U-Th dating reveals regional-scale decline of branching Acropora corals on the Great Barrier Reef over the past century

Decadal variability and anthropogenic influence on trace element dynamics in the Bay of Bengal: Evidence from high-resolution coral records

The Bay of Bengal (BoB) exhibits dynamic trace element (TE) chemistry shaped by a complex interplay of natural processes and anthropogenic influences. Despite its significance, the temporal variability of TEs in this region is poorly understood. This study investigates decadal (2011-2022) TE dynamics by analyzing trace element-to-calcium ratios (TEs/Ca: B/Ca, Mn/Ca, Fe/Ca, Ba/Ca, P/Ca, As/Ca, Zn/Ca, Cd/Ca, and Sn/Ca) and strontium-to-calcium (Sr/Ca) ratios in modern Porites corals, supplemented by data from a sub-fossil coral as a benchmark. The results reveal distinct seasonal cycles in B/Ca, Sr/Ca, and Ba/Ca, with B/Ca and Sr/Ca being predominantly controlled by sea surface temperature (SST), while Ba/Ca variability is influenced by terrestrial inputs associated with river discharge. B/Ca has been validated as a reliable SST proxy for riverine runoff-influenced BoB. Elevated Fe/Ca, Mn/Ca, and As/Ca ratios are associated with anthropogenic activities, such as the construction of significant infrastructure projects (e.g., Padma Multipurpose Bridge, Payra Sea Port, and Matarbari Deep Sea Port) and the establishment of the Rohingya refugee camp. Additionally, increases in P/Ca, Zn/Ca, and Cd/Ca reflect intensified fertilizer use, whereas rising Sn/Ca levels suggest inputs from antifouling agents, pesticides, and tourism. Principal component analysis combined with multiple linear regression (PCA-MLR) indicates that anthropogenic activities account for approximately 70 % of the TE variability. These findings underscore the significant role of human activities in altering the TE dynamics in the BoB, providing valuable insights for coastal management and pollution mitigation strategies in similarly impacted regions worldwide.

RADReef: A global Holocene Reef Rate of Accretion Dataset

Reef cores are a powerful tool for investigating temporal changes in reef communities. Radiometric dating facilitates the determination of vertical accretion rates, which has allowed for examination of local-regional controlling factors, such as subsidence and sea level changes. Coral reefs must grow at sufficient rates to keep up with sea level rise, or risk 'drowning.' As sea level is expected to rise significantly in the next 100 years and beyond, it is important to understand whether reefs will be able to survive. Historical records of reef accretion rates extracted from cores provide valuable insights into extrinsic controlling factors of reef growth and are instrumental in helping predict if future reefs can accrete at rates needed to overcome predicted sea level changes. While extensive research exists at local and regional scales, limited attention has been given to identifying global patterns and drivers. To address this, we present "RADReef": A global dataset of dated Holocene reef cores. RADReef serves as a foundation for further research on past, present and future reef accretion.

Influence of global warming and industrialization on coral reefs: A 600-year record of elemental changes in the Eastern Red Sea

The Red Sea has been recognized as a coral reef refugia, but it is vulnerable to warming and pollution. Here we investigated the spatial and temporal trends of 15 element concentrations in 9 coral reef sediment cores (aged from the 1460s to the 1980s AD) to study the influence of global warming and industrialization on the Eastern Red Sea coral reefs. We found Na, Ca, Cr, Fe, Co, Ni, and Sr concentrations were higher in the northern Red Sea (i.e., Yanbu), whereas Mg, P, S, Mn, and Cd concentrations were higher in the southern Red Sea (i.e., Thuwal & Al Lith) reef sediments. In the central (i.e., Thuwal) to southern (i.e., Al Lith) Red Sea, the study revealed diverse temporal trends in element concentrations. However, both reef sedimentation rates (-36.4 % and -80.5 %, respectively) and elemental accumulation rates (-49.4 % for Cd to -12.2 % for Zn in Thuwal, and -86.2 % for Co to -61.4 % for Cu in Al Lith) exhibited a declining pattern over time, possibly attributed to warming-induced thermal bleaching. In the central to northern Red Sea (i.e., Yanbu), the severity of thermal bleaching is low, while the reef sedimentation rates (187 %), element concentrations (6.7 % for S to 764 % for Co; except Na, Mg, Ca, Sr, and Cd), and all elemental accumulation rates (190 % for Mg to 2697 % for Co) exponentially increased from the 1970s, probably due the rapid industrialization in Yanbu. Our study also observed increased trace metal concentrations (e.g., Cu, Zn, and Ni) in the Thuwal and Al Lith coral reefs with severe bleaching histories, consistent with previous reports that trace metals might result in decreased resistance of corals to thermal stress under warming scenarios. Our study points to the urgent need to reduce the local discharge of trace metal pollutants to protect this biodiversity hotspot.

Marine conservation palaeobiology: What does the late Quaternary fossil record tell us about modern-day extinctions and biodiversity threats?

Near-time conservation palaeobiology uses palaeontological, archaeological and other geohistorical records to study the late Quaternary transition of the biosphere from its pristine past to its present-day, human-altered state. Given the scarcity of data on recent extinctions in the oceans, geohistorical records are critical for documenting human-driven extinctions and extinction threats in the marine realm. The historical perspective can provide two key insights. First, geohistorical records archive the state of pre-industrial oceans at local, regional and global scales, thus enabling the detection of recent extinctions and extirpations as well as shifts in species distribution, abundance, body size and ecosystem function. Second, we can untangle the contributions of natural and anthropogenic processes by documenting centennial-to-millennial changes in the composition and diversity of marine ecosystems before and after the onset of major human impacts. This long-term perspective identifies recently emerging patterns and processes that are unprecedented, thus allowing us to better assess human threats to marine biodiversity. Although global-scale extinctions are not well documented for brackish and marine invertebrates, geohistorical studies point to numerous extirpations, declines in ecosystem functions, increases in range fragmentation and dwindling abundance of previously widespread species, indicating that marine ecosystems are accumulating a human-driven extinction debt.

Historical declines in parrotfish on Belizean coral reefs linked to shifts in reef exploitation following European colonization

Humans have utilized the Mesoamerican Reef (MAR) for millennia but the effects of prehistorical and historical fishing on this ecosystem remain understudied. To assess the long-term coupling of reef ecosystem and human dynamics in this region, we tracked trends in the structure and functioning of lagoonal reefs within the Belizean portion of the MAR using fish teeth fossils and sediment accumulation rates within reef sediment cores. We then paired this with a timeline of demographic and cultural changes in this region’s human populations. The ∼1,300-year timeline encompassed in the core record shows that declines in the relative abundance and accumulation rate of teeth from parrotfish, a key reef herbivore, occurred at all three reef sites and began between ∼1500 and 1800 AD depending on site and metric of abundance. A causality analysis showed that parrotfish relative abundance had a positive causal effect on reef accretion rates, a proxy of coral growth, reconfirming the important role of these fish in reef ecosystem functioning. The timing of initial declines in parrotfish teeth occurred during a time of relatively low human population density in Belize. However, declines were synchronous with cultural and demographic upheaval resulting from European colonization of the New World. The more recent declines at these sites (∼1800 AD) occurred in tandem with increased subsistence fishing on reefs by multiple immigrant groups, a pattern that was likely necessitated by the establishment of an import economy controlled by a small group of land-owning European elites. These long-term trends from the paleoecological record reveal that current parrotfish abundances in central Belize are well below their pre-European contact peaks and that increased fishing pressure on parrotfish post-contact has likely caused a decline in reef accretion rates. The origins of reef degradation in the Belizean portion of the MAR began hundreds of years before the onset of modern declines resulting from the combined effects of local human disturbances and climate change.

Unraveling Moreton Bay reef history: An urban high-latitude setting for coral development

High-latitude habitats have become increasingly recognized as a potential climate refuge for coral communities, supporting both tropical and sub-tropical corals. Despite the increasing interest in the ecology of high-latitude corals, our current knowledge of their temporal dynamics is limited, especially within urbanized settings. Here, we examined the entire history of a high-latitude coral reef ecosystem in an urbanized setting. We surveyed Holocene fossil and modern coral communities along a water quality gradient in Moreton Bay, southeast Queensland, Australia, representing near-river (Wellington Point), intermediate (Peel Island) and near-oceanic (Myora Reef) environmental conditions. Reef accretion occurred during three discrete episodes from 7,400 to 5,800, 4,900 to 3,000, and 2,100 to 300 years BP, each separated by roughly 1,000-year hiatuses, where conditions were probably not favorable enough for reef accretion to occur. Episodic reef initiation and termination suggests strong environmental controls over reef development. Eastern Australian Holocene reef growth and cessation has been linked previously to sea level fluctuations and climatic regimes (e.g., ENSO). Within each reef building episode, there were few changes in coral assemblages over time. The fast growing and branching Acropora had a relative abundance greater than 90% in ten of the 13 sediment cores and all the submerged terrace excavations. However, substantial modification of adjacent coastal catchments from European colonization in the mid 1800’s resulted in increased sediment and nutrient discharge into the bay. This perturbation coincided with a greater abundance of stress-tolerant coral species (e.g., Dipsastraea, Goniastrea, and Goniopora) and the near extirpation of Acropora in the modern coral communities of near-river and intermediate sites due to poor water quality. In contrast, the modern coral assemblage at the near-oceanic site (Myora Reef) continues to be dominated by Acropora, likely due to the consistent oceanic input, resulting in lower sediment loading and higher water quality. In order for conditions for reef growth to improve, especially within the near-river portions of the bay, further sediment and nutrient runoff from anthropogenic land-use changes need to be mitigated. Given the historical abundance of Acropora, we recommend this genus be used as an indicator of natural resource management success in the bay.

The war of corals: patterns, drivers and implications of changing coral competitive performances across reef environments

Amidst global environmental changes, predicting species' responses to future environments is a critical challenge for preserving biodiversity and associated human benefits. We explored the original idea that coral competitive performances, the ability of corals to preempt ecological space on the reef through territorial warfare, serve as indicators of species' ecological niches and environmental windows, and therefore, responses to future environments. Our surveys indicated that coral performances varied with taxonomic identity, size and position along environmental gradients, highlighting complex interplays between life-history, warfare-strategy and niche segregation. Our results forewarn that growing alterations of coastal environments may trigger shifts in coral dominance, with the decline of major reef-building taxa like acroporids, and emphasize the importance of limiting human impacts for coastal resilience. Our empirical approach untangles the complexity of species' battle-like interactions and can help identify winners and losers in various communities caught in the interplay between ecological niches, environmental windows and global changes.

Light availability regulated by particulate organic matter affects coral assemblages on a turbid fringing reef

Recently, increasing evidence suggests that reef-building corals exposed to elevated suspended solids (SS) are largely structured by changes in underwater light availability (ULA). However, there are few direct and quantitative observations in situ support for this hypothesis; in particular, the contribution of SS to the diffuse attenuation coefficient of the photosynthetically active radiation (K_d-PAR) variations is not yet fully understood. Here, we investigated the variations in ULA, the structure of coral assemblages, and the concentration and composition of SS on the Luhuitou fringing reef, Sanya, China. Light attenuation was rapid (K_d-PAR: 0.60 ± 0.39 m^-1) resulting in a shallow euphotic depth (Z_eu-PAR) (<11 m). Benthic PAR showed significant positive correlations with branching and corymbose corals (e.g. Acropora spp.), while massive and encrusting species (e.g. Porites spp.) dominated the coral communities and showed no significant correlations with PAR. These results indicate that the depth range available for coral growth is shallow and the tolerance to low-light stress differs among coral species. Notably, K_d-PAR showed no significant correlations with the grain size fractions of SS, whereas significant positive correlations were found with its organic fraction content, demonstrating that the light attenuation of SS is mainly regulated by particulate organic matter (POM). Intriguingly, our isotopic evidence revealed that POM concentration contributed the most to changes in K_d-PAR, with its source being slightly less important. Combined, our results highlight ULA regulated by POM is an important factor in contributing to changes in coral assemblages on inshore turbid reefs, and reducing the input of terrestrial materials, especially POM, is an effective measure to alleviate the low-light stress on sensitive coral species.

Uranium-thorium dating of coral mortality and community shift in a highly disturbed inshore reef (Weizhou Island, northern South China Sea)

Inshore coral habitats are at high risk of loss due to a combination of climate warming and regional-scale human impacts. As a result, they have undergone significant declines. Direct evidence of acute and chronic disturbance on most inshore coral assemblages is limited. Long-term, periodical surveys and historical baseline data essential for effective management are lacking. Using high-precision uranium-thorium (UTh) dating, we reconstruct a ~100-year-long history of extensive coral loss, changes in coral community structure, and a shifting baseline. The data were collected at Weizhou Island, northern South China Sea (SCS), which has highly disturbed inshore coral habitats that are typical globally. According to our UTh dates, major coral mortalities around Weizhou Island have occurred since the 1950s, with increasing frequency and severity since the 1980s. The extensive loss of branching Acropora and collapse of coral communities with peaks around 1960, 1984, and 1998 are accompanied by a shift toward low coral cover and noncoral-dominated assemblages. Prior to this collapse, the local coral community structure sustained remarkable long-term stability over millennia. The timing of the Acropora loss and massive coral mortalities coincides with multiple acute and chronic, natural and anthropogenic disturbance events. We suggest that priority should be given to directly addressing the causes of degradation and effectively controlling chronic disturbances before attempting to restore reef ecosystems. This is probably the only way to solve the "wicked problem" of sustaining the key functions and ecosystem services of inshore coral habitats such as those of Weizhou Island, northern SCS.

Coral reef diversity losses in China's Greater Bay Area were driven by regional stressors

Observations of coral reef losses to climate change far exceed our understanding of historical degradation before anthropogenic warming. This is a critical gap to fill as conservation efforts simultaneously work to reverse climate change while restoring coral reef diversity and function. Here, we focused on southern China's Greater Bay Area, where coral communities persist despite centuries of coral mining, fishing, dredging, development, and pollution. We compared subfossil assemblages with modern-day communities and revealed a 40% decrease in generic diversity, concomitant to a shift from competitive to stress-tolerant species dominance since the mid-Holocene. Regions with characteristically poor water quality-high chl-a, dissolved inorganic nitrogen, and turbidity-had lower contemporary diversity and the greatest community composition shift observed in the past, driven by the near extirpation of Acropora These observations highlight the urgent need to mitigate local stressors from development in concert with curbing greenhouse gas emissions.

Coral Gardens Reef, Belize: A refugium in the face of Caribbean-wide Acropora spp. coral decline

Caribbean Acropora spp. corals have undergone a decline in cover since the second half of the twentieth century. Loss of these architecturally complex and fast-growing corals has resulted in significant, cascading changes to the character, diversity, and available eco-spaces of Caribbean reefs. Few thriving Acropora spp. populations exist today in the Caribbean and western North Atlantic seas, and our limited ability to access data from reefs assessed via long-term monitoring efforts means that reef scientists are challenged to determine resilience and longevity of existing Acropora spp. reefs. Here we used multiple dating methods to measure reef longevity and determine whether Coral Gardens Reef, Belize, is a refuge for Acropora cervicornis against the backdrop of wider Caribbean decline. We used a new genetic-aging technique to identify sample sites, and radiocarbon and high-precision uranium-thorium (U-Th) dating techniques to test whether one of the largest populations of extant A. cervicornis in the western Caribbean is newly established after the 1980s, or represents a longer-lived, stable population. We did so with respect for ethical sampling of a threatened species. Our data show corals ranging in age from 1910 (14C) or 1915 (230Th) to at least November 2019. While we cannot exclude the possibility of short gaps in the residence of A. cervicornis earlier in the record, the data show consistent and sustained living coral throughout the 1980s and up to at least 2019. We suggest that Coral Gardens has served as a refuge for A. cervicornis and that identifying other, similar sites may be critical to efforts to grow, preserve, conserve, and seed besieged Caribbean reefs.

Projections of coral cover and habitat change on turbid reefs under future sea-level rise

Global sea-level rise (SLR) is projected to increase water depths above coral reefs. Although the impacts of climate disturbance events on coral cover and three-dimensional complexity are well documented, knowledge of how higher sea levels will influence future reef habitat extent and bioconstruction is limited. Here, we use 31 reef cores, coupled with detailed benthic ecological data, from turbid reefs on the central Great Barrier Reef, Australia, to model broad-scale changes in reef habitat following adjustments to reef geomorphology under different SLR scenarios. Model outputs show that modest increases in relative water depth above reefs (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5) over the next 100 years will increase the spatial extent of habitats with low coral cover and generic diversity. More severe SLR (RCP8.5) will completely submerge reef flats and move reef slope coral communities below the euphotic depth, despite the high vertical accretion rates that characterize these reefs. Our findings suggest adverse future trajectories associated with high emission climate scenarios which could threaten turbid reefs globally and their capacity to act as coral refugia from climate change.

Broadening the taxonomic scope of coral reef palaeoecological studies using ancient DNA

Marine environments face acute pressures from human impacts, often resulting in substantial changes in community structure. On the inshore Great Barrier Reef (GBR), palaeoecological studies show the collapse of the previously dominant coral Acropora from the impacts of degraded water quality associated with European colonization. Even more dramatic impacts can result in the replacement of corals by fleshy macroalgae on modern reefs, but their past distribution is unknown because they leave no fossil record. Here, we apply DNA metabarcoding and high-throughput sequencing of the 18S rDNA gene on palaeoenvironmental DNA (aeDNA) derived from sediment cores at two sites on Pandora Reef (GBR), to enhance palaeoecological studies by incorporating key soft-bodied taxa, including macroalgae. We compared temporal trends in this aeDNA record with those of coral genera derived from macrofossils. Multivariate analysis of 12 eukaryotic groups from the aeDNA community showed wide variability over the past 750 years. The occurrence of brown macroalgae was negatively correlated only with the dominant coral at both sites. The occurrence of coralline and green macroalgae was positively correlated with only the dominant coral at one of the sites, where we also observed a significant association between the whole coral community and the occurrence of each of the three macroalgae groups. Our results demonstrate that reef sediments can provide a valuable archive for understanding the past distribution and occurrence of important soft-bodied reef dwellers. Combining information from fossils and aeDNA provides an enhanced understanding of temporal changes of reefs ecosystems at decadal to millennial timescales.

Water quality mediates resilience on the Great Barrier Reef

Threats from climate change and other human pressures have led to widespread concern for the future of Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Resilience of GBR reefs will be determined by their ability to resist disturbances and to recover from coral loss, generating intense interest in management actions that can moderate these processes. Here we quantify the effect of environmental and human drivers on the resilience of southern and central GBR reefs over the past two decades. Using a composite water quality index, we find that while reefs exposed to poor water quality are more resistant to coral bleaching, they recover from disturbance more slowly and are more susceptible to outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish and coral disease-with a net negative impact on recovery and long-term hard coral cover. Given these conditions, we find that 6-17% improvement in water quality will be necessary to bring recovery rates in line with projected increases in coral bleaching among contemporary inshore and mid-shelf reefs. However, such reductions are unlikely to buffer projected bleaching effects among outer-shelf GBR reefs dominated by fast-growing, thermally sensitive corals, demonstrating practical limits to local management of the GBR against the effects of global warming.

Insights into the history and timing of post-European land use disturbance on sedimentation rates in catchments draining to the Great Barrier Reef

Sediment runoff has been cited as a major contributor to the declining health of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), however, climate and land use drivers have not been jointly evaluated. This study used alluvial archives from fluvial benches in two tributaries of the Upper Burdekin catchment together with the best available land use history and climate proxy records to provide insights into the timing of depositional events in this region over the past 500 years. This study suggests that mining and the increased runoff variability in the latter half of the nineteenth century are the likely sources of the original excess sediment that was used to build the bench features in these catchments. Grazing also contributed to increased bench sedimentation prior to 1900, however, the contribution of grazing was likely more significant in the second half of the 20th century, and continues to be a dominant land use contributor today.

Vulnerability of the Great Barrier Reef to climate change and local pressures

Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is under pressure from a suite of stressors including cyclones, crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS), nutrients from river run-off and warming events that drive mass coral bleaching. Two key questions are: how vulnerable will the GBR be to future environmental scenarios, and to what extent can local management actions lower vulnerability in the face of climate change? To address these questions, we use a simple empirical and mechanistic coral model to explore six scenarios that represent plausible combinations of climate change projections (from four Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs), cyclones and local stressors. Projections (2017-2050) indicate significant potential for coral recovery in the near-term, relative to current state, followed by climate-driven decline. Under a scenario of unmitigated emissions (RCP8.5) and business-as-usual management of local stressors, mean coral cover on the GBR is predicted to recover over the next decade and then rapidly decline to only 3% by year 2050. In contrast, a scenario of strong carbon mitigation (RCP2.6) and improved water quality, predicts significant coral recovery over the next two decades, followed by a relatively modest climate-driven decline that sustained coral cover above 26% by 2050. In an analysis of the impacts of cumulative stressors on coral cover relative to potential coral cover in the absence of such impacts, we found that GBR-wide reef performance will decline 27%-74% depending on the scenario. Up to 66% of performance loss is attributable to local stressors. The potential for management to reduce vulnerability, measured here as the mean number of years coral cover can be kept above 30%, is spatially variable. Management strategies that alleviate cumulative impacts have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of some midshelf reefs in the central GBR by 83%, but only if combined with strong mitigation of carbon emissions.