecosystems with organic carbon input, mineralization, burial, and advective and groundwater export pathways being in non-steady-state, often oscillating in synchrony with tides, plant uptake, and release/uptake via roots and other edaphic factors in a highly dynamic and harsh environment. Rates of soil organic carbon (CORG) mineralization and belowground CORG stocks are high, with rapid diagenesis throughout the deep (>1 m) soil horizon. Pocketed with cracks, fissures, extensive roots, burrows, tubes, and drainage channels through which tidal waters percolate and drain, the forest floor sustains non-steady-state diagenesis of the soil CORG, in which decomposition processes at the soil surface are distinct from those in deeper soils. Aerobic respiration occurs within the upper 2 mm of the soil surface and within biogenic structures. On average, carbon respiration across the surface soil-air/water interface (104 mmol C m−2 d−1) equates to only 25% of the total carbon mineralized within the entire soil horizon, as nearly all respired carbon (569 mmol C m−2 d−1) is released in a dissolved form via advective porewater exchange and/or lateral transport and subsurface tidal pumping to adjacent tidal waters. A carbon budget for the world’s mangrove ecosystems indicates that subsurface respiration is the second-largest respiratory flux after canopy respiration. Dissolved carbon release is sufficient to oversaturate water-column pCO2, causing tropical coastal waters to be a source of CO2 to the atmosphere. Mangrove dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) discharge contributes nearly 60% of DIC and 27% of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) discharge from the world’s low latitude rivers to the tropical coastal ocean. Mangroves inhabit only 0.3% of the global coastal ocean area but contribute 55% of air-sea exchange, 14% of CORG burial, 28% of DIC export, and 13% of DOC + particulate organic matter (POC) export from the world’s coastal wetlands and estuaries to the atmosphere and global coastal ocean.

Methane emissions reduce the radiative cooling effect of a subtropical estuarine mangrove wetland by half

The role of coastal mangrove wetlands in sequestering atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂ ) and mitigating climate change has received increasing attention in recent years. While recent studies have shown that methane (CH₄ ) emissions can potentially offset the carbon burial rates in low-salinity coastal wetlands, there is hitherto a paucity of direct and year-round measurements of ecosystem-scale CH₄ flux (F_CH4 ) from mangrove ecosystems. In this study, we examined the temporal variations and biophysical drivers of ecosystem-scale F_CH4 in a subtropical estuarine mangrove wetland based on 3 years of eddy covariance measurements. Our results showed that daily mangrove F_CH4 reached a peak of over 0.1 g CH₄ -C m^-2  day^-1 during the summertime owing to a combination of high temperature and low salinity, while the wintertime F_CH4 was negligible. In this mangrove, the mean annual CH₄ emission was 11.7 ± 0.4 g CH₄ -C m^-2  year^-1 while the annual net ecosystem CO₂ exchange ranged between -891 and -690 g CO₂ -C m^-2  year^-1 , indicating a net cooling effect on climate over decadal to centurial timescales. Meanwhile, we showed that mangrove F_CH4 could offset the negative radiative forcing caused by CO₂ uptake by 52% and 24% over a time horizon of 20 and 100 years, respectively, based on the corresponding sustained-flux global warming potentials. Moreover, we found that 87% and 69% of the total variance of daily F_CH4 could be explained by the random forest machine learning algorithm and traditional linear regression model, respectively, with soil temperature and salinity being the most dominant controls. This study was the first of its kind to characterize ecosystem-scale F_CH4 in a mangrove wetland with long-term eddy covariance measurements. Our findings implied that future environmental changes such as climate warming and increasing river discharge might increase CH₄ emissions and hence reduce the net radiative cooling effect of estuarine mangrove forests.

Estimating the full greenhouse gas emissions offset potential and profile between rehabilitating and established mangroves

Mangrove forests are extremely productive, with rates of growth rivaling some terrestrial tropical rainforests. However, our understanding of the full suite of processes underpinning carbon exchange with the atmosphere and near shore-waters, the allocation of carbon in mangroves, and fluxes of non-CO₂ greenhouse gases (GHGs) are limited to a handful of studies. This constrains the scientific basis from which to advocate for greater support for and investment in mangrove restoration and conservation. Improving understanding is urgently needed given the on-going landuse pressures mangrove forests face, particularly throughout much of Southeast Asia. The current study reduces uncertainties by providing a holistic synthesis of the net potential GHG mitigation benefits resulting from rehabilitating mangroves and established forests. Rehabilitating sites from two contrasting locations representative of high (Tiwoho) and low (Tanakeke) productivity systems on the island of Sulawesi (Indonesia) were used as case studies to compare against established mangroves. A carbon budget, allocation and pathways model was developed to account for inputs (carbon sequestration) and outputs (GHG emissions of CO₂, N₂O and CH₄) to estimate Net Ecosystem Production (NEP) and Net Ecosystem Carbon Balance (NECB). Our results indicate that while Tiwoho's rehabilitating sites and established mangroves represent a significant carbon sink (-10.6 ± 0.9 Mg CO₂e ha^-1 y^-1 and 16.1 Mg CO₂e ha^-1 y^-1 respectively), the low productivity of Tanakeke has resulted in minimal reductions to date (0.7 ± 0.3 Mg CO₂e ha^-1 y^-1). Including NEP from mangrove-allied primary producer communities (e.g. benthic algae) and the portion of dissolved inorganic carbon exported from mangroves (EX_DIC) that remains within the water column may drive overall removals considerably upwards in established forests to -37.2 Mg CO₂e ha^-1 y^-1. These values are higher than terrestrial forests and strengthen the evidence base needed to underpin the use of forest carbon financing mechanisms for mangrove restoration.

Marine water from mid-Holocene sea level highstand trapped in a coastal aquifer: Evidence from groundwater isotopes, and environmental significance

A multi-layered coastal aquifer in southeast Australia was assessed using environmental isotopes, to identify the origins of salinity and its links to palaeo-environmental setting. Spatial distribution of groundwater salinity (electrical conductivity values ranging from 0.395 to 56.1 mS/cm) was examined along the coastline along with geological, isotopic and chemical data. This allowed assessment of different salinity sources and emplacement mechanisms. Molar chloride/bromide ratios range from 619 to 1070 (621 to 705 in samples with EC >15 mS/cm), indicating salts are predominantly marine. Two distinct vertical salinity profiles were observed, one with increasing salinity with depth and another with saline shallow water overlying fresh groundwater. The saline shallow groundwater (EC=45.4 to 55.7 mS/cm) has somewhat marine-like stable isotope ratios (δ(18)O=-2.4 to -1.9 ‰) and radiocarbon activities indicative of middle Holocene emplacement (47.4 to 60.4pMC). This overlies fresher groundwater with late Pleistocene radiocarbon ages and meteoric stable isotopes (δ(18)O=-5.5 to -4.6‰). The configuration suggests surface inundation of the upper sediments by marine water during the mid-Holocene (c. 2-8 kyr BP), when sea level was 1-2m above today's level. Profiles of chloride, stable isotopes, and radiocarbon indicate mixing between this pre-modern marine water and fresh meteoric groundwater to varying degrees around the coastline. Mixing calculations using chloride and stable isotopes show that in addition to fresh-marine water mixing, some salinity is derived from transpiration by halophytic vegetation (e.g. mangroves). The δ(13)C ratios in saline water (-17.6 to -18.4‰) also have vegetation/organic matter signatures, consistent with emplacement by surface inundation and extensive interaction between vegetation and recharging groundwater. Saline shallow groundwater is preserved only in areas where low permeability sediments have slowed subsequent downwards propagation. The configuration is unlikely to be stable long-term due to fluid density; this may be exacerbated by pumping the underlying aquifer.

Differential responses of net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide to light and temperature between spring and neap tides in subtropical mangrove forests

The eddy flux data with field records of tidal water inundation depths of the year 2010 from two mangroves forests in southern China were analyzed to investigate the tidal effect on mangrove carbon cycle. We compared the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and its responses to light and temperature, respectively, between spring tide and neap tide inundation periods. For the most time of the year 2010, higher daytime NEE values were found during spring tides than during neap tides at both study sites. Regression analysis of daytime NEE to photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) using the Landsberg model showed increased sensitivity of NEE to PAR with higher maximum photosynthetic rate during spring tides than neap tides. In contrast, the light compensation points acquired from the regression function of the Landsberg model were smaller during spring tides than neap tides in most months. The dependence of nighttime NEE on soil temperature was lower under spring tide than under neap tides. All these results above indicated that ecosystem carbon uptake rates of mangrove forests were strengthened, while ecosystem respirations were inhibited during spring tides in comparison with those during neap tides, which needs to be considered in modeling mangrove ecosystem carbon cycle under future sea level rise scenarios.

Carbon cycling and storage in mangrove forests

Mangroves are ecologically and economically important forests of the tropics. They are highly productive ecosystems with rates of primary production equal to those of tropical humid evergreen forests and coral reefs. Although mangroves occupy only 0.5% of the global coastal area, they contribute 10-15% (24 Tg C y(-1)) to coastal sediment carbon storage and export 10-11% of the particulate terrestrial carbon to the ocean. Their disproportionate contribution to carbon sequestration is now perceived as a means for conservation and restoration and a way to help ameliorate greenhouse gas emissions. Of immediate concern are potential carbon losses to deforestation (90-970 Tg C y(-1)) that are greater than these ecosystems' rates of carbon storage. Large reservoirs of dissolved inorganic carbon in deep soils, pumped via subsurface pathways to adjacent waterways, are a large loss of carbon, at a potential rate up to 40% of annual primary production. Patterns of carbon allocation and rates of carbon flux in mangrove forests are nearly identical to those of other tropical forests.