Spatio-temporal propagation of cascading overload failures in spatially embedded networks

Hidden high-risk states identification from routine urban traffic

One of the core risk management tasks is to identify hidden high-risk states that may lead to system breakdown, which can provide valuable early warning knowledge. However, due to the high dimensionality and nonlinear interactions embedded in large-scale complex systems like urban traffic, it remains challenging to identify hidden high-risk states from huge system state space where over 99% of possible system states are not yet visited in empirical data. Based on the maximum entropy model, we infer the underlying interaction network from complicated dynamical processes of urban traffic and construct the system energy landscape. In this way, we can locate hidden high-risk states that may have never been observed from real data. These states can serve as risk signals with a high probability of entering hazardous minima in the energy landscape, which lead to huge recovery cost. Our findings might provide insights for complex system risk management.

Hybrid universality classes of systemic cascades

Cascades are self-reinforcing processes underlying the systemic risk of many complex systems. Understanding the universal aspects of these phenomena is of fundamental interest, yet typically bound to numerical observations in ad-hoc models and limited insights. Here, we develop a unifying approach that reveals two distinct universality classes of cascades determined by the global symmetry of the cascading process. We provide hyperscaling arguments predicting hybrid critical phenomena characterized by a combination of both mean-field spinodal exponents and d-dimensional corrections, and show how parity invariance influences the geometry and lifetime of critical avalanches. Our theory applies to a wide range of networked systems in arbitrary dimensions, as we demonstrate by simulations encompassing classic and novel cascade models, revealing universal principles of cascade critical phenomena amenable to experimental validation.

Critical behavior of cascading failures in overloaded networks

While network abrupt breakdowns due to overloads and cascading failures have been studied extensively, the critical exponents and the universality class of such phase transitions have not been discussed. Here, we study breakdowns triggered by failures of links and overloads in networks with a spatial characteristic link length ζ. Our results indicate that this abrupt transition has features and critical exponents similar to those of interdependent networks, suggesting that both systems are in the same universality class. For weakly embedded systems (i.e., ζ of the order of the system size L) we observe a mixed-order transition, where the order parameter collapses following a long critical plateau. On the other hand, strongly embedded systems (i.e., ζ≪L) exhibit a pure first-order transition, involving nucleation and the growth of damage. The system's critical behavior in both limits is similar to that observed in interdependent networks.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of traffic bottlenecks yields an early signal of heavy congestions

Heavy traffic jams are difficult to predict due to the complexity of traffic dynamics. Understanding the network dynamics of traffic bottlenecks can help avoid critical large traffic jams and improve overall traffic conditions. Here, we develop a method to forecast heavy congestions based on their early propagation stage. Our framework follows the network propagation and dissipation of the traffic jams originated from a bottleneck emergence, growth, and its recovery and disappearance. Based on large-scale urban traffic-speed data, we find that dissipation duration of jams follows approximately power-law distributions, and typically, traffic jams dissolve nearly twice slower than their growth. Importantly, we find that the growth speed, even at the first 15 minutes of a jam, is highly correlated with the maximal size of the jam. Our methodology can be applied in urban traffic control systems to forecast heavy traffic bottlenecks and prevent them before they propagate to large network congestions.

Empirical analysis of congestion spreading in Seoul traffic network

Understanding how local traffic congestion spreads in urban traffic networks is fundamental to solving congestion problems in cities. In this work, by analyzing the high-resolution data of traffic velocity in Seoul, we empirically investigate the spreading patterns and cluster formation of traffic congestion in a real-world urban traffic network. To do this, we propose a congestion identification method suitable for various types of interacting traffic flows in urban traffic networks. Our method reveals that congestion spreading in Seoul may be characterized by a treelike structure during the morning rush hour but a more persistent loop structure during the evening rush hour. Our findings suggest that diffusion and stacking processes of local congestion play a major role in the formation of urban traffic congestion.

Understanding congestion propagation by combining percolation theory with the macroscopic fundamental diagram

The science of cities aims to model urban phenomena as aggregate properties that are functions of a system's variables. Following this line of research, this study seeks to combine two well-known approaches in network and transportation science: (i) The macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD), which examines the characteristics of urban traffic flow at the network level, including the relationship between flow, density, and speed. (ii) Percolation theory, which investigates the topological and dynamical aspects of complex networks, including traffic networks. Combining these two approaches, we find that the maximum number of congested clusters and the maximum MFD flow occur at the same moment, precluding network percolation (i.e. traffic collapse). These insights describe the transition of the average network flow from the uncongested phase to the congested phase in parallel with the percolation transition from sporadic congested links to a large, congested cluster of links. These results can help to better understand network resilience and the mechanisms behind the propagation of traffic congestion and the resulting traffic collapse.

Predicting the cascading dynamics in complex networks via the bimodal failure size distribution

Cascading failure as a systematic risk occurs in a wide range of real-world networks. Cascade size distribution is a basic and crucial characteristic of systemic cascade behaviors. Recent research works have revealed that the distribution of cascade sizes is a bimodal form indicating the existence of either very small cascades or large ones. In this paper, we aim to understand the properties and formation characteristics of such bimodal distribution in complex networks and further predict the final cascade size. We first find that the bimodal distribution is ubiquitous under certain conditions in both synthetic and real networks. Moreover, the large cascades distributed in the right peak of bimodal distribution are resulted from either the failure of nodes with high load at the first step of the cascade or multiple rounds of cascades triggered by the initial failure. Accordingly, we propose a hybrid load metric (HLM), which combines the load of the initial broken node and the load of failed nodes triggered by the initial failure, to predict the final size of cascading failures. We validate the effectiveness of HLM by computing the accuracy of identifying the cascades belonging to the right and left peaks of the bimodal distribution. The results show that HLM is a better predictor than commonly used network centrality metrics in both synthetic and real-world networks. Finally, the influence of network structure on the optimal HLM is discussed.

Fragmentation of outage clusters during the recovery of power distribution grids

The understanding of recovery processes in power distribution grids is limited by the lack of realistic outage data, especially large-scale blackout datasets. By analyzing data from three electrical companies across the United States, we find that the recovery duration of an outage is connected with the downtime of its nearby outages and blackout intensity (defined as the peak number of outages during a blackout), but is independent of the number of customers affected. We present a cluster-based recovery framework to analytically characterize the dependence between outages, and interpret the dominant role blackout intensity plays in recovery. The recovery of blackouts is not random and has a universal pattern that is independent of the disruption cause, the post-disaster network structure, and the detailed repair strategy. Our study reveals that suppressing blackout intensity is a promising way to speed up restoration.

Cascading traffic jamming in a two-dimensional Motter and Lai model

We study the cascading traffic jamming on a two-dimensional random geometric graph using the Motter and Lai model. The traffic jam is caused by a localized attack incapacitating a circular region or a line of a certain size, as well as a dispersed attack on an equal number of randomly selected nodes. We investigate if there is a critical size of the attack above which the network becomes completely jammed due to cascading jamming, and how this critical size depends on the average degree 〈k〉 of the graph, on the number of nodes N in the system, and the tolerance parameter α of the Motter and Lai model.

The effect of renewable energy incorporation on power grid stability and resilience

Contemporary proliferation of renewable power generation is causing an overhaul in the topology, composition, and dynamics of electrical grids. These low-output, intermittent generators are widely distributed throughout the grid, including at the household level. It is critical for the function of modern power infrastructure to understand how this increasingly distributed layout affects network stability and resilience. This paper uses dynamical models, household power consumption, and photovoltaic generation data to show how these characteristics vary with the level of distribution. It is shown that resilience exhibits daily oscillations as the grid's effective structure and the power demand fluctuate. This can lead to a substantial decrease in grid resilience, explained by periods of highly clustered generator output. Moreover, the addition of batteries, while enabling consumer self-sufficiency, fails to ameliorate these problems. The methodology identifies a grid's susceptibility to disruption resulting from its network structure and modes of operation.

Traveling of extreme events in network of counter-rotating nonlinear oscillators

We study the propagation of rare or extreme events in a network of coupled nonlinear oscillators, where counter-rotating oscillators play the role of the malfunctioning agents. The extreme events originate from the coupled counter-oscillating pair of oscillators through a mechanism of saddle-node bifurcation. A detailed study of the propagation and the destruction of the extreme events and how these events depend on the strength of the coupling is presented. Extreme events travel only when nearby oscillators are in synchronization. The emergence of extreme events and their propagation are observed in a number of excitable systems for different network sizes and for different topologies.

Approaching Disordered Quantum Dot Systems by Complex Networks with Spatial and Physical-Based Constraints

This paper focuses on modeling a disordered system of quantum dots (QDs) by using complex networks with spatial and physical-based constraints. The first constraint is that, although QDs (=nodes) are randomly distributed in a metric space, they have to fulfill the condition that there is a minimum inter-dot distance that cannot be violated (to minimize electron localization). The second constraint arises from our process of weighted link formation, which is consistent with the laws of quantum physics and statistics: it not only takes into account the overlap integrals but also Boltzmann factors to include the fact that an electron can hop from one QD to another with a different energy level. Boltzmann factors and coherence naturally arise from the Lindblad master equation. The weighted adjacency matrix leads to a Laplacian matrix and a time evolution operator that allows the computation of the electron probability distribution and quantum transport efficiency. The results suggest that there is an optimal inter-dot distance that helps reduce electron localization in QD clusters and make the wave function better extended. As a potential application, we provide recommendations for improving QD intermediate-band solar cells.

Modeling Quantum Dot Systems as Random Geometric Graphs with Probability Amplitude-Based Weighted Links

This paper focuses on modeling a disorder ensemble of quantum dots (QDs) as a special kind of Random Geometric Graphs (RGG) with weighted links. We compute any link weight as the overlap integral (or electron probability amplitude) between the QDs (=nodes) involved. This naturally leads to a weighted adjacency matrix, a Laplacian matrix, and a time evolution operator that have meaning in Quantum Mechanics. The model prohibits the existence of long-range links (shortcuts) between distant nodes because the electron cannot tunnel between two QDs that are too far away in the array. The spatial network generated by the proposed model captures inner properties of the QD system, which cannot be deduced from the simple interactions of their isolated components. It predicts the system quantum state, its time evolution, and the emergence of quantum transport when the network becomes connected.

Universal behavior of cascading failures in interdependent networks

Catastrophic and major disasters in real-world systems, such as blackouts in power grids or global failures in critical infrastructures, are often triggered by minor events which originate a cascading failure in interdependent graphs. We present here a self-consistent theory enabling the systematic analysis of cascading failures in such networks and encompassing a broad range of dynamical systems, from epidemic spreading, to birth-death processes, to biochemical and regulatory dynamics. We offer testable predictions on breakdown scenarios, and, in particular, we unveil the conditions under which the percolation transition is of the first-order or the second-order type, as well as prove that accounting for dynamics in the nodes always accelerates the cascading process. Besides applying directly to relevant real-world situations, our results give practical hints on how to engineer more robust networked systems.

Robust component: a robustness measure that incorporates access to critical facilities under disruptions

The objective of this paper is to integrate the post-disaster network access to critical facilities into the network robustness assessment, considering the geographical exposure of infrastructure to natural hazards. Conventional percolation modelling that uses generating function to measure network robustness fails to characterize spatial networks due to the degree correlation. In addition, the giant component alone is not sufficient to represent the performance of transportation networks in the post-disaster setting, especially in terms of the access to critical facilities (i.e. emergency services). Furthermore, the failure probability of various links in the face of different hazards needs to be encapsulated in simulation. To bridge this gap, this paper proposed the metric robust component and a probabilistic link-removal strategy to assess network robustness through a percolation-based simulation framework. A case study has been conducted on the Portland Metro road network during an M9.0 earthquake scenario. The results revealed how the number of critical facilities severely impacts network robustness. Besides, earthquake-induced failures led to a two-phase percolation transition in robustness performance. The proposed robust component metric and simulation scheme can be generalized into a wide range of scenarios, thus enabling engineers to pinpoint the impact of disastrous disruption on network robustness. This research can also be generalized to identify critical facilities and sites for future development.

Competitive percolation strategies for network recovery

Restoring operation of critical infrastructure systems after catastrophic events is an important issue, inspiring work in multiple fields, including network science, civil engineering, and operations research. We consider the problem of finding the optimal order of repairing elements in power grids and similar infrastructure. Most existing methods either only consider system network structure, potentially ignoring important features, or incorporate component level details leading to complex optimization problems with limited scalability. We aim to narrow the gap between the two approaches. Analyzing realistic recovery strategies, we identify over- and undersupply penalties of commodities as primary contributions to reconstruction cost, and we demonstrate traditional network science methods, which maximize the largest connected component, are cost inefficient. We propose a novel competitive percolation recovery model accounting for node demand and supply, and network structure. Our model well approximates realistic recovery strategies, suppressing growth of the largest connected component through a process analogous to explosive percolation. Using synthetic power grids, we investigate the effect of network characteristics on recovery process efficiency. We learn that high structural redundancy enables reduced total cost and faster recovery, however, requires more information at each recovery step. We also confirm that decentralized supply in networks generally benefits recovery efforts.

Scale-free resilience of real traffic jams

The concept of resilience can be realized in natural and engineering systems, representing the ability of a system to adapt and recover from various disturbances. Although resilience is a critical property needed for understanding and managing the risks and collapses of transportation systems, an accepted and useful definition of resilience for urban traffic as well as its statistical property under perturbations are still missing. Here, we define city traffic resilience based on the spatiotemporal clusters of congestion in real traffic and find that the resilience follows a scale-free distribution in 2D city road networks and 1D highways with different exponents but similar exponents on different days and in different cities. The traffic resilience is also revealed to have a scaling relation between the cluster size of the spatiotemporal jam and its recovery duration independent of microscopic details. Our findings of universal traffic resilience can provide an indication toward better understanding and designing of these complex engineering systems under internal and external disturbances.

Disaster-Resilient Optical Network Survivability: A Comprehensive Survey

Network survivability endeavors to ensure the uninterrupted provisioning of services by the network operators in case of a disaster event. Studies and news reports show that network failures caused by physical attacks and natural disasters have significant impacts on the optical networks. Such network failures may lead to a section of a network to cease to function, resulting in non-availability of services and may increase the congestion within the rest of the network. Therefore, fault tolerant and disaster-resilient optical networks have grasped the attention of the research community and have been a critical concern in network studies during the last decade. Several studies on protection and restoration techniques have been conducted to address the network component failures. This study reviews related previous research studies to critically discuss the issues regarding protection, restoration, cascading failures, disaster-based failures, and congestion-aware routing. We have also focused on the problem of simultaneous cascading failures (which may disturb the data traffic within a layer or disrupt the services at upper layers) along with their mitigating techniques, and disaster-aware network survivability. Since traffic floods and network congestion are pertinent problems, they have therefore been discussed in a separate section. In the end, we have highlighted some open issues in the disaster-resilient network survivability for research challenges and discussed them along with their possible solutions.

Network recovery based on system crash early warning in a cascading failure model

This paper investigates the possibility of saving a network that is predicted to have a cascading failure that will eventually lead to a total collapse. We model cascading failures using the recently proposed KQ model. Then predict an impending total collapse by monitoring critical slowing down indicators and subsequently attempt to prevent the total collapse of the network by adding new nodes. To this end, we systematically evaluate five node addition rules, the effect of intervention delay and network degree heterogeneity. Surprisingly, unlike for random homogeneous networks, we find that a delayed intervention is preferred for saving scale free networks. We also find that for homogeneous networks, the best strategy is to wire newly added nodes to existing nodes in a uniformly random manner. For heterogeneous networks, however, a random selection of nodes based on their degree mostly outperforms a uniform random selection. These results provide new insights into restoring networks by adding nodes after observing early warnings of an impending complete breakdown.

Network overload due to massive attacks

We study the cascading failure of networks due to overload, using the betweenness centrality of a node as the measure of its load following the Motter and Lai model. We study the fraction of survived nodes at the end of the cascade p_{f} as a function of the strength of the initial attack, measured by the fraction of nodes p that survive the initial attack for different values of tolerance α in random regular and Erdös-Renyi graphs. We find the existence of a first-order phase-transition line p_{t}(α) on a p-α plane, such that if p<p_{t}, the cascade of failures leads to a very small fraction of survived nodes p_{f} and the giant component of the network disappears, while for p>p_{t}, p_{f} is large and the giant component of the network is still present. Exactly at p_{t}, the function p_{f}(p) undergoes a first-order discontinuity. We find that the line p_{t}(α) ends at a critical point (p_{c},α_{c}), in which the cascading failures are replaced by a second-order percolation transition. We find analytically the average betweenness of nodes with different degrees before and after the initial attack, we investigate their roles in the cascading failures, and we find a lower bound for p_{t}(α). We also study the difference between localized and random attacks.

Modelling indirect interactions during failure spreading in a project activity network

Spreading broadly refers to the notion of an entity propagating throughout a networked system via its interacting components. Evidence of its ubiquity and severity can be seen in a range of phenomena, from disease epidemics to financial systemic risk. In order to understand the dynamics of these critical phenomena, computational models map the probability of propagation as a function of direct exposure, typically in the form of pairwise interactions between components. By doing so, the important role of indirect interactions remains unexplored. In response, we develop a simple model that accounts for the effect of both direct and subsequent exposure, which we deploy in the novel context of failure propagation within a real-world engineering project. We show that subsequent exposure has a significant effect in key aspects, including the: (a) final spreading event size, (b) propagation rate, and (c) spreading event structure. In addition, we demonstrate the existence of 'hidden influentials' in large-scale spreading events, and evaluate the role of direct and subsequent exposure in their emergence. Given the evidence of the importance of subsequent exposure, our findings offer new insight on particular aspects that need to be included when modelling network dynamics in general, and spreading processes specifically.

Overload-based cascades on multiplex networks and effects of inter-similarity

Although cascading failures caused by overload on interdependent/interconnected networks have been studied in the recent years, the effect of overlapping links (inter-similarity) on robustness to such cascades in coupled networks is not well understood. This is an important issue since shared links exist in many real-world coupled networks. In this paper, we propose a new model for load-based cascading failures in multiplex networks. We leverage it to compare different network structures, coupling schemes, and overload rules. More importantly, we systematically investigate the impact of inter-similarity on the robustness of the whole system under an initial intentional attack. Surprisingly, we find that inter-similarity can have a negative impact on robustness to overload cascades. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to report the competition between the positive and the negative impacts of overlapping links on the robustness of coupled networks. These results provide useful suggestions for designing robust coupled traffic systems.

Resilience and efficiency in transportation networks

Urban transportation systems are vulnerable to congestion, accidents, weather, special events, and other costly delays. Whereas typical policy responses prioritize reduction of delays under normal conditions to improve the efficiency of urban road systems, analytic support for investments that improve resilience (defined as system recovery from additional disruptions) is still scarce. In this effort, we represent paved roads as a transportation network by mapping intersections to nodes and road segments between the intersections to links. We built road networks for 40 of the urban areas defined by the U.S. Census Bureau. We developed and calibrated a model to evaluate traffic delays using link loads. The loads may be regarded as traffic-based centrality measures, estimating the number of individuals using corresponding road segments. Efficiency was estimated as the average annual delay per peak-period auto commuter, and modeled results were found to be close to observed data, with the notable exception of New York City. Resilience was estimated as the change in efficiency resulting from roadway disruptions and was found to vary between cities, with increased delays due to a 5% random loss of road linkages ranging from 9.5% in Los Angeles to 56.0% in San Francisco. The results demonstrate that many urban road systems that operate inefficiently under normal conditions are nevertheless resilient to disruption, whereas some more efficient cities are more fragile. The implication is that resilience, not just efficiency, should be considered explicitly in roadway project selection and justify investment opportunities related to disaster and other disruptions.

Cascading Failures in Interdependent Networks with Multiple Supply-Demand Links and Functionality Thresholds

Various social, financial, biological and technological systems can be modeled by interdependent networks. It has been assumed that in order to remain functional, nodes in one network must receive the support from nodes belonging to different networks. So far these models have been limited to the case in which the failure propagates across networks only if the nodes lose all their supply nodes. In this paper we develop a more realistic model for two interdependent networks in which each node has its own supply threshold, i.e., they need the support of a minimum number of supply nodes to remain functional. In addition, we analyze different conditions of internal node failure due to disconnection from nodes within its own network. We show that several local internal failure conditions lead to similar nontrivial results. When there are no internal failures the model is equivalent to a bipartite system, which can be useful to model a financial market. We explore the rich behaviors of these models that include discontinuous and continuous phase transitions. Using the generating functions formalism, we analytically solve all the models in the limit of infinitely large networks and find an excellent agreement with the stochastic simulations.

Dynamics of functional failures and recovery in complex road networks

We propose a new framework for modeling the evolution of functional failures and recoveries in complex networks, with traffic congestion on road networks as the case study. Differently from conventional approaches, we transform the evolution of functional states into an equivalent dynamic structural process: dual-vertex splitting and coalescing embedded within the original network structure. The proposed model successfully explains traffic congestion and recovery patterns at the city scale based on high-resolution data from two megacities. Numerical analysis shows that certain network structural attributes can amplify or suppress cascading functional failures. Our approach represents a new general framework to model functional failures and recoveries in flow-based networks and allows understanding of the interplay between structure and function for flow-induced failure propagation and recovery.

Limits of Predictability of Cascading Overload Failures in Spatially-Embedded Networks with Distributed Flows

Cascading failures are a critical vulnerability of complex information or infrastructure networks. Here we investigate the properties of load-based cascading failures in real and synthetic spatially-embedded network structures, and propose mitigation strategies to reduce the severity of damages caused by such failures. We introduce a stochastic method for optimal heterogeneous distribution of resources (node capacities) subject to a fixed total cost. Additionally, we design and compare the performance of networks with N-stable and (N-1)-stable network-capacity allocations by triggering cascades using various real-world node-attack and node-failure scenarios. We show that failure mitigation through increased node protection can be effectively achieved against single-node failures. However, mitigating against multiple node failures is much more difficult due to the combinatorial increase in possible sets of initially failing nodes. We analyze the robustness of the system with increasing protection, and find that a critical tolerance exists at which the system undergoes a phase transition, and above which the network almost completely survives an attack. Moreover, we show that cascade-size distributions measured in this region exhibit a power-law decay. Finally, we find a strong correlation between cascade sizes induced by individual nodes and sets of nodes. We also show that network topology alone is a weak predictor in determining the progression of cascading failures.

The interdependent network of gene regulation and metabolism is robust where it needs to be

Despite being highly interdependent, the major biochemical networks of the living cell-the networks of interacting genes and of metabolic reactions, respectively-have been approached mostly as separate systems so far. Recently, a framework for interdependent networks has emerged in the context of statistical physics. In a first quantitative application of this framework to systems biology, here we study the interdependent network of gene regulation and metabolism for the model organism Escherichia coli in terms of a biologically motivated percolation model. Particularly, we approach the system's conflicting tasks of reacting rapidly to (internal and external) perturbations, while being robust to minor environmental fluctuations. Considering its response to perturbations that are localized with respect to functional criteria, we find the interdependent system to be sensitive to gene regulatory and protein-level perturbations, yet robust against metabolic changes. We expect this approach to be applicable to a range of other interdependent networks.Although networks of interacting genes and metabolic reactions are interdependent, they have largely been treated as separate systems. Here the authors apply a statistical framework for interdependent networks to E. coli, and show that it is sensitive to gene and protein perturbations but robust against metabolic changes.

Social contagions on interdependent lattice networks

Although an increasing amount of research is being done on the dynamical processes on interdependent spatial networks, knowledge of how interdependent spatial networks influence the dynamics of social contagion in them is sparse. Here we present a novel non-Markovian social contagion model on interdependent spatial networks composed of two identical two-dimensional lattices. We compare the dynamics of social contagion on networks with different fractions of dependency links and find that the density of final recovered nodes increases as the number of dependency links is increased. We use a finite-size analysis method to identify the type of phase transition in the giant connected components (GCC) of the final adopted nodes and find that as we increase the fraction of dependency links, the phase transition switches from second-order to first-order. In strong interdependent spatial networks with abundant dependency links, increasing the fraction of initial adopted nodes can induce the switch from a first-order to second-order phase transition associated with social contagion dynamics. In networks with a small number of dependency links, the phase transition remains second-order. In addition, both the second-order and first-order phase transition points can be decreased by increasing the fraction of dependency links or the number of initially-adopted nodes.

Traffic congestion and the lifetime of networks with moving nodes

For many power-limited networks, such as wireless sensor networks and mobile ad hoc networks, maximizing the network lifetime is the first concern in the related designing and maintaining activities. We study the network lifetime from the perspective of network science. In our model, nodes are initially assigned a fixed amount of energy moving in a square area and consume the energy when delivering packets. We obtain four different traffic regimes: no, slow, fast, and absolute congestion regimes, which are basically dependent on the packet generation rate. We derive the network lifetime by considering the specific regime of the traffic flow. We find that traffic congestion inversely affects network lifetime in the sense that high traffic congestion results in short network lifetime. We also discuss the impacts of factors such as communication radius, node moving speed, routing strategy, etc., on network lifetime and traffic congestion.

Emergence of event cascades in inhomogeneous networks

There is a commonality among contagious diseases, tweets, and neuronal firings that past events facilitate the future occurrence of events. The spread of events has been extensively studied such that the systems exhibit catastrophic chain reactions if the interaction represented by the ratio of reproduction exceeds unity; however, their subthreshold states are not fully understood. Here, we report that these systems are possessed by nonstationary cascades of event-occurrences already in the subthreshold regime. Event cascades can be harmful in some contexts, when the peak-demand causes vaccine shortages, heavy traffic on communication lines, but may be beneficial in other contexts, such that spontaneous activity in neural networks may be used to generate motion or store memory. Thus it is important to comprehend the mechanism by which such cascades appear, and consider controlling a system to tame or facilitate fluctuations in the event-occurrences. The critical interaction for the emergence of cascades depends greatly on the network structure in which individuals are connected. We demonstrate that we can predict whether cascades may emerge, given information about the interactions between individuals. Furthermore, we develop a method of reallocating connections among individuals so that event cascades may be either impeded or impelled in a network.

Assessing the Influence of an Individual Event in Complex Fault Spreading Network Based on Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph

Identifying the pivotal causes and highly influential spreaders in fault propagation processes is crucial for improving the maintenance decision making for complex systems under abnormal and emergency situations. A dynamic uncertain causality graph-based method is introduced in this paper to explicitly model the uncertain causalities among system components, identify fault conditions, locate the fault origins, and predict the spreading tendency by means of probabilistic reasoning. A new algorithm is proposed to assess the impacts of an individual event by investigating the corresponding node's time-variant betweenness centrality and the strength of global causal influence in the fault propagation network. The algorithm does not depend on the whole original and static network but on the real-time spreading behaviors and dynamics, which makes the algorithm to be specifically targeted and more efficient. Experiments on both simulated networks and real-world systems demonstrate the accuracy, effectiveness, and comprehensibility of the proposed method for the fault management of power grids and other complex networked systems.

Prediction of Cascading Failures in Spatial Networks

Cascading overload failures are widely found in large-scale parallel systems and remain a major threat to system reliability; therefore, they are of great concern to maintainers and managers of different systems. Accurate cascading failure prediction can provide useful information to help control networks. However, for a large, gradually growing network with increasing complexity, it is often impractical to explore the behavior of a single node from the perspective of failure propagation. Fortunately, overload failures that propagate through a network exhibit certain spatial-temporal correlations, which allows the study of a group of nodes that share common spatial and temporal characteristics. Therefore, in this study, we seek to predict the failure rates of nodes in a given group using machine-learning methods.

We simulated overload failure propagations in a weighted lattice network that start with a center attack and predicted the failure percentages of different groups of nodes that are separated by a given distance. The experimental results of a feedforward neural network (FNN), a recurrent neural network (RNN) and support vector regression (SVR) all show that these different models can accurately predict the similar behavior of nodes in a given group during cascading overload propagation.