Quantifying contributions of natural variability and anthropogenic forcings on increased fire weather risk over the western United States

Atmospheric Concentrations and Potential Sources of Dioxin-Like Contaminants to Acadia National Park

Acadia National Park (ANP) is located on Mt. Desert Island, ME on the U.S. Atlantic coast. ANP is routinely a top-ten most popular National Park with over four million visits in 2022. The overall contribution and negative effects of long-range atmospheric transport and local sources of dioxin-like contaminants endangering natural and wildlife resources is unknown. Dioxin-like (DL) contaminants polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (∑PCDD) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (∑PCDF), non-ortho coplanar PCBs (∑CP4), and polychlorinated naphthalenes (∑PCNs) were measured at the McFarland Hill air monitoring station (44.37⁰N, 68.26⁰W). On a mass/volume basis, total PCNs averaged 90.9 % (788 fg/m3) of DL contaminants measured annually, with 92.9 % of the collected total in the vapor-phase. Alternatively, total dioxin/furans (∑PCDD/Fs) represented 71.6 % of the total toxic equivalence (∑TEQ) (1.018 fg-TEQ/m3), with 69.7 % in the particulate-phase. Maximum concentrations measured for individual sampling events for ∑PCDD/F, ∑CP4, and ∑PCN were 159 (winter), 139 (summer), and 2100 (autumn), fg/m3 respectively. Whereas the maximum ∑TEQ concentrations for individual sampling events for ∑PCDD/F, ∑CP4, and ∑PCN were 2.8 (autumn), 0.38 (summer), and 0.71 (autumn), fg-TEQ/m3 respectively. Pearson correlations were calculated for ∑PCDD/Fs and ∑PCN particulate/vapor-phase air concentrations and PM2.5 wood smoke "indicator" species. The most significant correlations were observed in autumn for particulate-phase ∑PCDD/Fs suggesting a relationship between visitation-generated combustion sources (campfires and/or waste burning) or climate-change mediated forest fires. Significant Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) correlations observed for particulate-phase ∑PCDDs (r2=0.567) as ambient temperatures decreased suggests a connection between localized domestic heating sources or visitor-based burning of wood/trash resources. Alternatively, highly significant C-C vapor-phase ∑CP4-PCBs correlations (r2=0.815) implies that the majority of ∑CP4-PCB loading to ANP is from long-range atmospheric transport processes. Based on these findings, Acadia National Park should be classified as a remote site with minor depositional impacts from ∑PCDD/Fs, ∑CP4-PCBs, and ∑PCN atmospheric transport or local diffuse sources.

Wildfire risk management in the era of climate change

The August 8, 2023R Lahaina fire refocused attention on wildfires, public alerts, and emergency management. Wildfire risk is on the rise, precipitated through a combination of climate change, increased development in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), decades of unmitigated biomass accumulation in forests, and a long history of emphasis on fire suppression over hazard mitigation. Stemming the tide of wildfire death and destruction will involve bringing together diverse scientific disciplines into policy. Renewed emphasis is needed on emergency alerts and community evacuations. Land management strategies need to account for the impact of climate change and hazard mitigation on forest ecosystems. Here, we propose a long-term strategy consisting of integrating wildfire risk management in wider-scope forest land management policies and strategies, and we discuss new technologies and possible scientific breakthroughs.

Key results from the salt lake regional smoke, ozone, and aerosol study (SAMOZA)

The Northern Wasatch Front area is one of ~ 50 metropolitan regions in the U.S. that do not meet the 2015 O3 standard. To better understand the causes of high O3 days in this region we conducted the Salt Lake regional Smoke, Ozone and Aerosol Study (SAMOZA) in the summer of 2022. The primary goals of SAMOZA were: Measure a suite of VOCs, by Proton Transfer Reaction Mass Spectrometry (PTR-MS) and the 2,4-dinitrophenylhydrazine (DNPH) cartridge method.Evaluate whether the standard UV O3 measurements made in SLC show a positive bias during smoke events, as has been suggested in some recent studies.Use the observations to conduct photochemical modeling and statistical/machine learning analyses to understand photochemistry on both smoke-influenced and non-smoke days.Implications: The Northern Wasatch Front area is one of ~50 metropolitan regions in the U.S. that do not meet the 2015 O3 standard. To better understand the causes of high O3 days in this region we conducted the Salt Lake regional Smoke, Ozone and Aerosol Study (SAMOZA) in the summer of 2022. A number of policy relevant findings are identified in the manuscript including role of smoke and NOx vs VOC sensitivity.

Impact of wildfire smoke on ozone concentrations using a Generalized Additive model in Salt Lake City, Utah, USA, 2006-2022

We investigated the impact of wildfires on maximum daily 8-hr average ozone concentrations (MDA8 O3) at four sites in Salt Lake City (SLC), Utah for May to September for 2006-2022. Smoke days, which were identified by a combination of overhead satellite smoke detection and surface PM2.5 data and accounted for approximately 9% of the total number of days, exhibited O3 levels 6.8 to 8.9 ppb higher than no-smoke days and were predominantly characterized by high daily maximum temperatures and low relative humidity. A Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was developed to quantify the impact of wildfire contributions to O3. The GAM, which provides smooth functions that make the interpretation of relationships more intuitive, employed 17 predictors and demonstrated reliable performance in various evaluation metrics. The mean of the residuals for all sites was approximately zero for the training and cross-validation data and 5.1 ppb for smoke days. We developed three approaches to estimate the contribution of smoke to O3 from the model residuals. These generate a minimum and maximum contribution for each smoke day. The average of the minimum and maximum wildfire contributions to O3 for the SLC sites was 5.1 and 8.5 ppb, respectively. Between 2006 and 2022, an increasing trend in the wildfire contributions to O3 was observed in SLC. Moreover, trends of the fourth-highest MDA8 O3 before and after removing the wildfire contributions to O3 at the SLC Hawthorne site in 2006-2022 were quite different. Whereas the unadjusted data do not meet the current O3 standard, after removing the contributions from wildfires the SLC region is close to achieving levels that are consistent with meeting the O3 standard. We also found that the wildfire contribution during smoke days was particularly high under conditions of high temperature, high PM2.5 concentration, and low cloud fraction.Implications: In this study, we quantified the impact of wildfires on maximum daily 8-hr average ozone concentrations (MDA8 O3) in Salt Lake City, Utah, using a Generalized Additive Model (GAM). The GAM results demonstrate the importance of wildfires as contributors to O3 air pollution. Our results suggest that states could use the GAM approach to assist in quantifying the wildfire contribution to MDA8 O3 under the U.S. EPA exceptional events rule. These findings also highlight the need for strategies to manage wildfires and their subsequent impacts on air quality in an era of climate warming.

Storyline attribution of human influence on a record-breaking spatially compounding flood-heat event

Attribution of compound events informs preparedness for emerging hazards with disproportionate impacts. However, the task remains challenging because space-time interactions among extremes and uncertain dynamic changes are not satisfactorily addressed in the well-established attribution framework. For attributing the 2020 record-breaking spatially compounding flood-heat event in China, we conduct a storyline attribution analysis by designing simulation experiments via a weather forecast model, quantifying component-based attributable changes, and comparing with historical flow analogs. We quantify that given the large-scale circulation, anthropogenic influence to date has exacerbated the extreme Mei-yu rainfall in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River during June-July 2020 by ~6.5% and warmed the co-occurring seasonal extreme heat in South China by ~1°C. Our projections show a further intensification of the compound event by the end of this century, with moderate emissions making the rainfall totals ~14% larger and the season ~2.1°C warmer in South China than the 2020 status.

Climate predicts wildland fire extent across China

Wildland fire extent varies seasonally and interannually in response to climatic and landscape-level drivers, yet predicting wildfires remains a challenge. Existing linear models that characterize climate and wildland fire relationships fail to account for non-stationary and non-linear associations, thus limiting prediction accuracy. To account for non-stationary and non-linear effects, we use time-series climate and wildfire extent data from across China with unit root methods, thus providing an approach for improved wildfire prediction. Results from this approach suggest that wildland area burned is sensitive to vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and maximum temperature changes over short and long-term scenarios. Moreover, repeated fires constrain system variability resulting in non-stationarity responses. We conclude that an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to dynamic simulation models better elucidates interactions between climate and wildfire compared to more commonly used linear models. We suggest that this approach will provide insights into a better understanding of complex ecological relationships and represents a significant step toward the development of guidance for regional planners hoping to address climate-driven increases in wildfire incidence and impacts.

Chemical tracers for Wildfires-Analysis of runoff surface Water by LC/Q-TOF-MS

A quantitative methodology using high resolution mass spectrometry was developed for the identification of organic compounds derived from wildfires in surface water samples. The methodology involves the use of solid-phase extraction (SPE) followed by detection using liquid chromatography-quadrupole time of flight-mass spectrometry (LC/Q-TOF-MS) for a group of fourteen chemical compounds (pyridine, benzene, naphthalene and biphenyl polycarboxylic acids). All compounds were successfully separated chromatographically using a reversed phase column and they were identified by accurate mass using the deprotonated species and their main fragment ions. The method produced excellent accuracies (>95%) and precisions (3-10%) for all the compounds studied. This methodology was successfully applied to the identification of fourteen compounds in runoff surface waters impacted by wildfires in Colorado in 2020. Concentrations of individual compounds ranging from 0.1 to 59.5 μg/L were found in wildfire impacted waters, with totals of ∼200 μg/L, thus showing these compounds as chemical tracers of wildfire events at significantly high concentrations. In addition, non-target analysis using chromatography patterns and mass spectrometry identification by MS-MS revealed other polycarboxylic acid isomers were also present in runoff surface water samples.

The contribution of wildfire to PM2.5 trends in the USA

Steady improvements in ambient air quality in the USA over the past several decades, in part a result of public policy1,2, have led to public health benefits1-4. However, recent trends in ambient concentrations of particulate matter with diameters less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5), a pollutant regulated under the Clean Air Act1, have stagnated or begun to reverse throughout much of the USA5. Here we use a combination of ground- and satellite-based air pollution data from 2000 to 2022 to quantify the contribution of wildfire smoke to these PM2.5 trends. We find that since at least 2016, wildfire smoke has influenced trends in average annual PM2.5 concentrations in nearly three-quarters of states in the contiguous USA, eroding about 25% of previous multi-decadal progress in reducing PM2.5 concentrations on average in those states, equivalent to 4 years of air quality progress, and more than 50% in many western states. Smoke influence on trends in the number of days with extreme PM2.5 concentrations is detectable by 2011, but the influence can be detected primarily in western and mid-western states. Wildfire-driven increases in ambient PM2.5 concentrations are unregulated under current air pollution law6 and, in the absence of further interventions, we show that the contribution of wildfire to regional and national air quality trends is likely to grow as the climate continues to warm.

Climate warming increases extreme daily wildfire growth risk in California

California has experienced enhanced extreme wildfire behaviour in recent years1-3, leading to substantial loss of life and property4,5. Some portion of the change in wildfire behaviour is attributable to anthropogenic climate warming, but formally quantifying this contribution is difficult because of numerous confounding factors6,7 and because wildfires are below the grid scale of global climate models. Here we use machine learning to quantify empirical relationships between temperature (as well as the influence of temperature on aridity) and the risk of extreme daily wildfire growth (>10,000 acres) in California and find that the influence of temperature on the risk is primarily mediated through its influence on fuel moisture. We use the uncovered relationships to estimate the changes in extreme daily wildfire growth risk under anthropogenic warming by subjecting historical fires from 2003 to 2020 to differing background climatological temperatures and aridity conditions. We find that the influence of anthropogenic warming on the risk of extreme daily wildfire growth varies appreciably on a fire-by-fire and day-by-day basis, depending on whether or not climate warming pushes conditions over certain thresholds of aridity, such as 1.5 kPa of vapour-pressure deficit and 10% dead fuel moisture. So far, anthropogenic warming has enhanced the aggregate expected frequency of extreme daily wildfire growth by 25% (5-95 range of 14-36%), on average, relative to preindustrial conditions. But for some fires, there was approximately no change, and for other fires, the enhancement has been as much as 461%. When historical fires are subjected to a range of projected end-of-century conditions, the aggregate expected frequency of extreme daily wildfire growth events increases by 59% (5-95 range of 47-71%) under a low SSP1-2.6 emissions scenario compared with an increase of 172% (5-95 range of 156-188%) under a very high SSP5-8.5 emissions scenario, relative to preindustrial conditions.

New insights into the biology and development of lung cancer in never smokers-implications for early detection and treatment

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Despite never smokers comprising between 10 and 25% of all cases, lung cancer in never smokers (LCNS) is relatively under characterized from an etiological and biological perspective. The application of multi-omics techniques on large patient cohorts has significantly advanced the current understanding of LCNS tumor biology. By synthesizing the findings of multi-omics studies on LCNS from a clinical perspective, we can directly translate knowledge regarding tumor biology into implications for patient care. Primarily focused on never smokers with lung adenocarcinoma, this review details the predominance of driver mutations, particularly in East Asian patients, as well as the frequency and importance of germline variants in LCNS. The mutational patterns present in LCNS tumors are thoroughly explored, highlighting the high abundance of the APOBEC signature. Moreover, this review recognizes the spectrum of immune profiles present in LCNS tumors and posits how it can be translated to treatment selection. The recurring and novel insights from multi-omics studies on LCNS tumor biology have a wide range of clinical implications. Risk factors such as exposure to outdoor air pollution, second hand smoke, and potentially diet have a genomic imprint in LCNS at varying degrees, and although they do not encompass all LCNS cases, they can be leveraged to stratify risk. Germline variants similarly contribute to a notable proportion of LCNS, which warrants detailed documentation of family history of lung cancer among never smokers and demonstrates value in developing testing for pathogenic variants in never smokers for early detection in the future. Molecular driver subtypes and specific co-mutations and mutational signatures have prognostic value in LCNS and can guide treatment selection. LCNS tumors with no known driver alterations tend to be stem-like and genes contributing to this state may serve as potential therapeutic targets. Overall, the comprehensive findings of multi-omics studies exert a wide influence on clinical management and future research directions in the realm of LCNS.

Effect of biomass burning on premature mortality associated with long-term exposure to PM2.5 in Equatorial Asia

The health burden from exposure to ambient fine particulates (PM_2.5) in Equatorial Asia is substantially affected by the peatland fires in Indonesia, but the long-term health effect of the fires on local inhabitants is unclear. In this study, PM_2.5-associated excess mortality in Equatorial Asia over the past 30 years (1990-2019) was estimated and then the health effect of biomass burning was identified. The PM_2.5-related death in Equatorial Asia almost tripled from 113 (95% confidence interval, 100-125) thousand in 1990 to 337 (300-373) thousand in 2019, with a rate of increase of 6.4 (6.2-6.9) thousand/yr. The intense biomass burning between 1990 and 2019 was estimated to have induced 317 (282-348) thousand excess deaths in the study regions, with excess deaths mainly occurring in the El Niño years, such as in 1997, 2006, 2015 and 2019. Although the remote sensing data and emission inventories both reveal that the effective control measures have reduced biomass burning intensity in Equatorial Asia (especially in Sumatra and Borneo), the corresponding health benefit has been offset by variations in demographic factors, i.e., population and age structure. Over the same period, fossil fuel emissions continued to increase rapidly. Thus, more stringent and ambitious policies are required to reduce the health burden from biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions simultaneously to maximize the health benefits from government measures and policies.

Denis LA. Shifting social-ecological fire regimes explain increasing structure loss from Western wildfires

Structure loss is an acute, costly impact of the wildfire crisis in the western conterminous United States ("West"), motivating the need to understand recent trends and causes. We document a 246% rise in West-wide structure loss from wildfires between 1999-2009 and 2010-2020, driven strongly by events in 2017, 2018, and 2020. Increased structure loss was not due to increased area burned alone. Wildfires became significantly more destructive, with a 160% higher structure-loss rate (loss/kha burned) over the past decade. Structure loss was driven primarily by wildfires from unplanned human-related ignitions (e.g. backyard burning, power lines, etc.), which accounted for 76% of all structure loss and resulted in 10 times more structures destroyed per unit area burned compared with lightning-ignited fires. Annual structure loss was well explained by area burned from human-related ignitions, while decadal structure loss was explained by state-level structure abundance in flammable vegetation. Both predictors increased over recent decades and likely interacted with increased fuel aridity to drive structure-loss trends. While states are diverse in patterns and trends, nearly all experienced more burning from human-related ignitions and/or higher structure-loss rates, particularly California, Washington, and Oregon. Our findings highlight how fire regimes-characteristics of fire over space and time-are fundamentally social-ecological phenomena. By resolving the diversity of Western fire regimes, our work informs regionally appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies. With millions of structures with high fire risk, reducing human-related ignitions and rethinking how we build are critical for preventing future wildfire disasters.

Widespread Wildfires Over the Western United States in 2020 Linked to Emissions Reductions During COVID-19

Widespread wildfires struck the western United States in 2020, damaging properties and threating human lives. Meanwhile, the COVID-19 pandemic spread across the globe, which disrupted human activities. Here, we investigate the effects of the emissions reductions during the pandemic on fire weather in 2020 over the western United States by using an earth system model together with observations. We show that reductions in aerosols dominate the increases in wildfire risks, whereas greenhouse gas decrease counteracts this influence. The aerosol emissions reductions increased surface air temperature and decreased precipitation and relative humidity due to a weakened moisture transport, which explains one-third of the observed increase in wildfire risks during August-November over the western United States in 2020. This study suggests that COVID-19-related emissions reductions have an unexpected influence on wildfires, highlighting a different but important role of human activities in affecting wildfire risks.

Evaluating Effects of Post-Fire Climate and Burn Severity on the Early-Term Regeneration of Forest and Shrub Communities in the San Gabriel Mountains of California from Sentinel-2(MSI) Images

Studying the early changes in post-fire vegetation communities may improve the overall resilience of forests. The necessity for doing so was demonstrated by the Bobcat Fire, which seriously threatened the central San Gabriel Mountains and the Angeles National Forest in California. This study aimed to monitor and quantify the effects of climatological and topographic conditions along with burn severity on early (within 1 year) post-fire forests and shrubs community regeneration. In this study, we used Sentinel-2(MSI) intensive time-series imagery (July 2020–October 2021) to make a confusion matrix combined with 389 vegetation sample points on Google Earth Pro. The overall accuracy (OA) and the Kappa coefficient, calculated from the confusion matrix, were used as evaluation parameters to validate the classification results. With multiple linear regression models and Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) historical images, we analyzed the effects of climate and slope aspects on the regeneration of post-fire forest and shrub communities. We also quantitatively analyzed the regeneration rates based on five burn severity types. The results show that the normalized burning rate (NBR) was the most accurate vegetation classification indicator in this study (OA: 92.3–99.5%, Kappa: 0.88–0.98). The vegetation classification accuracy based on SVM is about 6.6% higher than K-Means. The overall accuracy of the burn area is 94.87%. Post-fire climate factors had a significant impact on the regeneration of the two vegetation communities (R2: 0.42–0.88); the optimal regeneration slope was 15–35°; and the fire severity changed the original competition relationship and regeneration rate. The results provide four main insights into the regeneration of post-fire vegetation communities: (1) climate factors in the first regenerating season have important impacts on the regeneration of forest and shrub communities; (2) daytime duration and rainfall are the most significant factors for forests and shrubs regeneration; (3) tolerable low burn severity promotes forests regeneration; and (4) forests have a certain ability to resist fires, while shrubs can better tolerate high-intensity fire ecology. This study could support the implementation of strategies for regionalized forest management and the targeted enhancement of post-fire vegetation community resilience.

Reimagine fire science for the anthropocene

Fire is an integral component of ecosystems globally and a tool that humans have harnessed for millennia. Altered fire regimes are a fundamental cause and consequence of global change, impacting people and the biophysical systems on which they depend. As part of the newly emerging Anthropocene, marked by human-caused climate change and radical changes to ecosystems, fire danger is increasing, and fires are having increasingly devastating impacts on human health, infrastructure, and ecosystem services. Increasing fire danger is a vexing problem that requires deep transdisciplinary, trans-sector, and inclusive partnerships to address. Here, we outline barriers and opportunities in the next generation of fire science and provide guidance for investment in future research. We synthesize insights needed to better address the long-standing challenges of innovation across disciplines to (i) promote coordinated research efforts; (ii) embrace different ways of knowing and knowledge generation; (iii) promote exploration of fundamental science; (iv) capitalize on the "firehose" of data for societal benefit; and (v) integrate human and natural systems into models across multiple scales. Fire science is thus at a critical transitional moment. We need to shift from observation and modeled representations of varying components of climate, people, vegetation, and fire to more integrative and predictive approaches that support pathways toward mitigating and adapting to our increasingly flammable world, including the utilization of fire for human safety and benefit. Only through overcoming institutional silos and accessing knowledge across diverse communities can we effectively undertake research that improves outcomes in our more fiery future.

Drought assessment has been outpaced by climate change: empirical arguments for a paradigm shift

Despite the acceleration of climate change, erroneous assumptions of climate stationarity are still inculcated in the management of water resources in the United States (US). The US system for drought detection, which triggers billions of dollars in emergency resources, adheres to this assumption with preference towards 60-year (or longer) record lengths for drought characterization. Using observed data from 1,934 Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) sites across the US, we show that conclusions based on long climate records can substantially bias assessment of drought severity. Bias emerges by assuming that conditions from the early and mid 20th century are as likely to occur in today’s climate. Numerical simulations reveal that drought assessment error is relatively low with limited climatology lengths (~30 year) and that error increases with longer record lengths where climate is changing rapidly. We assert that non-stationarity in climate must be accounted for in contemporary assessments to more accurately portray present drought risk.

Climate has changed over the last century, yet this change is seldom accounted for in drought assessment. This study quantifies drought bias due to climate change and suggests adjustment to align monitoring with contemporary risk.

Climate change increases risk of extreme rainfall following wildfire in the western United States

Post-wildfire extreme rainfall events can have destructive impacts in the western United States. Using two climate model large ensembles, we assess the future risk of extreme fire weather events being followed by extreme rainfall in this region. By mid-21st century, in a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), we report large increases in the number of extreme fire weather events followed within 1 year by at least one extreme rainfall event. By 2100, the frequency of these compound events increases by 100% in California and 700% in the Pacific Northwest in the Community Earth System Model v1 Large Ensemble. We further project that more than 90% of extreme fire weather events in California, Colorado, and the Pacific Northwest will be followed by at least three spatially colocated extreme rainfall events within five years. Our results point to a future with substantially increased post-fire hydrologic risks across much of the western United States.

U.S. fires became larger, more frequent, and more widespread in the 2000s

Recent fires have fueled concerns that regional and global warming trends are leading to more extreme burning. We found compelling evidence that average fire events in regions of the United States are up to four times the size, triple the frequency, and more widespread in the 2000s than in the previous two decades. Moreover, the most extreme fires are also larger, more common, and more likely to co-occur with other extreme fires. This documented shift in burning patterns across most of the country aligns with the palpable change in fire dynamics noted by the media, public, and fire-fighting officials.

Rapid Growth of Large Forest Fires Drives the Exponential Response of Annual Forest-Fire Area to Aridity in the Western United States

Annual forest area burned (AFAB) in the western United States (US) has increased as a positive exponential function of rising aridity in recent decades. This non-linear response has important implications for AFAB in a changing climate, yet the cause of the exponential AFAB-aridity relationship has not been given rigorous attention. We investigated the exponential AFAB-aridity relationship in western US forests using a new 1984-2019 database of fire events and 2001-2020 satellite-based records of daily fire growth. While forest-fire frequency and duration grow linearly with aridity, the exponential AFAB-aridity relationship results from the exponential growth rates of individual fires. Larger fires generally have more potential for growth due to more extensive firelines. Thus, forces that promote fire growth, such as aridification, have more potent effects on larger fires. As aridity increases linearly, the potential for growth of large fires accelerates, leading to exponential increases in AFAB.