Clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in South Africa

Economic Evaluation of COVID-19 Immunization Strategies: A Systematic Review and Narrative Synthesis

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to systematically assess global economic evaluation studies on COVID-19 vaccination, offer valuable insights for future economic evaluations, and assist policymakers in making evidence-based decisions regarding the implementation of COVID-19 vaccination.

METHODS

Searches were performed from January 2020 to September 2023 across seven English databases (PubMed, Web of Science, MEDLINE, EBSCO, KCL-Korean Journal Dataset, SciELO Citation Index, and Derwent Innovations Index) and three Chinese databases (Wanfang Data, China Science and Technology Journal, and CNKI). Rigorous inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied. Data were extracted from eligible studies using a standardized data collection form, with the reporting quality of these studies assessed using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards 2022 (CHEERS 2022).

RESULTS

Of the 40 studies included in the final review, the overall reporting quality was good, evidenced by a mean score of 22.6 (ranging from 10.5 to 28). Given the significant heterogeneity in fundamental aspects among the studies reviewed, a narrative synthesis was conducted. Most of these studies adopted a health system or societal perspective. They predominantly utilized a composite model, merging dynamic and static methods, within short to medium-term time horizons to simulate various vaccination strategies. The research strategies varied among studies, investigating different doses, dosages, brands, mechanisms, efficacies, vaccination coverage rates, deployment speeds, and priority target groups. Three pivotal parameters notably influenced the evaluation results: the vaccine's effectiveness, its cost, and the basic reproductive number (R0). Despite variations in model structures, baseline parameters, and assumptions utilized, all studies identified a general trend that COVID-19 vaccination is cost-effective compared to no vaccination or intervention.

CONCLUSIONS

The current review confirmed that COVID-19 vaccination is a cost-effective alternative in preventing and controlling COVID-19. In addition, it highlights the profound impact of variables such as dose size, target population, vaccine efficacy, speed of vaccination, and diversity of vaccine brands and mechanisms on cost effectiveness, and also proposes practical and effective strategies for improving COVID-19 vaccination campaigns from the perspective of economic evaluation.

COVID-19 vaccination strategies in Africa: A scoping review of the use of mathematical models to inform policy

OBJECTIVE

Mathematical models are vital tools to understand transmission dynamics and assess the impact of interventions to mitigate COVID-19. However, historically, their use in Africa has been limited. In this scoping review, we assess how mathematical models were used to study COVID-19 vaccination to potentially inform pandemic planning and response in Africa.

METHODS

We searched six electronic databases: MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, Global Health, MathSciNet and Africa-Wide NiPAD, using keywords to identify articles focused on the use of mathematical modelling studies of COVID-19 vaccination in Africa that were published as of October 2022. We extracted the details on the country, author affiliation, characteristics of models, policy intent and heterogeneity factors. We assessed quality using 21-point scale criteria on model characteristics and content of the studies.

RESULTS

The literature search yielded 462 articles, of which 32 were included based on the eligibility criteria. Nineteen (59%) studies had a first author affiliated with an African country. Of the 32 included studies, 30 (94%) were compartmental models. By country, most studies were about or included South Africa (n = 12, 37%), followed by Morocco (n = 6, 19%) and Ethiopia (n = 5, 16%). Most studies (n = 19, 59%) assessed the impact of increasing vaccination coverage on COVID-19 burden. Half (n = 16, 50%) had policy intent: prioritising or selecting interventions, pandemic planning and response, vaccine distribution and optimisation strategies and understanding transmission dynamics of COVID-19. Fourteen studies (44%) were of medium quality and eight (25%) were of high quality.

CONCLUSIONS

While decision-makers could draw vital insights from the evidence generated from mathematical modelling to inform policy, we found that there was limited use of such models exploring vaccination impacts for COVID-19 in Africa. The disparity can be addressed by scaling up mathematical modelling training, increasing collaborative opportunities between modellers and policymakers, and increasing access to funding.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of South Africa's COVID-19 vaccination programme

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 vaccines were rolled out in South Africa beginning in February 2021. In this study we retrospectively assessed the cost-effectiveness of the vaccination programme in its first two years of implementation.

METHOD

We modelled the costs, expressed in 2021 US$, and health outcomes of the COVID-19 vaccination programme compared to a no vaccination programme scenario. The study was conducted from a public payer's perspective over two time-horizons - nine months (February to November 2021) and twenty-four months (February 2021 to January 2023). Health outcomes were estimated from a disease transmission model parameterised with data on COVID-19-related hospitalisations and deaths and were converted to disability adjusted life years (DALYs). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (DSA and PSA) were conducted to assess parameter uncertainty.

RESULTS

Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was estimated at US$1600 per DALY averted during the first study time horizon. The corresponding ICER for the second study period was estimated at US$1300 per DALY averted. When 85% of all excess deaths during these periods were included in the analysis, ICERs in the first and second study periods were estimated at US$1070 and US$660 per DALY averted, respectively. In the PSA, almost 100% of simulations fell below the estimated opportunity cost-based cost-effectiveness threshold for South Africa (US$2300 DALYs averted). COVID-19 vaccination programme cost per dose had the greatest impact on the ICERs.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that South Africa's COVID-19 vaccination programme represented good value for money in the first two years of rollout.

Revealing Decision-Making Strategies of Americans in Taking COVID-19 Vaccination

Efficient coverage for newly developed vaccines requires knowing which groups of individuals will accept the vaccine immediately and which will take longer to accept or never accept. Of those who may eventually accept the vaccine, there are two main types: success-based learners, basing their decisions on others' satisfaction, and myopic rationalists, attending to their own immediate perceived benefit. We used COVID-19 vaccination data to fit a mechanistic model capturing the distinct effects of the two types on the vaccination progress. We proved the identifiability of the population proportions of each type and estimated that 47 % of Americans behaved as myopic rationalists with a high variation across the jurisdictions, from 31 % in Mississippi to 76 % in Vermont. The proportion was correlated with the vaccination coverage, proportion of votes in favor of Democrats in 2020 presidential election, and education score.

Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 contributed to reducing the prevalence of depression in Chinese adults - A cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination has been reported to improve mental health. However, few relevant data were collected in China. The study aimed to evaluate the impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination on the risk of depression in China and risk factors contributing to depression.

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional study carried out from May 2020 to July 2021. Participants were widely recruited in China to participate in the survey using an online questionnaire including Patient Health Questionnaire-9, Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7, Athens Insomnia Scale-8.After exclusion of 105 ineligible questionnaires, 9452 participants were included in our final analysis. Chi-square test and Multivariable logistic regression analysis were used to analyze data.

RESULTS

Of the 9452 participants, 7207 were vaccinated. Our results showed that the prevalence of depression decreased significantly after vaccination (56.1 % for unvaccinated participants vs. 19.7 % for vaccinated participants). The prevalence of mild, moderate and severe depression was also significantly lower in the vaccinated participants than in the unvaccinated participants (14.8 % vs 29.0 %, 2.8 % vs 13.3 %, 2.0 % vs 13.8 %, respectively). Besides, among vaccinated participants, male and aged participants had a lower chance of developing depression (AOR = 1.34; AOR = 0.63; AOR = 0.5, respectively). In addition, although with vaccination, participants with anxiety and insomnia were more likely to suffer from depression (AOR = 29.2; AOR = 11.89).

LIMITATIONS

The study was a cross-sectional survey. The numbers of participants differed much in the two groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study confirmed that SARS-CoV-2 vaccination contributed to reducing the prevalence of depression in Chinese adults. Moreover, vaccinated men and older adult participants had less prevalence of depression.

Optimal resource allocation model for COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

A lack of health resources is a common problem after the outbreak of infectious diseases, and resource optimization is an important means to solve the lack of prevention and control capacity caused by resource constraints. This study systematically evaluated the similarities and differences in the application of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) resource allocation models and analyzed the effects of different optimal resource allocations on epidemic control.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted of CNKI, WanFang, VIP, CBD, PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus and Embase for articles published from January 1, 2019, through November 23, 2023. Two reviewers independently evaluated the quality of the included studies, extracted and cross-checked the data. Moreover, publication bias and sensitivity analysis were evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 22 articles were included for systematic review; in the application of optimal allocation models, 59.09% of the studies used propagation dynamics models to simulate the allocation of various resources, and some scholars also used mathematical optimization functions (36.36%) and machine learning algorithms (31.82%) to solve the problem of resource allocation; the results of the systematic review show that differential equation modeling was more considered when testing resources optimization, the optimization function or machine learning algorithm were mostly used to optimize the bed resources; the meta-analysis results showed that the epidemic trend was obviously effectively controlled through the optimal allocation of resources, and the average control efficiency was 0.38(95%CI 0.25-0.51); Subgroup analysis revealed that the average control efficiency from high to low was health specialists 0.48(95%CI 0.37-0.59), vaccines 0.47(95%CI 0.11-0.82), testing 0.38(95%CI 0.19-0.57), personal protective equipment (PPE) 0.38(95%CI 0.06-0.70), beds 0.34(95%CI 0.14-0.53), medicines and equipment for treatment 0.32(95%CI 0.12-0.51); Funnel plots and Egger's test showed no publication bias, and sensitivity analysis suggested robust results.

CONCLUSION

When the data are insufficient and the simulation time is short, the researchers mostly use the constructor for research; When the data are relatively sufficient and the simulation time is long, researchers choose differential equations or machine learning algorithms for research. In addition, our study showed that control efficiency is an important indicator to evaluate the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control. Through the optimization of medical staff and vaccine allocation, greater prevention and control effects can be achieved.

COVID-19 and EQ-5D-5L health state valuation

BACKGROUND

We investigate whether and how general population health state values were influenced by the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. Changes could have important implications, as general population values are used in health resource allocation.

DATA

In Spring 2020, participants in a UK general population survey rated 2 EQ-5D-5L states, 11111 and 55555, as well as dead, using a visual analogue scale (VAS) from 100 = best imaginable health to 0 = worst imaginable health. Participants answered questions about their pandemic experiences, including COVID-19's effect on their health and quality of life, and their subjective risk/worry about infection.

ANALYSIS

VAS ratings for 55555 were transformed to the full health = 1, dead = 0 scale. Tobit models were used to analyse VAS responses, as well as multinomial propensity score matching (MNPS) to create samples balanced according to participant characteristics.

RESULTS

Of 3021 respondents, 2599 were used for analysis. There were statistically significant, but complex associations between experiences of COVID-19 and VAS ratings. For example, in the MNPS analysis, greater subjective risk of infection implied higher VAS ratings for dead, yet worry about infection implied lower ratings. In the Tobit analysis, people whose health was affected by COVID-19 rated 55555 higher, whether the effect on health was positive or negative.

CONCLUSION

The results complement previous findings that the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic may have impacted EQ-5D-5L health state valuation, and different aspects of the pandemic had different effects.

Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

The interaction between modelers and policymakers is becoming more common due to the increase in computing speed seen in recent decades. The recent pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus was no exception. Thus, this study aims to identify and assess epidemiological mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 applied to real-world data, including immunization for coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19).

METHODOLOGY

PubMed, JSTOR, medRxiv, LILACS, EconLit, and other databases were searched for studies employing epidemiological mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 applied to real-world data. We summarized the information qualitatively, and each article included was assessed for bias risk using the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) and PROBAST checklist tool. The PROSPERO registration number is CRD42022344542.

FINDINGS

In total, 5646 articles were retrieved, of which 411 were included. Most of the information was published in 2021. The countries with the highest number of studies were the United States, Canada, China, and the United Kingdom; no studies were found in low-income countries. The SEIR model (susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered) was the most frequently used approach, followed by agent-based modeling. Moreover, the most commonly used software were R, Matlab, and Python, with the most recurring health outcomes being death and recovery. According to the JBI assessment, 61.4% of articles were considered to have a low risk of bias.

INTERPRETATION

The utilization of mathematical models increased following the onset of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Stakeholders have begun to incorporate these analytical tools more extensively into public policy, enabling the construction of various scenarios for public health. This contribution adds value to informed decision-making. Therefore, understanding their advancements, strengths, and limitations is essential.

Optimal vaccination strategies for a heterogeneous population using multiple objectives: The case of L1- and L2-formulations

The choice of the objective functional in optimization problems coming from biomedical and epidemiological applications plays a key role in optimal control outcomes. In this study, we investigate the role of the objective functional on the structure of the optimal control solution for an epidemic model for sexually transmitted infections that includes a core group with higher sexual activity levels than the rest of the population. An optimal control problem is formulated to find a targeted vaccination program able to control the spread of the infection with minimum vaccine deployment. Both L1- and L2-objectives are considered as an attempt to explore the trade-offs between control dynamics and the functional form characterizing optimality. The results show that the optimal vaccination policies for both the L1- and the L2-formulation share one important qualitative property, that is, immunization of the core group should be prioritized by policymakers to achieve a fast reduction of the epidemic. However, quantitative aspects of this result can be significantly affected depending on the choice of the control weights between formulations. Overall, the results suggest that with appropriate weight constants, the optimal control outcomes are reasonably robust with respect to the L1- or L2-formulation. This is particularly true when the monetary cost of the control policy is substantially lower than the cost associated with the disease burden. Under these conditions, even if the L1-formulation is more realistic from a modeling perspective, the L2-formulation can be used as an approximation and yield qualitatively comparable outcomes.

Lessons learned from COVID-19 vaccination implementation: How psychological antecedents of vaccinations mediate the relationship between vaccine literacy and vaccine hesitancy

BACKGROUND

Enhancing the public's vaccine literacy is critical for curbing vaccine hesitancy and enhancing society's pandemic preparedness, particularly in an era of infodemic. Evidence on vaccine literacy as an influencing factor of hesitancy is scarce. Lessons could be learned from COVID-19 vaccination implementation. Taking the COVID-19 vaccines as an example, the current study aimed to examine the relationship between vaccine literacy and hesitancy and the mediating role of psychological antecedents of vaccination on the relationship.

METHODS

A baseline online questionnaire survey among the general public in China based on quota sampling was conducted in April 2021 to measure participants' vaccine literacy, psychological antecedents of vaccination, COVID-19 vaccination status, and vaccine hesitancy. A follow-up online survey tracked the updated COVID-19 vaccination status among those who hadn't taken COVID-19 vaccines at the baseline survey. Structural equation modeling has been applied to examine the direct and indirect effect of vaccine literacy on vaccine hesitancy. Time-to-event analysis was used to explore the effect of vaccine hesitancy on vaccination behavior.

RESULTS

Lower vaccine hesitancy was associated with higher vaccine literacy. The "3Cs" psychological antecedents were important mediators between vaccine literacy and vaccine hesitancy. The pathway between critical/interactive vaccine literacy and vaccine hesitancy through the "3Cs" psychological antecedents played a more important role. Time-to-event analysis showed participants with a higher vaccine hesitancy were prone to have a longer delay in vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

Improving the public's ability to obtain and evaluate vaccination information can fix the public's psychological determinants of vaccination, reducing vaccine hesitancy and promoting vaccination. Governments need to put more effort into guiding and regulating the media to disseminate evidence-based information, rectifying misinformation, and improving the public's vaccine literacy through education, especially the public's capability to critically discern mixed information.

Enablers and barriers to COVID-19 vaccine uptake in an urban slum in Lagos, Nigeria: informing vaccine engagement strategies for the marginalized

BACKGROUND

Vaccination against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a cost-effective mitigation strategy against the pandemic. As the COVID-19 vaccine becomes more available, low uptake is now a global threat and understanding the underpinnings in local contexts is a priority for intervention development. We aimed to evaluate behavioural determinants of COVID-19 vaccine acceptance that could inform engagement strategies to improve vaccine uptake in Makoko, an urban slum in Lagos, Nigeria.

METHODS

A population-based case-control study utilized the barrier analysis (BA) approach to evaluate the beliefs and behaviours of 45 'doers' and 45 'non-doers'. The standardized BA tabulation sheet was used to assess differences in the proportions between the two groups to identify significant factors that could be addressed through a behaviour change strategy.

RESULTS

Perceived social norms (family, friend, healthcare workers) that approve the vaccine and expected vaccine protection against diseases among doers were determinants of behaviour. Perceived poor accessibility, safety concerns, lack of trust, low vaccine efficacy and low susceptibility to the infection were the most important determinants of behaviour among non-doers.

CONCLUSIONS

Measures to improve COVID-19 vaccine acceptance in Makoko should include improvement in accessibility and exposing myths and misinformation through clear, concise and evidence-based community education delivered by trusted persons such as healthcare workers and religious leaders.

Advanced subunit vaccine delivery technologies: From vaccine cascade obstacles to design strategies

Designing and manufacturing safe and effective vaccines is a crucial challenge for human health worldwide. Research on adjuvant-based subunit vaccines is increasingly being explored to meet clinical needs. Nevertheless, the adaptive immune responses of subunit vaccines are still unfavorable, which may partially be attributed to the immune cascade obstacles and unsatisfactory vaccine design. An extended understanding of the crosstalk between vaccine delivery strategies and immunological mechanisms could provide scientific insight to optimize antigen delivery and improve vaccination efficacy. In this review, we summarized the advanced subunit vaccine delivery technologies from the perspective of vaccine cascade obstacles after administration. The engineered subunit vaccines with lymph node and specific cell targeting ability, antigen cross-presentation, T cell activation properties, and tailorable antigen release patterns may achieve effective immune protection with high precision, efficiency, and stability. We hope this review can provide rational design principles and inspire the exploitation of future subunit vaccines.

The pattern from the first three rounds of vaccination: declining vaccination rates

Introduction

Vaccination rates for the COVID-19 vaccine have recently been stagnant worldwide. We aim to analyze the potential patterns of vaccination development from the first three doses to reveal the possible trends of the next round of vaccination and further explore the factors influencing vaccination in the selected populations.

Methods

On July 2022, a stratified multistage random sampling method in the survey was conducted to select 6,781 people from 4 provinces China, who were above the age of 18 years. Participants were divided into two groups based on whether they had a chronic disease. The data were run through Cochran-Armitage trend test and multivariable regression analyses.

Results

A total of 957 participants with chronic disease and 5,454 participants without chronic disease were included in this survey. Vaccination rates for the first, second and booster doses in chronic disease population were93.70% (95% CI: 92.19-95.27%), 91.12% (95%CI: 94.43-95.59%), and 83.18% (95%CI: 80.80-85.55%) respectively. By contrast, the first, second and booster vaccination rates for the general population were 98.02% (95% CI: 97.65-98.39%), 95.01% (95% CI: 94.43-95.59%) and 85.06% (95% CI: 84.11-86.00%) respectively. The widening gap in vaccination rates was observed as the number of vaccinations increases. Higher self-efficacy was a significant factor in promoting vaccination, which has been observed in all doses of vaccines. Higher education level, middle level physical activity and higher public prevention measures play a positive role in vaccination among the general population, while alcohol consumption acts as a significant positive factor in the chronic disease population (p < 0.05).

Conclusion

As the number of vaccinations increases, the trend of decreasing vaccination rate is becoming more pronounced. In future regular vaccinations, we may face low vaccination rates as the increasing number of infections and the fatigue associated with the prolonged outbreak hamper vaccination. Measures need to be found to counter this downward trend such as improving the self-efficacy of the population.

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and social contact patterns in Pakistan: results from a national cross-sectional survey

BACKGROUND

Vaccination is a key tool against COVID-19. However, in many settings it is not clear how acceptable COVID-19 vaccination is among the general population, or how hesitancy correlates with risk of disease acquisition. In this study we conducted a nationally representative survey in Pakistan to measure vaccination perceptions and social contacts in the context of COVID-19 control measures and vaccination programmes.

METHODS

We conducted a vaccine perception and social contact survey with 3,658 respondents across five provinces in Pakistan, between 31 May and 29 June 2021. Respondents were asked a series of vaccine perceptions questions, to report all direct physical and non-physical contacts made the previous day, and a number of other questions regarding the social and economic impact of COVID-19 and control measures. We examined variation in perceptions and contact patterns by geographic and demographic factors. We describe knowledge, experiences and perceived risks of COVID-19. We explored variation in contact patterns by individual characteristics and vaccine hesitancy, and compared to patterns from non-pandemic periods.

RESULTS

Self-reported adherence to self-isolation guidelines was poor, and 51% of respondents did not know where to access a COVID-19 test. Although 48.1% of participants agreed that they would get a vaccine if offered, vaccine hesitancy was higher than in previous surveys, and greatest in Sindh and Baluchistan provinces and among respondents of lower socioeconomic status. Participants reported a median of 5 contacts the previous day (IQR: 3-5, mean 14.0, 95%CI: 13.2, 14.9). There were no substantial differences in the number of contacts reported by individual characteristics, but contacts varied substantially among respondents reporting more or less vaccine hesitancy. Contacts were highly assortative, particularly outside the household where 97% of men's contacts were with other men. We estimate that social contacts were 9% lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the perceived risk of COVID-19 in Pakistan is low in the general population, around half of participants in this survey indicated they would get vaccinated if offered. Vaccine impact studies which do not account for correlation between social contacts and vaccine hesitancy may incorrectly estimate the impact of vaccines, for example, if unvaccinated people have more contacts.

Cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination: A systematic review

OBJECTIVE

The COVID-19 vaccination strategy has been widely used to protect population health worldwide. This study aims to summarize the cost-effectiveness evidence of economic evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies to provide evidence supporting the usage of COVID-19 vaccination, especially where the supply of COVID-19 vaccine is limited.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was performed by searching both English and Chinese databases, including PubMed, Embase, Science Direct, Web of Science, Medline, Scopus, and CNKI. Articles published from January 1, 2020 to August 1, 2022 (PROSPERO registration number: CRD42022355442).

RESULTS

Of the 1035 papers identified, a total of 28 English studies that met the preset criteria were included. COVID-19 vaccination and booster vaccination were cost-effective or cost-saving regardless of the vaccine type; vaccine efficacy, vaccine price, vaccine supply or prioritization, and vaccination pace were the influential factors of cost-effectiveness among different population groups. When supply is adequate, mass vaccination should be encouraged, while when supply is inadequate, prioritizing the high risk and the elderly is more cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 vaccination strategies are economically favorable in a wide range of countries and population groups, and further research on suitable strategies for booster COVID-19 vaccination is needed.

Dynamic zero-COVID strategy in controlling COVID-19 in Shanghai, China: A cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

The sustainability and generalizability of China's dynamic zero-COVID strategy on eliminating SARS-CoV-2 transmission has casted doubt globally, mainly because it has exacted high social and economic cost. This study aimed to estimate the disease burden during the first wave of Omicron in China and compared the cost-effectiveness of implementing a Real-world strategy (adjusted dynamic zero-COVID strategy) with two simulated strategies (routine and stricter dynamic zero-COVID strategy) to inform appropriate strategies for COVID-19 pandemic control.

METHODS

A dynamic state-transition simulation model was developed to compare the health and cost outcomes between different dynamic zero-COVID strategies. Omicron-related healthcare costs were estimated from the societal perspective. Epidemiological parameter values were derived from data of real-world or generated by model calibration; costs and effectiveness parameter values were informed either by local data or published literature. The primary outcomes were total social cost, disability adjusted life-years (DALYs) and net monetary benefit (NMB). Deterministic sensitivity analyses (DSA) and scenario analyses were performed to assess the model robustness.

RESULTS

The first wave of Omicron in Shanghai resulted in 47,646 DALYs lost and 415 billion RMB losses. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of 173,630 RMB (the GDP per capita of Shanghai in 2021) per DALY saved, the Real-world strategy was considered as the most cost-effective strategy due to its highest NMB (-407 billion). Results from DSA confirmed the robustness of our findings.

CONCLUSION

Our finding supported the Real-world strategy taken by the Shanghai Municipal Government between March 1 and May 21, 2022 to control the first wave of Omicron outbreak. Moreover, our results indicated that whether the Stricter dynamic zero-COVID strategy is worth implementing at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak mainly depended on the infection rate of COVID-19 among primary contacts. Our analysis provides important evidence to inform policy makers to make appropriate decisions regarding COVID-19 pandemic management.

Vaccine hesitancy in patients with COVID-19 who have back pain

OBJECTIVES

Musculoskeletal pain is among the most common symptoms in patients diagnosed with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and it has placed a significant burden on health worldwide during the pandemic. This study explored vaccine hesitancy and associated factors in patients with positive COVID-19 polymerase chain reaction test results who were hospitalized and had back pain.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted among 170 hospitalized COVID-19 patients over 18 years of age. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics with IBM SPSS ver. 25.0.

RESULTS

COVID-19 patients who were married considered COVID-19 vaccinations riskier than unmarried COVID-19 patients. Patients who had not been vaccinated expressed higher levels of distrust towards COVID-19 vaccines than patients who had been vaccinated. Participants had relatively little hesitation toward the Sinovac vaccine. High vaccine confidence was found in all participants regardless of vaccination status. Those who had not received the COVID-19 vaccine reported higher risk perceptions than those who had received at least 1 dose of any COVID-19 vaccine.

CONCLUSION

Measurements of the hesitancy of vaccinated and non-vaccinated patients or members of society towards vaccines can be an important parameter for health authorities to find solutions.

The societal value of SARS-CoV-2 booster vaccination in Indonesia

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the expected socio-economic value of booster vaccination in terms of averted deaths and averted closures of businesses and schools using simulation modelling.

METHODS

The value of booster vaccination in Indonesia is estimated by comparing simulated societal costs under a twelve-month, 187-million-dose Moderna booster vaccination campaign to costs without boosters. The costs of an epidemic and its mitigation consist of lost lives, economic closures and lost education; cost-minimising non-pharmaceutical mitigation is chosen for each scenario.

RESULTS

The cost-minimising non-pharmaceutical mitigation depends on the availability of vaccines: the differences between the two scenarios are 14 to 19 million years of in-person education and $153 to $204 billion in economic activity. The value of the booster campaign ranges from $2,500 ($1,400-$4,100) to $2,800 ($1,700-$4,600) per dose in the first year, depending on life-year valuations.

CONCLUSIONS

The societal benefits of booster vaccination are substantial. Much of the value of vaccination resides in the reduced need for costly non-pharmaceutical mitigation. We propose cost minimisation as a tool for policy decision-making and valuation of vaccination, taking into account all socio-economic costs, and not averted deaths alone.

Economic evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination: A systematic review

Background

Safe and effective vaccination is considered to be the most critical strategy to fight coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), leading to individual and herd immunity protection. We aimed to systematically review the economic evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination globally.

Methods

We performed a systematic search to identify relevant studies in two major databases (MEDLINE/PubMed and EBSCO) published until September 8, 2022. After deduplication, two researchers independently screened the study titles and abstracts according to pre-determined inclusion and exclusion criteria. The remaining full-text studies were assessed for eligibility. We assessed their quality of reporting using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) 2022 checklist and summarized and narratively presented the results.

Results

We identified 25 studies that assessed the economic evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination worldwide by considering several input parameters, including vaccine cost, vaccine efficacy, utility value, and the size of the targeted population. All studies suggested that COVID-19 vaccination was a cost-effective or cost-saving intervention for mitigating coronavirus transmission and its effect in many countries within certain conditions. Most studies reported vaccine efficacy values ranging from 65% to 75%.

Conclusions

Given the favorable cost-effectiveness profile of COVID-19 vaccines and disparities in affordability across countries, considering prioritization has become paramount. This review provides comprehensive insights into the economic evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination that will be useful to policymakers, particularly in highlighting preventive measures and preparedness plans for the next possible pandemic.

Estimated global public health and economic impact of COVID-19 vaccines in the pre-omicron era using real-world empirical data

BACKGROUND

Limited data are available describing the global impact of COVID-19 vaccines. This study estimated the global public health and economic impact of COVID-19 vaccines before the emergence of the Omicron variant.

METHODS

A static model covering 215 countries/territories compared the direct effects of COVID-19 vaccination to no vaccination during 13 December 2020-30 September 2021. After adjusting for underreporting of cases and deaths, base case analyses estimated total cases and deaths averted, and direct outpatient and productivity costs saved through averted health outcomes. Sensitivity analyses applied alternative model assumptions.

RESULTS

COVID-19 vaccines prevented an estimated median (IQR) of 151.7 (133.7-226.1) million cases and 620.5 (411.1-698.1) thousand deaths globally through September 2021. In sensitivity analysis applying an alternative underreporting assumption, median deaths averted were 2.1 million. Estimated direct outpatient cost savings were $21.2 ($18.9-30.9) billion and indirect savings of avoided productivity loss were $135.1 ($121.1-206.4) billion, yielding a total cost savings of $155 billion globally through averted infections.

CONCLUSIONS

Using a conservative modeling approach that considered direct effects only, we estimated that COVID-19 vaccines have averted millions of infections and deaths, generating billions of cost savings worldwide, which underscore the continued importance of vaccination in public health response to COVID-19.

Real-world Evidence of COVID-19 Vaccines Effectiveness in Solid-organ Transplant Recipient Population in Colombia: A Study Nested in the Esperanza Cohort

BACKGROUND

Solid-organ transplant recipients (SOTRs) have a higher risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) complications and death and a less powerful and lasting response to vaccines and to natural infection. In Colombia, this population was prioritized in the National Vaccination Plan against COVID-19 and received vaccines from different platforms. The aim of this study was to estimate the effectiveness of the complete vaccination schedule and of the vaccine booster for COVID-19 administered to SOTRs in Colombia.

METHODS

A nested-cohort was assembled within the population-based ESPERANZA cohort and included the subset of 16 y and older SOTRs (n = 6963); the follow-up period spanned March 11, 2021, to May 11, 2022. The vaccine effectiveness was estimated with Cox proportional-hazards models so that the overall effectiveness of the complete vaccination schedule, the vaccine booster, each used vaccine, and the homologous and heterologous schedules were estimated, adjusting by the main confounders.

RESULTS

The overall effectiveness of being fully vaccinated was 73.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 68.9%-77.0%) to prevent COVID-19 infection, 83.7% (95% CI, 78.7%-87.5%) to prevent hospitalization, and 92.1% (95% CI, 88.8%-94.4%) to prevent death due to COVID-19. Similarly, the effectiveness of the vaccine booster was 76.7% (95% CI, 70.6%-81.5%), 86.9% (95% CI, 79.4%-91.6%), and 94.5% (95% CI, 89.8%-97.1%) to prevent confirmed COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, and death due to COVID-19, respectively. In both cases, there were no statistically significant differences across age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings from this work show a high protection of vaccination against infection, hospitalization, and death due to COVID-19 in SOTRs, which increases with the vaccine booster.

Ubiquitin variants potently inhibit SARS-CoV-2 PLpro and viral replication via a novel site distal to the protease active site

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has made it clear that combating coronavirus outbreaks benefits from a combination of vaccines and therapeutics. A promising drug target common to all coronaviruses-including SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, and SARS-CoV-2-is the papain-like protease (PLpro). PLpro cleaves part of the viral replicase polyproteins into non-structural protein subunits, which are essential to the viral replication cycle. Additionally, PLpro can cleave both ubiquitin and the ubiquitin-like protein ISG15 from host cell substrates as a mechanism to evade innate immune responses during infection. These roles make PLpro an attractive antiviral drug target. Here we demonstrate that ubiquitin variants (UbVs) can be selected from a phage-displayed library and used to specifically and potently block SARS-CoV-2 PLpro activity. A crystal structure of SARS-CoV-2 PLpro in complex with a representative UbV reveals a dimeric UbV bound to PLpro at a site distal to the catalytic site. Yet, the UbV inhibits the essential cleavage activities of the protease in vitro and in cells, and it reduces viral replication in cell culture by almost five orders of magnitude.

Improving COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake among Black Populations: A Systematic Review of Strategies

Given the growing body of evidence on COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy among Black populations, the aim of this systematic review was to identify the interventions and strategies used to improve COVID-19 vaccine confidence and uptake among Black populations globally. To identify relevant studies, we conducted a systematic review of the literature based on a systematic search of 10 electronic databases: MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Scopus, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Sociological Abstracts, Dissertations and Theses Global, and SocINDEX. We screened a total of 1728 records and included 14 peer-reviewed interventional studies that were conducted to address COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy among Black populations. A critical appraisal of the included studies was performed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale. The intervention strategies for increasing COVID-19 vaccine uptake were synthesized into three major categories: communication and information-based interventions, mandate-based interventions, and incentive-based interventions. Interventions that incorporated communication, community engagement, and culturally inclusive resources significantly improved vaccine uptake among Black populations, while incentive- and mandate-based interventions had less impact. Overall, this systematic review revealed that consideration of the sociocultural, historical, and political contexts of Black populations is important, but tailored interventions that integrate culture-affirming strategies are more likely to decrease COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and increase uptake among Black populations.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of COVID-19 Vaccination in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Background

WHO reported that 5.5 million people died in the world because of COVID-19. One of the efforts to mitigate the pandemic is administrating the vaccines globally.

Objective

The objective of this study was to review cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 vaccination in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

Methods

We searched PubMed and EBSCO for the eligible studies with inclusion criteria using cost-effectiveness analysis, free full text, low-middle-income countries, and the publication date since the last year. Four reviewers conducted the review independently.

Results

The review identified four articles meeting the eligibility criteria. The settings were LMICs. Different perspectives and economic modelling used by the countries confirmed a similar result. They all explained that vaccination could prevent the infection spread and mortality caused by COVID-19 and showed high cost-effectiveness values.

Conclusion

Administering COVID-19 vaccines was cost-effective and even cost-saving. The studies found that vaccination was more cost-effective in reducing the spread of the COVID-19 virus and the mortality it caused than no vaccination.

On the role of data, statistics and decisions in a pandemic

A pandemic poses particular challenges to decision-making because of the need to continuously adapt decisions to rapidly changing evidence and available data. For example, which countermeasures are appropriate at a particular stage of the pandemic? How can the severity of the pandemic be measured? What is the effect of vaccination in the population and which groups should be vaccinated first? The process of decision-making starts with data collection and modeling and continues to the dissemination of results and the subsequent decisions taken. The goal of this paper is to give an overview of this process and to provide recommendations for the different steps from a statistical perspective. In particular, we discuss a range of modeling techniques including mathematical, statistical and decision-analytic models along with their applications in the COVID-19 context. With this overview, we aim to foster the understanding of the goals of these modeling approaches and the specific data requirements that are essential for the interpretation of results and for successful interdisciplinary collaborations. A special focus is on the role played by data in these different models, and we incorporate into the discussion the importance of statistical literacy and of effective dissemination and communication of findings.

Epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 vaccination in Kenya

BACKGROUND

A few studies have assessed the epidemiological impact and the cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in settings where most of the population had been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 infection.

METHODS

We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 vaccine in Kenya from a societal perspective over a 1.5-year time frame. An age-structured transmission model assumed at least 80% of the population to have prior natural immunity when an immune escape variant was introduced. We examine the effect of slow (18 months) or rapid (6 months) vaccine roll-out with vaccine coverage of 30%, 50% or 70% of the adult (>18 years) population prioritising roll-out in those over 50-years (80% uptake in all scenarios). Cost data were obtained from primary analyses. We assumed vaccine procurement at US$7 per dose and vaccine delivery costs of US$3.90-US$6.11 per dose. The cost-effectiveness threshold was US$919.11.

FINDINGS

Slow roll-out at 30% coverage largely targets those over 50 years and resulted in 54% fewer deaths (8132 (7914-8373)) than no vaccination and was cost saving (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, ICER=US$-1343 (US$-1345 to US$-1341) per disability-adjusted life-year, DALY averted). Increasing coverage to 50% and 70%, further reduced deaths by 12% (810 (757-872) and 5% (282 (251-317) but was not cost-effective, using Kenya's cost-effectiveness threshold (US$919.11). Rapid roll-out with 30% coverage averted 63% more deaths and was more cost-saving (ICER=US$-1607 (US$-1609 to US$-1604) per DALY averted) compared with slow roll-out at the same coverage level, but 50% and 70% coverage scenarios were not cost-effective.

INTERPRETATION

With prior exposure partially protecting much of the Kenyan population, vaccination of young adults may no longer be cost-effective.

In vivo fate and intracellular trafficking of vaccine delivery systems

With the pandemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, vaccine delivery systems emerged as a core technology for global public health. Given that antigen processing takes place inside the cell, the intracellular delivery and trafficking of a vaccine antigen will contribute to vaccine efficiency. Investigations focusing on the in vivo behavior and intracellular transport of vaccines have improved our understanding of the mechanisms relevant to vaccine delivery systems and facilitated the design of novel potent vaccine platforms. In this review, we cover the intracellular trafficking and in vivo fate of vaccines administered via various routes and delivery systems. To improve immune responses, researchers have used various strategies to modulate vaccine platforms and intracellular trafficking. In addition to progress in vaccine trafficking studies, the challenges and future perspectives for designing next-generation vaccines are discussed.

Cost-effectiveness of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccination in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

BACKGROUND

Despite the advent of safe and effective coronavirus disease 2019 vaccines, pervasive inequities in global vaccination persist.

METHODS

We projected health benefits and donor costs of delivering vaccines for up to 60% of the population in 91 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We modeled a highly contagious (Re at model start, 1.7), low-virulence (infection fatality ratio [IFR], 0.32%) "Omicron-like" variant and a similarly contagious "severe" variant (IFR, 0.59%) over 360 days, accounting for country-specific age structure and healthcare capacity. Costs included vaccination startup (US$630 million) and per-person procurement and delivery (US$12.46/person vaccinated).

RESULTS

In the Omicron-like scenario, increasing current vaccination coverage to achieve at least 15% in each of the 91 LMICs would prevent 11 million new infections and 120 000 deaths, at a cost of US$0.95 billion, for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of US$670/year of life saved (YLS). Increases in vaccination coverage to 60% would additionally prevent up to 68 million infections and 160 000 deaths, with ICERs <US$8000/YLS. ICERs were <US$4000/YLS under the more severe variant scenario and generally robust to assumptions about vaccine effectiveness, uptake, and costs.

CONCLUSIONS

Funding expanded COVID-19 vaccine delivery in LMICs would save hundreds of thousands of lives, be similarly or more cost-effective than other donor-funded global aid programs, and improve health equity.

COVID-19 vaccination hesitancy among people with chronic neurological disorders: a position paper

Background and purpose

Health risks associated with SARS‐CoV‐2 infection are undisputed. Moreover, the capability of vaccination to prevent symptomatic, severe, and fatal COVID‐19 is recognized. There is also early evidence that vaccination can reduce the chance for long COVID‐19. Nonetheless, the willingness to get vaccinated and receive booster shots remains subpar among people with neurologic disorders. Vaccine scepticism not only jeopardizes collective efforts to end the COVID‐19 pandemic but puts individual lives at risk, as some chronic neurologic diseases are associated with a higher risk for an unfavorable COVID‐19 course.

Methods

In this position paper, the NeuroCOVID‐19 Task Force of the European Academy of Neurology (EAN) summarizes the current knowledge on the prognosis of COVID‐19 among patients with neurologic disease, elucidates potential barriers to vaccination coverage, and formulates strategies to overcome vaccination hesitancy. A survey among the Task Force members on the phenomenon of vaccination hesitancy among people with neurologic disease supports the lines of argumentation.

Results

The study revealed that people with multiple sclerosis and other nervous system autoimmune disorders are most skeptical of SARS‐CoV‐2 vaccination. The prevailing concerns included the chance of worsening the pre‐existing neurological condition, vaccination‐related adverse events, and drug interaction.

Conclusions

The EAN NeuroCOVID‐19 Task Force reinforces the key role of neurologists as advocates of COVID‐19 vaccination. Neurologists need to argue in the interest of their patients about the overwhelming individual and global benefits of COVID‐19 vaccination. Moreover, they need to keep on eye on this vulnerable patient group, its concerns, and the emergence of potential safety signals.

Cost-effectiveness of Routine Provider-Initiated Testing and Counseling for Children With Undiagnosed HIV in South Africa

BACKGROUND

We compared the cost-effectiveness of pediatric provider-initiated HIV testing and counseling (PITC) vs no PITC in a range of clinical care settings in South Africa.

METHODS

We used the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications Pediatric model to simulate a cohort of children, aged 2-10 years, presenting for care in 4 settings (outpatient, malnutrition, inpatient, tuberculosis clinic) with varying prevalence of undiagnosed HIV (1.0%, 15.0%, 17.5%, 50.0%, respectively). We compared "PITC" (routine testing offered to all patients; 97% acceptance and 71% linkage to care after HIV diagnosis) with no PITC. Model outcomes included life expectancy, lifetime costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) from the health care system perspective and the proportion of children with HIV (CWH) diagnosed, on antiretroviral therapy (ART), and virally suppressed. We assumed a threshold of $3200/year of life saved (YLS) to determine cost-effectiveness. Sensitivity analyses varied the age distribution of children seeking care and costs for PITC, HIV care, and ART.

RESULTS

PITC improved the proportion of CWH diagnosed (45.2% to 83.2%), on ART (40.8% to 80.4%), and virally suppressed (32.6% to 63.7%) at 1 year in all settings. PITC increased life expectancy by 0.1-0.7 years for children seeking care (including those with and without HIV). In all settings, the ICER of PITC vs no PITC was very similar, ranging from $710 to $1240/YLS. PITC remained cost-effective unless undiagnosed HIV prevalence was <0.2%.

CONCLUSIONS

Routine testing improves HIV clinical outcomes and is cost-effective in South Africa if the prevalence of undiagnosed HIV among children exceeds 0.2%. These findings support current recommendations for PITC in outpatient, inpatient, tuberculosis, and malnutrition clinical settings.