The Role of Intensifying Precipitation on Coastal River Flooding and Compound River-Storm Surge Events, Northeast Gulf of Mexico

Nature-based solutions as buffers against coastal compound flooding: Exploring potential framework for process-based modeling of hazard mitigation

As coastal regions face escalating risks from flooding in a changing climate, Nature-based Solutions (NbS) have garnered attention as promising adaptation measures to mitigate the destructive impacts of coastal flooding. However, the challenge of compound flooding, which involves the combined effects of multiple flood drivers, demands a deeper understanding of the efficacy of NbS against this complex phenomenon. This manuscript reviews the literature on process-based modeling of NbS for mitigating compound coastal flooding and identifies knowledge gaps to enhance future research efforts. We used an automated search strategy within the SCOPUS database, followed by a screening process that ultimately resulted in 141 publications assessing the functionality of NbS against coastal flooding. Our review identified a dearth of research (9 %) investigating the performance of NbS against compound flooding scenarios. We examined the challenges and complexities involved in modeling such scenarios, including hydrologic, hydrodynamic, and ecological feedback processes by exploring the studies that used a process-based modeling framework. Key research gaps were identified, such as navigating the complex environment, managing computational costs, and addressing the shortages of experts and data. We outlined potential modeling pathways to improve NbS characterization in the compound flooding framework. Additionally, uncertainties associated with numerical modeling and steps to bridge the research-to-operation gaps were briefly discussed, highlighting the bottlenecks in operational implementation.

Warming waters lead to increased habitat suitability for juvenile bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas)

Coastal ecosystems are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and other stressors, including urbanization and overfishing. Consequently, distributions of coastal fish have begun to change, particularly in response to increasing temperatures linked to climate change. However, few studies have evaluated how natural and anthropogenic disturbances can alter species distributions in conjunction with geophysical habitat alterations, such as changes to land use and land cover (LU/LC). Here, we examine the spatiotemporal changes in the distribution of juvenile bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas) using a multi-decadal fishery-independent survey of coastal Alabama. Using a boosted regression tree (BRT) modeling framework, we assess the covariance of environmental conditions (sea surface temperature, depth, salinity, dissolved oxygen, riverine discharge, Chl-a) as well as historic changes to LU/LC to the distribution of bull sharks. Species distribution models resultant from BRTs for early (2003-2005) and recent (2018-2020) monitoring periods indicated a mean increase in habitat suitability (i.e., probability of capture) for juvenile bull sharks from 0.028 to 0.082, concomitant with substantial increases in mean annual temperature (0.058°C/yr), Chl-a (2.32 mg/m3), and urbanization (increased LU/LC) since 2000. These results align with observed five-fold increases in the relative abundance of juvenile bull sharks across the study period and demonstrate the impacts of changing environmental conditions on their distribution and relative abundance. As climate change persists, coastal communities will continue to change, altering the structure of ecological communities and the success of nearshore fisheries.

The contribution of typhoon local and remote forcings to storm surge along the Makou-Dahengqin tidal reach of Pearl River Estuary

Due to the interaction between upstream discharge and astronomical tides in tidal reaches, the typhoon-induced storm surge processes are quite different from that in other coastal regions. Investigating the contributions of driving factors is essential to deepen the understanding of storm surges in tidal reaches. In this study, a coupled hydrological-hydrodynamic storm surge model is first developed to explore the main driving factors of storm surges in Makou-Dahengqin tidal reach during the three most influential typhoon events (Hagupit, Hato and Mangkhut). After that, the machine learning method is integrated to assess the water level in response to storm surges. The driving factors of storm surge are decomposed into remote forcing (upstream discharge, astronomical tide) and direct local forcing (wind stress, atmospheric pressure). The relative contributions of remote forcing are the highest near the estuary mouth. The relative contributions of local forcing to water levels are higher in the sections 40-80 km away from the estuary mouth. The most impacting period of the local forcing is about 48 h, while the relative contributions of remote forcing increase before and after the period. The local forcing-induced surges are highest at the upper reach during Hagupit, while it causes extreme surges at the estuary mouth during more powerful typhoons (Hato, Mangkhut). The maximum water levels and remote forcing-induced maximum surges invariably appear at the upper reach. However, when local and remote forcings are in the same phase, the maximum storm surge appears in the lower reaches during Hato. If local and remote forcings are in the same phase, the peak water levels would be amplified by up to 15.04 %, 36.23 % and 40.68 % during Hagupit, Hato and Mangkhut, respectively. Moreover, Remote forcing contributes more to the amplification of peak water levels than local forcing does, accounting for 68.5 % to 100 %.

Causes of death and pathogen prevalence in bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus stranded in Alabama, USA, between 2015 and 2020, following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

Between 2010 and 2014, an unusual mortality event (UME) involving bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus occurred in the northern Gulf of Mexico, associated with the Deepwater Horizon oil spill (DWHOS). Cause of death (COD) patterns in bottlenose dolphins since then have not been analyzed, and baseline prevalence data for Brucella ceti and cetacean morbillivirus, 2 pathogens previously reported in this region, are lacking. We analyzed records from bottlenose dolphins stranded in Alabama from 2015 to 2020 with necropsy and histological findings to determine COD (n = 108). This period included another UME in 2019 associated with prolonged freshwater exposure. A subset of individuals that stranded during this period were selected for molecular testing for Brucella spp. and Morbillivirus spp. Causes of death for all age classes were grouped into 6 categories, including (1) human interaction, (2) infectious disease, (3) noninfectious disease (prolonged freshwater exposure and degenerative), (4) trauma, (5) multifactorial, and (6) unknown. Two additional categories unique to perinates included fetal distress and in utero pneumonia. Human interaction was the most common primary COD (19.4%) followed closely by infectious disease (17.6%) and noninfectious disease (freshwater exposure; 13.9%). Brucella was detected in 18.4% of the 98 animals tested, but morbillivirus was not detected in any of the 66 animals tested. Brucella was detected in some moderately to severely decomposed carcasses, indicating that it may be beneficial to test a broad condition range of stranded animals. This study provides valuable information on COD in bottlenose dolphins in Alabama following the DWHOS and is the first to examine baseline prevalence of 2 common pathogens in stranded animals from this region.

Characteristics of Precipitation and Floods during Typhoons in Guangdong Province

The spatial and temporal characteristics of precipitation and floods during typhoons in Guangdong province were examined by using TRMM TMPA 3B42 precipitation data and the Dominant River Routing Integrated with VIC Environment (DRIVE) model outputs for the period 1998–2019. The evaluations based on gauge-measured and model-simulated streamflow show the reliability of the DRIVE model. The typhoon tracks are divided into five categories for those that landed on or influenced Guangdong province. Generally, the spatial distribution of precipitation and floods differ for different typhoon tracks. Precipitation has a similar spatial distribution to flood duration (FD) but is substantially different from flood intensity (FI). The average precipitation over Guangdong province usually reaches its peak at the landing time of typhoons, while the average FD and FI reach their peaks several hours later than precipitation peak. The lagged correlations between precipitation and FD/FI are hence always higher than their simultaneous correlations.

The Role of River Discharge and Geometric Structure on Diurnal Tidal Dynamics, Alabama, USA

As tides propagate inland, they become distorted by channel geometry and river discharge. Tidal dynamics in fluvial-marine transitions are commonly observed in high-energy tidal environments with relatively steady river conditions, leaving the effects of variable river discharge on tides and longitudinal changes poorly understood. To study the effects of variable river discharge on tide-river interactions, we studied a low-energy tidal environment where river discharge ranges several orders of magnitude, the diurnal microtidal Tombigbee River-Mobile Bay fluvial-marine transition, using water level and velocity observations from 21 stations. Results showed that diurnal tidal attenuation was reduced by the width convergence in seaward reaches and height convergence of the landward backwater reaches, with the channel convergence change location ∼40-50 km inland of the bayhead and seaward of the largest bifurcation. River events amplified tides in seaward regions and attenuated tides in landward regions. This created a region of river-induced peak amplitude seaward of the flood limit (i.e., bidirectional-unidirectional current transition), allowing more tidal energy to propagate inland. Tidal currents were attenuated and delayed more by river discharge than water levels, making the phase lag dynamic. The river impacts on the tides were delineated longitudinally and shifted seaward as river discharge increased, ranging up to ∼180 km. Results indicated the longitudinal shifts of river impacts on tides in alluvial systems can be estimated analytically using the ratio of river discharge to tidal discharge and the geometric convergence of the system. Our simple analytical theory provides a pathway for understanding the tide-river-geomorphic equilibrium along increasingly dynamic coasts.