Accelerated cortical thinning precedes and predicts conversion to psychosis: The NAPLS3 longitudinal study of youth at clinical high-risk

Excessive interstitial free-water in cortical gray matter preceding accelerated volume changes in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis

Recent studies show that accelerated cortical gray matter (GM) volume reduction seen in anatomical MRI can help distinguish between individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis who will develop psychosis and those who will not. This reduction is suggested to represent atypical developmental or degenerative changes accompanying an accumulation of microstructural changes, such as decreased spine density and dendritic arborization. Detecting the microstructural sources of these changes before they accumulate into volume loss is crucial. Our study aimed to detect these microstructural GM alterations using diffusion MRI (dMRI). We tested for baseline and longitudinal group differences in anatomical and dMRI data from 160 individuals at CHR and 96 healthy controls (HC) acquired in a single imaging site. Of the CHR individuals, 33 developed psychosis (CHR-P), while 127 did not (CHR-NP). Among all participants, longitudinal data was available for 45 HCs, 17 CHR-P, and 66 CHR-NP. Eight cortical lobes were examined for GM volume and GM microstructure. A novel dMRI measure, interstitial free water (iFW), was used to quantify GM microstructure by eliminating cerebrospinal fluid contribution. Additionally, we assessed whether these measures differentiated the CHR-P from the CHR-NP. In addition, for completeness, we also investigated changes in cortical thickness and in white matter (WM) microstructure. At baseline the CHR group had significantly higher iFW than HC in the prefrontal, temporal, parietal, and occipital lobes, while volume was reduced only in the temporal lobe. Neither iFW nor volume differentiated between the CHR-P and CHR-NP groups at baseline. However, in many brain areas, the CHR-P group demonstrated significantly accelerated changes (iFW increase and volume reduction) with time than the CHR-NP group. Cortical thickness provided similar results as volume, and there were no significant changes in WM microstructure. Our results demonstrate that microstructural GM changes in individuals at CHR have a wider extent than volumetric changes or microstructural WM changes, and they predate the acceleration of brain changes that occur around psychosis onset. Microstructural GM changes, as reflected by the increased iFW, are thus an early pathology at the prodromal stage of psychosis that may be useful for a better mechanistic understanding of psychosis development.

Brain Age Gap in Early Illness Schizophrenia and the Clinical High-Risk Syndrome: Associations With Experiential Negative Symptoms and Conversion to Psychosis

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS

Brain development/aging is not uniform across individuals,spawning efforts to characterize brain age from a biological perspective to model the effects of disease and maladaptive life processes on the brain. The brain age gap represents the discrepancy between estimated brain biological age and chronological age (in this case, based on structural magnetic resonance imaging, MRI). Structural MRI studies report an increased brain age gap (biological age > chronological age) in schizophrenia, with a greater brain age gap related to greater negative symptom severity. Less is known regarding the nature of this gap early in schizophrenia (ESZ), if this gap represents a psychosis conversion biomarker in clinical high-risk (CHR-P) individuals, and how altered brain development and/or agingmap onto specific symptom facets.

STUDY DESIGN

Using structural MRI, we compared the brain age gap among CHR-P (n = 51), ESZ (n = 78), and unaffected comparison participants (UCP; n = 90), and examined associations with CHR-P psychosis conversion (CHR-P converters n = 10; CHR-P non-converters; n = 23) and positive and negative symptoms.

STUDY RESULTS

ESZ showed a greater brain age gap relative to UCP and CHR-P (Ps < .010). CHR-P individuals who converted to psychosis showed a greater brain age gap (P = .043) relative to CHR-P non-converters. A larger brain age gap in ESZ was associated with increased experiential (P = .008), but not expressive negative symptom severity.

CONCLUSIONS

Consistent with schizophrenia pathophysiological models positing abnormal brain maturation, results suggest abnormal brain development is present early in psychosis. An increased brain age gap may be especially relevant to motivational and functional deficits in schizophrenia.

Regional patterns of human cortex development colocalize with underlying neurobiology

Human brain morphology undergoes complex changes over the lifespan. Despite recent progress in tracking brain development via normative models, current knowledge of underlying biological mechanisms is highly limited. We demonstrate that human cerebral cortex development and aging trajectories unfold along patterns of molecular and cellular brain organization, traceable from population-level to individual developmental trajectories. During childhood and adolescence, cortex-wide spatial distributions of dopaminergic receptors, inhibitory neurons, glial cell populations, and brain-metabolic features explain up to 50% of variance associated with a lifespan model of regional cortical thickness trajectories. In contrast, modeled cortical change patterns during adulthood are best explained by cholinergic and glutamatergic neurotransmitter receptor and transporter distributions. These relationships are supported by developmental gene expression trajectories and translate to individual longitudinal data from over 8,000 adolescents, explaining up to 59% of developmental change at cohort- and 18% at single-subject level. Integrating neurobiological brain atlases with normative modeling and population neuroimaging provides a biologically meaningful path to understand brain development and aging in living humans.

Accelerating Medicines Partnership® Schizophrenia (AMP® SCZ): Rationale and Study Design of the Largest Global Prospective Cohort Study of Clinical High Risk for Psychosis

This article describes the rationale, aims, and methodology of the Accelerating Medicines Partnership® Schizophrenia (AMP® SCZ). This is the largest international collaboration to date that will develop algorithms to predict trajectories and outcomes of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis and to advance the development and use of novel pharmacological interventions for CHR individuals. We present a description of the participating research networks and the data processing analysis and coordination center, their processes for data harmonization across 43 sites from 13 participating countries (recruitment across North America, Australia, Europe, Asia, and South America), data flow and quality assessment processes, data analyses, and the transfer of data to the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) Data Archive (NDA) for use by the research community. In an expected sample of approximately 2000 CHR individuals and 640 matched healthy controls, AMP SCZ will collect clinical, environmental, and cognitive data along with multimodal biomarkers, including neuroimaging, electrophysiology, fluid biospecimens, speech and facial expression samples, novel measures derived from digital health technologies including smartphone-based daily surveys, and passive sensing as well as actigraphy. The study will investigate a range of clinical outcomes over a 2-year period, including transition to psychosis, remission or persistence of CHR status, attenuated positive symptoms, persistent negative symptoms, mood and anxiety symptoms, and psychosocial functioning. The global reach of AMP SCZ and its harmonized innovative methods promise to catalyze the development of new treatments to address critical unmet clinical and public health needs in CHR individuals.

Development of the PSYCHS: Positive SYmptoms and Diagnostic Criteria for the CAARMS Harmonized with the SIPS

AIM

To harmonize two ascertainment and severity rating instruments commonly used for the clinical high risk syndrome for psychosis (CHR-P): the Structured Interview for Psychosis-risk Syndromes (SIPS) and the Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States (CAARMS).

METHODS

The initial workshop is described in the companion report from Addington et al. After the workshop, lead experts for each instrument continued harmonizing attenuated positive symptoms and criteria for psychosis and CHR-P through an intensive series of joint videoconferences.

RESULTS

Full harmonization was achieved for attenuated positive symptom ratings and psychosis criteria, and modest harmonization for CHR-P criteria. The semi-structured interview, named Positive SYmptoms and Diagnostic Criteria for the CAARMS Harmonized with the SIPS (PSYCHS), generates CHR-P criteria and severity scores for both CAARMS and SIPS.

CONCLUSIONS

Using the PSYCHS for CHR-P ascertainment, conversion determination, and attenuated positive symptom severity rating will help in comparing findings across studies and in meta-analyses.

Accelerated Cortical Thinning in Schizophrenia Is Associated With Rare and Common Predisposing Variation to Schizophrenia and Neurodevelopmental Disorders

BACKGROUND

Schizophrenia is a highly heritable disorder characterized by increased cortical thinning throughout the life span. Studies have reported a shared genetic basis between schizophrenia and cortical thickness. However, no genes whose expression is related to abnormal cortical thinning in schizophrenia have been identified.

METHODS

We conducted linear mixed models to estimate the rates of accelerated cortical thinning across 68 regions from the Desikan-Killiany atlas in individuals with schizophrenia compared with healthy control participants from a large longitudinal sample (ncases = 169 and ncontrols = 298, ages 16-70 years). We studied the correlation between gene expression data from the Allen Human Brain Atlas and accelerated thinning estimates across cortical regions. Finally, we explored the functional and genetic underpinnings of the genes that contribute most to accelerated thinning.

RESULTS

We found a global pattern of accelerated cortical thinning in individuals with schizophrenia compared with healthy control participants. Genes underexpressed in cortical regions that exhibit this accelerated thinning were downregulated in several psychiatric disorders and were enriched for both common and rare disrupting variation for schizophrenia and neurodevelopmental disorders. In contrast, none of these enrichments were observed for baseline cross-sectional cortical thickness differences.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that accelerated cortical thinning, rather than cortical thickness alone, serves as an informative phenotype for neurodevelopmental disruptions in schizophrenia. We highlight the genetic and transcriptomic correlates of this accelerated cortical thinning, emphasizing the need for future longitudinal studies to elucidate the role of genetic variation and the temporal-spatial dynamics of gene expression in brain development and aging in schizophrenia.

Developmental perspectives on the origins of psychotic disorders: The need for a transdiagnostic approach

Research on serious mental disorders, particularly psychosis, has revealed highly variable symptom profiles and developmental trajectories prior to illness-onset. As Dante Cicchetti pointed out decades before the term "transdiagnostic" was widely used, the pathways to psychopathology emerge in a system involving equifinality and multifinality. Like most other psychological disorders, psychosis is associated with multiple domains of risk factors, both genetic and environmental, and there are many transdiagnostic developmental pathways that can lead to psychotic syndromes. In this article, we discuss our current understanding of heterogeneity in the etiology of psychosis and its implications for approaches to conceptualizing etiology and research. We highlight the need for examining risk factors at multiple levels and to increase the emphasis on transdiagnostic developmental trajectories as a key variable associated with etiologic subtypes. This will be increasingly feasible now that large, longitudinal datasets are becoming available and researchers have access to more sophisticated analytic tools, such as machine learning, which can identify more homogenous subtypes with the ultimate goal of enhancing options for treatment and preventive intervention.

Using brain structural neuroimaging measures to predict psychosis onset for individuals at clinical high-risk

Machine learning approaches using structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI) can be informative for disease classification, although their ability to predict psychosis is largely unknown. We created a model with individuals at CHR who developed psychosis later (CHR-PS+) from healthy controls (HCs) that can differentiate each other. We also evaluated whether we could distinguish CHR-PS+ individuals from those who did not develop psychosis later (CHR-PS-) and those with uncertain follow-up status (CHR-UNK). T1-weighted structural brain MRI scans from 1165 individuals at CHR (CHR-PS+, n = 144; CHR-PS-, n = 793; and CHR-UNK, n = 228), and 1029 HCs, were obtained from 21 sites. We used ComBat to harmonize measures of subcortical volume, cortical thickness and surface area data and corrected for non-linear effects of age and sex using a general additive model. CHR-PS+ (n = 120) and HC (n = 799) data from 20 sites served as a training dataset, which we used to build a classifier. The remaining samples were used external validation datasets to evaluate classifier performance (test, independent confirmatory, and independent group [CHR-PS- and CHR-UNK] datasets). The accuracy of the classifier on the training and independent confirmatory datasets was 85% and 73% respectively. Regional cortical surface area measures-including those from the right superior frontal, right superior temporal, and bilateral insular cortices strongly contributed to classifying CHR-PS+ from HC. CHR-PS- and CHR-UNK individuals were more likely to be classified as HC compared to CHR-PS+ (classification rate to HC: CHR-PS+, 30%; CHR-PS-, 73%; CHR-UNK, 80%). We used multisite sMRI to train a classifier to predict psychosis onset in CHR individuals, and it showed promise predicting CHR-PS+ in an independent sample. The results suggest that when considering adolescent brain development, baseline MRI scans for CHR individuals may be helpful to identify their prognosis. Future prospective studies are required about whether the classifier could be actually helpful in the clinical settings.

The schizophrenia syndrome, circa 2024: What we know and how that informs its nature

With new data about different aspects of schizophrenia being continually generated, it becomes necessary to periodically revisit exactly what we know. Along with a need to review what we currently know about schizophrenia, there is an equal imperative to evaluate the construct itself. With these objectives, we undertook an iterative, multi-phase process involving fifty international experts in the field, with each step building on learnings from the prior one. This review assembles currently established findings about schizophrenia (construct, etiology, pathophysiology, clinical expression, treatment) and posits what they reveal about its nature. Schizophrenia is a heritable, complex, multi-dimensional syndrome with varying degrees of psychotic, negative, cognitive, mood, and motor manifestations. The illness exhibits a remitting and relapsing course, with varying degrees of recovery among affected individuals with most experiencing significant social and functional impairment. Genetic risk factors likely include thousands of common genetic variants that each have a small impact on an individual's risk and a plethora of rare gene variants that have a larger individual impact on risk. Their biological effects are concentrated in the brain and many of the same variants also increase the risk of other psychiatric disorders such as bipolar disorder, autism, and other neurodevelopmental conditions. Environmental risk factors include but are not limited to urban residence in childhood, migration, older paternal age at birth, cannabis use, childhood trauma, antenatal maternal infection, and perinatal hypoxia. Structural, functional, and neurochemical brain alterations implicate multiple regions and functional circuits. Dopamine D-2 receptor antagonists and partial agonists improve psychotic symptoms and reduce risk of relapse. Certain psychological and psychosocial interventions are beneficial. Early intervention can reduce treatment delay and improve outcomes. Schizophrenia is increasingly considered to be a heterogeneous syndrome and not a singular disease entity. There is no necessary or sufficient etiology, pathology, set of clinical features, or treatment that fully circumscribes this syndrome. A single, common pathophysiological pathway appears unlikely. The boundaries of schizophrenia remain fuzzy, suggesting the absence of a categorical fit and need to reconceptualize it as a broader, multi-dimensional and/or spectrum construct.

Improving prediction of psychosis in youth at clinical high-risk: pre-baseline symptom duration and cortical thinning as moderators of the NAPLS2 risk calculator

BACKGROUND

Clinical implementation of risk calculator models in the clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) population has been hindered by heterogeneous risk distributions across study cohorts which could be attributed to pre-ascertainment illness progression. To examine this, we tested whether the duration of attenuated psychotic symptom (APS) worsening prior to baseline moderated performance of the North American prodrome longitudinal study 2 (NAPLS2) risk calculator. We also examined whether rates of cortical thinning, another marker of illness progression, bolstered clinical prediction models.

METHODS

Participants from both the NAPLS2 and NAPLS3 samples were classified as either 'long' or 'short' symptom duration based on time since APS increase prior to baseline. The NAPLS2 risk calculator model was applied to each of these groups. In a subset of NAPLS3 participants who completed follow-up magnetic resonance imaging scans, change in cortical thickness was combined with the individual risk score to predict conversion to psychosis.

RESULTS

The risk calculator models achieved similar performance across the combined NAPLS2/NAPLS3 sample [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.69], the long duration group (AUC = 0.71), and the short duration group (AUC = 0.71). The shorter duration group was younger and had higher baseline APS than the longer duration group. The addition of cortical thinning improved the prediction of conversion significantly for the short duration group (AUC = 0.84), with a moderate improvement in prediction for the longer duration group (AUC = 0.78).

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that early illness progression differs among CHR-P patients, is detectable with both clinical and neuroimaging measures, and could play an essential role in the prediction of clinical outcomes.

Normative Modeling of Brain Morphometry in Clinical High Risk for Psychosis

Importance

The lack of robust neuroanatomical markers of psychosis risk has been traditionally attributed to heterogeneity. A complementary hypothesis is that variation in neuroanatomical measures in individuals at psychosis risk may be nested within the range observed in healthy individuals.

Objective

To quantify deviations from the normative range of neuroanatomical variation in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) and evaluate their overlap with healthy variation and their association with positive symptoms, cognition, and conversion to a psychotic disorder.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This case-control study used clinical-, IQ-, and neuroimaging software (FreeSurfer)-derived regional measures of cortical thickness (CT), cortical surface area (SA), and subcortical volume (SV) from 1340 individuals with CHR-P and 1237 healthy individuals pooled from 29 international sites participating in the Enhancing Neuroimaging Genetics Through Meta-analysis (ENIGMA) Clinical High Risk for Psychosis Working Group. Healthy individuals and individuals with CHR-P were matched on age and sex within each recruitment site. Data were analyzed between September 1, 2021, and November 30, 2022.

Main Outcomes and Measures

For each regional morphometric measure, deviation scores were computed as z scores indexing the degree of deviation from their normative means from a healthy reference population. Average deviation scores (ADS) were also calculated for regional CT, SA, and SV measures and globally across all measures. Regression analyses quantified the association of deviation scores with clinical severity and cognition, and 2-proportion z tests identified case-control differences in the proportion of individuals with infranormal (z < -1.96) or supranormal (z > 1.96) scores.

Results

Among 1340 individuals with CHR-P, 709 (52.91%) were male, and the mean (SD) age was 20.75 (4.74) years. Among 1237 healthy individuals, 684 (55.30%) were male, and the mean (SD) age was 22.32 (4.95) years. Individuals with CHR-P and healthy individuals overlapped in the distributions of the observed values, regional z scores, and all ADS values. For any given region, the proportion of individuals with CHR-P who had infranormal or supranormal values was low (up to 153 individuals [<11.42%]) and similar to that of healthy individuals (<115 individuals [<9.30%]). Individuals with CHR-P who converted to a psychotic disorder had a higher percentage of infranormal values in temporal regions compared with those who did not convert (7.01% vs 1.38%) and healthy individuals (5.10% vs 0.89%). In the CHR-P group, only the ADS SA was associated with positive symptoms (β = -0.08; 95% CI, -0.13 to -0.02; P = .02 for false discovery rate) and IQ (β = 0.09; 95% CI, 0.02-0.15; P = .02 for false discovery rate).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this case-control study, findings suggest that macroscale neuromorphometric measures may not provide an adequate explanation of psychosis risk.

Assessing evidence supporting cannabis harm reduction practices for adolescents at clinical high-risk for psychosis: a review and clinical implementation tool

Cannabis use is consistently associated with both increased incidence of frank psychotic disorders and acute exacerbations of psychotic symptoms in healthy individuals and people with psychosis spectrum disorders. Although there is uncertainty around causality, cannabis use may be one of a few modifiable risk factors for conversion to psychotic disorders in individuals with Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) syndromes, characterized by functionally impairing and distressing subthreshold psychotic symptoms. To date, few recommendations beyond abstinence to reduce adverse psychiatric events associated with cannabis use have been made. This narrative review synthesizes existing scientific literature on cannabis' acute psychotomimetic effects and epidemiological associations with psychotic disorders in both CHR-P and healthy individuals to bridge the gap between scientific knowledge and practical mental health intervention. There is compelling evidence for cannabis acutely exacerbating psychotic symptoms in CHR-P, but its impact on conversion to psychotic disorder is unclear. Current evidence supports a harm reduction approach in reducing frequency of acute psychotic-like experiences, though whether such interventions decrease CHR-P individuals' risk of conversion to psychotic disorder remains unknown. Specific recommendations include reducing frequency of use, lowering delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol content in favor of cannabidiol-only products, avoiding products with inconsistent potency like edibles, enhancing patient-provider communication about cannabis use and psychotic-like experiences, and utilizing a collaborative and individualized therapeutic approach. Despite uncertainty surrounding cannabis' causal association with psychotic disorders, cautious attempts to reduce acute psychosis risk may benefit CHR-P individuals uninterested in abstinence. Further research is needed to clarify practices associated with minimization of cannabis-related psychosis risk.

Relations of Lifetime Perceived Stress and Basal Cortisol With Hippocampal Volume Among Healthy Adolescents and Those at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: A Structural Equation Modeling Approach

BACKGROUND

Hippocampal volume (HV) is sensitive to environmental influences. Under normative conditions in humans, HV increases linearly into childhood and asymptotes in early adulthood. Studies of humans and nonhuman animals have provided evidence of inverse relationships between several measures of stress and HV.

METHODS

Using structural equation modeling, this study aimed to characterize the relationships of age, basal cortisol, biological sex, and lifetime perceived stress with bilateral HV in a sample of healthy adolescents and adolescents at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) (N = 571, 43% female; age range = 12-19.9 years). This sample included 469 individuals at CHR-P and 102 healthy comparison participants from the combined baseline cohorts of the second and third NAPLS (North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study).

RESULTS

A structural model that constrained the individual effects of basal cortisol and perceived stress to single path coefficients, and freely estimated the effects of age and biological sex in group models, optimized model fit and parsimony relative to other candidate models. Significant inverse relationships between basal cortisol and bilateral HV were observed in adolescents at CHR-P and healthy comparison participants. Significant sex differences in bilateral HV were also observed, with females demonstrating smaller HV than males in both groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Multigroup structural equation modeling revealed heterogeneity in the relationships of age and biological sex with basal cortisol, lifetime perceived stress, and bilateral HV in individuals at CHR-P and healthy comparison participants. Moreover, the findings support previous literature indicating that elevated basal cortisol is a nonspecific risk factor for reduced HV.

Network-Based Spreading of Gray Matter Changes Across Different Stages of Psychosis

Importance

Psychotic illness is associated with anatomically distributed gray matter reductions that can worsen with illness progression, but the mechanisms underlying the specific spatial patterning of these changes is unknown.

Objective

To test the hypothesis that brain network architecture constrains cross-sectional and longitudinal gray matter alterations across different stages of psychotic illness and to identify whether certain brain regions act as putative epicenters from which volume loss spreads.

Design, Settings, and Participants

This case-control study included 534 individuals from 4 cohorts, spanning early and late stages of psychotic illness. Early-stage cohorts included patients with antipsychotic-naive first-episode psychosis (n = 59) and a group of patients receiving medications within 3 years of psychosis onset (n = 121). Late-stage cohorts comprised 2 independent samples of people with established schizophrenia (n = 136). Each patient group had a corresponding matched control group (n = 218). A sample of healthy adults (n = 356) was used to derive representative structural and functional brain networks for modeling of network-based spreading processes. Longitudinal illness-related and antipsychotic-related gray matter changes over 3 and 12 months were examined using a triple-blind randomized placebo-control magnetic resonance imaging study of the antipsychotic-naive patients. All data were collected between April 29, 2008, and January 15, 2020, and analyses were performed between March 1, 2021, and January 14, 2023.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Coordinated deformation models were used to estimate the extent of gray matter volume (GMV) change in each of 332 parcellated areas by the volume changes observed in areas to which they were structurally or functionally coupled. To identify putative epicenters of volume loss, a network diffusion model was used to simulate the spread of pathology from different seed regions. Correlations between estimated and empirical spatial patterns of GMV alterations were used to quantify model performance.

Results

Of 534 included individuals, 354 (66.3%) were men, and the mean (SD) age was 28.4 (7.4) years. In both early and late stages of illness, spatial patterns of cross-sectional volume differences between patients and controls were more accurately estimated by coordinated deformation models constrained by structural, rather than functional, network architecture (r range, >0.46 to <0.57; P < .01). The same model also robustly estimated longitudinal volume changes related to illness (r ≥ 0.52; P < .001) and antipsychotic exposure (r ≥ 0.50; P < .004). Network diffusion modeling consistently identified, across all 4 data sets, the anterior hippocampus as a putative epicenter of pathological spread in psychosis. Epicenters of longitudinal GMV loss were apparent in posterior cortex early in the illness and shifted to the prefrontal cortex with illness progression.

Conclusion and Relevance

These findings highlight a central role for white matter fibers as conduits for the spread of pathology across different stages of psychotic illness, mirroring findings reported in neurodegenerative conditions. The structural connectome thus represents a fundamental constraint on brain changes in psychosis, regardless of whether these changes are caused by illness or medication. Moreover, the anterior hippocampus represents a putative epicenter of early brain pathology from which dysfunction may spread to affect connected areas.

Recent Updates on Predicting Conversion in Youth at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review highlights recent advances in the prediction and treatment of psychotic conversion. Over the past 25 years, research into the prodromal phase of psychotic illness has expanded with the promise of early identification of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis who are likely to convert to psychosis.

RECENT FINDINGS

Meta-analyses highlight conversion rates between 20 and 30% within 2-3 years using existing clinical criteria while research into more specific risk factors, biomarkers, and refinement of psychosis risk calculators has exploded, improving our ability to predict psychotic conversion with greater accuracy. Recent studies highlight risk factors and biomarkers likely to contribute to earlier identification and provide insight into neurodevelopmental abnormalities, CHR subtypes, and interventions that can target specific risk profiles linked to neural mechanisms. Ongoing initiatives that assess longer-term (> 5-10 years) outcome of CHR participants can provide valuable information about predictors of later conversion and diagnostic outcomes while large-scale international biomarker studies provide hope for precision intervention that will alter the course of early psychosis globally.

Dynamic Prediction of Outcomes for Youth at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: A Joint Modeling Approach

Importance

Leveraging the dynamic nature of clinical variables in the clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) population has the potential to significantly improve the performance of outcome prediction models.

Objective

To improve performance of prediction models and elucidate dynamic clinical profiles using joint modeling to predict conversion to psychosis and symptom remission.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Data were collected as part of the third wave of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS 3), which is a 9-site prospective longitudinal study. Participants were individuals aged 12 to 30 years who met criteria for a psychosis-risk syndrome. Clinical, neurocognitive, and demographic variables were collected at baseline and at multiple follow-up visits, beginning at 2 months and up to 24 months. An initial feature selection process identified longitudinal clinical variables that showed differential change for each outcome group across 2 months. With these variables, a joint modeling framework was used to estimate the likelihood of eventual outcomes. Models were developed and tested in a 10-fold cross-validation framework. Clinical data were collected between February 2015 and November 2018, and data were analyzed from February 2022 to December 2023.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Prediction models were built to predict conversion to psychosis and symptom remission. Participants met criteria for conversion if their positive symptoms reached the fully psychotic range and for symptom remission if they were subprodromal on the Scale of Psychosis-Risk Symptoms for a duration of 6 months or more.

Results

Of 488 included NAPLS 3 participants, 232 (47.5%) were female, and the mean (SD) age was 18.2 (3.4) years. Joint models achieved a high level of accuracy in predicting conversion (balanced accuracy [BAC], 0.91) and remission (BAC, 0.99) compared with baseline models (conversion: BAC, 0.65; remission: BAC, 0.60). Clinical variables that showed differential change between outcome groups across a 2-month span, including measures of symptom severity and aspects of functioning, were also identified. Further, intra-individual risks for each outcome were more negatively correlated when using joint models (r = -0.92; P < .001) compared with baseline models (r = -0.50; P < .001).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, joint models significantly outperformed baseline models in predicting both conversion and remission, demonstrating that monitoring short-term clinical change may help to parse heterogeneous dynamic clinical trajectories in a CHR-P population. These findings could inform additional study of targeted treatment selection and could move the field closer to clinical implementation of prediction models.

Age-related change in cortical thickness in adolescents at clinical high risk for psychosis: a longitudinal study

Progression to psychosis has been associated with increased cortical thinning in the frontal, temporal and parietal lobes in individuals at clinical high risk for the disorder (CHR-P). The timing and spatial extent of these changes are thought to be influenced by age. However, most evidence so far stems from adult samples. Longitudinal studies are essential to understanding the neuroanatomical changes associated to transition to psychosis during adolescence, and their relationship with age. We conducted a longitudinal, multisite study including adolescents at CHR-P and healthy controls (HC), aged 10-17 years. Structural images were acquired at baseline and at 18-month follow-up. Images were processed with the longitudinal pipeline in FreeSurfer. We used a longitudinal two-stage model to compute the regional cortical thickness (CT) change, and analyze between-group differences controlling for age, sex and scan, and corrected for multiple comparisons. Linear regression was used to study the effect of age at baseline. A total of 103 individuals (49 CHR-P and 54 HC) were included in the analysis. During follow-up, the 13 CHR-P participants who transitioned to psychosis exhibited greater CT decrease over time in the right parietal cortex compared to those who did not transition to psychosis and to HC. Age at baseline correlated with longitudinal changes in CT, with younger individuals showing greater cortical thinning in this region. The emergence of psychosis during early adolescence may have an impact on typical neuromaturational processes. This study provides new insights on the cortical changes taking place prior to illness onset.

Development of the PSYCHS: Positive SYmptoms and Diagnostic Criteria for the CAARMS Harmonized with the SIPS

Aim

To harmonize two ascertainment and severity rating instruments commonly used for the clinical high risk syndrome for psychosis (CHR-P): the Structured Interview for Psychosis-risk Syndromes (SIPS) and the Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States (CAARMS).

Methods

The initial workshop is described in the companion report from Addington et al. After the workshop, lead experts for each instrument continued harmonizing attenuated positive symptoms and criteria for psychosis and CHR-P through an intensive series of joint videoconferences.

Results

Full harmonization was achieved for attenuated positive symptom ratings and psychosis criteria, and partial harmonization for CHR-P criteria. The semi-structured interview, named P ositive SY mptoms and Diagnostic Criteria for the C AARMS H armonized with the S IPS (PSYCHS), generates CHR-P criteria and severity scores for both CAARMS and SIPS.

Conclusion

Using the PSYCHS for CHR-P ascertainment, conversion determination, and attenuated positive symptom severity rating will help in comparing findings across studies and in meta-analyses.

Editorial: New Clues Into Cortical Changes That Converge on Psychosis

Adults living with schizophrenia have prominent and widespread alterations in brain structure and function, but until recently little was known about the developmental timing and course of such changes. Prospective studies of individuals at elevated risk for developing psychosis, termed clinical high-risk (CHR) or psychosis risk syndrome patients, can address these questions, thus providing clues into neurobiological mechanisms that occur prior to illness onset. In this issue, Fortea et al.¹ present the results of a prospective longitudinal brain imaging investigation of 107 adolescents at CHR for developing a psychotic disorder (23% of whom developed psychosis over the follow-up period) and 102 typically developing controls. Participants were scanned at baseline and at 18-month follow-up or at the time of conversion to psychosis. Using linear mixed-effects models to measure cortical surface area over time, the authors found that youth who developed a psychotic disorder during the follow-up period experienced greater loss of cortical surface area in bilateral parietal and right frontal regions compared to CHR youth who did not develop psychosis, and in left parietal and occipital regions compared to healthy controls. Findings were not accounted for by antipsychotic medication use, cannabis use, or general intelligence. Thus, these observations suggest that emerging psychosis may have an impact on typical neuromaturational changes that occur during adolescence.

Normative modeling of brain morphometry in Clinical High-Risk for Psychosis

Importance

The lack of robust neuroanatomical markers of psychosis risk has been traditionally attributed to heterogeneity. A complementary hypothesis is that variation in neuroanatomical measures in the majority of individuals at psychosis risk may be nested within the range observed in healthy individuals.

Objective

To quantify deviations from the normative range of neuroanatomical variation in individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) and evaluate their overlap with healthy variation and their association with positive symptoms, cognition, and conversion to a psychotic disorder.

Design Setting and Participants

Clinical, IQ and FreeSurfer-derived regional measures of cortical thickness (CT), cortical surface area (SA), and subcortical volume (SV) from 1,340 CHR-P individuals [47.09% female; mean age: 20.75 (4.74) years] and 1,237 healthy individuals [44.70% female; mean age: 22.32 (4.95) years] from 29 international sites participating in the ENIGMA Clinical High Risk for Psychosis Working Group.

Main Outcomes and Measures

For each regional morphometric measure, z-scores were computed that index the degree of deviation from the normative means of that measure in a healthy reference population (N=37,407). Average deviation scores (ADS) for CT, SA, SV, and globally across all measures (G) were generated by averaging the respective regional z-scores. Regression analyses were used to quantify the association of deviation scores with clinical severity and cognition and two-proportion z-tests to identify case-control differences in the proportion of individuals with infranormal (z<-1.96) or supranormal (z>1.96) scores.

Results

CHR-P and healthy individuals overlapped in the distributions of the observed values, regional z-scores, and all ADS vales. The proportion of CHR-P individuals with infranormal or supranormal values in any metric was low (<12%) and similar to that of healthy individuals. CHR-P individuals who converted to psychosis compared to those who did not convert had a higher percentage of infranormal values in temporal regions (5-7% vs 0.9-1.4%). In the CHR-P group, only the ADSSA showed significant but weak associations (|β|<0.09; PFDR<0.05) with positive symptoms and IQ.

Conclusions and Relevance

The study findings challenge the usefulness of macroscale neuromorphometric measures as diagnostic biomarkers of psychosis risk and suggest that such measures do not provide an adequate explanation for psychosis risk.