Removal of chlorofluorocarbons by increased mass exchange between the stratosphere and troposphere in a changing climate

Dependence of column ozone on future ODSs and GHGs in the variability of 500-ensemble members

State-of-the-art chemistry-climate models (CCMs) have indicated that a future decrease in ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) combined with an increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) would increase the column ozone amount in most regions except the tropics and Antarctic. However, large Arctic ozone losses have occurred at a frequency of approximately once per decade since the 1990s (1997, 2011 and 2020), despite the ODS concentration peaking in the mid-1990s. To understand this, CCMs were used to conduct 24 experiments with ODS and GHG concentrations set based on predicted values for future years; each experiment consisted of 500-member ensembles. The 50 ensemble members with the lowest column ozone in the mid- and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere showed a clear ODS dependence associated with low temperatures and a strong westerly zonal mean zonal wind. Even with high GHG concentrations, several ensemble members showed extremely low spring column ozone in the Arctic when ODS concentration remained above the 1980-1985 level. Hence, ODS concentrations should be reduced to avoid large ozone losses in the presence of a stable Arctic polar vortex. The average of the lowest 50 members indicates that GHG increase towards the end of the twenty-first century will not cause worse Arctic ozone depletion.

Evaluation of the N2O Rate of Change to Understand the Stratospheric Brewer-Dobson Circulation in a Chemistry-Climate Model

The Brewer-Dobson Circulation (BDC) determines the distribution of long-lived tracers in the stratosphere; therefore, their changes can be used to diagnose changes in the BDC. We evaluate decadal (2005-2018) trends of nitrous oxide (N₂O) in two versions of the Whole Atmosphere Chemistry-Climate Model (WACCM) by comparing them with measurements from four Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) ground-based instruments, the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS), and with a chemistry-transport model (CTM) driven by four different reanalyses. The limited sensitivity of the FTIR instruments can hide negative N₂O trends in the mid-stratosphere because of the large increase in the lowermost stratosphere. When applying ACE-FTS measurement sampling on model datasets, the reanalyses from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) compare best with ACE-FTS, but the N₂O trends are consistently exaggerated. The N₂O trends obtained with WACCM disagree with those obtained from ACE-FTS, but the new WACCM version performs better than the previous above the Southern Hemisphere in the stratosphere. Model sensitivity tests show that the decadal N₂O trends reflect changes in the stratospheric transport. We further investigate the N₂O Transformed Eulerian Mean (TEM) budget in WACCM and in the CTM simulation driven by the latest ECMWF reanalysis. The TEM analysis shows that enhanced advection affects the stratospheric N₂O trends in the Tropics. While no ideal observational dataset currently exists, this model study of N₂O trends still provides new insights about the BDC and its changes because of the contribution from relevant sensitivity tests and the TEM analysis.

On the response of the middle atmosphere to anthropogenic forcing

Anthropogenic forcing of the atmosphere by greenhouse gases (GHG) and ozone-depleting substances has provided an unintended test of the robustness of current understanding of the physics and chemistry of the middle atmosphere, that is, the stratosphere and mesosphere. We explore this topic by examining how well anthropogenic changes can be simulated by modern, comprehensive numerical models. Specifically, we discuss the simulations of trends in global mean temperature; the development of the ozone hole and its impact on the dynamics of the Southern Hemisphere, both in the stratosphere and troposphere; trends in the stratospheric Brewer-Dobson circulation; and the response of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) to increasing burdens of CO₂ . We find that, in most of these cases, numerical simulation is able to reproduce observed changes and provide physical insights into the relevant mechanisms. Simulation of the QBO is on a less firm footing. Although many numerical models can now generate realistic QBOs, future projections of its behavior under the increasing burdens of GHG are inconsistent and even contradictory.

Significant impact of heterogeneous reactions of reactive chlorine species on summertime atmospheric ozone and free-radical formation in north China

Heterogeneous reactions of N₂O₅, O₃, OH, ClONO₂, HOCl, ClNO₂, and NO₂, with chlorine-containing particles are incorporated in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to evaluate the impact of heterogeneous reactions of reactive chlorine species on ozone and free radicals. Changes of summertime ozone and free radical concentrations due to the additional heterogeneous reactions in north China were quantified. These heterogeneous reactions increased the O₃, OH, HO₂ and RO₂ concentrations by up to 20%, 28%, 36% and 48% for some regions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) area. These areas typically have a larger amount of NOx emissions and a lower VOC/NOx ratio. The zero-out method evaluates that the photolysis of ClNO₂ and Cl₂ are the major contributors (42.4% and 57.6%, respectively) to atmospheric Cl in the early morning hours but the photolysis of Cl₂ is the only significant contributor after 10:00 am. The results highlight that heterogeneous reactions of reactive chlorine species are important to atmospheric ozone and free-radical formation. Our study also suggests that the on-going NOx emission controls in the NCP region with a goal to reduce both O₃ and secondary nitrate can also have the co-benefit of reducing the formation Cl from ClNO₂ and Cl₂, which may also lead to lower secondary organic aerosol formation and thus the control of summertime PM_2.5 in the region.

Large impacts, past and future, of ozone-depleting substances on Brewer-Dobson circulation trends: A multi-model assessment

Substantial increases in the atmospheric concentration of well-mixed greenhouse gases (notably CO2), such as those projected to occur by the end of the 21st century under large radiative forcing scenarios, have long been known to cause an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) in climate models. More recently, however, several single-model studies have proposed that ozone-depleting substances might also be important drivers of BDC trends. As these studies were conducted with different forcings over different periods, it is difficult to combine them to obtain a robust quantitative picture of the relative importance of ozone-depleting substances as drivers of BDC trends. To this end we here analyze - over identical past and future periods - the output from 20 similarly-forced models, gathered from two recent chemistry-climate modeling intercomparison projects. Our multi-model analysis reveals that ozone-depleting substances are responsible for more than half of the modeled BDC trends in the two decades 1980-2000. We also find that, as a consequence of the Montreal Protocol, decreasing concentrations of ozone-depleting substances in coming decades will strongly decelerate the BDC until the year 2080, reducing the age-of-air trends by more than half, and will thus substantially mitigate the impact of increasing CO2. As ozone-depleting substances impact BDC trends, primarily, via the depletion/recovery of stratospheric ozone over the South Pole, they impart seasonal and hemispheric asymmetries to the trends which may offer opportunities for detection in coming decades.

The influence of mixing on stratospheric age of air changes in the 21st century

Climate models consistently predict an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) due to climate change in the 21st century. However, the strength of this acceleration varies considerably among individual models, which constitutes a notable source of uncertainty for future climate projections. To shed more light upon the magnitude of this uncertainty and on its causes, we analyze the stratospheric mean age of air (AoA) of 10 climate projection simulations from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative phase 1 (CCMI-I), covering the period between 1960 and 2100. In agreement with previous multi-model studies, we find a large model spread in the magnitude of the AoA trend over the simulation period. Differences between future and past AoA are found to be predominantly due to differences in mixing (reduced aging by mixing and recirculation) rather than differences in residual mean transport. We furthermore analyze the mixing efficiency, a measure of the relative strength of mixing for given residual mean transport, which was previously hypothesized to be a model constant. Here, the mixing efficiency is found to vary not only across models, but also over time in all models. Changes in mixing efficiency are shown to be closely related to changes in AoA and quantified to roughly contribute 10% to the long-term AoA decrease over the 21st century. Additionally, mixing efficiency variations are shown to considerably enhance model spread in AoA changes. To understand these mixing efficiency variations, we also present a consistent dynamical framework based on diffusive closure, which highlights the role of basic state potential vorticity gradients in controlling mixing efficiency and therefore aging by mixing.

Climate change impacts on human health over Europe through its effect on air quality

This review examines the current literature on the effects of future emissions and climate change on particulate matter (PM) and O₃ air quality and on the consequent health impacts, with a focus on Europe. There is considerable literature on the effects of climate change on O₃ but fewer studies on the effects of climate change on PM concentrations. Under the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th assessment report (AR5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), background O₃ entering Europe is expected to decrease under most scenarios due to higher water vapour concentrations in a warmer climate. However, under the extreme pathway RCP8.5 higher (more than double) methane (CH₄) abundances lead to increases in background O₃ that offset the O₃ decrease due to climate change especially for the 2100 period. Regionally, in polluted areas with high levels of nitrogen oxides (NO_x), elevated surface temperatures and humidities yield increases in surface O₃ - termed the O₃ climate penalty - especially in southern Europe. The O₃ response is larger for metrics that represent the higher end of the O₃ distribution, such as daily maximum O₃. Future changes in PM concentrations due to climate change are much less certain, although several recent studies also suggest a PM climate penalty due to high temperatures and humidity and reduced precipitation in northern mid-latitude land regions in 2100.A larger number of studies have examined both future climate and emissions changes under the RCP scenarios. Under these pathways the impact of emission changes on air quality out to the 2050s will be larger than that due to climate change, because of large reductions in emissions of O₃ and PM pollutant precursor emissions and the more limited climate change response itself. Climate change will also affect climate extreme events such as heatwaves. Air pollution episodes are associated with stagnation events and sometimes heat waves. Air quality during the 2003 heatwave over Europe has been examined in numerous studies and mechanisms for enhancing O₃ have been identified.There are few studies on health effects associated with climate change impacts alone on air quality, but these report higher O₃-related health burdens in polluted populated regions and greater PM_2.5 health burdens in these emission regions. Studies that examine the combined impacts of climate change and anthropogenic emissions change under the RCP scenarios report reductions in global and European premature O₃-respiratory related and PM mortalities arising from the large decreases in precursor emissions. Under RCP 8.5 the large increase in CH₄ leads to global and European excess O₃-respiratory related mortalities in 2100. For future health effects, besides uncertainty in future O₃ and particularly PM concentrations, there is also uncertainty in risk estimates such as effect modification by temperature on pollutant-response relationships and potential future adaptation that would alter exposure risk.

Enzymological mechanism for the regulation of lanthanum chloride on flavonoid synthesis of soybean seedlings under enhanced ultraviolet-B radiation

In order to probe into the enzymological mechanism for the regulation of lanthanum chloride (LaCl3) on flavonoid synthesis in plants under enhanced ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation, the effects of LaCl₃ (20 and 60 mg l(-1)) on the content of flavonoids as well as the activities of phenylalanine ammonia-lyase (PAL), cinnamate-4-hydroxylase (C4H), 4-coumarate : coenzyme A ligase (4CL), and chalcone synthase (CHS) in soybean seedlings under enhanced UV-B radiation (2.6 and 6.2 kJ m(-2) day(-1)) were investigated. Enhanced UV-B radiation (2.6 and 6.2 kJ m(-2) day(-1)) caused the increase in the content of flavonoids as well as the activities of PAL, C4H, 4CL, and CHS in soybean seedlings. The treatment of 20 mg l(-1) LaCl₃ also efficiently increased these indices, which promoted the flavonoid synthesis and provided protective effects for resisting enhanced UV-B radiation. On the contrary, the treatment of 60 mg l(-1) LaCl₃ decreased the content of flavonoids as well as the activities of C4H, 4CL, and CHS in soybean seedlings except increasing the activity of PAL, which were not beneficial to the flavonoid synthesis and provided negative effects for resisting enhanced UV-B radiation. In conclusion, enhanced UV-B radiation caused the increase in the flavonoid synthesis by promoting the activities of PAL, C4H, 4CL, and CHS in soybean seedlings. The treatment of LaCl₃ could change flavonoid synthesis in soybean seedlings under enhanced UV-B radiation by regulating the activities of PAL, C4H, 4CL, and CHS, which is an enzymological mechanism for the regulation of LaCl₃ on flavonoid synthesis in plants under enhanced UV-B radiation.

Stratospheric water vapor feedback

We show here that stratospheric water vapor variations play an important role in the evolution of our climate. This comes from analysis of observations showing that stratospheric water vapor increases with tropospheric temperature, implying the existence of a stratospheric water vapor feedback. We estimate the strength of this feedback in a chemistry-climate model to be +0.3 W/(m(2)⋅K), which would be a significant contributor to the overall climate sensitivity. One-third of this feedback comes from increases in water vapor entering the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause layer, with the rest coming from increases in water vapor entering through the extratropical tropopause.

Characteristics of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) emitted from a municipal waste treatment facility

The emission concentrations of several chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were measured from a municipal waste treatment facility (located in Seoul, Republic of Korea) to investigate the emission characteristics of CFCs in the urban environment. To this end, a total of five CFCs (CFC-10, CFC-11, CFC-20, CFC-30, and CFC-113) were analyzed by the thermal desorption-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (TD-GC-MS) method. The results of this study indicate that the formation of CFC-11 (8.21 ± 1.68 ppb in spring) and CFC-20 (3.92 ± 3.93 ppb in spring) proceeded very actively within the facility. Moreover, CFC-113 was also found in relatively high concentrations (3.34 ± 1.31 ppb in spring) in the treatment facility. Unlike other CFCs, CFC-10 was observed mainly at ambient (and reference) locations and one point inside the treatment facility. In conclusion, emissions of some important CFCs are a prominent process, as they were measured either frequently or abundantly both in winter and spring. It is further indicated that certain CFCs (like CFC-11 and CFC-30) are subject to highly significant seasonal variations.

Non-CO2 greenhouse gases and climate change

Earth's climate is warming as a result of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO(2)) from fossil fuel combustion. Anthropogenic emissions of non-CO(2) greenhouse gases, such as methane, nitrous oxide and ozone-depleting substances (largely from sources other than fossil fuels), also contribute significantly to warming. Some non-CO(2) greenhouse gases have much shorter lifetimes than CO(2), so reducing their emissions offers an additional opportunity to lessen future climate change. Although it is clear that sustainably reducing the warming influence of greenhouse gases will be possible only with substantial cuts in emissions of CO(2), reducing non-CO(2) greenhouse gas emissions would be a relatively quick way of contributing to this goal.

Metabolomic and physiological responses reveal multi-phasic acclimation of Arabidopsis thaliana to chronic UV radiation

Biochemical changes in vivo and pathway interactions were investigated using integrated physiological and metabolic responses of Arabidopsis thaliana L. to ultraviolet (UV) radiation (280-400 nm) at 9.96 kJ m(-2) d(-1) over the entire life cycle from seed to seed (8 weeks). Columbia-0 (Col-0) and a UV-B sensitive accession (fah-1) showed significant (P < 0.001) reductions in leaf growth after 6 weeks. Col-0 recovered growth after 8 weeks, with recovery corresponding to a switch from production of phenylpropanoids to flavonoids. fah-1 failed to recover, indicating that sinapate production is an essential component of recovery. Epidermal features show that UV radiation caused significant (P < 0.001) increases in trichome density, which may act as a structural defence response. Stomatal indices showed a significant (P < 0.0001) reduction in Col-0 and a significant (P < 0.001) increase in fah-1. Epidermal cell density was significantly increased under UV radiation on the abaxial leaf surface, suggesting that that a fully functioning phenylpropanoid pathway is a requirement for cell expansion and leaf development. Despite wild-type acclimation, the costs of adaptation lead to reduced plant fitness by decreasing flower numbers and total seed biomass. A multi-phasic acclimation to UV radiation and the induction of specific metabolites link stress-induced biochemical responses to enhanced acclimation.

Climate/chemistry feedbacks and biogenic emissions

The oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere is affected by anthropogenic emissions and is projected to change in the future. Model calculations indicate that the change in surface ozone at some locations could be large and have significant implications for human health. The calculations depend on the precise scenarios used for the anthropogenic emissions and on the details of the feedback processes included in the model. One important factor is how natural biogenic emissions will change in the future. We carry out a sensitivity calculation to address the possible increase in isoprene emissions consequent on increased surface temperature in a future climate. The changes in ozone are significant but depend crucially on the background chemical regime. In these calculations, we find that increased isoprene will increase ozone in the Northern Hemisphere but decrease ozone in the tropics. We also consider the role of bromine compounds in tropospheric chemistry and consider cases where, in a future climate, the impact of bromine could change.

Changes in biologically active ultraviolet radiation reaching the Earth's surface

Since publication of the 1998 UNEP Assessment, there has been continued rapid expansion of the literature on UV-B radiation. Many measurements have demonstrated the inverse relationship between column ozone amount and UV radiation, and in a few cases long-term increases due to ozone decreases have been identified. The quantity, quality and availability of ground-based UV measurements relevant to assessing the environmental impacts of ozone changes continue to improve. Recent studies have contributed to delineating regional and temporal differences due to aerosols, clouds, and ozone. Improvements in radiative transfer modelling capability now enable more accurate characterization of clouds, snow-cover, and topographical effects. A standardized scale for reporting UV to the public has gained wide acceptance. There has been increased use of satellite data to estimate geographic variability and trends in UV. Progress has been made in assessing the utility of satellite retrievals of UV radiation by comparison with measurements at the Earth's surface. Global climatologies of UV radiation are now available on the Internet. Anthropogenic aerosols play a more important role in attenuating UV irradiances than has been assumed previously, and this will have implications for the accuracy of UV retrievals from satellite data. Progress has been made inferring historical levels of UV radiation using measurements of ozone (from satellites or from ground-based networks) in conjunction with measurements of total solar radiation obtained from extensive meteorological networks. We cannot yet be sure whether global ozone has reached a minimum. Atmospheric chlorine concentrations are beginning to decrease. However, bromine concentrations are still increasing. While these halogen concentrations remain high, the ozone layer remains vulnerable to further depletion from events such as volcanic eruptions that inject material into the stratosphere. Interactions between global warming and ozone depletion could delay ozone recovery by several years, and this topic remains an area of intense research interest. Future changes in greenhouse gases will affect the future evolution of ozone through chemical, radiative, and dynamic processes In this highly coupled system, an evaluation of the relative importance of these processes is difficult: studies are ongoing. A reliable assessment of these effects on total column ozone is limited by uncertainties in lower stratospheric response to these changes. At several sites, changes in UV differ from those expected from ozone changes alone, possibly as a result of long-term changes in aerosols, snow cover, or clouds. This indicates a possible interaction between climate change and UV radiation. Cloud reflectance measured by satellite has shown a long-term increase at some locations, especially in the Antarctic region, but also in Central Europe, which would tend to reduce the UV radiation. Even with the expected decreases in atmospheric chlorine, it will be several years before the beginning of an ozone recovery can be unambiguously identified at individual locations. Because UV-B is more variable than ozone, any identification of its recovery would be further delayed.