Age-dependent extinction and the neutral theory of biodiversity

The fate of South America's endemic mammalian fauna in response to the most dramatic Cenozoic climate disruption

Around 34 Mya, the Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT) marked the most dramatic global climatic cooling of the Cenozoic. On a planetary scale, paleontological evidence suggests that this transition was associated with major faunal turnovers, sometimes even regarded as a mass extinction crisis. In South America, there is no consensus on the response of the endemic mammals to this transition. Here, using a vetted fossil dataset and cutting-edge Bayesian methods, we analyzed the dynamics of South American mammal (SAM) diversification and their possible drivers across latitude (tropical vs. extratropical), taxonomic groups, and trophic guilds throughout the Eocene-Oligocene (ca. 56 to 23 Ma). Our results did not evidence any mass extinction among SAM at the EOT. Instead, they experienced a gradual and long-term diversity decline from the middle Eocene to the early Oligocene, followed by a sudden waxing-and-waning diversity associated with a large taxonomic-but not ecological-turnover. Tropical and extratropical lineages have had very distinct macroevolutionary histories. No effective change in the pace at which tropical lineages diversify was found, thus favoring the tropical stability hypothesis proposed by Wallace. Diversity-dependent effects, temperature, and Andean uplift were recovered as probable drivers of SAM diversification across the period. Contrasting evidence casts doubt on the common hypothesis primarily linking Oligocene faunal changes to grassland expansion. Our findings illustrate the uniqueness of the deep-time interplay between endemic SAM and their physical environment in a context of climatic shift, highlighting the need to consider regional idiosyncrasies for understanding the coevolution of life and climate.

Coevolution-induced selection for and against phenotypic novelty shapes species richness in clade co-diversification

Coevolution can occur because of species interactions. However, it remains unclear how coevolutionary processes translate into the accumulation of species richness over macroevolutionary timescales. Assuming speciation occurs as a result of genetic differentiation across space due to dispersal limitation, we examine the effects of coevolution-induced phenotypic selection on species diversification. Based on the idea that dispersers often carry novel phenotypes, we propose and test two hypotheses. (1) Stability hypothesis: selection against phenotypic novelty enhances species diversification by strengthening dispersal limitation. (2) Novelty hypothesis: selection for phenotypic novelty impedes species diversification by weakening dispersal limitation. We simulate clade co-diversification using an individual-based model, considering scenarios where phenotypic selection is shaped by neutral dynamics, mutualistic coevolution, or antagonistic coevolution, where coevolution operates through trait matching or trait difference, and where the strength of coevolutionary selection is symmetrical or asymmetrical. Our key assumption that interactions occur between an independent party (whose individuals can establish or persist independently, e.g., hosts) and a dependent party (whose individuals cannot establish or persist independently, for example, parasites or obligate mutualists) yields two contrasting results. The stability hypothesis is supported in the dependent clade but not in the independent clade. Conversely, the novelty hypothesis is supported in the independent clade but not in the dependent clade. These results are partially corroborated by empirical dispersal data, suggesting that these mechanisms might potentially explain the diversification of some of the most species-rich clades in the Tree of Life.

Scaling approaches and macroecology provide a foundation for assessing ecological resilience in the Anthropocene

In the Anthropocene, intensifying ecological disturbances pose significant challenges to our predictive capabilities for ecosystem responses. Macroecology-which focuses on emergent statistical patterns in ecological systems-unveils consistent regularities in the organization of biodiversity and ecosystems. These regularities appear in terms of abundance, body size, geographical range, species interaction networks, or the flux of matter and energy. This paper argues for moving beyond qualitative resilience metaphors, such as the 'ball and cup', towards a more quantitative macroecological framework. We suggest a conceptual and theoretical basis for ecological resilience that integrates macroecology with a stochastic diffusion approximation constrained by principles of biological symmetry. This approach provides an alternative novel framework for studying ecological resilience in the Anthropocene. We demonstrate how our framework can effectively quantify the impacts of major disturbances and their extensive ecological ramifications. We further show how biological scaling insights can help quantify the consequences of major disturbances, emphasizing their cascading ecological impacts. The nature of these impacts prompts a re-evaluation of our understanding of resilience. Emphasis on regularities of ecological assemblages can help illuminate resilience dynamics and offer a novel basis to predict and manage the impacts of disturbance in the Anthropocene more efficiently. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.