Impact of weather seasonality and sexual transmission on the spread of Zika fever

Unraveling flavivirus pathogenesis: from bulk to single-cell RNA-sequencing strategies

The global spread of flaviviruses has triggered major outbreaks worldwide, significantly impacting public health, society, and economies. This has intensified research efforts to understand how flaviviruses interact with their hosts and manipulate the immune system, underscoring the need for advanced research tools. RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq) technologies have revolutionized our understanding of flavivirus infections by offering transcriptome analysis to dissect the intricate dynamics of virus-host interactions. Bulk RNA-seq provides a macroscopic overview of gene expression changes in virus-infected cells, offering insights into infection mechanisms and host responses at the molecular level. Single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNAseq) provides unprecedented resolution by analyzing individual infected cells, revealing remarkable cellular heterogeneity within the host response. A particularly innovative advancement, virus-inclusive single-cell RNA sequencing (viscRNA-seq), addresses the challenges posed by non-polyadenylated flavivirus genomes, unveiling intricate details of virus-host interactions. In this review, we discuss the contributions of bulk RNA-seq, scRNA-seq, and viscRNA-seq to the field, exploring their implications in cell line experiments and studies on patients infected with various flavivirus species. Comprehensive transcriptome analyses from RNA-seq technologies are pivotal in accelerating the development of effective diagnostics and therapeutics, paving the way for innovative treatments and enhancing our preparedness for future outbreaks.

Seroprevalence of Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika at the epicenter of the congenital microcephaly epidemic in Northeast Brazil: A population-based survey

BACKGROUND

The four Dengue viruses (DENV) serotypes were re-introduced in Brazil's Northeast region in a couple of decades, between 1980's and 2010's, where the DENV1 was the first detected serotype and DENV4 the latest. Zika (ZIKV) and Chikungunya (CHIKV) viruses were introduced in Recife around 2014 and led to large outbreaks in 2015 and 2016, respectively. However, the true extent of the ZIKV and CHIKV outbreaks, as well as the risk factors associated with exposure to these viruses remain vague.

METHODS

We conducted a stratified multistage household serosurvey among residents aged between 5 and 65 years in the city of Recife, Northeast Brazil, from August 2018 to February 2019. The city neighborhoods were stratified and divided into high, intermediate, and low socioeconomic strata (SES). Previous ZIKV, DENV and CHIKV infections were detected by IgG-based enzyme linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA). Recent ZIKV and CHIKV infections were assessed through IgG3 and IgM ELISA, respectively. Design-adjusted seroprevalence were estimated by age group, sex, and SES. The ZIKV seroprevalence was adjusted to account for the cross-reactivity with dengue. Individual and household-related risk factors were analyzed through regression models to calculate the force of infection. Odds Ratio (OR) were estimated as measure of effect.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

A total of 2,070 residents' samples were collected and analyzed. The force of viral infection for high SES were lower as compared to low and intermediate SES. DENV seroprevalence was 88.7% (CI95%:87.0-90.4), and ranged from 81.2% (CI95%:76.9-85.6) in the high SES to 90.7% (CI95%:88.3-93.2) in the low SES. The overall adjusted ZIKV seroprevalence was 34.6% (CI95%:20.0-50.9), and ranged from 47.4% (CI95%:31.8-61.5) in the low SES to 23.4% (CI95%:12.2-33.8) in the high SES. The overall CHIKV seroprevalence was 35.7% (CI95%:32.6-38.9), and ranged from 38.6% (CI95%:33.6-43.6) in the low SES to 22.3% (CI95%:15.8-28.8) in the high SES. Surprisingly, ZIKV seroprevalence rapidly increased with age in the low and intermediate SES, while exhibited only a small increase with age in high SES. CHIKV seroprevalence according to age was stable in all SES. The prevalence of serological markers of ZIKV and CHIKV recent infections were 1.5% (CI95%:0.1-3.7) and 3.5% (CI95%:2.7-4.2), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results confirmed continued DENV transmission and intense ZIKV and CHIKV transmission during the 2015/2016 epidemics followed by ongoing low-level transmission. The study also highlights that a significant proportion of the population is still susceptible to be infected by ZIKV and CHIKV. The reasons underlying a ceasing of the ZIKV epidemic in 2017/18 and the impact of antibody decay in susceptibility to future DENV and ZIKV infections may be related to the interplay between disease transmission mechanism and actual exposure in the different SES.

Multiobjective optimization to assess dengue control costs using a climate-dependent epidemiological model

Arboviruses, diseases transmitted by arthropods, have become a significant challenge for public health managers. The World Health Organization highlights dengue as responsible for millions of infections worldwide annually. As there is no specific treatment for the disease and no free-of-charge vaccine for mass use in Brazil, the best option is the measures to combat the vector, the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Therefore, we proposed an epidemiological model dependent on temperature, precipitation, and humidity, considering symptomatic and asymptomatic dengue infections. Through computer simulations, we aimed to minimize the amount of insecticides and the social cost demanded to treat patients. We proposed a case study in which our model is fitted with real data from symptomatic dengue-infected humans in an epidemic year in a Brazilian city. Our multiobjective optimization model considers an additional control using larvicide, adulticide, and ultra-low volume spraying. The work's main contribution is studying the monetary cost of the actions to combat the vector demand versus the hospital cost per confirmed infected, comparing approaches with and without additional control. Results showed that the additional vector control measures are cheaper than the hospital treatment without the vector control would be.

Antiviral Evaluation of New Synthetic Bioconjugates Based on GA-Hecate: A New Class of Antivirals Targeting Different Steps of Zika Virus Replication

Re-emerging arboviruses represent a serious health problem due to their rapid vector-mediated spread, mainly in urban tropical areas. The 2013-2015 Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in South and Central America has been associated with cases of microcephaly in newborns and Guillain-Barret syndrome. We previously showed that the conjugate gallic acid-Hecate (GA-FALALKALKKALKKLKKALKKAL-CONH2)-is an efficient inhibitor of the hepatitis C virus. Here, we show that the Hecate peptide is degraded in human blood serum into three major metabolites. These metabolites conjugated with gallic acid were synthesized and their effect on ZIKV replication in cultured cells was evaluated. The GA-metabolite 5 (GA-FALALKALKKALKKL-COOH) was the most efficient in inhibiting two ZIKV strains of African and Asian lineage at the stage of both virus entry (virucidal and protective) and replication (post-entry). We also demonstrate that GA-metabolite 5 does not affect cell growth after 7 days of continuous treatment. Thus, this study identifies a new synthetic antiviral compound targeting different steps of ZIKV replication in vitro and with the potential for broad reactivity against other flaviviruses. Our work highlights a promising strategy for the development of new antivirals based on peptide metabolism and bioconjugation.

Dynamics and optimal control of a Zika model with sexual and vertical transmissions

A new transmission model of Zika virus with three transmission routes including human transmission by mosquito bites, sexual transmission between males and females and vertical transmission is established. The basic reproduction number $ R_{0} $ is derived. When $ R_{0} < 1 $, it is proved that the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable. Furthermore, the optimal control and mitigation methods for transmission of Zika virus are deduced and explored. The MCMC method is used to estimate the parameters and the reasons for the deviation between the actual infection cases and the simulated data are discussed. In addition, different strategies for controlling the spread of Zika virus are simulated and studied. The combination of mosquito control strategies and internal human control strategies is the most effective way in reducing the risk of Zika virus infection.

Interferon Epsilon Signaling Confers Attenuated Zika Replication in Human Vaginal Epithelial Cells

Zika virus (ZIKV) is an emerging flavivirus that causes congenital birth defects and neurological compilations in the human host. Although ZIKV is primarily transmitted through infected mosquitos, recent studies reveal sexual contact as a potential transmission route. In vagina-bearing individuals, the vaginal epithelium constitutes the first line of defense against viruses. However, it is unclear how ZIKV interacts with the vaginal epithelium to initiate ZIKV transmission. In this study, we demonstrate that exposing ZIKV to human vaginal epithelial cells (hVECs) resulted in de novo viral RNA replication, increased envelope viral protein production, and a steady, extracellular release of infectious viral particles. Interestingly, our data show that, despite an increase in viral load, the hVECs did not exhibit significant cytopathology in culture as other cell types typically do. Furthermore, our data reveal that the innate antiviral state of hVECs plays a crucial role in preventing viral cytopathology. For the first time, our data show that interferon epsilon inhibits ZIKV replication. Collectively, our results in this study provide a novel perspective on the viral susceptibility and replication dynamics during ZIKV infection in the human vaginal epithelium. These findings will be instrumental towards developing therapeutic agents aimed at eliminating the pathology caused by the virus.

Knowledge about clinical presentation, prevention strategies and sexual transmission of Zika virus infection among women of reproductive age in an endemic area

Background

The recognition of the causal association between Zika virus (ZIKV) infection during pregnancy and congenital abnormalities including microcephaly underlines the importance of preventing this disease in pregnant women (PW) and women of childbearing age (WCA). Although Brazil and other Latin American countries reported a significant reduction in the number of ZIKV infections in recent years, epidemic waves can recur in settings with previous outbreaks as conditions for transmission remain optimal and susceptible populations are continuously replenished.

Methods

In this cross-sectional study, we enrolled 64 PW and 260 non-pregnant WCA attending routine medical appointments in two primary care units in Sao Paulo, Brazil, and assessed knowledge and attitudes about ZIKV infection and prevention.

Results

Most women reported knowing that ZIKV is transmitted through the bite of Aedes mosquitos, and most knew that acute symptoms are similar to those seen in Dengue infection. Furthermore, most participants correctly described that ZIKV infection during pregnancy may cause detrimental outcomes for the newborn. However, most ignored that ZIKV infection can be asymptomatic, and only 15% knew about the risk of ZIKV sexual transmission. We found no statistically significant differences between PW and WCA regarding knowledge about ZIKV sexual transmission. Knowledge about ZIKV sexual transmission was significantly associated with education; among participants with ≤12 schooling years, only 9.0% (95%CI 3.4-18.5%) correctly answered that ZIKV can be sexually transmitted, compared to 12.9% (95%CI 8.2-18.8%) among participants with 12-14 schooling years, and to 24.4% (95%CI 15.9-34.9%) of participants with ≥15 schooling years (p = 0.015). Education remained independently associated with knowledge about sexual transmission of ZIKV in a multivariate logistic regression model adjusted for age, race and pregnancy status (p = 0.022).

Conclusion

Our findings underscore the urgent need of educational and family planning programs that may help prevent detrimental outcomes of ZIKV infection in an endemic area of Brazil.

A seasonal model to assess intervention strategies for preventing periodic recurrence of Lassa fever

Lassa haemorrhagic fever is listed in WHO's Blueprint priority list of diseases and pathogens prioritized for research and development, affecting several hundreds of thousands of people each year. Lassa fever is spread via infected Natal multimammate mice and also through human-to-human contacts and it is a particular threat to pregnant women. Despite its importance, relatively few mathematical models have been established for modelling Lassa fever transmission up to now. We establish and study a new compartmental model for Lassa fever transmission including asymptomatic carriers, quarantine and periodic coefficients to model annual weather changes. We determine parameter values providing the best fit to data from Nigerian states Edo and Ondo from 2018–20. We perform uncertainty analysis and PRCC analysis to assess the importance of different parameters and numerical simulations to estimate the possible effects of control measures in eradicating the disease. The results suggest that the most important parameter which might be subject of control measures is death rate of mice, while mouse-to-human and human-to-human transmission rates also significantly influence the number of infected. However, decreasing the latter two parameters seems insufficient to eradicate the disease, while a parallel application of decreasing transmission rates and increasing mouse death rate might be able to stop the epidemic.

Public health messages on arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti in Brazil

BACKGROUND

The outbreak of Zika virus in Brazil in 2015 followed the arrival of chikungunya in 2014 and a long history of dengue circulation. Vital to the response to these outbreaks of mosquito-borne pathogens has been the dissemination of public health messages, including those promoted through risk communication posters. This study explores the content of a sample of posters circulated in Brazil towards the end of the Zika epidemic in 2017 and analyses their potential effectiveness in inducing behaviour change.

METHODS

A content analysis was performed on 37 posters produced in Brazil to address outbreaks of mosquito-borne pathogens. The six variables of the Health Belief Model were used to assess the potential effectiveness of the posters to induce behaviour change.

RESULTS

Three overarching key messages emerged from the posters. These included (i) the arboviruses and their outcomes, (ii) a battle against the mosquito, and (iii) a responsibility to protect and prevent. Among the six variables utilised through the Health Belief Model, cues to action were most commonly featured, whilst the perceived benefits of engaging in behaviours to prevent arbovirus transmission were the least commonly featured.

CONCLUSIONS

The posters largely focused on mosquito-borne transmission and the need to eliminate breeding sites, and neglected the risk of the sexual and congenital transmission of Zika and the importance of alternative preventive actions. This, we argue, may have limited the potential effectiveness of these posters to induce behaviour change.

Threshold Dynamics in a Model for Zika Virus Disease with Seasonality

We present a compartmental population model for the spread of Zika virus disease including sexual and vectorial transmission as well as asymptomatic carriers. We apply a non-autonomous model with time-dependent mosquito birth, death and biting rates to integrate the impact of the periodicity of weather on the spread of Zika. We define the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] as the spectral radius of a linear integral operator and show that the global dynamics is determined by this threshold parameter: If [Formula: see text] then the disease-free periodic solution is globally asymptotically stable, while if [Formula: see text] then the disease persists. We show numerical examples to study what kind of parameter changes might lead to a periodic recurrence of Zika.

The effects of flooding and weather conditions on leptospirosis transmission in Thailand

The epidemic of leptospirosis in humans occurs annually in Thailand. In this study, we have developed mathematical models to investigate transmission dynamics between humans, animals, and a contaminated environment. We compared different leptospire transmission models involving flooding and weather conditions, shedding and multiplication rate in a contaminated environment. We found that the model in which the transmission rate depends on both flooding and temperature, best-fits the reported human data on leptospirosis in Thailand. Our results indicate that flooding strongly contributes to disease transmission, where a high degree of flooding leads to a higher number of infected individuals. Sensitivity analysis showed that the transmission rate of leptospires from a contaminated environment was the most important parameter for the total number of human cases. Our results suggest that public education should target people who work in contaminated environments to prevent Leptospira infections.

Modeling, Control, and Prediction of the Spread of COVID-19 Using Compartmental, Logistic, and Gauss Models: A Case Study in Iraq and Egypt

In this paper, we study and investigate the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Iraq and Egypt by using compartmental, logistic regression, and Gaussian models. We developed a generalized SEIR model for the spread of COVID-19, taking into account mildly and symptomatically infected individuals. The logistic and Gaussian models were utilized to forecast and predict the numbers of confirmed cases in both countries. We estimated the parameters that best fit the incidence data. The results provide discouraging forecasts for Iraq from 22 February to 8 October 2020 and for Egypt from 15 February to 8 October 2020. To provide a forecast of the spread of COVID-19 in Iraq, we present various simulation scenarios for the expected peak and its timing using Gaussian and logistic regression models, where the predicted cases showed a reasonable agreement with the officially reported cases. We apply our compartmental model with a time-periodic transmission rate to predict the possible start of the second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Egypt and the possible control measures. Our sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number allow us to conclude that the most effective way to prevent COVID-19 cases is by decreasing the transmission rate. The findings of this study could therefore assist Iraqi and Egyptian officials to intervene with the appropriate safety measures to cope with the increase of COVID-19 cases.