Worldwide isotope ratios of the Fukushima release and early-phase external dose reconstruction

Introduction of a method to calculate cumulative age- and gender-specific lifetime attributable risk (LAR) of cancer in populations after a large-scale nuclear power plant accident

The effect of age and gender in risk estimates related to long-term residence in areas contaminated by nuclear power plant fallout was evaluated by applying the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) concept to an existing exposure model that was previously used for cumulative effective dose estimates. In this study, we investigated the influence of age distribution on the number of cancer cases by applying five different age distributions from nuclear power-producing countries (India, Japan, South Korea, and the United States), and Egypt because of intentions to develop nuclear power. The model was also used to estimate the effective dose and gender-specific LAR as a function of time after fallout for the offspring of the population living in 137Cs fallout areas. The principal findings of this study are that the LAR of cancer incidence (excluding non-fatal skin cancers) over 70 y is about 4.5 times higher for newborn females (5.4% per MBq m-2 of initial 137Cs ground deposition) than the corresponding values for 30 y old women (1.2% per MBq m-2 137Cs deposition). The cumulative LAR for newborn males is more than 3 times higher (3.2% versus 1.0% per MBq m-2 137Cs deposition). The model predicts a generally higher LAR for women until 50 y of age, after which the gender difference converges. Furthermore, the detriment for newborns in the fallout areas initially decreases rapidly (about threefold during the first decade) and then decreases gradually with an approximate half-time of 10-12 y after the first decade. The age distribution of the exposed cohort has a decisive impact on the average risk estimates, and in our model, these are up to about 65% higher in countries with high birth rates compared to low birth rates. This trend implies larger average lifetime attributable risks in countries with a highly proportional younger population. In conclusion, the large dispersion (up to a factor of 4 between newborns and 30 y olds) in the lifetime detriment per unit ground deposition of 137Cs over gender and age in connection with accidental nuclear releases justifies the effort in developing risk models that account for the higher radiation sensitivity in younger populations.

Modelling the effective dose to a population from fallout after a nuclear power plant accident-A scenario-based study with mitigating actions

The radiological consequences of a nuclear power plant (NPP) accident, resulting in the release of radionuclides to the environment, will depend largely on the mitigating actions instigated shortly after the accident. It is therefore important to make predictions of the radiation dose to the affected population, from external as well as internal exposure, soon after an accident, despite the fact that data are scarce. The aim of this study was to develop a model for the prediction of the cumulative effective dose up to 84 years of age based on the ground deposition of 137Cs that is determined soon after fallout. The model accounts for different assumptions regarding external and internal dose contributions, and the model parameters in this study were chosen to reflect various mitigating actions. Furthermore, the relative importance of these parameters was determined by sensitivity analysis. To the best of our knowledge, this model is unique as it allows quantification of both the external and the internal effective dose using only a fallout map of 137Cs after a nuclear power plant accident. The cumulative effective dose over a period of 50 years following the accident per unit 137Cs deposited was found to range from 0.14 mSv/kBq m-2 to 1.5 mSv/kBq m-2, depending on the mitigating actions undertaken. According to the sensitivity analysis, the most important parameters governing the cumulative effective dose to various adult populations during 50 years after the fallout appear to be: the correlation factor between the local areal deposition of 137Cs and the maximum initial ambient dose rate; the maximum transfer from regional average fallout on the ground to body burden; the local areal deposition of 137Cs; and the regional average 137Cs deposition. Therefore, it is important that mapping of local 137Cs deposition is carried out immediately after fallout from a nuclear power plant accident, followed by calculations of radiation doses for different scenarios using well-known parameters, in order to identify the most efficient mitigation strategies. Given this 137Cs mapping, we believe our model is a valuable tool for long-term radiological assessment in the early phase after NPP accidents.

Comparisons between a new point kernel-based scheme and the infinite plane source assumption method for radiation calculation of deposited airborne radionuclides from nuclear power plants

Radiation from the deposited radionuclides is indispensable information for environmental impact assessment of nuclear power plants and emergency management during nuclear accidents. Ground shine estimation is related to multiple physical processes, including atmospheric dispersion, deposition, soil and air radiation shielding. It still remains unclear that whether the normally adopted "infinite plane" source assumption for the ground shine calculation is accurate enough, especially for the area with highly heterogeneous deposition distribution near the release point. In this study, a new ground shine calculation scheme, which accounts for both the spatial deposition distribution and the properties of air and soil layers, is developed based on point kernel method. Two sets of "detector-centered" grids are proposed and optimized for both the deposition and radiation calculations to better simulate the results measured by the detectors, which will be beneficial for the applications such as source term estimation. The evaluation against the available data of Monte Carlo methods in the literature indicates that the errors of the new scheme are within 5% for the key radionuclides in nuclear accidents. The comparisons between the new scheme and "infinite plane" assumption indicate that the assumption is tenable (relative errors within 20%) for the area located 1 km away from the release source. Within 1 km range, the assumption mainly causes errors for wet deposition and the errors are independent of rain intensities. The results suggest that the new scheme should be adopted if the detectors are within 1 km from the source under the stable atmosphere (classes E and F), or the detectors are within 500 m under slightly unstable (class C) or neutral (class D) atmosphere. Otherwise, the infinite plane assumption is reasonable since the relative errors induced by this assumption are within 20%. The results here are only based on theoretical investigations. They should be further thoroughly evaluated with real measurements in the future.

Spatiotemporal distribution and fluctuation of radiocesium in Tokyo Bay in the five years following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident

A monitoring survey was conducted from August 2011 to July 2016 of the spatiotemporal distribution in the 400 km² area of the northern part of Tokyo Bay and in rivers flowing into it of radiocesium released from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident. The average inventory in the river mouth (10 km²) was 131 kBq⋅m^-2 and 0.73 kBq⋅m^-2 in the central bay (330 km²) as the decay corrected value on March 16, 2011. Most of the radiocesium that flowed into Tokyo Bay originated in the northeastern section of the Tokyo metropolitan area, where the highest precipitation zone of ¹³⁷Cs in soil was almost the same level as that in Fukushima City, then flowed into and was deposited in the Old-Edogawa River estuary, deep in Tokyo Bay. The highest precipitation of radiocesium measured in the high contaminated zone was 460 kBq⋅m^-2. The inventory in sediment off the estuary of Old-Edogawa was 20.1 kBq⋅m^-2 in August 2011 immediately after the accident, but it increased to 104 kBq⋅m^-2 in July 2016. However, the radiocesium diffused minimally in sediments in the central area of Tokyo Bay in the five years following the FDNPP accident. The flux of radiocesium off the estuary decreased slightly immediately after the accident and conformed almost exactly to the values predicted based on its radioactive decay. Contrarily, the inventory of radiocesium in the sediment has increased. It was estimated that of the 8.33 TBq precipitated from the atmosphere in the catchment regions of the rivers Edogawa and Old-Edogawa, 1.31 TBq migrated through rivers and was deposited in the sediments of the Old-Edogawa estuary by July 2016. Currently, 0.25 TBq⋅yr^-1 of radiocesium continues to flow into the deep parts of Tokyo Bay.

Radioactive contamination in the Tokyo metropolitan area in the early stage of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident and its fluctuation over five years

Radioactive contamination in the Tokyo metropolitan area in the immediate aftermath of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident was analyzed via surface soil sampled during a two-month period after the accident. ¹³¹I, ¹³⁴Cs, and ¹³⁷Cs were detected in these soil samples. The activity and inventory of radioactive material in the eastern part of Tokyo tended to be high. The ¹³⁴Cs/¹³⁷Cs activity ratio in soil was 0.978 ± 0.053. The ¹³¹I/¹³⁷Cs ratio fluctuated widely, and was 19.7 ± 9.0 (weighted average 18.71 ± 0.13, n = 14) in the Tokyo metropolitan area. The radioactive plume with high ¹³¹I activity spread into the Tokyo metropolitan area and was higher than the weighted average of 6.07 ± 0.04 (n = 26) in other areas. The radiocesium activity and inventory surveyed in soil from a garden in Chiyoda Ward in the center of Tokyo, fell approximately 85% in the four months after the accident, and subsequently tended to rise slightly while fluctuating widely. It is possible that migration and redistribution of radiocesium occurred. The behavior of radiocesium in Tokyo was analyzed via monitoring of radiocesium in sludge incineration ash. The radiocesium activity in the incineration ash was high at wastewater treatment centers that had catchment areas in eastern Tokyo and low at those with catchment areas in western Tokyo. Similar to the case of the garden soil, even in incineration ash, the radiocesium activity dropped rapidly immediately after the accident. The radiocesium activity in the incineration ash fell steadily from the tenth month after the accident until December 2016, and its half-life was about 500 days. According to frequency analysis, in central Tokyo, the cycles of fluctuation of radiocesium activity in incineration ash and rainfall conformed, clearly showing that radiocesium deposited in urban areas was resuspended and transported by rainfall run-off.

Carbon, cesium and iodine isotopes in Japanese cedar leaves from Iwaki, Fukushima

Japanese cedar leaves from Iwaki, Fukushima were analyzed for carbon, cesium and iodine isotopic compositions before and after the 2011 nuclear accident. The Δ14C values reflect ambient atmospheric 14C concentrations during the year the leaves were sampled/defoliated, and also previous year(s). The elevated 129I and 134,137Cs concentrations are attributed to direct exposure to the radioactive fallout for the pre-fallout-expended leaves and to internal translocation from older parts of the tree for post-fallout-expended leaves. 134Cs/137Cs and 129I/137Cs activity ratios suggest insignificant isotopic and elemental fractionation during translocation. However, fractionation between radioiodine and radiocesium is significant during transportation from the source.

Fukushima derived radiocesium in subsistence-consumed northern fur seal and wild celery

In July 2014, our investigative team traveled to St. Paul Island, Alaska to measure concentrations of radiocesium in wild-caught food products, primarily northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus). The 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident released radiocesium into the atmosphere and into the western Pacific Ocean; other investigators have detected Fukushima-derived radionuclides in a variety of marine products harvested off the western coast of North America. We tested two subsistence-consumed food products from St. Paul Island, Alaska for Fukushima-derived radionuclides: 54 northern fur seal, and nine putchki (wild celery, Angelica lucida) plants. Individual northern fur seal samples were below minimum detectable activity concentrations of (137)Cs and (134)Cs, but when composited, northern fur seal tissues tested positive for trace quantities of both isotopes. Radiocesium was detected at an activity concentration of 37.2 mBq (134)Cs kg(-1) f.w. (95% CI: 35.9-38.5) and 141.2 mBq (137)Cs kg(-1) f.w. (95% CI: 135.5-146.8). The measured isotopic ratio, decay-corrected to the date of harvest, was 0.26 (95% CI: 0.25-0.28). The Fukushima nuclear accident released (134)Cs and (137)Cs in roughly equal quantities, but by the date of harvest in July 2014, this ratio was 0.2774, indicating that this population of seals has been exposed to small quantities of Fukushima-derived radiocesium. Activity concentrations of both (134)Cs and (137)Cs in putchki were below detection limits, even for composited samples. Northern fur seal is known to migrate between coastal Alaska and Japan and the trace (134)Cs in northern fur seal tissue suggests that the population under study had been minimally exposed Fukushima-derived radionuclides. Despite this inference, the radionuclide quantities detected are small and no impact is expected as a result of the measured radiation exposure, either in northern fur seal or human populations consuming this species.

Behavior of accidentally released radiocesium in soil-water environment: Looking at Fukushima from a Chernobyl perspective

Quantitative characteristics of dissolved and particulate radiocesium wash-off from contaminated watersheds after the FDNPP accident are calculated based on published monitoring data. Comparative analysis is provided for radiocesium wash-off parameters and distribution coefficients, Kd, between suspended matter and water in rivers and surface runoff on Fukushima and Chernobyl contaminated areas for the first years after the accidents. It was found that radiocesium distribution coefficient in Fukushima rivers is essentially higher (1-2 orders of magnitude) than corresponding values for rivers and surface runoff within the Chernobyl zone. This can be associated with two factors: first, the high fraction of clays in the predominant soils and sediments of the Fukushima area and accordingly a higher value of the radiocesium Interception Potential, RIP, in general, and secondly the presence of water insoluble glassy particles containing radiocesium in the accidental fallout at Fukushima. It was found also that normalized dissolved wash-off coefficients for Fukushima catchments are 1-2 orders of magnitude lower than corresponding values for the Chernobyl zone. Normalized particulate wash-off coefficients are comparable for Fukushima and Chernobyl. Results of the investigation of radiocesium's ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) vertical distribution in soils of the close-in area of the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP - Okuma town and floodplain of the Niida river are presented. The radiocesium migration in undisturbed forest and grassland soils at Fukushima contaminated area has been shown to be faster as compared to the Chernobyl 30-km zone during the first three years after the accidents. This may be associated with higher annual precipitation (by about 2.5 times) in Fukushima as compared to the Chernobyl zone, as well as the differences in the soil characteristics and temperature regime throughout a year. Investigation and analysis of Fukushima's radiocesium distribution in soils of Niida river catchment revealed accumulation zones of contaminated sediments on its floodplain. Average sediment deposition rates varied from 0.3 to 3.3 cm/year.

Global deposition and transport efficiencies of radioactive species with respect to modelling credibility after Fukushima (Japan, 2011)

In this study we conduct a detailed comparison of the modelling response of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident with global and local observations. We use five different model versions characterized by different horizontal and vertical resolutions of the same General Circulation Model (GCM). Transport efficiencies of (137)Cs across the world are presented as an indication of the expected radioactive impact. Activity concentrations were well represented showing lower Normalized Mean Biases (NMBs) when the better resolved versions of the GCM were used. About 95% of the results using the zoom configuration over Europe (zEur) remained within a factor of 10 from the observations. Close to Japan, the model reproduced well (137)Cs concentrations using the zoom version over Asia (zAsia) showing high correlations, while more than 64% of the modelling results were found within a factor of two from the observations and more than 92% within a factor of 10. Labile and refractory rare radionuclides calculated indirectly showed larger deviations, with about 60% of the simulated concentrations within a factor of 10 from the observations. We estimate that around 23% of the released (137)Cs remained into Japan, while 76% deposited in the oceans. Around 163 TBq deposited over North America, among which 95 TBq over USA, 40 TBq over Canada and 5 TBq over Greenland). About 14 TBq deposited over Europe (mostly in the European part of Russia, Sweden and Norway) and 47 TBq over Asia (mostly in the Asian part of Russia, Philippines and South Korea), while traces were observed over Africa, Oceania and Antarctica. Since the radioactive plume followed a northward direction before its arrival to USA and then to Europe, a significant amount of about 69 TBq deposited in the Arctic, as well. These patterns of deposition are fully consistent with the most recent reports for the accident.

Speciation of radiocesium and radioiodine in aerosols from Tsukuba after the Fukushima nuclear accident

Aerosol samples were collected from Tsukuba, Japan, soon after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident and analyzed for speciation of radiocesium and radioiodine to explore their chemical behavior and isotopic ratios after the release. Most (134)Cs and (137)Cs were bound in organic matter (53–91%) and some in water-soluble fractions (5–15%), whereas a negligible proportion of radiocesium remained in minerals. This pattern suggests that sulfate salts and organic matter may be the main carrier of Cs-bearing particles. The (129)I in aerosol samples is contained in various proportions as soluble inorganic iodine (I(–) and IO3(–)), soluble organic iodine, and unextractable iodine. The measured mean (129)I/(131)I atomic ratio of 16.0 ± 2.2 is in good agreement with that measured from rainwater and consistent with ratios measured in surface soil samples. Together with other aerosols and seawater samples, an initial (129)I/(137)Cs activity ratio of ∼4 × 10(–7) was obtained. In contrast to the effectively constant (134)Cs/(137)Cs activity ratios (1.04 ± 0.04) and (129)I/(131)I atomic ratios (16.0 ± 2.2), the (129)I/(137)Cs activity ratios scattered from 3.5 × 10(–7) to 5 × 10(–6) and showed temporally and spatially different dispersion and deposition patterns between radiocesium and radioiodine. These findings confirm that (129)I, instead of (137)Cs, should be considered as a proxy for (131)I reconstruction.

Epiphytic fruticose lichens as biomonitors for retrospective evaluation of the (134)Cs/(137)Cs ratio in Fukushima fallout

In 2011-2013, sampling of epiphytic fruticose lichens of the genera Usnea, Bryoria and Alectoria was carried out on Sakhalin and Kuril Islands (the Sakhalin region, Russia) to investigate contamination of these organisms with the Fukushima-derived (134)Cs and (137)Cs. Activities of the radionuclides were determined in all 56 samples of lichens taken for the analysis. After correction for radioactive decay (on 15 March 2011), the activity concentrations ranged from 2.1 Bq kg(-1) (d.w.) to 52 Bq kg(-1) for (134)Cs and from 2.3 Bq kg(-1) to 52 Bq kg(-1) for (137)Cs. Cesium-134 and (137)Cs activities for the whole set of lichens (n = 56) were strongly positively correlated; Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was calculated as 0.991 (P < 0.01). The activity concentrations of (134)Cs and (137)Cs in Usnea lichens from the Sakhalin and Kunashir islands declined with a factor of three in the period from 2011 to 2013. The average biological half-time for both cesium radionuclides in lichens of the genus Usnea is estimated as 1.3 y. The mean of 0.99 ± 0.10 and median of 0.99 were calculated for the decay corrected (134)Cs/(137)Cs activities ratios in the lichens (n = 56). The radionuclides ratio in the lichens did not depend on location of sampling site, species and the time that had passed after the Fukushima accident. The regression analysis has shown the background pre-Fukushima level of (137)Cs of 0.4 ± 0.3 Bq kg(-1), whereas the ratio between the Fukushima-borne (134)Cs and (137)Cs in the lichens was estimated as 1.04. The (134)Cs/(137)Cs activities ratio in lichens from the Sakhalin region is consistent with the ratios reported by others for the heavy contaminated areas on Honshu Island in Japan following the Fukushima accident. The activity concentrations of natural (7)Be in lichens from the Sakhalin region varied between 100 Bq kg(-1) and 600 Bq kg(-1); the activity concentrations did not exhibit temporal variations during a 2y-period of observations. The applicability of epiphytic fruticose lichens as retrospective bio-monitors for the air-borne radiocesium contamination of the environment is discussed.

How "lucky" we are that the Fukushima disaster occurred in early spring: predictions on the contamination levels from various fission products released from the accident and updates on the risk assessment for solid and thyroid cancers

The present paper studies how a random event (earthquake) and the subsequent disaster in Japan affect transport and deposition of fallout and the resulting health consequences. Therefore, except for the original accident in March 2011, three additional scenarios are assessed assuming that the same releases took place in winter 2010, summer 2011 and autumn 2011 in order to cover a full range of annual seasonality. This is also the first study where a large number of fission products released from the accident are used to assess health risks with the maximum possible efficiency. Xenon-133 and (137)Cs are directly estimated within the model, whereas 15 other radionuclides are calculated indirectly using reported isotopic ratios. As much as 85% of the released (137)Cs would be deposited in continental regions worldwide if the accident occurred in winter 2010, 22% in spring 2011 (when it actually happened), 55% in summer 2011 and 48% if it occurred during autumn 2011. Solid cancer incidents and mortalities from Fukushima are estimated to be between 160 and 880 and from 110 to 640 close to previous estimations. By adding thyroid cancers, the total number rises from 230 to 850 for incidents and from 120 to 650 for mortalities. Fatalities due to worker exposure and mandatory evacuation have been reported to be around 610 increasing total estimated mortalities to 730-1260. These estimates are 2.8 times higher than previously reported ones for radiocaesium and (131)I and 16% higher than those reported based on radiocaesium only. Total expected fatalities from Fukushima are 32% lower than in the winter scenario, 5% that in the summer scenario and 30% lower than in the autumn scenario. Nevertheless, cancer fatalities are expected to be less than 5% of those from the tsunami (~20,000).

Comprehensive data on ionising radiation from Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in the town of Miharu, Fukushima Prefecture: The Misho Project

Data related to radioactivity released from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident on 15 March 2011 gathered by residents of Miharu, Fukushima Prefecture, and by Tohoku University are presented. These data sets consist of (1) the earliest radiation monitoring by a Geiger counter in the town, (2) ratios of radioactivity between (132)Te and (137)Cs for a wide area between Fukushima and Tokyo, (3) radiation measurement of soil samples collected from 18 school grounds, and (4) external radiation exposure of 1400 students using OSL badges. By combining and analysing these various data sets, a curve for the cumulative total external exposure as a function of time, with 16 : 00 h on 15 March 2011 being time zero, is obtained. The average cumulative external dosage is estimated to be 10 mSv (σ = 4.2 mSv) over 10 years. In addition, the initiative that the residents of Miharu took in response to the FDNPP accident, which became known as The Misho Project (MP), is documented; in particular, the time at which the municipality instructed the immediate ingestion of iodine tablets by those under the age of 40, 13 : 00 h on 15 March 2011, is assessed.