Re-intensification of flash drought in western China over the past decade: Implications of fluctuating wetting trend

Climate changes and human activities have led to a rise of frequency and intensity of the global flash droughts, resulting in severe consequences for ecosystems, agriculture, and human societies. However, research dedicated to flash droughts in the dryland of western China is relatively limited, leaving their evolutionary characteristics and development processes of these phenomena unclear. To bridge this gap, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of flash droughts in western China from 1981 to 2020, based on the standardized evapotranspiration stress index. Additionally, we investigated the development mechanisms by taking meteorological conditions and soil moisture into account. The findings revealed that the northern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, western Qilian Mountains, and western and southern Loess Plateau are hotspots of flash droughts, characterized by rapid development rates. Across most of the study area, flash drought events persisted between 25 and 30 days. Adequate precipitation is necessary before the onset of flash droughts in western China, while water scarcity and high temperatures played crucial roles in driving the mid-stage of flash droughts. Within the context of the observed "warming and wetting" trend, the average flash droughts occurrence from 2011 to 2020 was approximately 16 % lower than that from 1981 to 1990, and there was a significant annual decrease in spatial coverage of 0.01 % per year. However, in the "wetting in west, drying in east" trend, the spatial coverage of flash droughts has shifted from a declining trend to an insignificant increasing trend since 2000 in the study area, with significant regional differences between the western and eastern regions. Over the past decade, flash droughts had once again intensified in the central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Loess Plateau due to warming and fluctuating wetting trends, raising significant concerns for future ecosystem and agricultural water management in these regions.

Assessment of Evaporative Demand Drought Index for drought analysis in Peninsular Malaysia

An effective drought monitoring tool is essential for the development of timely drought early warning system. This study evaluates Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) as a drought indicator in measuring spatiotemporal evolution of droughts over Peninsular Malaysia during 1989-2018. The modified Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope tests were performed to detect the presence of monotonic trends in EDDI, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and their related climate variables. The performance of EDDI in capturing the drought onset, evolutions and demise of historical severe droughts was also compared with SPI and SPEI at multiple timescales. EDDI demonstrates strong spatiotemporal correlations with SPI and SPEI and comparable performance in historical drought events identification. At sub-monthly timescale, 2-week EDDI displays equivalent drought severities and durations for all historical severe droughts corresponding to the monthly EDDI. In the case when rainfall deficits are normalized in an otherwise warm and dry month, EDDI may serve as a great alternative to SPI and SPEI due to it being sensitive to the changes in prevalent atmospheric conditions. Collectively, the results fill in the knowledge gaps on drought evolutions from the evaporative perspective and highlight the efficacy of EDDI as a valuable drought early warning tool for Peninsular Malaysia. Future study should explore the physical mechanisms behind the development of flash drought and the role of evaporation in the drought propagation processes.

Evaluation of flash drought under the impact of heat wave events in southwestern Germany

Flash droughts are a recently recognised type of extreme drought defined by the rapid onset and strong intensification of drought conditions. Our understanding of flash drought processes under the influence of heat waves needs to be improved in the context of global warming. Here, we applied a physically based hydrological model, i.e., TRAnspiration and INterception (TRAIN) model to simulate root zone soil moisture (RZSM) and evapotranspiration (ET) with daily time steps and at a 1 × 1 km resolution to identify and assess flash droughts. Two states, Baden-Württemberg (BW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), located in southwestern Germany, were selected as the study areas. Three datasets, the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) dataset, ERA5-Land (land component of the fifth generation of European ReAnalysis) dataset, and SMAP-L4 (Soil Moisture Active Passive Level-4) dataset, were selected to evaluate the TRAIN simulated RZSM and ET from 1961 to 2016. The results show that the simulated RZSM had the highest correlation with the ERA5-Land products, followed by SMAP-L4 and GLEAM, with regional average correlation coefficients (CC) of 0.765, 0.762, and 0.746, respectively. The CC of the TRAIN simulated ET with ERA5-Land and GLEAM ET were 0.828 and 0.803, respectively. The results of the trend analyses showed a significant increase (p < 0.05) in the number of flash droughts and heat waves in both the BW and RP states. A comparative analysis revealed that the mean duration and onset speed of flash droughts in BW (RP) without heat waves were 10.42 (10.67) pentads and 19.69th percentile/pentad (17.16th percentile/pentad), respectively, while associated with heat waves they were 8.95 (9.53) pentads and 21.77th percentile/pentad (19.91th percentile/pentad), respectively. This indicates that flash droughts under the influence of heat waves are generally shorter in duration but faster in occurrence. The findings of this study have important implications for flash drought assessment, monitoring, and mitigation under the impact of heat waves.

Remote sensing of atmospheric and soil water stress on ecosystem carbon and water use during flash droughts over eastern China

Flash droughts are often accompanied by large soil and atmospheric moisture deficits, and the concurrence of flash droughts and high temperature may have a great impact on the ecosystem. However, the stress of soil and atmospheric moisture deficits on carbon and water use of the ecosystem during flash droughts, especially during the drought periods with hot conditions, are unclear over a large region. In this study, we decoupled the atmospheric and soil water stress over eastern China by using vegetation productivity data and photosynthetically active radiation data retrieved from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The analysis is conducted during flash droughts and their sub-periods that are accompanied by high temperature and intense radiation from 2003 to 2018. The results showed that soil moisture (SM) stress was significantly greater than the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) stress on vegetation productivity in the humid regions of eastern China during flash droughts. However, high VPD controlled the water stress on light use efficiency (LUE) of vegetation over 55 % of the regions. For the hot periods of flash droughts, the area subjected to VPD stress on vegetation productivity significantly increased in semi-arid and semi-humid regions. The concurrent hot and drought conditions also increased water use efficiency (WUE) for most areas, which suggests that the reduction percentage of vegetation productivity is larger than that of evapotranspiration. Our research emphasized the severe impact of compound hot and flash drought conditions on vegetation carbon and water use from a remote sensing perspective.

Land-atmosphere coupling speeds up flash drought onset

Flash drought is a type of drought with rapid onset and great destructiveness, which poses a serious threat to agriculture, ecosystem, and environment without sufficient early warning. The rapid onset is a unique feature that distinguishes flash drought from conventional dry conditions, but its underlying mechanism remains unclear. With the 42-years reanalysis data, we compared the differences in convective triggering potential and atmospheric humidity indices between flash drought onset and conventional dry conditions over China. We found that the dry land-atmospheric coupling can speed up flash drought onset by suppressing precipitation and increasing evapotranspiration. Results show that the increase of sensible heat transport during flash drought onset can intensify the heating of atmosphere, and enhance the lifting condensation level deficit which efficiently inhibits the convective precipitation. Meanwhile, the atmospheric drying significantly increases the evapotranspiration demand and decreases soil moisture, thus speeds up the drought onset. In this regard, the drier land surface makes the atmosphere drier through land-atmosphere coupling, and the rapid drought onset can be maintained via the positive feedback. Although the contribution of precipitation deficit averaged over China is 92 %, the evapotranspiration excess is also critical for increasing the onset speed especially over South China where the flash drought hotspot exists. With the contribution of evapotranspiration increased by about 26 %, the flash drought onset speed over China almost doubled. This study highlights the importance of dry land-atmospheric coupling for speeding up flash drought onset and provides insights for flash drought diagnosis and prediction.

Characteristics and driving conditions of flash drought in different grassland ecosystems

At present, flash droughts are poorly understood. Mature prevention and control measures are not available. This study aims to thoroughly explore the evolution characteristics of flash droughts in grassland ecosystems and to determine the meteorological driving conditions for inducing and relieving flash droughts. We propose the concept of the strong evapotranspiration flash drought (SEFD), a new type of flash drought in mid-temperate grasslands. The frequency of SEFDs is lower than that of heat wave flash droughts (HWFDs), but the intensity and impact of SEFDs are greater than those of HWFDs. Flash droughts in grasslands exhibit a high outbreak period from May to August, with the intensity basically above that of moderate drought. HWFDs occur most frequently in June and SEFDs in May. Meadow grasslands are the type of grassland with the highest risk of flash drought. Typical grasslands are more prone to HWFDs, while desert grasslands are more prone to SEFD outbreaks. In this study, a multifactor method was established to quantitatively evaluate the key influencing factors inducing flash droughts of different intensities in different time periods and to quantitatively predict the evolution of flash droughts into seasonal droughts. The temperature, water vapor pressure, precipitation, and wind speed were the key influencing factors of flash droughts and that the most important period in terms of inducing flash droughts is one pentad before the onset of flash drought. The outbreak rate and threshold of key influencing factors are the driving conditions for inducing flash droughts, and the recovery rate can be used as the basis for predicting whether an flash drought will evolve into a seasonal drought. The results showed that the characteristics and driving conditions of flash droughts are different in different types of grasslands and different time periods and are different for different types of flash droughts. In the future, the impact of flash droughts will become more severe.

A reversal in global occurrences of flash drought around 2000 identified by rapid changes in the standardized evaporative stress ratio

Flash drought is characterized by a rapid rate of onset and intensification within a few weeks. It usually accompanies exhausted soil moisture and high-temperature stress and exerts detrimental impacts on the growth of crops and the ecosystem. However, the global occurrence characteristics of flash drought in the recent four decades remain unclear. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal variability of flash drought identified by rapid decreases in the standardized evaporative stress ratio (SESR) from 1981 to 2020 and investigates their meteorological drivers. Results show that the flash drought mainly occurred in middle and low latitude areas. The coverage of flash drought showed a statistically significant decrease during 1981-2020. With the year of 2000 as a turning point, the coverage of flash drought trend reversed from a significant decline to a significant rise. Flash drought has no noticeable seasonal change. With the increase of the intensity of flash drought, the proportion of flash drought gradually decreased. Slight flash drought (FD_1; 50.9 %) is seven times of extreme flash drought (FD_4). The analysis of the evolution of hydro-meteorological variables concurrent with the global flash drought shows that flash drought was more triggered by abnormally low precipitation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and high temperature. In addition, the anomaly gradually increases with the increase of intensity. Water deficit is an important factor affecting the occurrence of flash drought, and only 10.9 % of flash drought events occurred in both positive soil moisture and precipitation anomalies. The results reference future research on flash drought on various spatial scales under a changing climate.

The features of regional flash droughts in four typical areas over China and the possible mechanisms

Flash droughts have severe impacts on the society and environment due to the sudden onset. Most studies focused on the definitions of flash droughts but rarely investigated the mechanisms. This study investigated the variation of the regional flash droughts in China and the possible mechanisms. The results show that the 6-pentads flash droughts show more regional characteristics, particularly for southwestern China (SWC), the northeastern China (NEC), the northwestern China (NWC), and the middle reaches of the Yellow River (MRYRC) during 2000-2018. The frequency of flash droughts decreases in SWC and increases in NWC, but shows no significant change in NEC and MRYRC. From the perspective of water supply factors and energy supply factors, the possible mechanisms have been further proposed. Since it is abundant of radiation energy in NWC, the potential evaporation is high, but evapotranspiration is low in normal circumstance. Thus, before the onset of a flash drought event, precipitation is needed to increase the soil moisture and then raise the evapotranspiration. Such growth can keep positive anomalies of evapotranspiration during the event. In contrast, the abundant soil moisture in SWC means only the excessive anomaly of potential evaporation triggered by shortwave radiation and temperature is required to support evapotranspiration raising during a flash drought event. Such growth of evapotranspiration can lead to a greater soil water deficit. However, soil moisture content in both NEC and MRYRC is less than that in SWC and radiation energy is less than that in NWC, so the evolution of evapotranspiration is similar to that in NWC, but the need for high potential evaporation is similar to that in SWC. The results of this study can improve our understanding of causal mechanisms of flash drought.

Remote sensing of the impact of flash drought events on terrestrial carbon dynamics over China

BACKGROUND

Flash drought poses a great threat to terrestrial ecosystems and influences carbon dynamics due to its unusually rapid onset and increasing frequency in a warming climate. Understanding the response of regional terrestrial carbon dynamics to flash drought requires long-term observations of carbon fluxes and soil moisture at a large scale. Here, MODIS satellite observations of ecosystem productivity and ERA5 reanalysis modeling of soil moisture are used to detect the response of ecosystems to flash drought over China.

RESULTS

The results show that GPP, NPP, and LAI respond to 79-86% of the flash drought events over China, with highest and lowest response frequency for NPP and LAI, respectively. The discrepancies in the response of GPP, NPP, and LAI to flash drought result from vegetation physiological and structural changes. The negative anomalies of GPP, NPP, and LAI occur within 19 days after the start of flash drought, with the fastest response occurring over North China, and slower responses in southern and northeastern China. Water use efficiency (WUE) is increased in most regions of China except for western regions during flash drought, illustrating the resilience of ecosystems to rapid changes in soil moisture conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows the rapid response of ecosystems to flash drought based on remote-sensing observations, especially for northern China with semiarid climates. Besides, NPP is more sensitive than GPP and LAI to flash drought under the influence of vegetation respiration and physiological regulations. Although the mean WUE increases during flash drought over most of China, western China shows less resilience to flash drought with little changes in WUE during the recovery stage. This study highlights the impacts of flash drought on ecosystems and the necessity to monitor rapid drought intensification.

Flash droughts in the Pearl River Basin, China: Observed characteristics and future changes

Heat wave flash drought or precipitation deficit flash drought has devastating impacts on society and the environment. This study explored the historical changes (1960-2015) of the two categories of flash drought over the Pearl River Basin (PRB) in China, and revealed how they would change in the future (2016-2100), by coupling the variable infiltration capacity mode with the global climate model under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios. Our results indicate that during 1960-2015, the mid-northern PRB has experienced heat wave flash drought frequently while the western PRB suffered from precipitation deficit flash drought. In future, heat wave flash drought under RCP2.6 and 4.5 would occur mostly in the western and eastern PRB. Specifically, heat wave flash drought would become severe under RCP8.5, especially for the eastern PRB. However, precipitation deficit flash drought would be concentrated in the western PRB. Except for the central regions, PRB generally exhibits a significant upward trend in heat wave flash drought under RCP4.5. Under RCP8.5, distinct increases in both categories of flash drought across almost the whole PRB are expected. For precipitation deficit flash drought, only a few regions show significant upward trends under RCP2.6 and 4.5.