Modeling the sustained use of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine compared to switching to the 10-valent vaccine in Mexico

PCV20 for the prevention of invasive pneumococcal disease in the Mexican pediatric population: A cost-effectiveness analysis

The introduction of a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) covering 13 serotypes (PCV13) into the Mexican pediatric national immunization program (NIP) has substantially reduced the burden of pneumococcal disease (PD) since 2010. This study aimed to estimate the impact of replacing either PCV13 or 15valent PCV (PCV15) with 20-valent PCV (PCV20) in the Mexican pediatric NIP. A decision-analytic Markov model was developed to compare the cost-effectiveness of PCV20 versus lower-valent vaccines from a Mexican public health sector (payer) perspective over 10 years. Epidemiological and cost inputs were sourced from Mexican data. Direct and indirect vaccine effects were estimated using PCV13 clinical effectiveness, 7-valent PCV efficacy studies, and PCV13 impact data in Mexico. The estimated disease and cost impact of PCV20 was compared with PCV13 and PCV15, all under a 2 + 1 dosing schedule. A discount rate of 5% per annum was applied to costs and health outcomes. Model robustness was evaluated through sensitivity analyses, including deterministic sensitivity analysis (DSA), probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA), and additional scenario assessments. PCV20 was estimated to provide considerably more health benefits than both comparators by averting more cases of PD compared with both PCV13 and PCV15, as well as a total cost saving of over 10 billion Mexican pesos. The DSA, PSA, and scenario assessments confirmed minimal deviation from the base case. Therefore, the introduction of PCV20 (2 + 1) into the Mexican pediatric NIP is expected to reduce the burden of PD and medical costs compared with lower-valent alternatives.

Economic and Clinical Benefits of Bivalent Respiratory Syncytial Virus Prefusion F (RSVpreF) Maternal Vaccine for Prevention of RSV in Infants: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis for Mexico

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of respiratory infections in children. A novel RSVpreF vaccine for use among pregnant women for the prevention of RSV in infants is expected to be licensed in Mexico. Hence, the clinical and economic burden of RSV among infants in Mexico, with and without a year-round RSVpreF maternal vaccination program, was estimated.

METHODS

A cohort model was developed to project clinical and economic outcomes of RSV from birth to 1 year of age for maternal vaccination and no intervention. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated from direct cost outcomes, life years, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). The value per dose of the RSVpreF for which the program would be cost-effective was explored. Analyses were conducted from the healthcare system perspective, with direct costs (2024 Mexican Pesos [MXN]) and outcomes discounted at 5% annually; scenario and sensitivity analyses tested the robustness of model settings and inputs.

RESULTS

Compared to no intervention, a year-round RSVpreF vaccine administered to 1891 M pregnant women would prevent 15,768 hospitalizations, 5505 emergency department cases, and 5505 physician office visits annually, averting MXN 1754 M in direct medical costs with an increase of 3402 life years or 3666 QALYs. The RSVpreF vaccine would be cost-saving up to MXN 1301/dose and cost-effective up to MXN 2105-MXN 3715/dose under an assumed cost-effectiveness threshold range of 1-3× the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (MXN 247,310) per QALY gained.

CONCLUSIONS

Year-round RSVpreF maternal vaccination would substantially reduce RSV's clinical and economic burden among infants in Mexico and likely be a cost-effective program.

Assessing Public Health Impact of Four Pediatric Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccination Strategies in the Netherlands

INTRODUCTION

The 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10, Synflorix) was introduced into the Dutch pediatric national immunization program (NIP) starting in 2011. However, there is substantial pneumococcal disease burden due to increases in non-PCV10 covered serotypes. Higher-valent vaccines for pediatrics (PCV13, PCV15, and PCV20) may alleviate much of the remaining disease burden upon implementation through broader serotype coverage. This article assesses the public health impact of different pediatric vaccination strategies (switching to PCV13, PCV15 or PCV20) versus maintaining PCV10 at different time intervals in the Netherlands.

METHODS

A population-based, decision-analytic model was developed using historical pneumococcal disease surveillance data to forecast future invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), pneumonia, and otitis media (OM) cases over a 7-year period (2023-2029) under the following strategies: continued use of PCV10, switching to PCV13 in 2023, switching to PCV15 in 2023, and switching to PCV20 in 2024. Scenario analyses were performed to account for uncertainties in future serotype distributions, disease incidence reductions, and epidemiologic parameters.

RESULTS

Switching to PCV13 in 2023 was found to avert 26,666 cases of pneumococcal disease compared to continuing PCV10 over a 7-year period (2023-2029). Switching to PCV15 in 2023 was found to avert 30,645 pneumococcal cases over the same period. Switching to PCV20 once available in 2024 was estimated to avert 45,127 pneumococcal cases from 2024-2029. Overall conclusions were maintained after testing uncertainties.

CONCLUSIONS

For the Dutch pediatric NIP, switching to PCV13 in 2023 would be an effective strategy compared with continued use of PCV10 for averting pneumococcal disease cases. Switching to PCV20 in 2024 was estimated to avert the most pneumococcal disease cases and provide the highest protection. However, in the face of budget constraints and the undervaluation of prevention strategies, it remains challenging to implement higher valent vaccines. Further research is needed to understand the cost-effectiveness and feasibility of a sequential approach.

Pneumococcal Vaccination in Children: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Cost-Effectiveness Studies

OBJECTIVES

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have significantly reduced disease burden caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae, a leading cause of childhood morbidity and mortality globally. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to assess the incremental net benefit (INB) of the 13-valent PCV (PCV13) and 10-valent PCV (PCV10) in children.

METHODS

We performed a comprehensive search in several databases published before May 2022. Studies were included if they were cost-effectiveness or cost-utility analyses of PCV13 or PCV10 compared with no vaccination or with each other in children. Various monetary units were converted to purchasing power parity, adjusted to 2021 US dollars. The INBs were calculated and then pooled across studies stratified by country income level, perspective, and consideration of herd effects, using a random-effect model.

RESULTS

Seventy studies were included. When herd effects were considered, PCV13 was cost-effective compared with PCV10 from the payer perspective in both high-income countries (HICs) (INB, $103.94; 95% confidence interval, $75.28-$132.60) and low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) (INB, $53.49; 95% confidence interval, $30.42-$76.55) with statistical significance. These findings were robust across a series of sensitivity analyses. PCV13 was cost-effective compared with no vaccination across perspectives and consideration of herd effects in both HICs and LMICs, whereas findings were less consistent for PCV10.

CONCLUSION

PCVs were generally cost-effective compared with no vaccination in HICs and LMICs. Our study found that PCV13 was cost-effective compared with PCV10 when herd effects were considered from the payer perspective in both HICs and LMICs. The results are sensitive to the consideration of herd effects.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of the South African Infant National Immunization Program for the Prevention of Pneumococcal Disease

INTRODUCTION

Pneumococcal disease, which presents a substantial health and economic burden, is prevented through pneumococcal vaccination programs. We assessed the impact of switching from a 13-valent-based (PCV13) to lower 10-valent-based (PCV10-GlaxoSmithKline [GSK] or PCV10-Serum Institute of India [SII]) or higher-valent (PCV15 or PCV20) vaccination programs in South Africa.

METHODS

A previously published decision-analytic model was adapted to a South African setting. Historical invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) incidence data were used to project IPD incidence over time for each vaccination program on the basis of serotype coverage. Historical incidence (IPD, pneumonia, otitis media), mortality, costs, and utilities were obtained from the published literature. Cases of disease, direct medical costs (i.e., vaccination, IPD, pneumonia, and otitis media costs) (in 2022 South African rands), life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALY), and incremental cost per QALY were estimated over a 5- and 10-year horizon for PCV13 and the PCV10 vaccines. Additionally, a public health impact analysis was conducted comparing PCV13, PCV15, and PCV20.

RESULTS

Continuing use of PCV13 would substantially reduce disease incidence over time compared with switching to either of the PCV10 lower-valent vaccines. Cases of IPD were reduced by 4.22% and 34.70% when PCV13 was compared to PCV10-GSK and PCV10-SII, respectively. PCV13 was also found to be cost saving over 5- and 10-year time horizons compared with PCV10-SII and to be cost-effective over a 5-year time horizon and cost-saving over a 10-year time horizon compared with PCV10-GSK. PCV20 was consistently estimated to prevent more cases than the PCV10 vaccines, PCV13, or PCV15.

CONCLUSIONS

Switching from a higher-valent to a lower-valent vaccine may lead to disease incidence re-emergence caused by previously covered serotypes. Maintaining PCV13 was estimated to improve public health further by averting additional pneumococcal disease cases and saving more lives and also to reduce total costs in most scenarios. Higher-valent PCVs can achieve the greatest public health impact in the pediatric vaccination program in South Africa.

Cost-utility and cost-benefit analysis of pediatric PCV programs in Egypt

New vaccine introductions (NVIs) raise issues of value for money (VfM) for self-financing middle-income countries like Egypt. We evaluate a pediatric pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) NVI in Egypt from health payer and societal perspectives, using cost-utility and cost-benefit analysis (CUA, CBA). We evaluate vaccinating 100 successive birth cohorts with the 13-valent PCV ("PCV13") and the 10-valent PCV ("PCV10") relative to no vaccination and each other. We quantify health effects with a disease incidence projection model and a multiple-cohort static disease model. Our CBA uses a health-augmented lifecycle model to generate willingness-to-pay for health gains from which we calculate rates of return (RoR). We obtain parameters from the published literature. We perform deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Our base-case CUA finds incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for PCV13 and PCV10 relative to no program of $926 (95% confidence interval $512-$1,735) and $1,984 ($1,186-$3,805) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY), respectively; and for PCV13 relative to PCV10 of $174 ($88-$331) per QALY. Our base-case CBA finds RoRs to PCV13 and PCV10 relative to no program of 488% (188-993%) and 164% (33-336%), respectively, and to PCV13 relative to PCV10 of 3109% (1410-6602%). Both CUA and CBA find PCV13 to be good VfM relative to PCV10.

Clinical and Economic Burden of Pneumococcal Disease Due to Serotypes Contained in Current and Investigational Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines in Children Under Five Years of Age

INTRODUCTION

The widespread implementation of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) has significantly reduced the burden of pneumococcal disease around the world. Although licensed 10-valent (PCV10) and 13-valent (PCV13) vaccines have considerably reduced mortality and morbidity, a sizeable disease burden attributable to serotypes not contained in these PCVs remains. This study aimed to estimate the annual clinical and economic burden of pneumococcal disease attributable to licensed (PCV10 and PCV13) and investigational PCVs, notably 15-valent (PCV15) and 20-valent (PCV20) vaccines, in 13 countries in children under 5 years of age.

METHODS

A decision-analytic model was created to aggregate total cases [inclusive of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), pneumonia, and otitis media (OM)], deaths, and direct costs in each country of interest [stratified by PCV10/PCV13 countries, depending on national immunization programs (NIPs)] over 1 year, using up to the three most recent years of available serotype coverage data. Data inputs were sourced from local databases, surveillance reports, and published literature.

RESULTS

In 5 PCV10 NIPs (Austria, Finland, Netherlands, New Zealand, Sweden), most remaining PCV20-type disease was due to PCV13-unique serotypes (30-85%), followed by PCV20-unique (9-50%), PCV15-unique (4-15%), and PCV10-unique (2-14%) serotypes. In 8 PCV13 NIPs (Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, South Korea, Spain, United Kingdom), most remaining PCV20-type disease was caused by PCV20-unique serotypes (16-69%), followed by PCV13-unique (11-54%), PCV15-unique (2-33%), and PCV10-unique serotypes (3-19%). Across all countries, PCV20 serotypes caused 3000 to 345,000 cases of disease and cost between $1.3 and $44.9 million USD annually with variability driven by population size, NIP status, and epidemiologic inputs. In aggregate, PCV20 serotypes caused 1,234,000 cases and $213.5 million in annual direct medical costs in children under 5 years of age.

CONCLUSION

Despite the success of PCV10 and PCV13 in reducing pneumococcal disease, a substantial clinical and economic burden remains due to serotypes contained in investigational vaccines.

Cost-Effectiveness of the 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine (PCV13) Versus Lower-Valent Alternatives in Filipino Infants

Introduction

The Philippines pediatric national immunization program (NIP) included the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine manufactured by Pfizer (PCV13-PFE) since 2015. Uptake has been slow in particular regions, with coverage only reaching all regions in 2019. Given affordability challenges in the context of higher coverage, this study seeks to determine whether universal coverage across all regions of the Philippines with PCV13-PFE will provide good value for money compared with 10-valent PCV alternatives manufactured by GlaxoSmithKline (PCV10-GSK) or Serum Institute of India (PCV10-SII).

Methods

A decision analytic model is adapted for this cost-effectiveness analysis in the Philippines. Clinical and economic input parameters are taken from published sources. Future disease is predicted using age-stratified and population-level observed serotype dynamics. Total cases of pneumococcal disease, deaths, direct and indirect healthcare costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained are discounted 7% annually and modeled for each PCV. Given clinical uncertainty, PCV10-SII outcomes are reported as ranges. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) are calculated for PCV13-PFE versus lower-valent PCVs (PCV10-GSK or PCV10-SII) from a societal perspective over 10 years.

Results

Nationwide PCV13-PFE use over 10 years is estimated to avert 375,831 more cases, save 53,189 additional lives, and gain 153,349 QALYs compared with PCV10-GSK. This equates to cost-savings of PHP 12.27 billion after vaccine costs are accounted for. Similarly, PCV13-PFE is more effective and cost-saving compared with PCV10-SII. Switching programs to PCV10-SII would result in more cases of disease (313,797 – 666,889), more deaths (22,759 – 72,435), and lost QALYs (108,061 – 266,108), equating to a net economic loss (PHP 359.82 million – 14.41 billion). PCV13-PFE remains cost-effective in the presence of parameter uncertainty.

Conclusion

PCV13-PFE would prevent exceedingly more cases and deaths compared with lower-valent PCVs. Additionally, the PCV13-PFE program is estimated to continue providing cost-savings, offering the best value for money to achieve universal PCV coverage in the Philippines.

Validation of a Novel Forecasting Method for Estimating the Impact of Switching Pneumococcal Conjugate Programs: Evidence from Belgium

Introduction

Since 2010, 10-valent (PCV10) and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV13) have been available as part of infant national immunization programs. Belgium is as one of the few countries that implemented PCV13 (2007–2015), switched to PCV10 (2015–2018) and then switched back to PCV13 (2018–present) after observing increases in disease. We assessed the impacts of both historical and prospective PCV choice in the context of the Belgian health care system and used this experience to validate previously developed economic models.

Methods

Using historical incidence (2007–2018) of pneumococcal disease for Belgian children aged < 16 years, observed invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) trends from surveillance data were used to estimate future disease in a given PCV13- or PCV10-based program. We compared observed incidence data with two modeled scenarios: (1) the 2015 switch to PCV10 and (2) a hypothetical continuation of PCV13 in 2015. Finally, we explored the potential impact of PCV choice from 2019 to 2023 by comparing three scenarios: (3) continued use of PCV10; (4) a switch back to PCV13; (5) a hypothetical scenario in which Belgium never switched from PCV13.

Results

Model predictions underestimated observed data from 2015 to 2018 by 100 IPD cases among ages < 16 years. Comparing observed data with scenario 2 suggests that PCV13 would have prevented 105 IPD cases from 2015 to 2018 compared with PCV10. Switching to PCV13 in 2019 would avert 625 IPD cases through 2023 compared with continuing PCV10. Scenario never switching from PCV13 would have resulted in a reduction of 204 cases from 2016 to 2023 compared with switching to PCV10 and switching back to PCV13.

Conclusion

The findings from this study suggest that previously published modeling results of PCV13 versus PCV10 in other countries may have underestimated the benefit of PCV13. These results highlight the importance of continually protecting against vaccine-preventable pneumococcal serotypes.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40121-021-00485-9.

The Impact of Haemophilus Influenzae and Streptococcus Pneumoniae Vaccination in Bacterial Meningitis in a Pediatric Referral Hospital in Mexico

Objective This study aimed to compare the epidemiology of bacterial meningitis (BM) before and after vaccination, and identify possible risk factors associated with mortality.

Methods The medical and microbiologic records of children (1 month–18 years) with a discharge diagnosis of BM in a third level children's hospital in Mexico from 1990 to 2018 were reviewed. The epidemiology, pathogens, and outcomes were compared before and after introducing Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) and pneumococcal conjugate vaccines to the Mexican immunization schedule. Risk factors associated with mortality were determined.

Results In the 28-year period, 226 cases with BM were included 55.8% (1990–1999), 27.4% (2000–2008), and 16.8% (2009–2018) (p = 0.0001). The most frequent pathogen was Hib, documented in 39% of cases. There was a reduction in neurological complications after introducing the Hib conjugate vaccine (59 vs. 39%; p = 0.003) and sequelae after the Streptococcus pneumoniae conjugate vaccine (43 vs. 35%; p = 0.05). Independent risk factors associated with mortality were coma (odds ratio [OR]: 15 [2.9–78]), intracerebral bleeding (OR: 3.5 [1.4–12]), and pneumococcal meningitis (OR: 9.4 [2.2–39]).

Conclusion Since the introduction of Hib and pneumococcal conjugate vaccines to the national immunization schedule, there was a reduction in BM cases, mainly associated with the Hib vaccine, with the consequent reduction of neurological complications and sequelae.

Pneumococcal and Influenza Vaccination Rates and Pneumococcal Invasive Disease Rates Set Geographical and Ethnic Population Susceptibility to Serious COVID-19 Cases and Deaths

This study examines the relationship of pneumococcal vaccination rates, influenza, measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccinations (DTP), polio, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), and Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (tuberculosis) vaccination rates to COVID-19 case and death rates for 51 nations that have high rates of COVID-19 testing and for which nearly complete childhood, at-risk adult and elderly pneumococcal vaccination data were available. The study is unique in a large number of nations examined, the range of vaccine controls, in testing effects of combinations of vaccinations, and in examining the relationship of COVID-19 and vaccination rates to invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). Analysis of Italian regions and the states of the United States were also performed. Significant positive correlations were found between IPD (but not lower respiratory infections) and COVID-19 rates, while significant negative correlations were found between pneumococcal vaccination and COVID-19 rates. Influenza and MMR vaccination rates were negatively correlated with lower respiratory infection (LRI) rates and may synergize with pneumococcal vaccination rates to protect against COVID-19. Pneumococcal and influenza vaccination rates were independent of other vaccination rates. These results suggest that endemic rates of bacterial pneumonias, for which pneumococci are a sentinel, may set regional and national susceptibility to severe COVID-19 disease and death.

Mathematical assessment of the impact of cohort vaccination on pneumococcal carriage and serotype replacement

Although pneumococcal vaccines are quite effective in reducing disease burden, factors such as imperfect vaccine efficacy and serotype replacement present an important challenge against realizing direct and herd protection benefits of the vaccines. In this study, a novel mathematical model is designed and used to describe the dynamics of two Streptococcus pneumoniae (SP) serotypes, in response to the introduction of a cohort vaccination program which targets one of the two serotypes. The model is fitted to a pediatric SP carriage prevalence data from Atlanta, GA. The model, which is rigorously analysed to investigate the existence and asymptotic stability properties of the associated equilibria (in addition to exploring conditions for competitive exclusion), is simulated to assess the impact of vaccination under different levels of serotype-specific competition and illustrate the phenomenon of serotype replacement. The calibrated model is used to forecast the carriage prevalence in the pediatric cohort over 30 years.

Reply letter to "response to article by Johnna Perdrizet et al." by Gomez and colleagues

This communication seeks to address the questions and criticisms issued by Gomez and colleagues in their letter on our original study “Cost-effectiveness analysis of replacing the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) with the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in Brazil infants.” Gomez and colleagues are concerned that the assumptions used in our model may have unintended negative impacts for Brazil decision-making and we intend to clarify any potential misinterpretation of our assessment.

Retrospective Impact Analysis and Cost-Effectiveness of the Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Infant Program in Australia

Australia introduced the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (7vPCV) on the universal infant National Immunisation Program (NIP) in 2005 and replaced it with the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (13vPCV) in 2011, both under a 3 + 0 schedule. The objective of this analysis was to quantify the clinical and economic impact of the universal infant PCV program in Australia from its introduction. A decision-analytic model was developed to estimate the historical impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) programs in Australia from a direct health care perspective. Historical incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), pneumonia, and otitis media (OM) were obtained from available Australian epidemiologic databases supplemented with published data. Costs were from Medicare Benefits Schedule in 2018 Australian dollars and utility weights from published sources. Historical observed changes in disease for the universal PCV NIP era (2005–2017) were compared against a “no-vaccine” scenario. The expected incidence for the no-vaccine scenario in years 2005–2017 was calculated using pre-universal PCV NIP era (2001–2004) data. Averted cases, deaths, incremental costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were obtained by subtracting the vaccine scenario totals from the no-vaccine scenario totals. From the inclusion in the universal infant NIP, 7vPCV and 13vPCV are estimated to have prevented 1,770,024 cases of pneumococcal disease (IPD = 16,392; OM = 1,575,491; pneumonia = 102,059) and 1195 associated deaths. Over this period, there was a total 24,335 QALYs gained. Costs for the universal infant NIP were offset by $733 million direct costs saved, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $3347 per QALY gained. PCVs have provided substantial public health and economic value from sustained use in Australia. Results are conservative, since long-term pneumococcal disease consequences and broader socioeconomic benefits were not considered. Maintaining 13vPCV on the Australian infant NIP under the newly implemented 2 + 1 schedule will likely provide more return on investment and sustained reductions in pneumococcal disease.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of replacing the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) with the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in Brazil infants

Brazil currently has a 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) pediatric national immunization program (NIP). However, in recent years, there has been significant progressive increases in pneumococcal disease attributed to serotypes 3, 6A, and 19A, which are covered by the 13-valent PCV (PCV13). We sought to evaluate the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of switching from PCV10 to PCV13 for Brazilian infants from a payer perspective. A decision-analytic model was adapted to evaluate the clinical and economic outcomes of continuing PCV10 or switching to PCV13. The analysis estimated future costs ($BRL), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and health outcomes for PCV10 and PCV13 over 5 y. Input parameters were from published sources. Future serotype dynamics were predicted using Brazilian and global historical trends. Over 5 y, PCV13 could prevent 12,342 bacteremia, 15,330 meningitis, 170,191 hospitalized pneumonia, and 25,872 otitis media cases, avert 13,709 pneumococcal disease deaths, gain 20,317 QALYs, and save 172 million direct costs compared with PCV10. The use of PCV13 in the Brazilian NIP could reduce pneumococcal disease, improve population health, and save substantial health-care costs. Results are reliable even when considering uncertainty for possible serotype dynamics with different underlying assumptions.

Estimating the Clinical and Economic Impact of Switching from the 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine (PCV13) to the 10-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine (PCV10) in Italy

Background: Invasive and non-invasive pneumococcal diseases are significant health and economic burdens, especially in children and the elderly. Italy included the 7-valent (PCV7) and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in the National Immunization Program in 2007 and 2010, respectively, allowing a dramatic reduction in the burden of pneumococcal disease. In the era of budget constraints, decision-makers may consider switching from the higher-valent, more costly PCV13, to the lower-cost PCV10. This study estimated the potential public health and economic impact of changing vaccine programs from PCV13 to PCV10 in Italy. Methods: A decision-analytic forecasting model estimated the impact of PCV programs. Real-world surveillance data were used to forecast serotype distribution and disease incidence among children and the elderly over a specified 5-year time horizon. Costs and outcomes included estimates of cases and deaths avoided, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, and total costs from a payer perspective, discounted at an assumed rate of 3.0%, and robustness validated through several scenarios and sensitivity analyses. Results: A switch from PCV13 to PCV10 would increase invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) cases by 59.3% (4317 cases) over a 5-year horizon, primarily due to serotypes 3 and 19A. Pneumonia increased by 8.3% and acute otitis media (AOM) by 96.1%. Maintaining a PCV13 program would prevent a total incremental 531,435 disease cases (1.02M over a 10-year time horizon) and 641 deaths due to invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), with €23,642 per QALY gained over 5 years versus PCV10. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed that a PCV13-based program remained cost-effective in 99.7% of the simulations in Italy as parameters varied within their plausible range; percent vaccinated had the most impact. Conclusions: Maintaining the PCV13 strategy would provide substantial public health and economic benefits in Italy and is cost-effective. Switching from PCV13 to PCV10 would increase the incidence of pneumococcal disease primarily linked to re-emergence of serotypes 3 and 19A.

Estimating the population health and economic impacts of introducing a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in Malaysia- an economic evaluation

Pneumococcal disease is a potentially fatal bacterial infection that is vaccine-preventable. Malaysia has yet to adopt a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) into its national immunization program (NIP). In 2016, pneumonia was the 3^rd leading cause of death in children under five in Malaysia, accounting for 3.8% of under-five deaths. Introducing a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) is an effective strategy to reduce the disease burden. This study used a decision-analytic model to assess the potential impacts of introducing the available PCVs (13-valent and 10-valent) in Malaysia. Epidemiological and costs inputs were sourced from published literature. For each vaccination program, health outcomes and associated healthcare costs were estimated. The scenarios of initiating PCV13 vs. PCV10 and the status quo (no pneumococcal vaccine) were compared. Serotype trends of Finland and the U.K. were used to model the clinical impacts of PCV10 and PCV13 respectively. The base-case analysis used a societal perspective over a 5-year time horizon. Compared with PCV10, PCV13 was projected to avert an additional 190,628 cases of pneumococcal disease and 1126 cases of death. The acquisition of PCV13 was estimated to cost an incremental US$89,904,777, offset by a cost reduction of -US$250,219,914 on pneumococcal disease-related medical care and lost productivity. PCV13 demonstrated a higher cost-saving potential over PCV10. Compared with no vaccination, PCV13 was estimated as cost-saving. Results were robust across a series of sensitivity analyses. The introduction of PCV13 in a NIP was estimated to reduce a significant burden of disease and to be a cost-saving for the Malaysian health system.

Comment on Gomez et. al. "Response to article by Wasserman et. al. (2018) 'Modelling the sustained use of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine compared to switching to the 10-valent vaccine in Mexico'"

In a recent Letter, Gomez et. al. provided a critique of our original analysis estimating the clinical and economic impact of switching from the 13-valent (PCV13) to the 10-valent (PCV10) pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in Mexico. This comment addresses Gomez et. al.'s comments with additional information and clarifies potential misinterpretations.

Response to article by Matthew Wasserman et al. (2018): "Modeling the sustained use of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine compared to switching to the 10-valent vaccine in Mexico"

In a recent article, Wasserman et al. estimated and forecasted the health and economic impact of switching from the 13-valent (PCV-13) to the 10-valent (PHiD-CV) pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in Mexico’s national immunization program. In this response letter, we highlight various methodological inconsistencies and model input considerations that potentially bias the results and further recommendations made by the authors.