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Risk Factors Are Not Very Risky Once a Normal Embryonic Heart Rate is Seen in Early Pregnancy. JOURNAL OF ULTRASOUND IN MEDICINE : OFFICIAL JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF ULTRASOUND IN MEDICINE 2024. [PMID: 38760971 DOI: 10.1002/jum.16485] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/27/2024] [Revised: 04/23/2024] [Accepted: 05/06/2024] [Indexed: 05/20/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To assess first-trimester prognosis when an early pregnancy sonogram demonstrates a normal embryonic heart rate and to determine how a number of risk factors affect prognosis. METHODS Our study population consisted of 6597 first-trimester scans with gestational age (GA) ≤ 7.0 weeks (all with crown-rump length [CRL] <10 mm), normal embryonic heart, and known first-trimester outcome. We recorded GA; CRL; heart rate; first-trimester outcome; maternal age; presence, absence, and size of subchorionic hematoma; presence or absence of vaginal bleeding; and presence, absence, and size of uterine fibroids. We assessed first-trimester outcome in the study population and subsets based on the above data. RESULTS First-trimester outcome was successful in 6030 of the 6597 cases (91.4%). The prognosis was somewhat worse with each of the following risk factors: maternal age ≥35 years, large subchorionic hematoma, and large or multiple uterine fibroids (P < .02, chi-squared or Cochran's test for trend, for all of these items). The rate of successful outcome was in the range of 83-88% with each of these risk factors and 93.8% in the absence of any of these factors. CONCLUSIONS The presence of a normal embryonic heart rate on an early first-trimester sonogram is a reassuring finding, indicating a likelihood of good first-trimester outcome of at least 83% even in the presence of risk factors, and of over 90% in the absence of such factors.
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Using simple clinical and ultrasound variables to develop a model to predict first trimester pregnancy viability. Eur J Obstet Gynecol Reprod Biol 2024; 292:187-193. [PMID: 38039901 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejogrb.2023.11.030] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2023] [Revised: 11/16/2023] [Accepted: 11/21/2023] [Indexed: 12/03/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Early prediction of pregnancies destined to miscarry will allow couples to prepare for this common but often unexpected eventuality, and clinicians to allocate finite resources. We aimed to develop a prediction model combining clinical, demographic, and sonographic data as a clinical tool to aid counselling about first trimester pregnancy outcome. MATERIAL AND METHODS This is a prospective, observational cohort study conducted at Queen Charlotte's and Chelsea Hospital, UK from March 2014 to May 2019. Women with confirmed intrauterine pregnancies between 5 weeks and their dating scan (11-14 weeks) were recruited. Participants attended serial ultrasound scans in the first trimester and at each visit recorded symptoms of vaginal bleeding, pelvic pain, nausea and vomiting using validated scoring tools. Pregnancies were followed up until the dating scan (11-14 weeks). Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to predict first trimester viability. A model was developed with multivariable logistic regression, variables limited by feature selection, and bootstrapping with multiple imputation was used for internal validation. RESULTS 1403 women were recruited and after exclusions, data were available for 1105. 160 women (14.5 %) experienced first trimester miscarriage and 945 women (85.5 %) had viable pregnancies at 11-14 weeks' gestation. The average gestational age at the initial visit (calculated from the menstrual dates) was 7 + 1 weeks (+/-12.2 days). A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to predict first trimester viability and included the variables: mean gestational sac diameter, presence of fetal heart pulsations, difference in gestational age from last menstrual period and from mean sac diameter on ultrasonography, current folic acid usage and maternal age. The model demonstrated good performance (optimism-corrected area under curve (AUC) 0.84, 95 % CI 0.81-0.87; optimism-corrected calibration slope 0.969). CONCLUSION We have developed and internally validated a model to predict first trimester viability with good accuracy prior to the 11-14 week dating scan, which now needs to be externally validated prior to clinical use.
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Predicting first-trimester outcome of embryos with cardiac activity in women with recurrent spontaneous abortion. J Int Med Res 2021; 48:300060520911829. [PMID: 32527173 PMCID: PMC7294372 DOI: 10.1177/0300060520911829] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective This study was performed to evaluate the capability of routine clinical indicators to predict the early outcome of embryos with cardiac activity in women with recurrent spontaneous abortion (RSA). Methods A retrospective cohort study of pregnant women with a history of RSA in a Chinese tertiary hospital was performed using unadjusted and multivariable logistic regression. Results Of 789 pregnant women with RSA, 625 (79.21%) had ongoing pregnancy, whereas 164 (20.79%) developed abortion before 20 full weeks of gestational age even after embryonic heart motion was detected. The final model had an area under the curve of 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.78–0.84) with a sensitivity of 74.39%, a specificity of 76.00%, and a false-positive rate of 52.32% at a fixed detection rate of 90%. Conclusions The combination of multiple routine clinical indicators was valuable in predicting the early outcome of embryos with cardiac activity in viable pregnancies with RSA. However, this model might result in a high false-positive rate with a fixed detection rate of 90%; other markers must be investigated to identify first-trimester RSA once positive embryonic heart motion is established.
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Efficacy and safety of traditional Chinese herbal medicine in the treatment of threatened abortion: A protocol for systematic review and meta-analysis. Medicine (Baltimore) 2021; 100:e23288. [PMID: 33592821 PMCID: PMC7870177 DOI: 10.1097/md.0000000000023288] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/20/2020] [Accepted: 10/22/2020] [Indexed: 01/05/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Threatened abortion (TA) is the commonest complication that occurs in early pregnancy, especially in 8-12 gestational weeks when the secretion of estrogen and progesterone shifts from corpus luteum to placental. Conventional therapies are little evidence of their value. In China, traditional Chinese herbal medicine has been widely used for the treatment of TA for a long time. The lack of strong scientific evidences make this a priority area for research. We aim to evaluate the efficacy and safety of traditional Chinese herbal medicine in the treatment of TA, provide medical staffs with more useful information, and provide patients with better advises. METHODS We will search 8 databases and additional sources, including the Web of Science, PubMed, Cochrane Library, Embase, CBM, Wanfang, VIP, CNKI, and WHO ICTRP, ChiCTR, Clinical Trials, Grey Literature Database, for potentially eligible studies. Literature search, screening and retrieval are performed independently by two researchers. In the event of a dispute, a third party will be consulted to support the judgment. We will use RevmanV.5.3 to perform a fixed-effect meta-analysis for clinical homogeneity study data, and the level of evidence will be assessed using the GRADE method. RESULTS This systematic review and meta-analysis will put a high-quality synthesis of the efficacy and safety of traditional Chinese herbal medicine in the treatment of TA. CONCLUSION The conclusion of this systematic review will provide evidence to assess traditional Chinese herbal medicine therapy whether is an efficacy and safe intervention to treat TA. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION Since this article does not contain patient personal information, ethical approval is not required. The contract is distributed by a peer-reviewed journal or conference report. REGISTRATION NUMBER 10.17605/OSF.IO/DG3T8.
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The impact of first-trimester intrauterine hematoma on adverse perinatal outcomes. Ultrasonography 2018; 37:330-336. [PMID: 29807403 PMCID: PMC6177692 DOI: 10.14366/usg.18006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/20/2018] [Accepted: 03/17/2018] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Purpose The aim of this study was to evaluate whether the presence of an intrauterine hematoma (IUH) on an early pregnancy ultrasound scan showing a live fetus was related to adverse perinatal outcomes. Methods We performed a retrospective cohort study to evaluate pregnant women who underwent an ultrasound examination in early pregnancy, between 6 weeks 0 days and 10 weeks 6 days. We compared the perinatal outcomes between women with and without firsttrimester IUH using the Mann-Whitney and Fisher exact tests. Furthermore, we performed a stepwise regression analysis to identify possible predictors of miscarriage among maternal characteristics, ultrasound parameters, and IUH. Results During the study period, data from 783 pregnancies were included, and the incidence of IUH was 4.5% (35 of 783). We observed a higher proportion of miscarriage following the scan (28.6% vs. 10%, P=0.003) and a larger yolk sac diameter during the scan (4.8 mm vs. 3.8 mm, P<0.001) in the pregnant women with first-trimester IUH. There was no significant difference regard the prevalence of low birth weight (LBW; P=0.091), very LBW (P=0.370), or extremely LBW (P=0.600) between cases with IUH and without IUH, the cesarean section rate (68% vs. 81%, P=0.130), preterm delivery (16% vs. 16%, P>0.999), or the incidence of first-trimester vaginal bleeding (31% vs. 20%, P=0.130). Moreover, heart rate (HR) was the only variable that predicted miscarriage with statistical significance (P=0.017). Conclusion Women with first-trimester IUH had a higher risk of miscarriage after the ultrasound scan. HR was the only variable that predicted miscarriage with statistical significance.
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Adverse perinatal outcomes associated with crown-rump length discrepancy in in vitro fertilization pregnancies. Fertil Steril 2018; 109:123-129. [DOI: 10.1016/j.fertnstert.2017.09.026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2017] [Revised: 09/22/2017] [Accepted: 09/22/2017] [Indexed: 11/15/2022]
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Prediction of miscarriage in women with viable intrauterine pregnancy—A systematic review and diagnostic accuracy meta-analysis. Eur J Obstet Gynecol Reprod Biol 2018; 220:122-131. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ejogrb.2017.10.024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/28/2017] [Revised: 10/23/2017] [Accepted: 10/29/2017] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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Serum concentrations of Ang-2 and Flt-1 may be predictive of pregnancy outcome in women with pregnancies of uncertain viability: a phase I exploratory prognostic factor study. J OBSTET GYNAECOL 2017; 38:321-326. [DOI: 10.1080/01443615.2017.1353596] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
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Abstract
Pregnancy failure is defined as a lack of sonographic evidence of current or expected viability. Technologic advances in ultrasound imaging continue to redefine diagnostic criteria of pregnancy failure or success. When evaluating a pregnancy, the first step is an assessment of maternal risk factors for failure. Imaging clues such as an empty gestational sac measuring ≥25 mm or an embryo ≥7 mm without cardiac activity are reliable signs of pregnancy failure, whereas embryonic growth <1 mm/d is not. Combinations of sonographic findings can be used for a more accurate prediction of pregnancy success or failure.
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Outcomes of threatened abortions after anticoagulation treatment to prevent recurrent pregnancy loss. Reprod Biomed Online 2017; 35:461-467. [PMID: 28756129 DOI: 10.1016/j.rbmo.2017.06.018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/03/2017] [Revised: 06/21/2017] [Accepted: 06/21/2017] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
Abstract
We aimed to determine the outcome of threatened abortion in women treated with low-molecular weight heparin (LMWH) for recurrent pregnancy loss (RPL). Data of women with RPL who experienced threatened abortion while taking LMWH between 2007 and 2016 were retrospectively reviewed. All patients received the LMWH, enoxaparin (40 mg). Thrombophilia was present in 38 (33.3%) women, including 11 (9.6%) with antiphospholipid syndrome (APLS). The overall live birth rate was 58.8% (67/114). Live birth rates were 87.2% (41/47 patients) and 38.8% (26/67 patients) among those who discontinued versus those who continued LMWH treatment, respectively (P < 0.0001). Among APLS patients, live births resulted in eight of the nine women who continued LMWH. In multivariate analysis, discontinuation of LMWH was the only significant predictor of live birth outcome (P < 0.0001). Thrombophilia, presence of subchorionic haematoma, and severity of bleeding were not found to be associated with live birth outcomes. For women with threatened abortions, continuation of LMWH indicated to prevent RPL was negatively associated with live birth rates. Therefore, we support its discontinuation in this setting. Among women with APLS, LMWH continuation resulted in a relatively high live birth rate; we advocate against its withdrawal in this subset of patients.
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Prediction of fetal loss by first-trimester crown–rump length in IVF pregnancies. Arch Gynecol Obstet 2017; 295:771-775. [DOI: 10.1007/s00404-016-4266-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2016] [Accepted: 12/08/2016] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
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Ultrasound Evaluation of First Trimester Complications of Pregnancy. JOURNAL OF OBSTETRICS AND GYNAECOLOGY CANADA 2016; 38:982-988. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jogc.2016.06.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
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Archivée: Évaluation échographique des complications au premier trimestre de grossesse. JOURNAL OF OBSTETRICS AND GYNAECOLOGY CANADA 2016; 38:989-996. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jogc.2016.06.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
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Intertwin crown-rump length discordance in the prediction of fetal anomalies, fetal loss and adverse perinatal outcome. J Matern Fetal Neonatal Med 2015; 29:2883-8. [PMID: 26466907 DOI: 10.3109/14767058.2015.1107901] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To assess the risks of fetal anomalies, fetal loss and adverse perinatal outcome in a cohort of first-trimester intertwin crown-rump length (CRL) discordant twins, stratified by chorionicity and the degree of CRL discordance. METHOD Four-hundred-and-seventy-one twin pregnancies were scanned during an 8-year period at 11-14 weeks, and those with an intertwin CRL discordance ≥10% were compared with concordant twins. Outcomes were also compared between monochorionic and dichorionic twins and between moderate (10-16%) and severe (>16%) discordance. RESULTS Four-hundred-and-five twin pregnancies, 65 discordant and 340 concordant, were follow-up. Discordant twin pregnancies were at significant higher risk of chromosomal (OR = 11.42; 95% CI: 2.78-46.94) and structural anomalies (OR = 5.91; 95% CI: 2.25-15.54), spontaneous fetal loss (OR = 4.23; 95% CI: 1.79-10.01), birthweight discordance (OR = 2.8; 95% CI: 1.48-5.65) and small-for-gestational age (OR = 3.48; 95% CI: 1.78-6.79). Similar differences (except for birthweight discordance) were observed among dichorionic twins. Among monochorionic, increased frequencies were only seen for structural anomalies, birthweight discordance and small newborns. Severe CRL discordance presented with higher rates of structural anomalies, stillbirth, birthweight discordance and small newborns. CONCLUSION Intertwin CRL discordance (≥10%) results in an increased risk of fetal anomalies and growth restriction that increases in severe CRL discordance (≥16%).
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Evaluation of waiting times and sonographic findings in patients with first trimester vaginal bleeding at the university hospital of the west indies. Can emergency department ultrasound make a difference? W INDIAN MED J 2014; 63:247-51. [PMID: 25314282 DOI: 10.7727/wimj.2013.230] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/14/2013] [Accepted: 11/26/2013] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Pregnant female patients with vaginal bleeding in the first trimester are seen commonly in the Emergency Department (ED) at the University Hospital of the West Indies (UHWI), Kingston, Jamaica. The protocol for the management of these patients requires that they have a sonographic evaluation performed for the purpose of localizing the pregnancy where possible, to assist with determining the risk for an ectopic pregnancy. The ultrasound examinations are performed in the radiology department. OBJECTIVE This retrospective study was conducted to evaluate how long patients wait for a pelvic ultrasound. We also sought to establish how many patients had ultrasound findings that would have allowed safe discharge home. METHODS The records of 150 patients seen in the six-month period from January 1 to July 30, 2008 were examined. Data were extracted pertaining to age, time to see an emergency room doctor, time taken for ultrasound examination to be obtained from the radiology department and the ultrasound findings. RESULT Fifty-four per cent presented to the Emergency Department with a complaint of vaginal bleeding and abdominal pain, 29% with bleeding only, 16% with abdominal pain only and one with syncope. One hundred and sixteen of the patients enrolled had an ultrasound performed at UHWI. The average waiting time for an ultrasound was 3.8 ± 2.5 hours. The majority (66/116) of the patients had an intrauterine pregnancy (IUP) demonstrated on ultrasound. Twenty-nine had no IUP, free fluid or adnexal mass. These 95 patients would likely have been discharged home. Ten patients had an adnexal mass with or without free fluid, and ten had free fluid only on ultrasound. One patient was found to have a definite ectopic pregnancy. These 21 patients would have been referred for evaluation by the obstetrician on call for further management. CONCLUSION The majority of patients had sonographic findings that would have allowed safe and timely discharge from the Emergency Department had ultrasound been available at the point of care.
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Clinical significance of first-trimester intrauterine haematomas detected in pregnancies achieved by IVF-embryo transfer. Reprod Biomed Online 2014; 29:445-51. [DOI: 10.1016/j.rbmo.2014.06.015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2014] [Revised: 06/20/2014] [Accepted: 06/23/2014] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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Estimation of gestational age in early pregnancy from crown-rump length when gestational age range is truncated: the case study of the INTERGROWTH-21st Project. BMC Med Res Methodol 2013; 13:151. [PMID: 24314232 PMCID: PMC4029763 DOI: 10.1186/1471-2288-13-151] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/02/2013] [Accepted: 11/28/2013] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Fetal ultrasound scanning is considered vital for routine antenatal care with first trimester scans recommended for accurate estimation of gestational age (GA). A reliable estimate of gestational age is key information underpinning clinical care and allows estimation of expected date of delivery. Fetal crown-rump length (CRL) is recommended over last menstrual period for estimating GA when measured in early pregnancy i.e. 9+0-13+6 weeks. METHODS The INTERGROWTH-21st Project is the largest prospective study to collect data on CRL in geographically diverse populations and with a high level of quality control measures in place. We aim to develop a new gestational age estimation equation based on the crown-rump length (CRL) from women recruited between 9+0-13+6 weeks. The main statistical challenge is modelling data when the outcome variable (GA) is truncated at both ends, i.e. at 9 and 14 weeks.We explored three alternative statistical approaches to overcome the truncation of GA. To evaluate these strategies we generated a data set with no truncation of GA that was similar to the INTERGROWTH-21st Project CRL data, which we used to explore the performance of different methods of analysis of these data when we imposed truncation at 9 and 14 weeks of gestation. These 3 methods were first tested in a simulation based study using a previously published dating equation by Verburg et al. and evaluated how well each of them performed in relation to the model from which the data were generated. After evaluating the 3 approaches using simulated data based on the Verburg equations, the best approach will be applied to the INTERGROWTH-21st Project data to estimate GA from CRL. RESULTS Results of these rather "ad hoc" statistical methods correspond very closely to the "real data" for Verburg, a data set that is similar to the INTERGROWTH-21st project CRL data set. CONCLUSIONS We are confident that we can use these approaches to get reliable estimates based on INTERGROWTH-21st Project CRL data. These approaches may be a solution to other truncation problems involving similar data though their application to other settings would need to be evaluated.
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Embryonic growth discordance and early fetal loss: the STORK multiple pregnancy cohort and systematic review. Hum Reprod 2013; 28:2621-7. [DOI: 10.1093/humrep/det277] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
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Can a smaller than expected crown-rump length reliably predict the occurrence of subsequent miscarriage in a viable first trimester pregnancy? J Obstet Gynaecol Res 2013; 39:1449-55. [PMID: 23815274 DOI: 10.1111/jog.12082] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/12/2012] [Accepted: 01/23/2013] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
AIM To elicit the diagnostic value of smaller than expected crown-rump length (CRL) to predict the occurrence of subsequent miscarriage in women with a viable first trimester pregnancy. METHODS A cohort study was conducted in the fetal special care unit of a tertiary care maternity hospital. The recruited participants were young pregnant women at 6-13 weeks of gestation. Transvaginal ultrasonography was performed to determine pregnancy viability and measure the embryonic CRL. To compare the differences in CRL between those pregnancies that remained viable and those that subsequently miscarried, the deviation of observed and expected CRL was calculated and expressed in standard deviations (SD) as Z score. The primary outcome measure was the percentage of pregnancies with antecedent growth delay that miscarried by the end of the first trimester. RESULTS Of the pregnancies that subsequently miscarried, 79.3% (42/53) had smaller than expected CRL, and in 56.6% (30/53) the CRL was 2 SD or less from that expected for gestational age (GA). The mean Z score for CRL was significantly lower in pregnancies that subsequently miscarried compared to pregnancies that remained viable (-2.9 ± 2.6 vs -0.8 ± 2.1, respectively, P < 0.001). A CRL of 2 SD or less from that expected for GA as a cut-off point had a sensitivity of 56.6, specificity of 81.9, positive predictive value of 36.6, negative predictive value of 91.1, likelihood ratio positive of 3.1 and likelihood ratio negative of 0.5 in predicting subsequent miscarriage. CONCLUSION Viable first trimester pregnancies with small for GA CRL were associated with a higher probability of a subsequent miscarriage.
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A prediction model for viability at the end of the first trimester after a single early pregnancy evaluation. Aust N Z J Obstet Gynaecol 2013; 53:51-7. [DOI: 10.1111/ajo.12046] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/12/2012] [Accepted: 11/27/2012] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
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Abstract
The objective of this systematic review was to assess whether the orally acting progestagen, dydrogesterone lowers the incidence of miscarriage in women with threatened miscarriage. A computerized search was performed in Medline, Embase, and Ovid Medline for original reports with the product name 'Duphaston' or 'dydrogesterone', and limited to clinical human data. Twenty-one reports of dydrogesterone treatment were identified with 1380 patients. Five randomized trials were identified, including 660 women who fulfilled the criteria for meta-analysis. The number of subsequent miscarriages or continuing pregnancies per randomized woman was compared in women receiving dydrogesterone compared to standard bed rest or placebo intervention. There was a 13% (44/335) miscarriage rate after dydrogesterone administration compared to 24% in control women [odds ratio for miscarriage 0.47, (CI = 0.31-0.7), 11% absolute reduction in the miscarriage rate]. The adverse and side effects were summarized in all 21 reports, and seemed to be minimal. Although all the predictive and confounding factors could not be controlled for, the results of this systematic review show a significant reduction of 47% in the odds for miscarriage when dydrogesterone is compared to standard care indicating a real treatment effect.
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Accurate prediction of pregnancy viability by means of a simple scoring system. Hum Reprod 2012; 28:68-76. [DOI: 10.1093/humrep/des352] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
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A mathematical model for interpretable clinical decision support with applications in gynecology. PLoS One 2012; 7:e34312. [PMID: 22479598 PMCID: PMC3315538 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0034312] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/09/2011] [Accepted: 02/26/2012] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Over time, methods for the development of clinical decision support (CDS) systems have evolved from interpretable and easy-to-use scoring systems to very complex and non-interpretable mathematical models. In order to accomplish effective decision support, CDS systems should provide information on how the model arrives at a certain decision. To address the issue of incompatibility between performance, interpretability and applicability of CDS systems, this paper proposes an innovative model structure, automatically leading to interpretable and easily applicable models. The resulting models can be used to guide clinicians when deciding upon the appropriate treatment, estimating patient-specific risks and to improve communication with patients. METHODS AND FINDINGS We propose the interval coded scoring (ICS) system, which imposes that the effect of each variable on the estimated risk is constant within consecutive intervals. The number and position of the intervals are automatically obtained by solving an optimization problem, which additionally performs variable selection. The resulting model can be visualised by means of appealing scoring tables and color bars. ICS models can be used within software packages, in smartphone applications, or on paper, which is particularly useful for bedside medicine and home-monitoring. The ICS approach is illustrated on two gynecological problems: diagnosis of malignancy of ovarian tumors using a dataset containing 3,511 patients, and prediction of first trimester viability of pregnancies using a dataset of 1,435 women. Comparison of the performance of the ICS approach with a range of prediction models proposed in the literature illustrates the ability of ICS to combine optimal performance with the interpretability of simple scoring systems. CONCLUSIONS The ICS approach can improve patient-clinician communication and will provide additional insights in the importance and influence of available variables. Future challenges include extensions of the proposed methodology towards automated detection of interaction effects, multi-class decision support systems, prognosis and high-dimensional data.
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Nontraumatic abdominal pain in pregnancy: imaging considerations for a multiorgan system problem. Semin Ultrasound CT MR 2012; 33:18-36. [PMID: 22264900 DOI: 10.1053/j.sult.2011.09.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/21/2023]
Abstract
Nontraumatic abdominal pain in the pregnant patient can present a clinician with a variety of diagnostic possibilities. The overlap between signs and symptoms expected in normal pregnancy and these many pathologic possibilities does little to help focus the clinician's diagnostic efforts. Fear of ionizing radiation's effects on the fetus has driven efforts to refine medical imaging algorithms in such a way as to attempt to eliminate its use at all cost. In today's world, we are nearly there. In this review the differential diagnosis of nontraumatic abdominal pain in the pregnant patient will be explored. Of note is the recurring theme that much of what can be done today with regard to diagnostic imaging, both in general and with regard to this specific subset of patients, centers on the use of the non-ionizing modalities of ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging.
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Abstract
Vaginal bleeding, abdominopelvic pain, nausea, and vomiting are common presenting symptoms in early pregnancy. All women of reproductive age who present with abdominal or pelvic pain or with vaginal bleeding should be evaluated for possible pregnancy. There should be a high index of suspicion for ectopic pregnancy in women presenting with abdominal pain and bleeding after approximately 7 weeks of amenorrhea. Investigation for the cause of the bleeding should ensue. Gestational trophoblastic disease should be considered as a possible cause. Treatment options for nausea during pregnancy should be discussed with women with this common symptom.
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Abstract
AIM The aim of this study was to investigate the etiological characteristics of patients diagnosed with subchorionic hematoma. METHODS A case-controlled study was performed to compare characteristics of patients and controls. Via ultrasound examination, 47 pregnant patients were found to have subchorionic hematomas and 1075 had no evidence of subchorionic hematomas (controls). In the second trimester, patients were compared with regard to endocervical Chlamydia trachomatis and other vaginal microorganisms. RESULTS The overall incidence of subchorionic hematomas in this pregnant population was 4.2%. Maternal clinical characteristics did not differ between cases and controls. Evaluation of the vaginal flora revealed that the positive rates of coagulase-negative staphylococci (cases: 12.8%; controls: 4.1%; P<0.01) and Gardnerella vaginalis (cases: 12.8%; controls: 2.5%; P<0.001) in the cases were significantly higher than those of the controls. The negative rate of Lactobacillus in the cases was significantly higher than that of the controls (cases: 42.6%; controls: 27.6%; P<0.05). CONCLUSION Pregnant women with subchorionic hematoma in the first trimester showed changes in vaginal flora in the second trimester, which suggests a possible association with subchorionic hematoma and vaginal flora change.
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A model and scoring system to predict outcome of intrauterine pregnancies of uncertain viability. ULTRASOUND IN OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY : THE OFFICIAL JOURNAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY OF ULTRASOUND IN OBSTETRICS AND GYNECOLOGY 2011; 37:588-595. [PMID: 21520315 DOI: 10.1002/uog.9007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To define the incidence and outcome of intrauterine pregnancy of uncertain viability (PUV) and to develop and assess the performance of a model and a scoring system to predict ongoing viability. METHODS Of 1881 consecutive women undergoing transvaginal ultrasonography, a cohort of 493 women with an empty gestational sac < 20 mm in mean diameter, gestational sac < 25 mm in mean diameter and containing yolk sac only or an embryonic pole < 6 mm in maximum length and without visible heart activity were followed until the end of the first trimester. Women with multiple pregnancies or who underwent termination of pregnancy were excluded. Outcome measures were pregnancy viability at initial 7-14-day follow-up and first-trimester viability at 11-14 weeks. The data were split randomly into two sets (two-thirds and one-third, respectively) in order to first develop and then test a mathematical model and a 'simple' model in the prediction of viability at each outcome point, based on maternal demographics, ultrasound features and symptoms. The performance of each system was assessed by receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis and calibration plots on a test dataset. RESULTS The incidence of PUV in this population was 29.2% (549/1881). Of the 493 pregnancies with initial (7-14 days) follow-up available, 307 (62.3%) were viable at this time and of the 444 pregnancies with follow-up at the end of the first trimester, 225 (50.7%) were still viable. Initial (7-14-day) viability was predicted by the model with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.837 (95% CI, 0.791-0.884) in the training dataset and 0.821 (95% CI, 0.756-0.885) in the test dataset. First-trimester (11-14-week) viability was predicted by the model with an AUC of 0.788 (95% CI, 0.734-0.842) in the training dataset and 0.774 (95% CI, 0.701-0.848) in the test dataset. The scoring system performed slightly worse than did the model, but had the advantage of being easily applicable. CONCLUSIONS When early pregnancy viability cannot be established immediately with ultrasound, use of either a logistic regression model or a scoring system allows an individualized prediction of first-trimester outcome.
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Abstract
BACKGROUND The aim of this retrospective study was to assess the value of maternal history and ultrasound scan findings at 6-10 weeks for predicting early miscarriage. METHODS Embryonic crown-rump length (CRL), heart rate (HR), gestational sac diameter (GSD) and yolk sac diameter (YSD) were compared in two groups of women with singleton pregnancies attending an early pregnancy unit. In the first group the initial scan demonstrated a live embryo but in a subsequent visit the scan showed a dead embryo, complete or incomplete miscarriage. In the second group with a live embryo there was subsequent live birth of a normal neonate. RESULTS There were 729 pregnancies with miscarriage and 4698 with normal outcome. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that in the prediction of miscarriage the risk was higher in women of African racial origin [odds ratio (OR) 1.62], cigarette smokers (OR 1.91) and those with vaginal bleeding (OR 2.03) and increased with maternal age (OR 1.05) and YSD (OR 1.88) and was inversely related to CRL (OR 0.79), HR (OR 0.96) and GSD (OR 0.84). At false-positive rate of 30%, the detection rate of miscarriage in screening by vaginal bleeding was 45%, 53% by the addition of maternal history factors and 85.7% by the addition of ultrasound findings. CONCLUSIONS In early pregnancy a prediction of miscarriage can be provided by a combination of maternal characteristics and ultrasound findings and the estimated risk can be used to rationalize follow-up. Our multivariate model requires prospective evaluation in a new sample population.
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Abstract
BACKGROUND Miscarriage is a common complication encountered during pregnancy. The role of progesterone in preparing the uterus for the implantation of the embryo and its role in maintaining the pregnancy have been known for a long time. Inadequate secretion of progesterone in early pregnancy has been linked to the aetiology of miscarriage and progesterone supplementation has been used as a treatment for threatened miscarriage to prevent spontaneous pregnancy loss. OBJECTIVES To determine the efficacy and the safety of progestogens in the treatment of threatened miscarriage. SEARCH STRATEGY We searched the Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group's Trials Register (December 2009) and bibliographies of all located articles for any unidentified articles. SELECTION CRITERIA Randomized or quasi-randomized controlled trials that compare progestogen with placebo, no treatment or any other treatment given in an effort to treat threatened miscarriage. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS At least two authors assessed the trials for inclusion in the review and extracted the data. MAIN RESULTS Two studies (84 participants) were included in the meta-analysis. In one study, all the participants met the inclusion criteria and in the other study, only the subgroup of participants who met the inclusion criteria was included in the meta-analysis. There was no evidence of effectiveness with the use vaginal progesterone compared to placebo in reducing the risk of miscarriage (risk ratio 0.47; 95% confidence interval 0.17 to 1.30). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS Based on scarce data from two methodologically poor trials, there is no evidence to support the routine use of progestogens for the treatment of threatened miscarriage. Information about potential harms to the mother or child, or both, with the use of progestogens is lacking. Further, larger, randomized controlled trials on the effect of progestogens on the treatment of threatened miscarriage, which investigate potential harms as well as benefits, are needed.
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Fetal loss in threatened abortion after demonstration of fetal cardiac activity in a low socioeconomic population. J OBSTET GYNAECOL 2011; 30:622-5. [PMID: 20701515 DOI: 10.3109/01443615.2010.489164] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022]
Abstract
This study was conducted to determine the incidence and risk factors of fetal loss in threatened abortion after ultrasonographic detection of fetal cardiac activity in a low socioeconomic population. A total of 202 women with singleton pregnancies who presented with vaginal bleeding in which fetal heart activity was ultrasonographically demonstrated between 5 and 14 weeks' gestation were included. Pregnancies with fetal abnormalities were excluded from the study. All cases were followed-up with respect to pregnancy outcomes. A total of 54 of 202 pregnancies (26.7%) resulted in fetal loss before 20 weeks' gestation. The mean fetal heart rate (FHR) and cervical length values were lower in spontaneous abortions than in viable pregnancies (121.2 +/- 13.3 vs 143.5 +/- 12.4 and 41 +/- 6.0 vs. 34.8 +/- 6.1, respectively; p < 0.001). A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis revealed an area under the curve of 0.88 for FHR and 0.77 for cervical length. A FHR value <130 b.p.m. was 81.4% sensitive, 85.1% specific and a cervical length value <40 mm was 80.8% sensitive, 54.7% specific for determination of fetal loss before 20 weeks' gestation. Fetal loss was observed in about one-quarter of pregnancies admitted with threatened abortion in a low socioeconomic population. Bradycardia and short cervix were found to be significant risk factors affecting the pregnancy outcome in women presenting with vaginal bleeding, in whom fetal cardiac activity was documented.
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The relationship between first trimester fetal growth, pregnancy-associated plasma protein A levels and birthweight. Prenat Diagn 2010; 30:873-8. [PMID: 20658697 DOI: 10.1002/pd.2578] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE We sought to define the relationship between first trimester fetal growth, pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) levels and birthweight. METHODS Two-hundred and one women with repeat first trimester crown-rump length (CRL) measurements were included. In 194, the first trimester PAPP-A value was known and in 169 there was complete data including birthweight. Fetal growth curves were derived using functional linear discriminant analysis (FLDA) and growth compared between those with < 10th percentile, 10th to 90th and > 90th percentile PAPP-A multiple of median (MoM) levels and birthweight percentiles. RESULTS Median maternal age was 35 years, gestation at PAPP-A sampling and of first scan was 11 weeks. Median delivery gestation was 40 weeks and birthweight 3425 g. There was no association between first trimester fetal CRL growth and either PAPP-A MoM percentile or birthweight percentile. There was a significant positive correlation between PAPP-A MoM and birthweight percentile (p = 0.0004). CONCLUSIONS First trimester fetal growth rate is not related to birthweight percentile or first trimester PAPP-A levels. Irrespective of gestation, a low PAPP-A is associated with delivery of a smaller baby, and a high PAPP-A with a larger baby.
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Treatment options for threatened miscarriage. Maturitas 2009; 65 Suppl 1:S35-41. [DOI: 10.1016/j.maturitas.2009.10.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/26/2009] [Revised: 10/28/2009] [Accepted: 10/28/2009] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
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Diagnosing miscarriage. Best Pract Res Clin Obstet Gynaecol 2009; 23:463-77. [DOI: 10.1016/j.bpobgyn.2009.02.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2008] [Accepted: 02/25/2009] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
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Twin growth discrepancy in early pregnancy. ULTRASOUND IN OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY : THE OFFICIAL JOURNAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY OF ULTRASOUND IN OBSTETRICS AND GYNECOLOGY 2009; 34:38-42. [PMID: 19521968 DOI: 10.1002/uog.6422] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To assess whether early fetal growth restriction in a twin, expressed as the intertwin discrepancy in crown-rump length (CRL) between two viable twins at 7 + 0 to 9 + 6 weeks' gestation, is predictive of subsequent single fetal loss. METHODS This was a retrospective analysis of data collected prospectively over 3 years. Women attending an early pregnancy unit underwent a transvaginal ultrasound examination. In women with a viable twin pregnancy between 7 + 0 and 9 + 6 weeks of gestation, the CRL ratio between the two embryos was calculated. Women were followed up and the intertwin discrepancy in CRL at the 7 + 0 to 9 + 6-week scan was compared between cases in which there was spontaneous reduction to a singleton and those in which both twins remained viable at the 11-14-week scan. RESULTS There were 77 women included in the study and nine (12%) of these had a single fetal loss. Pregnancies with subsequent single fetal loss were more likely to have a larger median CRL discrepancy (42.0%; interquartile range (IQR), 23.8-64.3%) than were those which retained two viable fetuses (6.1%; IQR, 2.2-12.5%) (P < 0.0001). The median CRL discrepancy in subsequently viable monochorionic diamniotic twins (10.9%; IQR, 1.9-17.5%) was no different from that in dichorionic diamniotic twin pregnancies (5.9%; IQR, 2.1-12.3%) (P = 0.305). Regardless of chorionicity, there was a relationship between increasing CRL discrepancy and single fetal loss; the likelihood of a subsequently viable twin pregnancy was 97% if the discrepancy was < 20%, while if the discrepancy was > 60% there were no cases of both twins remaining viable (P < 0.0001). Receiver-operating characteristics curve analysis of CRL discrepancy in predicting single fetal loss gave an area under the curve of 0.93, with an optimum cut-off point of 16.9% discrepancy (sensitivity, 88.9%; 95% CI, 51.8-99.7; and specificity, 86.7%; 95% CI, 76.3-93.8). CONCLUSION There is a significant relationship between CRL discrepancy at 7 + 0 to 9 + 6 weeks and the likelihood of subsequent single intrauterine fetal loss. This suggests that spontaneous fetal demise of one twin may be preceded by growth restriction in the first trimester.
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The early pregnancy assessment project: the effect of cooperative care in the emergency department for management of early pregnancy complications. Aust N Z J Obstet Gynaecol 2009; 49:110-4. [PMID: 19281590 DOI: 10.1111/j.1479-828x.2009.00954.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Early pregnancy assessment clinics (EPAC) have been introduced and accepted as the gold standard for management of early pregnancy problems (EPP). However, EPAC are not universally available and management of EPP within the emergency department (ED) can result in prolonged waiting times, inappropriate use of resources and no clear treatment or follow-up plan being implemented. AIM To assess the effect of an early pregnancy assessment protocol (EPAP) in the ED, designed to create a cultural change among doctors in relation to EPP in order to minimise use of resources, improve treatment times for patients and establish a clear management plan where dedicated EPAC services are not available. METHODS An intervention, the EPAP was introduced to the ED and retrospective and prospective audits of the patients were carried out to assess the effect. RESULTS Implementation of the EPAP decreased treatment time by 55%, representations by 48%, pathology blood tests by 56% and formal imaging services by 85%. Gynaecological consultation increased by 37% for each patient visit to the ED and by 9% for each EPP. Total direct cost saving was 63% per patient and no adverse outcomes were recorded. CONCLUSION Introduction of the EPAP was successful in creating cultural change and delivering clinical and financial benefits to the hospital, patients and staff. Early gynaecological consultation and bedside ultrasound scanning within the ED were key factors. Similar benefits could be reproduced in other institutions and for other clinical scenarios where a need has been identified.
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Embryonic heart rate as a prognostic factor for chromosomal abnormalities. JOURNAL OF ULTRASOUND IN MEDICINE : OFFICIAL JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF ULTRASOUND IN MEDICINE 2009; 28:609-614. [PMID: 19389900 DOI: 10.7863/jum.2009.28.5.609] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study was to evaluate the role of a slow embryonic heart rate in embryos before 7 weeks' gestation as a marker in screening for chromosomal abnormalities. METHODS Fifty-seven embryos before 7 weeks' gestation with slow heart rates were compared with 1156 embryos of the same gestational period with normal heart rates. Embryos that showed an increased risk of chromosomal abnormalities in the screening blood tests underwent invasive analysis for abnormal karyotype detection. RESULTS The rates of first-trimester death were 15.8% for pregnancies with slow embryonic heart rates (9 of 57) and 2.5% for those with normal heart rates (29 of 1156). Because of the increased risk of chromosomal abnormalities, amniocentesis was performed on 6 with slow embryonic heart rates and 61 with normal embryonic heart rates. After karyotype analysis, there were 2 fetuses with trisomy 21 in each group, which represented significantly higher percentage of embryos with trisomy 21 in the slow-heart rate group compared with the normal-heart rate group (P < .05). CONCLUSIONS When a slow embryonic heart rate is detected before 7 weeks' gestation, there is a higher likelihood of chromosomal abnormalities.
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Dating and growth in the first trimester. Best Pract Res Clin Obstet Gynaecol 2009; 23:439-52. [PMID: 19282247 DOI: 10.1016/j.bpobgyn.2009.01.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 54] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/06/2009] [Accepted: 01/20/2009] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Measurement of embryonic or foetal size using the greatest length of the embryo or foetal crown rump length can be used to accurately determine the gestational age of a normal first trimester pregnancy to within three to five days. Transvaginal ultrasound scan can be used to measure the size of an embryo and gestation sac earlier than transabdominal ultrasound. The original Robinson curve used for dating pregnancies is still valid in most cases. Ultrasound dating in the first trimester is now recommended for all women with spontaneous pregnancies, even those with certain menstrual dates. First trimester growth in normal pregnancy is not uniform and is influenced by both maternal and foetal factors. Early foetal growth restriction is demonstrated in many pregnancies that subsequently end in first trimester miscarriage and is also demonstrated in fetuses with triploidy, trisomy 18 and possibly trisomy 13. Pregnancies which are small at the 11-14 week ultrasound scan appear to be at risk of later intrauterine growth restriction, preeclampsia and preterm delivery. Cross-sectional and serial measurement of foetal growth in the first trimester may be helpful in predicting both miscarriage and adverse late pregnancy outcomes.
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Assessing first trimester growth: the influence of ethnic background and maternal age. Hum Reprod 2009; 24:284-90. [DOI: 10.1093/humrep/den389] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
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Functional linear discriminant analysis: a new longitudinal approach to the assessment of embryonic growth. Hum Reprod 2008; 24:278-83. [PMID: 18978027 DOI: 10.1093/humrep/den382] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Functional linear discriminant analysis (FLDA) is a new growth assessment technique using serial measurements to discriminate between normal and abnormal fetal growth. We used FLDA to assess and compare growth in live pregnancies destined to miscarry with those remaining viable. METHODS This was a prospective cohort study of women with ultrasound scans on at least two separate occasions showing live pregnancies. Serial crown-rump length (CRL), mean gestational sac diameter and mean yolk sac diameter measurements were recorded. The ability of FLDA to predict subsequent miscarriage was compared with that of a single CRL measurement. RESULTS Of 521 included pregnancies, 493 (94.6%) remained viable at 14 weeks and 28 (5.4%) miscarried. The CRL growth rate was significantly lower in those that miscarried (one-sample t-test, P = 2.638E-22). The sensitivity of FLDA in predicting miscarriage from serial CRL measurements was 60.7% and specificity was 93.1% [positive predictive value (PPV) 33.3%, negative predictive value (NPV) 97.7%]. This was significantly better for predicting miscarriage than a single CRL observation of more than 2SD below that expected (sensitivity 53.6%, specificity 72.2%, PPV 9.9%, NPV 96.5%). CONCLUSIONS FLDA discriminates between normal and abnormal growth to predict miscarriage with high specificity. FLDA predicts miscarriage better than a single observation of a small CRL.
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Evidence of early first-trimester growth restriction in pregnancies that subsequently end in miscarriage. BJOG 2008; 115:1273-8. [PMID: 18715413 DOI: 10.1111/j.1471-0528.2008.01833.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 60] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To examine whether viable early pregnancies that subsequently end in miscarriage exhibit evidence of first-trimester growth restriction. DESIGN Prospective cohort study. SETTING Early pregnancy unit (EPU) of a teaching hospital. POPULATION Women attending EPU between 5 and 10 weeks of gestation. METHODS Women with spontaneously conceived intrauterine, viable singleton pregnancies with certain last menstrual period and regular cycles were included. The deviation between the observed and expected crown-rump length (CRL) for gestation was calculated and expressed as a z score. Pregnancies were followed up until the 11-14 week scan, and the deviation between those that remained viable and miscarried subsequently was calculated. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Viability at 11-14 week scan. RESULTS Over 6 months, 316 women met the inclusion criteria. Twenty-four (7.4%) women were excluded. Of the remaining 292, the pregnancy remained viable in 251 (86%) and 41 (14%) suffered a miscarriage. At the first transvaginal ultrasound, the z score of the mean measured CRL for pregnancies that remained viable was -0.82, SD 1.46, while in pregnancies that subsequently miscarried the z score was -2.42 and the CRL was significantly smaller, SD 1.31 (P < 0.0001). In the latter group, the initial CRL was below the expected mean for gestational age in all women, while in 61% (25/41), the CRL was at least 2 SDs below the expected mean. CONCLUSIONS CRL was significantly smaller in pregnancies that subsequently ended in miscarriage. This suggests that early first-trimester growth restriction is associated with subsequent intrauterine death.
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Abstract
BACKGROUND Miscarriage is a common complication encountered during pregnancy. The role of progesterone in preparing the uterus for the implantation of the embryo and its role in maintaining the pregnancy have been known for a long time. Inadequate secretion of progesterone in early pregnancy has been linked to the aetiology of miscarriage and progesterone supplementation has been used as a treatment for threatened miscarriage to prevent spontaneous pregnancy loss. OBJECTIVES To determine the efficacy and the safety of progestogens in the treatment of threatened miscarriage. SEARCH STRATEGY We searched the Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group's Trials Register (December 2006), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (The Cochrane Library 2006, Issue 1), MEDLINE (January 1966 to April 2006), EMBASE (1980 to April 2006) and CINAHL (1982 to April 2006). We scanned bibliographies of all located articles for any unidentified articles. SELECTION CRITERIA Randomized or quasi-randomized controlled trials that compare progestogen with placebo, no treatment or any other treatment given in an effort to treat threatened miscarriage. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS At least two authors assessed the trials for inclusion in the review and extracted the data. MAIN RESULTS Two studies (84 participants) were included in the meta-analysis. In one study, all the participants met the inclusion criteria and in the other study, only the subgroup of participants who met the inclusion criteria was included in the meta-analysis. There was no evidence of effectiveness with the use vaginal progesterone compared to placebo in reducing the risk of miscarriage (relative risk 0.47; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.17 to 1.30). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS Based on scarce data from two methodologically poor trials, there is no evidence to support the routine use of progestogens for the treatment of threatened miscarriage. Information about potential harms to the mother or child, or both, with the use of progestogens is lacking. Further, larger, randomized controlled trials on the effect of progestogens on the treatment of threatened miscarriage, which investigate potential harms as well as benefits, are needed.
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Early serum β-human chorionic gonadotropin in pregnancies after in vitro fertilization: contribution of treatment variables and prediction of long-term pregnancy outcome. Fertil Steril 2007; 88:82-9. [PMID: 17307176 DOI: 10.1016/j.fertnstert.2006.11.116] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/13/2006] [Revised: 11/21/2006] [Accepted: 11/21/2006] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Low initial serum beta hCG is a good predictor of early pregnancy failure. We sought to determine the contribution of treatment variables and the predictive value of early serum beta hCG after IVF on long-term pregnancy outcome. DESIGN A retrospective case-control study. SETTING An academic IVF unit. PATIENT(S) Five hundred thirty-three IVF cycles performed between 1999 and 2004, which resulted in a positive serum beta hCG level (> 10 mIU/mL) on day 13 after embryo transfer (ET). INTERVENTION(S) The study group included 281 pregnancies with initial beta hCG < or = 150 mIU/mL on day 13 after ET. Randomly selected 252 IVF cycles with initial beta hCG > 150 mIU/mL comprised the control group. Characteristics of the patients and the treatment protocols were analyzed using logistic regression, Pearson's chi-square, and Fisher's exact test. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S) Primary pregnancy outcome was defined as favorable when a fetal pulse was detected, testifying to a viable gestation. Unfavorable outcome referred to chemical or ectopic pregnancies, as well as spontaneous abortions. Additionally, the two groups were followed throughout gestation. Secondary pregnancy outcome was based on the following parameters: gestational age at delivery, method of delivery, and birth weight. RESULT(S) Poor primary pregnancy outcome was encountered in 64.8% of the study group and in 22.2% of the control group. Predictors of unfavorable primary pregnancy outcome were older age, use of a short protocol, and shorter than anticipated crown-rump length. No difference was found in the secondary pregnancy outcome between the groups. Preterm labor was more prevalent in the study group, but the difference did not reach statistical significance. CONCLUSION(S) Pregnancy viability can be predicted by measuring serum beta hCG as early as on day 13 after ET. Older age, use of a short protocol, and shorter than anticipated crown-rump length are associated with early pregnancy loss. Of those who reach delivery, no significant adverse outcome is anticipated in IVF pregnancies with low initial serum beta hCG.
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Safety of Chorionic Villus Sampling in the Presence of Asymptomatic Subchorionic Hematoma. Fetal Diagn Ther 2007; 22:394-400. [DOI: 10.1159/000103303] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2006] [Accepted: 08/08/2006] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
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Correlation of maternal plasma total cell-free DNA and fetal DNA levels with short term outcome of first-trimester vaginal bleeding. Hum Reprod 2007; 22:1736-43. [PMID: 17416916 DOI: 10.1093/humrep/dem058] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The current methods using sonographic parameters and/or maternal serum beta-HCG levels to predict spontaneous abortion are not satisfactory. The aim of this study was to determine whether maternal plasma fetal DNA and total DNA levels could be used to predict spontaneous abortion. METHODS We prospectively studied pregnant women who presented with vaginal bleeding in the first trimester of pregnancy, and those who had no vaginal bleeding (controls). DYS14 and the beta-globin gene were used to measure the maternal plasma levels of fetal and total DNA, respectively, by real-time PCR. RESULTS A total of 1114 women were studied. Both maternal plasma fetal and total DNA concentrations increased with gestation from 6 to 11.6 weeks in the controls. The multiple of medians (MoMs) of fetal and total DNA concentration in those who miscarried were significantly greater (P < 0.001) than in the normal controls by about 5- and 4-fold respectively. Using a cut-off value of 1.6 MoMs for total DNA to predict spontaneous abortion, the sensitivity was 98.2% and false positive rate was 4.7%. However, using a cut-off value of 1.8 MoMs for fetal DNA, the corresponding figures were 97% and 44.3%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Both maternal plasma fetal and total DNA concentrations increased throughout the first trimester. Significantly high levels of fetal and total DNA were found in those who miscarried.
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Abstract
This chapter summarizes the diagnostic performance (sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios) of ultrasound, computer tomography, and magnetic resonance imaging in the diagnosis of various gynecological diseases and tumors. Positron emission tomography is not discussed. Imaging in infertility, in the diagnosis of Mullerian duct anomalies and in gynecological oncology (staging of gynecological cancers, diagnosis of recurrence of gynecological cancer, diagnosis of trophoblastic tumors) is not dealt with. Ultrasound is the first-line imaging method for discrimination between viable intrauterine pregnancy, miscarriage and tubal pregnancy in women with bleeding and/or pain in early pregnancy, for discrimination between benign and malignant adnexal masses and for making a specific diagnosis in adnexal tumors (e.g. dermoid cyst, endometrioma, hemorrhagic corpus luteum, etc.), for diagnosing intracavitary uterine pathology in women with bleeding problems, and for confirming or refuting pelvic pathology in women with pelvic pain. Magnetic resonance imaging can have a role as a secondary test in the diagnosis of adenomyosis, 'deep endometriosis' (e.g. endometriosis in the rectovaginal septum or in the uterosacral ligaments), and in the diagnosis of extremely rare types of ectopic pregnancy (e.g. in the spleen, liver or retroperitoneum).
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First-trimester Doppler investigation of the uterine circulation. Am J Obstet Gynecol 2006; 195:1210-8. [PMID: 16615924 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajog.2005.12.047] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/12/2005] [Revised: 12/05/2005] [Accepted: 12/22/2005] [Indexed: 10/24/2022]
Abstract
There is now strong evidence that fetal events can significantly impact postnatal health and disease development. Doppler velocimetry can identify some early pathologic changes in pregnancy. Many investigators have tried to delineate the normal and pathologic models of the uterine circulation in the first trimester, but much has yet to be defined. A discrete amount of confusion derives from the incomplete knowledge of the initial placental development, and particularly the development of the intervillous circulation. This article comprehensively reviews the literature on first-trimester Doppler in both normal and complicated pregnancies, and briefly discusses potential future areas of application.
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Quantitative and morphological assessment of early gestational sacs using three-dimensional ultrasonography. ULTRASOUND IN OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY : THE OFFICIAL JOURNAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY OF ULTRASOUND IN OBSTETRICS AND GYNECOLOGY 2006; 28:255-60. [PMID: 16937412 DOI: 10.1002/uog.2840] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/11/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Our main objective was to determine the value of three-dimensional ultrasonography (3DUS) and Virtual Organ Computer-aided AnaLysis (VOCAL) in the evaluation of gestational sac volume and morphology during early pregnancy. METHODS Twenty-eight normal early pregnancies were scanned approximately every 2 weeks using transabdominal (TAS) and transvaginal (TVS) sonography. The VOCAL technique was used to create computerized surface models to classify gestational sac shapes as discoid or ellipsoid. Serial sac volume changes were analyzed using repeated measures ANOVA. Bland-Altman plots determined examiner bias and limits of agreement (LOA) for sac volume measurements. Gestational sac volumes were compared between the two-dimensional (2D) ellipsoid and VOCAL techniques. Differences between volume measurements were tested using the two-tailed paired t-test with statistical significance at the P < 0.05 level. RESULTS Each subject was examined at a mean +/- SD menstrual age of 7.9 +/- 0.6 weeks (Scan 1), 9.9 +/- 0.6 weeks (Scan 2), and 11.9 +/- 0.6 weeks (Scan 3). Sac volumes significantly increased over time from 22 +/- 11 mL at Scan 1, to 57 +/- 21 mL at Scan 2 and 116 +/- 35 mL at Scan 3 (P < 0.001). Predominant sac shapes were classified as ellipsoid (76.2%) or discoid (23.8%). Additional descriptors included: concave (60.7%), irregular (53.6%), or smooth (7.1%), with 19% of the overall group having more than one additional shape attribute. Clinically acceptable volume measurement bias and agreement were found for the following comparisons: (1) TAS versus TVS; (2) interobserver volume measurements; and (3) intraobserver volume measurements. The VOCAL technique yielded slightly greater sac volumes (64 +/- 45.4 mL) when compared to the 2D ellipsoid model (48.6 +/- 36.8 mL) (28.9 +/- 24.3% (95% limit of agreement range, - 18.7 to 76.5%), P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Reproducible sac volume measurements can be obtained using VOCAL with either TAS or TVS. Early gestational sacs variably appear as discoid or ellipsoid structures with a concave indentation from the placenta. Sac volumes can be underestimated if an ellipsoid shape is assumed. Morphological and quantitative analysis of the gestational sac may provide baseline parameters for studying patients at risk for early pregnancy failure.
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Abstract
The management of gynaecological emergencies is directed at the preservation of life, health, sexual function and the perpetuation of fertility. Ectopic pregnancy (EP), pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) and miscarriages are common gynaecological emergencies and early recognition and appropriate treatment is essential to avoid unwanted sequelae. Controversy will always exist in clinical medicine because management is mainly based on uncontrolled studies, expert opinion and personal experiences. It is estimated that only 10% of clinical treatments have been validated by prospective, randomised trials. Recent advances have led to earlier diagnosis and more conservative treatment on an outpatient or day care basis in EP and miscarriages.
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The chorionic bump: a first-trimester pregnancy sonographic finding associated with a guarded prognosis. JOURNAL OF ULTRASOUND IN MEDICINE : OFFICIAL JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF ULTRASOUND IN MEDICINE 2006; 25:757-63. [PMID: 16731892 DOI: 10.7863/jum.2006.25.6.757] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/09/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE We describe a series of patients with a previously unreported sonographic finding, the chorionic "bump," which is an irregular, convex bulge from the choriodecidual surface into the first-trimester gestational sac. The pregnancy outcome is investigated in this series of patients and compared with the general population and infertility first-trimester control groups. METHODS We prospectively noted a cohort of 15 cases with the chorionic bump on first-trimester sonograms (in a total of 2178 patients) performed over 3 years at our institution (prevalence, 0.7%). We then compared pregnancy outcomes against 2 pregnant control groups (15 general, noninfertility patients and 15 infertility patients) who were maternal age and gestational age matched to our patient group. RESULTS The difference in outcomes between the patients with bumps and the healthy control subjects was statistically significant (7 live births versus 13 live births; P < .03), but the difference in outcomes between the patients with bumps and infertility control subjects was not statistically significant (7 live births versus 11 live births; P = .1). Bump size was not correlated with pregnancy outcome. In most patients with serial sonograms, the bump showed evolutionary changes typical for hematoma. CONCLUSIONS The finding of a chorionic bump on the first-trimester sonogram is associated with a guarded prognosis for the early pregnancy (live birth rate <50%); it probably represents a small hematoma that bulges into the gestational sac, and, in our series, most patients had a history of infertility treatments.
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