Drought self-propagation in drylands due to land-atmosphere feedbacks

Spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought events in 34 major global river basins during 1901-2021

Meteorological drought is a crucial driver of various types of droughts; thus, identifying the spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought at the basin scale has implications for ecological and water resource security. However, differences in drought characteristics between river basins have not been clearly elucidated. In this study, we identify and compare meteorological drought events in 34 major river basins worldwide using a three-dimensional drought-clustering algorithm based on the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index on a 12-month scale from 1901 to 2021. Despite synchronous increases in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), with precipitation increasing by more than three times the PET, 47 % (16/34) of the basins showed a tendency towards drought in over half their basin areas. Drought events occurred frequently, with more than half identified as short-term droughts (lasting less than or equal to three months). Small basins had a larger drought impact area, with major drought events often originating from the basin boundaries and migrating towards the basin centre. Meteorological droughts were driven by changes in sea surface temperature (SST), especially the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or other climate indices. Anomalies in SST and atmospheric circulation caused by ENSO events may have led to altered climate patterns in different basins, resulting in drought events. These results provide important insights into the characteristics and mechanisms of meteorological droughts in different river basins worldwide.

The first global multi-timescale daily SPEI dataset from 1982 to 2021

Global warming accelerates water cycle, causing more droughts globally that challenge monitoring and forecasting. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is used to assess drought characteristics and response time of natural and economic systems at various timescales. However, existing SPEI datasets have coarse spatial or temporal resolution or limited spatial extent, restricting their ability to accurately identify the start or end dates or the extent of drought at the global scale. To narrow these gaps, we developed a global daily SPEI dataset (SPEI-GD), with a 0.25° spatial resolution from 1982 to 2021 at multiple timescales (5, 30, 90, 180 and 360 days), based on the precipitation from European Center for Medium Weather Forecasting Reanalysis V5 (ERA5) dataset and the potential evapotranspiration from Singer's dataset. Compared to widely used SPEIbase dataset, the SPEI-GD can improve the spatial-temporal resolution and the accuracy of SPEI in areas where meteorological sites are lacking. The SPEI-GD significantly correlates with site-based SPEI and soil moisture. Our dataset solidly supports sub-seasonal and daily-scale global and regional drought research.

Meteorological drought migration characteristics based on an improved spatiotemporal structure approach in the Loess Plateau of China

The development of drought has spatial and temporal synchronization. Previous studies usually explore the spatial and temporal evolution of drought separately. Moreover, existing approaches are based on a fixed overlapping area and do not consider the variable drought cluster area during development. This study proposes an improved and simple approach to derive dynamic overlapping area threshold for 3-dimensional droughts extraction. Based on the one monthly Nonparametric Standardized Precipitation Index (NSPI), this improved approach was applied for investigating the migration characteristics of meteorological drought events in the Loess Plateau of China. Then, Random Forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting model with Shapley additive explanation values were used to quantify the importance of driving factors on the dynamics of drought characteristics. The results showed that: (1) the improved approach has a better performance on identifying prolonged droughts than the method using a fixed overlap area threshold; (2) spatially, meteorological drought events with high severity (DS), long duration (DD), large effected area (DA) and fast migration velocity (DV) mainly occur in the central region; (3) temporally, droughts are expected to aggravate with significantly increased DS and DA which are mainly caused by increased temperature and vegetation; and (4) meteorological droughts have a preferred westward migration direction and three dominant migration paths, which are crucial for local drought prevention and control. The findings of this study provide new perspectives on drought migration characteristics, which are important for the exploration of drought-driven mechanisms, risk assessment and future prediction.

Spatiotemporal links between meteorological and agricultural droughts impacted by tropical cyclones in China

Both droughts and tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the world's most widespread natural disasters. This paper is concentrated on the effects of TCs on the links between meteorological droughts (MDs) and agricultural droughts (ADs). Specifically, changes in characteristics of drought events and variations in propagation features of matched MD and AD event pairs are quantified by using the renowned three-dimensional connected components algorithm; both alleviation and exacerbation effects of TCs are evaluated; and the Spearman's correlation is employed to identify potential contributors to exacerbated droughts after TCs. The results show that TCs exhibit more pronounced and widespread alleviation effects on MD events compared to AD events. >98 % of small-scale drought events are terminated by TCs, leading to 65 % reduction in the total area of MD events smaller than 50,000 km2 and 32 % reduction in AD events of the same scale. In the meantime, TCs can reshape the spatiotemporal links between MDs and ADs by reducing the overall propagation rate from 77 % to 40 % and ameliorating the characteristics of drought event pairs with higher propagation efficiency, by >40 %. After TCs, over 55 % of drought exacerbations in TC-affected regions occur first in the vicinity of the residual large-scale AD events. This occurrence is partially associated with the reduction in moisture exports from these residual droughts downwind to the interior of TC-affected regions, a process potentially facilitated by the TC-induced temperature cooling. The in-depth evaluation of this paper presents useful information for better drought preparation and mitigation under TCs.

Grassland cover dynamics and their relationship with climatic factors in China from 1982 to 2021

China possesses abundant grassland resources, making it imperative to comprehend the influence of climate change on Chinese grassland ecosystems. Nonetheless, the impact pathways and lag effects of climate factors on various grassland types in this region at multiple temporal scales are still to be investigated in long-term sequences. This study investigated the dynamics of grassland FVC (fractional vegetation cover), temperature, precipitation, and drought from 1982 to 2021 using trend analysis, multiple linear regression, path analysis, and correlation analysis and explored the dominant, direct, indirect, and time-lag effects of climate factors on different grassland types at multiple time scales. Precipitation-grassland correlation pathways dominated the annual-scale grassland FVC. The correlation path of temperature to grassland FVC and the direct path of temperature dominated spring grassland FVC. The correlation path of drought to grassland FVC and the direct path of drought dominated summer grassland FVC. The correlation path of temperature to grassland FVC and the direct path of temperature dominated autumn and winter grassland FVC. The effects of temperature and precipitation on alpine and subalpine meadows, desert grasslands, and alpine and subalpine plains grasslands had a 1-month lag. The response to drought exhibited a 1-month lag in desert grasslands, a 2-month lag in alpine and subalpine meadows, plains grasslands, meadows, and alpine and subalpine plains grasslands, and a 3-month lag in sloped grasslands. This study seeks to provide a scientific reference to reveal the impact of climate change on grasslands and to protect grassland ecosystems.

Evaluation of flash drought under the impact of heat wave events in southwestern Germany

Flash droughts are a recently recognised type of extreme drought defined by the rapid onset and strong intensification of drought conditions. Our understanding of flash drought processes under the influence of heat waves needs to be improved in the context of global warming. Here, we applied a physically based hydrological model, i.e., TRAnspiration and INterception (TRAIN) model to simulate root zone soil moisture (RZSM) and evapotranspiration (ET) with daily time steps and at a 1 × 1 km resolution to identify and assess flash droughts. Two states, Baden-Württemberg (BW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), located in southwestern Germany, were selected as the study areas. Three datasets, the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) dataset, ERA5-Land (land component of the fifth generation of European ReAnalysis) dataset, and SMAP-L4 (Soil Moisture Active Passive Level-4) dataset, were selected to evaluate the TRAIN simulated RZSM and ET from 1961 to 2016. The results show that the simulated RZSM had the highest correlation with the ERA5-Land products, followed by SMAP-L4 and GLEAM, with regional average correlation coefficients (CC) of 0.765, 0.762, and 0.746, respectively. The CC of the TRAIN simulated ET with ERA5-Land and GLEAM ET were 0.828 and 0.803, respectively. The results of the trend analyses showed a significant increase (p < 0.05) in the number of flash droughts and heat waves in both the BW and RP states. A comparative analysis revealed that the mean duration and onset speed of flash droughts in BW (RP) without heat waves were 10.42 (10.67) pentads and 19.69th percentile/pentad (17.16th percentile/pentad), respectively, while associated with heat waves they were 8.95 (9.53) pentads and 21.77th percentile/pentad (19.91th percentile/pentad), respectively. This indicates that flash droughts under the influence of heat waves are generally shorter in duration but faster in occurrence. The findings of this study have important implications for flash drought assessment, monitoring, and mitigation under the impact of heat waves.

Increased uptake of deep soil water promotes drought resistance in mixed forests

The intensity and frequency of droughts are projected to rise in recent years and adversely affect forests. Thus, information on plant water use and acclimation during and after droughts is crucial. This study used the stable isotope and thermal dissipation probes to detect the water-use adaptation of mixed forests to drought using a precipitation gradient control experiment in the field. The results showed that Platycladus orientalis and Quercus variabilis mainly absorbed stable water from deep soil layers during the drought (32.05% and 28.2%, respectively). The synergetic nocturnal sap flow in both species replenished the water loss, but P. orientalis experienced a greater decline in transpiration acclimation to drought. The transpiration of Q. variabilis remained high since it was mainly induced by radiation. After short-term exposure to drought, P. orientalis majorly obtained shallow soil water, confirming its sensitivity to shallow water. Contrarily, Q. variabilis mainly absorbed stable water from deep soil layers regardless of the soil water content. Therefore, these findings suggest that Q. variabilis cannot physiologically adjust to extreme drought events, possibly limiting their future distributions and altering the composition of boreal forests.

Widespread and complex drought effects on vegetation physiology inferred from space

The response of vegetation physiology to drought at large spatial scales is poorly understood due to a lack of direct observations. Here, we study vegetation drought responses related to photosynthesis, evaporation, and vegetation water content using remotely sensed data, and we isolate physiological responses using a machine learning technique. We find that vegetation functional decreases are largely driven by the downregulation of vegetation physiology such as stomatal conductance and light use efficiency, with the strongest downregulation in water-limited regions. Vegetation physiological decreases in wet regions also result in a discrepancy between functional and structural changes under severe drought. We find similar patterns of physiological drought response using simulations from a soil-plant-atmosphere continuum model coupled with a radiative transfer model. Observation-derived vegetation physiological responses to drought across space are mainly controlled by aridity and additionally modulated by abnormal hydro-meteorological conditions and vegetation types. Hence, isolating and quantifying vegetation physiological responses to drought enables a better understanding of ecosystem biogeochemical and biophysical feedback in modulating climate change.

Reversed Holocene temperature-moisture relationship in the Horn of Africa

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to severely impact the global hydrological cycle1, particularly in tropical regions where agriculture-based economies depend on monsoon rainfall2. In the Horn of Africa, more frequent drought conditions in recent decades3,4 contrast with climate models projecting precipitation to increase with rising temperature5. Here we use organic geochemical climate-proxy data from the sediment record of Lake Chala (Kenya and Tanzania) to probe the stability of the link between hydroclimate and temperature over approximately the past 75,000 years, hence encompassing a sufficiently wide range of temperatures to test the 'dry gets drier, wet gets wetter' paradigm6 of anthropogenic climate change in the time domain. We show that the positive relationship between effective moisture and temperature in easternmost Africa during the cooler last glacial period shifted to negative around the onset of the Holocene 11,700 years ago, when the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration exceeded 250 parts per million and mean annual temperature approached modern-day values. Thus, at that time, the budget between monsoonal precipitation and continental evaporation7 crossed a tipping point such that the positive influence of temperature on evaporation became greater than its positive influence on precipitation. Our results imply that under continued anthropogenic warming, the Horn of Africa will probably experience further drying, and they highlight the need for improved simulation of both dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the tropical hydrological cycle.

Land-atmosphere feedbacks contribute to crop failure in global rainfed breadbaskets

Global crop yields are highly dependent on climate variability, with the largest agricultural failures frequently occurring during extremely dry and hot years. Land-atmosphere feedbacks are thought to play a crucial role in agricultural productivity during such events: precipitation deficits cause soil desiccation, which reduces evaporation and enhances sensible heating from the land surface; the amplified local temperatures and moisture deficits can be detrimental to crop yield. While this impact of local land-atmosphere feedbacks on agricultural productivity has recently been reported, the dependency of crop yields on upwind regions remains understudied. Here, we determine the spatio-temporal origins of moisture and heat over the world's largest 75 rainfed breadbaskets, and illustrate the crop yield dependency on upwind regions. Further, we disentangle the role of local and upwind land-atmosphere interactions on anomalous moisture and heat transport during low-yield years. Our results indicate that crop failure increases on average by around 40% when both upwind and local land-atmosphere feedbacks cause anomalously low moisture and high heat transport into the breadbaskets. The impact of upwind land-atmosphere feedbacks on productivity deficits is the largest in water-limited regions, which show an increased dependency on moisture supply from upwind land areas. Better understanding these upwind-downwind dependencies in agricultural regions can help develop adaptation strategies to prevent food shortage in a changing climate.

Soil moisture-evaporation coupling shifts into new gears under increasing CO2

When soil moisture (SM) content falls within a transitional regime between dry and wet conditions, it controls evaporation, affecting atmospheric heat and humidity. Accordingly, different SM regimes correspond to different gears of land-atmosphere coupling, affecting climate. Determining patterns of SM regimes and their future evolution is imperative. Here, we examine global SM regime distributions from ten climate models. Under increasing CO₂, the range of SM extends into unprecedented coupling regimes in many locations. Solely wet regime areas decline globally by 15.9%, while transitional regimes emerge in currently humid areas of the tropics and high latitudes. Many semiarid regions spend more days in the transitional regime and fewer in the dry regime. These imply that a larger fraction of the world will evolve to experience multiple gears of land-atmosphere coupling, with the strongly coupled transitional regime expanding the most. This could amplify future climate sensitivity to land-atmosphere feedbacks and land management.

Climate warming and summer monsoon breaks drive compound dry and hot extremes in India

Considering the severe impacts of compound dry and hot extremes, we examine the primary drivers of CDHEs during the summer monsoon in India. Using ERA5 reanalysis, we show that most of the CDHEs in India occur during the droughts caused by the summer monsoon rainfall deficit. Despite a decline in the frequency of summer monsoon droughts in recent decades, increased CDHEs are mainly driven by warming and dry spells during the summer monsoon particularly in the Northeast, central northeast, and west central regions. A strong land-atmospheric coupling during droughts in the summer monsoon season leads to frequent CDHEs in the Northwest and southern peninsular regions. Furthermore, regional variations in land-atmospheric coupling cause substantial differences in the CDHE occurrence in different parts of the country. Summer monsoon rainfall variability and increased warming can pose a greater risk of compound dry and hot extremes with severe impacts on various sectors in India.

•

CDHEs have increased in the observed period despite a decline in droughts in India

•

CDHEs are largely driven by the rise in dry and warm spells during the monsoon season

•

Regional variations in CDHEs are linked with the changes in land-atmospheric coupling

Drought-heatwave nexus in Brazil and related impacts on health and fires: A comprehensive review

Climate change is drastically altering the frequency, duration, and severity of compound drought-heatwave (CDHW) episodes, which present a new challenge in environmental and socioeconomic sectors. These threats are of particular importance in low-income regions with growing populations, fragile infrastructure, and threatened ecosystems. This review synthesizes emerging progress in the understanding of CDHW patterns in Brazil while providing insights about the impacts on fire occurrence and public health. Evidence is mounting that heatwaves are becoming increasingly linked with droughts in northeastern and southeastern Brazil, the Amazonia, and the Pantanal. In those regions, recent studies have begun to build a better understanding of the physical mechanisms behind CDHW events, such as the soil moisture-atmosphere coupling, promoted by exceptional atmospheric blocking conditions. Results hint at a synergy between CDHW events and high fire activity in the country over the last decades, with the most recent example being the catastrophic 2020 fires in the Pantanal. Moreover, we show that HWs were responsible for increasing mortality and preterm births during record-breaking droughts in southeastern Brazil. This work paves the way for a more in-depth understanding on CDHW events and their impacts, which is crucial to enhance the adaptive capacity of different Brazilian sectors.