Indian monsoon variability on millennial-orbital timescales

Deep-rooted Indian Middle Palaeolithic: Terminal Middle Pleistocene lithic assemblage from Retlapalle, Andhra Pradesh, India

The Indian Middle Palaeolithic has been recognized as crucial evidence for understanding the complex behavioural dynamics of hominins and is also seen as a behavioural marker of early Homo sapiens in the region. Recent research has pushed back the timeline of the Middle Palaeolithic to the Middle Pleistocene epoch, indicating a potential in-situ emergence from the earlier Late Acheulian culture. The long-lasting Middle Palaeolithic culture in India evolve over multiple glacial-interglacial cycle, showing signs of behavioural resilience to bigger climatic upheaval like ~74 ka Toba super-eruption. This has added to the complexity of our understanding of the Middle Palaeolithic in the region and emphasizes the need for further research. This study focuses upon the investigation of Middle Palaeolithic artefacts found in the Retlapalle area within the upper Gundlakamma river basin, Andhra Pradesh. The dating of the artefact-bearing layer was carried out using the p-IR-IRSL method, which revealed a burial age of 139±17 thousand years. The Retlapalle assemblage is characterized by a diverse range of Levallois core reductions, various retouched artefacts, with a dominance of pointed tools, and a few blade components. The study provides a valuable addition to the existing body of data concerning Palaeolithic sites dating back to the Middle Pleistocene, a period that remains relatively underexplored.

Global reorganization of atmospheric circulation during Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles

Ice core records from Greenland provide evidence for multiple abrupt cold-warm-cold events recurring at millennial time scales during the last glacial interval. Although climate variations resembling Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) oscillations have been identified in climate archives across the globe, our understanding of the climate and ecosystem impacts of the Greenland warming events in lower latitudes remains incomplete. Here, we investigate the influence of DO-cold-to-warm transitions on the global atmospheric circulation pattern. We comprehensively analyze δ18O changes during DO transitions in a globally distributed dataset of speleothems and set those in context with simulations of a comprehensive high-resolution climate model featuring internal millennial-scale variations of similar magnitude. Across the globe, speleothem δ18O signals and model results indicate consistent large-scale changes in precipitation amount, moisture source, or seasonality of precipitation associated with the DO transitions, in agreement with northward shifts of the Hadley circulation. Furthermore, we identify a decreasing trend in the amplitude of DO transitions with increasing distances from the North Atlantic region. This provides quantitative observational evidence for previous suggestions of the North Atlantic region being the focal point for these archetypes of past abrupt climate changes.

Holocene climate change in southern Oman deciphered by speleothem records and climate model simulations

Qunf Cave oxygen isotope (δ18Oc) record from southern Oman is one of the most significant of few Holocene Indian summer monsoon cave records. However, the interpretation of the Qunf δ18Oc remains in dispute. Here we provide a multi-proxy record from Qunf Cave and climate model simulations to reconstruct the Holocene local and regional hydroclimate changes. The results indicate that besides the Indian summer monsoon, the North African summer monsoon also contributes water vapor to southern Oman during the early to middle Holocene. In principle, Qunf δ18Oc values reflect integrated oxygen-isotope fractionations over a broad moisture transport swath from moisture sources to the cave site, rather than local precipitation amount alone, and thus the Qunf δ18Oc record characterizes primary changes in the Afro-Asian monsoon regime across the Holocene. In contrast, local climate proxies appear to suggest an overall slightly increased or unchanged wetness over the Holocene at the cave site.

Indian Ocean salinity build-up primes deglacial ocean circulation recovery

The Indian Ocean provides a source of salt for North Atlantic deep-water convection sites, via the Agulhas Leakage, and may thus drive changes in the ocean's overturning circulation1-3. However, little is known about the salt content variability of Indian Ocean and Agulhas Leakage waters during past glacial cycles and how this may influence circulation. Here we show that the glacial Indian Ocean surface salt budget was notably different from the modern, responding dynamically to changes in sea level. Indian Ocean surface salinity increased during glacial intensification, peaking in glacial maxima. We find that this is due to rapid land exposure in the Indonesian archipelago induced by glacial sea-level lowering, and we suggest a mechanistic link via reduced input of relatively fresh Indonesian Throughflow waters into the Indian Ocean. Using climate model results, we show that the release of this glacial Indian Ocean salinity via the Agulhas Leakage during deglaciation can directly impact the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and global climate.

The PaleoJump database for abrupt transitions in past climates

Tipping points (TPs) in Earth's climate system have been the subject of increasing interest and concern in recent years, given the risk that anthropogenic forcing could cause abrupt, potentially irreversible, climate transitions. Paleoclimate records are essential for identifying past TPs and for gaining a thorough understanding of the underlying nonlinearities and bifurcation mechanisms. However, the quality, resolution, and reliability of these records can vary, making it important to carefully select the ones that provide the most accurate representation of past climates. Moreover, as paleoclimate time series vary in their origin, time spans, and periodicities, an objective, automated methodology is crucial for identifying and comparing TPs. To address these challenges, we introduce the open-source PaleoJump database, which contains a collection of carefully selected, high-resolution records originating in ice cores, marine sediments, speleothems, terrestrial records, and lake sediments. These records describe climate variability on centennial, millennial and longer time scales and cover all the continents and ocean basins. We provide an overview of their spatial distribution and discuss the gaps in coverage. Our statistical methodology includes an augmented Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Recurrence Quantification Analysis; it is applied here, for illustration purposes, to selected records in which abrupt transitions are automatically detected and the presence of potential tipping elements is investigated. These transitions are shown in the PaleoJump database along with other essential information about the records, including location, temporal scale and resolution, as well as temporal plots. This open-source database represents, therefore, a valuable resource for researchers investigating TPs in past climates.

Southern hemisphere forced millennial scale Indian summer monsoon variability during the late Pleistocene

Peninsular India hosts the initial rain-down of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) after which winds travel further east inwards into Asia. Stalagmite oxygen isotope composition from this region, such as those from Belum Cave, preserve the vital signals of the past ISM variability. These archives experience a single wet season with a single dominant moisture source annually. Here we present high-resolution δ¹⁸O, δ¹³C and trace element (Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca, Ba/Ca, Mn/Ca) time series from a Belum Cave stalagmite spanning glacial MIS-6 (from ~ 183 to ~ 175 kyr) and interglacial substages MIS-5c-5a (~ 104 kyr to ~ 82 kyr). With most paleomonsoon reconstructions reporting coherent evolution of northern hemisphere summer insolation and ISM variability on orbital timescale, we focus on understanding the mechanisms behind millennial scale variability. Finding that the two are decoupled over millennial timescales, we address the role of the Southern Hemisphere processes in modulating monsoon strength as a part of the Hadley circulation. We identify several strong and weak episodes of ISM intensity during 104–82 kyr. Some of the weak episodes correspond to warming in the southern hemisphere associated with weak cross-equatorial winds. We show that during the MIS-5 substages, ISM strength gradually declined with millennial scale variability linked to Southern Hemisphere temperature changes which in turn modulate the strength of the Mascarene High.

Proxy Response Heterogeneity to the Indian Monsoon During Last Millennium in the Himalayan Region

We reviewed the available climate records for the past 2 millennia based on the analyzed sediment and speleothem archives from different regions of South Asia. Speleothem records from the core-monsoon regions of the Indian sub-continent have revealed the Little Ice Age (LIA) as a climatically dry phase, whereas the same from the western and central Himalaya recorded LIA as wet. Moreover, the sediment-derived vegetation proxy records [pollen-spores and stable organic carbon isotope (δ13Corg)] from the western Himalaya also reported LIA as a dry phase. Heterogeneous results by different proxies during LIA enhanced our interest to understand the response of the proxies toward the primary precipitation sources, Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and winter westerly disturbances (WDs), over the Himalaya. We emphasize that in the Himalayan region, the vegetation predominantly responds to the ISM dynamics, whereas speleothem also captures the WD effect.

Higher sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean during the Last Interglacial weakened the South Asian monsoon

Understanding the drivers of South Asian monsoon intensity is pivotal for improving climate forecasting under global warming scenarios. Solar insolation is assumed to be the dominant driver of monsoon variability in warm climate regimes, but this has not been verified by proxy data. We report a South Asian monsoon rainfall record spanning the last ∼130 kyr in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna river catchment. Our multiproxy data reveal that the South Asian monsoon was weaker during the Last Interglacial (130 to 115 ka)—despite higher insolation—than during the Holocene (11.6 ka to present), thus questioning the widely accepted model assumption. Our work implies that Indian Ocean warming may increase the occurrence of severe monsoon failures in South Asia.

Addressing and anticipating future South Asian monsoon changes under continuing global warming is of critical importance for the food security and socioeconomic well-being of one-quarter of the world’s population. However, climate model projections show discrepancies in future monsoon variability in South Asian monsoon domains, largely due to our still limited understanding of the monsoon response to warm climate change scenarios. Particularly, climate models are largely based on the assumption that higher solar insolation causes higher rainfall during similar warm climatic regimes, but this has not been verified by proxy data for different interglacial periods. Here, we compare Indian summer monsoon (ISM) variability during the Last Interglacial and Holocene using a sedimentary leaf wax δD and δ¹³C record from the northern Bay of Bengal, representing the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (G-B-M) river catchment. In combination with a seawater salinity record, our results show that ISM intensity broadly follows summer insolation on orbital scales, but ISM intensity during the Last Interglacial was lower than during the Holocene despite higher summer insolation and greenhouse gas concentrations. We argue that sustained warmer sea surface temperature in the equatorial and tropical Indian Ocean during the Last Interglacial increased convective rainfall above the ocean but dampened ISM intensity on land. Our study demonstrates that besides solar insolation, internal climatic feedbacks also play an important role for South Asian monsoon variability during warm climate states. This work can help to improve future climate model projections and highlights the importance of understanding controls of monsoonal rainfall under interglacial boundary conditions.

Constraining the chronology and ecology of Late Acheulean and Middle Palaeolithic occupations at the margins of the monsoon

South Asia hosts the world's youngest Acheulean sites, with dated records typically restricted to sub-humid landscapes. The Thar Desert marks a major adaptive boundary between monsoonal Asia to the east and the Saharo-Arabian desert belt to the west, making it a key threshold to examine patterns of hominin ecological adaptation and its impacts on patterns of behaviour, demography and dispersal. Here, we investigate Palaeolithic occupations at the western margin of the South Asian monsoon at Singi Talav, undertaking new chronometric, sedimentological and palaeoecological studies of Acheulean and Middle Palaeolithic occupation horizons. We constrain occupations of the site between 248 and 65 thousand years ago. This presents the first direct palaeoecological evidence for landscapes occupied by South Asian Acheulean-producing populations, most notably in the main occupation horizon dating to 177 thousand years ago. Our results illustrate the potential role of the Thar Desert as an ecological, and demographic, frontier to Palaeolithic populations.

A statistics-based reconstruction of high-resolution global terrestrial climate for the last 800,000 years

Curated global climate data have been generated from climate model outputs for the last 120,000 years, whereas reconstructions going back even further have been lacking due to the high computational cost of climate simulations. Here, we present a statistically-derived global terrestrial climate dataset for every 1,000 years of the last 800,000 years. It is based on a set of linear regressions between 72 existing HadCM3 climate simulations of the last 120,000 years and external forcings consisting of CO₂, orbital parameters, and land type. The estimated climatologies were interpolated to 0.5° resolution and bias-corrected using present-day climate. The data compare well with the original HadCM3 simulations and with long-term proxy records. Our dataset includes monthly temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, and 17 bioclimatic variables. In addition, we derived net primary productivity and global biome distributions using the BIOME4 vegetation model. The data are a relevant source for different research areas, such as archaeology or ecology, to study the long-term effect of glacial-interglacial climate cycles for periods beyond the last 120,000 years.

Measurement(s)	temperature • precipitation • cloud cover • net primary productivity
Technology Type(s)	computational modeling technique
Factor Type(s)	atmospheric carbon dioxide • orbital parameters • land surface type (ocean, land, land ice)
Sample Characteristic - Environment	climate system
Sample Characteristic - Location	Earth (planet)

Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: 10.6084/m9.figshare.15073479

Remote and local drivers of Pleistocene South Asian summer monsoon precipitation: A test for future predictions

South Asian precipitation amount and extreme variability are predicted to increase due to thermodynamic effects of increased 21st-century greenhouse gases, accompanied by an increased supply of moisture from the southern hemisphere Indian Ocean. We reconstructed South Asian summer monsoon precipitation and runoff into the Bay of Bengal to assess the extent to which these factors also operated in the Pleistocene, a time of large-scale natural changes in carbon dioxide and ice volume. South Asian precipitation and runoff are strongly coherent with, and lag, atmospheric carbon dioxide changes at Earth's orbital eccentricity, obliquity, and precession bands and are closely tied to cross-equatorial wind strength at the precession band. We find that the projected monsoon response to ongoing, rapid high-latitude ice melt and rising carbon dioxide levels is fully consistent with dynamics of the past 0.9 million years.

Hydroclimate footprint of pan-Asian monsoon water isotope during the last deglaciation

Oxygen isotope speleothem records exhibit coherent variability over the pan-Asian summer monsoon (AM) region. The hydroclimatic representation of these oxygen isotope records for the AM, however, has remained poorly understood. Here, combining an isotope-enabled Earth system model in transient experiments with proxy records, we show that the widespread AM δ18Oc signal during the last deglaciation (20 to 11 thousand years ago) is accompanied by a continental-scale, coherent hydroclimate footprint, with spatially opposite signs in rainfall. This footprint is generated as a dynamically coherent response of the AM system primarily to meltwater forcing and secondarily to insolation forcing and is further reinforced by atmospheric teleconnection. Hence, widespread δ18Op depletion in the AM region is accompanied by a northward migration of the westerly jet and enhanced southwesterly monsoon wind, as well as increased rainfall from South Asia (India) to northern China but decreased rainfall in southeast China.

Synchronous timing of abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period

Abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period have been detected in a global array of palaeoclimate records, but our understanding of their absolute timing and regional synchrony is incomplete. Our compilation of 63 published, independently dated speleothem records shows that abrupt warmings in Greenland were associated with synchronous climate changes across the Asian Monsoon, South American Monsoon, and European-Mediterranean regions that occurred within decades. Together with the demonstration of bipolar synchrony in atmospheric response, this provides independent evidence of synchronous high-latitude-to-tropical coupling of climate changes during these abrupt warmings. Our results provide a globally coherent framework with which to validate model simulations of abrupt climate change and to constrain ice-core chronologies.

Response to Comments by Daniel Gebregiorgis et al. “A Brief Commentary on the Interpretation of Chinese Speleothem δ18O Records as Summer Monsoon Intensity Tracers”. Quaternary 2020, 3, 7

We would like to thank Gebregiorgis et al [...]

On the glacial-interglacial variability of the Asian monsoon in speleothem δ18O records

While Asian monsoon (AM) changes have been clearly captured in Chinese speleothem oxygen isotope (δ¹⁸O) records, the lack of glacial-interglacial variability in the records remains puzzling. Here, we report speleothem δ¹⁸O records from three locations along the trajectory of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM), a major branch of the AM, and characterize AM rainfall over the past 180,000 years. We have found that the records close to the monsoon moisture source show large glacial-interglacial variability, which then decreases landward. These changes likely reflect a stronger oxygen isotope fractionation associated with progressive rainout of AM moisture during glacial periods, possibly due to a larger temperature gradient and suppressed plant transpiration. We term this effect, which counteracts the forcing of glacial boundary conditions, the moisture transport pathway effect.

Glacial-Interglacial Precipitation Changes

Glacial-interglacial cycles have constituted a primary mode of climate variability over the last 2.6 million years of Earth's history. While glacial periods cannot be seen simply as a reverse analogue of future warming, they offer an opportunity to test our understanding of the response of precipitation patterns to a much wider range of conditions than we have been able to directly observe. This review explores key features of precipitation patterns associated with glacial climates, which include drying in large regions of the tropics and wetter conditions in substantial parts of the subtropics and midlatitudes. I describe the evidence for these changes and examine the potential causes of hydrological changes during glacial periods. Central themes that emerge include the importance of atmospheric circulation changes in determining glacial-interglacial precipitation changes at the regional scale, the need to take into account climatic factors beyond local precipitation amount when interpreting proxy data, and the role of glacial conditions in suppressing the strength of Northern Hemisphere monsoon systems.

Modulation of Indian monsoon by water vapor and cloud feedback over the past 22,000 years

To predict how monsoons will evolve in the 21st century, we need to understand how they have changed in the past. In paleoclimate literature, the major focus has been on the role of solar forcing on monsoons but not on the amplification by feedbacks internal to the climate system. Here we have used the results from a transient climate simulation to show that feedbacks amplify the effect of change in insolation on the Indian summer monsoon. We show that during the deglacial (22 ka to 10 ka) monsoons were predominantly influenced by rising water vapor due to increasing sea surface temperature, whereas in the Holocene (10 ka to 0 ka) cloud feedback was more important. These results are consistent with another transient simulation, thus increasing confidence despite potential model biases. We have demonstrated that insolation drives monsoon through different pathways during cold and warm periods, thereby highlighting the changing role of internal factors.

The Asian Summer Monsoon: Teleconnections and Forcing Mechanisms—A Review from Chinese Speleothem δ18O Records

Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability significantly affects hydro-climate, and thus socio-economics, in the East Asian region, where nearly one-third of the global population resides. Over the last two decades, speleothem δ18O records from China have been utilized to reconstruct ASM variability and its underlying forcing mechanisms on orbital to seasonal timescales. Here, we use the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis database (SISAL_v1) to present an overview of hydro-climate variability related to the ASM during three periods: the late Pleistocene, the Holocene, and the last two millennia. We highlight the possible global teleconnections and forcing mechanisms of the ASM on different timescales. The longest composite stalagmite δ18O record over the past 640 kyr BP from the region demonstrates that ASM variability on orbital timescales is dominated by the 23 kyr precessional cycles, which are in phase with Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI). During the last glacial, millennial changes in the intensity of the ASM appear to be controlled by North Atlantic climate and oceanic feedbacks. During the Holocene, changes in ASM intensity were primarily controlled by NHSI. However, the spatio-temporal distribution of monsoon rain belts may vary with changes in ASM intensity on decadal to millennial timescales.

East Asian hydroclimate modulated by the position of the westerlies during Termination I

Speleothem oxygen isotope records have revolutionized our understanding of the paleo East Asian monsoon, yet there is fundamental disagreement on what they represent in terms of the hydroclimate changes. We report a multiproxy speleothem record of monsoon evolution during the last deglaciation from the middle Yangtze region, which indicates a wetter central eastern China during North Atlantic cooling episodes, despite the oxygen isotopic record suggesting a weaker monsoon. We show that this apparent contradiction can be resolved if the changes are interpreted as a lengthening of the Meiyu rains and shortened post-Meiyu stage, in accordance with a recent hypothesis. Model simulations support this interpretation and further reveal the role of the westerlies in communicating the North Atlantic influence to the East Asian climate.

The Indian monsoon variability and civilization changes in the Indian subcontinent

The vast Indo-Gangetic Plain in South Asia has been home to some of the world's oldest civilizations, whose fortunes ebbed and flowed with time-plausibly driven in part by shifts in the spatiotemporal patterns of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. We use speleothem oxygen isotope records from North India to reconstruct the monsoon's variability on socially relevant time scales, allowing us to examine the history of civilization changes in the context of varying hydroclimatic conditions over the past 5700 years. Our data suggest that significant shifts in monsoon rainfall have occurred in concert with changes in the Northern Hemisphere temperatures and the discharges of the Himalayan rivers. The close temporal relationship between these large-scale hydroclimatic changes and the intervals marking the significant sociopolitical developments of the Indus Valley and Vedic civilizations suggests a plausible role of climate change in shaping the important chapters of the history of human civilization in the Indian subcontinent.

8000-year monsoonal record from Himalaya revealing reinforcement of tropical and global climate systems since mid-Holocene

We provide the first continuous Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) climate record for the higher Himalayas (Kedarnath, India) by analyzing a ¹⁴C-dated peat sequence covering the last ~8000 years, with ~50 years temporal resolution. The ISM variability inferred using various proxies reveal striking similarity with the Greenland ice core (GISP2) temperature record and rapid denitrification changes recorded in the sediments off Peru. The Kedarnath record provides compelling evidence for a reorganization of the global climate system taking place at ~5.5 ka BP possibly after sea level stabilization and the advent of inter-annual climate variability governed by the modern ENSO phenomenon. The ISM record also captures warm-wet and cold-dry conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, respectively.

Climate variations of Central Asia on orbital to millennial timescales

The extent to which climate variability in Central Asia is causally linked to large-scale changes in the Asian monsoon on varying timescales remains a longstanding question. Here we present precisely dated high-resolution speleothem oxygen-carbon isotope and trace element records of Central Asia's hydroclimate variability from Tonnel'naya cave, Uzbekistan, and Kesang cave, western China. On orbital timescales, the supra-regional climate variance, inferred from our oxygen isotope records, exhibits a precessional rhythm, punctuated by millennial-scale abrupt climate events, suggesting a close coupling with the Asian monsoon. However, the local hydroclimatic variability at both cave sites, inferred from carbon isotope and trace element records, shows climate variations that are distinctly different from their supra-regional modes. Particularly, hydroclimatic changes in both Tonnel'naya and Kesang areas during the Holocene lag behind the supra-regional climate variability by several thousand years. These observations may reconcile the apparent out-of-phase hydroclimatic variability, inferred from the Holocene lake proxy records, between Westerly Central Asia and Monsoon Asia.

See-saw relationship of the Holocene East Asian-Australian summer monsoon

The East Asian-Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon (EAIASM) links the Earth's hemispheres and provides a heat source that drives global circulation. At seasonal and inter-seasonal timescales, the summer monsoon of one hemisphere is linked via outflows from the winter monsoon of the opposing hemisphere. Long-term phase relationships between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon (IASM) are poorly understood, raising questions of long-term adjustments to future greenhouse-triggered climate change and whether these changes could 'lock in' possible IASM and EASM phase relationships in a region dependent on monsoonal rainfall. Here we show that a newly developed nonlinear time series analysis technique allows confident identification of strong versus weak monsoon phases at millennial to sub-centennial timescales. We find a see-saw relationship over the last 9,000 years-with strong and weak monsoons opposingly phased and triggered by solar variations. Our results provide insights into centennial- to millennial-scale relationships within the wider EAIASM regime.