Machine learning and CORDEX-Africa regional model for assessing the impact of climate change on the Gilgel Gibe Watershed, Ethiopia

Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges of our time, profoundly impacting global water resources and sustainability. This study aimed to predict the long-term effects of climate change on the Gilgel Gibe watershed by integrating machine learning (ML) methods and climate model scenarios. Utilizing an ensemble mean of four regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Africa project, we forecast future climatic conditions. Although global and regional climate simulations offer valuable insights, their limitations necessitate alternative approaches, such as ML, for improved accuracy. Employing an ensemble ML model with Random Forest (RF), Extra Tree (ET), and CatBoost (CB) algorithms, we assessed various bias-correction methods using historical data from 1993 to 2009. Our results highlight the effectiveness of distribution mapping (DM) in capturing temperature variability and precipitation patterns, using the power transpiration (PT) method to represent precipitation variability. Projections indicate a decline in future precipitation under the RCP 8.5 (-32.2%) and SSP 4.5 (-88.8%) for 2024-2049, with further decreases expected for 2050-2099. Conversely, temperatures will rise under RCP 4.5 (TMAX 0.67 °C) and RCP 8.5 (TMAX 0.25 °C and TMIN 1.11 °C) in the near term, exacerbated by higher emissions under SSP 4.5 and 8.5. By leveraging an ensemble mean of four observed RCMs in an ML framework, our study successfully reproduced future Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and (CMIP6) climatic datasets, with the CB model demonstrating superior performance in predicting future precipitation and temperature trends. These findings offer valuable insights for shaping future climate scenarios and informing policy decisions for the Gilgel Gibe Watershed, thereby enhancing water resource management in the basin and its environs.

LiG Metrology, Correlated Error, and the Integrity of the Global Surface Air-Temperature Record

The published 95% uncertainty of the global surface air-temperature anomaly (GSATA) record through 1980 is impossibly less than the 2σ = ±0.25 °C lower limit of laboratory resolution of 1 °C/division liquid-in-glass (LiG) thermometers. The ~0.7 °C/century Joule-drift of lead- and soft-glass thermometer bulbs renders unreliable the entire historical air-temperature record through the 19th century. A circa 1900 Baudin meteorological spirit thermometer bulb exhibited intense Pb X-ray emission lines (10.55, 12.66, and 14.76 keV). Uncorrected LiG thermometer non-linearity leaves 1σ = ±0.27 °C uncertainty in land-surface air temperatures prior to 1981. The 2σ = ±0.43 °C from LiG resolution and non-linearity obscures most of the 20th century GSATA trend. Systematic sensor-measurement errors are highly pair-wise correlated, possibly across hundreds of km. Non-normal distributions of bucket and engine-intake difference SSTs disconfirm the assumption of random measurement error. Semivariogram analysis of ship SST measurements yields half the error difference mean, ±½Δε_1,2, not the error mean. Transfer-function adjustment following a change of land station air-temperature sensor eliminates measurement independence and forward-propagates the antecedent uncertainty. LiG resolution limits, non-linearity, and sensor field calibrations yield GSATA mean ±2σ RMS uncertainties of, 1900-1945, ±1.7 °C; 1946-1980, ±2.1 °C; 1981-2004, ±2.0 °C; and 2005-2010, ±1.6 °C. Finally, the 20th century (1900-1999) GSATA, 0.74 ± 1.94 °C, does not convey any information about rate or magnitude of temperature change.

Media, interpersonal communication, personal characteristics and online participation for climate change: structural equation modelling to determine digital discourse in Pakistan

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to fill the gap by researching the direct effects of media and personal characteristics on online participation in climate change, indirect effects when mediated by interpersonal communication and personal characteristics as predictors of media communications as sources of information about climate change.

Design/methodology/approach

A structured questionnaire is distributed to collect data about the uses of communication sources and online responses toward climate change by using a quota sampling technique. The structural equation modeling by using Smart PLS 4 is used to explore the effects’ size.

Findings

Small levels of direct and indirect effects are found. Direct effects are found in online newspapers, YouTube, television news, personal relevance toward climate change and political interest in online participation in climate change. Indirect effects are found of WhatsApp on online climate participation through interpersonal communication. Personal relevance toward climate change has motivated respondents to take information about climate change from Facebook. Climate skepticism is found among respondents who have received information from television news/talk shows, printed newspapers and WhatsApp.

Practical implications

University teachers in Pakistan will have to work on educational strategies to increase the knowledge of university students about energy generation through carbon and renewable energy sources.

Originality/value

The results of this study highlight the communicative-cultural dimensions of online discourse about climate change in the context of the less-researched country of Pakistan. This is the first study of researchers’ knowledge that comprehensively defines the digital media ecology in the context of climate change considering Pakistan.

The Future Extreme Temperature under RCP8.5 Reduces the Yields of Major Crops in Northern Peninsular of Southeast Asia

This study explores the impact of rising near-future temperatures on crop yields, particularly rice and maize, in northern Thailand between 2020 and 2029. The potential for high temperatures in northern Thailand between 2020 and 2029 under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario indicates that Thailand experienced hot trends between 2020 and 2029 as measured by the annual maximum value of daily maximum temp (TXx), annual minimum value of daily maximum temp (TXn), annual minimum value of daily minimum temp (TNn), and annual maximum value of daily minimum temp (TNx). Northern Thailand had the most dramatic changes in TXn and TNn. Furthermore, TXn levels were found to be significantly higher in northern Thailand. The number of days when TX < 10th percentile (TX10p) intensity decreased, while the number of days with TN < 10th percentile (TN10p) intensity was increasing. The number of days when TN > 90th percentile (TX90p) has become increasingly rare in northern Thailand. The TN90p was dropping in northern Thailand, whereas the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) was growing. Additionally, the cold spell duration index (CSDI) continues to decline. This indicates that the heat persistence index is increasing in northern Thailand. Temperature rises are the most likely to have a detrimental impact on agricultural production, and climate models can predict regional temperature changes with more precision than precipitation. Throughout the planting season (June-December), average yearly temperatures in rice and maize growing areas have climbed by 0.5–0.6°C. The impact estimates for maize and rice are generally negative, that is, −10 ± 4.6% per °C and −8 ± 3.5% per °C, respectively.

Importance of Dead Wood in Virgin Forest Ecosystem Functioning in Southern Carpathians

Dead wood (DW) is an important component of sustainable forest management and climate change mitigation. Three research plots (each with an area of 1 ha), located in virgin forests in the Southern Carpathians (Semenic P20, Retezat–Zănoaga, and Făgăraș–Șinca), were installed in order to study the synergies between DW and climate change mitigation effects. Data on the dendrometric characteristics of standing and lying DW, the species, and the degree of decay were recorded. The aboveground biomass (AGB) and carbon stock (CS) of the DW were also determined. The DW volume was between 48 m3·ha−1 and 148 m3·ha−1, with the total volume (dead and alive) ranging between 725 m3·ha−1 and 966 m3·ha−1. The DW volume distribution shows a decreasing trend, with the most suitable theoretical distributions for describing this being the lognormal, the 2P Weibull, and the 2P-Gamma. The AGB ranged between 17 t·ha−1 and 30 t·ha−1 and showed a decreasing trend according to altitude. The CS was between 8 t·ha−1 and 14.33 t·ha−1. A slow decomposition rate for the hardwood was identified by analyzing the relationship between the surface and volume of the DW. This highlighted the capacity of DW to store carbon for a long period of time.

Spatio-Temporal Heterogeneity of Climate Warming in the Chinese Tianshan Mountainous Region

The Chinese Tianshan mountainous region (CTMR) is a typical alpine region with high topographic heterogeneity, characterized by a large altitude span, complex topography, and diverse landscapes. A significant increase in air temperature had occurred in the CTMR during the last five decades. However, the detailed, comprehensive, and systematical characteristics of climate warming, such as its temporal and spatial heterogeneity, remain unclear. In this study, the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of climate warming across the CTMR had been comprehensively analyzed based on the 10-day air temperature data gathered during 1961–2020 from 26 meteorological stations. The results revealed local cooling in the context of general warming in the CTMR. The amplitude of variation (AV) varied from −0.57 to 3.64 °C, with the average value of 1.19 °C during the last six decades. The lapse rates of the elevation-dependent warming that existed annually, and in spring, summer, and autumn are −0.5 °C/100 m, −0.5 °C/100 m, −0.7 °C/100 m, and −0.4 °C/100 m, respectively. The warming in the CTMR is characteristic of high temporal heterogeneity, as represented by the amplified warming at 10-d scale for more than half a year, and the values of AV were higher than 1.09 °C of the global warming during 2011–2020 (GWV2011–2020). Meanwhile, the amplitudes of warming differed greatly on a seasonal scale, with the rates in spring, autumn, and winter higher than that in summer. The large spatial heterogeneity of climate warming also occurred across the CTMR. The warming pole existed in the warm part, the Turpan-Hami basin (below 1000 m asl) where the air temperature itself was high. That is, the warm places were warmer across the CTMR. The cooling pole was also found in the Kuqa region (about 1000 m asl). This study could greatly improve the understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics, patterns, and regional heterogeneity of climate warming across the CTMR and even northwest China.

Aerosols optical depth and Ångström exponent over different regions in Garhwal Himalaya, India

Aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Ångström exponent (AE) are observed to be important parameters in understanding the status of ambient aerosol concentration over a particular location and depend not only upon the local but also on the large-scale dynamics of the atmosphere. The present article analyses the AOD and AE parameters retrieved with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) and Multi-angle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer (MISR) instruments onboard satellites, for the upper (Chamoli) and foothill (Dehradun) regions of Garhwal Himalaya in Uttarakhand, India, from 2006 to 2015. Aerosol properties are investigated at monthly, seasonal, and annual scales. The monthly mean values of MODIS-derived AOD and AE were observed to be 0.18 (± 0.14) and 1.05 (± 0.43) respectively over the Dehradun region. The seasonal maximums in AOD with MODIS and MISR were observed as 0.23 ± 0.06 and 0.29 ± 0.07 respectively in the pre-monsoon season, and the minimum values (0.099 ± 0.02) were observed in the post-monsoon season, over the Dehradun region. In contrast, in the Chamoli region, the maximum AOD (MODIS) was 0.21 ± 0.06 observed in the monsoon season and the minimum was 0.036 ± 0.007 in the post-monsoon season. Over a decade, the AE for Chamoli and Dehradun was found to vary from 0.07 to 0.17 and from 0.14 to 0.20 respectively. The median AE for Chamoli and Dehradun was found to be 1.49 and 1.47 respectively, marking the dominance of fine mode particles of anthropogenic origin. Observations show the presence of dust and polluted dust resulting from the long-range transport from the west. The comparison of AOD values from the two sensors shows a significant correlation (0.73) with slightly higher values from MISR over the year. The results obtained are important in understanding the climatic implications due to the atmospheric aerosols over the abovementioned Himalayan region of Uttarakhand, India.

Impacts of Tropical Cyclones on Longleaf Pine Ecosystems of Florida: Tropical Cyclogenesis, Landfall Frequencies, and Climate Change

Tropical storms and hurricanes (collectively hereafter, tropical cyclones) are among the most destructive forces in nature. These threats are of particular concern to human populations and ecosystems of coastal areas of the southeastern United States, most especially in the State of Florida. This review begins with an overview of the effects of tropical cyclones on Florida’s most conspicuous terrestrial ecosystem—longleaf pine. Environmental factors leading to tropical cyclogenesis will also be reviewed, with a specific focus on (1) landfall history in Florida, and (2) the potential relationship between climate change and the frequency/intensity of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Ocean. Given its geographical distribution, it is not surprising that longleaf pine has long been impacted by tropical cyclones of the North Atlantic. Tropical cyclones are formed from a complex combination of meteorological conditions, driven initially by the release of excess heat from the surface waters of the ocean, along with an unstable atmosphere comprising air temperatures decreasing and wind speeds increasing with altitude. Among the coastal counties from Texas to Maine, those of Florida have experienced by far the highest frequency of tropical cyclones, especially the southern tip of peninsular Florida, with its most populous county (Miami-Dade) receiving 25 hits from 1900 to 2010, second only to Monroe County (32 hits) during that period. Frequencies of all categories of cyclones have increased significantly from 1850 to the present. Cyclone frequencies were significantly correlated with increases in air and ocean temperatures, both of which have increased over the past, suggesting a causal relationship with anthropogenic climate change. Of future concern is how increases in frequencies and intensities of tropical cyclones will negatively affect the structure and function of these ecologically and economically important longleaf pine ecosystems.

Current research status of large river systems: a cross-continental comparison

Rivers play an irreplaceable role in nature and human society but are the most vulnerable ecosystem in the world to multiple environmental stressors. However, the global-scale research status and the distribution patterns of major stressors in large rivers remain unclear. This study analysed research publications (12,807 documents from 1900 to 2019) related to six large rivers with continental representativeness to tackle these knowledge gaps. The results showed that the total outputs have grown rapidly over the study period, particularly since the 1990s. Consistent with the varied environmental characteristics and problems among the rivers, the research outputs and focuses demonstrated clear differences, which could further be attributed to geographical location, journal preferences and the economic strength of the country in which the river is located. Overall, climate change was the most frequently and widely considered environmental stressor in large rivers. Regardless of climate change, species diversity and hydropower development were widely addressed in the Amazon, Congo and Mekong river basins. Water pollution was the main stressor studied in the Rhine River and Mississippi River, while agricultural irrigation and drought were the most frequently addressed research subjects in the Murray-Darling River. This study provides a comprehensive understanding of the research status and stressor distribution in large global rivers, highlighting the relationship between river research and geographical regions, pointing out future research directions and providing management guidance for large rivers.

How Much Human-Caused Global Warming Should We Expect with Business-As-Usual (BAU) Climate Policies? A Semi-Empirical Assessment

In order to assess the merits of national climate change mitigation policies, it is important to have a reasonable benchmark for how much human-caused global warming would occur over the coming century with “Business-As-Usual” (BAU) conditions. However, currently, policymakers are limited to making assessments by comparing the Global Climate Model (GCM) projections of future climate change under various different “scenarios”, none of which are explicitly defined as BAU. Moreover, all of these estimates are ab initio computer model projections, and policymakers do not currently have equivalent empirically derived estimates for comparison. Therefore, estimates of the total future human-caused global warming from the three main greenhouse gases of concern (CO2, CH4, and N2O) up to 2100 are here derived for BAU conditions. A semi-empirical approach is used that allows direct comparisons between GCM-based estimates and empirically derived estimates. If the climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases implies a Transient Climate Response (TCR) of ≥ 2.5 °C or an Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) of ≥ 5.0 °C then the 2015 Paris Agreement’s target of keeping human-caused global warming below 2.0 °C will have been broken by the middle of the century under BAU. However, for a TCR < 1.5 °C or ECS < 2.0 °C, the target would not be broken under BAU until the 22nd century or later. Therefore, the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “likely” range estimates for TCR of 1.0 to 2.5 °C and ECS of 1.5 to 4.5 °C have not yet established if human-caused global warming is a 21st century problem.

Verification of extreme event attribution: Using out-of-sample observations to assess changes in probabilities of unprecedented events

Independent verification of anthropogenic influence on specific extreme climate events remains elusive. This study presents a framework for such verification. This framework reveals that previously published results based on a 1961-2005 attribution period frequently underestimate the influence of global warming on the probability of unprecedented extremes during the 2006-2017 period. This underestimation is particularly pronounced for hot and wet events, with greater uncertainty for dry events. The underestimation is reflected in discrepancies between probabilities predicted during the attribution period and frequencies observed during the out-of-sample verification period. These discrepancies are most explained by increases in climate forcing between the attribution and verification periods, suggesting that 21st-century global warming has substantially increased the probability of unprecedented hot and wet events. Hence, the use of temporally lagged periods for attribution-and, more broadly, for extreme event probability quantification-can cause underestimation of historical impacts, and current and future risks.

Adaptation Design Tool for Climate-Smart Management of Coral Reefs and Other Natural Resources

Scientists and managers of natural resources have recognized an urgent need for improved methods and tools to enable effective adaptation of management measures in the face of climate change. This paper presents an Adaptation Design Tool that uses a structured approach to break down an otherwise overwhelming and complex process into tractable steps. The tool contains worksheets that guide users through a series of design considerations for adapting their planned management actions to be more climate-smart given changing environmental stressors. Also provided with other worksheets is a framework for brainstorming new adaptation options in response to climate threats not yet addressed in the current plan. Developed and tested in collaboration with practitioners in Hawai'i and Puerto Rico using coral reefs as a pilot ecosystem, the tool and associated reference materials consist of worksheets, instructions and lessons-learned from real-world examples. On the basis of stakeholder feedback from expert consultations during tool development, we present insights and recommendations regarding how to maximize tool efficiency, gain the greatest value from the thought process, and deal with issues of scale and uncertainty. We conclude by reflecting on how the tool advances the theory and practice of assessment and decision-making science, informs higher level strategic planning, and serves as a platform for a systematic, transparent and inclusive process to tackle the practical implications of climate change for management of natural resources.

Trading off Aircraft Fuel Burn and NO x Emissions for Optimal Climate Policy

Aviation emits pollutants that affect the climate, including CO₂ and NO _x, NO _x indirectly so, through the formation of tropospheric ozone and reduction of ambient methane. To improve the fuel performance of engines, combustor temperatures and pressures often increase, increasing NO _x emissions. Conversely, combustor modifications to reduce NO _x may increase CO₂. Hence, a technology trade-off exists, which also translates to a trade-off between short-lived climate forcers and a long-lived greenhouse gas, CO₂. Moreover, the NO _x-O₃-CH₄ system responds in a nonlinear manner, according to both aviation emissions and background NO _x. A simple climate model was modified to incorporate nonlinearities parametrized from a complex chemistry model. Case studies showed that for a scenario of a 20% reduction in NO _x emissions the consequential CO₂ penalty of 2% actually increased the total radiative forcing (RF). For a 2% fuel penalty, NO _x emissions needed to be reduced by >43% to realize an overall benefit. Conversely, to ensure that the fuel penalty for a 20% NO _x emission reduction did not increase overall forcing, a 0.5% increase in CO₂ was found to be the "break even" point. The time scales of the climate effects of NO _x and CO₂ are quite different, necessitating careful analysis of proposed emissions trade-offs.

State of Science: ergonomics and global issues

In his 1993 IEA keynote address, Neville Moray urged the ergonomics discipline to face up to the global problems facing humanity and consider how ergonomics might help find some of the solutions. In this State of Science article we critically evaluate what the ergonomics discipline has achieved in the last two and a half decades to help create a secure future for humanity. Moray's challenges for ergonomics included deriving a value structure that moves us beyond a Westernised view of worker-organisation-technology fit, taking a multidisciplinary approach which engages with other social and biological sciences, considering the gross cross-cultural factors that determine how different societies function, paying more attention to mindful consumption, and embracing the complexity of our interconnected world. This article takes a socio-historical approach by considering the factors that influence what has been achieved since Moray's keynote address. We conclude with our own set of predictions for the future and priorities for addressing the challenges that we are likely to face. Practitioner Summary: We critically reflect on what has been achieved by the ergonomics profession in addressing the global challenges raised by Moray's 1993 keynote address to the International Ergonomics Association. Apart from healthcare, the response has largely been weak and disorganised. We make suggestions for priority research and practice that is required to facilitate a sustainable future for humanity.

Practice and philosophy of climate model tuning across six U.S. modeling centers

Model calibration (or "tuning") is a necessary part of developing and testing coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models regardless of their main scientific purpose. There is an increasing recognition that this process needs to become more transparent for both users of climate model output and other developers. Knowing how and why climate models are tuned and which targets are used is essential to avoiding possible misattributions of skillful predictions to data accommodation and vice versa. This paper describes the approach and practice of model tuning for the six major U.S. climate modeling centers. While details differ among groups in terms of scientific missions, tuning targets and tunable parameters, there is a core commonality of approaches. However, practices differ significantly on some key aspects, in particular, in the use of initialized forecast analyses as a tool, the explicit use of the historical transient record, and the use of the present day radiative imbalance vs. the implied balance in the pre-industrial as a target.

Forest ecosystems of temperate climatic regions: from ancient use to climate change

871 I. 871 II. 874 III. 875 IV. 878 V. 882 884 References 884 SUMMARY: Humans have long utilized resources from all forest biomes, but the most indelible anthropogenic signature has been the expanse of human populations in temperate forests. The purpose of this review is to bring into focus the diverse forests of the temperate region of the biosphere, including those of hardwood, conifer and mixed dominance, with a particular emphasis on crucial challenges for the future of these forested areas. Implicit in the term 'temperate' is that the predominant climate of these forest regions has distinct cyclic, seasonal changes involving periods of growth and dormancy. The specific temporal patterns of seasonal change, however, display an impressive variability among temperate forest regions. In addition to the more apparent current anthropogenic disturbances of temperate forests, such as forest management and conversion to agriculture, human alteration of temperate forests is actually an ancient phenomenon, going as far back as 7000 yr before present (bp). As deep-seated as these past legacies are for temperate forests, all current and future perturbations, including timber harvesting, excess nitrogen deposition, altered species' phenologies, and increasing frequency of drought and fire, must be viewed through the lens of climate change.

Coldest Temperature Extreme Monotonically Increased and Hottest Extreme Oscillated over Northern Hemisphere Land during Last 114 Years

Most studies on global warming rely on global mean surface temperature, whose change is jointly determined by anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) and natural variability. This introduces a heated debate on whether there is a recent warming hiatus and what caused the hiatus. Here, we presented a novel method and applied it to a 5° × 5° grid of Northern Hemisphere land for the period 1900 to 2013. Our results show that the coldest 5% of minimum temperature anomalies (the coldest deviation) have increased monotonically by 0.22 °C/decade, which reflects well the elevated anthropogenic GHG effect. The warmest 5% of maximum temperature anomalies (the warmest deviation), however, display a significant oscillation following the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), with a warming rate of 0.07 °C/decade from 1900 to 2013. The warmest (0.34 °C/decade) and coldest deviations (0.25 °C/decade) increased at much higher rates over the most recent decade than last century mean values, indicating the hiatus should not be interpreted as a general slowing of climate change. The significant oscillation of the warmest deviation provides an extension of previous study reporting no pause in the hottest temperature extremes since 1979, and first uncovers its increase from 1900 to 1939 and decrease from 1940 to 1969.

Differential response of cell-cycle and cell-expansion regulators to heat stress in apple (Malus domestica) fruitlets

Temperature is one of the most significant factors affecting physiological and biochemical aspects of fruit development. Current and progressing global warming is expected to change climate in the traditional deciduous fruit tree cultivation regions. In this study, 'Golden Delicious' trees, grown in a controlled environment or commercial orchard, were exposed to different periods of heat treatment. Early fruitlet development was documented by evaluating cell number, cell size and fruit diameter for 5-70 days after full bloom. Normal activities of molecular developmental and growth processes in apple fruitlets were disrupted under daytime air temperatures of 29°C and higher as a result of significant temporary declines in cell-production and cell-expansion rates, respectively. Expression screening of selected cell cycle and cell expansion genes revealed the influence of high temperature on genetic regulation of apple fruitlet development. Several core cell-cycle and cell-expansion genes were differentially expressed under high temperatures. While expression levels of B-type cyclin-dependent kinases and A- and B-type cyclins declined moderately in response to elevated temperatures, expression of several cell-cycle inhibitors, such as Mdwee1, Mdrbr and Mdkrps was sharply enhanced as the temperature rose, blocking the cell-cycle cascade at the G1/S and G2/M transition points. Moreover, expression of several expansin genes was associated with high temperatures, making them potentially useful as molecular platforms to enhance cell-expansion processes under high-temperature regimes. Understanding the molecular mechanisms of heat tolerance associated with genes controlling cell cycle and cell expansion may lead to the development of novel strategies for improving apple fruit productivity under global warming.

A two-fold increase of carbon cycle sensitivity to tropical temperature variations

Earth system models project that the tropical land carbon sink will decrease in size in response to an increase in warming and drought during this century, probably causing a positive climate feedback. But available data are too limited at present to test the predicted changes in the tropical carbon balance in response to climate change. Long-term atmospheric carbon dioxide data provide a global record that integrates the interannual variability of the global carbon balance. Multiple lines of evidence demonstrate that most of this variability originates in the terrestrial biosphere. In particular, the year-to-year variations in the atmospheric carbon dioxide growth rate (CGR) are thought to be the result of fluctuations in the carbon fluxes of tropical land areas. Recently, the response of CGR to tropical climate interannual variability was used to put a constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to climate change. Here we use the long-term CGR record from Mauna Loa and the South Pole to show that the sensitivity of CGR to tropical temperature interannual variability has increased by a factor of 1.9 ± 0.3 in the past five decades. We find that this sensitivity was greater when tropical land regions experienced drier conditions. This suggests that the sensitivity of CGR to interannual temperature variations is regulated by moisture conditions, even though the direct correlation between CGR and tropical precipitation is weak. We also find that present terrestrial carbon cycle models do not capture the observed enhancement in CGR sensitivity in the past five decades. More realistic model predictions of future carbon cycle and climate feedbacks require a better understanding of the processes driving the response of tropical ecosystems to drought and warming.

Perception of climate change

"Climate dice," describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons, have become more and more "loaded" in the past 30 y, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature anomalies has shifted toward higher temperatures and the range of anomalies has increased. An important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (3σ) warmer than the climatology of the 1951-1980 base period. This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1% of Earth's surface during the base period, now typically covers about 10% of the land area. It follows that we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small. We discuss practical implications of this substantial, growing, climate change.

A history of futures: A review of scenario use in water policy studies in the Netherlands

The future of human life in the world's river deltas depends on the success of water management. To deal with uncertainties about the future, policymakers in the Netherlands have used scenarios to develop water management strategies for the coastal zone of the Rhine-Meuse delta. In this paper we reflect on six decades of scenario use in the Netherlands, and provide recommendations for future studies. Based on two criteria, 'Decision robustness' and 'Learning success', we conclude that (1) the possibilities for robust decisionmaking increased through a paradigm shift from predicting to exploring futures, but the scenario method is not yet fully exploited for decisionmaking under uncertainty; and (2) the scenarios enabled learning about possible impacts of developments and effectiveness of policy options. New scenario approaches are emerging to deal with the deep uncertainties water managers are currently facing.

Considerations for parameter optimization and sensitivity in climate models

Climate models exhibit high sensitivity in some respects, such as for differences in predicted precipitation changes under global warming. Despite successful large-scale simulations, regional climatology features prove difficult to constrain toward observations, with challenges including high-dimensionality, computationally expensive simulations, and ambiguity in the choice of objective function. In an atmospheric General Circulation Model forced by observed sea surface temperature or coupled to a mixed-layer ocean, many climatic variables yield rms-error objective functions that vary smoothly through the feasible parameter range. This smoothness occurs despite nonlinearity strong enough to reverse the curvature of the objective function in some parameters, and to imply limitations on multimodel ensemble means as an estimator of global warming precipitation changes. Low-order polynomial fits to the model output spatial fields as a function of parameter (quadratic in model field, fourth-order in objective function) yield surprisingly successful metamodels for many quantities and facilitate a multiobjective optimization approach. Tradeoffs arise as optima for different variables occur at different parameter values, but with agreement in certain directions. Optima often occur at the limit of the feasible parameter range, identifying key parameterization aspects warranting attention--here the interaction of convection with free tropospheric water vapor. Analytic results for spatial fields of leading contributions to the optimization help to visualize tradeoffs at a regional level, e.g., how mismatches between sensitivity and error spatial fields yield regional error under minimization of global objective functions. The approach is sufficiently simple to guide parameter choices and to aid intercomparison of sensitivity properties among climate models.

Trends in intra- and inter-annual temperature variabilities across Sudan

Four mean temperature variables, namely maximum (MAX), minimum (MIN), mean (MEAN) and diurnal temperature range (DTR), were considered for 14 selected observational stations throughout Sudan. The objectives were to investigate the seasonal and annual regimes, the seasonal and annual trends, the intra-annual variability (IAV) by the coefficient of variation (CV), and the interrelationships between the temperature variables and percent of possible sunshine. A mounting evidence of daytime and nighttime warming since the 1940s until 2005 is presented. The exception is the dry season which is dominated by daytime cooling attributable to the damping effect of dust haze/storms. Apparently, the progressive drought across inland locations has raised the MAXs, and to a lesser extent the MINs, of the wet season over those for the hot season. Accordingly, maximum rates of 0.451 and 0.336 degrees C decade(-1) were found for the nighttime and daytime temperatures, respectively. The extreme eastern and western locations have been frequently dominated by the warmest trend rates obtained nationwide. The prevalence of significant decreases (increases) of DTR is more apparent in the dry, hot and annual series (wet series). Depending on the temperature variable under consideration, many stations possessed significant trends toward either increased or decreased variability of the within-year monthly values, i.e. IAV. The correlation between the time series of annual CV and extreme values for each of the four temperature variables shows generally that warmer climate in Sudan is associated with higher intra-annual temperature variability and vise versa, i.e. the CV is directly correlated with the highest value within the year, but inversely correlated with the lowest one. The findings of this investigation also indicate that the DTR is directly related to percent of possible sunshine, but the relationship of the latter parameter is not so clear with MAX, MIN and MEAN.

The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment

Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.

Equilibrium and kinetic analysis of CO2–N2 adsorption separation by concentration pulse chromatography

CO2 and N(2) adsorption kinetics and equilibrium behaviours have been studied with silicalite, NaY and 13X by using concentration pulse chromatography for the separation of these gases in the present study. Adsorption Henry's Law constants, the heat of adsorption values, micropore diffusion coefficients and corresponding activation energies are determined experimentally and the three different mass transfer mechanisms are discussed. From the equilibrium data, the corresponding separation factors are obtained for the adsorption separation processes. The heat of adsorption values as well as the Henry's Law adsorption equilibrium constants of CO(2) are much higher than those of N(2) for all the adsorbents studied. 13X, NaY and silicalite all have good separation factors for CO(2)/N(2) system based on equilibrium processes. The order of the equilibrium separation factors is 13X (Ceca)>13X (Zeochem)>NaY (UOP)>>silicalite (UOP). Equilibrium selectivity favours CO(2) over N(2). Micropore diffusion resistance is the definite dominant mass transfer mechanism for CO(2) with silicalite and NaY.