Agriculture, population growth, and statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record

A model of long-term population growth with an application to Central West Argentina

We propose an Ideal Specialization Model to help explain the diversity of population growth trajectories exhibited across archaeological regions over thousands of years. The model provides a general set of expectations useful for guiding empirical research, and we provide a concrete example by conducting a preliminary evaluation of three expectations in Central West Argentina. We use kernel density estimates of archaeological radiocarbon, estimates of paleoclimate, and human bone stable isotopes from archaeological remains to evaluate three expectations drawn from the model's dynamics. Based on our results, we suggest that innovations in the production of food and social organization drove demographic transitions and population expansion in the region. The consistency of population expansion in the region positively associates with changes in diet and, potentially, innovations in settlement and social integration.

Landscape of fear: indirect effects of conflict can account for large-scale population declines in non-state societies

The impact of inter-group conflict on population dynamics has long been debated, especially for prehistoric and non-state societies. In this work, we consider that beyond direct battle casualties, conflicts can also create a 'landscape of fear' in which many non-combatants near theatres of conflict abandon their homes and migrate away. This process causes population decline in the abandoned regions and increased stress on local resources in better-protected areas that are targeted by refugees. By applying analytical and computational modelling, we demonstrate that these indirect effects of conflict are sufficient to produce substantial, long-term population boom-and-bust patterns in non-state societies, such as the case of Mid-Holocene Europe. We also demonstrate that greater availability of defensible locations act to protect and maintain the supply of combatants, increasing the permanence of the landscape of fear and the likelihood of endemic warfare.

Demographic models predict end-Pleistocene arrival and rapid expansion of pre-agropastoralist humans in Cyprus

The antiquity of human dispersal into Mediterranean islands and ensuing coastal adaptation have remained largely unexplored due to the prevailing assumption that the sea was a barrier to movement and that islands were hostile environments to early hunter-gatherers [J. F. Cherry, T. P. Leppard, J. Isl. Coast. Archaeol. 13, 191-205 (2018), 10.1080/15564894.2016.1276489]. Using the latest archaeological data, hindcasted climate projections, and age-structured demographic models, we demonstrate evidence for early arrival (14,257 to 13,182 calendar years ago) to Cyprus and predicted that large groups of people (~1,000 to 1,375) arrived in 2 to 3 main events occurring within <100 y to ensure low extinction risk. These results indicate that the postglacial settlement of Cyprus involved only a few large-scale, organized events requiring advanced watercraft technology. Our spatially debiased and Signor-Lipps-corrected estimates indicate rapid settlement of the island within <200 y, and expansion to a median of 4,000 to 5,000 people (0.36 to 0.46 km-2) in <11 human generations (<300 y). Our results do not support the hypothesis of inaccessible and inhospitable islands in the Mediterranean for pre-agropastoralists, agreeing with analogous conclusions for other parts of the world [M. I. Bird et al., Sci. Rep. 9, 8220 (2019), 10.1038/s41598-019-42946-9]. Our results also highlight the need to revisit these questions in the Mediterranean and test their validity with new technologies, field methods, and data. By applying stochastic models to the Mediterranean region, we can place Cyprus and large islands in general as attractive and favorable destinations for paleolithic peoples.

Frequent disturbances enhanced the resilience of past human populations

The record of past human adaptations provides crucial lessons for guiding responses to crises in the future1-3. To date, there have been no systematic global comparisons of humans' ability to absorb and recover from disturbances through time4,5. Here we synthesized resilience across a broad sample of prehistoric population time-frequency data, spanning 30,000 years of human history. Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of population decline show that frequent disturbances enhance a population's capacity to resist and recover from later downturns. Land-use patterns are important mediators of the strength of this positive association: farming and herding societies are more vulnerable but also more resilient overall. The results show that important trade-offs exist when adopting new or alternative land-use strategies.

Patrilineal segmentary systems provide a peaceful explanation for the post-Neolithic Y-chromosome bottleneck

Studies have found a pronounced decline in male effective population sizes worldwide around 3000-5000 years ago. This bottleneck was not observed for female effective population sizes, which continued to increase over time. Until now, this remarkable genetic pattern was interpreted as the result of an ancient structuring of human populations into patrilineal groups (gathering closely related males) violently competing with each other. In this scenario, violence is responsible for the repeated extinctions of patrilineal groups, leading to a significant reduction in male effective population size. Here, we propose an alternative hypothesis by modelling a segmentary patrilineal system based on anthropological literature. We show that variance in reproductive success between patrilineal groups, combined with lineal fission (i.e., the splitting of a group into two new groups of patrilineally related individuals), can lead to a substantial reduction in the male effective population size without resorting to the violence hypothesis. Thus, a peaceful explanation involving ancient changes in social structures, linked to global changes in subsistence systems, may be sufficient to explain the reported decline in Y-chromosome diversity.

The long-term expansion and recession of human populations

Over the last 12,000 y, human populations have expanded and transformed critical earth systems. Yet, a key unresolved question in the environmental and social sciences remains: Why did human populations grow and, sometimes, decline in the first place? Our research builds on 20 y of archaeological research studying the deep time dynamics of human populations to propose an explanation for the long-term growth and stability of human populations. Innovations in the productive capacity of populations fuels exponential-like growth over thousands of years; however, innovations saturate over time and, often, may leave populations vulnerable to large recessions in their well-being and population density. Empirically, we find a trade-off between changes in land use that increase the production and consumption of carbohydrates, driving repeated waves of population growth over thousands of years, and the susceptibility of populations to large recessions due to a lag in the impact of humans on resources. These results shed light on the long-term drivers of human population growth and decline.

Positive feedbacks in deep-time transitions of human populations

Abrupt and rapid changes in human societies are among the most exciting population phenomena. Human populations tend to show rapid expansions from low to high population density along with increased social complexity in just a few generations. Such demographic transitions appear as a remarkable feature of Homo sapiens population dynamics, most likely fuelled by the ability to accumulate cultural/technological innovations that actively modify their environment. We are especially interested in establishing if the demographic transitions of pre-historic populations show the same dynamic signature of the Industrial Revolution transition (a positive relationship between population growth rates and size). Our results show that population growth patterns across different pre-historic societies were similar to those observed during the Industrial Revolution in developed western societies. These features, which appear to have been operating during most of our recent demographic history from hunter-gatherers to modern industrial societies, imply that the dynamics of cooperation underlay sudden population transitions in human societies. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Agentic processes in cultural evolution: relevance to Anthropocene sustainability

Humans have evolved culturally and perhaps genetically to be unsustainable. We exhibit a deep and consistent pattern of short-term resource exploitation behaviours and institutions. We distinguish agentic and naturally selective forces in cultural evolution. Agentic forces are quite important compared to the blind forces (random variation and natural selection) in cultural evolution and gene-culture coevolution. We need to use the agentic policy-making processes to evade the impact of blind natural selection. We argue that agentic forces became important during our Pleistocene history and into the Anthropocene present. Human creativity in the form of deliberate innovations and the deliberate selective diffusion of technical and social advances drove this process forward for a long time before planetary limits became a serious issue. We review models with multiple positive feedbacks that roughly fit this observed pattern. Policy changes in the case of large-scale existential threats like climate change are made by political and diplomatic agents grasping and moving levers of institutional power in order to avoid the operation of blind natural selection and agentic forces driven by narrow or short-term goals. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

From the Ground Up: A Multidisciplinary Approach to Past Fertility and Population Narratives

Population dynamics form a crucial component of human narratives in the past. Population responses and adaptations not only tell us about the human past but also offer insights into the present and future. Though an area of substantial interest, it is also one of often limited evidence. As such, traditional techniques from demography and anthropology must be adapted considerably to accommodate the available archaeological and ethnohistoric data and an appropriate inferential framework must be applied. In this article, I propose a ground-up, multidisciplinary approach to the study of past population dynamics. Specifically, I develop an empirically informed path diagram based on modern fertility interactions and sources of past environmental, sociocultural, and biological evidence to guide high-resolution case studies. The proposed approach is dynamic and can evolve in response to data inputs as case studies are undertaken. In application, this approach will create new knowledge of past population processes which can greatly enhance our presently limited knowledge of high-frequency, small-scale demographic fluctuations, as well as contribute to our broader understanding of significant population disturbances and change throughout human history.

A new method for estimating growth and fertility rates using age-at-death ratios in small skeletal samples: The effect of mortality and stochastic variation

The common procedure for reconstructing growth and fertility rates from skeletal samples involves regressing a growth or fertility rate on the age-at-death ratio, an indicator that captures the proportion of children and juveniles in a skeletal sample. Current methods derive formulae for predicting growth and fertility rates in skeletal samples from modern reference populations with many deaths, although recent levels of mortality are not good proxies for prehistoric populations, and stochastic error may considerably affect the age distributions of deaths in small skeletal samples. This study addresses these issues and proposes a novel algorithm allowing a customized prediction formula to be produced for each target skeletal sample, which increases the accuracy of growth and fertility rate estimation. Every prediction equation is derived from a unique reference set of simulated skeletal samples that match the target skeletal sample in size and assumed mortality level of the population that the target skeletal sample represents. The mortality regimes of reference populations are based on model life tables in which life expectancy can be flexibly set between 18 and 80 years. Regression models provide a reliable prediction; the models explain 83-95% of total variance. Due to stochastic variation, the prediction error is large when the estimate is based on a small number of skeletons but decreases substantially with increasing sample size. The applicability of our approach is demonstrated by a comparison with baseline estimates, defined here as predictions based on the widely used Bocquet-Appel (2002, doi: 10.1086/342429) equation.

Population trends and the transition to agriculture: Global processes as seen from North America

Agriculture-specifically an intensification of the production of readily stored food and its distribution-has supported an increase in the global human population throughout the Holocene. Today, with greatly accelerated of growth during recent centuries, we have reached about 8 billion people. Human skeletal and archaeobotanical remains clarify what occurred over several millennia of profound societal and population change in small-scale societies once distributed across the North American midcontinent. Stepwise, not gradual, changes in the move toward an agriculturally based life, as indicated by plant remains, left a demographic signal reflecting age-independent ([Formula: see text]) mortality as estimated from skeletons. Designated the age-independent component of the Siler model, it is tracked through the juvenility index (JI), which is increasingly being used in studies of archaeological skeletons. Usually interpreted as a fertility indicator, the JI is more responsive to age-independent mortality in societies that dominated most of human existence. In the midcontinent, the JI increased as people transitioned to a more intensive form of food production that prominently featured maize. Several centuries later, the JI declined, along with a reversion to a somewhat more diverse diet and a reduction in overall population size. Changes in age-independent mortality coincided with previously recognized increases in intergroup conflict, group movement, and pathogen exposure. Similar rises and falls in JI values have been reported for other parts of the world during the emergence of agricultural systems.

What is domestication?

The nature of domestication is often misunderstood. Most definitions of the process are anthropocentric and center on human intentionality, which minimizes the role of unconscious selection and also excludes non-human domesticators. An overarching, biologically grounded definition of domestication is discussed, which emphasizes its core nature as a coevolutionary process that arises from a specialized mutualism, in which one species controls the fitness of another in order to gain resources and/or services. This inclusive definition encompasses both human-associated domestication of crop plants and livestock as well as other non-human domesticators, such as insects. It also calls into question the idea that humans are themselves domesticated, given that evolution of human traits did not arise through the control of fitness by another species.

p3k14c, a synthetic global database of archaeological radiocarbon dates

Archaeologists increasingly use large radiocarbon databases to model prehistoric human demography (also termed paleo-demography). Numerous independent projects, funded over the past decade, have assembled such databases from multiple regions of the world. These data provide unprecedented potential for comparative research on human population ecology and the evolution of social-ecological systems across the Earth. However, these databases have been developed using different sample selection criteria, which has resulted in interoperability issues for global-scale, comparative paleo-demographic research and integration with paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental data. We present a synthetic, global-scale archaeological radiocarbon database composed of 180,070 radiocarbon dates that have been cleaned according to a standardized sample selection criteria. This database increases the reusability of archaeological radiocarbon data and streamlines quality control assessments for various types of paleo-demographic research. As part of an assessment of data quality, we conduct two analyses of sampling bias in the global database at multiple scales. This database is ideal for paleo-demographic research focused on dates-as-data, bayesian modeling, or summed probability distribution methodologies.

Formal Tests for Resistance-Resilience in Archaeological Time Series

The study of resilience is a common pathway for scientific data to inform policy and practice towards impending climate change. Consequently, understanding the mechanisms and features that contribute towards building resilience is a key goal of much research on coupled socio-environmental systems. In parallel, archaeology has developed the ambition to contribute to this agenda through its unique focus on cultural dynamics that occur over the very long term. This paper argues that archaeological studies of resilience are limited in scope and potential impact by incomplete operational definitions of resilience, itself a multifaceted and contested concept. This lack of interdisciplinary engagement fundamentally limits archaeology’s ability to contribute meaningfully to understanding factors behind the emergence and maintenance of long-term societal resilience, a topic of significant interest that the field is in theory ideally positioned to address. Here, we introduce resilience metrics drawn from ecology and develop case studies to illustrate their potential utility for archaeological studies. We achieve this by extending methods for formally measuring resistance, the capacity of a system to absorb disturbances; and resilience, its capacity to recover from disturbances, with a novel significance test for palaeodemographic data. Building on statistical permutation and post-hoc tests available in the rcarbon package in the R statistical environment, we apply our adapted resilience-resistance framework to summed probability distributions of calibrated radiocarbon dates drawn from the Atlantic Forest of eastern Brazil. We deploy these methods to investigate cross-sectional trends across three recognised biogeographical zones of the Atlantic Forest domain, against the backdrop of prehistoric phases of heightened hydroclimatic variability. Our analysis uncovers novel centennial-scale spatial structure in the resilience of palaeodemographic growth rates. In addition to the case-specific findings, we suggest that adapting formal metrics can help archaeology create impact and engagement beyond relatively narrow disciplinary concerns. To this end, we supply code and data to replicate our palaeodemographic analyses to enable their use and adaptation to other archaeological problems.

Bayesian analyses question the role of climate in Chulmun demography

We investigate the relationship between climatic and demographic events in Korea during the Chulmun period (10,000-3,500 cal. BP) by analyzing paleoenvironmental proxies and 14C dates. We focus on testing whether a cooling climate, and its potential negative impact on millet productivity around the mid 5th-millennium cal. BP, triggered the population decline suggested by the archaeological record. We employ a Bayesian approach that estimates the temporal relationship between climatic events and change-points in the rate of growth in human population as inferred from radiocarbon time frequency data. Our results do not support the climate-induced population decline hypothesis for three reasons. First, our Bayesian analyses suggest that the cooling event occurred after the start of the population decline inferred from the radiocarbon time-frequency record. Second, we did not find evidence showing a significant reduction of millet-associated dates occurring during the cooling climate. Third, we detected different magnitudes of decline in the radiocarbon time-frequency data in the inland and coastal regions, indicating that the even if cooling episodes were ultimately responsible of these population 'busts', their impact was most likely distinct between these regions. We discuss our results highlighting the long tradition of mobility-based subsistence strategy in coastal regions as a potential factor contributing to the regional differences we were able to detect.

New Discoveries and Theoretical Implications for the Last Foraging and First Farming in East Asia

A brief summation of the issue’s articles is presented. This leads to a discussion of thematic issues of concepts, methods, and theory that crosscut the articles. These include use of the EnvCalc2.1 program, some issues of terminology, the theoretical approaches of niche construction as opposed to human behavioral ecology (HBE), and the linkage between technology and subsistence change, notably the difference between biface and microblade production.

An insight into understanding the coupling between homologous recombination mediated DNA repair and chromatin remodeling mechanisms in plant genome: an update

Plants, with their obligatory immobility, are vastly exposed to a wide range of environmental agents and also various endogenous processes, which frequently cause damage to DNA and impose genotoxic stress. These factors subsequently increase genome instability, thus affecting plant growth and productivity. Therefore, to survive under frequent and extreme environmental stress conditions, plants have developed highly efficient and powerful defense mechanisms to repair the damages in the genome for maintaining genome stability. Such multi-dimensional signaling response, activated in presence of damage in the DNA, is collectively known as DNA Damage Response (DDR). DDR plays a crucial role in the remarkably efficient detection, signaling, and repair of damages in the genome for maintaining plant genome stability and normal growth responses. Like other highly advanced eukaryotic systems, chromatin dynamics play a key role in regulating cell cycle progression in plants through remarkable orchestration of environmental and developmental signals. The regulation of chromatin architecture and nucleosomal organization in DDR is mainly modulated by the ATP dependent chromatin remodelers (ACRs), chromatin modifiers, and histone chaperones. ACRs are mainly responsible for transcriptional regulation of several homologous recombination (HR) repair genes in plants under genotoxic stress. The HR-based repair of DNA damage has been considered as the most error-free mechanism of repair and represents one of the essential sources of genetic diversity and new allelic combinations in plants. The initiation of DDR signaling and DNA damage repair pathway requires recruitment of epigenetic modifiers for remodeling of the damaged chromatin while accumulating evidence has shown that chromatin remodeling and DDR share part of the similar signaling pathway through the altered epigenetic status of the associated chromatin region. In this review, we have integrated information to provide an overview on the association between chromatin remodeling mediated regulation of chromatin structure stability and DDR signaling in plants, with emphasis on the scope of the utilization of the available knowledge for the improvement of plant health and productivity.Abbreviation: ADH: Alcohol Dehydrogenase; AGO2: Argonaute 2; ARP: Actin-Related Protein; ASF:1- Anti-Silencing Function-1; ATM: Ataxia Telangiectasia Mutated; ATR: ATM and Rad3- Related; AtSWI3c: Arabidopsis thaliana Switch 3c; ATXR5: Arabidopsis Trithorax-Related5; ATXR6: Arabidopsis Trithorax-Related6; BER: Base Excision Repair; BRCA1: Breast Cancer Associated 1; BRM: BRAHMA; BRU1: BRUSHY1; CAF:1- Chromatin Assembly Factor-1; CHD: Chromodomain Helicase DNA; CHR5: Chromatin Remodeling Protein 5; CHR11/17: Chromatin Remodeling Protein 11/17; CIPK11- CBL- Interacting Protein Kinase 11; CLF: Curly Leaf; CMT3: Chromomethylase 3; COR15A: Cold Regulated 15A; COR47: Cold Regulated 47; CRISPR: Clustered Regulatory Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats; DDM1: Decreased DNA Methylation1; DRR: DNA Repair and Recombination; DSBs: Double-Strand Breaks; DDR: DNA Damage Response; EXO1: Exonuclease 1; FAS1/2: Fasciata1/2; FACT: Facilitates Chromatin Transcription; FT: Flowering Locus T; GMI1: Gamma-Irradiation And Mitomycin C Induced 1; HAC1: Histone Acetyltransferase of the CBP Family 1; HAM1: Histone Acetyltransferase of the MYST Family 1; HAM2: Histone Acetyltransferase of the MYST Family 2; HAF1: Histone Acetyltransferase of the TAF Family 1; HAT: Histone Acetyl Transferase; HDA1: Histone Deacetylase 1; HDA6: Histone Deacetylase 6; HIRA: Histone Regulatory Homolog A; HR- Homologous recombination; HAS: Helicase SANT Associated; HSS: HAND-SLANT-SLIDE; ICE1: Inducer of CBF Expression 1; INO80: Inositol Requiring Mutant 80; ISW1: Imitation Switch 1; KIN1/2: Kinase 1 /2; MET1: Methyltransferase 1; MET2: Methyltransferase 2; MINU: MINUSCULE; MMS: Methyl Methane Sulfonate; MMS21: Methyl Methane Sulfonate Sensitivity 21; MRN: MRE11, RAD50 and NBS1; MSI1: Multicopy Suppressor Of Ira1; NAP1: Nucleosome Assembly Protein 1; NRP1/NRP2: NAP1-Related Protein; NER: Nucleotide Excision Repair; NHEJ: Non-Homologous End Joining; PARP1: Poly-ADP Ribose Polymerase; PIE1: Photoperiod Independent Early Flowering 1; PIKK: Phosphoinositide 3-Kinase-Like Kinase; PKL: PICKLE; PKR1/2: PICKLE Related 1/2; RAD: Radiation Sensitive Mutant; RD22: Responsive To Desiccation 22; RD29A: Responsive To Desiccation 29A; ROS: Reactive Oxygen Species; ROS1: Repressor of Silencing 1; RPA1E: Replication Protein A 1E; SANT: Swi3, Ada2, N-Cor and TFIIIB; SEP3: SEPALLATA3; SCC3: Sister Chromatid Cohesion Protein 3; SMC1: Structural Maintenance of Chromosomes Protein 1; SMC3: Structural Maintenance of Chromosomes Protein 3; SOG1: Suppressor of Gamma Response 1; SWC6: SWR1 Complex Subunit 6; SWR1: SWI2/SNF2-Related 1; SYD: SPLAYED; SMC5: Structural Maintenance of Chromosome 5; SWI/SNF: Switch/Sucrose Non-Fermentable; TALENs: Transcription Activators Like Effector Nucleases; TRRAP: Transformation/Transactivation Domain-Associated Protein; ZFNs: Zinc Finger Nucleases.

Breastfeeding and weaning in Late Holocene hunter-gatherers of the lower Paraná wetland, South America

OBJECTIVE

In this study, we analyze breastfeeding and weaning practices in pre-Columbian complex hunter-gatherers from the lower Paraná River basin (South America).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We carried out bone isotope analyses concerning δ¹³ C in collagen and apatite, the spacing between both carbon sources and δ¹⁵ N in a sample of 23 subadult and adult individuals of both sexes recovered from Late Holocene archaeological sites, ranging from 1665 ± 45 to 680 ± 80 ¹⁴ C years BP.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The results indicate that exclusive breastfeeding continued until the age of ~2 years, and weaning probably until 4 years of age. Supplementary foods included C₃ plants and probably animal fats and C₄ carbohydrates. A high fractionation of 4.9‰ in δ¹⁵ N values was recognized between breastfeeding infants and adult females, perhaps reflecting episodic hyper-protein diets in women linked to men's food provisioning during women's gestational/postpartum period. Additionally, male adults present a higher protein intake than females. Although this difference is not statistically significant with the current sample size, it could be a clue related to a sexual division in food procurement.

Stewardship of global collective behavior

Collective behavior provides a framework for understanding how the actions and properties of groups emerge from the way individuals generate and share information. In humans, information flows were initially shaped by natural selection yet are increasingly structured by emerging communication technologies. Our larger, more complex social networks now transfer high-fidelity information over vast distances at low cost. The digital age and the rise of social media have accelerated changes to our social systems, with poorly understood functional consequences. This gap in our knowledge represents a principal challenge to scientific progress, democracy, and actions to address global crises. We argue that the study of collective behavior must rise to a "crisis discipline" just as medicine, conservation, and climate science have, with a focus on providing actionable insight to policymakers and regulators for the stewardship of social systems.

A Bayesian approach for fitting and comparing demographic growth models of radiocarbon dates: A case study on the Jomon-Yayoi transition in Kyushu (Japan)

Large sets of radiocarbon dates are increasingly used as proxies for inferring past population dynamics and the last few years, in particular, saw an increase in the development of new statistical techniques to overcome some of the key challenges imposed by this kind of data. These include: 1) null hypothesis significance testing approaches based on Monte-Carlo simulations or mark permutations; 2) non-parametric Bayesian modelling approaches, and 3) the use of more traditional techniques such as correlation, regression, and AIC-based model comparison directly on the summed probability distribution of radiocarbon dates (SPD). While the range of opportunities offered by these solutions is unquestionably appealing, they often do not consider the uncertainty and the biases arising from calibration effects or sampling error. Here we introduce a novel Bayesian approach and nimbleCarbon, an R package that offers model fitting and comparison for population growth models based on the temporal frequency data of radiocarbon dates. We evaluate the robustness of the proposed approach on a range of simulated scenarios and illustrate its application on a case study focused on the demographic impact of the introduction of wet-rice farming in prehistoric Japan during the 1st millennium BCE.

Population density and size facilitate interactive capacity and the rise of the state

Radiocarbon summed probability distribution (SPD) methods promise to illuminate the role of demography in shaping prehistoric social processes, but theories linking population indices to social organization are still uncommon. Here, we develop Power Theory, a formal model of political centralization that casts population density and size as key variables modulating the interactive capacity of political agents to construct power over others. To evaluate this argument, we generated an SPD from 755 radiocarbon dates for 10 000-1000 BP from Central, North Central and North Coast Peru, a period when Peruvian political form developed from 'quasi-egalitarianism' to state levels of political centralization. These data are congruent with theoretical expectations of the model but also point to an artefactual distortion previously unremarked in SPD research. This article is part of the theme issue 'Cross-disciplinary approaches to prehistoric demography'.

Directly modelling population dynamics in the South American Arid Diagonal using 14C dates

Large anthropogenic ¹⁴C datasets are widely used to generate summed probability distributions (SPDs) as a proxy for past human population levels. However, SPDs are a poor proxy when datasets are small, bearing little relationship to true population dynamics. Instead, more robust inferences can be achieved by directly modelling the population and assessing the model likelihood given the data. We introduce the R package ADMUR which uses a continuous piecewise linear (CPL) model of population change, calculates the model likelihood given a ¹⁴C dataset, estimates credible intervals using Markov chain Monte Carlo, applies a goodness-of-fit test, and uses the Schwarz Criterion to compare CPL models. We demonstrate the efficacy of this method using toy data, showing that spurious dynamics are avoided when sample sizes are small, and true population dynamics are recovered as sample sizes increase. Finally, we use an improved ¹⁴C dataset for the South American Arid Diagonal to compare CPL modelling to current simulation methods, and identify three Holocene phases when population trajectory estimates changed from rapid initial growth of 4.15% per generation to a decline of 0.05% per generation between 10 821 and 7055 yr BP, then gently grew at 0.58% per generation until 2500 yr BP. This article is part of the theme issue 'Cross-disciplinary approaches to prehistoric demography'.

Demographic uniformitarianism: the theoretical basis of prehistoric demographic research and its cross-disciplinary challenges

A principle of demographic uniformitarianism underpins all research into prehistoric demography (palaeodemography). This principle-which argues for continuity in the evolved mechanisms underlying modern human demographic processes and their response to environmental stimuli between past and present-provides the cross-disciplinary basis for palaeodemographic reconstruction and analysis. Prompted by the recent growth and interest in the field of prehistoric demography, this paper reviews the principle of demographic uniformitarianism, evaluates how it relates to two key debates in palaeodemographic research and seeks to delimit its range of applicability to past human and hominin populations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Cross-disciplinary approaches to prehistoric demography'.

Why are population growth rate estimates of past and present hunter-gatherers so different?

Hunter-gatherer population growth rate estimates extracted from archaeological proxies and ethnographic data show remarkable differences, as archaeological estimates are orders of magnitude smaller than ethnographic and historical estimates. This could imply that prehistoric hunter-gatherers were demographically different from recent hunter-gatherers. However, we show that the resolution of archaeological human population proxies is not sufficiently high to detect actual population dynamics and growth rates that can be observed in the historical and ethnographic data. We argue that archaeological and ethnographic population growth rates measure different things; therefore, they are not directly comparable. While ethnographic growth rate estimates of hunter-gatherer populations are directly linked to underlying demographic parameters, archaeological estimates track changes in the long-term mean population size, which reflects changes in the environmental productivity that provide the ultimate constraint for forager population growth. We further argue that because of this constraining effect, hunter-gatherer populations cannot exhibit long-term growth independently of increasing environmental productivity. This article is part of the theme issue 'Cross-disciplinary approaches to prehistoric demography'.

The past, present and future of skeletal analysis in palaeodemography

The study of past population dynamics is imperative to our understanding of demographic processes in the context of biology, evolution, environment and sociocultural factors. Retrospective consideration of a population's capacity to resist and adapt to change aims to contribute insights into our past, a point of comparison to the present and predictions for the future. If these aims are to be achieved, the accuracy and precision of palaeodemographic methods are of paramount importance. This article considers the emergence of skeletally based palaeodemographic methods, specifically life tables and demographic proxies, and early controversies and issues. It details the process of methodological development and refinement, and success in addressing many of the historical limitations. The contribution and potential of skeletally based methods are discussed and comparisons and contrasts made with alternative palaeodemographic approaches, and avenues for future research are proposed. Ultimately, it is concluded that skeletal analysis provides unique opportunities to investigate population dynamics with spatial specificity, examine individuals and groups within a population, and integrate demographic and pathological information to evaluate population health in the past. This article is part of the theme issue 'Cross-disciplinary approaches to prehistoric demography'.

Female hunters of the early Americas

Sexual division of labor with females as gatherers and males as hunters is a major empirical regularity of hunter-gatherer ethnography, suggesting an ancestral behavioral pattern. We present an archeological discovery and meta-analysis that challenge the man-the-hunter hypothesis. Excavations at the Andean highland site of Wilamaya Patjxa reveal a 9000-year-old human burial (WMP6) associated with a hunting toolkit of stone projectile points and animal processing tools. Osteological, proteomic, and isotopic analyses indicate that this early hunter was a young adult female who subsisted on terrestrial plants and animals. Analysis of Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene burial practices throughout the Americas situate WMP6 as the earliest and most secure hunter burial in a sample that includes 10 other females in statistical parity with early male hunter burials. The findings are consistent with nongendered labor practices in which early hunter-gatherer females were big-game hunters.

Structural Aspects of DNA Repair and Recombination in Crop Improvement

The adverse effects of global climate change combined with an exponentially increasing human population have put substantial constraints on agriculture, accelerating efforts towards ensuring food security for a sustainable future. Conventional plant breeding and modern technologies have led to the creation of plants with better traits and higher productivity. Most crop improvement approaches (conventional breeding, genome modification, and gene editing) primarily rely on DNA repair and recombination (DRR). Studying plant DRR can provide insights into designing new strategies or improvising the present techniques for crop improvement. Even though plants have evolved specialized DRR mechanisms compared to other eukaryotes, most of our insights about plant-DRRs remain rooted in studies conducted in animals. DRR mechanisms in plants include direct repair, nucleotide excision repair (NER), base excision repair (BER), mismatch repair (MMR), non-homologous end joining (NHEJ) and homologous recombination (HR). Although each DRR pathway acts on specific DNA damage, there is crosstalk between these. Considering the importance of DRR pathways as a tool in crop improvement, this review focuses on a general description of each DRR pathway, emphasizing on the structural aspects of key DRR proteins. The review highlights the gaps in our understanding and the importance of studying plant DRR in the context of crop improvement.

A multilevel analytical framework for studying cultural evolution in prehistoric hunter-gatherer societies

Over the past decade, a major debate has taken place on the underpinnings of cultural changes in human societies. A growing array of evidence in behavioural and evolutionary biology has revealed that social connectivity among populations and within them affects, and is affected by, culture. Yet the interplay between prehistoric hunter-gatherer social structure and cultural transmission has typically been overlooked. Interestingly, the archaeological record contains large data sets, allowing us to track cultural changes over thousands of years: they thus offer a unique opportunity to shed light on long-term cultural transmission processes. In this review, we demonstrate how well-developed methods for social structure analysis can increase our understanding of the selective pressures underlying cumulative culture. We propose a multilevel analytical framework that considers finer aspects of the complex social structure in which regional groups of prehistoric hunter-gatherers were embedded. We put forward predictions of cultural transmission based on local- and global-level network metrics of small-scale societies and their potential effects on cumulative culture. By bridging the gaps between network science, palaeodemography and cultural evolution, we draw attention to the use of the archaeological record to depict patterns of social interactions and transmission variability. We argue that this new framework will contribute to improving our understanding of social interaction patterns, as well as the contexts in which cultural changes occur. Ultimately, this may provide insights into the evolution of human behaviour.

Between Foragers and Farmers: Climate Change and Human Strategies in Northwestern Patagonia

In this paper we explore how changes in human strategies are differentially modulated by climate in a border area between hunter-gatherers and farmers. We analyze multiple proxies: radiocarbon summed probability distributions (SPDs), stable C and N isotopes, and zooarchaeological data from northwestern Patagonia. Based on these proxies, we discuss aspects of human population, subsistence, and dietary dynamics in relation to long-term climatic trends marked by variation in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Our results indicate that the farming frontier in northwestern Patagonia was dynamic in both time and space. We show how changes in temperature and precipitation over the last 1000 years cal BP have influenced the use of domestic plants and the hunting of highest-ranked wild animals, whereas no significant changes in human population size occurred. During the SAM positive phase between 900 and 550 years cal BP, warmer and drier summers are associated with an increase in C4 resource consumption (maize). After 550 years cal BP, when the SAM changes to the negative phase, wetter and cooler summer conditions are related to a change in diet focused on wild resources, especially meat. Over the past 1000 years, there was a non-significant change in the population based on the SPD.

Marine resource abundance drove pre-agricultural population increase in Stone Age Scandinavia

How climate and ecology affect key cultural transformations remains debated in the context of long-term socio-cultural development because of spatially and temporally disjunct climate and archaeological records. The introduction of agriculture triggered a major population increase across Europe. However, in Southern Scandinavia it was preceded by ~500 years of sustained population growth. Here we show that this growth was driven by long-term enhanced marine production conditioned by the Holocene Thermal Maximum, a time of elevated temperature, sea level and salinity across coastal waters. We identify two periods of increased marine production across trophic levels (P1 7600–7100 and P2 6400–5900 cal. yr BP) that coincide with markedly increased mollusc collection and accumulation of shell middens, indicating greater marine resource availability. Between ~7600–5900 BP, intense exploitation of a warmer, more productive marine environment by Mesolithic hunter-gatherers drove cultural development, including maritime technological innovation, and from ca. 6400–5900 BP, underpinned a ~four-fold human population growth.

How the development of human societies is influenced through their ecological environment and climatic conditions has been the subject of intensive debate. Here, the authors present multi-proxy data from southern Scandinavia which suggests that pre-agricultural population growth there was likely influenced by enhanced marine production.

Origin of tuberculosis in the Paleolithic predicts unprecedented population growth and female resistance

Current data estimate the origin of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MtbC) infection around 73,000 years before the common era (BCE), and its evolution to “modern” lineages around 46,000 BCE. Being MtbC a major killer of humanity, the question is how both species could persist. To answer this question, we have developed two new epidemiological models (SEIR type), adapted to sex dimorphism and comparing coinfection and superinfection for different MtbC lineages. We have attributed a higher resistance/tolerance to females to explain the lower incidence noted in this sex, a better health status in the Paleolithic compared to the Neolithic, and a higher dissemination of “modern” lineages compared to “ancient” ones. Our findings show the extraordinary impact caused by “modern” lineages, provoking the extinction of the groups infected. This could only be overcomed by an unprecedented population increase (x20 times in 100 years) and helped with the protection generated by previous infection with “ancient” lineages. Our findings also suggest a key role of female resistance against MtbC. This data obliges us to rethink the growth population parameters in the Paleolithic, which is crucial to understanding the survival of both MtbC and humans, and to decipher the nature of human female resistance against TB.

Discontinuous spread of millet agriculture in eastern Asia and prehistoric population dynamics

Although broomcorn and foxtail millet are among the earliest staple crop domesticates, their spread and impacts on demography remain controversial, mainly because of the use of indirect evidence. Bayesian modeling applied to a dataset of new and published radiocarbon dates derived from domesticated millet grains suggests that after their initial cultivation in the crescent around the Bohai Sea ca. 5800 BCE, the crops spread discontinuously across eastern Asia. Our findings on the spread of millet that intensified during the fourth millennium BCE coincide with published dates of the expansion of the Sino-Tibetan languages from the Yellow River basin. In northern China, the spread of millet-based agriculture supported a quasi-exponential population growth from 6000 to 2000 BCE. While growth continued in northeastern China after 2000 BCE, the Upper/Middle Yellow River experienced decline. We propose that this pattern of regional divergence is mainly the result of internal and external anthropogenic factors.

Nicotinamide as Independent Variable for Intelligence, Fertility, and Health: Origin of Human Creative Explosions?

Meat and nicotinamide acquisition was a defining force during the 2-million-year evolution of the big brains necessary for, anatomically modern, Homo sapiens to survive. Our next move was down the food chain during the Mesolithic 'broad spectrum', then horticultural, followed by the Neolithic agricultural revolutions and progressively lower average 'doses' of nicotinamide. We speculate that a fertility crisis and population bottleneck around 40 000 years ago, at the time of the Last Glacial Maximum, was overcome by Homo (but not the Neanderthals) by concerted dietary change plus profertility genes and intense sexual selection culminating in behaviourally modern Homo sapiens. Increased reliance on the 'de novo' synthesis of nicotinamide from tryptophan conditioned the immune system to welcome symbionts, such as TB (that excrete nicotinamide), and to increase tolerance of the foetus and thereby fertility. The trade-offs during the warmer Holocene were physical and mental stunting and more infectious diseases and population booms and busts. Higher nicotinamide exposure could be responsible for recent demographic and epidemiological transitions to lower fertility and higher longevity, but with more degenerative and auto-immune disease.

Habitat suitability and the genetic structure of human populations during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in Western Europe

Human populations in Western Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum were geographically constrained to glacial refugia by the severity of the climate and ecological risk factors. In this research we use an agent-based model of human mobility and interaction, based on ethnographic and archaeological data, to explore the impact of ecological risk on human population structure via a reconstructed landscape of habitat suitability. The agent-based model allows us to evaluate the size and location of glacial refugia, the size of the populations occupying them and the degree of genetic relatedness between people occupying these areas. To do this, we model the probability of an agent foraging groups' survival as a function of habitat suitability. The model's simulated "genomes" (composed of regionally specific genetic markers) allow us to track long-term trends of inter-regional interaction and mobility. The results agree with previous archaeological studies situating a large glacial refugium spanning southern France and northeastern Spain, but we expand on those studies by demonstrating that higher rates of population growth in this central refugium led to continuous out-migration and therefore genetic homogeneity across Western Europe, with the possible exception of the Italian peninsula. These results concur with material culture data from known archaeological sites dating to the Last Glacial Maximum and make predictions for future ancient DNA studies.

Palaeodemographic modelling supports a population bottleneck during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition in Iberia

Demographic change lies at the core of debates on genetic inheritance and resilience to climate change of prehistoric hunter-gatherers. Here we analyze the radiocarbon record of Iberia to reconstruct long-term changes in population levels and test different models of demographic growth during the Last Glacial-Interglacial transition. Our best fitting demographic model is composed of three phases. First, we document a regime of exponential population increase during the Late Glacial warming period (c.16.6-12.9 kya). Second, we identify a phase of sustained population contraction and stagnation, beginning with the cold episode of the Younger Dryas and continuing through the first half of the Early Holocene (12.9-10.2 kya). Finally, we report a third phase of density-dependent logistic growth (10.2-8 kya), with rapid population increase followed by stabilization. Our results support a population bottleneck hypothesis during the Last Glacial-Interglacial transition, providing a demographic context to interpret major shifts of prehistoric genetic groups in south-west Europe.

The archaeological record provides large ensembles of radiocarbon dates which can be used to infer long-term changes in human demography. Here, the authors analyse the radiocarbon record of the Iberian peninsula, finding support for a bottleneck during the Last Glacial-Interglacial transition

A new interpretation of Madagascar's megafaunal decline: The "Subsistence Shift Hypothesis"

Fundamental disagreements remain regarding the relative importance of climate change and human activities as triggers for Madagascar's Holocene megafaunal extinction. We use stable isotope data from stalagmites from northwest Madagascar coupled with radiocarbon and butchery records from subfossil bones across the island to investigate relationships between megafaunal decline, climate change, and habitat modification. Archaeological and genetic evidence support human presence by 2000 years Before Common Era (BCE). Megafaunal decline was at first slow; it hastened at ∼700 Common Era (CE) and peaked between 750 and 850 CE, just before a dramatic vegetation transformation in the northwest that resulted in the replacement of C₃ woodland habitat with C₄ grasslands, during a period of heightened monsoonal activity. Cut and chop marks on subfossil lemur bones reveal a shift in primary hunting targets from larger, now-extinct species prior to ∼900 CE, to smaller, still-extant species afterwards. By 1050 CE, megafaunal populations had essentially collapsed. Neither the rapid megafaunal decline beginning ∼700 CE, nor the dramatic vegetation transformation in the northwest beginning ∼890 CE, was influenced by aridification. However, both roughly coincide with a major transition in human subsistence on the island from hunting/foraging to herding/farming. We offer a new hypothesis, which we call the "Subsistence Shift Hypothesis," to explain megafaunal decline and extinction in Madagascar. This hypothesis acknowledges the importance of wild-animal hunting by early hunter/foragers, but more critically highlights negative impacts of the shift from hunting/foraging to herding/farming, settlement by new immigrant groups, and the concomitant expansion of the island's human population. The interval between 700 and 900 CE, when the pace of megafaunal decline quickened and peaked, coincided with this economic transition. While early megafaunal decline through hunting may have helped to trigger the transition, there is strong evidence that the economic shift itself hastened the crash of megafaunal populations.

Do Amazon turtles exposed to environmental concentrations of the antineoplastic drug cyclophosphamide present mutagenic damages? If so, would such damages be reversible?

Antineoplastic drugs (AD) have been increasingly used, but the disposal of their wastes in the environment via hospital effluent and domestic sewage has emerged as an environmental issue. The current risks posed to these animals and effects of pollutants on the reptiles' population level remain unknown due to lack of studies on the topic. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the mutagenicity of neonate Podocnemis expansa exposed to environmental concentrations (EC) of cyclophosphamide (Cyc). The adopted doses were EC-I 0.2 μg/L and EC-II 0.5 μg/L Cyc. These doses correspond to 1/10 and ¼ of concentrations previously identified in hospital effluents. Turtles exposed to the CyC recorded larger total number of erythrocyte nuclear abnormalities than the ones in the control group after 48-h exposure. The total number of abnormalities for both groups (EC-I and EC-II) 96 h after the experiment had started was statistically similar to that of animals exposed to high Cyc concentration (positive control 5 × 10⁴ μg/L). This outcome confirms the mutagenic potential of Cyc, even at low concentrations. On the other hand, when the animals were taken to a pollutant-free environment, their mutagenic damages disappeared after 240 h. After such period, their total of abnormalities matched the basal levels recorded for the control group. Therefore, our study is the first evidence of AD mutagenicity in reptiles, even at EC and short-term exposure, as well as of turtles' recovery capability after the exposure to Cyc.

Mice exposure to haloxyfop-p-methyl ester at predicted environmentally relevant concentrations leads to anti-predatory response deficit

Although the efficiency of haloxyfop-p-methyl ester (HPME) as selective herbicide is acknowledged, its impact on non-target organisms is poorly known. It is not known whether the short exposure of mammals to low HPME concentrations (consistent with a realistic contamination scenario) poses risks to these animals. Thus, the aim of the current study is to evaluate the effects of HPME on the anti-predatory behavior of female Swiss mice exposed to it. The animals were divided in groups: non-exposed (control) and exposed (route: i.p., for 2 days) to different herbicide concentrations (2.7 × 10^-4 g/kg and 2.7 × 10^-2 g/kg of body weight), which were considered environmentally relevant predicted concentrations. The animals were subjected to the open field and elevated plus-maze tests; results showed that the HPME did not lead to anxiolytic or anxiety behavior, or to locomotive changes in the tested animals, fact that was confirmed through the Basso Mouse Scale for locomotion scores. On the other hand, animals exposed to the herbicide were incapable of recognizing the snake as potential predator. Animals in the control group, exposed to a real snake (Pantherophis guttatus) remained longer in the safety zone of the test device, presented lower frequency of self-grooming behaviors for a shorter period-of-time, besides showing longer freezing time, which was not observed in animals exposed to HPME. Therefore, our study indicates the ecotoxicological potential of the herbicide, since anti-predatory behavior disorders may affect preys' responses and population dynamics.

Synchronization of energy consumption by human societies throughout the Holocene

We conduct a global comparison of the consumption of energy by human populations throughout the Holocene and statistically quantify coincident changes in the consumption of energy over space and time-an ecological phenomenon known as synchrony. When populations synchronize, adverse changes in ecosystems and social systems may cascade from society to society. Thus, to develop policies that favor the sustained use of resources, we must understand the processes that cause the synchrony of human populations. To date, it is not clear whether human societies display long-term synchrony or, if they do, the potential causes. Our analysis begins to fill this knowledge gap by quantifying the long-term synchrony of human societies, and we hypothesize that the synchrony of human populations results from (i) the creation of social ties that couple populations over smaller scales and (ii) much larger scale, globally convergent trajectories of cultural evolution toward more energy-consuming political economies with higher carrying capacities. Our results suggest that the process of globalization is a natural consequence of evolutionary trajectories that increase the carrying capacities of human societies.

The legacy of 4,500 years of polyculture agroforestry in the eastern Amazon

The legacy of pre-Columbian land use in the Amazonian rainforest is one of the most controversial topics in the social1-10 and natural sciences11,12. Until now, the debate has been limited to discipline-specific studies, based purely on archaeological data8, modern vegetation13, modern ethnographic data3 or a limited integration of archaeological and palaeoecological data12. The lack of integrated studies to connect past land use with modern vegetation has left questions about the legacy of pre-Columbian land use on the modern vegetation composition in the Amazon, unanswered11. Here, we show that persistent anthropogenic landscapes for the past 4,500 years have had an enduring legacy on the hyperdominance of edible plants in modern forests in the eastern Amazon. We found an abrupt enrichment of edible plant species in fossil lake and terrestrial records associated with pre-Columbian occupation. Our results demonstrate that, through closed-canopy forest enrichment, limited clearing for crop cultivation and low-severity fire management, long-term food security was attained despite climate and social changes. Our results suggest that, in the eastern Amazon, the subsistence basis for the development of complex societies began ~4,500 years ago with the adoption of polyculture agroforestry, combining the cultivation of multiple annual crops with the progressive enrichment of edible forest species and the exploitation of aquatic resources. This subsistence strategy intensified with the later development of Amazonian dark earths, enabling the expansion of maize cultivation to the Belterra Plateau, providing a food production system that sustained growing human populations in the eastern Amazon. Furthermore, these millennial-scale polyculture agroforestry systems have an enduring legacy on the hyperdominance of edible plants in modern forests in the eastern Amazon. Together, our data provide a long-term example of past anthropogenic land use that can inform management and conservation efforts in modern Amazonian ecosystems.

Uncoupling human and climate drivers of late Holocene vegetation change in southern Brazil

In the highlands of southern Brazil an anthropogenitcally driven expansion of forest occurred at the expense of grasslands between 1410 and 900 cal BP, coincident with a period of demographic and cultural change in the region. Previous studies have debated the relative contributions of increasing wetter and warmer climate conditions and human landscape modifications to forest expansion, but generally lacked high resoltiuon proxies to measure these effects, or have relied on single proxies to reconstruct both climate and vegetation. Here, we develop and test a model of natural ecosystem distribution against vegetation histories, paleoclimate proxies, and the archaeological record to distinguish human from temperature and precipitation impacts on the distribution and expansion of Araucaria forests during the late Holocene. Carbon isotopes from soil profiles confirm that in spite of climatic fluctuations, vegetation was stable and forests were spatially limited to south-facing slopes in the absence of human inputs. In contrast, forest management strategies for the past 1400 years expanded this economically important forest beyond its natural geographic boundaries in areas of dense pre-Columbian occupation, suggesting that landscape modifications were linked to demographic changes, the effects of which are still visible today.

Mutagenic assessment of Lithobates catesbeianus tadpoles exposed to the 2,4-D herbicide in a simulated realistic scenario

The aim of the current study is to assess possible erythrocyte mutagenic effects on Lithobates catesbeianus tadpoles exposed to water contaminated with 2,4-D. In order to do so, tadpoles were exposed to a predictive and environmentally relevant herbicide concentration (1.97 mg/L), which is likely to be found in lentic environments formed by superficial water runoffs in pasture areas where the herbicide was applied. The micronucleus test, as well as tests for other nuclear abnormalities, was conducted after 3, 5, and 9 days of exposure (d.e.). Changes in the biomass and mouth-cloaca length or interference in the larval development of the animals (in the three evaluated times) were not recorded. However, tadpoles exposed to 2,4-D showed the highest total number of nuclear abnormalities, as well as the highest frequency of binucleated erythrocytes and kidney-shaped nuclei (shortly after 3 d.e.). The micronucleus frequency was also higher in animals exposed to 2,4-D (in the 3rd, 5th, and 9th d.e.), as well as the frequency of binucleated cells (3rd, 5th, and 9th d.e.) presenting notched (9th d.e.) and blebbled (9th d.e.) nuclei in comparison to those of the control, after 5 and 9 days of exposure. Therefore, the current study is a pioneer in showing that 2,4-D has a mutagenic effect on L. catesbeianus tadpoles, even at low concentrations (environmentally relevant) and for a short period of time, a fact that may lead to direct losses in anuran populations living in areas adjacent to those subjected to 2,4-D herbicide application.

European Neolithic societies showed early warning signals of population collapse

Ecosystems on the verge of major reorganization-regime shift-may exhibit declining resilience, which can be detected using a collection of generic statistical tests known as early warning signals (EWSs). This study explores whether EWSs anticipated human population collapse during the European Neolithic. It analyzes recent reconstructions of European Neolithic (8-4 kya) population trends that reveal regime shifts from a period of rapid growth following the introduction of agriculture to a period of instability and collapse. We find statistical support for EWSs in advance of population collapse. Seven of nine regional datasets exhibit increasing autocorrelation and variance leading up to collapse, suggesting that these societies began to recover from perturbation more slowly as resilience declined. We derive EWS statistics from a prehistoric population proxy based on summed archaeological radiocarbon date probability densities. We use simulation to validate our methods and show that sampling biases, atmospheric effects, radiocarbon calibration error, and taphonomic processes are unlikely to explain the observed EWS patterns. The implications of these results for understanding the dynamics of Neolithic ecosystems are discussed, and we present a general framework for analyzing societal regime shifts using EWS at large spatial and temporal scales. We suggest that our findings are consistent with an adaptive cycling model that highlights both the vulnerability and resilience of early European populations. We close by discussing the implications of the detection of EWS in human systems for archaeology and sustainability science.

Effects of abamectin on bullfrog tadpoles: insights on cytotoxicity

Abamectin is one of the most used pesticides worldwide. However, investigations about its effects on amphibian populations are rare. Thus, the present study sought to investigate possible cytotoxic effects on Lithobates catesbeianus tadpoles exposed to low abamectin concentrations diluted in water. Accordingly, four experimental groups were set: negative control, positive control (cyclophosphamide-40 mL L^-1), abamectin at concentrations 36 μg a.i./L (ABA36 group), and 72 μg a.i./L (ABA72 group), applied as Kraft® 36EC. The micronucleus test was conducted and other nuclear abnormalities in peripheral blood erythrocytes were checked after 24, 48, and 72 h of exposure to the treatments. The total of other nuclear abnormalities was influenced by the treatments, whereas the frequency of micronuclei was influenced by the exposure time. Such frequency was higher in the animals comprising the ABA72 group, which was assessed 72 h after the exposure had begun. The total of other nuclear abnormalities was influenced by the treatments. Animals in the positive control, ABA36, and ABA72 groups showed similar frequency of these abnormalities at 48 and 72 h. However, this frequency was statistically higher than that of animals in their respective negative control groups. Thus, the present study confirmed the hypothesis that the exposure of L. catesbeianus tadpoles to abamectin caused cytotoxic effects on them, although this exposure lasted short and the concentrations were low. It disclosed prospects for variations in the nucleus of erythrocytes circulating in amphibians, a fact that may provide an important/complementary approach for the detection of cytotoxicity caused by abamectin exposure.

Amplitude of travelling front as inferred from 14C predicts levels of genetic admixture among European early farmers

Large radiocarbon datasets have been analysed statistically to identify, on the one hand, the dynamics and tempo of dispersal processes and, on the other, demographic change. This is particularly true for the spread of farming practices in Neolithic Europe. Here we combine the two approaches and apply them to a new, extensive dataset of 14,535 radiocarbon dates for the Mesolithic and Neolithic periods across the Near East and Europe. The results indicate three distinct demographic regimes: one observed in or around the centre of farming innovation and involving a boost in carrying capacity; a second appearing in regions where Mesolithic populations were well established; and a third corresponding to large-scale migrations into previously essentially unoccupied territories, where the travelling front is readily identified. This spatio-temporal patterning linking demographic change with dispersal dynamics, as displayed in the amplitude of the travelling front, correlates and predicts levels of genetic admixture among European early farmers.

Understanding Immunity through the Lens of Disease Ecology

As we describe the immune system in ever more exquisite detail, we might find that no matter how successful, this approach will not be sufficient to understand the spread of infectious agents, their susceptibility to vaccine therapy, and human disease resistance. Compared with the strict reductionism practiced as a means of characterizing most biological processes, I propose that the progression and outcome of disease-causing host-parasite interactions will be more clearly understood through a focus on disease ecology.