Road crash trends for young drivers in New South Wales, Australia, from 1997 to 2007

Involvement of Road Users from the Productive Age Group in Traffic Crashes in Saudi Arabia: An Investigative Study Using Statistical and Machine Learning Techniques

Road traffic crashes (RTCs) are a major problem for authorities and governments worldwide. They incur losses of property, human lives, and productivity. The involvement of teenage drivers and road users is alarmingly prevalent in RTCs since traffic injuries unduly impact the working-age group (15–44 years). Therefore, research on young people’s engagement in RTCs is vital due to its relevance and widespread frequency. Thus, this study focused on evaluating the factors that influence the frequency and severity of RTCs involving adolescent road users aged 15 to 44 in fatal and significant injury RTCs in Al-Ahsa, Saudi Arabia. In this study, firstly, descriptive analyses were performed to justify the target age group analysis. Then, prediction models employing logistic regression and CART were created to study the RTC characteristics impacting the target age group participation in RTCs. The most commonly observed types of crashes are vehicle collisions, followed by multiple-vehicle and pedestrian crashes. Despite its low frequency, the study area has a high severity index for RTCs, where 73% of severe RTCs include individuals aged 15 to 44. Crash events with a large number of injured victims and fatalities are more likely to involve people in the target age range, according to logistic regression and CART models. The CART model also suggests that vehicle overturn RTCs involving victims in the target age range are more likely to occur as a result of driver distraction, speeding, not giving way, or rapid turning. As compared with the logistic regression model, the CART model was more convenient and accurate for understanding the trends and predicting the involvement probability of the target age group in RTCs; however, this model requires a higher processing time for its development.

Identifying Interactive Factors That May Increase Crash Risk between Young Drivers and Trucks: A Narrative Review

Sharing the road with trucks is associated with increased risk of serious injury and death for passenger vehicle drivers. However, the onus for minimising risk lies not just with truck drivers; other drivers must understand the unique performance limitations of trucks associated with stopping distances, blind spots, and turning manoeuverability, so they can suitably act and react around trucks. Given the paucity of research aimed at understanding the specific crash risk vulnerability of young drivers around trucks, the authors employ a narrative review methodology that brings together evidence from both truck and young driver road safety research domains, as well as data regarding known crash risks for each driving cohort, to gain a comprehensive understanding of what young drivers are likely to know about heavy vehicle performance limitations, where there may be gaps in their understanding, and how this could potentially increase crash risk. We then review literature regarding the human factors affecting young drivers to understand how perceptual immaturity and engagement in risky driving behaviours are likely to compound risk regarding both the frequency and severity of collision between trucks and young drivers. Finally, we review current targeted educational initiatives and suggest that simply raising awareness of truck limitations is insufficient. We propose that further research is needed to ensure initiatives aimed at increasing young driver awareness of trucks and truck safety are evidence-based, undergo rigorous evaluation, and are delivered in a way that aims to (i) increase young driver risk perception skills, and (ii) reduce risky driving behaviour around trucks.

Impacts of graduated driver licensing regulations

We evaluate the impact of the Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) system introduced in Victoria, Australia as they influence both injury and fatality rates. Since 1990, the Victorian GDL scheme has undergone several modifications including the introduction of new requirements and the stricter enforcement of existing regulations. Our evaluation of the GDL is based on monthly mortality and morbidity data for drivers 18-25 for the period January 2000 to June 2017. We estimate the immediate and long-term impacts of each policy change to the GDL system. Our results indicate that several initiatives in the GDL system have had impacts on both fatalities and injuries requiring hospitalisation when differentiated by gender. In a number of cases we observe that reactions to these measures are common to both genders. These include: the signalling of the proposed GDL changes in the media, the introduction of an extra probationary year for those under 21, the total alcohol ban for the entire probationary period, and limits on peer passengers for the first year. Stricter mobile phone restrictions appear to have had no impact on injuries for either males or females although they were associated with lower fatality rates for both. In addition, we found an indication that in the period prior to the introduction of the mandatory requirement of 120 h supervised driving, there was a rise in male driver injuries possibly caused by a rush of more inexperienced learners to obtain their probationary licence.

The impact of changes to the NSW graduated driver licensing system on subsequent crash and offense experience

INTRODUCTION

In mid-2007 the State of New South Wales (NSW) in Australia introduced modifications to the existing graduated driver licensing system, lengthening the mandatory number of supervised hours for learner drivers aged under 25 years from 50 to 120 and extending the minimum learner period from 6 to 12 months. Additional driving restrictions were also introduced for young drivers in the two provisional licensed periods, P1, P2. This paper aims to evaluate this change by comparing the crash and offense experiences of young learner drivers before and after it occurred.

METHOD

From driver licensing files supplied by the NSW transport authority two cohorts of persons obtaining their initial learner's permits in the year prior to the changes and in the subsequent year were constructed with demographic data, dates of transition to the driving phases, dates of crashes, and dates and types of traffic offenses. Both cohorts comprised around 100,000 individuals. Crash rates per 100 years of person-time under observation post P1 with their standard errors were calculated. Using a survival-analytic approach the proportion of crashes of all types were graphed in three month periods post P1. Sexes were treated separately as were initial learner ages of 16, 17, 18-21, and 22-24 years. The distribution of traffic offense types during P1 and P2 phases were also compared. With such large numbers formal statistical testing was avoided.

RESULTS

No meaningful differences in the crash or offense experiences of the two cohorts in either sex or at any age were observed. Delaying progress to unsupervised driving has road safety benefits.

CONCLUSIONS

At least in conditions similar to those in NSW, requiring more than 50 h of supervised driving seems to have few road safety benefits. Practical applications: Licensing authorities should be cautious in extending the mandated number of supervised driving hours beyond 50.

Comparison of novice and full-licenced driver common crash types in New South Wales, Australia, 2001-2011

OBJECTIVE

To examine the circumstances of passenger vehicle crashes for novice licenced drivers aged 17-25 years and to compare the crash circumstances of the most common crash types for novices to a sample of full-licence drivers aged 40-49 years.

METHOD

A retrospective analysis was conducted of passenger vehicle crashes involving novice and full-licenced drivers during 1 January 2001 to 31 December 2011 in New South Wales (NSW), Australia.

RESULTS

There were 4113 injurious crashes of novice drivers. Almost half the novice driver crashes involved a single vehicle. Vehicle speed (33.2%), fatigue (15.6%) and alcohol (12.6%) were identified risk factors in novice driver crashes. Correspondence analysis for 4 common crash types for novice drivers revealed that the crash characteristics between novice and full-licenced drivers were similar.

CONCLUSIONS

Similarities exist between novice driver and full-licenced driver crash risk for common crash types. Preventive strategies aimed at crash risk reduction for novice drivers may also benefit all drivers.

Epidemiology of road traffic incidents in Peru 1973-2008: incidence, mortality, and fatality

BACKGROUND

The epidemiological profile and trends of road traffic injuries (RTIs) in Peru have not been well-defined, though this is a necessary step to address this significant public health problem in Peru. The objective of this study was to determine trends of incidence, mortality, and fatality of RTIs in Peru during 1973-2008, as well as their relationship to population trends such as economic growth.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Secondary aggregated databases were used to estimate incidence, mortality and fatality rate ratios (IRRs) of RTIs. These estimates were standardized to age groups and sex of the 2008 Peruvian population. Negative binomial regression and cubic spline curves were used for multivariable analysis. During the 35-year period there were 952,668 road traffic victims, injured or killed. The adjusted yearly incidence of RTIs increased by 3.59 (95% CI 2.43-5.31) on average. We did not observe any significant trends in the yearly mortality rate. The total adjusted yearly fatality rate decreased by 0.26 (95% CI 0.15-0.43), while among adults the fatality rate increased by 1.25 (95% CI 1.09-1.43). Models fitted with splines suggest that the incidence follows a bimodal curve and closely followed trends in the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita.

CONCLUSIONS

The significant increasing incidence of RTIs in Peru affirms their growing threat to public health. A substantial improvement of information systems for RTIs is needed to create a more accurate epidemiologic profile of RTIs in Peru. This approach can be of use in other similar low and middle-income settings to inform about the local challenges posed by RTIs.

Road safety from the perspective of driver gender and age as related to the injury crash frequency and road scenario

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this research is to develop safety performance functions (SPFs) on 2-lane rural roads to predict the number of injury crashes per year per 10(8) vehicles/km on the road segment using a study on the influence of the human factors (gender, age, number of drivers) and road scenario (combination of infrastructure and environmental conditions found at the site at the time of the crash) on the effects of a crash by varying the dynamic. Countermeasures are suggested to reduce the injury crash rate and include different awareness campaigns and structural measures on the segments of road.

METHODS

An 8-year period was analyzed for which 5 years of crash information were used to calibrate and specify SPFs and the remaining 3 years were used to check the reliability of the equations. Before moving to the calibration phase, a technique to filter anomalous injury crash rates was adopted by using a method widely used in geotechnical engineering that is based on estimates of ranges of values that can be considered fluctuations of the "regular" measures compared to values estimated as "abnormal" for each homogeneous scenario. Due to overdispersion of crash data, generalized estimating equations and additional log linkage equation were adopted to calibrate SPFs. The Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion were used to check the reliability of the models.

RESULTS

Six SPFs were calibrated: for head-on/side collisions, one equation was built for circular curves and one for tangent segments; for rear-end collisions, one equation was built for daylight and one for the hours of darkness; for single-vehicle run-off-road crashes, one equation was built for wet road surface conditions and one for dry road surface conditions. An original numerical variable, SLEH, was designed to calibrate safety models reflecting the identified road surface (dry/wet), light conditions (day/night), geometric element (tangent segment/circular curve), and human factors (gender/age/number drivers) all together when the crash occurred, as provided by related police reports. The validation procedure succeeded. It emerged that males and females are involved in crashes of varying degrees of frequency, depending on the driving scenario that presents itself and the gender of the other drivers involved in the crash. Several different dangerous scenarios were identified: only female drivers on a dry road surface in daylight on tangent segments increased the risk for head-on/side collisions; only male drivers on a wet road surface in daylight on circular curves increased the risk for single-vehicle crashes; and crashes involving both female and male drivers on a dry road surface in daylight on a circular curve increased the risk for head-on/side collisions.

CONCLUSION

According to the current study, based on the network approach for the allocation of economic resources and planning of road safety strategies, calibration of injury crash rate prediction models for specific target collision type is important because of the range of harms that are caused by different collision types. From these studies it is apparent that the age and gender of drivers considered together further refines how those factors contribute to crashes. Countermeasures (structural road interventions and/or safety awareness campaigns) can be planned to reduce the highest rate of injury crash for each gender and road scenario: the awareness campaigns cannot be generalized or vague but must be organized by age and gender, because this study shows that crash dynamics alter as these factors change, with consideration for the varying psychological traits of the driver groups. Before-and-after safety evaluations can be used to check the safety benefits of improvements carried out on the roadways, within budget constraints for improvement or safety compliance investments for future operation. Supplemental materials are available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of Traffic Injury Prevention to view the supplemental file.

The perceptions of young rural drivers in NSW, Australia of speeding and associated risk: a mixed methods study

The study, using mixed methodology, examined perceptions of risk associated with speeding in young rural people. Focus groups discussions (age range 16-24) in which speeding was identified as often being an involuntary driving behaviour, informed the development of a survey instrument. The survey was conducted with two groups of young people, one rural (n=217) and another semi-rural (n=235). The results from both the focus groups and surveys indicate that young rural drivers had specific attitudes to speeding, when compared with other risk factors for crashing. Speeding behaviour was viewed as both acceptable and inevitable. Males and those from a rural area viewed speeding, and reducing trip time when compared to that of a peer, to be less risky than did females and those who lived in a semi-rural area. Speeding was considered to be less risky than drink driving. These perceptions of speeding may contribute to the crash rates on rural roads involving young, local drivers and need to be considered in interventions or educational programmes which aim to reduce the rural road crash rate.

Reductions in transport mortality in Australia: evidence of a public health success

OBJECTIVE

To describe trends in transport mortality for a range of common transport types in Australia over a 30-year period (1975-1977 to 2005-2007).

METHODS

Mortality data on all-cause and transport-related causes of death were supplied by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW). Mortality rates, expected number of deaths and probabilities of death were compared for three time periods: 1975-1977, 1990-1992 and 2005-2007.

RESULTS

There were significant decreasing trends between 1975-1977 and 2005-2007 in all-cause and most other transport mortality types for both men and women. There were significant reductions in the contribution of transport-related mortality to all-cause mortality; however the difference in mortality between men and women (higher for men) changed little over the evaluated period.

CONCLUSIONS

Between 1975-1977 and 2005-2007 there were marked reductions in key causes of transport-related mortality amongst Australian adults, and the reductions in transport-related mortality exceeded reductions in all-cause mortality. The reductions could be attributed to better preventive measures and improved medical treatment for people involved in transport crashes. Although there is scope for further improvement, the reductions are evidence of a success in the prevention of crashes and the medical treatment of crash victims.

Early driving experience and influence on risk perception in young rural people

Young people, particularly males and those from a rural area, are over represented in road crashes; this occurs in vehicle dependent countries around the world, including Australia. The attitudes, experiences and behaviours of young drivers are some of the key factors which affect their potential to have an early on road driving experience that is crash free. This paper considers the views of young people, some of whom were brought up on rural properties, and had significant, responsible roles in agricultural work, including task related driving from a very early age. This early responsibility and associated awareness of risk of injury in farm related tasks can affect risk perception and impact on later risk taking behaviours. Ten focus groups were conducted with young people attending schools in four towns in rural New South Wales, Australia. These were recorded and analysed using qualitative methodology. The results indicate that risk factors in driving, on and off road, are clearly identified and understood; the majority of young people in rural areas are not "high" risk takers or sensation seekers. They also indicate that, in rural NSW, early vehicle handling, before the age for obtaining a license for driving on roads, is customary practice within the community. Attitudes towards speeding, however, reflect that it is tolerable behaviour, and almost inevitable, and often not considered to be risky. Drink driving is considered more risky, and less acceptable, at both the personal and community levels. Future intervention strategies to reduce crash rates in young rural drivers should aim to address the attitudes and actions associated with speeding on rural roads.

Using Crash Data to Develop Simulator Scenarios for Assessing Novice Driver Performance

Teenage drivers are at their highest crash risk in their first 6 months or first 1,000 mi of driving. Driver training, adult-supervised practice driving, and other interventions are aimed at improving driving performance in novice drivers. Previous driver training programs have enumerated thousands of scenarios, with each scenario requiring one or more skills. Although there is general agreement about the broad set of skills needed to become a competent driver, there is no consensus set of scenarios and skills to assess whether novice drivers are likely to crash or to assess the effects of novice driver training programs on the likelihood of a crash. The authors propose that a much narrower, common set of scenarios can be used to focus on the high-risk crashes of young drivers. Until recently, it was not possible to identify the detailed set of scenarios that were specific to high-risk crashes. However, an integration of police crash reports from previous research, a number of critical simulator studies, and a nationally representative database of serious teen crashes (the National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey) now make identification of these scenarios possible. In this paper, the authors propose this novel approach and discuss how to create a common set of simulated scenarios and skills to assess novice driver performance and the effects of training and interventions as they relate to high-risk crashes.

Fatal crash trends for Australian young drivers 1997-2007: geographic and socioeconomic differentials

BACKGROUND

Little has been published on changes in young driver fatality rates over time. This paper examines differences in Australian young driver fatality rates over the last decade, examining important risk factors including place of residence and socioeconomic status (SES).

METHODS

Young driver (17-25years) police-recorded passenger vehicle crashes were extracted from New South Wales State records from 1997-2007. Rurality of residence and SES were classified into three levels based on drivers' residential postcode: urban, regional, or rural; and high, moderate, or low SES areas. Geographic and SES disparities in trends of fatality rates were examined by the generalized linear model. Chi-square trend test was used to examine the distributions of posted speed limits, drinking driving, fatigue, seatbelt use, vehicle age, night-time driving, and the time from crash to death across rurality and socioeconomic status.

RESULTS

Young driver fatality rate significantly decreased 5% per year (p<0.05); however, stratified analyses (by rurality and by SES) showed that only the reduction among urban drivers was significant (average 5% decrease per year, p<0.01). The higher relative risk of fatality for rural versus urban drivers, and for drivers of low versus high SES remained unchanged over the last decade. High posted speed limits, fatigue, drink driving and seatbelt non-use were significantly associated with rural fatalities, whereas high posted speed limit, fatigue, and driving an older vehicle were significantly related to low SES fatality.

CONCLUSION

The constant geographic and SES disparities in young driver fatality rates highlight safety inequities for those living in rural areas and those of low SES. Better targeted interventions are needed, including attention to behavioral risk factors and vehicle age.