Future epidemiological and economic impacts of universal influenza vaccines

Identification and In Silico Characterization of a Conserved Peptide on Influenza Hemagglutinin Protein: A New Potential Antigen for Universal Influenza Vaccine Development

Antigenic changes in surface proteins of the influenza virus may cause the emergence of new variants that necessitate the reformulation of influenza vaccines every year. Universal influenza vaccine that relies on conserved regions can potentially be effective against all strains regardless of any antigenic changes and as a result, it can bring enormous public health impact and economic benefit worldwide. Here, a conserved peptide (HA288-107) on the stalk domain of hemagglutinin glycoprotein is identified among highly pathogenic influenza viruses. Five top-ranked B-cell and twelve T-cell epitopes were recognized by epitope mapping approaches and the corresponding Human Leukocyte Antigen alleles to T-cell epitopes showed high population coverage (>99%) worldwide. Moreover, molecular docking analysis indicated that VLMENERTL and WTYNAELLV epitopes have high binding affinity to the antigen-binding groove of the HLA-A*02:01 and HLA-A*68:02 molecules, respectively. Theoretical physicochemical properties of the peptide were assessed to ensure its thermostability and hydrophilicity. The results suggest that the HA288-107 peptide can be a promising antigen for universal influenza vaccine design. However, in vitro and in vivo analyses are needed to support and evaluate the effectiveness of the peptide as an immunogen for vaccine development.

Segmented, Negative-Sense RNA Viruses of Humans: Genetic Systems and Experimental Uses of Reporter Strains

Negative-stranded RNA viruses are a large group of viruses that encode their genomes in RNA across multiple segments in an orientation antisense to messenger RNA. Their members infect broad ranges of hosts, and there are a number of notable human pathogens. Here, we examine the development of reverse genetic systems as applied to these virus families, emphasizing conserved approaches illustrated by some of the prominent members that cause significant human disease. We also describe the utility of their genetic systems in the development of reporter strains of the viruses and some biological insights made possible by their use. To conclude the review, we highlight some possible future uses of reporter viruses that not only will increase our basic understanding of how these viruses replicate and cause disease but also could inform the development of new approaches to therapeutically intervene.

Protective Efficacy of a Mucosal Influenza Vaccine Formulation Based on the Recombinant Nucleoprotein Co-Administered with a TLR2/6 Agonist BPPcysMPEG

Current influenza vaccines target highly variable surface glycoproteins; thus, mismatches between vaccine strains and circulating strains often diminish vaccine protection. For this reason, there is still a critical need to develop effective influenza vaccines able to protect also against the drift and shift of different variants of influenza viruses. It has been demonstrated that influenza nucleoprotein (NP) is a strong candidate for a universal vaccine, which contributes to providing cross-protection in animal models. In this study, we developed an adjuvanted mucosal vaccine using the recombinant NP (rNP) and the TLR2/6 agonist S-[2,3-bispalmitoyiloxy-(2R)-propyl]-R-cysteinyl-amido-monomethoxyl-poly-ethylene-glycol (BPPcysMPEG). The vaccine efficacy was compared with that observed following parenteral vaccination of mice with the same formulation. Mice vaccinated with 2 doses of rNP alone or co-administered with BPPcysMPEG by the intranasal (i.n.) route showed enhanced antigen-specific humoral and cellular responses. Moreover, NP-specific humoral immune responses, characterized by significant NP-specific IgG and IgG subclass titers in sera and NP-specific IgA titers in mucosal territories, were remarkably increased in mice vaccinated with the adjuvanted formulation as compared with those of the non-adjuvanted vaccination group. The addition of BPPcysMPEG also improved NP-specific cellular responses in vaccinated mice, characterized by robust lymphoproliferation and mixed Th1/Th2/Th17 immune profiles. Finally, it is notable that the immune responses elicited by the novel formulation administered by the i.n. route were able to confer protection against the influenza H1N1 A/Puerto Rico/8/1934 virus.

Rate of Hospitalizations and Mortality of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection Compared to Influenza in Older People: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is commonly regarded as an infection typical of children, but increasing literature is showing its importance in older people. Since the data regarding the impact of RSV are still limited for older people, the aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to compare the rate of hospitalization and mortality between RSV and influenza in this population. A systematic literature search until 15 June 2022 was done across several databases and including studies reporting incidence rate and cumulative incidence of hospitalization and mortality in RSV and influenza affecting older people. Among 2295 records initially screened, 16 studies including 762,084 older participants were included. Compared to older patients having influenza, patients with RSV did not show any significant different risk in hospitalization (either cumulative or incidence rate). Similar results were evident for mortality. The quality of the studies was in general good. In conclusion, our systematic review and meta-analysis showed that the rate of hospitalization and mortality was similar between RSV and influenza in older adults, suggesting the importance of vaccination for RSV in older people for preventing negative outcomes, such as mortality and hospitalization.

Antiviral Polymer Brushes by Visible-Light-Induced, Oxygen-Tolerant Covalent Surface Coating

This work presents a novel route for creating metal-free antiviral coatings based on polymer brushes synthesized by surface-initiated photoinduced electron transfer-reversible addition-fragmentation chain transfer (SI-PET-RAFT) polymerization, applying eosin Y as a photocatalyst, water as a solvent, and visible light as a driving force. The polymer brushes were synthesized using N-[3-(decyldimethyl)-aminopropyl] methacrylamide bromide and carboxybetaine methacrylamide monomers. The chemical composition, thickness, roughness, and wettability of the resulting polymer brush coatings were characterized by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), atomic force microscopy (AFM), water contact angle measurements, and ellipsometry. The antiviral properties of coatings were investigated by exposure to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and avian influenza viruses, with further measurement of residual viable viral particles. The best performance was obtained with Cu surfaces, with a ca. 20-fold reduction of SARS-Cov-2 and a 50-fold reduction in avian influenza. On the polymer brush-modified surfaces, the number of viable virus particles decreased by about 5-6 times faster for avian flu and about 2-3 times faster for SARS-CoV-2, all compared to unmodified silicon surfaces. Interestingly, no significant differences were obtained between quaternary ammonium brushes and zwitterionic brushes.

Effects of baloxavir and oseltamivir antiviral therapy on the transmission of seasonal influenza in China: A mathematical modeling analysis

New antiviral influenza treatments can effectively alleviate illness while reducing viral shedding. However, how such effects can translate into lower population infections of seasonal influenza in China remains unknown. To shed light on the public health impacts of novel antiviral agents for influenza, we constructed a dynamic transmission model to simulate the seasonal influenza epidemics in China. Two antivirus treatments, baloxavir and oseltamivir, were evaluated by estimating their impacts on the incidences of influenza infection in a single flu season. In the base-case analysis of a 10% antiviral treatment uptake rate, 2760 and 3420 per 10 000 persons contracted influenza under the treatment of baloxavir and oseltamivir, respectively. These incidence rates amounted to an 18.90% relative risk reduction (RRR) of infection associated with baloxavir in relation to oseltamivir. The corresponding RRR was 82.16% when the antiviral treatment uptake rate was increased to 35%. In addition, the peak of the prevalence of infected individuals per 10 000 persons under the baloxavir treatment was 177 (range: 93-274) fewer than that of oseltamivir. Our analyses suggest that the baloxavir treatment strategy reduces the incidence of influenza in China compared with oseltamivir in the setting of a seasonal flu epidemic. Also, increasing the uptake rate of antiviral treatment can potentially prevent millions of infections during a single flu season.

Message in a bottle: mRNA vaccination for influenza

Current influenza vaccines, while being the best method of managing viral outbreaks, have several major drawbacks that prevent them from being wholly-effective. They need to be updated regularly and require extensive resources to develop. When considering alternatives, the recent deployment of mRNA vaccines for SARS-CoV-2 has created a unique opportunity to evaluate a new platform for seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccines. The mRNA format has previously been examined for application to influenza and promising data suggest it may be a viable format for next-generation influenza vaccines. Here, we discuss the prospect of shifting global influenza vaccination efforts to an mRNA-based system that might allow better control over the product and immune responses and could aid in the development of a universal vaccine.

Modeling the population-level impact of treatment on COVID-19 disease and SARS-CoV-2 transmission

Different COVID-19 treatment candidates are under development, and some are becoming available including two promising drugs from Merck and Pfizer. This study provides conceptual frameworks for the effects of three types of treatments, both therapeutic and prophylactic, and to investigate their population-level impact, to inform drug development, licensure, decision-making, and implementation. Different drug efficacies were assessed using an age-structured mathematical model describing SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease progression, with application to the United States as an illustrative example. Severe and critical infection treatment reduces progression to COVID-19 severe and critical disease and death with small number of treatments needed to avert one disease or death. Post-exposure prophylaxis treatment had a large impact on flattening the epidemic curve, with large reductions in infection, disease, and death, but the impact was strongly age dependent. Pre-exposure prophylaxis treatment had the best impact and effectiveness, with immense reductions in infection, disease, and death, driven by the robust control of infection transmission. Effectiveness of both pre-exposure and post-exposure prophylaxis treatments was disproportionally larger when a larger segment of the population was targeted than a specific age group. Additional downstream potential effects of treatment, beyond the primary outcome, enhance the population-level impact of both treatments. COVID-19 treatments are an important modality in controlling SARS-CoV-2 disease burden. Different types of treatment act synergistically for a larger impact, for these treatments and vaccination.

Human seasonal influenza under COVID-19 and the potential consequences of influenza lineage elimination

Annual epidemics of seasonal influenza cause hundreds of thousands of deaths, high levels of morbidity, and substantial economic loss. Yet, global influenza circulation has been heavily suppressed by public health measures and travel restrictions since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Notably, the influenza B/Yamagata lineage has not been conclusively detected since April 2020, and A(H3N2), A(H1N1), and B/Victoria viruses have since circulated with considerably less genetic diversity. Travel restrictions have largely confined regional outbreaks of A(H3N2) to South and Southeast Asia, B/Victoria to China, and A(H1N1) to West Africa. Seasonal influenza transmission lineages continue to perish globally, except in these select hotspots, which will likely seed future epidemics. Waning population immunity and sporadic case detection will further challenge influenza vaccine strain selection and epidemic control. We offer a perspective on the potential short- and long-term evolutionary dynamics of seasonal influenza and discuss potential consequences and mitigation strategies as global travel gradually returns to pre-pandemic levels.

COVID-19 control measures have suppressed circulation of other infections including influenza. Here, the authors analyse WHO global influenza sequence and case report data and describe changes in the phylogenetic and geographic distribution of influenza lineages during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Effect of vaccine efficacy on disease transmission with age-structured

Recent outbreaks of novel infectious diseases (e.g., COVID-19, H2N3) have highlighted the threat of pathogen transmission, and vaccination offers a necessary tool to relieve illness. However, vaccine efficacy is one of the barriers to eradicating the epidemic. Intuitively, vaccine efficacy is closely related to age structures, and the distribution of vaccine efficacy usually obeys a Gaussian distribution, such as with H3N2 and influenza A and B. Based on this fact, in this paper, we study the effect of vaccine efficacy on disease spread by considering different age structures and extending the traditional susceptible-infected-recovery/vaccinator(SIR/V) model with two stages to three stages, which includes the decision-making stage, epidemic stage, and birth-death stage. Extensive numerical simulations show that our model generates a higher vaccination level compared with the case of complete vaccine efficacy because the vaccinated individuals in our model can form small and numerous clusters slower than that of complete vaccine efficacy. In addition, priority vaccination for the elderly is conducive to halting the epidemic when facing population ageing. Our work is expected to provide valuable information for decision-making and the design of more effective disease control strategies.

Estimating the Impact of Low Influenza Activity in 2020 on Population Immunity and Future Influenza Seasons in the United States

BACKGROUND

Influenza activity in the 2020-2021 season was remarkably low, likely due to implementation of public health preventive measures such as social distancing, mask wearing, and school closure. With waning immunity, the impact of low influenza activity in the 2020-2021 season on the following season is unknown.

METHODS

We built a multistrain compartmental model that captures immunity over multiple influenza seasons in the United States. Compared with the counterfactual case, where influenza activity remained at the normal level in 2020-2021, we estimated the change in the number of hospitalizations when the transmission rate was decreased by 20% in 2020-2021. We varied the level of vaccine uptake and effectiveness in 2021-2022. We measured the change in population immunity over time by varying the number of seasons with lowered influenza activity.

RESULTS

With the lowered influenza activity in 2020-2021, the model estimated 102 000 (95% CI, 57 000-152 000) additional hospitalizations in 2021-2022, without changes in vaccine uptake and effectiveness. The estimated changes in hospitalizations varied depending on the level of vaccine uptake and effectiveness in the following year. Achieving a 50% increase in vaccine coverage was necessary to avert the expected increase in hospitalization in the next influenza season. If the low influenza activity were to continue over several seasons, population immunity would remain low during those seasons, with 48% of the population susceptible to influenza infection.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study projected a large compensatory influenza season in 2021-2022 due to a light season in 2020-2021. However, higher influenza vaccine uptake would reduce this projected increase in influenza.

Bacteriophage T4 Vaccine Platform for Next-Generation Influenza Vaccine Development

Developing influenza vaccines that protect against a broad range of viruses is a global health priority. Several conserved viral proteins or domains have been identified as promising targets for such vaccine development. However, none of the targets is sufficiently immunogenic to elicit complete protection, and vaccine platforms that can enhance immunogenicity and deliver multiple antigens are desperately needed. Here, we report proof-of-concept studies for the development of next-generation influenza vaccines using the bacteriophage T4 virus-like particle (VLP) platform. Using the extracellular domain of influenza matrix protein 2 (M2e) as a readout, we demonstrate that up to ~1,281 M2e molecules can be assembled on a 120 x 86 nanometer phage capsid to generate M2e-T4 VLPs. These M2e-decorated nanoparticles, without any adjuvant, are highly immunogenic, stimulate robust humoral as well as cellular immune responses, and conferred complete protection against lethal influenza virus challenge. Potentially, additional conserved antigens could be incorporated into the M2e-T4 VLPs and mass-produced in E. coli in a short amount of time to deal with an emerging influenza pandemic.

A recombinant herpes virus expressing influenza hemagglutinin confers protection and induces antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity

Despite widespread yearly vaccination, influenza leads to significant morbidity and mortality across the globe. To make a more broadly protective influenza vaccine, it may be necessary to elicit antibodies that can activate effector functions in immune cells, such as antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC). There is growing evidence supporting the necessity for ADCC in protection against influenza and herpes simplex virus (HSV), among other infectious diseases. An HSV-2 strain lacking the essential glycoprotein D (gD), was used to create ΔgD-2, which is a highly protective vaccine against lethal HSV-1 and HSV-2 infection in mice. It also elicits high levels of IgG2c antibodies that bind FcγRIV, a receptor that activates ADCC. To make an ADCC-eliciting influenza vaccine, we cloned the hemagglutinin (HA) gene from an H1N1 influenza A strain into the ΔgD-2 HSV vector. Vaccination with ΔgD-2::HA_PR8 was protective against homologous influenza challenge and elicited an antibody response against HA that inhibits hemagglutination (HAI⁺), is predominantly IgG2c, strongly activates FcγRIV, and protects against influenza challenge following passive immunization of naïve mice. Prior exposure of mice to HSV-1, HSV-2, or a replication-defective HSV-2 vaccine (dl5-29) does not reduce protection against influenza by ΔgD-2::HA_PR8 This vaccine also continues to elicit protection against both HSV-1 and HSV-2, including high levels of IgG2c antibodies against HSV-2. Mice lacking the interferon-α/β receptor and mice lacking the interferon-γ receptor were also protected against influenza challenge by ΔgD-2::HA_PR8 Our results suggest that ΔgD-2 can be used as a vaccine vector against other pathogens, while also eliciting protective anti-HSV immunity.

Epidemiological Characteristics of Influenza A and B in Macau, 2010-2018

Influenza is one of the major respiratory diseases in humans. Macau is a tourist city with high density of population and special population mobility. The study on the epidemiological characteristics of influenza in Macau should bring great value for preventing influenza in tourist cities like Macau in the world. In this study, we collected a total of 104,874 samples with influenza-like illness (ILI) in Macau from 2010 to 2018. Chi-square test and binary multivariable logistic regression were used to investigate the epidemiological characteristics of influenza A and B in Macau. Among these ILI samples, the overall positive rate is 17.17% for influenza A and 6.97% for influenza B. The epidemics of influenza in three years (i.e., 2012, 2017 and 2018) differ from the remaining years (i.e., normal years). In a normal year, influenza A occurs year-round whereas influenza B is seasonal. Our research shows significant differences in influenza infections between different age groups in normal years. Interestingly, our analysis shows no significant difference between locals and tourists in influenza A and B infection in a normal year, whereas the odds of influenza A in tourists were significantly higher than those in locals in July 2017 and the odds of influenza B in tourists were significantly higher than those in locals in January-February 2012 and January-February 2018. This is possibly attributed by the policy of free vaccination to everyone in Macau. These findings should be valuable for preventing influenza in not only Macau but also the world.

Seasonal Influenza Prevention and Control Progress in Latin America and the Caribbean in the Context of the Global Influenza Strategy and the COVID-19 Pandemic

Each year in Latin America and the Caribbean, seasonal influenza is associated with an estimated 36,500 respiratory deaths and 400,000 hospitalizations. Since the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic, the Region has made significant advances in the prevention and control of seasonal influenza, including improved surveillance systems, burden estimates, and vaccination of at-risk groups. The Global Influenza Strategy 2019–2030 provides a framework to strengthen these advances. Against the backdrop of this new framework, the University of Colorado convened in October 2020 its Immunization Advisory Group of Experts to review and discuss current surveillance, prevention, and control strategies for seasonal influenza in Latin America and the Caribbean, also in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. This review identified five areas for action and made recommendations specific to each area. The Region should continue its efforts to strengthen surveillance and impact evaluations. Existing data on disease burden, seasonality patterns, and vaccination effectiveness should be used to inform decision-making at the country level as well as advocacy efforts for programmatic resources. Regional and country strategic plans should be prepared and include specific targets for 2030. Existing investments in influenza prevention and control, including for immunization programs, should be optimized. Finally, regional partnerships, such as the regional networks for syndromic surveillance and vaccine effectiveness evaluation (SARInet and REVELAC-i), should continue to play a critical role in continuous learning and standardization by sharing experiences and best practices among countries.

Effects of Influenza Vaccination in the United States During the 2018-2019 Influenza Season

BACKGROUND

Multivalent influenza vaccine products provide protection against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), and B lineage viruses. The 2018-2019 influenza season in the United States included prolonged circulation of A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses well-matched to the vaccine strain and A(H3N2) viruses, the majority of which were mismatched to the vaccine. We estimated the number of vaccine-prevented influenza-associated illnesses, medical visits, hospitalizations, and deaths for the season.

METHODS

We used a mathematical model and Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate numbers and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) of influenza-associated outcomes prevented by vaccination in the United States. The model incorporated age-specific estimates of national 2018-2019 influenza vaccine coverage, influenza virus-specific vaccine effectiveness from the US Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network, and disease burden estimated from population-based rates of influenza-associated hospitalizations through the Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network.

RESULTS

Influenza vaccination prevented an estimated 4.4 million (95%UI, 3.4 million-7.1 million) illnesses, 2.3 million (95%UI, 1.8 million-3.8 million) medical visits, 58 000 (95%UI, 30 000-156 000) hospitalizations, and 3500 (95%UI, 1000-13 000) deaths due to influenza viruses during the US 2018-2019 influenza season. Vaccination prevented 14% of projected hospitalizations associated with A(H1N1)pdm09 overall and 43% among children aged 6 months-4 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza vaccination averted substantial influenza-associated disease including hospitalizations and deaths in the United States, primarily due to effectiveness against A(H1N1)pdm09. Our findings underscore the value of influenza vaccination, highlighting that vaccines measurably decrease illness and associated healthcare utilization even in a season in which a vaccine component does not match to a circulating virus.

Shot of a lifetime: How pharmacists stay ahead of the season

OBJECTIVES

The profession of pharmacy has long advocated for the advancement of practice through increased clinical responsibility. Provision of immunization related services has been one service pharmacists have been able to provide to add to their existing responsibilities. A universal influenza vaccination has been under investigation and is nearing success. While other clinical services should be considered, now more than ever, development of the universal vaccine should provide a pause for the profession and consideration of not only the impact on student learning opportunities but also pharmacy revenue.

SUMMARY

The development of the universal influenza vaccination poses a potential challenge to existing service-related revenue models for community pharmacies. There are many other opportunities pharmacists can capitalize on including, but not limited to, travel and other vaccinations, point-of-care testing, and transitions-of-care. In addition, through initiatives such as "Flip the Pharmacy" and Community Pharmacy Enhanced Service Network, pharmacists are in a great position to be innovative with clinical services while continuing to provide learners with training opportunities.

CONCLUSION

Many opportunities exist for pharmacists to expand services that lean into their clinical training and add other vaccination opportunities. These opportunities can augment revenue streams and still provide learners with training.

Spatial transmission network construction of influenza-like illness using dynamic Bayesian network and vector-autoregressive moving average model

BACKGROUND

Although vaccination is one of the main countermeasures against influenza epidemic, it is highly essential to make informed prevention decisions to guarantee that limited vaccination resources are allocated to the places where they are most needed. Hence, one of the fundamental steps for decision making in influenza prevention is to characterize its spatio-temporal trend, especially on the key problem about how influenza transmits among adjacent places and how much impact the influenza of one place could have on its neighbors. To solve this problem while avoiding too much additional time-consuming work on data collection, this study proposed a new concept of spatio-temporal route as well as its estimation methods to construct the influenza transmission network.

METHODS

The influenza-like illness (ILI) data of Sichuan province in 21 cities was collected from 2010 to 2016. A joint pattern based on the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model and the vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model was utilized to estimate the spatio-temporal routes, which were applied to the two stages of learning process respectively, namely structure learning and parameter learning. In structure learning, the first-order conditional dependencies approximation algorithm was used to generate the DBN, which could visualize the spatio-temporal routes of influenza among adjacent cities and infer which cities have impacts on others in influenza transmission. In parameter learning, the VARMA model was adopted to estimate the strength of these impacts. Finally, all the estimated spatio-temporal routes were put together to form the final influenza transmission network.

RESULTS

The results showed that the period of influenza transmission cycle was longer in Western Sichuan and Chengdu Plain than that in Northeastern Sichuan, and there would be potential spatio-temporal routes of influenza from bordering provinces or municipalities into Sichuan province. Furthermore, this study also pointed out several estimated spatio-temporal routes with relatively high strength of associations, which could serve as clues of hot spot areas detection for influenza surveillance.

CONCLUSIONS

This study proposed a new framework for exploring the potentially stable spatio-temporal routes between different places and measuring specific the sizes of transmission effects. It could help making timely and reliable prediction of the spatio-temporal trend of infectious diseases, and further determining the possible key areas of the next epidemic by considering their neighbors' incidence and the transmission relationships.

Modelling the impact of universal influenza vaccines on seasonal influenza with different subtypes

Several candidates of universal influenza vaccine (UIV) have entered phase III clinical trials, which are expected to improve the willingness and coverage of the population substantially. The impact of UIV on the seasonal influenza epidemic in low influenza vaccination coverage regions like China remains unclear. We proposed a new compartmental model involving the transmission of different influenza subtypes to evaluate the effects of UIV. We calibrated the model by weekly surveillance data of influenza in Xi'an City, Shaanxi Province, China, during 2010/11–2018/19 influenza seasons. We calculated the percentage of averted infections under 2-month (September to October) and 6-month (September to the next February) vaccination patterns with varied UIV effectiveness and coverage in each influenza season, compared with no UIV scenario. A total of 195 766 influenza-like illness (ILI) cases were reported during the nine influenza seasons (2010/11–2018/19), of which the highest ILI cases were among age group 0–4 (59.60%) years old, followed by 5–14 (25.22%), 25–59 (8.19%), 15–24 (3.75%) and ⩾60 (3.37%) years old. The influenza-positive rate for all age groups among ILI cases was 17.51%, which is highest among 5–14 (23.75%) age group and followed by 25–59 (16.44%), 15–24 (16.42%), 0–4 (14.66%) and ⩾60 (13.98%) age groups, respectively. Our model showed that UIV might greatly avert influenza infections irrespective of subtypes in each influenza season. For example, in the 2018/19 influenza season, 2-month vaccination pattern with low UIV effectiveness (50%) and coverage (10%), and high UIV effectiveness (75%) and coverage (30%) could avert 41.6% (95% CI 27.8–55.4%) and 83.4% (80.9–85.9%) of influenza infections, respectively; 6-month vaccination pattern with low and high UIV effectiveness and coverage could avert 32.0% (15.9–48.2%) and 74.2% (69.7–78.7%) of influenza infections, respectively. It would need 11.4% (7.9–15.0%) of coverage to reduce half of the influenza infections for 2-month vaccination pattern with low UIV effectiveness and 8.5% (5.0–11.2%) of coverage with high UIV effectiveness, while it would need 15.5% (8.9–20.7%) of coverage for 6-month vaccination pattern with low UIV effectiveness and 11.2% (6.5–15.0%) of coverage with high UIV effectiveness. We conclude that UIV could significantly reduce the influenza infections even for low UIV effectiveness and coverage. The 2-month vaccination pattern could avert more influenza infections than the 6-month vaccination pattern irrespective of influenza subtype and UIV effectiveness and coverage.

Epidemiological Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination: Mathematical Modeling Analyses

This study aims to inform SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development/licensure/decision-making/implementation, using mathematical modeling, by determining key preferred vaccine product characteristics and associated population-level impacts of a vaccine eliciting long-term protection. A prophylactic vaccine with efficacy against acquisition (VE_S) ≥70% can eliminate the infection. A vaccine with VE_S <70% may still control the infection if it reduces infectiousness or infection duration among those vaccinated who acquire the infection, if it is supplemented with <20% reduction in contact rate, or if it is complemented with herd-immunity. At VE_S of 50%, the number of vaccinated persons needed to avert one infection is 2.4, and the number is 25.5 to avert one severe disease case, 33.2 to avert one critical disease case, and 65.1 to avert one death. The probability of a major outbreak is zero at VE_S ≥70% regardless of the number of virus introductions. However, an increase in social contact rate among those vaccinated (behavior compensation) can undermine vaccine impact. In addition to the reduction in infection acquisition, developers should assess the natural history and disease progression outcomes when evaluating vaccine impact.

Epidemiological Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination: Mathematical Modeling Analyses

This study aims to inform SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development/licensure/decision-making/implementation, using mathematical modeling, by determining key preferred vaccine product characteristics and associated population-level impacts of a vaccine eliciting long-term protection. A prophylactic vaccine with efficacy against acquisition (VES) ≥70% can eliminate the infection. A vaccine with VES <70% may still control the infection if it reduces infectiousness or infection duration among those vaccinated who acquire the infection, if it is supplemented with <20% reduction in contact rate, or if it is complemented with herd-immunity. At VES of 50%, the number of vaccinated persons needed to avert one infection is 2.4, and the number is 25.5 to avert one severe disease case, 33.2 to avert one critical disease case, and 65.1 to avert one death. The probability of a major outbreak is zero at VES ≥70% regardless of the number of virus introductions. However, an increase in social contact rate among those vaccinated (behavior compensation) can undermine vaccine impact. In addition to the reduction in infection acquisition, developers should assess the natural history and disease progression outcomes when evaluating vaccine impact.

The efficacy and safety of influenza vaccination in older people: An umbrella review of evidence from meta-analyses of both observational and randomized controlled studies

Vaccination is the main public health intervention to prevent influenza. We aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of influenza vaccination including systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies and randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Peer-reviewed systematic reviews with meta-analyses of prospective studies that investigated the association of influenza vaccination with any health-related outcome, as well as RCTs that investigated the efficacy and safety of influenza vaccination, were included. Among 1240 references, 6 meta-analyses were included. In cohort studies of community-dwelling older people influenza vaccination was associated with a lower risk of hospitalization for heart disease and for influenza/pneumonia (strength of evidence: convincing). Evidence in lowering the risk of mortality in community-dwelling older people, of all deaths/severe respiratory diseases in high risk community-dwelling older people and of hospitalization for influenza/pneumonia in case-control studies, was highly suggestive. In RCTs, influenza vaccination, compared to placebo/no intervention, was associated to higher risk of local tenderness/sore arm and to a reduced risk of influenza like-illness. Both these associations showed moderate evidence using the GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation). In conclusion, influenza vaccination in older people seems safe and effective. Further, the evidence on safety and efficacy of vaccines in this population might benefit by an extension of the follow-up period both in RCTs and in longitudinal studies, beyond the usual 6-month period, in order to be able to evaluate the impact of vaccination on long term outcomes.

Better influenza vaccines: an industry perspective

Vaccination is the most effective measure at preventing influenza virus infections. However, current seasonal influenza vaccines are only protective against closely matched circulating strains. Even with extensive monitoring and annual reformulation our efforts remain one step behind the rapidly evolving virus, often resulting in mismatches and low vaccine effectiveness. Fortunately, many next-generation influenza vaccines are currently in development, utilizing an array of innovative techniques to shorten production time and increase the breadth of protection. This review summarizes the production methods of current vaccines, recent advances that have been made in influenza vaccine research, and highlights potential challenges that are yet to be overcome. Special emphasis is put on the potential role of glycoengineering in influenza vaccine development, and the advantages of removing the glycan shield on influenza surface antigens to increase vaccine immunogenicity. The potential for future development of these novel influenza vaccine candidates is discussed from an industry perspective.

Will the public take a universal influenza vaccine?: the need for social and behavioral science research

Every influenza season, uptake of the flu vaccine falls short of the Healthy People 2020 goal of at least 70% of adults being vaccinated. Mixed methods research finds multiple factors associated with this phenomenon including misconceptions about the vaccine, skepticism about an annual vaccine, concerns about efficacy and safety, lack of knowledge, perceived risk, among others. The national goal to develop, test and produce an effective universal influenza vaccine requires a significant scientific and financial investment in research. However, there is no true investment in the social and behavioral science research necessary to ensure that once a universal vaccine is available, the public will take that new vaccine. This article highlights some qualitative and quantitative research results to provide some understanding of the challenges to increasing vaccine uptake. We also identify research questions necessary to ensure adoption of new universal vaccines.