Fine-tuning of Genome-Wide Polygenic Risk Scores and Prediction of Gestational Diabetes in South Asian Women

Unveiling Gestational Diabetes: An Overview of Pathophysiology and Management

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is characterized by an inadequate pancreatic β-cell response to pregnancy-induced insulin resistance, resulting in hyperglycemia. The pathophysiology involves reduced incretin hormone secretion and signaling, specifically decreased glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) and glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP), impairing insulinotropic effects. Pro-inflammatory cytokines, including tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) and interleukin-6 (IL-6), impair insulin receptor substrate-1 (IRS-1) phosphorylation, disrupting insulin-mediated glucose uptake. β-cell dysfunction in GDM is associated with decreased pancreatic duodenal homeobox 1 (PDX1) expression, increased endoplasmic reticulum stress markers (CHOP, GRP78), and mitochondrial dysfunction leading to impaired ATP production and reduced glucose-stimulated insulin secretion. Excessive gestational weight gain exacerbates insulin resistance through hyperleptinemia, which downregulates insulin receptor expression via JAK/STAT signaling. Additionally, hypoadiponectinemia decreases AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK) activation in skeletal muscle, impairing GLUT4 translocation. Placental hormones such as human placental lactogen (hPL) induce lipolysis, increasing circulating free fatty acids which activate protein kinase C, inhibiting insulin signaling. Placental 11β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 1 (11β-HSD1) overactivity elevates cortisol levels, which activate glucocorticoid receptors to further reduce insulin sensitivity. GDM diagnostic thresholds (≥92 mg/dL fasting, ≥153 mg/dL post-load) are lower than type 2 diabetes to prevent fetal hyperinsulinemia and macrosomia. Management strategies focus on lifestyle modifications, including dietary carbohydrate restriction and exercise. Pharmacological interventions, such as insulin or metformin, aim to restore AMPK signaling and reduce hepatic glucose output. Emerging therapies, such as glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor (GLP-1R) agonists, show potential in improving glycemic control and reducing inflammation. A mechanistic understanding of GDM pathophysiology is essential for developing targeted therapeutic strategies to prevent both adverse pregnancy outcomes and the progression to overt diabetes in affected women.

2025 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics: A Report of US and Global Data From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association (AHA), in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, nutrition, sleep, and obesity) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, glucose control, and metabolic syndrome) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The AHA Heart Disease and Stroke Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, brain health, complications of pregnancy, kidney disease, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, sudden cardiac arrest, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, cardiomyopathy, heart failure, valvular disease, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The AHA, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States and globally to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2025 AHA Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2024 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and AHA staff members. This year's edition includes a continued focus on health equity across several key domains and enhanced global data that reflect improved methods and incorporation of ≈3000 new data sources since last year's Statistical Update.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Identification and Potential Clinical Utility of Common Genetic Variants in Gestational Diabetes among Chinese Pregnant Women

BACKGRUOUND

The genetic basis for hyperglycaemia in pregnancy remain unclear. This study aimed to uncover the genetic determinants of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and investigate their applications.

METHODS

We performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for GDM in Chinese women (464 cases and 1,217 controls), followed by de novo replications in an independent Chinese cohort (564 cases and 572 controls) and in silico replication in European (12,332 cases and 131,109 controls) and multi-ethnic populations (5,485 cases and 347,856 controls). A polygenic risk score (PRS) was derived based on the identified variants.

RESULTS

Using the genome-wide scan and candidate gene approaches, we identified four susceptibility loci for GDM. These included three previously reported loci for GDM and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) at MTNR1B (rs7945617, odds ratio [OR], 1.64; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.38 to 1.96), CDKAL1 (rs7754840, OR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.13 to 1.58), and INS-IGF2-KCNQ1 (rs2237897, OR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.23 to 1.79), as well as a novel genome-wide significant locus near TBR1-SLC4A10 (rs117781972, OR, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.61 to 2.62; Pmeta=7.6×10-9), which has not been previously reported in GWAS for T2DM or glycaemic traits. Moreover, we found that women with a high PRS (top quintile) had over threefold (95% CI, 2.30 to 4.09; Pmeta=3.1×10-14) and 71% (95% CI, 1.08 to 2.71; P=0.0220) higher risk for GDM and abnormal glucose tolerance post-pregnancy, respectively, compared to other individuals.

CONCLUSION

Our results indicate that the genetic architecture of glucose metabolism exhibits both similarities and differences between the pregnant and non-pregnant states. Integrating genetic information can facilitate identification of pregnant women at a higher risk of developing GDM or later diabetes.

Understanding the impact of maternal and infant nutrition on infant/child health: multiethnic considerations, knowledge translation, and future directions for equitable health research

A mother's intrauterine environment influences her health and that of her offspring, at birth and in the future. Herein, we present an overview of our Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR)-funded grant "Understanding the impact of maternal and infant nutrition on infant/child health"-set within The NutriGen Birth Cohort Alliance. NutriGen is a consortium of four Canadian prospective birth cohorts representing >5000 mother-child pairs of diverse ethnic groups including South Asians, White Europeans, and Indigenous peoples. We summarize our objectives and main findings on outcomes of maternal diet, gestational diabetes, birth weight, cardiometabolic health, the microbiome, and epigenetic modifications. We append this work with 10 key messages when conducting multiethnic research and review our knowledge translation products. We describe the clinical impact of our research on maternal and child health and conclude with future directions on biomarker discovery, expansion to other ethnic groups, and interventions for high-risk populations.

Gestational Diabetes and Subsequent Metabolic Dysfunction: An National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Analysis (2011-2018)

Background: Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) complicates ∼10% of pregnancies, with the highest rates among Asian women. Evidence suggests that GDM is associated with an increased risk for future chronic health conditions, yet data for Asian women are sparse. We explored the association between prior GDM and metabolic dysfunction with nationally representative data to obtain Asian-specific estimates. Methods: For this cross-sectional study, data were drawn from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey for 7195 women with a prior pregnancy. GDM (yes/no) was defined using the question "During pregnancy, were you ever told by a doctor or other health professional that you had diabetes, sugar diabetes, or gestational diabetes?." Current metabolic dysfunction (yes/no) was based on having at least one of four indicators: systolic blood pressure (SBP, ≥130 mmHg), waist circumference (≥88 cm), high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol (<50 mg/dL), and glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) (≥6.5%). Logistic regression estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between prior GDM and metabolic outcomes, overall and by race. Models included sampling weights and demographic and behavioral factors. Results: Overall, women with prior GDM had 46% greater odds of high waist circumference (OR: 1.5; 95% CI: 1.1-2.0) and 200% greater odds (OR: 3.0; 95% CI: 2.1-4.2) of high HbA1c. Prior GDM was not associated with high blood pressure or low HDL cholesterol. In race-specific analyses, prior GDM was associated with increased risk of elevated HbA1c among Asian (OR: 6.6; 95% CI: 2.5-17.2), Mexican American (OR: 3.0; 95% CI: 1.5-5.8), Black (OR: 3.0; 95% CI: 1.7-5.5), and White (OR: 2.6; 95% CI: 1.5-4.6) women. Prior GDM was associated with elevated SBP among Mexican American women and low HDL among Black women. Discussion: Prior GDM is associated with elevated HbA1c among all women, yet is a stronger predictor of elevated HbA1c among Asian women than other women. Race-specific associations between prior GDM and metabolic dysfunction were observed among Mexican American and Black women. Further research is warranted to understand the observed race/ethnic-specific associations.

A Simplified Screening Model to Predict the Risk of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus in Caucasian and Latin American Pregnant Women

The pathophysiology of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) comprises clinical and genetic factors. In fact, GDM is associated with several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). This study aimed to build a prediction model of GDM combining clinical and genetic risk factors. A total of 1588 pregnant women from the San Carlos Cohort participated in the present study, including 1069 (67.3%) Caucasian (CAU) and 519 (32.7%) Latin American (LAT) individuals, and 255 (16.1%) had GDM. The incidence of GDM was similar in both groups (16.1% CAU and 16.0% LAT). Genotyping was performed via IPLEX Mass ARRAY PCR, selecting 110 SNPs based on literature references. SNPs showing the strongest likelihood of developing GDM were rs10830963, rs7651090, and rs1371614 in CAU and rs1387153 and rs9368222 in LAT. Clinical variables, including age, pre-pregnancy body mass index, and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) at 12 gestational weeks, predicted the risk of GDM (AUC 0.648, 95% CI 0.601-0.695 in CAU; AUC 0.688, 95% CI 0.628-9.748 in LAT), and adding SNPs modestly improved prediction (AUC 0.722, 95%CI 0.680-0.764 in CAU; AUC 0.769, 95% CI 0.711-0.826 in LAT). In conclusion, adding genetic variants enhanced the prediction model of GDM risk in CAU and LAT pregnant women.

2024 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics: A Report of US and Global Data From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association (AHA), in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, nutrition, sleep, and obesity) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, glucose control, and metabolic syndrome) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The AHA Heart Disease and Stroke Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, brain health, complications of pregnancy, kidney disease, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, sudden cardiac arrest, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, cardiomyopathy, heart failure, valvular disease, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The AHA, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States and globally to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2024 AHA Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2023 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and AHA staff members. The AHA strives to further understand and help heal health problems inflicted by structural racism, a public health crisis that can significantly damage physical and mental health and perpetuate disparities in access to health care, education, income, housing, and several other factors vital to healthy lives. This year's edition includes additional global data, as well as data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, with an enhanced focus on health equity across several key domains.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Gestational diabetes mellitus: genetic factors, epigenetic alterations, and microbial composition

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is a common metabolic disorder, usually diagnosed during the third trimester of pregnancy that usually disappears after delivery. In GDM, the excess of glucose, fatty acids, and amino acids results in foetuses large for gestational age. Hyperglycaemia and insulin resistance accelerate the metabolism, raising the oxygen demand, and creating chronic hypoxia and inflammation. Women who experienced GDM and their offspring are at risk of developing type-2 diabetes, obesity, and other metabolic or cardiovascular conditions later in life. Genetic factors may predispose the development of GDM; however, they do not account for all GDM cases; lifestyle and diet also play important roles in GDM development by modulating epigenetic signatures and the body's microbial composition; therefore, this is a condition with a complex, multifactorial aetiology. In this context, we revised published reports describing GDM-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), DNA methylation and microRNA expression in different tissues (such as placenta, umbilical cord, adipose tissue, and peripheral blood), and microbial composition in the gut, oral cavity, and vagina from pregnant women with GDM, as well as the bacterial composition of the offspring. Altogether, these reports indicate that a number of SNPs are associated to GDM phenotypes and may predispose the development of the disease. However, extrinsic factors (lifestyle, nutrition) modulate, through epigenetic mechanisms, the risk of developing the disease, and some association exists between the microbial composition with GDM in an organ-specific manner. Genes, epigenetic signatures, and microbiota could be transferred to the offspring, increasing the possibility of developing chronic degenerative conditions through postnatal life.

Associations between a polygenic risk score and the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus in a Chinese population: a case-control study

Our objective was to construct a polygenic risk score (PRS) and assess its utility and effectiveness in predicting the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) in a Chinese population. We performed a case-control study involving 638 patients with GDM and 1,062 healthy controls. Genotyping was conducted utilizing a genome-wide association study (GWAS), and a PRS was constructed. We identified 12 susceptibility loci that exhibited significant associations with the risk of GDM at a p-value threshold of ≤5.0 × 10-8, of which four loci were newly discovered. A higher PRS was associated with an increased risk of GDM (OR: 1.44; 95% CI: 1.03, 2.01 for the highest quartile compared to the lowest quartile). The PRS demonstrated a clear linear relationship with the fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 1-hour postprandial glucose (1hPG), and 2-hour postprandial glucose (2hPG) levels. The maximally adjusted β coefficients and their corresponding 95% CIs were 0.181 (0.041, 0.320) for FPG, 0.225 (0.103, 0.346) for 1hPG, and 0.172 (0.036, 0.307) for 2hPG. Among the genetic variants examined, TCF7L2 rs7903146 displayed the strongest association with GDM risk (logOR = 0.18, p = 2.37 × 10-19), followed by ADAMTSL1 rs10963767 (logOR = 0.14, p = 3.58 × 10-15). The areas under the curve (AUCs) was significantly increased from 0.703 (0.678, 0.728) in the traditional risk factor model to 0.765 (0.741, 0.788) by including PRS. These findings indicate that pregnant women with a higher PRS could potentially derive considerable advantages from the implementation of a feasible PRS-based GDM screening program aimed at delivering precision prevention strategies within Chinese populations.

Genome-wide polygenic risk score for type 2 diabetes in Indian population

Genome-wide polygenic risk scores (PRS) for lifestyle disorders, like Type 2 Diabetes (T2D), are useful in identifying at-risk individuals early on in life, and to guide them towards healthier lifestyles. The current study was aimed at developing PRS for the Indian population using imputed genotype data from UK Biobank and testing the developed PRS on data from GenomegaDB of Indians living in India. 959 T2D cases and 2,818 controls were selected from Indian participants of UK Biobank to develop the PRS. Summary statistics available for South Asians, from the DIAMANTE consortium, were used to weigh genetic variants. LDpred2 algorithm was used to adjust the effect of linkage disequilibrium among the variants. The association of PRS with T2D, after adjusting for age, sex and top ten genetic principal components, was found to be very significant (AUC = 0.7953, OR = 2.9856 [95% CI: 2.7044-3.2961]). When participants were divided into four PRS quartile groups, the odds of developing T2D increased sequentially with the higher PRS groups. The highest PRS group (top 25%) showed 5.79 fold increased risk compared to the rest of the participants (75%). The PRS derived using the same set of variants was found to be significantly associated with T2D in the test dataset of 445 Indians (AUC = 0.7781, OR = 1.6656 [95%CI = 0.6127-4.5278]). Our study demonstrates a framework to derive Indian-specific PRS for T2D. The accuracy of the derived PRS shows it's potential to be used as a prognostic metric to stratify individuals, and to recommend personalized preventive strategies.

A culturally tailored personaliseD nutrition intErvention in South ASIan women at risk of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus (DESI-GDM): a randomised controlled trial protocol

INTRODUCTION

South Asians are more likely to develop gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) than white Europeans. Diet and lifestyle modifications may prevent GDM and reduce undesirable outcomes in both the mother and offspring. Our study seeks to evaluate the effectiveness and participant acceptability of a culturally tailored, personalised nutrition intervention on the glucose area under the curve (AUC) after a 2-hour 75 g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) in pregnant women of South Asian ancestry with GDM risk factors.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A total of 190 South Asian pregnant women with at least 2 of the following GDM risk factors-prepregnancy body mass index>23, age>29, poor-quality diet, family history of type 2 diabetes in a first-degree relative or GDM in a previous pregnancy will be enrolled during gestational weeks 12-18, and randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to: (1) usual care, plus weekly text messages to encourage walking and paper handouts or (2) a personalised nutrition plan developed and delivered by a culturally congruent dietitian and health coach; and FitBit to track steps. The intervention lasts 6-16 weeks, depending on week of recruitment. The primary outcome is the glucose AUC from a three-sample 75 g OGTT 24-28 weeks' gestation. The secondary outcome is GDM diagnosis, based on Born-in-Bradford criteria (fasting glucose>5.2 mmol/L or 2 hours post load>7.2 mmol/L).

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study has been approved by the Hamilton Integrated Research Ethics Board (HiREB #10942). Findings will be disseminated among academics and policy-makers through scientific publications along with community-orientated strategies.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03607799.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2023 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The American Heart Association, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2023 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2022 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. The American Heart Association strives to further understand and help heal health problems inflicted by structural racism, a public health crisis that can significantly damage physical and mental health and perpetuate disparities in access to health care, education, income, housing, and several other factors vital to healthy lives. This year's edition includes additional COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) publications, as well as data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, with an enhanced focus on health equity across several key domains.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

The genetic risk of gestational diabetes in South Asian women

South Asian women are at increased risk of developing gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). Few studies have investigated the genetic contributions to GDM risk. We investigated the association of a type 2 diabetes (T2D) polygenic risk score (PRS), on its own, and with GDM risk factors, on GDM-related traits using data from two birth cohorts in which South Asian women were enrolled during pregnancy. 837 and 4372 pregnant South Asian women from the SouTh Asian BiRth CohorT (START) and Born in Bradford (BiB) cohort studies underwent a 75-g glucose tolerance test. PRSs were derived using genome-wide association study results from an independent multi-ethnic study (~18% South Asians). Associations with fasting plasma glucose (FPG); 2 hr post-load glucose (2hG); area under the curve glucose; and GDM were tested using linear and logistic regressions. The population attributable fraction (PAF) of the PRS was calculated. Every 1 SD increase in the PRS was associated with a 0.085 mmol/L increase in FPG ([95% confidence interval, CI=0.07-0.10], p=2.85×10^-20); 0.21 mmol/L increase in 2hG ([95% CI=0.16-0.26], p=5.49×10^-16); and a 45% increase in the risk of GDM ([95% CI=32-60%], p=2.27×10^-14), independent of parental history of diabetes and other GDM risk factors. PRS tertile 3 accounted for 12.5% of the population's GDM alone, and 21.7% when combined with family history. A few weak PRS and GDM risk factors interactions modulating FPG and GDM were observed. Taken together, these results show that a T2D PRS and family history of diabetes are strongly and independently associated with multiple GDM-related traits in women of South Asian descent, an effect that could be modulated by other environmental factors.

Microbial risk score for capturing microbial characteristics, integrating multi-omics data, and predicting disease risk

BACKGROUND

With the rapid accumulation of microbiome-wide association studies, a great amount of microbiome data are available to study the microbiome's role in human disease and advance the microbiome's potential use for disease prediction. However, the unique features of microbiome data hinder its utility for disease prediction.

METHODS

Motivated from the polygenic risk score framework, we propose a microbial risk score (MRS) framework to aggregate the complicated microbial profile into a summarized risk score that can be used to measure and predict disease susceptibility. Specifically, the MRS algorithm involves two steps: (1) identifying a sub-community consisting of the signature microbial taxa associated with disease and (2) integrating the identified microbial taxa into a continuous score. The first step is carried out using the existing sophisticated microbial association tests and pruning and thresholding method in the discovery samples. The second step constructs a community-based MRS by calculating alpha diversity on the identified sub-community in the validation samples. Moreover, we propose a multi-omics data integration method by jointly modeling the proposed MRS and other risk scores constructed from other omics data in disease prediction.

RESULTS

Through three comprehensive real-data analyses using the NYU Langone Health COVID-19 cohort, the gut microbiome health index (GMHI) multi-study cohort, and a large type 1 diabetes cohort separately, we exhibit and evaluate the utility of the proposed MRS framework for disease prediction and multi-omics data integration. In addition, the disease-specific MRSs for colorectal adenoma, colorectal cancer, Crohn's disease, and rheumatoid arthritis based on the relative abundances of 5, 6, 12, and 6 microbial taxa, respectively, are created and validated using the GMHI multi-study cohort. Especially, Crohn's disease MRS achieves AUCs of 0.88 (0.85-0.91) and 0.86 (0.78-0.95) in the discovery and validation cohorts, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed MRS framework sheds light on the utility of the microbiome data for disease prediction and multi-omics integration and provides a great potential in understanding the microbiome's role in disease diagnosis and prognosis. Video Abstract.

Association of Genetic Predisposition and Physical Activity With Risk of Gestational Diabetes in Nulliparous Women

Importance

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) for type 2 diabetes (T2D) can improve risk prediction for gestational diabetes (GD), yet the strength of the association between genetic and lifestyle risk factors has not been quantified.

Objective

To assess the association of PRS and physical activity in existing GD risk models and identify patient subgroups who may receive the most benefits from a PRS or physical activity intervention.

Design, Settings, and Participants

The Nulliparous Pregnancy Outcomes Study: Monitoring Mothers-to-Be cohort was established to study individuals without previous pregnancy lasting at least 20 weeks (nulliparous) and to elucidate factors associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. A subcohort of 3533 participants with European ancestry was used for risk assessment and performance evaluation. Participants were enrolled from October 5, 2010, to December 3, 2013, and underwent genotyping between February 19, 2019, and February 28, 2020. Data were analyzed from September 15, 2020, to November 10, 2021.

Exposures

Self-reported total physical activity in early pregnancy was quantified as metabolic equivalents of task (METs). Polygenic risk scores were calculated for T2D using contributions of 84 single nucleotide variants, weighted by their association in the Diabetes Genetics Replication and Meta-analysis Consortium data.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Estimation of the development of GD from clinical, genetic, and environmental variables collected in early pregnancy, assessed using measures of model discrimination. Odds ratios and positive likelihood ratios were used to evaluate the association of PRS and physical activity with GD risk.

Results

A total of 3533 women were included in this analysis (mean [SD] age, 28.6 [4.9] years). In high-risk population subgroups (body mass index ≥25 or aged ≥35 years), individuals with high PRS (top 25th percentile) or low activity levels (METs <450) had increased odds of a GD diagnosis of 25% to 75%. Compared with the general population, participants with both high PRS and low activity levels had higher odds of a GD diagnosis (odds ratio, 3.4 [95% CI, 2.3-5.3]), whereas participants with low PRS and high METs had significantly reduced risk of a GD diagnosis (odds ratio, 0.5 [95% CI, 0.3-0.9]; P = .01).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study, the addition of PRS was associated with the stratified risk of GD diagnosis among high-risk patient subgroups, suggesting the benefits of targeted PRS ascertainment to encourage early intervention.

Microbial Risk Score for Capturing Microbial Characteristics, Integrating Multi-omics Data, and Predicting Disease Risk

Background

With the rapid accumulation of microbiome-wide association studies, a great amount of microbiome data are available to study the microbiome's role in human disease and advance the microbiome's potential use for disease prediction. However, the unique features of microbiome data hinder its utility for disease prediction.

Methods

Motivated from the polygenic risk score framework, we propose a microbial risk score (MRS) framework to aggregate the complicated microbial profile into a summarized risk score that can be used to measure and predict disease susceptibility. Specifically, the MRS algorithm involves two steps: 1) identifying a sub-community consisting of the signature microbial taxa associated with disease, and 2) integrating the identified microbial taxa into a continuous score. The first step is carried out using the existing sophisticated microbial association tests and pruning and thresholding method in the discovery samples. The second step constructs a community-based MRS by calculating alpha diversity on the identified sub-community in the validation samples. Moreover, we propose a multi-omics data integration method by jointly modeling the proposed MRS and other risk scores constructed from other omics data in disease prediction.

Results

Through three comprehensive real data analyses using the NYU Langone Health COVID-19 cohort, the gut microbiome health index (GMHI) multi-study cohort, and a large type 1 diabetes cohort separately, we exhibit and evaluate the utility of the proposed MRS framework for disease prediction and multi-omics data integration. In addition, the disease-specific MRSs for colorectal adenoma, colorectal cancer, Crohn's disease, and rheumatoid arthritis based on the relative abundances of 5, 6, 12, and 6 microbial taxa respectively are created and validated using the GMHI multi-study cohort. Especially, Crohn's disease MRS achieves AUCs of 0.88 ([0.85-0.91]) and 0.86 ([0.78-0.95]) in the discovery and validation cohorts, respectively.

Conclusions

The proposed MRS framework sheds light on the utility of the microbiome data for disease prediction and multi-omics integration, and provides great potential in understanding the microbiome's role in disease diagnosis and prognosis.

Integrating polygenic risk scores in the prediction of type 2 diabetes risk and subtypes in British Pakistanis and Bangladeshis: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is highly prevalent in British South Asians, yet they are underrepresented in research. Genes & Health (G&H) is a large, population study of British Pakistanis and Bangladeshis (BPB) comprising genomic and routine health data. We assessed the extent to which genetic risk for T2D is shared between BPB and European populations (EUR). We then investigated whether the integration of a polygenic risk score (PRS) for T2D with an existing risk tool (QDiabetes) could improve prediction of incident disease and the characterisation of disease subtypes.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

In this observational cohort study, we assessed whether common genetic loci associated with T2D in EUR individuals were replicated in 22,490 BPB individuals in G&H. We replicated fewer loci in G&H (n = 76/338, 22%) than would be expected given power if all EUR-ascertained loci were transferable (n = 101, 30%; p = 0.001). Of the 27 transferable loci that were powered to interrogate this, only 9 showed evidence of shared causal variants. We constructed a T2D PRS and combined it with a clinical risk instrument (QDiabetes) in a novel, integrated risk tool (IRT) to assess risk of incident diabetes. To assess model performance, we compared categorical net reclassification index (NRI) versus QDiabetes alone. In 13,648 patients free from T2D followed up for 10 years, NRI was 3.2% for IRT versus QDiabetes (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.0% to 4.4%). IRT performed best in reclassification of individuals aged less than 40 years deemed low risk by QDiabetes alone (NRI 5.6%, 95% CI 3.6% to 7.6%), who tended to be free from comorbidities and slim. After adjustment for QDiabetes score, PRS was independently associated with progression to T2D after gestational diabetes (hazard ratio (HR) per SD of PRS 1.23, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.42, p = 0.028). Using cluster analysis of clinical features at diabetes diagnosis, we replicated previously reported disease subgroups, including Mild Age-Related, Mild Obesity-related, and Insulin-Resistant Diabetes, and showed that PRS distribution differs between subgroups (p = 0.002). Integrating PRS in this cluster analysis revealed a Probable Severe Insulin Deficient Diabetes (pSIDD) subgroup, despite the absence of clinical measures of insulin secretion or resistance. We also observed differences in rates of progression to micro- and macrovascular complications between subgroups after adjustment for confounders. Study limitations include the absence of an external replication cohort and the potential biases arising from missing or incorrect routine health data.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis of the transferability of T2D loci between EUR and BPB indicates the need for larger, multiancestry studies to better characterise the genetic contribution to disease and its varied aetiology. We show that a T2D PRS optimised for this high-risk BPB population has potential clinical application in BPB, improving the identification of T2D risk (especially in the young) on top of an established clinical risk algorithm and aiding identification of subgroups at diagnosis, which may help future efforts to stratify care and treatment of the disease.

Genome-wide risk prediction of common diseases across ancestries in one million people

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) measure genetic disease susceptibility by combining risk effects across the genome. For coronary artery disease (CAD), type 2 diabetes (T2D), and breast and prostate cancer, we performed cross-ancestry evaluation of genome-wide PRSs in six biobanks in Europe, the United States, and Asia. We studied transferability of these highly polygenic, genome-wide PRSs across global ancestries, within European populations with different health-care systems, and local population substructures in a population isolate. All four PRSs had similar accuracy across European and Asian populations, with poorer transferability in the smaller group of individuals of African ancestry. The PRSs had highly similar effect sizes in different populations of European ancestry, and in early- and late-settlement regions with different recent population bottlenecks in Finland. Comparing genome-wide PRSs to PRSs containing a smaller number of variants, the highly polygenic, genome-wide PRSs generally displayed higher effect sizes and better transferability across global ancestries. Our findings indicate that in the populations investigated, the current genome-wide polygenic scores for common diseases have potential for clinical utility within different health-care settings for individuals of European ancestry, but that the utility in individuals of African ancestry is currently much lower.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2022 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The American Heart Association, through its Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update. The 2022 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. This year's edition includes data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population and an enhanced focus on social determinants of health, adverse pregnancy outcomes, vascular contributions to brain health, and the global burden of cardiovascular disease and healthy life expectancy.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Optimising Cardiometabolic Risk Factors in Pregnancy: A Review of Risk Prediction Models Targeting Gestational Diabetes and Hypertensive Disorders

Cardiovascular disease, especially coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease, is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity in women globally. The development of cardiometabolic conditions in pregnancy, such as gestational diabetes mellitus and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, portend an increased risk of future cardiovascular disease in women. Pregnancy therefore represents a unique opportunity to detect and manage risk factors, prior to the development of cardiovascular sequelae. Risk prediction models for gestational diabetes mellitus and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy can help identify at-risk women in early pregnancy, allowing timely intervention to mitigate both short- and long-term adverse outcomes. In this narrative review, we outline the shared pathophysiological pathways for gestational diabetes mellitus and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, summarise contemporary risk prediction models and candidate predictors for these conditions, and discuss the utility of these models in clinical application.

Genetic risk score to improve prediction and treatment in gestational diabetes mellitus

Diabetes mellitus is a chronic disease caused by the interaction of genetics and the environment that can lead to chronic damage to many organ systems. Genome-wide association studies have identified accumulating single-nucleotide polymorphisms related to type 2 diabetes mellitus and gestational diabetes mellitus. Genetic risk score (GRS) has been utilized to evaluate the incidence risk to improve prediction and optimize treatments. This article reviews the research progress in the use of the GRS in diabetes mellitus in recent years and discusses future prospects.

Studying the Utility of Using Genetics to Predict Smoking-Related Outcomes in a Population-Based Study and a Selected Cohort

INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this study is to examine the predictive utility of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for smoking behaviors.

AIMS AND METHODS

Using summary statistics from the Sequencing Consortium of Alcohol and Nicotine use consortium, we generated PRSs of ever smoking, age of smoking initiation, cigarettes smoked per day, and smoking cessation for participants in the population-based Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study (N = 8638), and the Collaborative Genetic Study of Nicotine Dependence (COGEND) (N = 1935). The outcomes were ever smoking, age of smoking initiation, heaviness of smoking, and smoking cessation.

RESULTS

In the European ancestry cohorts, each PRS was significantly associated with the corresponding smoking behavior outcome. In the ARIC cohort, the PRS z-score for ever smoking predicted smoking (odds ratio [OR]: 1.37; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.31, 1.43); the PRS z-score for age of smoking initiation was associated with age of smoking initiation (OR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.82, 0.92); the PRS z-score for cigarettes per day was associated with heavier smoking (OR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.11, 1.25); and the PRS z-score for smoking cessation predicted successful cessation (OR: 1.24; 95% CI: 1.17, 1.32). In the African ancestry cohort, the PRSs did not predict smoking behaviors.

CONCLUSIONS

Smoking-related PRSs were associated with smoking-related behaviors in European ancestry populations. This improvement in prediction is greatest in the lowest and highest genetic risk categories. The lack of prediction in African ancestry populations highlights the urgent need to increase diversity in research so that scientific advances can be applied to populations other than those of European ancestry.

IMPLICATIONS

This study shows that including both genetic ancestry and PRSs in a single model increases the ability to predict smoking behaviors compared with the model including only demographic characteristics. This finding is observed for every smoking-related outcome. Even though adding genetics is more predictive, the demographics alone confer substantial and meaningful predictive power. However, with increasing work in PRSs, the predictive ability will continue to improve.

Coordinated Expressional Landscape of the Human Placental miRNome and Transcriptome

Placenta is a unique organ that serves its own function, and contributes to maternal gestational adaptation and fetal development. Coordination of its transcriptome to satisfy all the maternal-fetal needs across gestation is not fully understood. MicroRNAs are powerful transcriptome modulators capable to adjust rapidly the expression level and dynamics of large gene sets. This MiR-Seq based study presents a multi-omics investigation of the human placental miRNome and its synergy with the transcriptome. The analysis included 52 placentas representing three trimesters of normal pregnancy, and term cases of late-onset preeclampsia (LO-PE), gestational diabetes and affected fetal growth. Gestational-age dependent differential expression (FDR < 0.05) was detected for 319 of 417 tested miRNAs (76.5%). A shared list of target genes of dynamic miRNAs suggested their coordinated action. The most abundant miR-143-3p revealed as a marker for pregnancy progression. The data suggested critical, but distinct roles of placenta-specific imprinted C19MC and C14MC miRNA clusters. Paternally encoded primate-specific C19MC was highly transcribed during first trimester, potentially fine-tuning the early placental transcriptome in dosage-sensitive manner. Maternally encoded eutherian C14MC showed high expression until term, underlining its key contribution across gestation. A major shift in placental miRNome (16% miRNAs) was observed in LO-PE, but not in other term pregnancy complications. Notably, 13/38 upregulated miRNAs were transcribed from C19MC and only one from C14MC, whereas 11/28 downregulated miRNAs represented C14MC and none C19MC. miR-210-3p, miR-512-5p, miR-32-5p, miR-19a-3p, miR-590-3p, miR-379-5p were differentially expressed in LO-PE and cases of small-for-gestational-age newborns, supporting a shared etiology. Expression correlation analysis with the RNA-Seq data (16,567 genes) of the same samples clustered PE-linked miRNAs into five groups. Large notable clusters of miRNA–gene pairs showing directly and inversely correlated expression dynamics suggested potential functional relationships in both scenarios. The first genome-wide study of placental miR-eQTLs identified 66 placental SNVs associated with the expression of neighboring miRNAs, including PE-linked miRNAs miR-30a-5p, miR-210-3p, miR-490-3p and miR-518-5p. This study provided a rich catalog of miRNAs for further in-depth investigations of their individual and joint effect on placental transcriptome. Several highlighted miRNAs may serve as potential biomarkers for pregnancy monitoring and targets to prevent or treat gestational disorders.

Personality traits relate to chronotype at both the phenotypic and genetic level

INTRODUCTION

Diurnal preferences have been linked to personality but often with mixed results. The present study examines the relationships between sleep timing (chronotype), diurnal preferences, and the Five-Factor Model of personality traits at the phenotypic and genetic level.

METHODS

Self- and informant-reports of the NEO Personality Inventory-3, self-reports of the Munich Chronotype Questionnaire, and DNA samples were available for 2,515 Estonian adults (M_age  = 45.76 years; 59% females). Genetic correlations were obtained through summary statistics of genome-wide association studies.

RESULTS

Results showed that higher Conscientiousness and lower Openness to Experience were significant predictors of earlier chronotype. At the level of facets, we found that more straightforward (A2) and excitement-seeking (E5), yet less self-disciplined (C5) people were more likely to have later chronotypes. The nuance-level Polypersonality score was correlated with chronotype at r = .28 (p < .001). Conscientiousness and Openness were genetically related with diurnal preferences. The polygenic score for morningness-eveningness significantly predicted the Polypersonality score.

CONCLUSION

Phenotypic measures of chronotype and personality showed significant associations at all three of levels of the personality hierarchy. Our findings indicate that the relationship between personality and morningness-eveningness is partly due to genetic factors. Future studies are necessary to further refine the relationship.

All thresholds of maternal hyperglycaemia from the WHO 2013 criteria for gestational diabetes identify women with a higher genetic risk for type 2 diabetes

Background: Using genetic scores for fasting plasma glucose (FPG GS) and type 2 diabetes (T2D GS), we investigated whether the fasting, 1-hour and 2-hour glucose thresholds from the WHO 2013 criteria for gestational diabetes (GDM) have different implications for genetic susceptibility to raised fasting glucose and type 2 diabetes in women from the Hyperglycemia and Adverse Pregnancy Outcome (HAPO) and Atlantic Diabetes in Pregnancy (DIP) studies. Methods: Cases were divided into three subgroups: (i) FPG ≥5.1 mmol/L only, n=222; (ii) 1-hour glucose post 75 g oral glucose load ≥10 mmol/L only, n=154 (iii) 2-hour glucose ≥8.5 mmol/L only, n=73; and (iv) both FPG ≥5.1 mmol/L and either of a 1-hour glucose ≥10 mmol/L or 2-hour glucose ≥8.5 mmol/L, n=172. We compared the FPG and T2D GS of these groups with controls (n=3,091) in HAPO and DIP separately. Results: In HAPO and DIP, the mean FPG GS in women with a FPG ≥5.1 mmol/L, either on its own or with 1-hour glucose ≥10 mmol/L or 2-hour glucose ≥8.5 mmol/L, was higher than controls (all P <0.01). Mean T2D GS in women with a raised FPG alone or with either a raised 1-hour or 2-hour glucose was higher than controls (all P <0.05). GDM defined by 1-hour or 2-hour hyperglycaemia only was also associated with a higher T2D GS than controls (all P <0.05). Conclusions: The different diagnostic categories that are part of the WHO 2013 criteria for GDM identify women with a genetic predisposition to type 2 diabetes as well as a risk for adverse pregnancy outcomes.

All thresholds of maternal hyperglycaemia from the WHO 2013 criteria for gestational diabetes identify women with a higher genetic risk for type 2 diabetes

Background: Using genetic scores for fasting plasma glucose (FPG GS) and type 2 diabetes (T2D GS), we investigated whether the fasting, 1-hour and 2-hour glucose thresholds from the WHO 2013 criteria for gestational diabetes (GDM) have different implications for genetic susceptibility to raised fasting glucose and type 2 diabetes in women from the Hyperglycemia and Adverse Pregnancy Outcome (HAPO) and Atlantic Diabetes in Pregnancy (DIP) studies. Methods: Cases were divided into three subgroups: (i) FPG ≥5.1 mmol/L only, n=222; (ii) 1-hour glucose post 75 g oral glucose load ≥10 mmol/L only, n=154 (iii) 2-hour glucose ≥8.5 mmol/L only, n=73; and (iv) both FPG ≥5.1 mmol/L and either of a 1-hour glucose ≥10 mmol/L or 2-hour glucose ≥8.5 mmol/L, n=172. We compared the FPG and T2D GS of these groups with controls (n=3,091) in HAPO and DIP separately. Results: In HAPO and DIP, the mean FPG GS in women with a FPG ≥5.1 mmol/L, either on its own or with 1-hour glucose ≥10 mmol/L or 2-hour glucose ≥8.5 mmol/L, was higher than controls (all P <0.01). Mean T2D GS in women with a raised FPG alone or with either a raised 1-hour or 2-hour glucose was higher than controls (all P <0.05). GDM defined by 1-hour or 2-hour hyperglycaemia only was also associated with a higher T2D GS than controls (all P <0.05). Conclusions: The different diagnostic categories that are part of the WHO 2013 criteria for GDM identify women with a genetic predisposition to type 2 diabetes as well as a risk for adverse pregnancy outcomes.