Early prediction of extubation failure in patients with severe pneumonia: a retrospective cohort study

Predictors of weaning failure in ventilated intensive care patients: a systematic evidence map

BACKGROUND

Ventilator weaning is of great importance for intensive care patients in order to avoid complications caused by prolonged ventilation. However, not all patients succeed in weaning immediately. Their spontaneous breathing may be insufficient, resulting in extubation failure and the subsequent need for reintubation. To identify patients at high risk for weaning failure, a variety of potential predictors has already been examined in individual studies and meta-analyses over the last decades. However, an overview of all the predictors investigated is missing.

AIM

To provide an overview of empirically investigated predictors for weaning failure.

METHODS

A systematic evidence map was developed. To this end, we conducted a systematic search in the Medline, Cochrane, and CINAHL databases in December 2023 and added a citation search and a manual search in June 2024. Studies on predictors for weaning failure in adults ventilated in the intensive care unit were included. Studies on children, outpatients, non-invasive ventilation, or explanatory factors of weaning failure were excluded. Two reviewers performed the screening and data extraction independently. Data synthesis followed an inductive approach in which the predictors were thematically analyzed, sorted, and clustered.

RESULTS

Of the 1388 records obtained, 140 studies were included in the analysis. The 112 prospective and 28 retrospective studies investigated a total of 145 predictors. These were assigned to the four central clusters 'Imaging procedures' (n = 22), 'Physiological parameters' (n = 61), 'Scores and indices' (n = 53), and 'Machine learning models' (n = 9). The most frequently investigated predictors are the rapid shallow breathing index, the diaphragm thickening fraction, the respiratory rate, the P/F ratio, and the diaphragm excursion.

CONCLUSION

Predictors for weaning failure are widely researched. To date, 145 predictors have been investigated with varying intensity in 140 studies that are in line with the current weaning definition. It is no longer just individual predictors that are investigated, but more comprehensive assessments, indices and machine learning models in the last decade. Future research should be conducted in line with international weaning definitions and further investigate poorly researched predictors. Registration, Protocol: https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/2KDYU.

The Value of Ischemic Cardiac Biomarkers to Predict Spontaneous Breathing Trial or Extubation Failure: A Systematic Review

Background: It is unclear whether other cardiac biomarkers than NT-proBNP can be useful in the risk stratification of patients weaning from mechanical ventilation. The aim of this study is to summarize the role of ischemic cardiac biomarkers in predicting spontaneous breathing trial (SBT) or extubation failure. Methods: We systematically searched Embase, MEDLINE, Web of Science, and Cochrane Central for studies published before January 2024 that reported the association between ischemic cardiac biomarkers and SBT or extubation failure. Data were extracted using a standardized form and methodological assessment was performed using the QUIPS tool. Results: Seven observational studies investigating four ischemic cardiac biomarkers (Troponin-T, Troponin-I, CK-MB, Myoglobin) were included. One study reported a higher peak Troponin-I in patients with extubation failure compared to extubation success (50 ng/L [IQR, 20-215] versus 30 ng/L [IQR, 10-86], p = 0.01). A second study found that Troponin-I measured before the SBT was higher in patients with SBT failure in comparison to patients with SBT success (100 ± 80 ng/L versus 70 ± 130 ng/L, p = 0.03). A third study reported a higher CK-MB measured at the end of the SBT in patients with weaning failure (SBT or extubation failure) in comparison to weaning success (8.77 ± 20.5 ng/mL versus 1.52 ± 1.42 ng/mL, p = 0.047). Troponin-T and Myoglobin as well as Troponin-I and CK-MB measured at other time points were not found to be related to SBT or extubation failure. However, most studies were underpowered and with high risk of bias. Conclusions: The association with SBT or extubation failure is limited for Troponin-I and CK-MB and appears absent for Troponin-T and Myoglobin, but available studies are hampered by significant methodological drawbacks. To more definitively determine the role of ischemic cardiac biomarkers, future studies should prioritize larger sample sizes, including patients at risk of cardiac disease, using stringent SBTs and structured timing of laboratory measurements before and after SBT.

Association of medical care capacity and the patient mortality of septic shock: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Hospitals with higher septic shock case volume demonstrated lower hospital mortality. We conducted this study to investigate whether this phenomenon was only caused by the increase in the number of admissions or the need to improve the medical care capacity in septic shock at the same time.

METHODS

Seven-hundred and eighty-seven hospitals from China collected in a survey from January 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021. Medical care capacity for septic shock was explored by patients with septic shock in intensive care units (ICU) divided into beds, intensivists, and nurses respectively.

MAIN RESULTS

The proportion of ICU patients with septic shock was negatively associated with the patient mortality of septic shock (Estimate [95%CI], -0.2532 [-0.5038, -0.0026]) (p-value 0.048). The ratios of patients with septic shock to beds, intensivists, and nurses were negatively associated with mortality of septic shock (Estimate [95%CI], -0.370 [-0.591, -0.150], -0.136 [-0.241, -0.031], and -0.774 [-1.158, -0.389]) (p-value 0.001, 0.011 and < 0.001). Severe pneumonia, the most common infection that caused a septic shock, correlated positively with its mortality (Estimate [95%CI], 0.1002 [0.0617, 0.1387]) (p-value < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Hospitals with higher medical care capacity for septic shock were associated with lower hospital mortality.

Development of a clinical prediction tool for extubation failure in pediatric cardiac intensive care unit

Introduction/objective

Extubation failure in pediatric patients with congenital or acquired heart diseases increases morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to develop a clinical risk score for predicting extubation failure to guide proper clinical decision-making and management.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective study. This clinical prediction score was developed using data from the Pediatric Cardiac Intensive Care Unit (PCICU) of the Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Thailand, from July 2016 to May 2022. Extubation failure was defined as the requirement for re-intubation within 48 h after extubation. Multivariable logistic regression was used for modeling. The score was evaluated in terms of discrimination and calibration.

Results

A total of 352 extubation events from 270 patients were documented. Among these, 40 events (11.36%) were extubation failure. Factors associated with extubation failure included history of pneumonia (OR: 4.14, 95% CI: 1.83-9.37, p = 0.001), history of re-intubation (OR: 5.99, 95% CI: 2.12-16.98, p = 0.001), and high saturation in physiologic cyanosis (OR: 5.94, 95% CI: 1.87-18.84, p = 0.003). These three factors were utilized to develop the risk score. The score showed acceptable discrimination with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.69-0.86), and good calibration.

Conclusion

The derived Pediatric CMU Extubation Failure Prediction Score (Ped-CMU ExFPS) could satisfactorily predict extubation failure in pediatric cardiac patients. Employing this score could promote proper personalized care. We suggest conducting further external validation studies before considering implementation in practice.

Risk Factors and Outcomes Associated With Re-Intubation Secondary to Respiratory Failure in Patients With COVID-19 ARDS

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 is associated with variable symptoms and clinical sequelae. Studies have examined the clinical course of these patients, finding a prolonged need for invasive ventilation and variable re-intubation rates. However, no research has investigated factors and outcomes related to re-intubation secondary to respiratory failure among patients with COVID-19 with ARDS.

METHODS

We conducted a single-center, retrospective study on subjects intubated for ARDS secondary to COVID-19. The primary outcome was re-intubation status; secondary outcomes were hospital and ICU stay and mortality. Data were analyzed using between-group comparisons using chi-square testing for categorical information and Student t test for quantitative data. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was performed to determine factors related to re-intubation and mortality as dependent variables.

RESULTS

One hundred and fourteen subjects were included, of which 32% required re-intubation. No between-group differences were detected for most demographic variables or comorbidities. No differences were detected in COVID-19 treatments, noninvasive respiratory support, mechanical circulatory support, or duration of ventilation. Midazolam (odds ratio [OR] 5.55 [95% CI 1.83-16.80], P = .002), fentanyl (OR 3.64 [95% CI 1.26-10.52], P = .02), and APACHE II scores (OR 1.08 [95% CI 1.030-1.147], P = .005) were independently associated with re-intubation (area under the curve = 0.81). Re-intubated subjects had extended hospital (36.7 ± 22.7 d vs 26.1 ± 12.1 d, P = .01) and ICU (29.6 ± 22.4 d vs 15.8 ± 10.4 d, P < .001) stays. More subjects died who failed extubation (49% vs 3%, P < .001). Age (OR 1.07 [95% CI 1.02-1.23], P = .005), male sex (OR 4.9 [95% CI 1.08-22.35], P = .041), positive Confusion Assessment Method for the ICU (CAM-ICU) (OR 5.43 [95% CI 1.58-18.62], P = .007), and re-intubation (OR 12.75 [95% CI 2.80-57.10], P < .001) were independently associated with death (area under the curve = 0.93).

CONCLUSIONS

Midazolam, fentanyl, and higher APACHE II scores were independently associated with re-intubation secondary to respiratory failure in subjects with COVID-19-related ARDS. Furthermore, age, male sex, positive CAM-ICU, and re-intubation were independently associated with mortality. Re-intubation also correlated with prolonged hospital and ICU stay.

A new index, Respiratory Insufficiency index and Modified Early Warning Scores predict extubation failure

Background

Extubation failure occurs in 5%-20% of patients and is associated with poor clinical outcomes. The primary aim of this project was to determine the predictive ability of the Respiratory Insufficiency (RI) index, Respiratory Oxygenation (ROX) index and Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) in identifying extubation failure.

Methods

This was a secondary analysis of a prior cross-sectional retrospective study conducted from February 2018 through December 2018 among adult subjects who received mechanical ventilation for more than 24 h. Extubation failure was defined as the need for reintubation or rescue non-invasive ventilation (NIV) within 48 h after planned extubation. Univariate analysis and logistic regression were used to identify the predictors and final model was validated using 10-fold cross validation. Nomogram was constructed based on the final model.

Results

Of 216 enrolled subjects, 46 (21.3%) experienced extubation failure. The median RI index 1-h post extubation was 20 [interquartile range [IQR] 16.33-24.24] for success group and 27.02 [IQR 22.42-33.83] for the failure group (P<0.001). The median ROX index 1-h post extubation was 16.66 [IQR 12.57-19.84] for success group and 11.11 [IQR 8.09-14.67] for failure group (P<0.001). The median MEWS 1-h post extubation was 2 [IQR 1-3] for the success group and 4 [IQR 3-5] for the failure group (P<0.001). In multivariable analysis, age >60 years [OR 3.89 (95% CI 1.56-9.73); P=0.004], MEWS >4 [OR 4.01 (95% CI (1.59-10.14); P=0.003] and, RI index >20 [OR 4.50 (95% CI 1.43-14.21); P=0.010] were independently associated with extubation failure.

Conclusion

In the present study, RI index and MEWS were independently associated with predicting extubation failure within 1 h of extubation. A prospective validation study is warranted to establish the role of these indices in predicting extubation outcome.

The risk factors of reintubation in intensive care unit patients on mechanical ventilation: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To assess risk factors of reintubation in intensive care unit patients on mechanical ventilation.

METHODOLOGY

We conducted a systematic review of literature (inception to May 2022) and a meta-analysis. Data are reported as pooled odds ratios for categorical variables and mean differences for continuous variables.

RESULTS

A total of 2459 studies were retrieved of which 38 studies were included in a meta-analysis involving 22,304 patients. Risk factors identified were: older age, higher APACHE II scores, COPD, pneumonia, shock, low SaO₂, low PaO₂, low PaO₂/FiO₂, low hemoglobin, low albumin, high brain natriuretic peptide, low pH, high respiratory rate, low tidal volume, a higher rapid shallow breathing index, a lower vital capacity, a higher number of spontaneous breathing trials, prolonged length of mechanical ventilation, weak cough, a reduced patient's cough peak flow and positive cuff leak test. Subgroup analysis showed that risk factors substantially overlap when reintubation was considered within 48 hours or within 72 hours after extubation.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified 21 factors associated with increased risk for reintubation. These allow to recognize the patient at high risk for reintubation at an early stage. Future studies may combine these factors to develop comprehensive predictive algorithms allowing appropriate vigilance.

Predictive factors of extubation failure in pediatric cardiac intensive care unit: A single-center retrospective study from Thailand

Introduction/objective

Extubation failure increases morbidity and mortality in pediatric cardiac patients, a unique population including those with congenital heart disease or acquired heart disease. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive factors of extubation failure in pediatric cardiac patients and to determine the association between extubation failure and clinical outcomes.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective study in the pediatric cardiac intensive care unit (PCICU) of the Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand, from July 2016 to June 2021. Extubation failure was defined as the re-insertion of the endotracheal tube within 48 hours after extubation. Multivariable log-binomial regression with generalized estimating equations (GEE) was performed to explore the predictive factors associated with extubation failure.

Results

We collected 318 extubation events from 246 patients. Of these, 35 (11%) events were extubation failures. In physiologic cyanosis, the extubation failure group had significantly higher SpO₂ than the extubation success group (P < 0.001). The predictive factors associated with extubation failure included a history of pneumonia before extubation (RR 3.09, 95% CI 1.54-6.23, P = 0.002), stridor after extubation (RR 2.57, 95% CI 1.44-4.56, P = 0.001), history of re-intubation (RR 2.24, 95% CI 1.21-4.12, P = 0.009), and palliative surgery (RR 1.87, 95% CI 1.02-3.43, P = 0.043).

Conclusion

Extubation failure was identified in 11% of extubation attempts in pediatric cardiac patients. The extubation failure was associated with a longer duration of PCICU stay but not with mortality. Patients with a history of pneumonia before extubation, history of re-intubation, post-operative palliative surgery, and post-extubation stridor should receive careful consideration before extubation and close monitoring afterward. Additionally, patients with physiologic cyanosis may require balanced circulation via regulated SpO₂.

Low BALF CD4 T cells count is associated with extubation failure and mortality in critically ill covid-19 pneumonia

BACKGROUND

Critically ill COVID-19 pneumonia is one of the main causes of extubation failure and mortality. Understanding clinical characteristics, laboratory profiles and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) immunopathology may help improve outcomes in critically ill COVID-19 pneumonia. We aimed to describe clinical characteristics, laboratory profiles and BALF immunopathology based on lung severity in critically ill COVID-19 pneumonia patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Forty critically ill severe pneumonia patients requiring invasive mechanical ventilation in Cipto Mangunkusumo General (National Tertiary Referral Hospital), Indonesia within November 2020-January 2021 were enrolled in this study. Early BALF collection was performed after patients' intubation. Clinical characteristics, laboratory profiles and BALF biomarkers (sTREM-1, alveolar macrophage amount and function, IL-6, IL-17, CD4 T-cells, Tregs, SP-A and Caspase-3) were observed and analysed. Outcomes were measured based on extubation failure (within 19 days) and 28-days mortality. Univariate and bivariate analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Early bronchoscopy was performed in an average of 4 h (SD = 0.82) after patients' intubation. Twenty-three and twenty-two patients had extubation failure (within 19 days) and 28-days mortality, respectively. In the baseline clinical characteristics of critically ill COVID-19 patients, we found no significant differences in the extubation and mortality status groups. In the laboratory profiles of critically ill COVID-19 patients, we found no significant differences in the extubation status groups. In critically ill COVID-19 pneumonia patients, there was a significant high D-dimer levels in survived group (p = .027), a significant low BALF CD4 T-cells count in the right lung (p = .001) and a significant low BALF CD4 T-cells count (p = .010 and p = .018) in severely affected lung with extubation failure and mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

BALF CD4 T-cells count evaluation of severely affected lung is associated with early extubation failure and mortality in critically ill COVID-19 pneumonia patients. KEY MESSAGEFew studies have been conducted during the peak COVID-19 period analysing combined bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) immunopathology biomarkers within four hours of intubation to assess extubation failure and mortality. In this study, we reported eight BALF immunopathology biomarkers (sTREM-1, alveolar macrophage, IL-6, IL-17, CD4 T-cells, Tregs, SP-A and Caspase-3).We found significantly low BALF CD4 T-cells count in the right lung, and low BALF CD4 T-cells count in severely affected lung of critically ill COVID-19 pneumonia patients in extubation failure and mortality.

Early Identification of Extubation Failure Using Integrated Pulmonary Index and High-Risk Factors

BACKGROUND

Early detection and prevention of extubation failure offers the potential to improve patient outcome. The primary aim of this study was to compare the predictive ability of the Integrated Pulmonary Index and presence of high-risk factors in determining extubation failure.

METHODS

A retrospective cross-sectional study of intubated adult subjects receiving mechanical ventilation for > 24 h was conducted at an academic medical center. The primary outcome was extubation failure, defined as the need for re-intubation or rescue noninvasive ventilation within 48 h after planned extubation.

RESULTS

Among 216 subjects, 170 (78.7%) were successfully extubated, and 46 (21.3%) failed extubation. Extubation failure group had higher body mass index (26.21 vs 28.5 kg/m², P = .033), rapid shallow breathing index during spontaneous breathing trial (43 vs 53.5, P = .02), and APACHE II score (11.86 vs 15.73, P < .001). Presence of ≥3 high-risk factors (odds ratio 3.11 [95% CI 1.32-7.31], P = .009), APACHE II > 12 on extubation day (odds ratio 2.98 [95% CI 1.22-7.27], P = .02), and Integrated Pulmonary Index decrease within 1 h after extubation (odds ratio 7.74 [95% CI 3.45-17.38], P < .001) were independently associated with extubation failure. The failed extubation group had higher ICU mortality (8.8% vs 19.6%; absolute difference 10.7% [95% CI -1.9% to 23.4%], P = .040) and hospital mortality (10% vs 22%; absolute difference 16.1% [95% CI 2.2-30%], P = .005) compared to the successful group.

CONCLUSIONS

Among subjects receiving mechanical ventilation for > 24 h, decreasing Integrated Pulmonary Index within the first hour postextubation was a predictor of extubation failure and was superior to other weaning variables collected in this retrospective study. The presence of ≥ 3 high-risk factors was also independently associated with extubation failure. Future clinical studies are required to prospectively test the ability of postextubation Integrated Pulmonary Index monitoring to guide additional interventions designed to reduce re-intubation rates and improve patient outcome.

Clinical study of Dysfunctional Ventilatory Weaning Response in critically ill patients

Objective:

to clinically validate the nursing diagnosis of Dysfunctional Ventilatory Weaning Response in adult patients admitted to Intensive Care Units.

Method:

a concurrent cohort performed with 93 patients admitted to Intensive Care Units. The incidence and incidence density of the diagnosis were estimated, its related factors were identified based on bivariate analysis and clinical indicators for determining its occurrence, according to the global and temporal presentation.

Results:

the overall incidence of the diagnosis was 44.09% and the incidence density was 14.49 occurrences for every 100 extubations/day. The factors related to the diagnosis were the following: age, clinical severity, fluid balance, oliguria, hemodialysis, edema in upper/lower limbs, anasarca, number of antibiotics, hypothermia, hyperthermia, amount of secretion, muscle retraction, anxiety score, heart rate, use of vasopressors and non-invasive ventilation after extubation. The clinical indicators most frequently identified for determining the diagnosis were the following: tachypnea, drop of saturation and tachycardia. Temporal progression in the severity of these manifestations was found.

Conclusion:

the Dysfunctional Ventilatory Weaning Response is a common finding in critically ill patients. Some components of the diagnosis of the NANDA-International (2018) version could be clinically validated. It is noteworthy that there are variables not yet described in the taxonomy, demonstrating the need to review this nursing diagnosis.

Novel mechanical ventilator weaning predictive model

Mechanical ventilation (MV) is a common life support system in intensive care units. Accurate identification of patients who are capable of being extubated can shorten the MV duration and potentially reduce MV-related complications. Therefore, prediction of patients who can successfully be weaned from the mechanical ventilator is an important issue. The electronic medical record system (EMRs) has been applied and developed in respiratory therapy in recent years. It can increase the quality of critical care. However, there is no perfect index available that can be used to determine successful MV weaning. Our purpose was to establish a novel model that can predict successful weaning from MV. Patients' information was collected from the Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital respiratory therapy EMRs. In this retrospective study, we collected basic information, classic weaning index, and respiratory parameters during spontaneous breathing trials of patients eligible for extubation. According to the results of extubation, patients were divided into successful extubation and extubation failure groups. This retrospective cohort study included 169 patients. Statistical analysis revealed successful extubation predictors, including sex; height; oxygen saturation; Glasgow Coma Scale; Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score; pulmonary disease history; and the first, 30th, 60th, and 90th minute respiratory parameters. We built a predictive model based on these predictors. The area under the curve of this model was 0.889. We established a model for predicting the successful extubation. This model was novel to combine with serial weaning parameters and thus can help intensivists to make extubation decisions easily.