Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems through the lens of the size spectrum

Steeper size spectra with decreasing phytoplankton biomass indicate strong trophic amplification and future fish declines

Under climate change, model ensembles suggest that declines in phytoplankton biomass amplify into greater reductions at higher trophic levels, with serious implications for fisheries and carbon storage. However, the extent and mechanisms of this trophic amplification vary greatly among models, and validation is problematic. In situ size spectra offer a novel alternative, comparing biomass of small and larger organisms to quantify the net efficiency of energy transfer through natural food webs that are already challenged with multiple climate change stressors. Our global compilation of pelagic size spectrum slopes supports trophic amplification empirically, independently from model simulations. Thus, even a modest (16%) decline in phytoplankton this century would magnify into a 38% decline in supportable biomass of fish within the intensively-fished mid-latitude ocean. We also show that this amplification stems not from thermal controls on consumers, but mainly from temperature or nutrient controls that structure the phytoplankton baseline of the food web. The lack of evidence for direct thermal effects on size structure contrasts with most current thinking, based often on more acute stress experiments or shorter-timescale responses. Our synthesis of size spectra integrates these short-term dynamics, revealing the net efficiency of food webs acclimating and adapting to climatic stressors.

Physiological response of Symbiodiniaceae to thermal stress: Reactive oxygen species, photosynthesis, and relative cell size

This study investigates the physiological response to heat stress of three genetically different Symbiodiniaceae strains isolated from the scleractinian coral Mussismilia braziliensis, endemic of the Abrolhos Bank, Brazil. Cultures of two Symbiodinium sp. and one Cladocopium sp. were exposed to a stepwise increase in temperature (2°C every second day) ranging from 26°C (modal temperature in Abrolhos) to 32°C (just above the maximum temperature registered in Abrolhos during the third global bleaching event-TGBE). After the cultures reached their final testing temperature, reactive oxygen species (ROS) production, single cell attributes (relative cell size and chlorophyll fluorescence), and photosynthetic efficiency (effective (Y(II)) and maximum (Fv/Fm) quantum yields) were measured within 4 h and 72 h. Non-photochemical coefficient (NPQ) was estimated based on fluorescence values. Population average ROS production was variable across strains and exposure times, reaching up a 2-fold increase at 32°C in one of the Symbiodinium sp. strains. A marked intrapopulation difference was observed in ROS production, with 5 to 25% of the cells producing up to 10 times more than the population average, highlighting the importance of single cell approaches to assess population physiology. Average cell size increases at higher temperatures, likely resulting from cell cycle arrest, whereas chlorophyll fluorescence decreased, especially in 4 h, indicating a photoacclimation response. The conditions tested do not seem to have elicited loss of photosynthetic efficiency nor the activation of non-photochemical mechanisms in the cells. Our results unveiled a generalized thermotolerance in three Symbiodiniaceae strains originated from Abrolhos' corals. Inter and intra-specific variability could be detected, likely reflecting the genetic differences among the strains.

Thermal dependence of Daphnia life history reveals asymmetries between key vital rates

Temperature variation affects virtually every aspect of ectotherms' ecological performance, such as their foraging rate, reproduction, and survival. Although these changes influence what happens at higher levels of organizations, such as populations and communities, qualitative changes in dynamics usually require some degree of asymmetry between key vital rates, i.e. that different vital rates, such as growth, development, fecundity and mortality rates, respond differently to temperature. In order to identify possible asymmetries among vital rates and/or life stages, we characterized the thermal response of individuals a clone of Daphnia sinensis, drawn from a high-mountain environment in Taiwan, and examined the temperature dependence of growth, maturation, reproduction, and mortality rates, as well as fitness measures (r and R₀) at eight temperatures. Daphnia sinensis was able to maintain reproductive success over a broad range of temperatures, much wider than the one experienced in its environment. However, negative effects of temperature were perceptible at temperatures much lower than the highest one at which they can achieve reproductive success. Adult mortality greatly increased for temperatures above 23 °C, and other vital rates started to decelerate, resulting in a large drop in lifetime reproductive success. This finding implies that D. sinensis may be able to persist over a wide range of temperatures, but also that it may become more sensitive to the detrimental effect of species interactions at increased temperatures. Different vital rates responded relatively similarly at low temperatures, but the degree of asymmetry among these rates was much more pronounced at higher temperatures. In particular, rates associated with adult performance decelerated more strongly than juveniles' rates. These findings indicate that elevated temperatures affect the balance between juvenile and adult performance, which is known to have a crucial role in Daphnia population dynamics. We discuss the implications of these results for the dynamics of structured populations.

Mercury and methylmercury in birds and marine mammals inhabiting the coastal zone of the two King George Island's bays: Admiralty and King George Bay (maritime Antarctic)

The Antarctic is particularly sensitive to mercury (Hg) pollution and even low levels of Hg may cause significant damage in this fragile environment. The aim of this study was to investigate routes of mercury and methylmercury (MeHg) elimination by animals inhabiting the maritime Antarctic. The results showed that organisms at the highest trophic level (elephant seal) have the highest concentrations of THg and MeHg in both excrement and fur samples. Interspecies differences in mercury levels were observed in materials sourced from penguins of the genus Pysgocelis.¹³C and ¹⁵N values confirmed differences in the diets and foraging areas, which may affect Hg concentration in the tissues we analyzed. Time variations in THg and MeHg concentrations were observed in the excrement of the penguin species, which may be due to periods of fasting and intense feeding closely related to egg laying and moulting stages.

Larger but younger fish when growth outpaces mortality in heated ecosystem

Ectotherms are predicted to 'shrink' with global warming, in line with general growth models and the temperature-size rule (TSR), both predicting smaller adult sizes with warming. However, they also predict faster juvenile growth rates and thus larger size-at-age of young organisms. Hence, the result of warming on the size-structure of a population depends on the interplay between how mortality rate, juvenile- and adult growth rates are affected by warming. Here, we use two-decade long time series of biological samples from a unique enclosed bay heated by cooling water from a nearby nuclear power plant to become 5-10 °C warmer than its reference area. We used growth-increment biochronologies (12,658 reconstructed length-at-age estimates from 2426 individuals) to quantify how >20 years of warming has affected body growth, size-at-age, and catch to quantify mortality rates and population size- and age structure of Eurasian perch (Perca fluviatilis). In the heated area, growth rates were faster for all sizes, and hence size-at-age was larger for all ages, compared to the reference area. While mortality rates were also higher (lowering mean age by 0.4 years), the faster growth rates lead to a 2 cm larger mean size in the heated area. Differences in the size-spectrum exponent (describing how the abundance declines with size) were less clear statistically. Our analyses reveal that mortality, in addition to plastic growth and size-responses, is a key factor determining the size structure of populations exposed to warming. Understanding the mechanisms by which warming affects the size- and the age structure of populations is critical for predicting the impacts of climate change on ecological functions, interactions, and dynamics.

High trophic level feedbacks on global ocean carbon uptake and marine ecosystem dynamics under climate change

Despite recurrent emphasis on their ecological and economic roles, the importance of high trophic levels (HTLs) on ocean carbon dynamics, through passive (fecal pellet production, carcasses) and active (vertical migration) processes, is still largely unexplored, notably under climate change scenarios. In addition, HTLs impact the ecosystem dynamics through top-down effects on lower trophic levels, which might change under anthropogenic influence. Here we compare two simulations of a global biogeochemical-ecosystem model with and without feedbacks from large marine animals. We show that these large marine animals affect the evolution of low trophic level biomasses, hence net primary production and most certainly ecosystem equilibrium, but seem to have little influence on the 21st-century anthropogenic carbon uptake under the RCP8.5 scenario. These results provide new insights regarding the expectations for trophic amplification of climate change through the marine trophic chain and regarding the necessity to explicitly represent marine animals in Earth System Models.

Temperature impacts on fish physiology and resource abundance lead to faster growth but smaller fish sizes and yields under warming

Resolving the combined effect of climate warming and exploitation in a food web context is key for predicting future biomass production, size-structure and potential yields of marine fishes. Previous studies based on mechanistic size-based food web models have found that bottom-up processes are important drivers of size-structure and fisheries yield in changing climates. However, we know less about the joint effects of 'bottom-up' and physiological effects of temperature; how do temperature effects propagate from individual-level physiology through food webs and alter the size-structure of exploited species in a community? Here, we assess how a species-resolved size-based food web is affected by warming through both these pathways and by exploitation. We parameterize a dynamic size spectrum food web model inspired by the offshore Baltic Sea food web, and investigate how individual growth rates, size-structure, and relative abundances of species and yields are affected by warming. The magnitude of warming is based on projections by the regional coupled model system RCA4-NEMO and the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, and we evaluate different scenarios of temperature dependence on fish physiology and resource productivity. When accounting for temperature-effects on physiology in addition to on basal productivity, projected size-at-age in 2050 increases on average for all fish species, mainly for young fish, compared to scenarios without warming. In contrast, size-at-age decreases when temperature affects resource dynamics only, and the decline is largest for young fish. Faster growth rates due to warming, however, do not always translate to larger yields, as lower resource carrying capacities with increasing temperature tend to result in decline in the abundance of larger fish and hence spawning stock biomass. These results suggest that to understand how global warming affects the size structure of fish communities, both direct metabolic effects and indirect effects of temperature via basal resources must be accounted for.

Community size structure varies with predator-prey size relationships and temperature across Australian reefs

Climate change and fisheries exploitation are dramatically changing the abundances, species composition, and size spectra of fish communities. We explore whether variation in 'abundance size spectra', a widely studied ecosystem feature, is influenced by a parameter theorized to govern the shape of size-structured ecosystems-the relationship between the sizes of predators and their prey (predator-prey mass ratios, or PPMRs). PPMR estimates are lacking for avast number of fish species, including at the scale of trophic guilds. Using measurements of 8128 prey items in gut contents of 97 reef fish species, we established predator-prey mass ratios (PPMRs) for four major trophic guilds (piscivores, invertivores, planktivores, and herbivores) using linear mixed effects models. To assess the theoretical predictions that higher community-level PPMRs leads to shallower size spectrum slopes, we compared observations of both ecosystem metrics for ~15,000 coastal reef sites distributed around Australia. PPMRs of individual fishes were remarkably high (median ~71,000), with significant variation between different trophic guilds (~890 for piscivores; ~83,000 for planktivores), and ~8700 for whole communities. Community-level PPMRs were positively related to size spectrum slopes, broadly consistent with theory, however, this pattern was also influenced by the latitudinal temperature gradient. Tropical reefs showed a stronger relationship between community-level PPMRs and community size spectrum slopes than temperate reefs. The extent that these patterns apply outside Australia and consequences for community structure and dynamics are key areas for future investigation.

The global ocean size spectrum from bacteria to whales

It has long been hypothesized that aquatic biomass is evenly distributed among logarithmic body mass size classes. Although this community structure has been observed regionally, mostly among plankton groups, its generality has never been formally tested across all marine life over the global ocean, nor have the impacts of humans on it been globally assessed. Here, we bring together data at the global scale to test the hypothesis from bacteria to whales. We find that biomass within most order of magnitude size classes is indeed remarkably constant, near 1 gigatonne (Gt) wet weight (10¹⁵ g), but bacteria and large marine mammals are markedly above and below this value, respectively. Furthermore, human impacts appear to have significantly truncated the upper one-third of the spectrum. This dramatic alteration to what is possibly life’s largest-scale regularity underscores the global extent of human activities.

The Eco-Evo Mandala: Simplifying Bacterioplankton Complexity into Ecohealth Signatures

The microbiome emits informative signals of biological organization and environmental pressure that aid ecosystem monitoring and prediction. Are the many signals reducible to a habitat-specific portfolio that characterizes ecosystem health? Does an optimally structured microbiome imply a resilient microbiome? To answer these questions, we applied our novel Eco-Evo Mandala to bacterioplankton data from four habitats within the Great Barrier Reef, to explore how patterns in community structure, function and genetics signal habitat-specific organization and departures from theoretical optimality. The Mandala revealed communities departing from optimality in habitat-specific ways, mostly along structural and functional traits related to bacterioplankton abundance and interaction distributions (reflected by ϵ and λ as power law and exponential distribution parameters), which are not linearly associated with each other. River and reef communities were similar in their relatively low abundance and interaction disorganization (low ϵ and λ) due to their protective structured habitats. On the contrary, lagoon and estuarine inshore reefs appeared the most disorganized due to the ocean temperature and biogeochemical stress. Phylogenetic distances (D) were minimally informative in characterizing bacterioplankton organization. However, dominant populations, such as Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, and Cyanobacteria, were largely responsible for community patterns, being generalists with a large functional gene repertoire (high D) that increases resilience. The relative balance of these populations was found to be habitat-specific and likely related to systemic environmental stress. The position on the Mandala along the three fundamental traits, as well as fluctuations in this ecological state, conveys information about the microbiome's health (and likely ecosystem health considering bacteria-based multitrophic dependencies) as divergence from the expected relative optimality. The Eco-Evo Mandala emphasizes how habitat and the microbiome's interaction network topology are first- and second-order factors for ecosystem health evaluation over taxonomic species richness. Unhealthy microbiome communities and unbalanced microbes are identified not by macroecological indicators but by mapping their impact on the collective proportion and distribution of interactions, which regulates the microbiome's ecosystem function.

Mercury biomagnification in a Southern Ocean food web

Biomagnification of mercury (Hg) in the Scotia Sea food web of the Southern Ocean was examined using the stable isotope ratios of nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) and carbon (δ¹³C) as proxies for trophic level and feeding habitat, respectively. Total Hg and stable isotopes were measured in samples of particulate organic matter (POM), zooplankton, squid, myctophid fish, notothenioid fish and seabird tissues collected in two years (austral summers 2007/08 and 2016/17). Overall, there was extensive overlap in δ¹³C values across taxonomic groups suggesting similarities in habitats, with the exception of the seabirds, which showed some differences, possibly due to the type of tissue analysed (feathers instead of muscle). δ¹⁵N showed increasing enrichment across groups in the order POM to zooplankton to squid to myctophid fish to notothenioid fish to seabirds. There were significant differences in δ¹⁵N and δ¹³C values among species within taxonomic groups, reflecting inter-specific variation in diet. Hg concentrations increased with trophic level, with the lowest values in POM (0.0005 ± 0.0002 μg g^-1 dw) and highest values in seabirds (3.88 ± 2.41 μg g^-1 in chicks of brown skuas Stercorarius antarcticus). Hg concentrations tended to be lower in 2016/17 than in 2007/08 for mid-trophic level species (squid and fish), but the opposite was found for top predators (i.e. seabirds), which had higher levels in the 2016/17 samples. This may reflect an interannual shift in the Scotia Sea marine food web, caused by the reduced availability of a key prey species, Antarctic krill Euphausia superba. In 2016/17, seabirds would have been forced to feed on higher trophic-level prey, such as myctophids, that have higher Hg burdens. These results suggest that changes in the food web are likely to affect the pathway of mercury to Southern Ocean top predators.

Housekeeping in the Hydrosphere: Microbial Cooking, Cleaning, and Control under Stress

Who's cooking, who's cleaning, and who's got the remote control within the waters blanketing Earth? Anatomically tiny, numerically dominant microbes are the crucial "homemakers" of the watery household. Phytoplankton's culinary abilities enable them to create food by absorbing sunlight to fix carbon and release oxygen, making microbial autotrophs top-chefs in the aquatic kitchen. However, they are not the only bioengineers that balance this complex household. Ubiquitous heterotrophic microbes including prokaryotic bacteria and archaea (both "bacteria" henceforth), eukaryotic protists, and viruses, recycle organic matter and make inorganic nutrients available to primary producers. Grazing protists compete with viruses for bacterial biomass, whereas mixotrophic protists produce new organic matter as well as consume microbial biomass. When viruses press remote-control buttons, by modifying host genomes or lysing them, the outcome can reverberate throughout the microbial community and beyond. Despite recognition of the vital role of microbes in biosphere housekeeping, impacts of anthropogenic stressors and climate change on their biodiversity, evolution, and ecological function remain poorly understood. How trillions of the smallest organisms in Earth's largest ecosystem respond will be hugely consequential. By making the study of ecology personal, the "housekeeping" perspective can provide better insights into changing ecosystem structure and function at all scales.

Spatial drivers of instability in marine size-spectrum ecosystems

Size-spectrum models are a recent class of models describing the dynamics of a whole community based on a description of individual organisms. The models are motivated by marine ecosystems where they cover the size range from multicellular plankton to the largest fish. We propose to extend the size-spectrum model with spatial components. The spatial dynamics is governed by a random motion and a directed movement in the direction of increased fitness, which we call 'fitness-taxis'. We use the model to explore whether spatial irregularities of marine communities can occur due to the internal dynamics of predator-prey interactions and spatial movements. This corresponds to a pattern-formation analysis generalized to an entire ecosystem but is not limited to one prey and one predator population. The analyses take the form of Fourier analysis and numerical experiments. Results show that diffusion always stabilizes the equilibrium but fitness-taxis destabilizes it, leading to non-stationary spatially inhomogeneous population densities, which are travelling in size. However, there is a strong asymmetry between fitness-induced destabilizing effects and diffusion-induced stabilizing effects with the latter dominating over the former. These findings reveal that fitness taxis acts as a possible mechanism behind pattern formations in ecosystems with high diversity of organism sizes, which can drive the emergence of spatial heterogeneity even in a spatially homogeneous environment.

The fecal iron pump: Global impact of animals on the iron stoichiometry of marine sinking particles

The impact of marine animals on the iron (Fe) cycle has mostly been considered in terms of their role in supplying dissolved Fe to phytoplankton at the ocean surface. However, little attention has been paid to how the transformation of ingested food into fecal matter by animals alters the relative Fe-richness of particles, which could have consequences for Fe cycling in the water column and for the food quality of suspended and sinking particles. Here, we compile observations to show that the Fe to carbon (C) ratio (Fe:C) of fecal pellets of various marine animals is consistently enriched compared to their food, often by more than an order of magnitude. We explain this consistent enrichment by the low assimilation rates that have been measured for Fe in animals, together with the respiratory conversion of dietary organic C to excreted dissolved inorganic C. Furthermore, we calculate that this enrichment should cause animal fecal matter to constitute a major fraction of the global sinking flux of biogenic Fe, a component of the marine iron cycle that has been previously unappreciated. We also estimate that this fecal iron pump provides an important source of Fe to marine animals via coprophagy, particularly in the mesopelagic, given that fecal matter Fe:C can be many-fold higher than the Fe:C of local phytoplankton. Our results imply that the fecal iron pump is important both for global Fe cycling and for the iron nutrition of pelagic and mesopelagic communities.

Latitudinal consistency of biomass size spectra - benthic resilience despite environmental, taxonomic and functional trait variability

Global warming is expected to cause reductions in organism body size, a fundamental biological unit important in determining biological processes. Possible effects of increasing temperature on biomass size spectra in coastal benthic communities were investigated. We hypothesized higher proportions of smaller size classes in warmer conditions. Soft bottom infauna samples were collected in six Norwegian and Svalbard fjords, spanning wide latitudinal (60-81°N) and bottom water temperature gradients (from -2 to 8 °C). Investigated fjords differed in terms of environmental settings (e.g., pigments or organic carbon in sediments). The slopes of normalised biomass size spectra (NBSS) did not differ among the fjords, while the benthic biomass and NBSS intercepts varied and were related to chlorophyll a and δ13C in sediments. The size spectra based on both abundance and biomass remained consistent, regardless of the strong variability in macrofauna taxonomic and functional trait composition. Variable relationships between temperature and body size were noted for particular taxa. Our results indicate that while benthic biomass depends on the nutritional quality of organic matter, its partitioning among size classes is consistent and independent of environmental and biological variability. The observed size structure remains a persistent feature of studied communities and may be resilient to major climatic changes.

The breadth of climate change impacts on biological systems

Human activity is driving climate change. This is affecting and will affect many aspects of life on earth. The breadth of its impacts is very wide and covers human, animal and plant health, and also the planet's biodiversity and the services that deliver benefits to people from natural capital. Finding solutions to the challenge of climate change will require multidisciplinary action in which the life sciences have a major role to play as this issue of Emerging Topics in Life Sciences indicates. More process and mechanistic knowledge could underpin solutions or even provide early warning of impacts. Any solutions will need to be developed and deployed in ways that gain and maintain public support.