Application of a simple multiplicative spatio-temporal stream water quality model to the river Conwy, North Wales

We use a simple multiplicative spatio-temporal model to describe variability in a sequence of water quality monitoring data from headwater streams in the Conwy catchment, North Wales. The spatial component of the model treats concentrations as due to simple mixing of a small number of distinct source types, each associated with particular upstream catchment characteristics. The temporal component allows concentration variability due to seasonal or hydrological change. We apply the model using three candidate catchment characteristic classifications to generate mixing concentrations, and a seasonal component to describe temporal variability, and test a range of sub-models. We identify a cross-classification of soil and land cover as providing the best spatial indicator of water quality of the classifications considered. The spatial model based on a selected grouped cross-classification was shown to account for between 35% and 90% of the spatial variability and the seasonal model accounted for between 45% and 100% of the temporal variability in the data. Analysis of residuals showed an inverse relationship between DOC and sulphate and between hydrogen ion concentration and calcium and magnesium. We also found residual correlations between sites which are strongly related to landscape class. These are attributed to landscape class by time interactions which are not accounted for in the simple multiplicative model.

A critical re-evaluation of the prediction of alkalinity and base cation chemistry from BGS sediment composition data

The model of Begum et al. (2010) that predicts alkalinity and Ca and Mg concentrations in river water from available sediment composition data has been critically re-evaluated using an independent validation data set. The results support the hypothesis that readily available stream water sediment elemental composition data are useful for prediction of mean and minimum concentrations of alkalinity and Ca and Mg in river water throughout the River Derwent catchment in North Yorkshire without requiring land-use data inputs as stream water sediment composition reflects all aspects of the riparian zone soil system, including land-use. However, it was shown for alkalinity prediction that rainfall exerts a significant dilution effect and should be incorporated into the model in addition to flow path-weighted sediments Ca% and Mg%. The results also strongly suggest that in catchments with substantial rough moorland land-use neutralization of organic acids consumes alkalinity and this fact should be considered in any future development of the model.

Predicting Gran alkalinity and calcium concentrations in river waters over a national scale using a novel modification to the G-BASH model

Monthly stream water calcium and Gran alkalinity concentration data from 11 sub-catchments of the Nether Beck in the English Lake District have been used to appraise the transferability of the Scottish, River Dee-based G-BASH model. Readily available riparian zone geochemistry and flow paths were used initially to predict minimum and mean stream water concentrations at the Nether Beck, based on calibration equations from the River Dee catchment data. Predicted values significantly exceeded observed values. Differences in runoff between the two areas, leading to a dilution effect in the Nether Beck, explained most of the difference between observed and predicted values. Greater acid deposition in the Lake District also reduced stream water Gran alkalinity concentrations in that area. If regional differences in precipitation, evapotranspiration and pollutant deposition are incorporated into the model, it may then be used reliably to predict catchment susceptibility to acidification over a wide regional (national) scale.

Macroinvertebrate response to acid mine drainage: community metrics and on-line behavioural toxicity bioassay

The hypothesis is tested that toxicity of acid mine drainage can be detected by a selection of existing macroinvertebrate community and bioindicator metrices supplemented by toxicity tests with the local mosquitofish Gambusia holbrooki Girard and the shrimp Atyaephyra desmaresti Millet. The behavioural responses of A. desmaresti to acid mine drainage were recorded in the Multispecies Freshwater Biomonitor, based on behaviour and survival as parameters. Bioassessment methods were based on community diversity, structure, function, and bioindicators and supplemented by chemical analysis (temperature, pH, metals). The Biological Monitoring Working Party adapted for the Iberian Peninsula, the number of predators (Coleoptera, Hemiptera) and the number of Ephemeroptera and Trichoptera taxa differentiated the sites well. The on-line toxicity test revealed pH-dependent acute toxicity of the acid mine drainage for the shrimp (LC(50)-48 h: pH-AMD=5.8) and a pH- dependent decrease in locomotory activity with the lowest-observed-response-times (LORTs) within 5 h of exposure. Shrimp were more sensitive to acid mine drainage than fish (LC(50)-48 h: pH-AMD=4.9). A new multimetric index combining toxicity testing and bioassessment methods is proposed.

Modeling surface water critical loads with PROFILE: possibilities and challenges

The critical load concept has become a valuable tool for policymakers in the European negotiations on emission reductions. Despite the international acceptance, ongoing validation of critical load methodology is of the utmost importance to avoid a situation where the calculation results are difficult to defend. In this paper we explore the potential of using the steady state soil chemistry model PROFILE as an alternative to the Steady State Water Chemistry (SSWC) method for calculating critical loads of acidity. The hypothesis is that the uncertainty in prediction of preindustrial leaching of base cations is reduced when soil properties instead of lake chemistry are used as input data. Paleolimnological reconstructions of preindustrial lake chemistry are used to test PROFILE. As PROFILE requires soil data that are not generally available on a catchment level, we used distributions of crucial parameters from soil survey data within the vicinity of five lakes for which paleoecological pH reconstructions were available. An important concern is the characterization of catchment hydrology. A calibration of the "effective" soil depth, needed to give PROFILE predictions that coincided with paleolimnology, suggested that approximately 0.6 m of the total soil depth was hydrologically active in supplying acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) to runoff through weathering. At present, there is insufficient evidence to either recommend or reject the PROFILE model for surface water critical loads. Before such a judgement can be made, the approach presented here has to be tested for other regions, and the definition of catchment hydrology needs to be investigated further.