Anthropogenic pressures and life history predict trajectories of seagrass meadow extent at a global scale

Rapid seagrass meadow expansion in an Indian Ocean bright spot

The areal extent of seagrass meadows is in rapid global decline, yet they provide highly valuable societal benefits. However, their conservation is hindered by data gaps on current and historic spatial extents. Here, we outline an approach for national-scale seagrass mapping and monitoring using an open-source platform (Google Earth Engine) and freely available satellite data (Landsat, Sentinel-2) that can be readily applied in other countries globally. Specifically, we map contemporary (2021) and historical (2000-2021; n = 10 maps) shallow water seagrass extent across the Maldives. We found contemporary Maldivian seagrass extent was ~ 105 km2 (overall accuracy = 82.04%) and, notably, that seagrass area increased threefold between 2000 and 2021 (linear model, + 4.6 km2 year-1, r2 = 0.93, p < 0.001). There was a strongly significant association between seagrass and anthropogenic activity (p < 0.001) that we hypothesize to be driven by nutrient loading and/or altered sediment dynamics (from large scale land reclamation), which would represent a beneficial anthropogenic influence on Maldivian seagrass meadows. National-scale tropical seagrass expansion is unique against the backdrop of global seagrass decline and we therefore highlight the Maldives as a rare global seagrass 'bright spot' highly worthy of increased attention across scientific, commercial, and conservation policy contexts.

A data-driven approach to multiple-stressor impact assessment for a marine protected area

The coastal environment is not managed in a way that considers the impact of cumulative threats, despite being subject to threats from all realms (marine, land, and atmosphere). Relationships between threats and species are often nonlinear; thus, current (linear) approaches to estimating the impact of threats may be misleading. We developed a data-driven approach to assessing cumulative impacts on ecosystems and applied it to explore nonlinear relationships between threats and a temperate reef fish community. We used data on water quality, commercial fishing, climate change, and indicators of recreational fishing and urbanization to build a cumulative threat map of the northern region in New South Wales, Australia. We used statistical models of fish abundance to quantify associations among threats and biophysical covariates and predicted where cumulative impacts are likely to have the greatest impact on fish. We also assessed the performance of no-take zones (NTZs), to protect fish from cumulative threats across 2 marine protected area networks (marine parks). Fishing had a greater impact on fish than water quality threats (i.e., percent increase above the mean for invertivores was 337% when fishing was removed and was 11% above the mean when water quality was removed inside NTZs), and fishing outside NTZs affected fish abundances inside NTZs. Quantifying the spatial influence of multiple threats enables managers to understand the multitude of management actions required to address threats.

Identifying conservation and restoration priorities for degraded coastal wetland vegetations: Integrating species distribution model and GeoDetector

The ongoing degradation of seagrass and seaweed is of global concern. Comprehending the spatial distribution of these wetland vegetation types and the threats they face becomes critical for effective conservation and restoration efforts. In this study, we combined a species distribution model and geographical detector to propose a novel framework for mapping the distribution and disturbance of degraded coastal wetland vegetation in sparsely recorded areas and identifying conservation and restoration priorities. Guangxi is a province in China known for its extensive coastal wetland vegetation. In our study of Guangxi, habitats suitable for two degraded vegetation types, i.e., seagrass and seaweed, were mapped using the maximum entropy model; 669.44 km2 of seagrass habitat and 929.69 km2 of seaweed habitat were identified. The geographical detector model was used to analyze anthropogenic disturbance caused by four local disturbance factors: shoreline development, fisheries, waterways, and ports and anchorages. Shoreline development was identified as the disturbance factor with the strongest impact on potential habitats of both vegetation types. According to these findings, 48.40 %-64.23 % of the vegetation habitats suffered from high anthropogenic disturbance. Preexisting nature reserves had not effectively protected wetland vegetation from human disturbance. Based on the spatial pattern of vegetation habitat and comprehensive anthropogenic disturbance, conservation and restoration priorities for seagrasses and seaweeds covering an area of 302.26 km2 were further mapped. Our results thus help improve wetland vegetation conservation by providing basic information, and they provide a tool to support site planning for seagrass and seaweed conservation and restoration.

The vulnerability of World Heritage seagrass habitats to climate change

Seagrass is an important natural attribute of 28 World Heritage (WH) properties. These WH seagrass habitats provide a wide range of services to adjacent ecosystems and human communities, and are one of the largest natural carbon sinks on the planet. Climate change is considered the greatest and fastest-growing threat to natural WH properties and evidence of climate-related impacts on seagrass habitats has been growing. The main objective of this study was to assess the vulnerability of WH seagrass habitats to location-specific key climate stressors. Quantitative surveys of seagrass experts and site managers were used to assess exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of WH seagrass habitats to climate stressors, following the Climate Vulnerability Index approach. Over half of WH seagrass habitats have high vulnerability to climate change, mainly from the long-term increase in sea-surface temperature and short-term marine heatwaves. Potential impacts from climate change and certainty scores associated with them were higher than reported by a similar survey-based study from 10 years prior, indicating a shift in stakeholder perspectives during the past decade. Additionally, seagrass experts' opinions on the cumulative impacts of climate and direct-anthropogenic stressors revealed that high temperature in combination with high suspended sediments, eutrophication and hypoxia is likely to provoke a synergistic cumulative (negative) impact (p < .05). A key component contributing to the high vulnerability assessments was the low adaptive capacity; however, discrepancies between adaptive capacity scores and qualitative responses suggest that managers of WH seagrass habitats might not be adequately equipped to respond to climate change impacts. This thematic assessment provides valuable information to help prioritize conservation actions, monitoring activities and research in WH seagrass habitats. It also demonstrates the utility of a systematic framework to evaluate the vulnerability of thematic groups of protected areas that share a specific attribute.

Cumulative effects of multiple stressors impact an endangered seagrass population and fish communities

Coastal ecosystems are becoming increasingly threatened by human activities and there is growing appreciation that management must consider the impacts of multiple stressors. Cumulative effects assessments (CEAs) have become a popular tool for identifying the distribution and intensity of multiple human stressors in coastal ecosystems. Few studies, however, have demonstrated strong correlations between CEAs and change in ecosystem condition, questioning its management use. Here, we apply a CEA to the endangered seagrass Posidonia australis in Pittwater, NSW, Australia, using spatial data on known stressors to seagrass related to foreshore development, water quality, vessel traffic and fishing. We tested how well cumulative effects scores explained changes in P. australis extent measured between 2005 and 2019 using high-resolution aerial imagery. A negative correlation between P. australis and estimated cumulative effects scores was observed (R2 = 22 %), and we identified a threshold of cumulative effects above which losses of P. australis became more likely. Using baited remote underwater video, we surveyed fishes over P. australis and non-vegetated sediments to infer and quantify how impacts of cumulative effects to P. australis extent would flow on to fish assemblages. P. australis contained a distinct assemblage of fish, and on non-vegetated sediments the abundance of sparids, which are of importance to fisheries, increased with closer proximity to P. australis. Our results demonstrate the negative impact of multiple stressors on P. australis and the consequences for fish biodiversity and fisheries production across much of the estuary. Management actions aimed at reducing or limiting cumulative effects to low and moderate levels will help conserve P. australis and its associated fish biodiversity and productivity.

Vegetative fragment production as a means of propagule dispersal for tropical seagrass meadows

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Long distance dispersal (LDD) contributes to the replenishment and recovery of tropical seagrass habitats exposed to disturbance, such as cyclones and infrastructure development. However, our current knowledge regarding the physical attributes of seagrass fragments that influence LDD predominantly stems from temperate species and regions. The goal of this paper is to measure seagrass fragment density and viability in two tropical species, assessing various factors influencing their distribution.

METHODS

We measured the density and viability of floating seagrass fragments for two tropical seagrass species (Zostera muelleri and Halodule uninervis) in two coastal seagrass meadows in the central Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area, Australia. We assessed the effect of wind speed, wind direction, seagrass growing/senescent season, seagrass meadow density, meadow location and dugong foraging intensity on fragment density. We also measured seagrass fragment structure and fragment viability; i.e., potential to establish into a new plant.

KEY RESULTS

We found that seagrass meadow density, season, wind direction and wind speed influenced total fragment density, while season and wind speed influenced the density of viable fragments. Dugong foraging intensity did not influence fragment density. Our results indicate that wave action from winds combined with high seagrass meadow density increases seagrass fragment creation, and that more fragments are produced during the growing than the senescent season. Seagrass fragments classified as viable for Z. muelleri and H. uninervis had significantly more shoots and leaves than non-viable fragments. We collected 0.63 (±0.08 SE) floating viable fragments 100 m-2 in the growing season, and 0.13 (±0.03 SE) viable fragments 100 m-2 in the senescent season. Over a third (38%) of all fragments collected were viable.

CONCLUSION

There is likely to be a large number of viable seagrass fragments available for long distance dispersal. This study's outputs can inform dispersal and connectivity models that are used to direct seagrass ecosystem management and conservation strategies.

Trends in the application of remote sensing in blue carbon science

Blue carbon ecosystems (BCEs), such as mangroves, saltmarshes, and seagrasses, are increasingly recognized as natural climate solutions. Evaluating the current extent, losses, and gains of BCEs is crucial to estimating greenhouse gas emissions and supporting policymaking. Remote sensing approaches are uniquely suited to assess the factors driving BCEs dynamics and their impacts at various spatial and temporal scales. Here, we explored trends in the application of remote sensing in blue carbon science. We used bibliometric analysis to assess 2193 published papers for changes in research focus over time (1990 - June 2022). Over the past three decades, publications have steadily increased, with an annual growth rate of 16.9%. Most publications focused on mangrove ecosystems and used the optical spaceborne Landsat mission, presumably due to its long-term, open-access archives. Recent technologies such as LiDAR, UAVs, and acoustic sensors have enabled fine-scale mapping and monitoring of BCEs. Dominant research topics were related to mapping and monitoring natural and human impacts on BCEs, estimating vegetation and biophysical parameters, machine and deep learning algorithms, management (including conservation and restoration), and climate research. Based on corresponding author affiliations, 80 countries contributed to the field, with United States (27.2%), China (15.0%), Australia (7.5%), and India (6.0%) holding leading positions. Overall, our results reveal the need to increase research efforts for seagrasses, saltmarshes, and macroalgae, integrate technologies, increase the use of remote sensing to support carbon accounting methodologies and crediting schemes, and strengthen collaboration and resource sharing among countries. Rapid advances in remote sensing technology and decreased image acquisition and processing costs will likely enhance research and management efforts focused on BCEs.

Effects of anthropogenic pressures on the seagrass Halophila stipulacea and its associated macrozoobenthic communities in the northern Gulf of Aqaba

Halophila stipulacea is a tropical seagrass species, native to the Red Sea, Persian Gulf, and Indian Ocean, while invasive to the Mediterranean and Caribbean Seas. The benthic fauna assemblages associated with H. stipulacea in its native habitats and the potential effects of anthropogenic stressors on these assemblages remain unknown. We compared meadow characteristics, associated fauna assemblages and trophic niche structures of H. stipulacea from an impacted and a pristine site in the northern Red Sea. Seagrass cover and biomass were higher in the impacted site, however, the associated fauna community was more abundant and diverse in the pristine site. Both meadows showed comparable trophic niches based on stable isotope analysis. This study provides first insights into the macrozoobenthos associated with H. stipulacea in its native habitat and highlights the importance of better understanding the relationship between seagrasses and their associated biota and the potential effects of urbanization on this relationship.

Drivers of variation in seagrass-associated amphipods across biogeographical areas

Amphipods are one of the dominant epifaunal groups in seagrass meadows. However, our understanding of the biogeographical patterns in the distribution of these small crustaceans is limited. In this study, we investigated such patterns and the potential drivers in twelve Cymodocea nodosa meadows within four distinctive biogeographical areas across 2000 Km and 13° of latitude in two ocean basins (Mediterranean Sea and Atlantic Ocean). We found that species abundances in the assemblage of seagrass-associated amphipods differed among areas following a pattern largely explained by seagrass leaf area and epiphyte biomass, while the variation pattern in species presence/absence was determined by seagrass density and epiphyte biomass. Seagrass leaf area was also the most important determinant of greater amphipod total density and species richness, while amphipod density also increased with algal cover. Overall, our results evidenced that biogeographical patterns of variation in amphipod assemblages are mainly influenced by components of the habitat structure, which covary with environmental conditions, finding that structurally more complex meadows harboring higher abundance and richness of amphipods associated.

A trait-based framework for seagrass ecology: Trends and prospects

In the last three decades, quantitative approaches that rely on organism traits instead of taxonomy have advanced different fields of ecological research through establishing the mechanistic links between environmental drivers, functional traits, and ecosystem functions. A research subfield where trait-based approaches have been frequently used but poorly synthesized is the ecology of seagrasses; marine angiosperms that colonized the ocean 100M YA and today make up productive yet threatened coastal ecosystems globally. Here, we compiled a comprehensive trait-based response-effect framework (TBF) which builds on previous concepts and ideas, including the use of traits for the study of community assembly processes, from dispersal and response to abiotic and biotic factors, to ecosystem function and service provision. We then apply this framework to the global seagrass literature, using a systematic review to identify the strengths, gaps, and opportunities of the field. Seagrass trait research has mostly focused on the effect of environmental drivers on traits, i.e., "environmental filtering" (72%), whereas links between traits and functions are less common (26.9%). Despite the richness of trait-based data available, concepts related to TBFs are rare in the seagrass literature (15% of studies), including the relative importance of neutral and niche assembly processes, or the influence of trait dominance or complementarity in ecosystem function provision. These knowledge gaps indicate ample potential for further research, highlighting the need to understand the links between the unique traits of seagrasses and the ecosystem services they provide.

Seagrass macrobenthic biodiversity does not vary in conformity with a leaky-lagoonal confinement gradient

Coastal lagoon ecology often changes on progression from the open, well-flushed mouth region to the depositional zone furthest from the open sea. This is generally considered consequent on increasing 'confinement' and associated features, rather than on the often co-occurringly decreasing salinity. The 12 km Rainbow Channel connecting part of Moreton Bay, a microtidal leaky lagoon, to the adjacent Pacific provides a gradient of increasing confinement without any significant salinity change, i.e. a tenfold increase in water residence time for a salinity decrease of <1. Macrobenthic faunal assemblages characterising intertidal Zostera seagrass at strategic points along its length were compared to test whether their nature changed in conformity with confinement models. Results suggest that it does not; faunal abundance, species richness, evenness and composition remaining effectively unchanged along the gradient. Seagrass systems may constitute a special case because they decouple renewal times of the overlying water and local organic enrichment/decomposition; as may leaky lagoons because of their high tidal velocities.

Fluctuating fortunes: Stressor synchronicity and fluctuating intensity influence biological impacts

Ecosystems remain under enormous pressure from multiple anthropogenic stressors. Manipulative experiments evaluating stressor interactions and impacts mostly apply stressors under static conditions without considering how variable stressor intensity (i.e. fluctuations) and synchronicity (i.e. timing of fluctuations) affect biological responses. We ask how variable stressor intensity and synchronicity, and interaction type, can influence how multiple stressors affect seagrass. At the highest intensities, fluctuating stressors applied asynchronously reduced seagrass biomass 36% more than for static stressors, yet no such difference occurred for photosynthetic capacity. Testing three separate hypotheses to predict underlying drivers of differences in biological responses highlighted alternative modes of action dependent on how stressors fluctuated over time. Given that environmental conditions are constantly changing, assessing static stressors may lead to inaccurate predictions of cumulative effects. Translating multiple stressor experiments to the real world, therefore, requires considering variability in stressor intensity and the synchronicity of fluctuations.

De novo assembly and annotation of the transcriptome of the endangered seagrass Zostera capensis: Insights from differential gene expression under thermal stress

Seagrasses are important marine ecosystem engineers but anthropogenic impacts and climate change have led to numerous population declines globally. In South Africa, Zostera capensis is endangered due to fragmented populations and heavy anthropogenic pressures on estuarine ecosystems that house the core of the populations. Addressing questions of how pressures such as climate change affect foundational species, including Z. capensis are crucial to supporting their conservation and underpin restoration efforts. Here we use ecological transcriptomics to study key functional responses of Z. capensis through quantification of gene expression after thermal stress and present the first reference transcriptome of Z. capensis. Four de novo reference assemblies (Trinity, IDBA-tran, RNAspades, SOAPdenovo) filtered through the EvidentialGene pipeline resulted in 153,755 transcripts with a BUSCO score of 66.1% for completeness. Differential expression analysis between heat stressed (32 °C for three days) and pre-warming plants identified genes involved in photosynthesis, oxidative stress, translation, metabolic and biosynthetic processes in the Z. capensis thermal stress response. This reference transcriptome is a significant contribution to the limited available genomic resources for Z. capensis and represents a vital tool for addressing questions around the species restoration and potential functional responses to warming marine environments.

The planetary role of seagrass conservation

Seagrasses are remarkable plants that have adapted to live in a marine environment. They form extensive meadows found globally that bioengineer their local environments and preserve the coastal seascape. With the increasing realization of the planetary emergency that we face, there is growing interest in using seagrasses as a nature-based solution for greenhouse gas mitigation. However, seagrass sensitivity to stressors is acute, and in many places, the risk of loss and degradation persists. If the ecological state of seagrasses remains compromised, then their ability to contribute to nature-based solutions for the climate emergency and biodiversity crisis remains in doubt. We examine the major ecological role that seagrasses play and how rethinking their conservation is critical to understanding their part in fighting our planetary emergency.

Community-specific "desired" states for seagrasses through cycles of loss and recovery

Seagrass habitats provide critical ecosystem services, yet there is ongoing concern over mounting pressures and continuing degradation. Defining a desired state for these habitats is a key step in implementing appropriate management but is often difficult given the challenges of available data and an evaluation of where to set benchmarks. We use more than 20 years of historical seagrass biomass data (1995-2018) for the diverse seagrass communities of Australia's Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area (GBRWHA) to develop desired state benchmarks. Desired state for seagrass biomass was estimated for 25 of 36 previously defined seagrass communities with the remainder having insufficient data. Desired state varied by more than one order of magnitude between community types and was influenced by the mix of species in the communities and the range of environmental conditions. We identify a historical, decadal-scale cycle of decline with recovery to desired state in coastal intertidal communities. In contrast a number of the estuary and coastal subtidal communities have not recovered to desired state biomass. Understanding a historical context is critically important for setting benchmarks and making informed management decisions on the present state of seagrass in the GBRWHA. The approach we have developed is scalable for monitoring, management and assessment of pressures for other management areas and for other jurisdictions. Our results guide conservation planning through prioritization of the at-risk seagrass communities that are continuing to fall below their desired state.

A network analysis of connected biophysical pathways to advice eelgrass (Zostera marina) restoration

The North Sea and the Baltic Sea, including Danish coastal waters, have experienced a drastic decline in eelgrass Zostera marina coverage during the past century. Around 1900, eelgrass meadows covered about 6700 km² of Danish coastal waters while the current potential distribution area is only about one third of this. In some areas, the potential distribution area is far from realized, and restoration efforts are needed to assist recovery. Such efforts are challenging, and resource-demanding and careful site selection is, therefore, important. In the present study, we aim to identify the connectivity of eelgrass populations as a basis for guiding site selection for restoration. We developed a coupled biophysical model to study eelgrass dispersal in the Kattegat. Partly submerged particles simulated the dispersal of reproductive eelgrass shoots containing seeds during the flowering season July-September. We then used network analysis to identify the potential connectivity between populations. We evaluated connectivity based on In-strength, Betweenness and Eigenvector centrality metrics and identified key areas in the Kattegat such as the central part of Aalborg Bay, to be considered to restore the network of Z. marina patches. The study proves the potentials of combining hydrodynamic models and network analysis to support marine conservation and planning, and highlights the importance of collaboration between ecologists, oceanographers, and practitioners in this endeavour.

Interactive effects of multiple stressors vary with consumer interactions, stressor dynamics and magnitude

Predicting the impacts of multiple stressors is important for informing ecosystem management but is impeded by a lack of a general framework for predicting whether stressors interact synergistically, additively or antagonistically. Here, we use process-based models to study how interactions generalise across three levels of biological organisation (physiological, population and consumer-resource) for a two-stressor experiment on a seagrass model system. We found that the same underlying processes could result in synergistic, additive or antagonistic interactions, with interaction type depending on initial conditions, experiment duration, stressor dynamics and consumer presence. Our results help explain why meta-analyses of multiple stressor experimental results have struggled to identify predictors of consistently non-additive interactions in the natural environment. Experiments run over extended temporal scales, with treatments across gradients of stressor magnitude, are needed to identify the processes that underpin how stressors interact and provide useful predictions to management.

Ambitious global targets for mangrove and seagrass recovery

There is an urgent need to halt and reverse loss of mangroves and seagrass to protect and increase the ecosystem services they provide to coastal communities, such as enhancing coastal resilience and contributing to climate stability.^1,2 Ambitious targets for their recovery can inspire public and private investment in conservation,³ but the expected outcomes of different protection and restoration strategies are unclear. We estimated potential recovery of mangroves and seagrass through gains in ecosystem extent to the year 2070 under a range of protection and restoration strategies implemented until the year 2050. Under a protection-only scenario, the current trajectories of net mangrove loss slowed, and a minor net gain in global seagrass extent (∼1%) was estimated. Protection alone is therefore unlikely to drive sufficient recovery. However, if action is taken to both protect and restore, net gains of up to 5% and 35% of mangroves and seagrasses, respectively, could be achieved by 2050. Further, protection and restoration can be complementary, as protection prevents losses that would otherwise occur post-2050, highlighting the importance of implementing protection measures. Our findings provide the scientific evidence required for setting strategic and ambitious targets to inspire significant global investment and effort in mangrove and seagrass conservation.

Landsat historical records reveal large-scale dynamics and enduring recovery of seagrasses in an impacted seascape

Seagrasses are considered indicators of anthropogenic impact but surprisingly little is known about their temporal and spatial dynamics in impacted seascapes. In this study, we used three decades of Landsat imagery (1988-2018) off the coast of Adelaide, South Australia, to investigate how seagrass cover over 501 km² responds to changes in land-based inputs, including breakpoints in system trajectory and associated timelags, and the identification of vulnerable meadows. Field data was used to help train benthic classification of summer imagery and define its accuracy. Temporal dynamics of seagrass cover were investigated in relation to annual and multi-year nitrogen and suspended solids loads. Spatial dynamics were inferred from maps of benthic cover persistence and trajectory for each decade. The region experienced a net regrowth of some 11,000 ha of seagrasses since the early 2000s, with the initial large-scale recruitment visible in the imagery 6 years after the closure of sludge outfalls. Seagrass expansion occurred primarily in deeper waters (>10 m) of the central coast and at the seaward edge of the distribution. Recovery continued until 2011 assisted by a window of opportunity created by a decade-long drought and further reductions in nitrogen loads from wastewater treatment plants and industry. Localized seagrass losses however continued to be observed as a result of either permanent or transient increases in suspended solids loads. Seagrass area in the central coast was well correlated (r² = 0.88) with 5-year running averages of nitrogen and suspended solids loads. Meadows particularly vulnerable to changes in land-based discharges were located at the edges of the distribution, along erosional scarps and at depths >10 m south of the Torrens River. These areas were identified as useful indicators of seagrass status. Overall, seagrass persistence expanded from 48 to 69% of the mapped area, with the region now mostly covered by stable seagrasses.

Posidonia oceanica L. (Delile) meadows regression: Long-term affection may be induced by multiple impacts

Coastal development has an undeniable impact on marine ecosystems resulting in the detriment of the more sensible communities. Posidonia oceanica meadows are climax communities which offer a wide variety of ecosystem services both ecological and socio-economic. Human-derived impact on these habitats has been widely assessed although conclusions may vary depending on the area. P. oceanica meadow regression next to the city of Alicante (SE Spain) was analyzed on the long term (1984-2014) using bionomic cartographies and side-scan sonar images and, during the last two decades (2003-2021), using cover percentage and shoot density descriptors in the remaining meadow. Results showed a 25% colonized area reduction since 1984, this process being more rapid during the 1984-1994 period and decreasing with time. Cover and density have suffered a significant decrease in the last 20 years, mainly in the upper limit of the meadow. Dead matte cover was also assessed and have shown a significant increase in the same period following an inverse trend with the other metrics. There are several coastal impacts which have co-occurred in the area in the last few decades (port enlargement, brine and sewage discharges, industrial activity) thus resulting in the regression of the meadow. The existing negative trend of the measured descriptors indicate the necessity of implementing management actions which focus on the present sources of impact and actively reduce their effect on P. oceanica beds.

Anthropogenic pressures and life history predict trajectories of seagrass meadow extent at a global scale

Seagrass meadows are threatened by multiple pressures, jeopardizing the many benefits they provide to humanity and biodiversity, including climate regulation and food provision through fisheries production. Conservation of seagrass requires identification of the main pressures contributing to loss and the regions most at risk of ongoing loss. Here, we model trajectories of seagrass change at the global scale and show they are related to multiple anthropogenic pressures but that trajectories vary widely with seagrass life-history strategies. Rapidly declining trajectories of seagrass meadow extent (>25% loss from 2000 to 2010) were most strongly associated with high pressures from destructive demersal fishing and poor water quality. Conversely, seagrass meadow extent was more likely to be increasing when these two pressures were low. Meadows dominated by seagrasses with persistent life-history strategies tended to have slowly changing or stable trajectories, while those with opportunistic species were more variable, with a higher probability of either rapidly declining or rapidly increasing. Global predictions of regions most at risk for decline show high-risk areas in Europe, North America, Japan, and southeast Asia, including places where comprehensive long-term monitoring data are lacking. Our results highlight where seagrass loss may be occurring unnoticed and where urgent conservation interventions are required to reverse loss and sustain their essential services.