Holocene peatland and ice-core data constraints on the timing and magnitude of CO2 emissions from past land use

Reconciling ice core CO2 and land-use change following New World-Old World contact

Ice core records of carbon dioxide (CO2) throughout the last 2000 years provide context for the unprecedented anthropogenic rise in atmospheric CO2 and insights into global carbon cycle dynamics. Yet the atmospheric history of CO2 remains uncertain in some time intervals. Here we present measurements of CO2 and methane (CH4) in the Skytrain ice core from 1450 to 1700 CE. Results suggest a sudden decrease in CO2 around 1610 CE in one widely used record may be an artefact of a small number of anomalously low values. Our analysis supports a more gradual decrease in CO2 of 0.5 ppm per decade from 1516 to 1670 CE, with an inferred land carbon sink of 2.6 PgC per decade. This corroborates modelled scenarios of large-scale reorganisation of land use in the Americas following New World-Old World contact, whereas a rapid decrease in CO2 at 1610 CE is incompatible with even the most extreme land-use change scenarios.

Temperature, moisture and freeze-thaw controls on CO2 production in soil incubations from northern peatlands

Peat accumulation in high latitude wetlands represents a natural long-term carbon sink, resulting from the cumulative excess of growing season net ecosystem production over non-growing season (NGS) net mineralization in soils. With high latitudes experiencing warming at a faster pace than the global average, especially during the NGS, a major concern is that enhanced mineralization of soil organic carbon will steadily increase CO2 emissions from northern peatlands. In this study, we conducted laboratory incubations with soils from boreal and temperate peatlands across Canada. Peat soils were pretreated for different soil moisture levels, and CO2 production rates were measured at 12 sequential temperatures, covering a range from - 10 to + 35 °C including one freeze-thaw event. On average, the CO2 production rates in the boreal peat samples increased more sharply with temperature than in the temperate peat samples. For same temperature, optimum soil moisture levels for CO2 production were higher in the peat samples from more flooded sites. However, standard reaction kinetics (e.g., Q10 temperature coefficient and Arrhenius equation) failed to account for the apparent lack of temperature dependence of CO2 production rates measured below 0 °C, and a sudden increase after a freezing event. Thus, we caution against using the simple kinetic expressions to represent the CO2 emissions from northern peatlands, especially regarding the long NGS period with multiple soil freeze and thaw events.

A 5,000-year vegetation and fire history for tierra firme forests in the Medio Putumayo-Algodón watersheds, northeastern Peru

This paper addresses an important debate in Amazonian studies; namely, the scale, intensity, and nature of human modification of the forests in prehistory. Phytolith and charcoal analysis of terrestrial soils underneath mature tierra firme (nonflooded, nonriverine) forests in the remote Medio Putumayo-Algodón watersheds, northeastern Peru, provide a vegetation and fire history spanning at least the past 5,000 y. A tree inventory carried out in the region enables calibration of ancient phytolith records with standing vegetation and estimates of palm species densities on the landscape through time. Phytolith records show no evidence for forest clearing or agriculture with major annual seed and root crops. Frequencies of important economic palms such as Oenocarpus, Euterpe, Bactris, and Astrocaryum spp., some of which contain hyperdominant species in the modern flora, do not increase through prehistoric time. This indicates pre-Columbian occupations, if documented in the region with future research, did not significantly increase the abundance of those species through management or cultivation. Phytoliths from other arboreal and woody species similarly reflect a stable forest structure and diversity throughout the records. Charcoal 14C dates evidence local forest burning between ca. 2,800 and 1,400 y ago. Our data support previous research indicating that considerable areas of some Amazonian tierra firme forests were not significantly impacted by human activities during the prehistoric era. Rather, it appears that over the last 5,000 y, indigenous populations in this region coexisted with, and helped maintain, large expanses of relatively unmodified forest, as they continue to do today.

A small climate-amplifying effect of climate-carbon cycle feedback

The climate-carbon cycle feedback is one of the most important climate-amplifying feedbacks of the Earth system, and is quantified as a function of carbon-concentration feedback parameter (β) and carbon-climate feedback parameter (γ). However, the global climate-amplifying effect from this feedback loop (determined by the gain factor, g) has not been quantified from observations. Here we apply a Fourier analysis-based carbon cycle feedback framework to the reconstructed records from 1850 to 2017 and 1000 to 1850 to estimate β and γ. We show that the β-feedback varies by less than 10% with an average of 3.22 ± 0.32 GtC ppm^-1 for 1880-2017, whereas the γ-feedback increases from -33 ± 14 GtC K^-1 on a decadal scale to -122 ± 60 GtC K^-1 on a centennial scale for 1000-1850. Feedback analysis further reveals that the current amplification effect from the carbon cycle feedback is small (g is 0.01 ± 0.05), which is much lower than the estimates by the advanced Earth system models (g is 0.09 ± 0.04 for the historical period and is 0.15 ± 0.08 for the RCP8.5 scenario), implying that the future allowable CO₂ emissions could be 9 ± 7% more. Therefore, our findings provide new insights about the strength of climate-carbon cycle feedback and about observational constraints on models for projecting future climate.

Approaching the potential of model-data comparisons of global land carbon storage

Carbon storage dynamics in vegetation and soil are determined by the balance of carbon influx and turnover. Estimates of these opposing fluxes differ markedly among different empirical datasets and models leading to uncertainty and divergent trends. To trace the origin of such discrepancies through time and across major biomes and climatic regions, we used a model-data fusion framework. The framework emulates carbon cycling and its component processes in a global dynamic ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, and preserves the model-simulated pools and fluxes in space and time. Thus, it allows us to replace simulated carbon influx and turnover with estimates derived from empirical data, bringing together the strength of the model in representing processes, with the richness of observational data informing the estimations. The resulting vegetation and soil carbon storage and global land carbon fluxes were compared to independent empirical datasets. Results show model-data agreement comparable to, or even better than, the agreement between independent empirical datasets. This suggests that only marginal improvement in land carbon cycle simulations can be gained from comparisons of models with current-generation datasets on vegetation and soil carbon. Consequently, we recommend that model skill should be assessed relative to reference data uncertainty in future model evaluation studies.

Influence of riverine input on the growth of Glycymeris glycymeris in the Bay of Brest, North-West France

A crossdated, replicated, chronology of 114 years (1901–2014) was developed from internal growth increments in the shells of Glycymeris glycymeris samples collected monthly from the Bay of Brest, France. Bivalve sampling was undertaken between 2014 and 2015 using a dredge. In total 401 live specimens and 243 articulated paired valves from dead specimens were collected, of which 38 individuals were used to build the chronology. Chronology strength, assessed as the Expressed Population Signal, was above 0.7 throughout, falling below the generally accepted threshold of 0.85 before 1975 because of reduced sample depth. Significant positive correlations were identified between the shell growth and the annual averages of rainfall (1975–2008; r = 0.34) and inflow from the river Elorn (1989–2009; r = 0.60). A significant negative correlation was identified between shell growth and the annual average salinity (1998–2014; r = -0.62). Analysis of the monthly averages indicates that these correlations are associated with the winter months (November–February) preceding the G. glycymeris growth season suggesting that winter conditions predispose the benthic environment for later shell growth. Concentration of suspended particulate matter within the river in February is also positively correlated with shell growth, leading to the conclusion that food availability is also important to the growth of G. glycymeris in the Bay of Brest. With the addition of principle components analysis, we were able to determine that inflow from the River Elorn, nitrite levels and salinity were the fundamental drivers of G. glycymeris growth and that these environmental parameters were all linked.

Unexpectedly large impact of forest management and grazing on global vegetation biomass

Carbon stocks in vegetation play a key role in the climate system1–4, but their magnitude and patterns, their uncertainties, and the impact of land use on them remain poorly quantified. Based on a consistent integration of state-of-the art datasets, we show that vegetation currently stores ~450 PgC. In the hypothetical absence of land use, potential vegetation would store ~916 PgC, under current climate. This difference singles out the massive effect land use has on biomass stocks. Deforestation and other land-cover changes are responsible for 53-58% of the difference between current and potential biomass stocks. Land management effects, i.e. land-use induced biomass stock changes within the same land cover, contribute 42-47% but are underappreciated in the current literature. Avoiding deforestation hence is necessary but not sufficient for climate-change mitigation. Our results imply that trade-offs exist between conserving carbon stocks on managed land and raising the contribution of biomass to raw material and energy supply for climate change mitigation. Efforts to raise biomass stocks are currently only verifiable in temperate forests, where potentials are limited. In contrast, large uncertainties hamper verification in the tropical forest where the largest potentials are located, pointing to challenges for the upcoming stocktaking exercises under the Paris agreement.