Burmese pythons in Florida: A synthesis of biology, impacts, and management tools

Burmese pythons (Python molurus bivittatus) are native to southeastern Asia, however, there is an established invasive population inhabiting much of southern Florida throughout the Greater Everglades Ecosystem. Pythons have severely impacted native species and ecosystems in Florida and represent one of the most intractable invasive-species management issues across the globe. The difficulty stems from a unique combination of inaccessible habitat and the cryptic and resilient nature of pythons that thrive in the subtropical environment of southern Florida, rendering them extremely challenging to detect. Here we provide a comprehensive review and synthesis of the science relevant to managing invasive Burmese pythons. We describe existing control tools and review challenges to productive research, identifying key knowledge gaps that would improve future research and decision making for python control.

Disease-Induced Hydra Effect with Overcompensatory Recruitment

In ecological systems, the hydra effect is an increase in population size caused by an increase in mortality. This seemingly counterintuitive effect has been observed in several populations, including fish, blowflies, snails and plants, and has been modeled in both continuous and discrete time. A similar effect induced by disease has recently been observed empirically. Here we present theoretical and simulation results for an infectious disease-induced hydra effect, namely conditions under which the total population size, composed of those that are infectious as well as those that are susceptible, at an endemic equilibrium is greater than the population size at the disease-free equilibrium. (For an endemic k-cycle, this can be similarly defined using the average population.) We find this disease-induced hydra effect occurs when the intra-specific competition is strong and disease infection sufficiently inhibits the reproductive output of infected individuals. For our continuous time model, we give a necessary and sufficient condition for a disease-induced hydra effect. This condition requires overcompensatory recruitment. With a discrete time model, we show there is no disease-induced hydra effect without overcompensatory recruitment. We illustrate by simulations that a disease-induced hydra effect may occur with Ricker recruitment when the endemic system converges to either a fixed equilibrium or a 2-cycle.

Stage-specific overcompensation, the hydra effect, and the failure to eradicate an invasive predator

As biological invasions continue to increase globally, eradication programs have been undertaken at significant cost, often without consideration of relevant ecological theory. Theoretical fisheries models have shown that harvest can actually increase the equilibrium size of a population, and uncontrolled studies and anecdotal reports have documented population increases in response to invasive species removal (akin to fisheries harvest). Both findings may be driven by high levels of juvenile survival associated with low adult abundance, often referred to as overcompensation. Here we show that in a coastal marine ecosystem, an eradication program resulted in stage-specific overcompensation and a 30-fold, single-year increase in the population of an introduced predator. Data collected concurrently from four adjacent regional bays without eradication efforts showed no similar population increase, indicating a local and not a regional increase. Specifically, the eradication program had inadvertently reduced the control of recruitment by adults via cannibalism, thereby facilitating the population explosion. Mesocosm experiments confirmed that adult cannibalism of recruits was size-dependent and could control recruitment. Genomic data show substantial isolation of this population and implicate internal population dynamics for the increase, rather than recruitment from other locations. More broadly, this controlled experimental demonstration of stage-specific overcompensation in an aquatic system provides an important cautionary message for eradication efforts of species with limited connectivity and similar life histories.

Disease in Invasive Plant Populations

Non-native invasive plants can establish in natural areas, where they can be ecologically damaging and costly to manage. Like cultivated plants, invasive plants can experience a relatively disease-free period upon introduction and accumulate pathogens over time. Diseases of invasive plant populations are infrequently studied compared to diseases of agriculture, forestry, and even native plant populations. We evaluated similarities and differences in the processes that are likely to affect pathogen accumulation and disease in invasive plants compared to cultivated plants, which are the dominant focus of the field of plant pathology. Invasive plants experience more genetic, biotic, and abiotic variation across space and over time than cultivated plants, which is expected to stabilize the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of interactions with pathogens and possibly weaken the efficacy of infectious disease in their control. Although disease is expected to be context dependent, the widespread distribution of invasive plants makes them important pathogen reservoirs. Research on invasive plant diseases can both protect crops and help manage invasive plant populations.

Annual mowing has the potential to reduce the invasion of herbaceous Lupinus polyphyllus

In order to manage invasive plant species efficiently, it is necessary to have a thorough understanding of different strategies of population control, including the underlying mechanisms of action and the consequences for target populations. Here, I explored the effectiveness of biomass removal as a method of control for the invasive perennial herb Lupinus polyphyllus. More specifically, using seed material from 11 populations, I assessed among-population variation (if any) in plant compensatory growth as a response to annual biomass removal under standardised growing conditions over two consecutive years, and quantified the demographic effects of a single biomass-removal event. In all study populations, annual biomass removal reduced plant size, flowering probability, and shoot and root biomass. Biomass removal also reduced plant survival and the number of flowering shoots, but these effects were pronounced at certain time points only. A population-level demographic analysis revealed that a single biomass-removal event considerably decreased the long-term population growth rate (λ); this decline in λ was due to a reduction in plant fecundity followed by survival and growth. These findings suggest that annual mowing has the potential to curb invasions of L. polyphyllus because plants are not able to fully compensate for drastic biomass loss.

Threshold harvesting as a conservation or exploitation strategy in population management

Threshold harvesting removes the surplus of a population above a set threshold and takes no harvest below the threshold. This harvesting strategy is known to prevent overexploitation while obtaining higher yields than other harvesting strategies. However, the harvest taken can vary over time, including seasons of no harvest at all. While this is undesirable in fisheries or other exploitation activities, it can be an attractive feature of management strategies where removal interventions are costly and desirable only occasionally. In the presence of population fluctuations, the issue of variable harvests and population sizes becomes even more notorious. Here, we investigate the impact of threshold harvesting on the dynamics of both population size and harvests, especially in the presence of population cycles. We take into account semelparous and iteroparous life cycles, Allee effects, observation uncertainty, and demographic as well as environmental stochasticity, using generic mathematical models in discrete time. Our results show that threshold harvesting enhances multiple forms of population stability, namely persistence, constancy, resilience, and dynamic stability. We discuss plausible choices of threshold values, depending on whether the aim is resource exploitation, pest control, or the stabilization of fluctuations.

Finding the sweet spot: What levels of larval mortality lead to compensation or overcompensation in adult production?

Extrinsic mortality impinging on negatively density-dependent populations can result in no change in the number of survivors (compensation) or an increase (overcompensation) by releasing the population from density-dependent effects on survivorship. The relationship between the level of extrinsic mortality (i.e., percentage of mortality) and the level and likelihood of overcompensation is theoretically important, but rarely investigated. We tested the hypothesis that overcompensation occurs below a threshold value of extrinsic mortality that is related to density-dependent mortality rate, and that additive extrinsic mortality occurs above this threshold. This hypothesis predicts that survivorship vs. extrinsic mortality will: 1) be best described by a two-segmented model with a threshold; 2) have a slope >0 below the threshold; and 3) have a slope=-1 above the threshold. We also tested whether mortality imposed by real predators and random harvest have equivalent effects on adult production, and whether magnitude of overcompensation is related to species sensitivity to density-dependence. These hypotheses were tested in the container mosquitoes Aedes aegypti, A. albopictus, A. triseriatus, and Culex pipiens (Diptera: Culicidae). Cohorts of 150 larvae were exposed to random harvest of 0-70% two days after hatch or to predation by 1-3 Mesocyclops longisetus (Crustacea: Copepoda). Overcompensation occurred in A. aegypti in a pattern consistent with predictions. Aedes triseriatus showed strong overcompensation but no evidence of a threshold, whereas A. albopictus and C. pipiens had survival consistent with compensatory mortality but no evidence of a threshold. Compared to random harvest, mortality from predation yielded greater adult production in A. aegypti and A. albopictus, lesser adult production in C. pipiens, and no difference in adult production in A. triseriatus. Our results are largely consistent with our hypothesis about overcompensation, with the caveat that thresholds for additive mortality appear to occur at very high levels of extrinsic mortality. Magnitudes of overcompensation for the three Aedes were inversely related to survival in the 0% mortality treatment, consistent with our hypothesis that overcompensation is related to sensitivity to density-dependence. A broad range of extrinsic mortality levels can yield overcompensation, which may have practical implications for attempts to control pest populations.

Distance-dependent seedling mortality and long-term spacing dynamics in a neotropical forest community

Negative distance dependence (NDisD), or reduced recruitment near adult conspecifics, is thought to explain the astounding diversity of tropical forests. While many studies show greater mortality at near vs. far distances from adults, these studies do not seek to track changes in the peak seedling curve over time, thus limiting our ability to link NDisD to coexistence. Using census data collected over 12 years from central Panama in conjunction with spatial mark-connection functions, we show evidence for NDisD for many species, and find that the peak seedling curve shifts away from conspecific adults over time. We find wide variation in the strength of NDisD, which was correlated with seed size and canopy position, but other life-history traits showed no relationship with variation in NDisD mortality. Our results document shifts in peak seedling densities over time, thus providing evidence for the hypothesized spacing mechanism necessary for diversity maintenance in tropical forests.

Native insect herbivory overwhelms context dependence to limit complex invasion dynamics of exotic weeds

Understanding the role of consumers in density-dependent plant population dynamics is a long-standing goal in ecology. However, the generality of herbivory effects across heterogeneous landscapes is poorly understood due to the pervasive influence of context-dependence. We tested effects of native insect herbivory on the population dynamics of an exotic thistle, Cirsium vulgare, in a field experiment replicated across eight sites in eastern Nebraska. Using hierarchical Bayesian analysis and density-dependent population models, we found potential for explosive low-density population growth (λ > 5) and complex density fluctuations under herbivore exclusion. However, herbivore access drove population decline (λ < 1), suppressing complex fluctuations. While plant-herbivore interaction outcomes are famously context-dependent, we demonstrated that herbivores suppress potentially invasive populations throughout our study region, and this qualitative outcome is insensitive to environmental context. Our novel use of Bayesian demographic modelling shows that native insect herbivores consistently prevent hard-to-predict fluctuations of weeds in environments otherwise susceptible to invasion.

Evolutionary dynamics of mixed-ploidy populations in an annual herb: dispersal, local persistence and recurrent origins of polyploids

Background and Aims

Despite the recent wealth of studies targeted at contact zones of cytotypes in various species, some aspects of polyploid evolution are still poorly understood. This is especially the case for the frequency and success rate of spontaneous neopolyploidization or the temporal dynamics of ploidy coexistence, requiring massive ploidy screening and repeated observations, respectively. To fill this gap, an extensive study of spatio-temporal patterns of ploidy coexistence was initiated in the widespread annual weed Tripleurospermum inodorum (Asteraceae).

Methods

DNA flow cytometry along with confirmatory chromosome counts was employed to assess ploidy levels of 11 018 adult individuals and 1263 ex situ germinated seedlings from 1209 Central European populations. The ploidy screening was conducted across three spatial scales and supplemented with observations of temporal development of 37 mixed-ploidy populations.

Key Results

The contact zone between the diploid and tetraploid cytotypes has a diffuse, mosaic-like structure enabling common cytotype coexistence from the within-population to the landscape level. A marked difference in monoploid genome size between the two cytotypes enabled the easy distinction of neotetraploid mutants from long-established tetraploids. Neotetraploids were extremely rare (0·03 %) and occurred solitarily. Altogether five ploidy levels (2 x -6 x ) and several aneuploids were discovered; the diversity in nuclear DNA content was highest in early ontogenetic stages (seedlings) and among individuals from mixed-ploidy populations. In spite of profound temporal oscillations in cytotype frequencies in mixed-ploidy populations, both diploids and tetraploids usually persisted up to the last census.

Conclusions

Diploids and tetraploids commonly coexist at all spatial scales and exhibit considerable temporal stability in local ploidy mixtures. Mixed-ploidy populations containing fertile triploid hybrids probaby act as effective generators of cytogenetic novelty and may facilitate inter-ploidy gene flow. Neopolyploid mutants were incapable of local establishment.

Local environment and density-dependent feedbacks determine population growth in a forest herb

Linking spatial variation in environmental factors to variation in demographic rates is essential for a mechanistic understanding of the dynamics of populations. However, we still know relatively little about such links, partly because feedbacks via intraspecific density make them difficult to observe in natural populations. We conducted a detailed field study and investigated simultaneous effects of environmental factors and the intraspecific density of individuals on the demography of the herb Lathyrus vernus. In regression models of vital rates we identified effects associated with spring shade on survival and growth, while density was negatively correlated with these vital rates. Density was also negatively correlated with average individual size in the study plots, which is consistent with self-thinning. In addition, average plant sizes were larger than predicted by density in plots that were less shaded by the tree canopy, indicating an environmentally determined carrying capacity. A size-structured integral projection model based on the vital rate regressions revealed that the identified effects of shade and density were strong enough to produce differences in stable population sizes similar to those observed in the field. The results illustrate how the local environment can determine dynamics of populations and that intraspecific density may have to be more carefully considered in studies of plant demography and population viability analyses of threatened species. We conclude that demographic approaches incorporating information about both density and key environmental factors are powerful tools for understanding the processes that interact to determine population dynamics and abundances.

A model of the relationship between weedy rice seed-bank dynamics and rice-crop infestation and damage in Jiangsu Province, China

BACKGROUND

A heavy infestation of weedy rice leading to no harvested rice has never been predicted in China due to a lack of knowledge about the weedy rice seed bank. We studied the seed-bank dynamics of weedy rice for three consecutive years and analyzed the relationship between seed-bank density and population density in order to predict future weedy rice infestations of direct-seeded rice at six sites along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province, China.

RESULTS

The seed-bank density of weedy rice in all six sites displayed an increasing trend with seasonal fluctuations. Weedy rice seeds found in the 0-10 cm soil layer contributed most to seedling emergence. An exponential curve expressed the relationship between cultivated rice yield loss and adult weedy rice density. Based on data collected during the weedy rice life-cycle, a semi-empirical mathematic model was developed that fits well with the experimental data in a way that could be used to predict seed-bank dynamics.

CONCLUSIONS

By integrating the semi-empirical model and the exponential curve, weedy rice infestation levels and crop losses can be predicted based on the seed-bank dynamics so that a practical control can be adopted before rice planting.

A seasonal, density-dependent model for the management of an invasive weed

The population effects of harvest depend on complex interactions between density dependence, seasonality, stage structure, and management timing. Here we present a periodic nonlinear matrix population model that incorporates seasonal density dependence with stage-selective and seasonally selective harvest. To this model, we apply newly developed perturbation analyses to determine how population densities respond to changes in harvest and demographic parameters. We use the model to examine the effects of popular control strategies and demographic perturbations on the invasive weed garlic mustard (Alliaria petiolata). We find that seasonality is a major factor in harvest outcomes, because population dynamics may depend significantly on both the season of management and the season of observation. Strategies that reduce densities in one season can drive increases in another, with strategies giving positive sensitivities of density in the target seasons leading to compensatory effects that invasive species managers should avoid. Conversely, demographic parameters to which density is very elastic (e.g., seeding survival, second-year rosette spring survival, and the flowering to fruiting adult transition for maximum summer densities) may indicate promising management targets.

Modelling the dynamics of feral alfalfa populations and its management implications

Background

Feral populations of cultivated crops can pose challenges to novel trait confinement within agricultural landscapes. Simulation models can be helpful in investigating the underlying dynamics of feral populations and determining suitable management options.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We developed a stage-structured matrix population model for roadside feral alfalfa populations occurring in southern Manitoba, Canada. The model accounted for the existence of density-dependence and recruitment subsidy in feral populations. We used the model to investigate the long-term dynamics of feral alfalfa populations, and to evaluate the effectiveness of simulated management strategies such as herbicide application and mowing in controlling feral alfalfa. Results suggest that alfalfa populations occurring in roadside habitats can be persistent and less likely to go extinct under current roadverge management scenarios. Management attempts focused on controlling adult plants alone can be counterproductive due to the presence of density-dependent effects. Targeted herbicide application, which can achieve complete control of seedlings, rosettes and established plants, will be an effective strategy, but the seedbank population may contribute to new recruits. In regions where roadside mowing is regularly practiced, devising a timely mowing strategy (early- to mid-August for southern Manitoba), one that can totally prevent seed production, will be a feasible option for managing feral alfalfa populations.

Conclusions/Significance

Feral alfalfa populations can be persistent in roadside habitats. Timely mowing or regular targeted herbicide application will be effective in managing feral alfalfa populations and limit feral-population-mediated gene flow in alfalfa. However, in the context of novel trait confinement, the extent to which feral alfalfa populations need to be managed will be dictated by the tolerance levels established by specific production systems for specific traits. The modelling framework outlined in this paper could be applied to other perennial herbaceous plants with similar life-history characteristics.

The control of an invasive bivalve, Corbicula fluminea, using gas impermeable benthic barriers in a large natural lake

Anoxia can restrict species establishment in aquatic systems and the artificial promotion of these conditions can provide an effective control strategy for invasive molluscs. Low abundances (2-20 m(-2)) of the nonnative bivalve, Asian clam (Corbicula fluminea), were first recorded in Lake Tahoe, CA-NV in 2002 and by 2010 nuisance-level population densities (>10,000 m(-2)) were observed. A non-chemical control method using gas impermeable benthic barriers to reduce dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations available to C. fluminea was tested in this ultra-oligotrophic natural lake. In 2009, the impact of ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) sheets (9 m(2), n = 6) on C. fluminea beds was tested on 1-7 day intervals over a 56 day period (August-September). At an average water temperature of 18 °C, DO concentrations under these small barriers were reduced to zero after 72 h resulting in 100 % C. fluminea mortality after 28 days. In 2010, a large EPDM barrier (1,950 m(2)) was applied to C. fluminea populations for 120 days (July-November). C. fluminea abundances were reduced over 98 % after barrier removal, and remained significantly reduced (>90 %) 1 year later. Non-target benthic macroinvertebrate abundances were also reduced, with variable taxon-specific recolonization rates. High C. fluminea abundance under anoxic conditions increased the release of ammonium and soluble reactive phosphorus from the sediment substrate; but levels of unionized ammonia were low at 0.004-0.005 mg L(-1). Prolonged exposure to anoxia using benthic barriers can provide an effective short term control strategy for C. fluminea.

Thinking inside the box: community-level consequences of stage-structured populations

Ecologists have historically represented consumer-resource interactions with boxes and arrows. A key assumption of this conceptualization is that all individuals inside a box are functionally equivalent. Demographic stage structure, however, is a widespread source of heterogeneity inside the boxes. Synthesizing recent studies, we show that stage structure can modify the dynamics of consumer-resource communities owing to stage-related shifts in the nature and strength of interactions that occur within and between populations. As a consequence, stage structure can stabilize consumer-resource dynamics, create possibilities for alternative community states, modify conditions for coexistence of competitors, and alter the strength and direction of trophic cascades. Consideration of stage structure can thus lead to outcomes that are not expected based on unstructured approaches.

Testing the Janzen-Connell mechanism: pathogens cause overcompensating density dependence in a tropical tree

The Janzen-Connell hypothesis is a leading explanation for plant-species diversity in tropical forests. It suggests that specialized natural enemies decrease offspring survival at high densities beneath parents, giving locally rarer species an advantage. This mechanism, in its original form, assumes that density dependence is overcompensating: mortality must be disproportionately high at the highest densities, with few offspring recruiting below their parents. We tested this assumption using parallel shadehouse and field density-series experiments on seedlings of a tropical tree, Pleradenophora longicuspis. We found strong, overcompensating mortality driven by fungal pathogens, causing 90% (shadehouse) or 100% (field) mortality within 4 weeks of germination, and generating a negative relationship between initial and final seedling densities. Fungicide treatment led to much lower, density-independent, mortality. Overcompensating mortality was extremely rapid, and could be missed without detailed monitoring. Such dynamics may prevent dead trees from being replaced by conspecifics, promoting coexistence as envisioned by the Janzen-Connell hypothesis.

When can efforts to control nuisance and invasive species backfire?

Population control through harvest has the potential to reduce the abundance of nuisance and invasive species. However, demographic structure and density-dependent processes can confound removal efforts and lead to undesirable consequences, such as overcompensation (an increase in abundance in response to harvest) and instability (population cycling or chaos). Recent empirical studies have demonstrated the potential for increased mortality (such as that caused by harvest) to lead to overcompensation and instability in plant, insect, and fish populations. We developed a general population model with juvenile and adult stages to help determine the conditions under which control harvest efforts can produce unintended outcomes. Analytical and simulation analyses of the model demonstrated that the potential for overcompensation as a result of harvest was significant for species with high fecundity, even when annual stage-specific survivorship values were fairly low. Population instability as a result of harvest occurred less frequently and was only possible with harvest strategies that targeted adults when both fecundity and adult survivorship were high. We considered these results in conjunction with current literature on nuisance and invasive species to propose general guidelines for assessing the risks associated with control harvest based on life history characteristics of target populations. Our results suggest that species with high per capita fecundity (over discrete breeding periods), short juvenile stages, and fairly constant survivorship rates are most likely to respond undesirably to harvest. It is difficult to determine the extent to which overcompensation and instability could occur during real-world removal efforts, and more empirical removal studies should be undertaken to evaluate population-level responses to control harvests. Nevertheless, our results identify key issues that have been seldom acknowledged and are potentially generic across taxa.

Complex population dynamics and control of the invasive biennial Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard)

Controlling species invasions is a leading problem for applied ecology. While controlling populations expanding linearly or exponentially is straightforward, intervention in systems with complex dynamics can have complicated, and sometimes counterintuitive, consequences. Most invasive plant populations are stage-structured and density-dependent--a recipe for complex dynamics--and yet few population models have been created to explore the effects of control efforts on such species. We examined the demography of the invasive biennial plant Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard) on the front of its spread into a natural area and found evidence of strong density dependence in vital rates of first-year rosette and second-year adult stage classes. We parameterized a density-dependent, stage-structured projection model using field-collected data. This model produces two-point cycles with alternating years in which adults vs. rosettes are more prevalent. Such population dynamics match observations in natural populations, suggesting that these complicated population dynamics may result from deterministic rules. We used this model to evaluate simulated management strategies, including herbicide treatment of rosettes and clipping or pulling of adult plants. Management of A. petiolata by inducing mortality of either rosettes or adults will not be effective at reducing population density unless the induced mortality is very high (>95% for rosettes and >85% for adults) and repeated every year. Indeed, induced mortality of rosettes can be counterproductive, causing increases in the stationary distribution of A. petiolata density. This species is typical of many invasive plants (stage-structured, short-lived, high fertility) and exhibits common forms of density dependence. Thus, the management implications of our study should apply broadly to other species with similar life histories. We suggest that management should focus on managing adults rather than rosettes, and on creating efficient control in targeted areas of the population, rather than spreading less efficient efforts widely.

Managing the impact of invasive species: the value of knowing the density-impact curve

Economic impacts of invasive species worldwide are substantial. Management strategies have been incorporated in population models to assess the effectiveness of management for reducing density, with the implicit assumption that economic impact of the invasive species will also decline. The optimal management effort, however, is that which minimizes the sum of both the management and impact costs. The relationship between population density and economic impact (what we call the "density-impact curve") is rarely examined in a management context and could take several nonlinear forms. Here we determine the effects of population dynamics and density-impact curves of different shapes on optimal management effort and discover cases where management is either highly effective or a waste of resources. When an inaccurate density-impact curve is used, the increase in total costs due to over- or underinvestment in management can be large. We calculate the increase in total costs incurred if the density-impact curve is incorrect and find that the greater the maximum impact caused by an invasive species, the more important it is not only to reduce its density, but also to know the shape of the density-impact relationship accurately. Lack of information regarding the relationship between density and economic impact causes the most acute problems for invaders that cause high impact at low density, where management typically will be too little, too late. For species that are only problematic at high density, ignorance of the density-impact curve can lead to overinvestment in management with little reduction in impact.

When density dependence is not instantaneous: theoretical developments and management implications

Most organisms live in changing environments or do not use the same resources at different stages of their lives or in different seasons. As a result, density dependence will affect populations differently at different times. Such sequential density dependence generates markedly different population responses compared to the unrealistic assumption that all events occur simultaneously. Various field studies have also shown that the conditions that individuals experience during one period can influence success and per capita vital rates during the following period. These carry-over effects further complicate any general principles and increase the diversity of possible population dynamics. In this review, we describe how studies of sequential density dependence have diverged in directions that are both taxon-specific and have non-overlapping terminology, despite very similar underlying problems. By exploring and highlighting these similarities, we aim to improve communication between fields, clarify common misunderstandings, and provide a framework for improving conservation and management practices, including sustainable harvesting theory.

Demographic models inform selection of biocontrol agents for garlic mustard (Alliaria petiolata)

Nonindigenous invasive plants pose a major threat to natural communities worldwide. Biological control of weeds via selected introduction of their natural enemies can affect control over large spatial areas but also risk nontarget effects. To maximize effectiveness while minimizing risk, weed biocontrol programs should introduce the minimum number of host-specific natural enemies necessary to control an invasive nonindigenous plant. We used elasticity analysis of a matrix model to help inform biocontrol agent selection for garlic mustard (Alliaria petiolata (M. Bieb.) Cavara and Grande). The Eurasian biennial A. petiolata is considered one of the most problematic invaders of temperate forests in North America. Four weevil species in the genus Ceutorhynchus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) are currently considered potential biocontrol agents. These species attack rosettes (C. scrobicollis), stems (C. roberti, C. alliariae), and seeds (C. constrictus) of A. petiolata. Elasticity analyses using A. petiolata demographic parameters from North America indicated that changes in the rosette-to-flowering-plant transition and changes in fecundity consistently had the greatest impact on population growth rate. These results suggest that attack by the rosette-feeder C. scrobicollis, which reduces overwintering survival, and seed or stem feeders that reduce seed output should be particularly effective. Model outcomes differed greatly as A. petiolata demographic parameters were varied within ranges observed in North America, indicating that successful control of A. petiolata populations may occur under some, but not all, conditions. Using these a priori analyses we predict: (1) rosette mortality and reduction of seed output will be the most important factors determining A. petiolata demography; (2) the root-crown feeder C. scrobicollis will have the most significant impact on A. petiolata demography; (3) releases of single control agents are unlikely to control A. petiolata across its full range of demographic variability; (4) combinations of agents that simultaneously reduce rosette survival and seed production will be required to suppress the most vigorous A. petiolata populations. These predictions can be tested using established long-term monitoring sites coupled with a designed release program. If demographic models can successfully predict biocontrol agent impact on invasive plant populations, a continued dialogue and collaboration between empirical and theoretical approaches may be the key to the development of successful biocontrol tactics for plant invaders in the future.