Drought Vulnerability Assessment Using Geospatial Techniques in Southern Queensland, Australia

In Australia, droughts are recurring events that tremendously affect environmental, agricultural and socio-economic activities. Southern Queensland is one of the most drought-prone regions in Australia. Consequently, a comprehensive drought vulnerability mapping is essential to generate a drought vulnerability map that can help develop and implement drought mitigation strategies. The study aimed to prepare a comprehensive drought vulnerability map that combines drought categories using geospatial techniques and to assess the spatial extent of the vulnerability of droughts in southern Queensland. A total of 14 drought-influencing criteria were selected for three drought categories, specifically, meteorological, hydrological and agricultural. The specific criteria spatial layers were prepared and weighted using the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process. Individual categories of drought vulnerability maps were prepared from their specific indices. Finally, the overall drought vulnerability map was generated by combining the indices using spatial analysis. Results revealed that approximately 79.60% of the southern Queensland region is moderately to extremely vulnerable to drought. The findings of this study were validated successfully through the receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) and the area under the curve (AUC) approach using previous historical drought records. Results can be helpful for decision makers to develop and apply proactive drought mitigation strategies.

Assessing agricultural drought management strategies in the Northern Murray-Darling Basin

The Northern Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) is a key Australian agricultural region requiring efficient Agricultural Drought Management (ADM), focused on resilience. Although a need for resilience in local farming communities has long been recognised, previous studies assessing ADM in the Northern MDB did not consider two key elements of resilient management: proactivity (preparing for drought prior to a drought event) and suitability (localised drought management targeted at decision-makers). This study assessed the current ADM Strategy (ADMS) implemented within five selected Northern MDB Local Government Areas (LGAs) (Paroo Shire, Balonne Shire, Murweh Shire, Maranoa Region, and Goondiwindi Region), specifically investigating the extent of ADMS proactivity, effectiveness, and suitability. To investigate suitability, drought risk extent of each LGA was determined. A region-specific drought risk index consisting of hazard, vulnerability and exposure indices was developed; risk mapping was conducted. All LGAs displayed very high levels of drought risk due to hazardous climatic conditions, vulnerable socio-economic attributes, and drought-exposed geographical features. A Criteria-Based Ranking (CBR) survey produced a quantitative effectiveness and proactivity rank for each major ADMS used in the Northern MDB. Government Assistance was the most proactive and effective ADMS. Strategy effectiveness ranks of the major ADMS used and drought risk extent found in each LGA were correlated to determine ADMS suitability. Overall, Balonne Shire and the Goondiwindi Region were identified as high priority areas requiring improved ADM. A user-centred Integrated Early Warning System (I-EWS) for drought could potentially increase ADM proactivity and suitability in such areas, strengthening drought resilience of farming communities.

GrazingFutures: learnings from a contemporary collaborative extension program in rangeland communities of western Queensland, Australia

Producer reliance on drought subsidies instead of proactive planning and timely destocking in low rainfall years has prompted Queensland government investment in promoting business and drought resilience. GrazingFutures (AU$6 million budget, 2016–2022) is an extension project focussed on enhancing business management skills of extensive livestock producers in western Queensland, Australia. The region’s rangelands are in productivity decline, span 1 million km2 and are managed by graziers operating more than 2400 livestock businesses (beef, sheep and goats). The Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries delivers GrazingFutures as a component of the Drought and Climate Adaptation Program, in partnership with regional natural resource management groups and other public and private organisations. Project delivery emphasised upskilling multi-agency staff and livestock producers to promote practice change within three whole of business themes: (1) grazing land management; (2) animal production; and (3) people-business. Three independent surveys (2018, 2019, 2020) indicated positive practice change was occurring in grazing businesses as a consequence of the project. Graziers instigated management changes even under major environmental challenges including extended drought (2013–2020), an extreme flood event in 2019 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This paper details the rationale, progress against the objectives, challenges and future direction of the GrazingFutures extension project.

Vulnerability of rangeland beef cattle production to climate-induced NPP fluctuations in the US Great Plains

The vulnerability of rangeland beef cattle production to increasing climate variability in the US Great Plains has received minimal attention in spite of potentially adverse socioeconomic and ecological consequences. Vulnerability was assessed as the frequency and magnitude of years in which net primary production (NPP) deviated >±25% from mean values, to represent major forage surplus and deficit years, for a historic reference period (1981-2010), mid-century (2041-2065), and late-century (2075-2099) periods. NPP was simulated by MC2, a dynamic global vegetation model, driven by five climate projections for representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. Historically, 4-4.7 years per decade showed either NPP surpluses or deficits. The future number of extreme years increased to 5.4-6.4 and 5.9-6.9 per decade for RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, which represents an increase of 33%-56% and 38%-73%, respectively. Future simulations exhibited increases in surplus years to between 3 and 5 years in the Northern Plains and 3-3.5 in the Southern Plains. The number of deficit years remained near historic values of 2 in the Northern Plains, but increased in the Southern Plains from 2.5 to 3.3 per decade. Historically, NPP in extreme surplus and deficit years both deviated 40% from mean NPP in all three regions. The magnitude of deficit years increased by 6%-17% in future simulations for all three regions, while the magnitude of surplus years decreased 16% in the Northern Plains and increased 16% in the Southern Plains. The Southern Plains was the only region to exhibit an increase in the magnitude of both surplus and deficit years. Unprecedented future variability of NPP may surpass the existing adaptive capacity of beef producers and adversely impact the economic viability of rangeland cattle production and ecological sustainability of rangeland resources.

Building human capacity, capability and future leaders for Australia’s rangelands

Maintaining a skilled, knowledgeable and adaptable workforce in Australian rangeland enterprises and research, development and extension/adoption (RD&E/A) organisations is a varied and challenging task, compounded by trends of sustained losses of human capacity through senior retirements and short-term appointments over the last decade. Concerns for how to fill these gaps while gaining the skills and knowledge needed for a successful career and leadership roles were raised by students and young professionals in the World Cafe session and throughout Early Career workshops and activities at the 2019 Biennial Conference of the Australian Rangeland Society (ARS). This paper responds to these expressed information needs through drawing on literature, experiences shared by session participants, and existing ARS members currently working in the rangelands in diverse roles to provide insights into two main areas: (i) skills and knowledge for personal development and future success in the rangelands across three broad classes of occupation/careers (i.e. advisors, researchers, and producers), and (ii) skills and knowledge that will be expected of future leaders in the rangelands. We outline a variety of options for professional development in the early stage(s) of a career working on aspects of sustainable production systems and pathways to leadership throughout a career in the rangelands. We note the apparent lack of formal rangeland-specific education in Australia, and suggest that this is a major impediment to efforts to build skills and knowledge to ensure the viability of the livelihoods and the integrity of our rangelands. Finally, we believe that the ARS has the potential to play a more central role in inspiring interest and passion for the rangelands, in providing current information on (i) range science and management-relevant education and training opportunities in Australia and internationally, and (ii) leadership development and training opportunities; and in facilitating and supporting mentoring to develop and retain human capacity for a resilient future.

Challenges, solutions and research priorities for sustainable rangelands

Australia’s rangeland communities, industries, and environment are under increasing pressures from anthropogenic activities and global changes more broadly. We conducted a horizon scan to identify and prioritise key challenges facing Australian rangelands and their communities, and outline possible avenues to address these challenges, with a particular focus on research priorities. We surveyed participants of the Australian Rangeland Society 20th Biennial Conference, held in Canberra in September 2019, before the conference and in interactive workshops during the conference, in order to identify key challenges, potential solutions, and research priorities. The feedback was broadly grouped into six themes associated with supporting local communities, managing natural capital, climate variability and change, traditional knowledge, governance, and research and development. Each theme had several sub-themes and potential solutions to ensure positive, long-term outcomes for the rangelands. The survey responses made it clear that supporting ‘resilient and sustainable rangelands that provide cultural, societal, environmental and economic outcomes simultaneously’ is of great value to stakeholders. The synthesis of survey responses combined with expert knowledge highlighted that sustaining local communities in the long term will require that the inherent social, cultural and natural capital of rangelands are managed sustainably, particularly in light of current and projected variability in climate. Establishment of guidelines and approaches to address these challenges will benefit from: (i) an increased recognition of the value and contributions of traditional knowledge and practices; (ii) development of better governance that is guided by and benefits local stakeholders; and (iii) more funding to conduct and implement strong research and development activities, with research focused on addressing critical knowledge gaps as identified by the local stakeholders. This requires strong governance with legislation and policies that work for the rangelands. We provide a framework that indicates the key knowledge gaps and how innovations may be implemented and scaled out, up and deep to achieve the resilience of Australia’s rangelands. The same principles could be adapted to address challenges in rangelands on other continents, with similar beneficial outcomes.

A call for collaboration: linking local and non-local rangeland communities to build resilience

The people who live in Australia’s rangelands are vital for maintaining natural systems, agricultural production, infrastructure for tourism and many services and products which benefit the nation. However, the number of people living within many rangeland regions is declining, services are being withdrawn and resilience undermined. Social capital is an important concept within the resilience literature. Bonding social capital is based strong ties within relatively homogenous local groups, bridging social capital is based on ties between more diverse local groups and linking social capital is based on ties between local and external groups. Within the rangelands, there are often strong bonding and bridging social capitals based on internal social and formal connections, but gaps in linking social capital due to weak or imbalanced connections with external groups and organisations. There is evidence that all three social capitals are needed for regional resilience, and the gap in linking is thus a key issue. People who live outside the rangelands can help rebuild this resilience by linking their skills, knowledge and expertise with local groups and communities. Many city-based scientists, policy makers, influencers and other professionals work in and have empathy for the rangelands. By connecting meaningfully with local groups such as Landcare, service clubs, philanthropic groups or Indigenous Rangers, they would find many benefits to their own endeavours through improved policies, knowledge and service delivery. Central-western Queensland is provided as an example where many such mutual benefits and networks already exist, offering pathways for linking local residents with external experts. Current platforms offer opportunities for a greater range of external academic institutions and organisations to engage with locals, with everyone standing to gain.

Looking beyond the D.U.S.T. – building resilient rangeland communities

The role of towns and small business is poorly understood, yet towns are vital for the long-term viability of communities in rural and remote Australia. This case study in the central western region of Queensland (CWQ) examines the impacts of drought on rural towns and how to build a resilient regional community and alleviate hardship. Evidence was collected during drought from town businesses through surveys, interviews and a public meeting in 2017. Towns in CWQ are especially exposed to the risks of drought, as approximately half of the businesses are directly linked to agriculture. Townspeople are major contributors to social cohesion and resilience in rural and regional communities, which are often service and maintenance centres of nationally important infrastructure such as roads for inter-state freight transport and tourism. Drought and declining grazier incomes have led to reduced spending in towns. Populations have dropped sharply, as itinerant agricultural workers leave the region. The complex economic and social flow-on impacts of drought have resulted in lower socioeconomic resilience. The majority of community members interviewed expressed a desire to build secure livelihoods, which echoes other research where existing and new rangelands livelihoods are seen as contributing to the success of the nation, a common global desire. Local organisations in CWQ display innovative business and community strategies. Future actions need to support and build on these initiatives. A framework with the acronym D.U.S.T. has been developed, with associated actions aimed at building resilience in these communities. D.U.S.T. is appropriate for this often-dusty region, and stands for: D. Decide to act; U. Understand the context; S. Support and develop local capacities and institutions; and T. Transform regional governance. The key for decision-makers is to work with local people who understand the contextual complexity and local needs. Actions need to be based on principles of adaptability, equity and inclusiveness, and working with the whole of the community. Building on existing collaborations and innovations as well as transforming governance and secure funding arrangements are needed. Lessons from the communities in CWQ may help other rural and remote regions build resilience to cope with the unpredictable financial, social and environmental future.