Improving Human Diets and Welfare through Using Herbivore-Based Foods: 1. Human and Animal Perspectives

Human health and diet are closely linked. The diversity of diets consumed by humans is remarkable, and most often incorporates both animal and plant-based foods. However, there has been a recent call for a reduced intake of animal-based foods due to concerns associated with human health in developed countries and perceived impacts on the environment. Yet, evidence for the superior nutritional quality of animal-sourced food such as meat, milk, and eggs, compared with plant-based foods, indicates that consumption of animal-sourced food should and will continue. This being the case, the aim here is to examine issues associated with animal-sourced foods in terms of both the quantification and mitigation of unintended consequences associated with environment, animal health, and herd management. Therefore, we examined the role of animal proteins in human societies with reference to the UN-FAO issues associated with animal-sourced foods. The emphasis is on dominant grazed pastoral-based systems, as used in New Zealand and Ireland, both with temperate moist climates and a similar reliance on global markets for generating net wealth from pastoral agricultural products. In conclusion, animal-sourced foods are shown to be an important part of the human diet. Production systems can result in unintended consequences associated with environment, animal health, and herd management, and there are technologies and systems to provide solutions to these that are available or under refinement.

South American Dry Chaco rangelands: Positive effects of cattle trampling and transit on ecohydrological functioning

Livestock production in drylands requires consideration of the ecological applications of ecohydrological redistribution of water. Intensive cattle trampling and the associated increase of surface runoff are common concerns for rangeland productivity and sustainability. Here, we highlight a regional livestock production system in which cattle trails and trampling surrounding an artificial impoundment are purposely managed to enhance redistribution and availability of water for cattle drinking. Based on literature synthesis and field measurements, we first describe cattle production systems and surface water redistribution in the Dry Chaco rangelands of South America, and then develop a conceptual framework to synthesize the ecohydrological impacts of livestock production on these ecosystems. Critical to this framework is the pioshere-a degraded overgrazed and overtrampled area where vegetation has difficulties growing, usually close to the water points. The Dry Chaco rangelands have three key distinctive characteristics associated with the flat sedimentary environment lacking fresh groundwater and the very extensive ranching conditions: (1) cattle drinking water is provided by artificial impoundments filled by runoff, (2) heavy trampling around the impoundment and its adjacent areas generates a piosphere that favors runoff toward the impoundment, and (3) the impoundment, piosphere, and extensive forage areas are hydrologically connected with a network of cattle trails. We propose an ecohydrological framework where cattle transit and trampling alter the natural water circulation of these ecosystems, affecting small fractions of the landscape through increased runoff (compaction in piosphere and trails), surface connectivity (convergence of trails to piosphere to impoundment), and ponding (compaction of the impoundment floor) that operate together making water harvesting and storage possible. These effects have likely generated a positive water feedback on the expansion of livestock in the region with a relatively low impact on forage production. We highlight the role of livestock transit as a geomorphological agent capable of reshaping the hydrology of flat sedimentary rangelands in ways that can be managed positively for sustainable ranching systems. We suggest that the Dry Chaco offers an alternative paradigm for rangelands in which cattle trampling may contribute to sustainable seminatural production systems with implications for other dry and flat rangelands of the world.

Empowering Indigenous natural hazards management in northern Australia

Northern Australia is prone to recurring severe natural hazards, especially frequent cyclones, flooding, and extensive wildfires. The region is sparsely populated (≪ 0.5 persons km^-2), with Indigenous (Aboriginal) residents comprising 14% of the population, and typically the majority in remote regions. Despite national policy committed to addressing emergency management (EM) in vulnerable Indigenous communities, implementation remains unfunded. We synthesise participatory intercultural research conducted over seven years exploring core challenges, opportunities and potential solutions towards developing effective EM partnerships. Similar EM engagement and empowerment issues face First Nations and local communities in many international settings. In search of solutions, we explore developing effective partnership arrangements between EM agencies and culturally diverse Indigenous communities. Observing that government already provides substantial investment in cultural and natural resource management programmes conducted by over 150 Indigenous Ranger Groups (IRGs) nationally, we demonstrate that expansion of IRG roles to incorporate EM community engagement and service delivery can provide multiple cost-effective community and business development benefits for many remote communities.

Multi-week prediction of livestock chill conditions associated with the northwest Queensland floods of February 2019

The compound extreme weather event that impacted northern Queensland in February 2019 featured record-breaking rainfall, persistent high wind gusts and relatively cold day-time temperatures. This caused livestock losses numbering around 500,000 in the northwest Queensland Gulf region. In this study, we examine the livestock chill conditions associated with this week-long compound weather event and its potential for prediction from eleven world-leading sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecast systems. The livestock chill index combines daily rainfall, wind and surface temperature data. Averaged over the event week, the potential heat loss of livestock was in the moderate to high category, with severe conditions on the day of peak rainfall (5 February). Using calibrated forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology's S2S forecast system, ACCESS-S1, a 1-week lead prediction showed a 20–30% probability of extreme livestock chill conditions over the northwest Queensland Gulf region, however the highest probabilities were located to the west of where the greatest livestock impacts were observed. Of the remaining ten S2S systems, around half predicted a more than 20% chance of extreme conditions, more than twice the climatological probability. It appears that the prediction accuracy arose from the skilful forecasts of extreme rainfall, as opposed to cold day-time temperature and strong wind forecasts. Despite a clear association between the observed extreme weather conditions and an active Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) event stalling in the western Pacific, the majority of 1-week lead S2S forecasts showed little indication of a slow-down in the MJO. As the livestock chill index was developed for southern Australian sheep, it may not be the best metric to represent the effects of exposure on tropical cattle breeds. Hence, this study draws attention to the need for tailored diagnostics that better represent the cold effects of summer tropical cyclones and tropical depressions on northern Australian livestock.

Pastures and Climate Extremes: Impacts of Cool Season Warming and Drought on the Productivity of Key Pasture Species in a Field Experiment

Shifts in the timing, intensity and/or frequency of climate extremes, such as severe drought and heatwaves, can generate sustained shifts in ecosystem function with important ecological and economic impacts for rangelands and managed pastures. The Pastures and Climate Extremes experiment (PACE) in Southeast Australia was designed to investigate the impacts of a severe winter/spring drought (60% rainfall reduction) and, for a subset of species, a factorial combination of drought and elevated temperature (ambient +3°C) on pasture productivity. The experiment included nine common pasture and Australian rangeland species from three plant functional groups (C3 grasses, C4 grasses and legumes) planted in monoculture. Winter/spring drought resulted in productivity declines of 45% on average and up to 74% for the most affected species (Digitaria eriantha) during the 6-month treatment period, with eight of the nine species exhibiting significant yield reductions. Despite considerable variation in species' sensitivity to drought, C4 grasses were more strongly affected by this treatment than C3 grasses or legumes. Warming also had negative effects on cool-season productivity, associated at least partially with exceedance of optimum growth temperatures in spring and indirect effects on soil water content. The combination of winter/spring drought and year-round warming resulted in the greatest yield reductions. We identified responses that were either additive (Festuca), or less-than-additive (Medicago), where warming reduced the magnitude of drought effects. Results from this study highlight the sensitivity of diverse pasture species to increases in winter and spring drought severity similar to those predicted for this region, and that anticipated benefits of cool-season warming are unlikely to be realized. Overall, the substantial negative impacts on productivity suggest that future, warmer, drier climates will result in shortfalls in cool-season forage availability, with profound implications for the livestock industry and natural grazer communities.

Enhancing climate resilience of irrigated agriculture: A review

Emerging evidence showing trends in climate change with a strong likelihood those changes will continue elevates the importance of finding affordable adaptations by irrigated agriculture. Successful climate adaptation measures are needed to affordably sustain irrigated agriculture in the face of elevated carbon emissions affecting the reliability of water supplies. Numerous potential adaptation options are available for adjusting irrigated agricultural systems to implement climate risk adaptation. This work focuses on addressing the gap in the literature defined by a scarcity of reviews on measures to elevate the capacity of irrigated agriculture to enhance its climate change resilience. Accordingly, the original contribution of this work is to review the literature describing measures for enhancing climate resilience by irrigated agriculture. In addition, it describes the role of economic analysis to discover affordable measures to enhance resilience by irrigated agriculture. It achieves those aims by posing the question "What principles, practices, and recent developments are available to guide discovery of measures to improve resilience by irrigated agriculture to adapt to ongoing evidence of climate change?" It addresses that question by reviewing several risk reduction measures to control the economic cost of losses to irrigators in the face of growing water supply unreliability. Following this review, a role for optimizing a portfolio of climate adaptation measures is described, followed by a discussion of potential contributions that can be made by the use of hydroeconomic analysis. Results provide a framework for economic analysis to discover economically attractive methods to elevate resilience of irrigated agriculture.

Spatial-Temporal Variation Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Vegetation in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2019

Vegetation is a crucial and intuitive index that can be used to evaluate the ecological status. Since the 20th century, land use has changed significantly in Yellow River Basin (YRB), along with great changes of vegetation, serious soil erosion, and gradual ecological deterioration. To improve the ecological environment in the YRB, China has carried out a series of ecological protection projects since the 1970s. Therefore, long-term sequence monitoring of vegetation in YRB is necessary to show the conservation effect and better support the further protection and restoration. This study analysed vegetation changes from 2000 to 2019 based on an annual mean fractional vegetation cover (FVC) dataset. The Theil–Sen median trend analysis method was used to analyse trends in FVC. The results showed that the vegetation in the YRB has improved significantly, with an average annual growth rate of 0.65%, and the ‘green line’ of vegetation has moved approximately 300 km westward. The influence of climate on vegetation is essential; therefore, this study also analysed the influence of temperature and precipitation on vegetation over time and space. Ecological control and afforestation are important anthropogenic factors that affect vegetation. The growth trend (0.6%/a) in key ecological function regions (KEFRs) was the fastest, and even though the protection measures are not strict, they provide space for afforestation. The China Ecological Conservation Red Line (CECRL) and the national nature reserves (NNRs) showed relatively flat trends. Ecological afforestation projects were closely correlated with the growth trend of the FVC. The correlation between FVC and the intensity of ecological engineering was significant in typical areas.

Beyond livestock carrying capacity in the Sahelian and Sudanian zones of West Africa

We applied the process-based model, LandscapeDNDC, to estimate feed availability in the Sahelian and Sudanian agro-ecological zones of West Africa as a basis for calculating the regional Livestock Carrying Capacity (LCC). Comparison of the energy supply (S) from feed resources, including natural pasture, browse, and crop residues, with energy demand (D) of the livestock population for the period 1981-2020 allowed us to assess regional surpluses (S > D) or deficits (S < D) in feed availability. We show that in the last 40 years a large-scale shift from surplus to deficit has occurred. While during 1981-1990 only 27% of the area exceeded the LCC, it was 72% for the period 2011-2020. This was caused by a reduction in the total feed supply of ~ 8% and an increase in feed demand of ~ 37% per-decade, driven by climate change and increased livestock population, respectively. Overall, the S/D decreased from ~ 2.6 (surplus) in 1981 to ~ 0.5 (deficit) in 2019, with a north-south gradient of increasing S/D. As climate change continues and feed availability may likely further shrink, pastoralists either need to source external feed or significantly reduce livestock numbers to avoid overgrazing, land degradation, and any further conflicts for resources.

Heavy grazing of buffel grass pasture in the Brigalow Belt bioregion of Queensland, Australia, more than tripled runoff and exports of total suspended solids compared to conservative grazing

Loss of sediment and particulate nutrients in runoff from the extensive grazing lands of the Fitzroy Basin, central Queensland, continue to contribute to the declining health of the Great Barrier Reef. This study measured differences in hydrology and water quality from conservative and heavy grazing pressures on rundown improved grass pastures in the Fitzroy Basin. Conservative grazing pressure was defined as the safe long-term carrying capacity for rundown buffel grass pasture, whereas heavy grazing pressure was defined as the recommended stocking rate for newly established buffel grass pasture. Heavy grazing of rundown pasture resulted in 2.5 times more bare ground and only 8% of the pasture biomass compared to conservative grazing. Heavy grazing also resulted in 3.6 times more total runoff and 3.3 times the peak runoff rate compared to conservative grazing. Loads of total suspended solids, nitrogen and phosphorus in runoff were also greater from heavy than conservative grazing.

Phenotypic and genetic effects of season on milk production traits in dairy cattle in the Netherlands

Milk production systems in several countries show considerable differences between seasons. For example, in the Netherlands, cows are kept inside and fed silage in winter, whereas they are on pasture in summer. The differences between seasons affect milk yield and composition and might influence the genetic background of milk production traits. The objective of this study was to estimate phenotypic and genetic effects of season on milk production traits. For this purpose, 19,286 test-day milk production records of 1,800 first-parity Dutch Holstein-Frisian cows were available, and these cows were genotyped using a 50K SNP panel. Phenotypic effects of season were significant for all milk production traits. Effects of season were large for milk fat yield, fat content, and protein content. Genetic correlations between milk production traits in different seasons showed that genotype by season interaction effects were relatively small for most milk production traits. The genetic background of protein content and lactose content seems to be sensitive to seasonal effects. Furthermore, the genetic correlations between spring and autumn differed significantly from unity for almost all milk production traits. A genome-wide association study for genotype by season interaction identified chromosomal regions on BTA3, BTA14, BTA20, and BTA25 that showed genotype by season interaction effects, including a region containing DGAT1, which showed interaction effects for fat content and protein content.

Optimizing livestock carrying capacity for wild ungulate-livestock coexistence in a Qinghai-Tibet Plateau grassland

Wild ungulates are an important part of terrestrial ecosystems and play a critical role in maintaining ecosystem health and integrity. In many grassland ecosystems that are habituated by wild ungulates, the coexistence of domestic ungulates has created a conflict over grazing resources. Solving this conflict requires a balanced and sustainable policy that satisfies both the needs of wildlife protection and food production. Here, we assess the optimal grassland livestock carrying capacity of an alpine grassland on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, given the coexistence of wild populations of kiangs (Equus kiang) and Tibetan gazelles (Procapra picticaudata), two key species grazing in this region. We use kriging and the MaxEnt method to estimate the population sizes of kiangs and Tibetan gazelles in Maduo County, Qinghai Province. We then convert the estimated population size of the two species into sheep units and calculate the residual carrying capacity for livestock grazing. We show that after accounting for the grazing need for kiangs and Tibetan gazelles, grassland in Maduo is capable of supporting 420,641 sheep units, which is slightly more than the current livestock population. However, the residual carrying capacity is highly uneven across the region, and overgrazing is found in many areas of Maduo, especially in northern Maduo. This research provides a useful framework for planning sustainable livestock farming for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and other regions facing wildlife-livestock conflict.

Sustainability of beef production from brigalow lands after cultivation and mining. 3. Pasture rundown, climate and grazing pressure effects

Context The Acland Land System overlying the Walloon sandstone coal deposits in southern Queensland is generally marginal for cropping but well suited to grazing, and thus cultivated land is commonly returned to pasture. Rehabilitation of these lands after open-cut coal mining seeks to be safe, stable and self-sustaining to satisfy requirements for ecologically sustainable development. Aims The present paper evaluates the sustainability and economic viability of beef production on (a) lands retired from cultivation and then rehabilitated with sown pastures after open-cut coal mining at the New Acland mine site, and (b) similar nearby pasture lands that were not mined but were also retired from cultivation. Methods The GRASP grazing systems model was modified and calibrated with short-term (5-year) grazing trial data (soil, pasture and cattle observations), and then used with long-term (60-year) weather data to estimate effects of land type, pasture rundown, climate and grazing pressure on productivity and economic returns. The productivity of three rehabilitated sites and 15 unmined sites were evaluated, including pastures on six commercial properties. Key results Estimates of long-term mean annual growth of pastures on unmined lands retired from cultivation on three land types (Mountain Coolibah, Brigalow Uplands and Poplar Box) were 3398, 2817 and 2325 kg/ha respectively. Pasture growth was greater on rehabilitated lands; 3736 kg/ha on the site most typical of rehabilitated lands and a mean of 4959 kg/ha across three sites. Seasonal conditions had large effects on cattle liveweight gain (133–213 kg/head per year during the trial); however, pasture growth was the main driver of beef production and economic returns per hectare. In GRASP, potential nitrogen uptake was used to influence key pasture growth processes and accounted for 64% of variation in observed annual growth. The short-term lift and subsequent rundown in productivity typically associated with sown pastures was estimated to have increased mean annual pasture and cattle productivity during the 2014–2018 trial period by up to 17% and 25% respectively. Estimates of long-term mean annual beef production and economic returns for the unmined lands were less than estimated for rehabilitated lands and were 139 kg/head.year (45 kg/ha.year) and AU$154/adult equivalent. Conclusions Rehabilitated lands were found to be sustainable for beef production at grazing pressures up to 30% utilisation of annual pasture growth, and comparable with grazing systems on native and sown pastures in good condition. Pastures on unmined lands retired from cultivation had reduced productivity. Implications Overgrazing is a significant and on-going residual risk to sustainable production. Grazing regimes need to continually adjust for changes in novel landscapes, pasture condition and climate. The methods used in the present study could be applied more generally.

Sustainability of beef production from brigalow lands after cultivation and mining. 1. Sown pasture growth and carrying capacity

Context New Acland coal mine in south-eastern Queensland is seeking to rehabilitate mined land to pastures that are safe, stable and sustainable for beef production. Little is known of the productivity and sustainability of grazing previously mined land in the Darling Downs study region. Additionally, information is required to specify management guidelines for sustainable grazing of regional land types retired from cultivation. Aims Identify pasture growth characteristics, rainfall use efficiencies and long-term carrying capacities of subtropical sown pastures established on lands rehabilitated after open-cut coal mining in comparison to sown pastures established on un-mined but previously cultivated lands. Methods Pasture growth and quality (% nitrogen) were observed using the Swiftsynd methodology in ungrazed exclosures with three sites on rehabilitated lands of the Acland Grazing Trial over a 5-year period (2014–2018), and 13 sites on unmined lands over periods of 2–5 years providing data for modelling pasture growth. Key results Peak pasture yield (TSDM for autumn harvests) averaged for 2017 and 2018 was greater (P &lt; 0.1) on rehabilitated sites than unmined Poplar Box land type sites (5957 and 2233 kg/ha respectively) but similar to Brigalow Uplands and Mountain Coolibah land type sites (3946 and 3413 kg/ha respectively). Pasture rundown was evident, with pasture N uptake decreasing over 5 years at some sites. Soil mineral N supply (potentially mineralisable N and mineral N) in spring was a useful indicator of N uptake over the following growing season. Simulations using the GRASP pasture growth model for the grazing trial period predicted rainfall use efficiencies of 12.0, 7.0, 9.1 and 4.8 kg/ha.mm rainfall for rehabilitated sites and unmined sites on Brigalow Uplands, Mountain Coolibah and Poplar Box land types respectively. Long-term carrying capacities based on estimates of long-term median pasture growth and 30% utilisation were 4.39, 3.58 and 5.92 ha/adult equivalent respectively for the unmined land types, and 2.45 ha/adult equivalent for the rehabilitated lands. Conclusions Rehabilitated land can be as productive as unmined but previously cultivated land. Implications Grazing management plans for sustainable management of mined and unmined lands can be developed using data from the present study. The plans will assist with the transition of rehabilitated lands to commercial agriculture.

Prospects for sustainable use of the pastoral areas of Australia’s southern rangelands: a synthesis

There is growing recognition of the need to achieve land use across the southern Australian rangelands that accommodates changing societal preferences and ensures the capacity of future generations to satisfy their own preferences. This paper considers the prospects for sustainable use of the pastoral lands based either on continued grazing or emerging, alternative land uses. After an overview of the southern rangelands environment, the status of the pastoral industry, its environmental impacts, and key issues for pastoral management, we propose four principles and 19 associated guidelines for sustainable pastoralism. Although some continued withdrawal of land from pastoralism is anticipated, we expect that pastoralism will continue throughout much of the region currently grazed, particularly in the higher rainfall environments in the east. Within these areas, sustainable pastoral land use should be achievable by the application of four broad management principles, as follows: (1) manage grazing within a risk management framework based on the concept of tactical grazing, (2) develop infrastructure to allow best management of both domestic and non-domestic grazing pressure, (3) incorporate management of invasive native scrub, where required, into overall, ongoing property management and (4) manage grazing to enhance biodiversity conservation at landscape scale. Application of these principles and guidelines will require the development of appropriate policy settings, particularly in relation to kangaroo management, climate change, and natural resource governance, together with innovative approaches to research, development and extension. Policy development will also be required if the new industry of carbon sequestration is to deliver socio-ecological benefits without perverse outcomes. Other emerging industries based on renewable energy or ecosystem services appear to have considerable potential, with little risk of adverse ecological consequences.

Queensland’s multi-year Wet and Dry periods: implications for grazing enterprises and pasture resources

Year-to-year variability in rainfall has long been recognised as a major issue in managing livestock enterprises across Australia’s grazing lands. Extension products documenting rainfall variability have been developed over the last 30 years and have been keenly sought by producers and their advisors. This paper describes multi-year rainfall variability from 1889 to 2020 and provides the basis for classifying the 131 years of rainfall into 18 discrete Wet (7), Average (2) and Dry (9) periods as presented in the ‘Queensland’s Extended Wet and Dry Periods’ poster. The classification was consistent with: analysis of fluctuations and trends in the long-term time series of reported livestock numbers; drought declarations for government assistance; and documented periods of pasture resource degradation and recovery. Rainfall during the nine Wet and Average periods was +18% above the long-term average annual rainfall (LTAAR), in contrast to the Dry periods with −17% below LTAAR. Wet periods (including Average) were on average 7 years in duration, ranging from 5 to 9 years. Dry periods were on average 8 years in duration and ranged from 5 to 13 years. Detailed analysis of the effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon indicated that: (a) the Wet/Dry periods were dominated by different frequencies and amounts of rainfall in La Niña/El Niño years; (b) rainfall in ENSO neutral years was generally above and below average rainfall for the Wet or Dry periods respectively; (c) the frequency of ENSO year-types was less important than the overall rainfall surplus (or deficit) in La Niña (or El Niño) years within the Wet (or Dry) periods respectively; and (d) the timing of Wet and Dry periods was correlated with indices of quasi-decadal and inter-decadal variability in components (sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressures) of the global climate system. Climatic risk assessment systems for grazing management at multi-year timescales are yet to be developed.

An online system for calculating and delivering long-term carrying capacity information for Queensland grazing properties. Part 2: modelling and outputs

A combination of field data and models have been used to estimate long-term carrying capacity (LTCC) of domestic livestock in Queensland grazing lands. These methods have been synthesised and coupled with recent developments in science and information technology to provide a fully-automated approach of modelling LTCC through the FORAGE online system. In this study, the GRASP model was used to simulate pasture growth with parameter sets and safe pasture utilisation rates defined for 225 land types across Queensland. Distance to water points was used to assess the accessibility of pastures to livestock. Spatial analysis classified the property into unique areas based on paddock, land type and distance to water points, which estimated pasture growth, pasture utilisation and accessibility at a sub-paddock scale. Thirteen foliage projective cover (FPC) classes were used in modelling the pasture system to deal with the non-linear relationship between tree and grass interactions. As ‘proof of concept’, remotely-sensed individual-date green ground cover data were used to optimise the GRASP model parameters to improve the model performance, and a Monte Carlo analysis provided uncertainty estimates for model outcomes. The framework provides an efficient and standardised method for estimating LTCC. To test the system, LTCCs from 43 ‘benchmark’ properties were compared with simulated LTCCs, and 65% of the modelled LTCCs were within ± 25% of the benchmark LTCCs. Due to uncertainties in model inputs at the property scale and in model simulation, the modelled LTCC should be used as a starting point for further refinement of actual property LTCC.

Dynamics of forage and land cover changes in Teltele district of Borana rangelands, southern Ethiopia: using geospatial and field survey data

BACKGROUND

The gradual conversion of rangelands into other land use types is one of the main challenges affecting the sustainable management of rangelands in Teltele. This study aimed to examine the changes, drivers, trends in land use and land cover (LULC), to determine the link between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and forage biomass and the associated impacts of forage biomass production dynamics on the Teltele rangelands in Southern Ethiopia. A Combination of remote sensing data, field interviews, discussion and observations data were used to examine the dynamics of LULC between 1992 and 2019 and forage biomass production.

RESULTS

The result indicate that there is a marked increase in farm land (35.3%), bare land (13.8%) and shrub land (4.8%), while the reduction found in grass land (54.5%), wet land (69.3%) and forest land (10.5%). The larger change in land observed in both grassland and wetland part was observed during the period from 1995-2000 and 2015-2019, this is due to climate change impact (El-Niño) happened in Teltele rangeland during the year 1999 and 2016 respectively. The quantity of forage in different land use/cover types, grass land had the highest average amount of forage biomass of 2092.3 kg/ha, followed by wetland with 1231 kg/ha, forest land with 1191.3 kg/ha, shrub land with 180 kg/ha, agricultural land with 139.5 kg/ha and bare land with 58.1 kg/ha.

CONCLUSIONS

The significant linkage observed between NDVI and LULC change types (when a high NDVI value, the LULC changes also shows positive value or an increasing trend). In addition, NDVI value directly related to the greenness status of vegetation occurred on each LULC change types and its value directly linkage forage biomass production pattern with grassland land use types. 64.8% (grass land), 43.3% (agricultural land), 75.1% (forest land), 50.6% (shrub land), 80.5% (bare land) and 75.5% (wet land) more or higher dry biomass production in the wet season compared to the dry season.

Using agricultural residues for sustainable transportation biofuels in 2050: Case of West Africa

This article focuses on the use of biomass to produce transportation fuels such as synthetic natural gas, bioethanol and electricity under a sustainable scenario in West Africa in 2050. The aim of this work was to evaluate the feasibility of producing such biofuels using agricultural residues as feedstock in the studied area. The potential of biomass from ten agricultural residues was estimated in R environment using FAO data. Options were analyzed in order to generate portfolios of transportation fuels based on energy indicators, biomass availability and scenarios of technological progress. The optimal allocation varied from one country to the other, showing a fair tradeoff between the objective functions.

Managing risks related to climate variability in rangeland-based livestock production: What producer driven strategies are shared and prevalent across diverse dryland geographies?

Rangeland-based livestock production (RBLP) primarily occurs in drylands where interannual variation in rainfall directly and indirectly affects economies, plant primary productivity (forage production), and livestock reproduction and mortality. Tight ecological and economic links to climate variation constrain production in dryland systems, but producers have a breadth of strategies to reduce climate-related risks and maintain RBLP. Research on these strategies has focused on context-specific tactics linked to specific systems and/or geographies. Inspired by studies that look for broader patterns to offer frameworks for discourse and to advance collective knowledge, we review global literature to identify risk management strategies related to climate variability that are in widespread use across dryland rangeland systems and geographies. We organize strategies within three key decision areas for producers engaged in RBLP: profit and return options, land use, and herd management. Across the decision areas, four strategies emerge as playing a strong role in risk management across the globe, with refinements based on local conditions. These shared and prevalent producer driven strategies are dynamic management of forage supply (in the decision area of land use), dynamic management of animal demand (in the area of herd management), and diversification and use of social networks (both of which apply across all three decision areas). Within each of the decision areas, we found diversification reduces climate related risks but has circumstances under which it is less effective; for example, large landholders already buffered to risk via landscape diversity benefit less from livelihood diversification. In practice, implementation of the four strategies often results in livestock producers who do not maximize short-term profits but instead prioritize land resilience, large herd sizes, lifestyle goals, and longer-term economic sustainability. In this synthesis, we considered existing producer strategies for reducing risk related to climate related variability -- an intrinsic and defining characteristic of dryland rangelands -- in order to highlight valuable areas in which research can support problem solving across diverse RBLP geographies and economies, especially in a changing climate.

The MODIS Global Vegetation Fractional Cover Product 2001–2018: Characteristics of Vegetation Fractional Cover in Grasslands and Savanna Woodlands

Vegetation Fractional Cover (VFC) is an important global indicator of land cover change, land use practice and landscape, and ecosystem function. In this study, we present the Global Vegetation Fractional Cover Product (GVFCP) and explore the levels and trends in VFC across World Grassland Type (WGT) Ecoregions considering variation associated with Global Livestock Production Systems (GLPS). Long-term average levels and trends in fractional cover of photosynthetic vegetation (FPV), non-photosynthetic vegetation (FNPV), and bare soil (FBS) are mapped, and variation among GLPS types within WGT Divisions and Ecoregions is explored. Analysis also focused on the savanna-woodland WGT Formations. Many WGT Divisions showed wide variation in long-term average VFC and trends in VFC across GLPS types. Results showed large areas of many ecoregions experiencing significant positive and negative trends in VFC. East Africa, Patagonia, and the Mitchell Grasslands of Australia exhibited large areas of negative trends in FNPV and positive trends FBS. These trends may reflect interactions between extended drought, heavy livestock utilization, expanded agriculture, and other land use changes. Compared to previous studies, explicit measurement of FNPV revealed interesting additional information about vegetation cover and trends in many ecoregions. The Australian and Global products are available via the GEOGLAM RAPP (Group on Earth Observations Global Agricultural Monitoring Rangeland and Pasture Productivity) website, and the scientific community is encouraged to utilize the data and contribute to improved validation.

Projection of Net Primary Productivity under Global Warming Scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C in Northern China Sandy Areas

Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect the net primary productivity (NPP) across sandy areas over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on NPP with global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C (GW_1.5 °C_2.0 °C) relative to pre-industrial levels. Here, we used a new set of climate simulations from four Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP 2b) datasets, modified the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford approach (CASA) model and assessed the spatio-temporal variation in NPP in sandy areas of northern China (SAONC). Compared with the reference period (RP, 1986–2005), the NPP variation under four emission scenarios showed clear rising trends and increased most significantly under RCP8.5 with an annual average increase of 2.34 g C/m2. The estimated annual NPP under global warming of 1.5 °C (GW_1.5 °C) increased by 14.17, 10.72, 8.57, and 26.68% in different emission scenarios, and under global warming of 2.0 °C (GW_2.0 °C) it increased by 20.87, 24.01, 29.31, and 39.94%, respectively. In terms of seasonal change, the NPP value under the four emission scenarios changed most significantly in the summer relative to RP, exhibiting a growth of 16.48%. Temperature changes (p > 0.614) had a greater impact on NPP growth than precipitation (p > 0.017), but solar radiation showed a certain negative impact in the middle- and low-latitude regions. NPP showed an increasing trend that changed from the southeast to the central and western regions at GW_1.5 to GW_2.0 °C. NPP was consistent with the spatial change in climate factors and had a promoting role in high latitudes in SAONC, but it was characterized by a certain inhibitory effect at middle and low latitudes in SAONC. The uncertainty of NPP under the four models ranged from 16.29 to 26.52%. Our findings suggest that the impact of GW_1.5 °C is relatively high compared with the current conditions, whereas GW_2.0 °C implies significantly lower projected NPP growth in all areas.

Challenges, solutions and research priorities for sustainable rangelands

Australia’s rangeland communities, industries, and environment are under increasing pressures from anthropogenic activities and global changes more broadly. We conducted a horizon scan to identify and prioritise key challenges facing Australian rangelands and their communities, and outline possible avenues to address these challenges, with a particular focus on research priorities. We surveyed participants of the Australian Rangeland Society 20th Biennial Conference, held in Canberra in September 2019, before the conference and in interactive workshops during the conference, in order to identify key challenges, potential solutions, and research priorities. The feedback was broadly grouped into six themes associated with supporting local communities, managing natural capital, climate variability and change, traditional knowledge, governance, and research and development. Each theme had several sub-themes and potential solutions to ensure positive, long-term outcomes for the rangelands. The survey responses made it clear that supporting ‘resilient and sustainable rangelands that provide cultural, societal, environmental and economic outcomes simultaneously’ is of great value to stakeholders. The synthesis of survey responses combined with expert knowledge highlighted that sustaining local communities in the long term will require that the inherent social, cultural and natural capital of rangelands are managed sustainably, particularly in light of current and projected variability in climate. Establishment of guidelines and approaches to address these challenges will benefit from: (i) an increased recognition of the value and contributions of traditional knowledge and practices; (ii) development of better governance that is guided by and benefits local stakeholders; and (iii) more funding to conduct and implement strong research and development activities, with research focused on addressing critical knowledge gaps as identified by the local stakeholders. This requires strong governance with legislation and policies that work for the rangelands. We provide a framework that indicates the key knowledge gaps and how innovations may be implemented and scaled out, up and deep to achieve the resilience of Australia’s rangelands. The same principles could be adapted to address challenges in rangelands on other continents, with similar beneficial outcomes.

Research on Sustainable Development in an Alpine Pastoral Area Based on Equilibrium Analysis Between the Grassland Yield, Livestock Carrying Capacity, and Animal Husbandry Population

Equilibrium of the grassland yield, livestock carrying capacity, and animal husbandry population is the key factor that influences the ecological environment and sustainable development in pastoral areas. It is of great importance to define the animal husbandry pressure and carrying capacity of an animal husbandry population for grassland management policy-making and the sustainable development of animal husbandry. As one of the areas with the most sensitive and vulnerable ecosystem in China, the Three-River Headwaters Region is an ecological barrier for the environmental security and regional sustainable development of Southeast Asian nations. It is of great significance to define the livestock carrying capacity and population pressure in the area. This research estimates the net primary productivity (NPP) of vegetation in the Three-River Headwaters Region using Carnegie-Ames-Stanford approach (CASA) model, estimates the grass yield on the basis of NPP data, and then estimates the reasonable livestock carrying capacity according to the grass yield. Meanwhile, combined with herdsmen investigation data, it establishes a quantitative relationship between the proper livestock carrying capacity and reasonable animal husbandry population. In addition, the spatial distribution of an overloading animal husbandry population is analyzed through spatial interpolation, which can provide theoretical support for the establishment of scientific ecological immigration policy and the sustainable development of local animal husbandry. The results show that (1) the total grass yield of the grassland in the Three-River Headwaters Region is 13.96 million tons, and the average grass yield is 529.87 kg/hm2, whilst the spatial distribution presents a decreasing trend from the east and southeast to the west and northwest; (2) the reasonable livestock carrying capacity is 14.03 million sheep units (hereinafter referred as “SU”), and the average livestock carrying capacity is 55.14 SU/km2; and (3) the reasonable animal husbandry population carrying capacity is 512,500 people, while the actual amount is 645,300, with 132,800 people beyond the carrying capacity, especially in Xinghai, Tongde, Zekog, Yushu, Nangqen, and Chindu County.

Changing Trends of NDVI and Their Responses to Climatic Variation in Different Types of Grassland in Inner Mongolia from 1982 to 2011

Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is commonly used to indicate vegetation density and condition. NDVI was mostly correlated with climate factors. We analyzed changing trends of NDVI in different types of grassland in Inner Mongolia and the response of NDVI to climatic variation from 1982 to 2011. NDVI of meadow steppe increased significantly in spring while it decreased in other seasons. The annual mean NDVI in typical steppe and desert steppe increased significantly in the last 30a. However, in the greatest area of steppe desert, the NDVI had no significant change in summer, autumn, and the growing season. In meadow steppe, typical steppe, and desert steppe, the area showed a positive correlation of NDVI to temperature as highest in spring compared to other seasons, because warming in spring is beneficial to the plant growth. However, in the greatest area of steppe desert, the correlation of NDVI to temperature was not significant. The NDVI was positively correlated to precipitation in four types of grassland. In the steppe desert, the precipitation had no significant effect on the NDVI due to the poor vegetation cover in this region. The NDVI was not significantly correlated to the precipitation in autumn because of vegetation withering in the season and not need precipitation. Precipitation was a more important factor rather than temperature to NDVI in the region. The response of NDVI to temperature and precipitation in different seasons should be studied in more detail and the effect of other factors on NDVI should be considered in future research.

Long Paddock: climate risk and grazing information for Australian rangelands and grazing communities

The Queensland Government’s Long Paddock website has been redeveloped on Amazon Web Services cloud computing platform, to provide Australian rangelands and grazing communities (i.e. rural landholders, managers, pastoralists (graziers), researchers, advisors, students, consultants and extension providers) with easier access to seasonal climate and pasture condition information. The website provides free, tailored information and services to support management decisions to maximise productivity, while maintaining the natural resource base. For example, historical rainfall and pasture analyses (i.e. maps, posters and data) have been developed to assist in communicating the risk of multi-year droughts that are a feature of Queensland’s highly variable climate.

Evaluating the potential financial contributions of carbon farming to grazing enterprises in Western NSW

This article reports on modelling of the farm-level financial implications of changing land use from rangelands grazing to ‘carbon farming’ (vegetation-based carbon sequestration) in north-western New South Wales, Australia. Four model farm businesses were created by combining information from existing carbon projects funded under the Australian Government’s Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF), data from surveys of farm businesses in the study regions and biomass estimations from the pasture growth model, GRASP. Scenarios for each of the businesses were: baseline (current grazing system); clearing vegetation to increase carrying capacity; establishing a carbon project; and establishing a carbon project and reinvesting some of the additional income in exclusion fencing to increase carrying capacity on non-project areas. The carbon project scenarios were based on either of two approved carbon sequestration methodologies within the ERF: avoided deforestation; and human-induced regeneration. In comparing the financial outcomes of these scenarios across the modelled businesses, we found potential advantages for landholders in having projects where livestock carrying capacity was at medium to low levels for the study region and where woody vegetation biomass potential was medium to high for the region. The case for sequestration projects on land with higher carrying capacity and therefore higher opportunity cost was much less compelling. In most cases, reinvestment in exclusion fencing resulted in similar financial returns to just having a carbon project but farm business income increased in later years.

Prediction of the livestock carrying capacity using neural network in the meadow steppe

In order to predict the livestock carrying capacity in meadow steppe, a method using back propagation neural network is proposed based on the meteorological data and the remote-sensing data of Normalised Difference Vegetation Index. In the proposed method, back propagation neural network was first utilised to build a behavioural model to forecast precipitation during the grass-growing season (June–July–August) from 1961 to 2015. Second, the relationship between precipitation and Normalised Difference Vegetation Index during the grass-growing season from 2000 to 2015 was modelled with the help of back propagation neural network. The prediction results demonstrate that the proposed back propagation neural network-based model is effective in the forecast of precipitation and Normalised Difference Vegetation Index. Thus, an accurate prediction of livestock carrying capacity is achieved based on the proposed back propagation neural network-based model. In short, this work can be used to improve the utilisation of grassland and prevent the occurrence of vegetation degradation by overgrazing in drought years for arid and semiarid grasslands.

Australian rangeland futures: time now for systemic responses to interconnected challenges

Australia’s rangelands contain wildlands, relatively intact biodiversity, widespread Indigenous cultures, pastoral and mining industries all set in past and present events and mythologies. The nature of risks and threats to these rangelands is increasingly global and systemic. Future policy frameworks must acknowledge this and act accordingly. We collate current key information on land tenures and land uses, people and domestic livestock in Australian rangelands, and discuss five perspectives on how the rangelands are changing that should inform the development of integrated policy: climate and environmental change, the southern rangelands, the northern rangelands, Indigenous Australia, and governance and management. From these perspectives we argue that more attention must be paid to: ensuring a social licence to operate across a range of uses, acknowledging and supporting a younger, more Indigenous population, implementing positive aspects of technological innovation, halting capital and governance leakages, and building human capacity. A recommended set of systemic responses should therefore (i) address governance issues consistently and comprehensively, (ii) ensure that new technologies can foster the delivery of sustainable livelihoods, and (iii) focus capacity building on a community of industries where knowledge is built for the long-term, and do all three of these with an eye to the changing demographics of the rangelands.

Beneficial land sector change in far northern Australia is required and possible – a refutation of McLean and Holmes (2019)

In a recent paper we set out a case for extending current and emerging ecosystem services enterprise opportunities to support sustainable land sector development in far northern Australia (Russell-Smith and Sangha 2018: The Rangeland Journal 40, 315–330. doi:10.1071/RJ18005). In that paper we illustrate very significant economic viability and environmental sustainability issues associated with the current dominant land use, the extensive rangeland beef cattle industry. Our beef enterprise economic assessments drew heavily on reports by Ian McLean, Phil Holmes and colleagues, as well as various other authoritative studies. In a detailed response, McLean and Holmes outline their concerns that, in various instances, we misrepresented their data and that our assessment ‘does not accurately portray the economic performance and contribution of the pastoral sector in northern Australia, nor justify the conclusion that fundamental land sector change is required’ (Comment by McLean and Holmes 2019: The Rangeland Journal, 41, 157–160. doi:10.1071/RJ18098). We acknowledge the singular contributions of those authors for our understanding of the enterprise characteristics and challenges faced by northern beef producers, but further, we: (a) for context, demonstrate the magnitude of the economic and sustainability challenges faced by the majority of northern beef producers as described in a range of pertinent studies including their own; (b) provide a detailed refutation of all eight of their listed concerns; and (c) conclude that available evidence does in fact strongly support the need for exploring diversified enterprise opportunities towards developing a sustainable and inclusive far northern land sector.

Review: Adaptation of ruminant livestock production systems to climate changes

There is growing evidence on the extent to which projected changes in climate, including increases in atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide, higher temperatures, changes in amount, seasonality and variability of precipitation and increases in extreme weather events, may affect future availability of ruminant animal products. Elements of climate change affect livestock systems through direct impacts on animal physiology, behaviour, production and welfare and indirectly through feed availability, composition and quality. These impacts may be positive or negative and will vary across geographical regions, animal species and with adaptive capacity. However, adverse impacts are likely to be greatest in tropical and sub-tropical regions including countries where both current need and future growth in demand for nutrition is greatest. The complexity of effects means that effective adaptation strategies to mitigate negative impacts on ruminant production systems to climate changes will need to be multi-dimensional. Although predictions of future climate, particularly on regional and local scales, have a degree of uncertainty, adaptation planning is starting to be informed by changes already being observed and adjustments in management being made by farmers to maintain productivity and profitability. Regional case studies illustrate the benefits and limitations of adaptive management: potential mitigation through heightened awareness of heat stress-related mortality in French cattle; evidence of a drop in milk production in south-eastern Australian dairies during a January 2014 heat wave, from the theoretical potential of 53% to only 10% across the state; and limitations in response options to climate-induced thermal, nutritional and water stress for sheep and goat farmers in northern Ethiopia. Review of research on climate change impacts on ruminant livestock and effective adaptation together with evidence of practical adaptive management provide insights into potential strategies and gaps in knowledge to address challenges and improve future decisions.

Exploring agricultural development and climate adaptation in northern Australia under climatic risks

The agriculture sector in northern Australia is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and climate variability. Climate change risks for future agricultural development include higher atmospheric temperature, increased rainfall variability and an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, heatwaves and fires. An uncertain future climate can affect agricultural production, efficient resource use and sustainable livelihoods. A balance needs to be achieved between resource use and livelihood security for sustainable agricultural development amid stressors such as climate change. This paper examines sustainable agricultural development in northern Australia using the environmental livelihood framework, a new approach that explores the relationships between water, energy and food resources and the livelihoods they sustain. The study shows that developments in the renewable energy sector, water infrastructure sector and advances in research and development for climate resilient infrastructure and climate resilient species are likely to improve agricultural production in northern Australia. Measures to attract and retain agricultural workforce is also key to maintaining a sustainable agricultural workforce in northern Australia. Adequate monitoring and evaluation of agricultural investments is important as future climatic impacts remain uncertain.

Influence of climate variability and stocking strategies on greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE), production and profit of a northern Queensland beef cattle herd

Previous studies of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) from beef production systems in northern Australia have been based on models of ‘steady-state’ herd structures that do not take into account the considerable inter-annual variation in liveweight gain, reproduction and mortality rates that occurs due to seasonal conditions. Nor do they consider the implications of flexible stocking strategies designed to adapt these production systems to the highly variable climate. The aim of the present study was to quantify the variation in total GHGE (t CO2e) and GHGE intensity (t CO2e/t liveweight sold) for the beef industry in northern Australia when variability in these factors was considered. A combined GRASP–Enterprise modelling platform was used to simulate a breeding–finishing beef cattle property in the Burdekin River region of northern Queensland, using historical climate data from 1982–2011. GHGE was calculated using the method of Australian National Greenhouse Gas Inventory. Five different stocking-rate strategies were simulated with fixed stocking strategies at moderate and high rates, and three flexible stocking strategies where the stocking rate was adjusted annually by up to 5%, 10% or 20%, according to pasture available at the end of the growing season. Variation in total annual GHGE was lowest in the ‘fixed moderate’ (~9.5 ha/adult equivalent (AE)) stocking strategy, ranging from 3799 to 4471 t CO2e, and highest in the ‘fixed high’ strategy (~5.9 ha/AE), which ranged from 3771 to 7636 t CO2e. The ‘fixed moderate’ strategy had the least variation in GHGE intensity (15.7–19.4 t CO2e/t liveweight sold), while the ‘flexible 20’ strategy (up to 20% annual change in AE) had the largest range (10.5–40.8 t CO2e/t liveweight sold). Across the five stocking strategies, the ‘fixed moderate’ stocking-rate strategy had the highest simulated perennial grass percentage and pasture growth, highest average rate of liveweight gain (121 kg/steer), highest average branding percentage (74%) and lowest average breeding-cow mortality rate (3.9%), resulting in the lowest average GHGE intensity (16.9 t CO2e/t liveweight sold). The ‘fixed high’ stocking rate strategy (~5.9 ha/AE) performed the poorest in each of these measures, while the three flexible stocking strategies were intermediate. The ‘fixed moderate’ stocking strategy also yielded the highest average gross margin per AE carried and per hectare. These results highlight the importance of considering the influence of climate variability on stocking-rate management strategies and herd performance when estimating GHGE. The results also support a body of previous work that has recommended the adoption of moderate stocking strategies to enhance the profitability and ecological stability of beef production systems in northern Australia.

Assessing the impact of historical and future climate change on potential natural vegetation types and net primary productivity in Australian grazing lands

The study investigated the impact of historical and future climate changes on potential natural vegetation (PNV) types and net primary productivity (NPP) in Australia, using the Comprehensive and Sequential Classification System model and the Miami model coupled with climate of the 1931–70 and 1971–2010 periods and the projected climate in 2050. Twenty-eight vegetation classes were classified based on the key climate indicators with four of them being the major vegetation classes corresponding to Australian rangelands and accounting for 75% of total land area. There was a substantial shift in areas of vegetation classes from the 1931–70 period to the 1971–2010 period due to the increased rainfall over large areas across Australia. The modelling projected a range of changes in vegetation classes for 2050 depending on the climate-change scenario used. Many vegetation classes with more intense land use (e.g. steppe and forest) were projected to decrease in 2050, which may have significant impact on the grazing industry and biodiversity conservation. By 2050, NPP was projected to increase in central and northern Australia and to decrease in southern and eastern coastal areas and was projected to be higher on average than that of the 1931–70 period. The vegetation classes approximately corresponding to Australian rangelands mostly had increased NPP projections compared with the 1931–70 period. Although actual response will partially depend on human management activities, fire and extreme events, the projected increase in average NPP in 2050 indicates that Australian vegetation, particularly the rangeland vegetation, will likely be a net carbon sink rather than a carbon source by 2050, with the exception of a ‘warm-dry’ scenario.

Implications of retaining woody regrowth for carbon sequestration for an extensive grazing beef business: a bio-economic modelling case study

A bio-economic modelling framework (GRASP-ENTERPRISE) was used to assess the implications of retaining woody regrowth for carbon sequestration on a case study beef grazing property in northern Australia. Five carbon farming scenarios, ranging from 0% to 100% of the property regrowth retained for carbon sequestration, were simulated over a 20-year period (1993–2012). Dedicating regrowth on the property for carbon sequestration reduced pasture (up to 40%) and herd productivity (up to 20%), and resulted in financial losses (up to 24% reduction in total gross margin). A net carbon income (income after grazing management expenses are removed) of $2–4 per t CO2-e was required to offset economic losses of retaining regrowth on a moderately productive (~8 ha adult equivalent–1) property where income was from the sale of weaners. A higher opportunity cost ($ t–1 CO2-e) of retaining woody regrowth is likely for feeder steer or finishing operations, with improved cattle prices, and where the substantial transaction and reporting costs are included. Although uncertainty remains around the price received for carbon farming activities, this study demonstrated that a conservatively stocked breeding operation can achieve positive production, environmental and economic outcomes, including net carbon stock. This study was based on a beef enterprise in central Queensland’s grazing lands, however, the approach and learnings are expected to be applicable across northern Australia where regrowth is present.

The distributions of Chinese yak breeds in response to climate change over the past 50 years

The effects of prior climate change on yak breed distributions are uncertain. Here, we measured changes in the distributions of 12 yak breeds over the past 50 years in China and examined whether the changes could be attributed to climate change. Long-term records of yak breed distribution, grey relational analysis, fuzzy sets classification techniques and attribution methods were used. Over the past 50 years, the distributions of several yak breeds have changed in multiple directions, mainly shifting northward or westward, and most of these changes are related to the thermal index. Driven by climate change over the past years, the suitable range and the distribution centers of certain yak breeds have changed with fluctuation and have mainly shifted northward, eastward or southward. The consistency of observed versus predicted changes in distribution boundaries or distribution centers is higher for certain yak breeds. Changes in the eastern distribution boundary of two yak breeds over the past 50 years can be attributed to climate change.

Testing simulations of intra- and inter-annual variation in the plant production response to elevated CO(2) against measurements from an 11-year FACE experiment on grazed pasture

Ecosystem models play a crucial role in understanding and evaluating the combined impacts of rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and changing climate on terrestrial ecosystems. However, we are not aware of any studies where the capacity of models to simulate intra- and inter-annual variation in responses to elevated CO2 has been tested against long-term experimental data. Here we tested how well the ecosystem model APSIM/AgPasture was able to simulate the results from a free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) experiment on grazed pasture. At this FACE site, during 11 years of CO2 enrichment, a wide range in annual plant production response to CO2 (-6 to +28%) was observed. As well as running the full model, which includes three plant CO2 response functions (plant photosynthesis, nitrogen (N) demand and stomatal conductance), we also tested the influence of these three functions on model predictions. Model/data comparisons showed that: (i) overall the model over-predicted the mean annual plant production response to CO2 (18.5% cf 13.1%) largely because years with small or negative responses to CO2 were not well simulated; (ii) in general seasonal and inter-annual variation in plant production responses to elevated CO2 were well represented by the model; (iii) the observed CO2 enhancement in overall mean legume content was well simulated but year-to-year variation in legume content was poorly captured by the model; (iv) the best fit of the model to the data required all three CO2 response functions to be invoked; (v) using actual legume content and reduced N fixation rate under elevated CO2 in the model provided the best fit to the experimental data. We conclude that in temperate grasslands the N dynamics (particularly the legume content and N fixation activity) play a critical role in pasture production responses to elevated CO2 , and are processes for model improvement.

EcoFire: regional-scale prescribed burning increases the annual carrying capacity of livestock on pastoral properties by reducing pasture loss from wildfire

Prescribed burning is an important management tool in the extensive pastoral lands in northern Australia. It can be used to influence grazing patterns, increase the nutritive value of pastures, reduce the density of woody shrubs and reduce the risk of damaging wildfires. The consequences of regional-scale prescribed burning on pasture availability and annual carrying capacities of pastoral properties in northern Australia were examined using EcoFire, a fire management program in the Kimberley Region of north-west Australia, as an example. Theoretical long-term carrying capacities of land systems, and fire scar imagery from years before (2004–06) and during EcoFire (2007–11) were used to model the impact of the program on the seasonality and extent of fire-induced losses in annual carrying capacity, and the likelihood of properties experiencing catastrophic losses in a given year. Over the 5 years that EcoFire has been running, it has resulted in a progressive reduction in the loss of annual carrying capacity caused by the burning of pasture, and shifted the season that annual carrying capacity is lost to fire from predominantly the late to the early dry season. Most notably, the established program has reduced the probability of experiencing catastrophic loss (defined here as >50% of annual carrying capacity removed due to fire) from 18 incidences to three incidences within a 3-year period. These outcomes have the potential to deliver economic benefits to pastoralists via increased annual carrying capacity and by improvements in pasture condition, provided stocking rates and pasture utilisation are managed carefully.

Sustainable grazing management for temporal and spatial variability in north Australian rangelands – a synthesis of the latest evidence and recommendations

Rainfall variability is a major challenge to sustainable grazing management in northern Australia, with management often complicated further by large, spatially-heterogeneous paddocks. This paper presents the latest grazing research and associated bio-economic modelling from northern Australia and assesses the extent to which current recommendations to manage for these issues are supported. Overall, stocking around the safe long-term carrying capacity will maintain land condition and maximise long-term profitability. However, stocking rates should be varied in a risk-averse manner as pasture availability varies between years. Periodic wet-season spelling is also essential to maintain pasture condition and allow recovery of overgrazed areas. Uneven grazing distributions can be partially managed through fencing, providing additional water-points and in some cases patch-burning, although the economics of infrastructure development are extremely context-dependent. Overall, complex multi-paddock grazing systems do not appear justified in northern Australia. Provided the key management principles outlined above are applied in an active, adaptive manner, acceptable economic and environmental outcomes will be achieved irrespective of the grazing system applied.

Resting pastures to improve land condition in northern Australia: guidelines based on the literature and simulation modelling

Pasture rest is a possible strategy for improving land condition in the extensive grazing lands of northern Australia. If pastures currently in poor condition could be improved, then overall animal productivity and the sustainability of grazing could be increased. The scientific literature is examined to assess the strength of the experimental information to support and guide the use of pasture rest, and simulation modelling is undertaken to extend this information to a broader range of resting practices, growing conditions and initial pasture condition. From this, guidelines are developed that can be applied in the management of northern Australia’s grazing lands and also serve as hypotheses for further field experiments. The literature on pasture rest is diverse but there is a paucity of data from much of northern Australia as most experiments have been conducted in southern and central parts of Queensland. Despite this, the limited experimental information and the results from modelling were used to formulate the following guidelines. Rest during the growing season gives the most rapid improvement in the proportion of perennial grasses in pastures; rest during the dormant winter period is ineffective in increasing perennial grasses in a pasture but may have other benefits. Appropriate stocking rates are essential to gain the greatest benefit from rest: if stocking rates are too high, then pasture rest will not lead to improvement; if stocking rates are low, pastures will tend to improve without rest. The lower the initial percentage of perennial grasses, the more frequent the rests should be to give a major improvement within a reasonable management timeframe. Conditions during the growing season also have an impact on responses with the greatest improvement likely to be in years of good growing conditions. The duration and frequency of rest periods can be combined into a single value expressed as the proportion of time during which resting occurs; when this is done the modelling suggests the greater the proportion of time that a pasture is rested, the greater is the improvement but this needs to be tested experimentally. These guidelines should assist land managers to use pasture resting but the challenge remains to integrate pasture rest with other pasture and animal management practices at the whole-property scale.

Spatial sensitivity of grassland yields to weather variations in Austria and its implications for the future

Agricultural production fulfills economic, ecological and structural functions. Despite technological advances, agricultural production remains sensitive to climate variations. In central Europe, climate change is predicted to bring more rainfall in winter, less rainfall in summer, and increased drought risk among other effects. Grassland agriculture, which is the dominant land use in Alpine regions, may be significantly affected by these climatic changes in the future. Motivated by this issue, the susceptibility of grassland yields to weather variations in Austria is empirical evaluated as a case study. The major objective of this study is to derive spatially distributed indications for climate change exposure by assessing the impacts of weather variations on past yield. It is assumed that reduced water supply during summer constitutes a threat to grassland productivity in regions that are warmer and drier already today. On the contrary, increased spring temperatures may improve grassland productivity in cooler regions like Alpine valleys, since the earlier snow melt leads to an extension of the growth period. Regression analyses are used for evaluating the relation between yearly yields and spring temperatures or water supply in summer, respectively. Water supply is thereby expressed by aggregated precipitation sums and the Climatic Water Balance (CWB). Input data are a meteorological time series as well as yearly yields available for 25 years between 1970 and 2010 and 99 districts in Austria. Yearly yields show a significant (P < 0.05) and positive dependency on water supply in summer for the eastern Austrian lowlands. The combination of temperature in spring and CWB in summer is only significant for six districts in the east of Austria. The positive impact of higher spring temperatures could not be verified. Generally, the regression coefficients are not very high, which indicates that temperature and water supply do not fully describe grassland productivity. Projected climate change may increasingly constitute a risk to yield reliability in the east of the country. That in turn, requires consideration in agricultural development plans and a quantification of these impacts from a social-economic perspective.

Adaptation to climate change--exploring the potential of locally adapted breeds

The livestock sector and agriculture as a whole face unprecedented challenges to increase production while improving the environment. On the basis of a literature review, the paper first discusses challenges related to climate change, food security and other drivers of change in livestock production. On the basis of a recent discourse in ecology, a framework for assessing livestock species' and breeds' vulnerability to climate change is presented. The second part of the paper draws on an analysis of data on breed qualities obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization's Domestic Animal Diversity Information System (DAD-IS) to explore the range of adaptation traits present in today's breed diversity. The analysis produced a first mapping of a range of ascribed adaptation traits of national breed populations. It allowed to explore what National Coordinators understand by 'locally adapted' and other terms that describe general adaptation, to better understand the habitat, fodder and temperature range of each species and to shed light on the environments in which targeted search for adaptation traits could focus.