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Masson-Lecomte A, Birtle A, Pradere B, Capoun O, Compérat E, Domínguez-Escrig JL, Liedberg F, Makaroff L, Mariappan P, Moschini M, Rai BP, van Rhijn BWG, Shariat SF, Smith EJ, Teoh JYC, Soukup V, Wood R, Xylinas EN, Soria F, Seisen T, Gontero P. European Association of Urology Guidelines on Upper Urinary Tract Urothelial Carcinoma: Summary of the 2025 Update. Eur Urol 2025; 87:697-716. [PMID: 40118741 DOI: 10.1016/j.eururo.2025.02.023] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2025] [Accepted: 02/26/2025] [Indexed: 03/23/2025]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE We present a summary of the 2025 update for the European Association of Urology (EAU) guidelines for upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC). The aim is to provide practical recommendations on the clinical management of UTUC with a focus on diagnosis, treatment, and follow-up. METHODS For the 2025 guidelines on UTUC, new and relevant evidence was identified, collated, and appraised via a structured assessment of the literature. Databases searched included Medline, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Libraries. Recommendations within the guidelines were developed by the panel to prioritise clinically important care decisions. The strength of each recommendation was determined according to a balance between desirable and undesirable consequences of alternative management strategies, the quality of the evidence (including the certainty of estimates), and the nature and variability of patient values and preferences. KEY FINDINGS AND LIMITATIONS Key recommendations emphasise the importance of thorough diagnosis, treatment, and follow-up for patients with UTUC. The guidelines stress the importance of appropriate treatment taking into account patient values and preferences. Key updates in the 2025 UTUC guidelines include: significant changes to the recommendations for UTUC diagnosis; complete revision of the sections addressing risk stratification, ureteroscopy, and the surgical approach for radical nephroureterectomy; addition of four new recommendations, two related to kidney-sparing management of localised low-risk UTUC and a further two related to management of high-risk nonmetastatic UTUC; a review and adaptation of recommendation for UTUC follow-up; and addition of a new section addressing quality indicators for UTUC management. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS This overview of the 2025 EAU guidelines on UTUC offers valuable insights into risk factors, diagnosis, classification, treatment, and follow-up for UTUC. The guidelines contain information on the management of individual patients according to the current best evidence and are designed for effective integration in clinical practice.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Alison Birtle
- Rosemere Cancer Centre, Lancashire Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Preston, UK; University of Manchester, Manchester, UK; University of Central Lancashire, Preston, UK
| | - Benjamin Pradere
- Department of Urology, UROSUD, La Croix Du Sud Hospital, Quint Fonsegrives, France
| | - Otakar Capoun
- Department of Urology, General University Hospital and 1st Faculty of Medicine, Charles University Praha, Prague, Czechia
| | - Eva Compérat
- Department of Pathology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | | | - Fredrik Liedberg
- Institution of Translational Medicine, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden; Department of Urology, Skåne University Hospital, Malmö, Sweden
| | - Lydia Makaroff
- Fight Bladder Cancer, Chinnor, UK; World Bladder Cancer Patient Coalition, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Paramananthan Mariappan
- Edinburgh Bladder Cancer Surgery, University of Edinburgh, Western General Hospital, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Marco Moschini
- Division of Experimental Oncology/Unit of Urology, Urological Research Institute, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan, Italy
| | - Bhavan P Rai
- Department of Urology, Freeman Hospital, Newcastle upon Tyne Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
| | - Bas W G van Rhijn
- Department of Surgical Oncology (Urology), Netherlands Cancer Institute-Antoni van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Shahrokh F Shariat
- Department of Urology, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Vienna General Hospital, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Emma J Smith
- Guidelines Office, European Association of Urology, Arnhem, The Netherlands
| | - Jeremy Y C Teoh
- S.H. Ho Urology Centre, Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Viktor Soukup
- Department of Urology, General University Hospital and 1st Faculty of Medicine, Charles University Praha, Prague, Czechia
| | - Robert Wood
- Patient representative, European Association of Urology, Arnhem, The Netherlands
| | - Evanguelos N Xylinas
- Department of Urology, Bichat-Claude Bernard Hospital, AP-HP, Université de Paris, Paris, France
| | - Francesco Soria
- Department of Urology, Città della Salute e della Scienza, University of Torino School of Medicine, Torino, Italy
| | - Thomas Seisen
- GRC 5 Predictive Onco-Uro, Sorbonne University, Paris, France; Department of Urology, Pitie-Salpetriere Hospital, AP-HP, Paris, France
| | - Paolo Gontero
- Department of Urology, Città della Salute e della Scienza, University of Torino School of Medicine, Torino, Italy
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Zuo W, Zhang J, Xu L, Xiong G, Xu C, Tang Q, Li X, Zhou L. Clinical, Prognosis, and Treatment Effect Features Analysis of Metachronous and Synchronous UTUC and BUC. Clin Genitourin Cancer 2024; 22:102192. [PMID: 39261258 DOI: 10.1016/j.clgc.2024.102192] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2024] [Revised: 08/05/2024] [Accepted: 08/06/2024] [Indexed: 09/13/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To provide a comprehensive understanding of the clinical features of patients with synchronous and metachronous upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) and bladder urothelial carcinoma (BUC) and inform surgical and postoperative adjuvant treatment planning. PATIENTS AND METHOD A total of 292 consecutive patients with synchronous and metachronous UTUC-BUC were retrospectively enrolled and were categorized into three groups: (1) UTUC metachronous BUC (N = 185, UTUC-mBUC), (2) BUC-metachronous UTUC (N = 43, BUC-mUTUC), (3) synchronous UTUC-BUC (N = 64, sUTUC-BUC). We compared pathological characteristics and survival data among groups with Wilcoxon's rank sum tests, Pearson's chi-squared, and the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS In the sUTUC-BUC group, a higher proportion of patients exhibited UTUC tumors with grade G3 (56%, P = .001) and stage T4 (6%, P < .001) than group UTUC-mBUC (G3 = 16%, T4 = 0%). The proportion of patients with variant histology subtype in group sUTUC-BUC was higher than that of metachronous UTUC-BUC, involving squamous (P = .003), adenoid (P = .012), and sarcomatoid (P < .001) differentiation. It was also observed that the maximum diameter of the UTUC tumor of group sUTUC-BUC (median = 3.5) was significantly larger than group UTUC-mBUC (median = 2.5, P = .002) and group BUC-mUTUC (median = 2.2, P < .001). Notably, sUTUC-BUC has an increased risk of cancer-specific death compared with UTUC-mBUC (P < .001) and BUC-mUTUC (P < .001). On multivariable Cox regression, synchronous UTUC-BUC was an independent predictor of both RFS (P < .001; vs. UTUC-mBUC: HR 0.555, P = .004; vs. BUC-mUTUC: HR 0.279, P < .001) and CSS (P < .001, HR 29.737). Moreover, sUTUC-BUC showed a better response to intravesical therapy and chemotherapy with higher cancer-specific survival (P < .001) and recurrence-free survival (P = .034). CONCLUSIONS The prognosis and pathological characteristics among different metachronous and synchronous UTUC and BUC were diverse. The synchronous UTUC-BUC group showed variant histology subtype, high-grade tumors, advanced tumors, multifocal UTUC, worse cancer-specific survival, but better response to intravesical therapy and chemotherapy.
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MESH Headings
- Humans
- Male
- Female
- Urinary Bladder Neoplasms/pathology
- Urinary Bladder Neoplasms/mortality
- Urinary Bladder Neoplasms/therapy
- Aged
- Retrospective Studies
- Middle Aged
- Prognosis
- Neoplasms, Multiple Primary/pathology
- Neoplasms, Multiple Primary/mortality
- Neoplasms, Multiple Primary/therapy
- Neoplasms, Multiple Primary/surgery
- Neoplasms, Second Primary/pathology
- Neoplasms, Second Primary/mortality
- Treatment Outcome
- Carcinoma, Transitional Cell/pathology
- Carcinoma, Transitional Cell/mortality
- Carcinoma, Transitional Cell/therapy
- Carcinoma, Transitional Cell/surgery
- Carcinoma, Transitional Cell/drug therapy
- Survival Analysis
- Aged, 80 and over
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Affiliation(s)
- Wei Zuo
- Department of Urology, Peking University First Hospital, Institute of Urology, Peking University, National Urological Cancer Center, Beijing, China
| | - Jilong Zhang
- Department of Urology, Peking University First Hospital, Institute of Urology, Peking University, National Urological Cancer Center, Beijing, China
| | - Liqing Xu
- Department of Urology, Peking University First Hospital, Institute of Urology, Peking University, National Urological Cancer Center, Beijing, China
| | - Gengyan Xiong
- Department of Urology, Peking University First Hospital, Institute of Urology, Peking University, National Urological Cancer Center, Beijing, China
| | - Chunru Xu
- Department of Urology, Peking University First Hospital, Institute of Urology, Peking University, National Urological Cancer Center, Beijing, China
| | - Qi Tang
- Department of Urology, Peking University First Hospital, Institute of Urology, Peking University, National Urological Cancer Center, Beijing, China.
| | - Xuesong Li
- Department of Urology, Peking University First Hospital, Institute of Urology, Peking University, National Urological Cancer Center, Beijing, China.
| | - Liqun Zhou
- Department of Urology, Peking University First Hospital, Institute of Urology, Peking University, National Urological Cancer Center, Beijing, China.
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Mustafa M, Hijaz H, Aghbar A, Barqawi A, Alami I, Khalil N. Is the presence of upper tract transitional cell carcinoma in a calyceal diverticulum a risk factor for early metastasis? A case report and review of the literature. SAGE Open Med Case Rep 2024; 12:2050313X241288341. [PMID: 39399581 PMCID: PMC11468008 DOI: 10.1177/2050313x241288341] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/13/2024] [Accepted: 09/16/2024] [Indexed: 10/15/2024] Open
Abstract
Upper tract transitional cell carcinoma poses diagnostic challenges due to its prevalence and diverse clinical presentations. This case report describes the incidental discovery of high-grade transitional cell carcinoma during the management of a 48-year-old male with ischemic heart disease and an asymptomatic right renal stone. During flexible ureteroscopy for stone removal, papillary lesions were identified within a calyceal diverticulum and confirmed as high-grade transitional cell carcinoma. The unique anatomy of the calyceal diverticulum, characterized by its restricted wall thickness, may predispose the tumor to early metastasis. Additionally, there is a concern about potential iatrogenic dissemination of tumor cells to the bladder during the ureteroscopic procedure. This case highlights the diagnostic complexities associated with upper tract transitional cell carcinoma in rare anatomical locations and emphasizes the need for careful consideration of both procedural factors and anatomical features to manage the risk of metastasis and tumor dissemination effectively.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mahmoud Mustafa
- Department of Medicine, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, An-Najah National University, Nablus, Palestine
- Department of Urology, An-Najah National University Hospital, Nablus, Palestine
| | - Hatem Hijaz
- Department of Medicine, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, An-Najah National University, Nablus, Palestine
- Department of Urology, An-Najah National University Hospital, Nablus, Palestine
| | - Amir Aghbar
- Department of Medicine, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, An-Najah National University, Nablus, Palestine
- Department of Urology, An-Najah National University Hospital, Nablus, Palestine
| | - Abdelkarim Barqawi
- Department of Medicine, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, An-Najah National University, Nablus, Palestine
- Department of General Surgery, An-Najah National University Hospital, Nablus, Palestine
| | - Ibraheem Alami
- Department of Medicine, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, An-Najah National University, Nablus, Palestine
- Department of Urology, An-Najah National University Hospital, Nablus, Palestine
| | - Nabil Khalil
- Department of Medicine, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, An-Najah National University, Nablus, Palestine
- Department of Urology, An-Najah National University Hospital, Nablus, Palestine
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Yu LC, Wang CA, Hu CY, Lin KC, Ou CH, Jan HC. Preoperative systemic inflammation response index enhances the prognostic value of tumor multifocalityin upper tract urothelial carcinoma. Oncol Lett 2024; 28:436. [PMID: 39081967 PMCID: PMC11287106 DOI: 10.3892/ol.2024.14569] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/14/2023] [Accepted: 05/20/2024] [Indexed: 08/02/2024] Open
Abstract
In cancer, tumor-related inflammation affects disease progression and survival outcomes. However, the role of systemic inflammation in tumor multifocality in upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) is not well understood. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the impact of the systemic inflammation response index (SIRI) on tumor multifocality for predicting oncological outcomes in patients with UTUC after radical nephroureterectomy (RNU). For this purpose, data from 645 patients with non-metastatic UTUC who underwent RNU between 2008 and 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. Survival outcomes such as overall survival (OS), cancer-specific survival (CSS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) RATES were assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method, and independent prognostic factors were identified through a multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model. Of the 645 patients with UTUC included in the present study, 163 (25%) had multifocal UTUC. Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated that multifocal UTUC synchronous with a high-level SIRI was significantly associated with poorer outcomes after RNU. Furthermore, the results of the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model analysis demonstrated that multifocal tumor coupled with a high-level SIRI was an independent factor for predicting a shorter survival and disease progression. In conclusion, the results of the present study indicated that an elevated SIRI significantly influenced the survival rate of patients with multifocal UTUC. Specifically, integrating multifocal UTUC with a high-level SIRI emerged as an independent risk factor for poorer OS, CSS and RFS. These findings highlighted the potential role of SIRI in the risk stratification and management of patients with multifocal UTUC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lian-Ching Yu
- Department of Urology, National Cheng Kung University Hospital, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 70403, Taiwan, R.O.C
| | - Chu-An Wang
- Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 70101, Taiwan, R.O.C
| | - Che-Yuan Hu
- Department of Urology, National Cheng Kung University Hospital, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 70403, Taiwan, R.O.C
- Department of Urology, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 70403, Taiwan, R.O.C
| | - Kun-Che Lin
- Department of Urology, National Cheng Kung University Hospital, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 70403, Taiwan, R.O.C
| | - Chien-Hui Ou
- Department of Urology, National Cheng Kung University Hospital, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 70403, Taiwan, R.O.C
- Department of Urology, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 70403, Taiwan, R.O.C
| | - Hau-Chern Jan
- Department of Urology, National Cheng Kung University Hospital, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 70403, Taiwan, R.O.C
- Institute of Clinical Medicine, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 70403, Taiwan, R.O.C
- Division of Urology, Department of Surgery, National Cheng Kung University Hospital Dou-Liou Branch, Yunlin 64043, Taiwan, R.O.C
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Rouprêt M, Seisen T, Birtle AJ, Capoun O, Compérat EM, Dominguez-Escrig JL, Gürses Andersson I, Liedberg F, Mariappan P, Hugh Mostafid A, Pradere B, van Rhijn BWG, Shariat SF, Rai BP, Soria F, Soukup V, Wood RG, Xylinas EN, Masson-Lecomte A, Gontero P. European Association of Urology Guidelines on Upper Urinary Tract Urothelial Carcinoma: 2023 Update. Eur Urol 2023; 84:S0302-2838(23)02652-0. [PMID: 36967359 DOI: 10.1016/j.eururo.2023.03.013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 251] [Impact Index Per Article: 125.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2023] [Accepted: 03/06/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
CONTEXT The European Association of Urology (EAU) guidelines panel on upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) has updated the guidelines to aid clinicians in evidence-based management of UTUC. OBJECTIVE To provide an overview of the EAU guidelines on UTUC as an aid to clinicians. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION The recommendations provided in these guidelines are based on a review of the literature via a systematic search of the PubMed, Ovid, EMBASE, and Cochrane databases. Data were searched using the following keywords: urinary tract cancer, urothelial carcinomas, renal pelvis, ureter, bladder cancer, chemotherapy, ureteroscopy, nephroureterectomy, neoplasm, (neo)adjuvant treatment, instillation, recurrence, risk factors, metastatic, immunotherapy, and survival. The results were assessed by a panel of experts. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS Even though data are accruing, for many areas there is still insufficient high-level evidence to provide strong recommendations. Patient stratification on the basis of histology and clinical examination (including imaging) and assessment of patients at risk of Lynch syndrome will aid management. Kidney-sparing management should be offered as a primary treatment option to patients with low-risk UTUC and two functional kidneys. In particular, for patients with high-risk or metastatic UTUC, new treatment options have become available. In high-risk UTUC, platinum-based chemotherapy after radical nephroureterectomy, and adjuvant nivolumab for unfit or patients who decline chemotherapy, are options. For metastatic disease, gemcitabine/carboplatin chemotherapy is recommended as first-line treatment for cisplatin-ineligible patients. Patients with PD-1/PD-L1-positive tumours should be offered a checkpoint inhibitor (pembrolizumab or atezolizumab). CONCLUSIONS These guidelines contain information on the management of individual patients according to the current best evidence. Urologists should take into account the specific clinical characteristics of each patient when determining the optimal treatment regimen according to the risk stratification of these tumours. PATIENT SUMMARY Cancer of the upper urinary tract is rare, but because 60% of these tumours are invasive at diagnosis, timely and appropriate diagnosis is most important. A number of known risk factors exist.
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Affiliation(s)
- Morgan Rouprêt
- GRC 5 Predictive Onco-Uro, Sorbonne University, AP-HP, Urology, Pitie-Salpetriere Hospital, Paris, France.
| | - Thomas Seisen
- GRC 5 Predictive Onco-Uro, Sorbonne University, AP-HP, Urology, Pitie-Salpetriere Hospital, Paris, France
| | - Alison J Birtle
- Lancashire Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Preston, UK; University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Otakar Capoun
- Department of Urology, General Teaching Hospital and 1st Faculty of Medicine, Charles University Praha, Prague, Czechia; Department of Pathology, General Hospital of Vienna, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Eva M Compérat
- Department of Urology, General Teaching Hospital and 1st Faculty of Medicine, Charles University Praha, Prague, Czechia; Department of Pathology, General Hospital of Vienna, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Department of Pathology, Sorbonne University, AP-HP, Hôpital Tenon, Paris
| | | | | | - Fredrik Liedberg
- Department of Translational Medicine, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden; Department of Urology, Skåne University Hospital, Malmö, Sweden
| | - Paramananthan Mariappan
- Department of Urology, Edinburgh Bladder Cancer Surgery, Western General Hospital, Edinburgh, UK
| | - A Hugh Mostafid
- Department of Urology, The Stokes Centre for Urology, Royal Surrey Hospital, Guildford, UK
| | - Benjamin Pradere
- Department of Urology, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Department of Urology, La Croix Du Sud Hospital, Quint Fonsegrives, France
| | - Bas W G van Rhijn
- Department of Urology, Caritas St. Josef Medical Center, University of Regensburg, Regensburg, Germany; Department of Surgical Oncology (Urology), Netherlands Cancer Institute-Antoni van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Shahrokh F Shariat
- Department of Urology, Teaching Hospital Motol and 2nd Faculty of Medicine, Charles University Praha, Prague, Czechia; Department of Urology, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical University Vienna, Vienna General Hospital, Vienna, Austria
| | - Bhavan P Rai
- Department of Urology, Freeman Hospital, The Newcastle upon Tyne Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
| | - Francesco Soria
- Department of Urology, Città della Salute e della Scienza, University of Torino School of Medicine, Torino, Italy
| | - Viktor Soukup
- Department of Urology, General Teaching Hospital and 1st Faculty of Medicine, Charles University Praha, Prague, Czechia; Department of Pathology, General Hospital of Vienna, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | | | - Evanguelos N Xylinas
- Department of Urology, Bichat-Claude Bernard Hospital, AP-HP, Université de Paris, Paris, France
| | | | - Paolo Gontero
- Department of Urology, Città della Salute e della Scienza, University of Torino School of Medicine, Torino, Italy
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Clinical Characteristics and Current Status of Treatment for Recurrent Bladder Cancer after Surgeries on Upper Tract Urothelial Carcinoma. Diagnostics (Basel) 2023; 13:diagnostics13051004. [PMID: 36900148 PMCID: PMC10000489 DOI: 10.3390/diagnostics13051004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2023] [Revised: 02/08/2023] [Accepted: 03/02/2023] [Indexed: 03/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) is a relatively rare, but highly malignant, disease with an estimated annual incidence of 2 cases per 100,000 people. The main surgical treatment modalities for UTUC are radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) with bladder cuff resection. After surgery, intravesical recurrence (IVR) can occur in up to 47% of patients, and 75% of them present with non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC). However, there are few studies focused on the diagnosis and treatment of postoperatively recurrent bladder cancer for patients with previous UTUC history (UTUC-BC), and many of the influencing factors are still controversial. In this article, we performed a narrative review of the recent literature, mainly summarizing the factors influencing postoperative IVR in patients with UTUC and discussing the subsequent prevention, monitoring, and treatment tools for it.
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Automated predictive analytics tool for rainfall forecasting. Sci Rep 2021; 11:17704. [PMID: 34489507 PMCID: PMC8421346 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-95735-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2021] [Accepted: 07/20/2021] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Australia faces a dryness disaster whose impact may be mitigated by rainfall prediction. Being an incredibly challenging task, yet accurate prediction of rainfall plays an enormous role in policy making, decision making and organizing sustainable water resource systems. The ability to accurately predict rainfall patterns empowers civilizations. Though short-term rainfall predictions are provided by meteorological systems, long-term prediction of rainfall is challenging and has a lot of factors that lead to uncertainty. Historically, various researchers have experimented with several machine learning techniques in rainfall prediction with given weather conditions. However, in places like Australia where the climate is variable, finding the best method to model the complex rainfall process is a major challenge. The aim of this paper is to: (a) predict rainfall using machine learning algorithms and comparing the performance of different models. (b) Develop an optimized neural network and develop a prediction model using the neural network (c) to do a comparative study of new and existing prediction techniques using Australian rainfall data. In this paper, rainfall data collected over a span of ten years from 2007 to 2017, with the input from 26 geographically diverse locations have been used to develop the predictive models. The data was divided into training and testing sets for validation purposes. The results show that both traditional and neural network-based machine learning models can predict rainfall with more precision.
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