Climate vulnerability and resilience in the most valuable North American fishery

Neuropeptidomics of the American Lobster Homarus americanus

The American lobster, Homarus americanus, is not only of considerable economic importance but has also emerged as a premier model organism in neuroscience research. Neuropeptides, an important class of cell-to-cell signaling molecules, play crucial roles in a wide array of physiological and psychological processes. Leveraging the recently sequenced high-quality draft genome of the American lobster, our study sought to profile the neuropeptidome of this model organism. Employing advanced mass spectrometry techniques, we identified 24 neuropeptide precursors and 101 unique mature neuropeptides in Homarus americanus. Intriguingly, 67 of these neuropeptides were discovered for the first time. Our findings provide a comprehensive overview of the peptidomic attributes of the lobster's nervous system and highlight the tissue-specific distribution of these neuropeptides. Collectively, this research not only enriches our understanding of the neuronal complexities of the American lobster but also lays a foundation for future investigations into the functional roles that these peptides play in crustacean species. The mass spectrometry data have been deposited in the PRIDE repository with the identifier PXD047230.

Warming and hypoxia reduce the performance and survival of northern bay scallops (Argopecten irradians irradians) amid a fishery collapse

Warming temperatures and diminishing dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations are among the most pervasive drivers of global coastal change. While regions of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean are experiencing greater than average warming, the combined effects of thermal and hypoxic stress on marine life in this region are poorly understood. Populations of the northern bay scallop, Argopecten irradians irradians across the northeast United States have experienced severe declines in recent decades. This study used a combination of high-resolution (~1 km) satellite-based temperature records, long-term temperature and DO records, field and laboratory experiments, and high-frequency measures of scallop cardiac activity in an ecosystem setting to quantify decadal summer warming and assess the vulnerability of northern bay scallops to thermal and hypoxic stress across their geographic distribution. From 2003 to 2020, significant summer warming (up to ~0.2°C year^-1 ) occurred across most of the bay scallop range. At a New York field site in 2020, all individuals perished during an 8-day estuarine heatwave that coincided with severe diel-cycling hypoxia. Yet at a Massachusetts site with comparable DO levels but lower daily mean temperatures, mortality was not observed. A 96-h laboratory experiment recreating observed daily temperatures of 25 or 29°C, and normoxia or hypoxia (22.2% air saturation), revealed a 120-fold increased likelihood of mortality in the 29°C-hypoxic treatment compared with control conditions, with scallop clearance rates also reduced by 97%. Cardiac activity measurements during a field deployment indicated that low DO and elevated daily temperatures modulate oxygen consumption rates and likely impact aerobic scope. Collectively, these findings suggest that concomitant thermal and hypoxic stress can have detrimental effects on scallop physiology and survival and potentially disrupt entire fisheries. Recovery of hypoxic systems may benefit vulnerable fisheries under continued warming.

Protection from fishing improves body growth of an exploited species

Hunting and fishing are often size-selective, which favours slow body growth. In addition, fast growth rate has been shown to be positively correlated with behavioural traits that increase encounter rates and catchability in passive fishing gears such as baited traps. This harvest-induced selection should be effectively eliminated in no-take marine-protected areas (MPAs) unless strong density dependence results in reduced growth rates. We compared body growth of European lobster ( Homarus gammarus ) between three MPAs and three fished areas. After 14 years of protection from intensive, size-selective lobster fisheries, the densities in MPAs have increased considerably, and we demonstrate that females moult more frequently and grow more during each moult in the MPAs. A similar, but weaker pattern was evident for males. This study suggests that MPAs can shield a wild population from slow-growth selection, which can explain the rapid recovery of size structure following implementation. If slow-growth selection is a widespread phenomenon in fisheries, the effectiveness of MPAs as a management tool can be higher than currently anticipated.

The diadromous watersheds-ocean continuum: Managing diadromous fish as a community for ecosystem resilience

Diadromous fishes play important ecological roles by delivering ecosystem services and making crucial connections along the watersheds-ocean continuum. However, it is difficult to fully understand the community-level impacts and cumulative benefits of diadromous fish migrations, as these species are most often considered individually or in small groups. Their interactions at a community level (e.g., interdependencies such as predation, co-migration, and habitat conditioning) and the connections between their ecosystem roles and functions (e.g., cumulative marine-derived nutrient contributions, impacts on stream geomorphology) are yet to be fully understood. Similarly, freshwater, estuarine, and marine ecosystems are often considered as independent parts, limiting understanding of the importance of connections across systems. We argue that not considering the ecosystem interdependence and importance of diadromous fish as a community currently hinders the implementation of the large-scale management required to increase ecosystem resilience and fish productivity across the full range of these species. We developed a conceptual model, the Diadromous Watersheds-Ocean Continuum (DWOC), that uses ecosystem services to promote a more holistic approach to the management of the diadromous community and encourages an integrated understanding of the ecosystem connections made by these species. DWOC provides a framework for discussions that can help identify research and management needs, discuss the trade-offs of different management options, and analyze what pressing questions impede the implementation of large-scale management solutions toward a more ecosystem-based management approach.

Global seasonal forecasts of marine heatwaves

Marine heatwaves (MHWs)—periods of exceptionally warm ocean temperature lasting weeks to years—are now widely recognized for their capacity to disrupt marine ecosystems^1–3. The substantial ecological and socioeconomic impacts of these extreme events present significant challenges to marine resource managers^4–7, who would benefit from forewarning of MHWs to facilitate proactive decision-making^8–11. However, despite extensive research into the physical drivers of MHWs^11,12, there has been no comprehensive global assessment of our ability to predict these events. Here we use a large multimodel ensemble of global climate forecasts^13,14 to develop and assess MHW forecasts that cover the world’s oceans with lead times of up to a year. Using 30 years of retrospective forecasts, we show that the onset, intensity and duration of MHWs are often predictable, with skilful forecasts possible from 1 to 12 months in advance depending on region, season and the state of large-scale climate modes, such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. We discuss considerations for setting decision thresholds based on the probability that a MHW will occur, empowering stakeholders to take appropriate actions based on their risk profile. These results highlight the potential for operational MHW forecasts, analogous to forecasts of extreme weather phenomena, to promote climate resilience in global marine ecosystems.

Climate forecast systems are used to develop and evaluate global predictions of marine heatwaves (MHWs), highlighting the feasibility of predicting MHWs and providing a foundation for operational MHW forecasts to support climate adaptation and resilience.

Engineering A Low-Cost Kelp Aquaculture System for Community-Scale Seaweed Farming at Nearshore Exposed Sites via User-Focused Design Process

For over 50 years, government fishery agencies have recognized the need to transition excess fishing capacity in coastal waters to aquaculture. For the most part, investment strategies to move wild capture and harvest efforts into aquaculture have failed since the technology and capital expense for entry, such as large fish pens, was not conducive for acceptance. In contrast, low trophic level aquaculture of shellfish and seaweeds is suitable as an addition to the livelihoods of seasonal fishing communities and to those displaced by fishery closures, especially if vessels and gear can be designed around existing fishing infrastructures, thus allowing fishers to maintain engagement with their primary fishery, while augmenting income via aquaculture. In this study, an inexpensive, lightweight, and highly mobile gear for kelp seaweed farming was developed and tested over a 3-year period in southern Maine, USA. The system was different from existing kelp farming operations used in nearshore waters that use low-scope mooring lines, and heavy, deadweight anchors. Instead, a highly mobile, easy to deploy system using lightweight gear was designed for exposed conditions. The entire system fit into fish tote boxes and was loadable onto a standard pickup truck. The seaweed system had small but efficient horizontal drag embedment anchors connected to a chain catenary and pretensioned with simple subsurface flotation. The system was able to be deployed and removed in less than 4 h by a crew of three using a 10 m vessel and produced a harvest of 12.7 kg/m over an 8-month fall-winter growth period. The target group for this seaweed research and development effort were coastal fishing communities who move seasonally into non-fishing occupations in service industries, such as construction, retail, etc. An economic assessment suggests farmers would realize an 8% return on investment after3 years and $13.50/h greater income as compared to a non-farming off season job at minimum wage. This low-cost seaweed farming system for fall-winter operations fits well into a “livelihood” strategy for fishing families who must work multiple jobs in the offseason when their main fishery is unavailable.

How do human actions affect fisheries? Differences in perceptions between fishers and scientists in the Maine lobster fishery

The degree to which human actions affect marine fisheries has been a fundamental question shaping people’s relationship with the sea. Today, divergences in stakeholder views about the impacts of human activities such as fishing, climate change, pollution, and resource management can hinder effective co-management and adaptation. Here, we used surveys to construct mental models of the Maine lobster fishery, identifying divergent views held by two key stakeholder groups: lobster fishers and marine scientists. The two groups were differentiated by their perceptions of the relative impact of pollution, water temperature, and fishing. Notably, many fishers perceive the process of fishing to have a positive effect on fisheries through the input of bait. Scientists exhibited a statistically significantly stronger concern for climate change and identified CO2 as one of the dominant pollutants in the Gulf of Maine. However, fishers and scientists agreed that management has a positive impact, which appeared to be a change over the past two decades, possibly due to increased collaboration between the two groups. This work contributes to the goal of decreasing the distance between stakeholder perspectives in the context of a co-managed fishery as well as understanding broader perceptions of impacts of human activities on marine ecosystems.

Modelling ocean acidification effects with life stage-specific responses alters spatiotemporal patterns of catch and revenues of American lobster, Homarus americanus

Ocean acidification (OA) affects marine organisms through various physiological and biological processes, yet our understanding of how these translate to large-scale population effects remains limited. Here, we integrated laboratory-based experimental results on the life history and physiological responses to OA of the American lobster, Homarus americanus, into a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model to project future climate change effects on species distribution, abundance, and fisheries catch potential. Ocean acidification effects on juvenile stages had the largest stage-specific impacts on the population, while cumulative effects across life stages significantly exerted the greatest impacts, albeit quite minimal. Reducing fishing pressure leads to overall increases in population abundance while setting minimum size limits also results in more higher-priced market-sized lobsters (> 1 lb), and could help mitigate the negative impacts of OA and concurrent stressors (warming, deoxygenation). However, the magnitude of increased effects of climate change overweighs any moderate population gains made by changes in fishing pressure and size limits, reinforcing that reducing greenhouse gas emissions is most pressing and that climate-adaptive fisheries management is necessary as a secondary role to ensure population resiliency. We suggest possible strategies to mitigate impacts by preserving important population demographics.

Contrasted patterns in climate change risk for Mediterranean fisheries

Climate change is rapidly becoming one of the biggest threats to marine life, and its impacts have the potential to strongly affect fisheries upon which millions of people rely. This is particularly crucial for the Mediterranean Sea, which is one of the world's biodiversity hotspots, one of the world's most overfished regions, and where temperatures are rising 25% faster than in the rest of the ocean on average. In this study, we calculated a vulnerability index for 100 species that compose 95% of the Mediterranean catches, through a trait-based approach. The Climate Risk Assessment (CRA) methodology was subsequently used to assess the risks due to climate change of Mediterranean fisheries. We found that the northern Mediterranean fisheries target more vulnerable species than their southern counterparts. However, when combining this catch-based vulnerability with a suite of socio-economic parameters, north African countries stand out as the most vulnerable to climate change impacts. Indeed, considering countries' exposure of the fisheries sector and their vulnerability to climate change, a sharp contrast between northern and southern Mediterranean appears, with Egypt and Tunisia scoring the highest risk. By integrating a trait-based approach on targeted marine species with socio-economic features, our analysis helps to better understand the ramifications of climate change consequences on Mediterranean fisheries and highlights the regions that could potentially be particularly affected.

Socioeconomic impacts of marine heatwaves: Global issues and opportunities

[Figure: see text].

Coping with stress in a warming Gulf: the postlarval American lobster's cellular stress response under future warming scenarios

The Gulf of the Maine (GoM) is one of the fastest warming bodies of water in the world, posing serious physiological challenges to its marine inhabitants. Marine organisms can cope with the cellular and molecular stresses created by climate change through changes in gene expression. We used transcriptomics to examine how exposure to current summer temperatures (16 °C) or temperature regimes reflective of projected moderate and severe warming conditions (18 °C and 22 °C, respectively) during larval development alters expression of transcripts affiliated with the cellular stress response (CSR) in postlarval American lobsters (Homarus americanus). We identified 26 significantly differentially expressed (DE) transcripts annotated to CSR proteins. Specifically, transcripts for proteins affiliated with heat shock, the ubiquitin family, DNA repair, and apoptosis were significantly over-expressed in lobsters reared at higher temperatures relative to current conditions. Substantial variation in the CSR expression between postlarvae reared at 18 °C and those reared at 22 °C suggests that postlarvae reared under severe warming may have a hindered ability to cope with the physiological and molecular challenges of ocean warming. These results highlight that postlarval American lobsters may experience significant heat stress as rapid warming in the GoM continues, potentially compromising their ability to prevent cellular damage and inhibiting the reallocation of cellular energy towards other physiological functions beyond activation of the CSR. Moreover, this study establishes additional American lobster stress markers and addresses various knowledge gaps in crustacean biology, where sufficient 'omics research is lacking.

The American lobster genome reveals insights on longevity, neural, and immune adaptations

The American lobster, Homarus americanus, is integral to marine ecosystems and supports an important commercial fishery. This iconic species also serves as a valuable model for deciphering neural networks controlling rhythmic motor patterns and olfaction. Here, we report a high-quality draft assembly of the H. americanus genome with 25,284 predicted gene models. Analysis of the neural gene complement revealed extraordinary development of the chemosensory machinery, including a profound diversification of ligand-gated ion channels and secretory molecules. The discovery of a novel class of chimeric receptors coupling pattern recognition and neurotransmitter binding suggests a deep integration between the neural and immune systems. A robust repertoire of genes involved in innate immunity, genome stability, cell survival, chemical defense, and cuticle formation represents a diversity of defense mechanisms essential to thrive in the benthic marine environment. Together, these unique evolutionary adaptations contribute to the longevity and ecological success of this long-lived benthic predator.

Synergistic effects of harvest and climate drive synchronous somatic growth within key New Zealand fisheries

Fisheries harvest has pervasive impacts on wild fish populations, including the truncation of size and age structures, altered population dynamics and density, and modified habitat and assemblage composition. Understanding the degree to which harvest-induced impacts increase the sensitivity of individuals, populations and ultimately species to environmental change is essential to ensuring sustainable fisheries management in a rapidly changing world. Here we generated multiple long-term (44-62 years), annually resolved, somatic growth chronologies of four commercially important fishes from New Zealand's coastal and shelf waters. We used these novel data to investigate how regional- and basin-scale environmental variability, in concert with fishing activity, affected individual somatic growth rates and the magnitude of spatial synchrony among stocks. Changes in somatic growth can affect individual fitness and a range of population and fishery metrics such as recruitment success, maturation schedules and stock biomass. Across all species, individual growth benefited from a fishing-induced release of density controls. For nearshore snapper and tarakihi, regional-scale wind and temperature also additively affected growth, indicating that future climate change-induced warming and potentially strengthened winds will initially promote the productivity of more poleward populations. Fishing increased the sensitivity of deep-water hoki and ling growth to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). A forecast shift to a positive IPO phase, in concert with current harvest strategies, will likely promote individual hoki and ling growth. At the species level, historical fishing practices and IPO synergized to strengthen spatial synchrony in average growth between stocks separated by 400-600 nm of ocean. Increased spatial synchrony can, however, increase the vulnerability of stocks to deleterious stochastic events. Together, our individual- and species-level results show how fishing and environmental factors can conflate to initially promote individual growth but then possibly heighten the sensitivity of stocks to environmental change.

A review of the combined effects of climate change and other local human stressors on the marine environment

Climate change (CC) is a key, global driver of change of marine ecosystems. At local and regional scales, other local human stressors (LS) can interact with CC and modify its effects on marine ecosystems. Understanding the response of the marine environment to the combined effects of CC and LS is crucial to inform marine ecosystem-based management and planning, yet our knowledge of the potential effects of such interactions is fragmented. At a global scale, we explored how cumulative effect assessments (CEAs) have addressed CC in the marine realm and discuss progress and shortcomings of current approaches. For this we conducted a systematic review on how CEAs investigated at different levels of biological organization ecological responses, functional aspects, and the combined effect of CC and HS. Globally, the effects of 52 LS and of 27 CC-related stressors on the marine environment have been studied in combination, such as industrial fisheries with change in temperature, or sea level rise with artisanal fisheries, marine litter, change in sediment load and introduced alien species. CC generally intensified the effects of LS at species level. At trophic groups and ecosystem levels, the effects of CC either intensified or mitigated the effects of other HS depending on the trophic groups or the environmental conditions involved, thus suggesting that the combined effects of CC and LS are context-dependent and vary among and within ecosystems. Our results highlight that large-scale assessments on the spatial interaction and combined effects of CC and LS remain limited. More importantly, our results strengthen the urgent need of CEAs to capture local-scale effects of stressors that can exacerbate climate-induced changes. Ultimately, this will allow identifying management measures that aid counteracting CC effects at relevant scales.

American lobster postlarvae alter gene regulation in response to ocean warming and acidification

Anthropogenic carbon emissions released into the atmosphere is driving rapid, concurrent increases in temperature and acidity across the world's oceans. Disentangling the interactive effects of warming and acidification on vulnerable life stages is important to our understanding of responses of marine species to climate change. This study evaluates the interactive effects of these stressors on the acute response of gene expression of postlarval American lobster (Homarus americanus), a species whose geographic range is warming and acidifying faster than most of the world's oceans. In the context of our experiment, we found two especially noteworthy results: First, although physiological end points have consistently been shown to be more responsive to warming in similar experimental designs, our study found gene regulation to be considerably more responsive to elevated pCO2. Furthermore, the combined effect of both stressors on gene regulation was significantly greater than either stressor alone. Using a full factorial experimental design, lobsters were raised in control and elevated pCO2 concentrations (400 ppm and 1,200 ppm) and temperatures (16°C and 19°C). A transcriptome was assembled from an identified 414,517 unique transcripts. Overall, 1,108 transcripts were differentially expressed across treatments, several of which were related to stress response and shell formation. When temperature alone was elevated (19°C), larvae downregulated genes related to cuticle development; when pCO2 alone was elevated (1,200 ppm), larvae upregulated chitinase as well as genes related to stress response and immune function. The joint effects of end-century stressors (19°C, 1,200 ppm) resulted in the upregulation of those same genes, as well as cellulase, the downregulation of calcified cuticle proteins, and a greater upregulation of genes related to immune response and function. These results indicate that changes in gene expression in larval lobster provide a mechanism to respond to stressors resulting from a rapidly changing environment.

Social relationship dynamics mediate climate impacts on income inequality: evidence from the Mexican Humboldt squid fishery

Small-scale fisheries are critically important for livelihoods around the world, particularly in tropical regions. However, climate variability and anthropogenic climate change may seriously impact small-scale fisheries by altering the abundance and distribution of target species. Social relationships between fishery users, such as fish traders, can determine how each individual responds and is affected by changes in fisheries. These informal cooperative and competitive relationships provide access, support, and incentives for fishing and affect the distribution of benefits. Yet, individuals' actions and impacts on individuals are often the primary focus of the economic analyses informing small-scale fisheries' formal management. This focus dismisses relevant social relationships. We argue that this leads to a disconnect between reality and its model representation used in formal management, which may reduce formal fisheries management's efficiency and efficacy and potentially trigger adverse consequences. Here, we examine this argument by comparing the predictions of a simple bioeconomic fishery model with those of a social-ecological model that incorporates the dynamics of cooperative relationships between fish traders. We illustrate model outcomes using an empirical case study in the Mexican Humboldt squid fishery. We find that (1) the social-ecological model with relationship dynamics substantially improves accuracy in predicting observed fishery variables to the simple bioeconomic model. (2) Income inequality outcomes are associated with changes in cooperative trade relationships. When environmental temperature is included in the model as a driver of species production dynamics, we find that climate-driven temperature variability drives a decline in catch that, in turn, reduce fishers' income. We observe an offset of this loss in income by including cooperative relationships between fish traders (oligopoly) in the model. These relationships break down following species distribution changes and result in an increase in prices fishers receive. Finally, (3) our social-ecological model simulations show that the current fishery development program, which seeks to increase fishers' income through an increase in domestic market demand, is supported by predictions from the simple bioeconomic model, may increase income inequality between fishers and traders. Our findings highlight the real and urgent need to re-think fisheries management models in the context of small-scale fisheries and climate change worldwide to encompass social relationship dynamics.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at (10.1007/s10113-021-01747-5).

Comparing and synthesizing quantitative distribution models and qualitative vulnerability assessments to project marine species distributions under climate change

Species distribution shifts are a widely reported biological consequence of climate-driven warming across marine ecosystems, creating ecological and social challenges. To meet these challenges and inform management decisions, we need accurate projections of species distributions. Quantitative species distribution models (SDMs) are routinely used to make these projections, while qualitative climate change vulnerability assessments are becoming more common. We constructed SDMs, compared SDM projections to expectations from a qualitative expert climate change vulnerability assessment, and developed a novel approach for combining the two methods to project the distribution and relative biomass of 49 marine species in the Northeast Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem under a “business as usual” climate change scenario. A forecasting experiment using SDMs highlighted their ability to capture relative biomass patterns fairly well (mean Pearson’s correlation coefficient between predicted and observed biomass = 0.24, range = 0–0.6) and pointed to areas needing improvement, including reducing prediction error and better capturing fine-scale spatial variability. SDM projections suggest the region will undergo considerable biological changes, especially in the Gulf of Maine, where commercially-important groundfish and traditional forage species are expected to decline as coastal fish species and warmer-water forage species historically found in the southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Bight area increase. The SDM projections only occasionally aligned with vulnerability assessment expectations, with agreement more common for species with adult mobility and population growth rates that showed low sensitivity to climate change. Although our blended approach tried to build from the strengths of each method, it had no noticeable improvement in predictive ability over SDMs. This work rigorously evaluates the predictive ability of SDMs, quantifies expected species distribution shifts under future climate conditions, and tests a new approach for integrating SDMs and vulnerability assessments to help address the complex challenges arising from climate-driven species distribution shifts.

Environment outweighs the effects of fishing in regulating demersal community structure in an exploited marine ecosystem

Global climate change has already caused bottom temperatures of coastal marine ecosystems to increase worldwide. These ecosystems face many pressures, of which fishing is one of the most important. While consequences of global warming on commercial species are studied extensively, the importance of the increase in bottom temperature and of variation in fishing effort is more rarely considered together in these exploited ecosystems. Using a 17 year time series from an international bottom trawl survey, we investigated covariations of an entire demersal ecosystem (101 taxa) with the environment in the Celtic Sea. Our results showed that over the past two decades, biotic communities in the Celtic Sea were likely controlled more by environmental variables than fisheries, probably due to its long history of exploitation. At the scale of the entire zone, relations between taxa and the environment remained stable over the years, but at a local scale, in the center of the Celtic Sea, dynamics were probably driven by interannual variation in temperature. Fishing was an important factor structuring species assemblages at the beginning of the time series (2000) but decreased in importance after 2009. This was most likely caused by a change in spatial distribution of fishing effort, following a change in targeted taxa from nephrops to deeper water anglerfish that did not covary with fishing effort. Increasing bottom temperatures could induce additional changes in the coming years, notably in the cold-water commercial species cod, hake, nephrops, and American plaice. We showed that analyzing covariation is an effective way to screen a large number of taxa and highlight those that may be most susceptible to future simultaneous increases in temperature and changes in exploitation pattern by fisheries. This information can be particularly relevant for ecosystem assessments.

Density-dependent growth in 'catch-and-wait' fisheries has implications for fisheries management and Marine Protected Areas

Stock enhancement activities provide an opportunity to examine density-dependent suppression of population biomass which is a fundamental issue for resource management and design of no-take-zones. We document 'catch-and-wait' fisheries enhancement where all but the largest lobsters are thrown back, recapturing them later after they have grown to a larger size. The residency, rate of return, and potential negative density-dependent effects of this activity are described using a combination of tagging and v-notching and by relating spatial growth patterns to population density defined with Catch Per Unit Effort. The results successfully demonstrated the concept of catch-and-wait practices. However, a density-dependent suppression of growth (in body size) was observed in male lobsters. This demonstrates a mechanism to explain differences in lobster sizes previously observed across EU fishing grounds with different stock densities. This negative effect of density could also affect individual biomass production in marine reserve or no-take zones.

Views from the dock: Warming waters, adaptation, and the future of Maine's lobster fishery

The ability of resource-dependent communities to adapt to climate change depends in part on their perceptions and prioritization of specific climate-related threats. In the Maine lobster fishery, which is highly vulnerable to warming water associated with climate change, we found a strong majority (84%) of fishers viewed warming water as a threat, but rank its impacts lower than other drivers of change (e.g., pollution). Two-thirds believed they will be personally affected by warming waters, but only half had plans to adapt. Those with adaptation plans demonstrated fundamentally different views of human agency in this system, observing greater anthropogenic threats, but also a greater ability to control the fishery through their own actions on the water and fisheries management processes. Lack of adaptation planning was linked to the view that warming waters result from natural cycles, and the expectation that technological advancements will help buffer the industry from warming waters.

Climate variability reduces employment in New England fisheries

Beyond their value as a natural resource, marine fisheries employ an estimated 18.4 million commercial harvesters worldwide. Previous research describes how climate change can affect fish populations, but how it will impact fishing employment and communities is not yet understood. New England, which employs 34,000 commercial harvesters, has a well-documented management history and some of the world’s fastest-warming waters. This paper provides empirical evidence that fluctuations in a regional climate index reduced county-level fishing employment in New England by an average of 16% between 1996 and 2017. The findings cannot be extrapolated to other regions without further study, but they demonstrate how climate can be linked to fishing employment at a regional level via a biophysical pathway.

Climate change is already affecting fish productivity and distributions worldwide, yet its impact on fishing labor has not been examined. Here I directly link large-scale climate variability with fishery employment by studying the effects of sea-surface pressure changes in the North Atlantic region, whose waters are among the world’s fastest warming. I find that climate shocks reduce not only regional catch and revenue in the New England fishing sector, but also ultimately county-level wages and employment among commercial harvesters. Each SD increase from the climatic mean decreases county-level fishing employment by 13%, on average. The South Atlantic region serves as a control due to its different ecological response to climate. Overall, I estimate that climate variability from 1996 to 2017 is responsible for a 16% (95% CI: 10% to 22%) decline in county-level fishing employment in New England, beyond the changes in employment attributable to management or other factors. This quantitative evidence linking climate variability and fishing labor has important implications for management in New England, which employs 20% of US commercial harvesters. Because the results are mediated by the local biology and institutions, they cannot be directly extrapolated to other regions. But they show that climate can impact fishing outcomes in ways unaccounted by management and offer a template for study of this relationship in fisheries around the world.

The cresting wave: larval settlement and ocean temperatures predict change in the American lobster harvest

Adding to the challenge of predicting fishery recruitment in a changing environment is downscaling predictions to capture locally divergent trends over a species' range. In recent decades, the American lobster (Homarus americanus) fishery has shifted poleward along the northwest Atlantic coast, one of the most rapidly warming regions of the world's oceans. Building on evidence that early post-settlement life stages predict future fishery recruitment, we describe enhancements to a forecasting model that predict landings using an annual larval settlement index from 62 fixed sites among 10 study areas from Rhode Island, USA to New Brunswick, Canada. The model is novel because it incorporates local bottom temperature and disease prevalence to scale spatial and temporal changes in growth and mortality. For nine of these areas, adding environmental predictors significantly improved model performance, capturing a landings surge in the eastern Gulf of Maine, and collapse in southern New England. On the strength of these analyses, we project landings within the next decade to decline to near historical levels in the Gulf of Maine and no recovery in the south. This approach is timely as downscaled ocean temperature projections enable decision makers to assess their options under future climate scenarios at finer spatial scales.

The brighter side of climate change: How local oceanography amplified a lobster boom in the Gulf of Maine

Ocean warming can drive poleward shifts of commercially important species with potentially significant economic impacts. Nowhere are those impacts greater than in the Gulf of Maine where North America's most valuable marine species, the American lobster (Homarus americanus Milne Edwards), has thrived for decades. However, there are growing concerns that regional maritime economies will suffer as monitored shallow water young-of-year lobsters decline and landings shift to the northeast. We examine how the interplay of ocean warming, tidal mixing, and larval behavior results in a brighter side of climate change. Since the 1980s lobster stocks have increased fivefold. We suggest that this increase resulted from a complex interplay between lobster larvae settlement behavior, climate change, and local oceanographic conditions. Specifically, postlarval sounding behavior is confined to a thermal envelope above 12°C and below 20°C. Summer thermally stratified surface waters in southwestern regions have historically been well within the settlement thermal envelope. Although surface layers are warming fastest in this region, the steep depth-wise temperature gradient caused thermally suitable areas for larval settlement to expand only modestly. This contrasts with the northeast where strong tidal mixing prevents thermal stratification and recent ocean warming has made an expansive area of seabed more favorable for larval settlement. Recent declines in lobster settlement densities observed at shallow monitoring sites correlate with the expanded area of thermally suitable habitat associated with warmer summers. This leads us to hypothesize that the expanded area of suitable habitat may help explain strong lobster population increases in this region over the last decade and offset potential future declines. It also suggests that the fate of fisheries in a changing climate requires understanding local interaction between life stage-specific biological thresholds and finer scale oceanographic processes.

Gross and histopathologic diagnoses from North Atlantic right whale Eubalaena glacialis mortalities between 2003 and 2018

Seventy mortalities of North Atlantic right whales Eubalaena glacialis (NARW) were documented between 2003 and 2018 from Florida, USA, to the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada. These included 29 adults, 14 juveniles, 10 calves, and 17 of unknown age class. Females represented 65.5% (19/29) of known-sex adults. Fourteen cases had photos only; 56 carcasses received external examinations, 44 of which were also necropsied. Cause of death was determined in 43 cases, of which 38 (88.4%) were due to anthropogenic trauma: 22 (57.9%) from entanglement, and 16 (42.1%) from vessel strike. Gross and histopathologic lesions associated with entanglement were often severe and included deep lacerations caused by constricting line wraps around the flippers, flukes, and head/mouth; baleen plate mutilation; chronic extensive bone lesions from impinging line, and traumatic scoliosis resulting in compromised mobility in a calf. Chronically entangled whales were often in poor body condition and had increased cyamid burden, reflecting compromised health. Vessel strike blunt force injuries included skull and vertebral fractures, blubber and muscle contusions, and large blood clots. Propeller-induced wounds often caused extensive damage to blubber, muscle, viscera, and bone. Overall prevalence of NARW entanglement mortalities increased from 21% (1970-2002) to 51% during this study period. This demonstrates that despite mitigation efforts, entanglements and vessel strikes continue to inflict profound physical trauma and suffering on individual NARWs. These cumulative mortalities are also unsustainable at the population level, so urgent and aggressive intervention is needed to end anthropogenic mortality in this critically endangered species.

Fishing constrains phenotypic responses of marine fish to climate variability

Fishing and climate change are profoundly impacting marine biota through unnatural selection and exposure to potentially stressful environmental conditions. Their effects, however, are often considered in isolation, and then only at the population level, despite there being great potential for synergistic selection on the individual. We explored how fishing and climate variability interact to affect an important driver of fishery productivity and population dynamics: individual growth rate. We projected that average growth rate would increase as waters warm, a harvest-induced release from density dependence would promote adult growth, and that fishing would increase the sensitivity of somatic growth to temperature. We measured growth increments from the otoliths of 400 purple wrasse (Notolabrius funicola), a site-attached temperate marine reef fish inhabiting an ocean warming hotspot. These were used to generate nearly two decades of annually resolved growth estimates from three populations spanning a period before and after the onset of commercial fishing. We used hierarchical models to partition variation in growth within and between individuals and populations, and attribute it to intrinsic (age, individual-specific) and extrinsic (local and regional climate, fishing) drivers. At the population scale, we detected predictable additive increases in average growth rate associated with warming and a release from density dependence. A fishing-warming synergy only became apparent at the individual scale where harvest resulted in the 50% reduction of thermal growth reaction norm diversity. This phenotypic change was primarily caused by the loss of larger individuals that showed a strong positive response to temperature change after the onset of size-selective harvesting. We speculate that the dramatic loss of individual-level biocomplexity is caused by either inadvertent fisheries selectivity based on behaviour, or the disruption of social hierarchies resulting from the selective harvesting of large, dominant and resource-rich individuals. Whatever the cause, the removal of individuals that display a positive growth response to temperature could substantially reduce species' capacity to adapt to climate change at temperatures well below those previously thought stressful.

Fine-scale temperature-associated genetic structure between inshore and offshore populations of sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus)

In the northwest Atlantic Ocean, sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) has been characterized by a latitudinal genetic cline with a breakpoint between northern and southern genetic clusters occurring at ~45°N along eastern Nova Scotia, Canada. Using 96 diagnostic single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) capable of discriminating between northern and southern clusters, we examined fine-scale genetic structure of scallops among 27 sample locations, spanning the largest geographic range evaluated in this species to date (~37-51°N). Here, we confirmed previous observations of northern and southern groups, but we show that the boundary between northern and southern clusters is not a discrete latitudinal break. Instead, at latitudes near the previously described boundary, we found unexpected patterns of fine-scale genetic structure occurring between inshore and offshore sites. Scallops from offshore sites, including St. Pierre Bank and the eastern Scotian Shelf, clustered with southern stocks, whereas inshore sites at similar latitudes clustered with northern stocks. Our analyses revealed significant genetic divergence across small spatial scales (i.e., 129-221 km distances), and that spatial structure over large and fine scales was strongly associated with temperature during seasonal periods of thermal minima. Clear temperature differences between inshore and offshore locations may explain the fine-scale structuring observed, such as why southern lineages of scallop occur at higher latitudes in deeper, warmer offshore waters. Our study supports growing evidence that fine-scale population structure in marine species is common, often environmentally associated, and that consideration of environmental and genomic data can significantly enhance the identification of marine diversity and management units.