Genetic nature or genetic nurture? Introducing social genetic parameters to quantify bias in polygenic score analyses

Raising the Floor? Genetic Influences on Educational Attainment Through the Lens of the Evolving Swedish Welfare State

Interest in the role of genetics in influencing key life outcomes such as educational attainment has grown quickly. However, the question of whether genetic influences on educational attainment, on average as well as in conjunction with socioeconomic circumstances, are moderated by macro-level factors has not yet received sufficient attention. This study combines polygenic indices for educational attainment (EA PGI) with high-quality register data in a large sample of Swedish twins of European ancestry born 1920-1999. Employing both conventional between-family and within-family models, the analyses suggest that the influences of education-related genetic propensities on educational attainment have increased in Sweden during the twentieth century, a period featuring major expansions of the Swedish educational system, and decreasing economic inequality. The analyses also suggest that the degree to which socioeconomic background enhances genetic influences on education has decreased across cohorts. Genetic influences on education do not appear to have translated into increased genetic influences on income. Additionally, there is some evidence of floor and ceiling effects in the analyses of dichotomous educational outcomes.

Using twin-pairs to assess potential bias in polygenic prediction of externalising behaviours across development

Prediction from polygenic scores may be confounded by sources of passive gene-environment correlation (rGE; e.g. population stratification, assortative mating, and environmentally mediated effects of parental genotype on child phenotype). Using genomic data from 10 000 twin pairs, we asked whether polygenic scores from the most recent externalising genome-wide association study predict conduct problems, ADHD symptomology and callous-unemotional traits, and whether these predictions are biased by rGE. We ran regression models including within-family and between-family polygenic scores, to separate the direct genetic influence on a trait from environmental influences that correlate with genes (indirect genetic effects). Findings suggested that this externalising polygenic score is a good index of direct genetic influence on conduct and ADHD-related symptoms across development, with minimal bias from rGE, although the polygenic score predicted less variance in CU traits. Post-hoc analyses showed some indirect genetic effects acting on a common factor indexing stability of conduct problems across time and contexts.

Using the phenotype differences model to identify genetic effects in samples of partially genotyped sibling pairs

The identification of causal relationships between specific genes and social, behavioral, and health outcomes is challenging due to environmental confounding from population stratification and dynastic genetic effects. Existing methods to eliminate environmental confounding leverage random genetic variation resulting from recombination and require within-family dyadic genetic data (i.e., parent-child and/or sibling pairs), meaning they can only be applied in relatively small and selected samples. We introduce the phenotype differences model and provide derivations showing that it-under plausible assumptions-provides consistent (and, in certain cases, unbiased) estimates of genetic effects using just a single individual's genotype. Then, leveraging distinct samples of fully and partially genotyped sibling pairs in the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study, we use polygenic indices and phenotypic data for 24 different traits to empirically validate the phenotype differences model. Finally, we utilize the model to test the effects of 40 polygenic indices on lifespan. After a 10% false discovery rate correction, we find that polygenic indices for three traits-body mass index, self-rated health, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease-have a statistically significant effect on an individual's lifespan.

Estimation of Direct and Indirect Polygenic Effects and Gene-Environment Interactions using Polygenic Scores in Case-Parent Trio Studies

Family-based studies provide a unique opportunity to characterize genetic risks of diseases in the presence of population structure, assortative mating, and indirect genetic effects. We propose a novel framework, PGS-TRI, for the analysis of polygenic scores (PGS) in case-parent trio studies for estimation of the risk of an index condition associated with direct effects of inherited PGS, indirect effects of parental PGS, and gene-environment interactions. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate the robustness of PGS-TRI in the presence of complex population structure and assortative mating compared to alternative methods. We apply PGS-TRI to multi-ancestry trio studies of autism spectrum disorders (Ntrio = 1,517) and orofacial clefts (Ntrio = 1,904) to establish the first transmission-based estimates of risk associated with pre-defined PGS for these conditions and other related traits. For both conditions, we further explored offspring risk associated with polygenic gene-environment interactions, and direct and indirect effects of genetically predicted levels of gene expression and metabolite traits.

Causal interpretations of family GWAS in the presence of heterogeneous effects

Family-based genome-wide association studies (GWASs) are often claimed to provide an unbiased estimate of the average causal effects (or average treatment effects; ATEs) of alleles, on the basis of an analogy between the random transmission of alleles from parents to children and a randomized controlled trial. We show that this claim does not hold in general. Because Mendelian segregation only randomizes alleles among children of heterozygotes, the effects of alleles in the children of homozygotes are not observable. This feature will matter if an allele has different average effects in the children of homozygotes and heterozygotes, as can arise in the presence of gene-by-environment interactions, gene-by-gene interactions, or differences in linkage disequilibrium patterns. At a single locus, family-based GWAS can be thought of as providing an unbiased estimate of the average effect in the children of heterozygotes (i.e., a local average treatment effect; LATE). This interpretation does not extend to polygenic scores (PGSs), however, because different sets of SNPs are heterozygous in each family. Therefore, other than under specific conditions, the within-family regression slope of a PGS cannot be assumed to provide an unbiased estimate of the LATE for any subset or weighted average of families. In practice, the potential biases of a family-based GWAS are likely smaller than those that can arise from confounding in a standard, population-based GWAS, and so family studies remain important for the dissection of genetic contributions to phenotypic variation. Nonetheless, their causal interpretation is less straightforward than has been widely appreciated.

Human genetics and epigenetics of alcohol use disorder

Alcohol use disorder (AUD) is a prominent contributor to global morbidity and mortality. Its complex etiology involves genetics, epigenetics, and environmental factors. We review progress in understanding the genetics and epigenetics of AUD, summarizing the key findings. Advancements in technology over the decades have elevated research from early candidate gene studies to present-day genome-wide scans, unveiling numerous genetic and epigenetic risk factors for AUD. The latest GWAS on more than one million participants identified more than 100 genetic variants, and the largest epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS) in blood and brain samples have revealed tissue-specific epigenetic changes. Downstream analyses revealed enriched pathways, genetic correlations with other traits, transcriptome-wide association in brain tissues, and drug-gene interactions for AUD. We also discuss limitations and future directions, including increasing the power of GWAS and EWAS studies as well as expanding the diversity of populations included in these analyses. Larger samples, novel technologies, and analytic approaches are essential; these include whole-genome sequencing, multiomics, single-cell sequencing, spatial transcriptomics, deep-learning prediction of variant function, and integrated methods for disease risk prediction.

Interaction of family SES with children's genetic propensity for cognitive and noncognitive skills: No evidence of the Scarr-Rowe hypothesis for educational outcomes

This study examines the role of genes and environments in predicting educational outcomes. We test the Scarr-Rowe hypothesis, suggesting that enriched environments enable genetic potential to unfold, and the compensatory advantage hypothesis, proposing that low genetic endowments have less impact on education for children from high socioeconomic status (SES) families. We use a pre-registered design with Netherlands Twin Register data (426 ≤ N individuals ≤ 3875). We build polygenic indexes (PGIs) for cognitive and noncognitive skills to predict seven educational outcomes from childhood to adulthood across three designs (between-family, within-family, and trio) accounting for different confounding sources, totalling 42 analyses. Cognitive PGIs, noncognitive PGIs, and parental education positively predict educational outcomes. Providing partial support for the compensatory hypothesis, 39/42 PGI × SES interactions are negative, with 7 reaching statistical significance under Romano-Wolf and 3 under the more conservative Bonferroni multiple testing corrections (p-value < 0.007). In contrast, the Scarr-Rowe hypothesis lacks empirical support, with just 2 non-significant and 1 significant (not surviving Romano-Wolf) positive interactions. Overall, we emphasise the need for future replication studies in larger samples. Our findings demonstrate the value of merging social-stratification and behavioural-genetic theories to better understand the intricate interplay between genetic factors and social contexts.

Exploring the Fetal Origins Hypothesis Using Genetic Data

Birth weight is a robust predictor of valued life course outcomes, emphasizing the importance of prenatal development. But does birth weight act as a proxy for environmental conditions in utero, or do biological processes surrounding birth weight themselves play a role in healthy development? To answer this question, we leverage variation in birth weight that is, within families, orthogonal to prenatal environmental conditions: one's genes. We construct polygenic scores in two longitudinal studies (Born in Bradford, N = 2008; Wisconsin Longitudinal Study, N = 8488) to empirically explore the molecular genetic correlates of birth weight. A 1 standard deviation increase in the polygenic score is associated with an ~100-grams increase in birth weight and a 1.4 pp (22 percent) decrease in low birth weight probability. Sibling comparisons illustrate that this association largely represents a causal effect. The polygenic score-birth weight association is increased for children who spend longer in the womb and whose mothers have higher body mass index, though we find no differences across maternal socioeconomic status. Finally, the polygenic score affects social and cognitive outcomes, suggesting that birth weight is itself related to healthy prenatal development.

More than nature and nurture, indirect genetic effects on children's academic achievement are consequences of dynastic social processes

Families transmit genes and environments across generations. When parents' genetics affect their children's environments, these two modes of inheritance can produce an 'indirect genetic effect'. Such indirect genetic effects may account for up to half of the estimated genetic variance in educational attainment. Here we tested if indirect genetic effects reflect within-nuclear-family transmission ('genetic nurture') or instead a multi-generational process of social stratification ('dynastic effects'). We analysed indirect genetic effects on children's academic achievement in their fifth to ninth years of schooling in N = 37,117 parent-offspring trios in the Norwegian Mother, Father, and Child Cohort Study (MoBa). We used pairs of genetically related families (parents were siblings, children were cousins; N = 10,913) to distinguish within-nuclear-family genetic-nurture effects from dynastic effects shared by cousins in different nuclear families. We found that indirect genetic effects on children's academic achievement cannot be explained by processes that operate exclusively within the nuclear family.

Interpreting population- and family-based genome-wide association studies in the presence of confounding

A central aim of genome-wide association studies (GWASs) is to estimate direct genetic effects: the causal effects on an individual's phenotype of the alleles that they carry. However, estimates of direct effects can be subject to genetic and environmental confounding and can also absorb the "indirect" genetic effects of relatives' genotypes. Recently, an important development in controlling for these confounds has been the use of within-family GWASs, which, because of the randomness of mendelian segregation within pedigrees, are often interpreted as producing unbiased estimates of direct effects. Here, we present a general theoretical analysis of the influence of confounding in standard population-based and within-family GWASs. We show that, contrary to common interpretation, family-based estimates of direct effects can be biased by genetic confounding. In humans, such biases will often be small per-locus, but can be compounded when effect-size estimates are used in polygenic scores (PGSs). We illustrate the influence of genetic confounding on population- and family-based estimates of direct effects using models of assortative mating, population stratification, and stabilizing selection on GWAS traits. We further show how family-based estimates of indirect genetic effects, based on comparisons of parentally transmitted and untransmitted alleles, can suffer substantial genetic confounding. We conclude that, while family-based studies have placed GWAS estimation on a more rigorous footing, they carry subtle issues of interpretation that arise from confounding.

A Wolf in Sheep's Clothing: Idealisations and the aims of polygenic scores

Research in pharmacogenomics and precision medicine has recently introduced the concept of Polygenic Scores (PGSs), namely, indexes that aggregate the effects that many genetic variants are predicted to have on individual disease risk. The popularity of PGSs is increasing rapidly, but surprisingly little attention has been paid to the idealisations they make about phenotypic development. Indeed, PGSs rely on quantitative genetics models and methods, which involve considerable theoretical assumptions that have been questioned on various grounds. This comes with epistemological and ethical concerns about the use of PGSs in clinical decision-making. In this paper, I investigate to what extent idealisations in genetics models can impact the data gathering and clinical interpretation of genomics findings, particularly the calculation and predictive accuracy of PGSs. Although idealisations are considered ineliminable components of scientific models, they may be legitimate or not depending on the epistemic aims of a model. I thus analyse how various idealisations have been introduced in classical models and progressively readapted throughout the history of genetic theorising. Notably, this process involved important changes in the epistemic purpose of such idealisations, which raises the question of whether they are legitimate in the context of contemporary genomics.

Causal interpretations of family GWAS in the presence of heterogeneous effects

Family-based genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have emerged as a gold standard for assessing causal effects of alleles and polygenic scores. Notably, family studies are often claimed to provide an unbiased estimate of the average causal effect (or average treatment effect; ATE) of an allele, on the basis of an analogy between the random transmission of alleles from parents to children and a randomized controlled trial. Here, we show that this interpretation does not hold in general. Because Mendelian segregation only randomizes alleles among children of heterozygotes, the effects of alleles in the children of homozygotes are not observable. Consequently, if an allele has different average effects in the children of homozygotes and heterozygotes, as can arise in the presence of gene-by-environment interactions, gene-by-gene interactions, or differences in LD patterns, family studies provide a biased estimate of the average effect in the sample. At a single locus, family-based association studies can be thought of as providing an unbiased estimate of the average effect in the children of heterozygotes (i.e., a local average treatment effect; LATE). This interpretation does not extend to polygenic scores, however, because different sets of SNPs are heterozygous in each family. Therefore, other than under specific conditions, the within-family regression slope of a PGS cannot be assumed to provide an unbiased estimate for any subset or weighted average of families. Instead, family-based studies can be reinterpreted as enabling an unbiased estimate of the extent to which Mendelian segregation at loci in the PGS contributes to the population-level variance in the trait. Because this estimate does not include the between-family variance, however, this interpretation applies to only (roughly) half of the sample PGS variance. In practice, the potential biases of a family-based GWAS are likely smaller than those arising from confounding in a standard, population-based GWAS, and so family studies remain important for the dissection of genetic contributions to phenotypic variation. Nonetheless, the causal interpretation of family-based GWAS estimates is less straightforward than has been widely appreciated.

Associations between polygenic risk of substance use and use disorder and alcohol, cannabis, and nicotine use in adolescence and young adulthood in a longitudinal twin study

BACKGROUND

Recent well-powered genome-wide association studies have enhanced prediction of substance use outcomes via polygenic scores (PGSs). Here, we test (1) whether these scores contribute to prediction over-and-above family history, (2) the extent to which PGS prediction reflects inherited genetic variation v. demography (population stratification and assortative mating) and indirect genetic effects of parents (genetic nurture), and (3) whether PGS prediction is mediated by behavioral disinhibition prior to substance use onset.

METHODS

PGSs for alcohol, cannabis, and nicotine use/use disorder were calculated for Minnesota Twin Family Study participants (N = 2483, 1565 monozygotic/918 dizygotic). Twins' parents were assessed for histories of substance use disorder. Twins were assessed for behavioral disinhibition at age 11 and substance use from ages 14 to 24. PGS prediction of substance use was examined using linear mixed-effects, within-twin pair, and structural equation models.

RESULTS

Nearly all PGS measures were associated with multiple types of substance use independently of family history. However, most within-pair PGS prediction estimates were substantially smaller than the corresponding between-pair estimates, suggesting that prediction is driven in part by demography and indirect genetic effects of parents. Path analyses indicated the effects of both PGSs and family history on substance use were mediated via disinhibition in preadolescence.

CONCLUSIONS

PGSs capturing risk of substance use and use disorder can be combined with family history measures to augment prediction of substance use outcomes. Results highlight indirect sources of genetic associations and preadolescent elevations in behavioral disinhibition as two routes through which these scores may relate to substance use.

Interpreting population and family-based genome-wide association studies in the presence of confounding

A central aim of genome-wide association studies (GWASs) is to estimate direct genetic effects: the causal effects on an individual's phenotype of the alleles that they carry. However, estimates of direct effects can be subject to genetic and environmental confounding, and can also absorb the 'indirect' genetic effects of relatives' genotypes. Recently, an important development in controlling for these confounds has been the use of within-family GWASs, which, because of the randomness of Mendelian segregation within pedigrees, are often interpreted as producing unbiased estimates of direct effects. Here, we present a general theoretical analysis of the influence of confounding in standard population-based and within-family GWASs. We show that, contrary to common interpretation, family-based estimates of direct effects can be biased by genetic confounding. In humans, such biases will often be small per-locus, but can be compounded when effect size estimates are used in polygenic scores. We illustrate the influence of genetic confounding on population- and family-based estimates of direct effects using models of assortative mating, population stratification, and stabilizing selection on GWAS traits. We further show how family-based estimates of indirect genetic effects, based on comparisons of parentally transmitted and untransmitted alleles, can suffer substantial genetic confounding. In addition to known biases that can arise in family-based GWASs when interactions between family members are ignored, we show that biases can also arise from gene-by-environment (G×E) interactions when parental genotypes are not distributed identically across interacting environmental and genetic backgrounds. We conclude that, while family-based studies have placed GWAS estimation on a more rigorous footing, they carry subtle issues of interpretation that arise from confounding and interactions.

Decomposing heritability and genetic covariance by direct and indirect effect paths

Estimation of heritability and genetic covariance is crucial for quantifying and understanding complex trait genetic architecture and is employed in almost all recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS). However, many existing approaches for heritability estimation and almost all methods for estimating genetic correlation ignore the presence of indirect genetic effects, i.e., genotype-phenotype associations confounded by the parental genome and family environment, and may thus lead to incorrect interpretation especially for human sociobehavioral phenotypes. In this work, we introduce a statistical framework to decompose heritability and genetic covariance into multiple components representing direct and indirect effect paths. Applied to five traits in UK Biobank, we found substantial involvement of indirect genetic components in shared genetic architecture across traits. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach and highlight the importance of accounting for indirect effects in variance component analysis of complex traits.

Schooling substantially improves intelligence, but neither lessens nor widens the impacts of socioeconomics and genetics

Schooling, socioeconomic status (SES), and genetics all impact intelligence. However, it is unclear to what extent their contributions are unique and if they interact. Here we used a multi-trait polygenic score for cognition (cogPGS) with a quasi-experimental regression discontinuity design to isolate how months of schooling relate to intelligence in 6567 children (aged 9-11). We found large, independent effects of schooling (β ~ 0.15), cogPGS (β ~ 0.10), and SES (β ~ 0.20) on working memory, crystallized (cIQ), and fluid intelligence (fIQ). Notably, two years of schooling had a larger effect on intelligence than the lifetime consequences, since birth, of SES or cogPGS-based inequalities. However, schooling showed no interaction with cogPGS or SES for the three intelligence domains tested. While schooling had strong main effects on intelligence, it did not lessen, nor widen the impact of these preexisting SES or genetic factors.

Luck, lottery, or legacy? The problem of confounding. A reply to Harden

A reply to Harden's response to Coop and Przeworski (2022).

The impact of digital media on children's intelligence while controlling for genetic differences in cognition and socioeconomic background

Digital media defines modern childhood, but its cognitive effects are unclear and hotly debated. We believe that studies with genetic data could clarify causal claims and correct for the typically unaccounted role of genetic predispositions. Here, we estimated the impact of different types of screen time (watching, socializing, or gaming) on children’s intelligence while controlling for the confounding effects of genetic differences in cognition and socioeconomic status. We analyzed 9855 children from the USA who were part of the ABCD dataset with measures of intelligence at baseline (ages 9–10) and after two years. At baseline, time watching (r = − 0.12) and socializing (r = − 0.10) were negatively correlated with intelligence, while gaming did not correlate. After two years, gaming positively impacted intelligence (standardized β =  + 0.17), but socializing had no effect. This is consistent with cognitive benefits documented in experimental studies on video gaming. Unexpectedly, watching videos also benefited intelligence (standardized β =  + 0.12), contrary to prior research on the effect of watching TV. Although, in a posthoc analysis, this was not significant if parental education (instead of SES) was controlled for. Broadly, our results are in line with research on the malleability of cognitive abilities from environmental factors, such as cognitive training and the Flynn effect.

Polygenic prediction of educational attainment within and between families from genome-wide association analyses in 3 million individuals

We conduct a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of educational attainment (EA) in a sample of ~3 million individuals and identify 3,952 approximately uncorrelated genome-wide-significant single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). A genome-wide polygenic predictor, or polygenic index (PGI), explains 12-16% of EA variance and contributes to risk prediction for ten diseases. Direct effects (i.e., controlling for parental PGIs) explain roughly half the PGI's magnitude of association with EA and other phenotypes. The correlation between mate-pair PGIs is far too large to be consistent with phenotypic assortment alone, implying additional assortment on PGI-associated factors. In an additional GWAS of dominance deviations from the additive model, we identify no genome-wide-significant SNPs, and a separate X-chromosome additive GWAS identifies 57.

The "Golden Age" of Behavior Genetics?

The search for genetic risk factors underlying the presumed heritability of all human behavior has unfolded in two phases. The first phase, characterized by candidate-gene-association (CGA) studies, has fallen out of favor in the behavior-genetics community, so much so that it has been referred to as a "cautionary tale." The second and current iteration is characterized by genome-wide association studies (GWASs), single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) heritability estimates, and polygenic risk scores. This research is guided by the resurrection of, or reemphasis on, Fisher's "infinite infinitesimal allele" model of the heritability of complex phenotypes, first proposed over 100 years ago. Despite seemingly significant differences between the two iterations, they are united in viewing the discovery of risk alleles underlying heritability as a matter of finding differences in allele frequencies. Many of the infirmities that beset CGA studies persist in the era of GWASs, accompanied by a host of new difficulties due to the human genome's underlying complexities and the limitations of Fisher's model in the postgenomics era.

Indirect Genetic Effects: A Cross-disciplinary Perspective on Empirical Studies

Indirect genetic effects (IGE) occur when an individual's phenotype is influenced by genetic variation in conspecifics. Opportunities for IGE are ubiquitous, and, when present, IGE have profound implications for behavioral, evolutionary, agricultural, and biomedical genetics. Despite their importance, the empirical study of IGE lags behind the development of theory. In large part, this lag can be attributed to the fact that measuring IGE, and deconvoluting them from the direct genetic effects of an individual's own genotype, is subject to many potential pitfalls. In this Perspective, we describe current challenges that empiricists across all disciplines will encounter in measuring and understanding IGE. Using ideas and examples spanning evolutionary, agricultural, and biomedical genetics, we also describe potential solutions to these challenges, focusing on opportunities provided by recent advances in genomic, monitoring, and phenotyping technologies. We hope that this cross-disciplinary assessment will advance the goal of understanding the pervasive effects of conspecific interactions in biology.

A polygenic score for educational attainment partially predicts voter turnout

Twin and adoption studies have shown that individual differences in political participation can be explained, in part, by genetic variation. However, these research designs cannot identify which genes are related to voting or the pathways through which they exert influence, and their conclusions rely on possibly restrictive assumptions. In this study, we use three different US samples and a Swedish sample to test whether genes that have been identified as associated with educational attainment, one of the strongest correlates of political participation, predict self-reported and validated voter turnout. We find that a polygenic score capturing individuals' genetic propensity to acquire education is significantly related to turnout. The strongest associations we observe are in second-order midterm elections in the United States and European Parliament elections in Sweden, which tend to be viewed as less important by voters, parties, and the media and thus present a more information-poor electoral environment for citizens to navigate. A within-family analysis suggests that individuals' education-linked genes directly affect their voting behavior, but, for second-order elections, it also reveals evidence of genetic nurture. Finally, a mediation analysis suggests that educational attainment and cognitive ability combine to account for between 41% and 63% of the relationship between the genetic propensity to acquire education and voter turnout.

The Meaning of "Cause" in Genetics

Causation has multiple distinct meanings in genetics. One reason for this is meaning slippage between two concepts of the gene: Mendelian and molecular. Another reason is that a variety of genetic methods address different kinds of causal relationships. Some genetic studies address causes of traits in individuals, which can only be assessed when single genes follow predictable inheritance patterns that reliably cause a trait. A second sense concerns the causes of trait differences within a population. Whereas some single genes can be said to cause population-level differences, most often these claims concern the effects of many genes. Polygenic traits can be understood using heritability estimates, which estimate the relative influences of genetic and environmental differences to trait differences within a population. Attempts to understand the molecular mechanisms underlying polygenic traits have been developed, although causal inference based on these results remains controversial. Genetic variation has also recently been leveraged as a randomizing factor to identify environmental causes of trait differences. This technique-Mendelian randomization-offers some solutions to traditional epidemiological challenges, although it is limited to the study of environments with known genetic influences.

Lung function, COPD and cognitive function: a multivariable and two sample Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

Observational studies show an association between reduced lung function and impaired cognition. Cognitive dysfunction influences important health outcomes and is a precursor to dementia, but treatments options are currently very limited. Attention has therefore focused on identifying modifiable risk factors to prevent cognitive decline and preserve cognition. Our objective was to determine if lung function or risk of COPD causes reduced cognitive function using Mendelian randomization (MR).

METHODS

Single nucleotide polymorphisms from genome wide association studies of lung function and COPD were used as exposures. We examined their effect on general cognitive function in a sample of 132,452 individuals. We then performed multivariable MR (MVMR), examining the effect of lung function before and after conditioning for covariates.

RESULTS

We found only weak evidence that reduced lung function (Beta - 0.002 (SE 0.02), p-value 0.86) or increased liability to COPD (- 0.008 (0.008), p-value 0.35) causes lower cognitive function. MVMR found both reduced FEV1 and FVC do cause lower cognitive function, but that after conditioning for height (- 0.03 (0.03), p-value 0.29 and - 0.01 (0.03) p-value 0.62, for FEV1 and FVC respectively) and educational attainment (- 0.03 (0.03) p-value 0.33 and - 0.01 (0.02), p-value 0.35) the evidence became weak.

CONCLUSION

We did not find evidence that reduced lung function or COPD causes reduced cognitive function. Previous observational studies are probably affected by residual confounding. Research efforts should focus on shared risk factors for reduced lung function and cognition, rather than lung function alone as a modifiable risk factor.

Machine Learning Prediction of Biomarkers from SNPs and of Disease Risk from Biomarkers in the UK Biobank

We use UK Biobank data to train predictors for 65 blood and urine markers such as HDL, LDL, lipoprotein A, glycated haemoglobin, etc. from SNP genotype. For example, our Polygenic Score (PGS) predictor correlates ∼0.76 with lipoprotein A level, which is highly heritable and an independent risk factor for heart disease. This may be the most accurate genomic prediction of a quantitative trait that has yet been produced (specifically, for European ancestry groups). We also train predictors of common disease risk using blood and urine biomarkers alone (no DNA information); we call these predictors biomarker risk scores, BMRS. Individuals who are at high risk (e.g., odds ratio of >5× population average) can be identified for conditions such as coronary artery disease (AUC∼0.75), diabetes (AUC∼0.95), hypertension, liver and kidney problems, and cancer using biomarkers alone. Our atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) predictor uses ∼10 biomarkers and performs in UKB evaluation as well as or better than the American College of Cardiology ASCVD Risk Estimator, which uses quite different inputs (age, diagnostic history, BMI, smoking status, statin usage, etc.). We compare polygenic risk scores (risk conditional on genotype: PRS) for common diseases to the risk predictors which result from the concatenation of learned functions BMRS and PGS, i.e., applying the BMRS predictors to the PGS output.

Estimating genetic nurture with summary statistics of multigenerational genome-wide association studies

Marginal effect estimates in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are mixtures of direct and indirect genetic effects. Existing methods to dissect these effects require family-based, individual-level genetic, and phenotypic data with large samples, which is difficult to obtain in practice. Here, we propose a statistical framework to estimate direct and indirect genetic effects using summary statistics from GWAS conducted on own and offspring phenotypes. Applied to birth weight, our method showed nearly identical results with those obtained using individual-level data. We also decomposed direct and indirect genetic effects of educational attainment (EA), which showed distinct patterns of genetic correlations with 45 complex traits. The known genetic correlations between EA and higher height, lower body mass index, less-active smoking behavior, and better health outcomes were mostly explained by the indirect genetic component of EA. In contrast, the consistently identified genetic correlation of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) with higher EA resides in the direct genetic component. A polygenic transmission disequilibrium test showed a significant overtransmission of the direct component of EA from healthy parents to ASD probands. Taken together, we demonstrate that traditional GWAS approaches, in conjunction with offspring phenotypic data collection in existing cohorts, could greatly benefit studies on genetic nurture and shed important light on the interpretation of genetic associations for human complex traits.

Gene-environment dependencies lead to collider bias in models with polygenic scores

The application of polygenic scores has transformed our ability to investigate whether and how genetic and environmental factors jointly contribute to the variation of complex traits. Modelling the complex interplay between genes and environment, however, raises serious methodological challenges. Here we illustrate the largely unrecognised impact of gene-environment dependencies on the identification of the effects of genes and their variation across environments. We show that controlling for heritable covariates in regression models that include polygenic scores as independent variables introduces endogenous selection bias when one or more of these covariates depends on unmeasured factors that also affect the outcome. This results in the problem of conditioning on a collider, which in turn leads to spurious associations and effect sizes. Using graphical and simulation methods we demonstrate that the degree of bias depends on the strength of the gene-covariate correlation and of hidden heterogeneity linking covariates with outcomes, regardless of whether the main analytic focus is mediation, confounding, or gene × covariate (commonly gene × environment) interactions. We offer potential solutions, highlighting the importance of causal inference. We also urge further caution when fitting and interpreting models with polygenic scores and non-exogenous environments or phenotypes and demonstrate how spurious associations are likely to arise, advancing our understanding of such results.

Dissecting the genetic association of C-reactive protein with PTSD, traumatic events, and social support

Inflammatory markers like C-reactive protein (CRP) have been associated with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and traumatic experiences, but the underlying mechanisms are unclear. We investigated the relationship among serum CRP, PTSD, and traits related to traumatic events and social support using genetic association data from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium (23,185 PTSD cases and 151,309 controls), the UK Biobank (UKB; up to 117,900 individuals), and the CHARGE study (Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology, 148,164 individual). Linkage disequilibrium score regression, polygenic risk scoring, and two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses were used to investigate genetic overlap and causal relationships. Genetic correlations of CRP were observed with PTSD (rg = 0.16, p = 0.026) and traits related to traumatic events, and the presence of social support (-0.28 < rg < 0.20; p < 0.008). We observed a bidirectional association between CRP and PTSD (CRP → PTSD: β = 0.065, p = 0.015; PTSD → CRP: β = 0.008, p = 0.009). CRP also showed a negative association with the "felt loved as a child" trait (UKB, β = -0.017, p = 0.008). Owing to the known association of socioeconomic status (SES) on PTSD, a multivariable MR was performed to investigate SES as potential mediator. We found that household income (univariate MR: β = -0.22, p = 1.57 × 10-7; multivariate MR: β = -0.17, p = 0.005) and deprivation index (univariate MR: β = 0.38, p = 1.63 × 10-9; multivariate MR: β = 0.27, p = 0.016) were driving the causal estimates of "felt loved as a child" and CRP on PTSD. The present findings highlight a bidirectional genetic association between PTSD and CRP, also suggesting a potential role of SES in the interplay between childhood support and inflammatory processes with respect to PTSD risk.

Nurture might be nature: cautionary tales and proposed solutions

Across a wide range of studies, researchers often conclude that the home environment and children's outcomes are causally linked. In contrast, behavioral genetic studies show that parents influence their children by providing them with both environment and genes, meaning the environment that parents provide should not be considered in the absence of genetic influences, because that can lead to erroneous conclusions on causation. This article seeks to provide behavioral scientists with a synopsis of numerous methods to estimate the direct effect of the environment, controlling for the potential of genetic confounding. Ideally, using genetically sensitive designs can fully disentangle this genetic confound, but these require specialized samples. In the near future, researchers will likely have access to measured DNA variants (summarized in a polygenic scores), which could serve as a partial genetic control, but that is currently not an option that is ideal or widely available. We also propose a work around for when genetically sensitive data are not readily available: the Familial Control Method. In this method, one measures the same trait in the parents as the child, and the parents' trait is then used as a covariate (e.g., a genetic proxy). When these options are all not possible, we plead with our colleagues to clearly mention genetic confound as a limitation, and to be cautious with any environmental causal statements which could lead to unnecessary parent blaming.

Separating Measured Genetic and Environmental Effects: Evidence Linking Parental Genotype and Adopted Child Outcomes

There has been widespread adoption of genome wide summary scores (polygenic scores) as tools for studying the importance of genetics and associated life course mechanisms across a range of demographic and socioeconomic outcomes. However, an often unacknowledged issue with these studies is that parental genetics impact both child environments and child genetics, leaving the effects of polygenic scores difficult to interpret. This paper uses multi-generational data containing polygenic scores for parents (n = 7193) and educational outcomes for adopted (n = 855) and biological (n = 20,939) children, many raised in the same families, which allows us to separate the influence of parental polygenic scores on children outcomes between environmental (adopted children) and environmental and genetic (biological children) effects. Our results complement recent work on "genetic nurture" by showing associations of parental polygenic scores with adopted children's schooling, providing additional evidence that polygenic scores combine genetic and environmental influences and that research designs are needed to separate these estimated impacts.

Sibling validation of polygenic risk scores and complex trait prediction

We test 26 polygenic predictors using tens of thousands of genetic siblings from the UK Biobank (UKB), for whom we have SNP genotypes, health status, and phenotype information in late adulthood. Siblings have typically experienced similar environments during childhood, and exhibit negligible population stratification relative to each other. Therefore, the ability to predict differences in disease risk or complex trait values between siblings is a strong test of genomic prediction in humans. We compare validation results obtained using non-sibling subjects to those obtained among siblings and find that typically most of the predictive power persists in between-sibling designs. In the case of disease risk we test the extent to which higher polygenic risk score (PRS) identifies the affected sibling, and also compute Relative Risk Reduction as a function of risk score threshold. For quantitative traits we examine between-sibling differences in trait values as a function of predicted differences, and compare to performance in non-sibling pairs. Example results: Given 1 sibling with normal-range PRS score (< 84 percentile, < + 1 SD) and 1 sibling with high PRS score (top few percentiles, i.e. > + 2 SD), the predictors identify the affected sibling about 70–90% of the time across a variety of disease conditions, including Breast Cancer, Heart Attack, Diabetes, etc. 55–65% of the time the higher PRS sibling is the case. For quantitative traits such as height, the predictor correctly identifies the taller sibling roughly 80 percent of the time when the (male) height difference is 2 inches or more.

The Earliest Origins of Genetic Nurture: The Prenatal Environment Mediates the Association Between Maternal Genetics and Child Development

Observed genetic associations with educational attainment may be due to direct or indirect genetic influences. Recent work highlights genetic nurture, the potential effect of parents' genetics on their child's educational outcomes via rearing environments. To date, few mediating childhood environments have been tested. We used a large sample of genotyped mother-child dyads (N = 2,077) to investigate whether genetic nurture occurs via the prenatal environment. We found that mothers with more education-related genes are generally healthier and more financially stable during pregnancy. Further, measured prenatal conditions explain up to one third of the associations between maternal genetics and children's academic and developmental outcomes at the ages of 4 to 7 years. By providing the first evidence of prenatal genetic nurture and showing that genetic nurture is detectable in early childhood, this study broadens our understanding of how parental genetics may influence children and illustrates the challenges of within-person interpretation of existing genetic associations.