The potentials of uncertainty analysis and Bayesian optimization in HONO source modeling diagnosis and improvement

Nitrous acid (HONO) plays a critical role in atmospheric chemistry, significantly influencing hydroxyl radical (OH) production and the formation of secondary pollutants. However, current atmospheric chemical transport models (CTMs) still underestimate HONO formation, due to uncertainties in source parameterizations. This study proposed a new framework that combines uncertainty analysis with Bayesian optimization (RFM-BMC) to diagnose and reduce uncertainties in HONO source parameterizations, using the North China Plain (NCP) as a case study. The results show that uncertainties in source parameterizations cause HONO simulation concentrations varying by 8-20 times the baseline values. The primary contributors to uncertainties in HONO simulations include heterogeneous reactions on aerosol (33-59 %) and ground surfaces (18-30 %), vehicle emissions (12-33 %), and nitrate photolysis (26-30 %). By optimizing these parameters using observational data, the accuracy of HONO simulations significantly improves, reducing the normalized mean bias by 59 %. Additionally, this study identifies soil emissions, light-induced NO2 heterogeneous reactions and underestimated nitrate as important underrepresented HONO sources in CTMs. These sources contribute to the systematic underestimation of HONO concentrations during midday (08:00-14:00). This work provides valuable insights for refining HONO source parameterizations and improving air quality simulations. Furthermore, the RFM-BMC framework can be applied to optimize parameterizations of other atmospheric chemical processes, such as sulfate and secondary organic aerosol formation.

Numerical Simulation of Topography Impact on Transport and Source Apportionment on PM2.5 in a Polluted City in Fenwei Plain

The unique energy structure, high intensity of coal production, and complex terrain, make Fenwei Plain a highly polluted region in China. In this study, we characterized the transport characteristic and sources of PM2.5 (the fraction of particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm) in Sanmenxia, a polluted city in canyon terrain. The results showed that special topography in Sanmenxia had an important role in the transport of particulates. Sanmenxia is located between two northeast-southwest facing mountains, showing a special local circulation. The local circulation was dominated by a downslope wind at nighttime, while the cross−mountain airflow and zonal wind were dominant during the daytime in the canyon terrain. PM2.5 accumulated near Sanmenxia with the influence of downslope, zonal wind, and topography. The main regional transport paths could be summarized into an eastern path, a northern path, and a western path during the severe haze episodes. The PM2.5 source apportionment revealed by an on-line tracer-tagged of the Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System (NAQPMS) showed that the main regional sources of Sanmenxia were Yuncheng, Sanmenxia, and Weinan. The contribution to PM2.5 concentration in Sanmenxia was 39%, 25%, and 11%, respectively. The northern path had the most important impact on Sanmenxia. The results can provide scientific basis for the establishment of severe haze control in Sanmenxia and regional joint control.

Sensitivity Operator Framework for Analyzing Heterogeneous Air Quality Monitoring Systems

Air quality monitoring systems differ in composition and accuracy of observations and their temporal and spatial coverage. A monitoring system’s performance can be assessed by evaluating the accuracy of the emission sources identified by its data. In the considered inverse modeling approach, a source identification problem is transformed to a quasi-linear operator equation with the sensitivity operator. The sensitivity operator is composed of the sensitivity functions evaluated on the adjoint ensemble members. The members correspond to the measurement data element aggregates. Such ensemble construction allows working in a unified way with heterogeneous measurement data in a single-operator equation. The quasi-linear structure of the resulting operator equation allows both solving and predicting solutions of the inverse problem. Numerical experiments for the Baikal region scenario were carried out to compare different types of inverse problem solution accuracy estimates. In the considered scenario, the projection to the orthogonal complement of the sensitivity operator’s kernel allowed predicting the source identification results with the best accuracy compared to the other estimate types. Our contribution is the development and testing of a sensitivity-operator-based set of tools for analyzing heterogeneous air quality monitoring systems. We propose them for assessing and optimizing observational systems and experiments.

Photoenhanced heterogeneous reaction of O3 with humic acid: Focus on O3 uptake and changes in the composition and optical property

Heterogeneous photochemical reaction of O₃ with humic acid (HA) under simulated sunlight was performed using a flow tube reactor coupled to an O₃ analyzer at ambient pressure. It was confirmed that light significantly enhanced the uptake of O₃ on HA. The initial uptake coefficient (γ_i) and the steady-state uptake coefficient (γ_ss) of O₃ under irradiation increased by 1.6 and 3.8 times compared to those in the dark, respectively. The γ_i and γ_ss on HA varied in the range of 0.76-2.77 × 10^-5 and 1.50-9.55 × 10^-6, respectively, which were dependent on various environmental factors including HA mass, total irradiance, initial O₃ concentration, O₂ content, temperature, relative humidity (RH) and HA solution pH. Both γ_i and γ_ss showed linear dependence on the total irradiance (0-2.07 × 10¹⁶ photons/(cm²⋅s)) of the light source, and increased with the HA mass (0-3.2 μg/cm²), temperature (278-298 K) and HA solution pH (4.0-9.6). However, they showed negative correlations with the initial O₃ concentration and O₂ content. The γ_i remained constant in the RH range of 7%-60%, while γ_ss exhibited the maximum value at RH = 20%. During the ozonization of HA under irradiation, some functional groups were consumed, including CH₂, CH₃, aromatic CC, OH, CO, COOH and COO^-. HA aged by O₃ exhibited a decrease in the mass absorption efficiency (MAE) and a small increase in the absorption Ångström exponent between 300 and 600 nm wavelength (AAE_300,600), which was ascribed to changes in the composition of HA during the photochemical ozonization process.

Characteristics of the source apportionment of primary and secondary inorganic PM2.5 in the Pearl River Delta region during 2015 by numerical modeling

Fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) contains both primary and secondary components, and their source apportionment characteristics in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region during 2015 were compared by applying an air quality model coupled with an on-line tracer-tagged module. The results of contributions from different source regions to primary PM_2.5 (PPM_2.5) and secondary inorganic PM_2.5 (SIPM_2.5) in four selected cities show that the effect of regional transport on the SIPM_2.5 level is stronger than that on the PPM_2.5 level in the PRD region. For both Guangzhou city and the average of the entire PRD region, the industrial (25-40%) and transportation (20-25%) sectors are major sources of PPM_2.5 and SIPM_2.5. However, the residential sector contributes approximately 25% to the PPM_2.5 level, mainly from residential biomass burning, but accounts for only approximately 10% of the SIPM_2.5 level. The relative importance of each sector to the contributions from local and regional transport indicates that industrial emissions appear to lead to regional air pollution, while the transportation emissions seem to mainly affect the local and surrounding areas. Considering the impact of regional contributions to air quality, efforts made to reduce emissions in each city could not only improve the local air quality but also benefit downstream regions. To further decrease the PM_2.5 level, the local government of each city in the PRD region should not only continue to strengthen the control of local emissions, such as those from transportation and residential biomass burning, but also increase their focus on regional joint prevention and control strategies with upstream area (such as northern Guangdong Province, and Jiangxi, Fujian and Hunan provinces).

Improved Inversion of Monthly Ammonia Emissions in China Based on the Chinese Ammonia Monitoring Network and Ensemble Kalman Filter

Ammonia (NH₃) emission inventories are an essential input in chemical transport models and are helpful for policy-makers to refine mitigation strategies. However, current estimates of Chinese NH₃ emissions still have large uncertainties. In this study, an improved inversion estimation of NH₃ emissions in China has been made using an ensemble Kalman filter and the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System. By first assimilating the surface NH₃ observations from the Ammonia Monitoring Network in China at a high resolution of 15 km, our inversion results have provided new insights into the spatial and temporal patterns of Chinese NH₃ emissions. More enhanced NH₃ emission hotspots, likely associated with industrial or agricultural sources, were captured in northwest China, where the a posteriori NH₃ emissions were more than twice the a priori emissions. Monthly variations of NH₃ emissions were optimized in different regions of China and exhibited a more distinct seasonality, with the emissions in summer being twice those in winter. The inversion results were well-validated by several independent datasets that traced gaseous NH₃ and related atmospheric processes. These findings highlighted that the improved inversion estimation can be used to advance our understanding of NH₃ emissions in China and their environmental impacts.

Modeling study of ozone source apportionment over the Pearl River Delta in 2015

In recent years, the concentration of fine particulate matter has decreased gradually in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, but the ozone (O₃) concentration remains high and has become the primary air pollutant. In this study, using a three-dimensional numerical model [nested air quality prediction modeling system (NAQPMS)] coupled with an on-line source apportionment module, the contribution of different source regions and source categories to the O₃ concentration in the PRD region was quantified. A comparison with observation data confirmed that the NAQPMS adequately reproduced surface O₃ concentrations in different seasons. Compared with biogenic emissions, anthropogenic precursors play a dominant role in O₃ production. In Guangzhou city, among different source categories, mobile emission is the largest contributor (accounting for approximately 40%), followed by industry emissions (20%-24%). Regional control measures for solvent use and mobile emissions are effective for reducing O₃ concentration. In the PRD region, self-contribution is more significant in daytime (∼40%) than in nighttime (∼10%) on average. Among the source regions outside PRD, the northern part of Guangdong province, Jiangxi province, and Fujian province are important contributors. Within the PRD region, the self-contribution of each city increases by 12%-32% during O₃ episodes (>80 ppbv) compared with the annual mean contribution. The contribution of the entire PRD region and the entire Guangdong province is 46%-63% and 63%-74% in PRD cities during O₃ episodes. These results indicate that regional collaboration on emission control within PRD or Guangdong province is effective for reducing O₃ episodes in the PRD region. In addition, because long-range transport from regions outside Guangdong province played an important role in the O₃ concentration in the PRD region, long-term emission control measures throughout China in subsequent years should be propitious to further reduce the annual O₃ level and improve air quality in the PRD region.

Importance of mineral dust and anthropogenic pollutants mixing during a long-lasting high PM event over East Asia

A long-lasting high particulate matter (PM) concentration episode persisted over East Asia from May 24 to June 3, 2014. The Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System (NAQPMS) was used to investigate the mixing of dust and anthropogenic pollutants during this episode. Comparison of observations revealed that the NAQPMS successfully reproduced the time series PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ concentrations, as well as the nitrate and sulfate concentrations in fine (aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm) and coarse mode (2.5 μm < aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 μm). This episode originated from two dust events that occurred in the inland desert areas of Mongolia and China, and then the long-range transported dust and anthropogenic pollutants were trapped over the downwind region of East Asia for more than one week due to the blocked north Pacific subtropical high-pressure system over the east of Japan. The model results showed that mineral dust accounted for 53-83% of PM₁₀, and 39-67% of PM_2.5 over five cities in East Asia during this episode. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the Qingdao and Seoul regions experienced dust and pollution twice, by direct transport from the dust source region and from dust detoured over the Shanghai area. The results of the NAQPMS model confirmed the importance of dust heterogeneous reactions (HRs) over East Asia. Simulated dust NO₃^- concentrations accounted for 75% and 84% of total NO₃^- in fine and coarse mode, respectively, in Fukuoka, Japan. The horizontal distribution of model results revealed that the ratio of dust NO₃^-/dust concentration increased from about 1% over the Chinese land mass to a maximum of 8% and 6% respectively in fine and coarse mode over the ocean to the southeast of Japan, indicating that dust NO₃^- was mainly formed over the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea before reaching Japan.

Rapid formation of a severe regional winter haze episode over a mega-city cluster on the North China Plain

The Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System (NAQPMS) was used to investigate an extreme regional haze episode persisting over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei megacity cluster from November 26 to December 1, 2015. During this extreme haze event, the regional daily mean PM_2.5 exceeded 500 μg/m3. We found that local emissions were the main source of haze over Beijing and Hebei in the early formational stage of this episode. The accumulation of regionally transported, highly aged secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA) along the foot of the mountains was responsible (60%) for the rapid increase of surface PM_2.5 in Beijing between November 30 and December 1, although PM_2.5 concentrations in the source regions of Hebei province were lower. The height of regional transport ranged from 200 to 700 m above ground level, with a slow increase with increasing distance of the source regions from Beijing. This indicates that more attention should be given to point sources at heights of 200-500 m in order to reduce the contribution of transport. The contribution of local emissions to haze in Beijing was mostly concentrated below 300 m above ground level, and was more significant for black carbon (BC) and organic matter (OM) than SIA. Tagging of pollutants by emission time showed that PM_2.5 had been aged before it arrived at Beijing, and PM_2.5 formed one or more days prior to arrival was twice that formed on the arrival day. This suggests that control measures would be more effective if they were implemented two days prior to haze episodes. In contrast to Beijing, haze in Tianjin was governed by transport from outside sources, whereas in cities located in Hebei province this episode resulted from local emissions.

Relationship of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons with oxy(quinone) and nitro derivatives during air mass transport

Airborne concentrations of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAH), quinone and nitro derivatives have been measured at three sites on the coast of Saudi Arabia to the north of the city of Jeddah. The PAH show a general reduction in concentrations from northwest to southeast, consistent with a source from a petrochemical works to the northwest of the sampling sites. In comparison, the concentrations of quinones show little variation between the sampling sites consistent with these being predominantly longer lived secondary pollutants formed from PAH oxidation. The nitro-PAH show a gradient in concentrations similar to but smaller than that for the PAH suggesting a balance between atmospheric formation and removal by photolysis. The 2-nitrofluoranthene:1-nitropyrene ratio increases from north to south, consistent with atmospheric chemical formation of the former compound, while the ratio of 2-nitrofluoranthene:2-nitropyrene is consistent with hydroxyl radical as the dominant reactant. An investigation of the changes in PAH congener ratios during air mass transport along the Red Sea coast shows consistency with reaction with a relatively low concentration of hydroxyl radical only for the day with the highest concentrations. It is concluded that while PAH degradation is occurring by chemical reaction, emissions from other locations along the air mass trajectory are most probably also leading to changes in congener ratios.

Atmospheric NH3 and NO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition in an agricultural catchment of Eastern China

To assess the atmospheric environmental impacts of anthropogenic reactive nitrogen in the fast-developing Eastern China region, we measured atmospheric concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) and ammonia (NH(3)) as well as the wet deposition of inorganic nitrogen (NO(3)(-) and NH(4)(+)) and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) levels in a typical agricultural catchment in Jiangsu Province, China, from October 2007 to September 2008(.) The annual average gaseous concentrations of NO(2) and NH(3) were 42.2 microg m(-3) and 4.5 microg m(-3) (0 degree C, 760 mm Hg), respectively, whereas those of NO(3)(-), NH(4)(+), and DON in the rainwater within the study catchment were 1.3, 1.3, and 0.5 mg N L(-1), respectively. No clear difference in gaseous NO(2) concentrations and nitrogen concentrations in collected rainwater was found between the crop field and residential sites, but the average NH(3) concentration of 5.4 microg m(-3) in residential sites was significantly higher than that in field sites (4.1 microg m(-3)). Total depositions were 40 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) for crop field sites and 30 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) for residential sites, in which dry depositions (NO(2) and NH(3)) were 7.6 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) for crop field sites and 1.9 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) for residential sites. The DON in the rainwater accounted for 16% of the total wet nitrogen deposition. Oxidized N (NO(3)(-) in the precipitation and gaseous NO(2)) was the dominant form of nitrogen deposition in the studied region, indicating that reactive forms of nitrogen created from urban areas contribute greatly to N deposition in the rural area evaluated in this study.

Massive global ozone loss predicted following regional nuclear conflict

We use a chemistry-climate model and new estimates of smoke produced by fires in contemporary cities to calculate the impact on stratospheric ozone of a regional nuclear war between developing nuclear states involving 100 Hiroshima-size bombs exploded in cities in the northern subtropics. We find column ozone losses in excess of 20% globally, 25-45% at midlatitudes, and 50-70% at northern high latitudes persisting for 5 years, with substantial losses continuing for 5 additional years. Column ozone amounts remain near or <220 Dobson units at all latitudes even after three years, constituting an extratropical "ozone hole." The resulting increases in UV radiation could impact the biota significantly, including serious consequences for human health. The primary cause for the dramatic and persistent ozone depletion is heating of the stratosphere by smoke, which strongly absorbs solar radiation. The smoke-laden air rises to the upper stratosphere, where removal mechanisms are slow, so that much of the stratosphere is ultimately heated by the localized smoke injections. Higher stratospheric temperatures accelerate catalytic reaction cycles, particularly those of odd-nitrogen, which destroy ozone. In addition, the strong convection created by rising smoke plumes alters the stratospheric circulation, redistributing ozone and the sources of ozone-depleting gases, including N(2)O and chlorofluorocarbons. The ozone losses predicted here are significantly greater than previous "nuclear winter/UV spring" calculations, which did not adequately represent stratospheric plume rise. Our results point to previously unrecognized mechanisms for stratospheric ozone depletion.

Assessing spatial occurrence of ground level ozone around coal mining areas of Chandrapur District, Maharashtra, India

Stratospheric input and photochemical ozone formation in the troposphere are the two main sources determining the ozone levels in the surface layer of the atmosphere. Because of the importance of ozone in controlling the atmospheric chemistry and its decisive role in the heat balance of atmosphere, leading to climate change, the examination of its formation and destruction are of great interest. This study characterized the distribution of Ground level Ozone (GLO) in Chandrapur district is lying between 19 degrees 25'N to 20 degrees 45'N and 78 degrees 50'E to 80 degrees 10'E. Continuous ozone analyzer was used to quantify GLO at thirteen locations fixed by Global Positioning System (GPS) during the winter of 2005-2006. The daily GLO at all the locations ranged between 6.4 and 24.8 ppbv with an average and standard deviation of 14.9 +/- 6.5 ppbv. The maximum and minimum concentration occurs during 1300-1600 h and 0300-0500 h may be due to high solar radiation facilitating photochemical production of O(3) and downward mixing from the overlying air mass and in situ destruction of ozone by deposition and/or the reaction between O(3) and NO. GIS based spatial distribution of GLO in Chandrapur district is indicates that the central core of the district and southern sites experienced elevated levels of GLO relative to the northern and western areas. The sites near by Chandrapur city are particularly affected by elevated GLO. The average variation of GLO with temperature shows a significant correlation of r = 0.55 indicating a direct relationship between GLO and temperature. Similarly an attempt has been made to compare the GLO monitored data in Chandrapur district with the reported values for other locations in Indian cities. This generated database helps regulatory agencies to identify locations where the natural resources and human health could be at risk.

Analysis of carbon monoxide budget in North China

A global chemical transport model (MOZART-2; model of ozone and related tracers, version 2) was used to assess physical and chemical processes that control the budget of tropospheric carbon monoxide (CO) in North China. Satellite observations of CO from the measurements of pollution in the troposphere (MOPITT) instrument are combined with model results for the analysis. The comparison between the model simulations and the satellite observations of total column CO (TCO) shows that the model can reproduce the spatial and temporal distributions. However, the model results underestimate TCO by 23% in North China. This underestimation of TCO may be caused by the uncertainties of emissions. The tropospheric CO budget analysis suggests that in North China, surface emission is the largest source of tropospheric CO. The main sinks of tropospheric CO in this region are chemical reaction and stratosphere_and_troposphere exchange. The analysis also shows that most of inflow CO to Pacific regions comes from the upwind regions of North China. This transport of CO is significant during Winter and Spring time.

Kinetics of α-Hydroxy-alkylperoxyl Radicals in Oxidation Processes. HO2•-Initiated Oxidation of Ketones/Aldehydes near the Tropopause

A comparative theoretical study is presented on the formation and decomposition of alpha-hydroxy-alkylperoxyl radicals, Q(OH)OO* (Q = RR'C:), important intermediates in the oxidation of several classes of oxygenated organic compounds in atmospheric chemistry, combustion, and liquid-phase autoxidation of hydrocarbons. Detailed potential energy surfaces (PESs) were computed for the HOCH2O2* <==>HO2* + CH2O reaction and its analogues for the alkyl-substituted RCH(OH)OO* and R2C(OH)OO* and the cyclic cyclo-C6H10(OH)OO*. The state-of-the-art ab initio methods G3 and CBS-QB3 and a nearly converged G2M//B3LYP-DFT variant were found to give quasi-identical results. On the basis of the G2M//B3LYP-DFT PES, the kinetics of the approximately equal to 15 kcal/mol endothermal alpha-hydroxy-alkylperoxyl decompositions and of the reverse HO2*+ ketone/aldehyde reactions were evaluated using multiconformer transition state theory. The excellent agreement with the available experimental (kinetic) data validates our methodologies. Contrary to current views, HO2* is found to react as fast with ketones as with aldehydes. The high forward and reverse rates are shown to lead to a fast Q(OH)OO* <==>HO2* + carbonyl quasi-equilibrium. The sizable [Q(OH)OO*]/[carbonyl] ratios predicted for formaldehyde, acetone, and cyclo-hexanone at the low temperatures (below 220 K) of the earth's tropopause are shown to result in efficient removal of these carbonyls through fast subsequent Q(OH)OO* reactions with NO and HO2*. IMAGES model calculations indicate that at the tropical tropopause the HO2*-initiated oxidation of formaldehyde and acetone may account for 30% of the total removal of these major atmospheric carbonyls, thereby also substantially affecting the hydroxyl and hydroperoxyl radical budgets and contributing to the production of formic and acetic acids in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. On the other hand, an RRKM-master equation analysis shows that hot alpha-hydroxy-alkylperoxyls formed by the addition of O(2) to C(1)-, C(2)-, and C(3)-alpha-hydroxy-alkyl radicals will quasi-uniquely fragment to HO2* plus the carbonyl under all atmospheric conditions.

Tropopause Chemistry Revisited: HO2•-Initiated Oxidation as an Efficient Acetone Sink

Acetone is known to be a key species in the chemistry of the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere. In this theoretical study, using amply validated methodologies, the hitherto overlooked reaction of acetone with HO2* radicals is found to lead to a fast equilibrium (CH3)2C=O + HO2* right harpoon over left harpoon (CH3)2C(OH)OO*. At room temperature, this is shifted entirely to the left and thus of no consequence. However, near the tropopause (T </= 220 K), the equilibrium is shown to shift to the right to such an extent that the subsequent reaction of (CH3)2C(OH)OO* with (partly air-traffic-generated) NO becomes an effective acetone sink. This process finally results in acetic acid, thus explaining the great abundance of this important organic acid observed near the tropopause.

Increasing Ozone over the Atlantic Ocean

Ship-borne ozone (O3) measurements over the Atlantic Ocean during the period from 1977 to 2002 show that O3 trends in the northern mid-latitudes are small. In contrast, remarkably large O3 trends occur at low latitudes and in the Southern Hemisphere, where near-surface O3 has increased by up to a factor of 2. The likely cause is the substantial increase of anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) associated with energy use in Africa, which has added to NOx from biomass burning and natural sources.