Survival rates of tropical and temperate passerines: a Trinidadian perspective

Nest survival of Seaside Sparrows (Ammospiza maritima) in the wake of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

In 2010, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill released an estimated 4.9 million barrels of oil into the Gulf of Mexico, damaging coastal ecosystems. Seaside Sparrows (Ammospiza maritima)-a year-round resident of Gulf Coast salt marshes-were exposed to oil, as shown by published isotopic and molecular analyses, but fitness consequences have not been clarified. We monitored nests around two bays in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, USA from 2012-2017 to assess possible impacts on the nesting biology of Seaside Sparrows. A majority of nests failed (76% of known-fate nests, N = 252 nests, 3521 exposure-days) during our study, and predation was the main cause of nest failure (~91% of failed nests). Logistic exposure analysis revealed that daily nest survival rate: (1) was greater at nests with denser vegetation at nest height, (2) was higher in the more sheltered bay we studied, (3) decreased over the course of the breeding season in each year, and (4) was not correlated with either sediment polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon concentrations or estimated predator abundance during the years for which we had those data. Although the Deepwater Horizon spill impacted other aspects of Seaside Sparrow ecology, we found no definitive effect of initial oiling or oiled sediment on nest survival during 2012-2017. Because predation was the overwhelming cause of nest failure in our study, additional work on these communities is needed to fully understand demographic and ecological impacts of storms, oil spills, other pollutants, and sea-level rise on Seaside Sparrows and their predators.

Do avian species survive better on islands?

Island species are often predictably different from their mainland counterparts. Milder climates and reduced predation risk on islands have been involved to explain shifts in body size and a suite of life-history traits such as clutch size and offspring growth rate. Despite the key role of adult survival on risk taking and reproduction, the prediction that living on islands increases adult survival has yet to be tested systematically. I gathered data on adult annual apparent survival from the island and mainland year-round resident species of birds from around the world. With this large dataset (697 species), I found that species of birds living on islands showed higher apparent survival than their mainland counterparts in the two Hemispheres and at all latitudes, controlling for several known predictors of adult survival, including body size, clutch size and breeding system. These results shed light on the ecological factors that influence survival on islands and extend the life-history island syndrome to adult survival.

Metabolic rate is negatively linked to adult survival but does not explain latitudinal differences in songbirds

Survival rates vary dramatically among species and predictably across latitudes, but causes of this variation are unclear. The rate-of-living hypothesis posits that physiological damage from metabolism causes species with faster metabolic rates to exhibit lower survival rates. However, whether increased survival commonly observed in tropical and south temperate latitudes is associated with slower metabolic rate remains unclear. We compared metabolic rates and annual survival rates that we measured across 46 species, and from literature data across 147 species of birds in northern, southern and tropical latitudes. High metabolic rates were associated with lower survival but survival varied substantially among latitudinal regions independent of metabolism. The inability of metabolic rate to explain latitudinal variation in survival suggests (1) species may evolve physiological mechanisms that mitigate physiological damage from cellular metabolism and (2) extrinsic rather than intrinsic sources of mortality are the primary causes of latitudinal differences in survival.

Survival of a long-lived single island endemic, the Raso lark Alauda razae, in relation to age, fluctuating population and rainfall

Estimating and understanding variation in survival rates is crucial for the management of threatened species, especially those with limited population sizes and/or restricted ranges. Using a capture-resighting dataset covering 2004–2017, we estimate adult survival in the Raso lark Alauda razae, a Critically Endangered single-island Cape Verdean endemic, whose population varied 25-fold during the study. Average annual adult survival was similar for males (0.813 ± 0.011) and females (0.826 ± 0.011) over the period. These values are high for a temperate passerine but not unusual for an insular tropical species like the lark. The oldest bird was recorded 13 years after first ringing. There was strong evidence that survival varied among years (between 0.57 and 0.95), being generally higher in wetter years. Survival, especially of males, was lower when the population was large, but only in drier years. Survival declined with age but there was no evidence that this decline was other than linear. High survival, even in the face of dry conditions, at least when the population is depressed, has probably contributed to the persistence of the species on its 7 km² island home over several centuries.

Apparent survival and cost of reproduction for White-lined Tanager (Tachyphonus rufus, Thraupidae) in the northern Atlantic Rainforest, Brazil

Understanding latitudinal variation in avian life-history traits has been a focus of many demographic studies around the world. However, we still know little about annual or intra-annual demographic variation within tropical regions or about how factors such as breeding season and precipitation influence demographic rates. In this study, we estimated intra-annual apparent survival of the White-lined Tanager (Tachyphonus rufus) using capture-mark-recapture data from northeastern Brazil. We tested whether survival varied seasonally (breeding vs. non-breeding), with rainfall, by age and residence status in our study area. Intra-annual apparent survival was correlated with the reproductive cycle, being lower during the breeding (0.65 ± 0.16 SE) vs. the non-breeding season (0.97 ± 0.05 SE). The annual apparent survival (~0.6) was relatively low for a tropical species. In both years, we observed highest abundance in spring (November, 3.1-3.7 birds/ha) and lowest abundance in autumn-winter periods (May-August, 1.1-1.4 bird/ha). The low survival during the breeding season probably reflects the trade-off between survival and reproduction and the cost of reproduction. Our findings represent an advance in the understanding of the demography of tropical birds because we did not find a predicted high annual apparent survival, and we elucidated some aspects of intra-annual variation in survival. Further exploration of latitudinal variation in demographic traits, especially in diverse, but poorly known habitats is needed to fully vet and develop life history theories.

The influence of climatic variation and density on the survival of an insular passerine Zosterops lateralis

Understanding the influence of environmental factors on population dynamics is fundamental to many areas in biology. Survival is a key factor of population biology, as it is thought to be the predominant driver of growth in long-lived passerines, which can be influenced by both biotic and abiotic environmental conditions. We used mark-recapture methods and generalized linear mixed models to test the influence of density and climatic variation, measured at a regional and local scale (Southern Oscillation Index [SOI] and rainfall, respectively), on seasonal variation in survival rates of an insular population of Silvereyes (Zosterops lateralis chlorocephalus), during a 15-year study period, off the east coast of Australia. We found overall high survival rates for adults and juveniles (81% and 59%, respectively). Local scale climate (i.e. rainfall) and density were the principal environmental factors influencing their survival, both with a negative relationship. A significant interactive effect of density and rainfall influenced survival as they both increased. However, survival remained low when density was at it highest, independent of the amount of rainfall. Nestling survival was negatively influenced by rainfall and density, positively by SOI, and chicks that hatched later in the breeding season had higher survival rates. The regional scale climate variable (i.e. SOI) did not explain survival rates as strongly as rainfall in any age class. Our results contribute to the understanding of insular avian population dynamics and the differential effects of environmental factors across age classes. Climatic predictions expect El Niño events to increase, meaning dryer conditions in eastern Australia, potentially increasing Silvereye survival across age classes. However, the long-term effect of lower rainfall on food availability is unknown; consequently, the outcome of lower rainfall on Silvereye survival rates is uncertain.

Population Viability and Vital Rate Sensitivity of an Endangered Avian Cooperative Breeder, the White-Breasted Thrasher (Ramphocinclus brachyurus)

Social behaviors can significantly affect population viability, and some behaviors might reduce extinction risk. We used population viability analysis to evaluate effects of past and proposed habitat loss on the White-breasted Thrasher (Ramphocinclus brachyurus), a cooperatively breeding songbird with a global population size of <2000 individuals. We used an individual-based approach to build the first demographic population projection model for this endangered species, parameterizing the model with data from eight years of field study before and after habitat loss within the stronghold of the species' distribution. The recent habitat loss resulted in an approximately 18% predicted decline in population size; this estimate was mirrored by a separate assessment using occupancy data. When mortality rates remained close to the pre-habitat loss estimate, quasi-extinction probability was low under extant habitat area, but increased with habitat loss expected after current plans for resort construction are completed. Post-habitat loss mortality rate estimates were too high for projected populations to persist. Vital rate sensitivity analyses indicated that population growth rate and population persistence were most sensitive to juvenile mortality. However, observed values for adult mortality were closest to the threshold value above which populations would crash. Adult mortality, already relatively low, may have the least capacity to change compared to other vital rates, whereas juvenile mortality may have the most capacity for improvement. Results suggest that improving mortality estimates and determining the cause(s) of juvenile mortality should be research priorities. Despite predictions that aspects of cooperative systems may result in variation in reproduction or juvenile mortality being the most sensitive vital rates, adult mortality was the most sensitive in half of the demographic models of other avian cooperative breeders. Interestingly, vital rate sensitivity differed by model type. However, studies that explicitly modeled the species' cooperative breeding system found reproduction to be the most sensitive rate.

Assessing population viability while accounting for demographic and environmental uncertainty

Predicting the future trend and viability of populations is an essential task in ecology. Because many populations respond to changing environments, uncertainty surrounding environmental responses must be incorporated into population assessments. However, understanding the effects of environmental variation on population dynamics requires information on several important demographic parameters that are often difficult to estimate. Integrated population models facilitate the integration of time series data on population size and all existing demographic information from a species, allowing the estimation of demographic parameters for which limited or no empirical data exist. Although these models are ideal for assessments of population viability, they have so far not included environmental uncertainty. We incorporated environmental variation in an integrated population model to account for both demographic and environmental uncertainty in an assessment of population viability. In addition, we used this model to estimate true juvenile survival, an important demographic parameter for population dynamics that is difficult to estimate empirically. We applied this model to assess the past and future population trend of a rare island endemic songbird, the Montserrat Oriole Icterus oberi, which is threatened by volcanic activity. Montserrat Orioles experienced lower survival in years with volcanic ashfall, causing periodic population declines that were compensated by higher seasonal fecundity in years with high pre-breeding season rainfall. Due to the inclusion of both demographic and environmental uncertainty in the model, the estimated population growth rate in the immediate future was highly imprecise (95% credible interval 0.844-1.105), and the probability of extinction after three generations (in the year 2028) was low (2.1%). This projection demonstrates that accounting for both demographic and environmental sources of uncertainty provides a more realistic assessment of the viability of populations under unknown future environmental conditions.

Does seasonality drive spatial patterns in demography? Variation in survival in African reed warblers Acrocephalus baeticatus across southern Africa does not reflect global patterns

Among birds, northern temperate species generally have larger clutches, shorter development periods and lower adult survival than similarly-sized southern and tropical species. Even though this global pattern is well accepted, the driving mechanism is still not fully understood. The main theories are founded on the differing environmental seasonality of these zones (higher seasonality in the North). These patterns arise in cross-species comparisons, but we hypothesized that the same patterns should arise among populations within a species if different types of seasonality select for different life histories. Few studies have examined this. We estimated survival of an azonal habitat specialist, the African reed warbler, across the environmentally diverse African subcontinent, and related survival to latitude and to the seasonality of the different environments of their breeding habitats. Data (1998-2010) collected through a public ringing scheme were analyzed with hierarchical capture-mark-recapture models to determine resident adult survival and its spatial variance across sixteen vegetation units spread across four biomes. The models were defined as state-space multi-state models to account for transience and implemented in a Bayesian framework. We did not find a latitudinal trend in survival or a clear link between seasonality and survival. Spatial variation in survival was substantial across the sixteen sites (spatial standard deviation of the logit mean survival: 0.70, 95% credible interval (CRI): 0.33-1.27). Mean site survival ranged from 0.49 (95% CRI: 0.18-0.80) to 0.83 (95% CRI: 0.62-0.97) with an overall mean of 0.67 (95% CRI: 0.47-0.85). A hierarchical modeling approach enabled us to estimate spatial variation in survival of the African reed warbler across the African subcontinent from sparse data. Although we could not confirm the global pattern of higher survival in less seasonal environments, our findings from a poorly studied region contribute to the study of life-history strategies.

Physiological underpinnings associated with differences in pace of life and metabolic rate in north temperate and neotropical birds

Animal life-history traits fall within limited ecological space with animals that have high reproductive rates having short lives, a continuum referred to as a "slow-fast" life-history axis. Animals of the same body mass at the slow end of the life-history continuum are characterized by low annual reproductive output and low mortality rate, such as is found in many tropical birds, whereas at the fast end, rates of reproduction and mortality are high, as in temperate birds. These differences in life-history traits are thought to result from trade-offs between investment in reproduction or self-maintenance as mediated by the biotic and abiotic environment. Thus, tropical and temperate birds provide a unique system to examine physiological consequences of life-history trade-offs at opposing ends of the "pace of life" spectrum. We have explored the implications of these trade-offs at several levels of physiological organization including whole-animal, organ systems, and cells. Tropical birds tend to have higher survival, slower growth, lower rates of whole-animal basal metabolic rate and peak metabolic rate, and smaller metabolically active organs compared with temperate birds. At the cellular level, primary dermal fibroblasts from tropical birds tend to have lower cellular metabolic rates and appear to be more resistant to oxidative cell stress than those of temperate birds. However, at the subcellular level, lipid peroxidation rates, a measure of the ability of lipid molecules within the cell membranes to thwart the propagation of oxidative damage, appear not to be different between tropical and temperate species. Nevertheless, lipids in mitochondrial membranes of tropical birds tend to have increased concentrations of plasmalogens (phospholipids with antioxidant properties), and decreased concentrations of cardiolipin (a complex phospholipid in the electron transport chain) compared with temperate birds.

Linkages between mitochondrial lipids and life history in temperate and tropical birds

Temperate birds tend to have a fast pace of life and short life spans with high reproductive output, whereas tropical birds tend to have a slower pace of life, invest fewer resources in reproduction, and have higher adult survival rates. How these differences in life history at the organismal level are rooted in differences at the cellular level is a major focus of current research. Here, we cultured fibroblasts from phylogenetically paired tropical and temperate species, isolated mitochondria from each, and compared their mitochondrial membrane lipids. We also correlated the amounts of these lipids with an important life history parameter, clutch size. We found that tropical birds tended to have less mitochondrial lipid per cell, especially less cardiolipin per cell, suggesting that cells from tropical birds have fewer mitochondria or less inner mitochondrial membrane per cell. We also found that the mitochondria of tropical birds and the species with the smallest clutch sizes had higher amounts of plasmalogens, a lipid that could serve as an antioxidant. Overall, our findings are consistent with the idea that there are underlying molecular and cellular physiological traits that could account for the differences in whole-animal physiology between animals with different life histories.

Apparent survival rates of forest birds in eastern Ecuador revisited: improvement in precision but no change in estimates

Knowledge of survival rates of Neotropical landbirds remains limited, with estimates of apparent survival available from relatively few sites and species. Previously, capture-mark-recapture models were used to estimate apparent survival of 31 species (30 passerines, 1 Trochilidae) from eastern Ecuador based on data collected from 2001 to 2006. Here, estimates are updated with data from 2001-2012 to determine how additional years of data affect estimates; estimates for six additional species are provided. Models assuming constant survival had highest support for 19 of 31 species when based on 12 years of data compared to 27 when based on six; models incorporating effects of transients had the highest support for 12 of 31 species compared to four when based on 12 and six years, respectively. Average apparent survival based on the most highly-supported model (based on model averaging, when appropriate) was 0.59 (± 0.02 SE) across 30 species of passerines when based on 12 years and 0.57 (± 0.02) when based on six. Standard errors of survival estimates based on 12 years were approximately half those based on six years. Of 31 species in both data sets, estimates of apparent survival were somewhat lower for 13, somewhat higher for 17, and remained unchanged for one; confidence intervals for estimates based on six and 12 years of data overlapped for all species. Results indicate that estimates of apparent survival are comparable but more precise when based on longer-term data sets; standard error of the estimates was negatively correlated with numbers of captures (rs  = -0.72) and recaptures (rs  = -0.93, P<0.001 in both cases). Thus, reasonable estimates of apparent survival may be obtained with relatively few years of data if sample sizes are sufficient.

Revisiting the effect of capture heterogeneity on survival estimates in capture-mark-recapture studies: does it matter?

Recently developed capture-mark-recapture methods allow us to account for capture heterogeneity among individuals in the form of discrete mixtures and continuous individual random effects. In this article, we used simulations and two case studies to evaluate the effectiveness of continuously distributed individual random effects at removing potential bias due to capture heterogeneity, and to evaluate in what situation the added complexity of these models is justified. Simulations and case studies showed that ignoring individual capture heterogeneity generally led to a small negative bias in survival estimates and that individual random effects effectively removed this bias. As expected, accounting for capture heterogeneity also led to slightly less precise survival estimates. Our case studies also showed that accounting for capture heterogeneity increased in importance towards the end of study. Though ignoring capture heterogeneity led to a small bias in survival estimates, such bias may greatly impact management decisions. We advocate reducing potential heterogeneity at the sampling design stage. Where this is insufficient, we recommend modelling individual capture heterogeneity in situations such as when a large proportion of the individuals has a low detection probability (e.g. in the presence of floaters) and situations where the most recent survival estimates are of great interest (e.g. in applied conservation).

Long-term demographic consequences of habitat fragmentation to a tropical understory bird community

Tropical deforestation continues to cause population declines and local extinctions in centers of avian diversity and endemism. Although local species extinctions stem from reductions in demographic rates, little is known about how habitat fragmentation influences survival of tropical bird populations or the relative importance of survival and fecundity in ultimately shaping communities. We analyzed 22 years of mark-recapture data to assess how fragmentation influenced apparent survival, recruitment, and realized population growth rate within 22 forest understory bird species in the Usambara Mountains, Tanzania. This represents the first such effort, in either tropical or temperate systems, to characterize the effect of deforestation on avian survival across such a broad suite of species. Long-term demographic analysis of this suite of species experiencing the same fragmented environment revealed considerable variability in species' responses to fragmentation, in addition to general patterns that emerged from comparison among species. Across the understory bird community as a whole, we found significantly lower apparent survival and realized population growth rate in small fragments relative to large, demonstrating fragmentation effects to demographic rates long after habitat loss, Demographic rates were depressed across five feeding guilds, suggesting that fragmentation sensitivity was not limited to insectivores. Seniority analyses, together with a positive effect of fragmentation on recruitment, indicated that depressed apparent survival was the primary driver of population declines and observed extinctions. We also found a landscape effect, with lower vital rates in one mountain range relative to another, suggesting that fragmentation effects may add to other large-scale drivers of population decline. Overall, realized population growth rate (lambda) estimates were < 1 for most species, suggesting that future population persistence, even within large forest fragments, is uncertain in this biodiversity hotspot.

Small organ size contributes to the slow pace of life in tropical birds

Attributes of an animal's life history, such as reproductive rate or longevity, typically fall along a 'slow-fast' continuum. Animals at the fast end of this continuum, such as temperate birds, are thought to experience high rates of mortality and invest more resources in reproduction, whereas animals at the slow end, such as tropical birds, live longer, have fewer offspring and invest more resources in self-maintenance. We have previously shown that tropical birds, compared with temperate species, have a reduced basal (BMR) and peak metabolic rate (PMR), patterns consistent with a slow pace of life. Here, we elucidate a fundamental linkage between the smaller mass of central organs of tropical species and their reduced BMR, and between their smaller flight muscles and reduced PMR. Analyses of up to 408 species from the literature showed that the heart, flight muscles, liver, pancreas and kidneys were smaller in tropical species. Direct measurements on 49 species showed smaller heart, lungs, flight muscles, liver, kidneys, ovaries and testes in tropical species, as well as lower feather mass. In combination, our results indicate that the benign tropical environment imposes a relaxed selection pressure on high levels of sustained metabolic performance, permitting species to reduce the mass of organs that are energetically costly to maintain. Brain, gizzard and intestine were exceptions, even though energy turnover of brain and intestine are high. Feather mass was 37% lower in tropical species compared with similar-sized temperate birds, supporting the idea that temperate birds require more insulation for thermoregulation.

Lifetime fitness correlates of natal dispersal distance in a colonial bird

1. Obtaining empirical evidence of the consequences of dispersal distance on fitness is challenging in wild animals because long-term, unbiased data on reproduction, survival and movement are notoriously difficult to obtain. 2. Lifetime fitness correlates of natal dispersal distance were studied in an isolated population of the facultatively colonial lesser kestrel Falco naumanni (Fleischer) monitored during 8 years at north-eastern Spain, where most birds (83%) dispersed from their natal colony to settle at distances ranging from 112 m to 136.5 km. 3. Neither annual breeding success nor age at recruitment was affected by natal dispersal distance. However, a capture-mark-recapture analysis revealed that survival during the year following recruitment decreased exponentially with dispersal distance, with differences of up to 15% between philopatrics and long-distance dispersers. In subsequent years, it remained similar irrespective of the natal dispersal distance moved. These results did not seem to be biased by long-distance dispersers settling differentially in the periphery of the population (which could emigrate permanently and be considered dead in future occasions) or within-individual consistency in successive dispersal distances, so our results appear to reflect genuine survival differences between dispersal tactics. 4. Average lifetime fledgling production, average lifetime recruitment success and rate-sensitive individual fitness (λ(ind)) also decreased with the distance from the natal to the first-breeding colony, indicating that dispersal decisions early in life affecting immediate survival prospects may translate into long-term fitness costs. 5. Both survival and lifetime fitness models including continuous dispersal distances significantly improved the characterization of the effect on fitness compared with models considering dispersal as a discrete process (i.e. dispersal vs. philopatry at a colony level). 6. Long-distance dispersers were more likely to establish new colonies regardless of whether they recruited in the centre or the periphery of the population, revealing their important role in the colonization of unoccupied patches. Individuals experienced a higher probability of mortality in small and newly funded colonies, so lifetime fitness costs of dispersal seem to be explained by recruitment in sites where average quality is low because of high uncertainty in survival prospects.

Growth rate variation among passerine species in tropical and temperate sites: an antagonistic interaction between parental food provisioning and nest predation risk

Causes of interspecific variation in growth rates within and among geographic regions remain poorly understood. Passerine birds represent an intriguing case because differing theories yield the possibility of an antagonistic interaction between nest predation risk and food delivery rates on evolution of growth rates. We test this possibility among 64 Passerine species studied on three continents, including tropical and north and south temperate latitudes. Growth rates increased strongly with nestling predation rates within, but not between, sites. The importance of nest predation was further emphasized by revealing hidden allometric scaling effects. Nestling predation risk also was associated with reduced total feeding rates and per-nestling feeding rates within each site. Consequently, faster growth rates were associated with decreased per-nestling food delivery rates across species, both within and among regions. These relationships suggest that Passerines can evolve growth strategies in response to predation risk whereby food resources are not the primary limit on growth rate differences among species. In contrast, reaction norms of growth rate relative to brood size suggest that food may limit growth rates within species in temperate, but not tropical, regions. Results here provide new insight into evolution of growth strategies relative to predation risk and food within and among species.

Demography of Reintroduced Eastern Bluebirds and Brown-Headed Nuthatches

Species reintroductions are used commonly as a tool for conservation, but rigorous, quantitative assessments of their outcome rarely occur. Such assessments are critical for determining success of the reintroduction and for identifying management actions needed to ensure persistence of reintroduced populations. We collected 9 years of demographic data on populations of brown-headed nuthatches (Sitta pusilla) and Eastern bluebirds (Sialia sialis) reintroduced via translocation into Long Pine Key, Everglades National Park, Florida, USA. Realized population growth of brown-headed nuthatches was positive in the first 3 years after cessation of translocations (λ₂₀₀₂ = 1.15, SE = 0.13; λ₂₀₀₃ = 1.28, SE = 0.12; λ₂₀₀₅ = 1.32, SE = 0.20) but became negative thereafter (λ₂₀₀₆ = 0.67, SE = 0.10; λ₂₀₀₇ = 0.77, SE = 0.13). Realized growth rate for the Eastern bluebird population did not vary among years and indicated either a stable or a slowly declining population (λ = 0.92, SE = 0.04). Reintroductions were a qualified success; they resulted in the re-establishment of populations of both species, but neither population grew to the extent expected and both remained at risk of extinction.

Population dynamics of the ruddy-capped nightingale thrush (Catharus frantzii) in Chiapas, Mexico: influences of density, productivity and survival

We used long-term population data for the ruddy-capped nightingale thrush (Catharus frantzii Cabanis), to examine the influence of forest conditions on annual productivity, survival and growth rate (λ) in a montane forest reserve of Chiapas, southern Mexico, from 1995 to 2003. Productivity was higher in primary, mature forest than in secondary, young forest. More adults were captured in primary forest (n = 132) than in secondary forest (n = 64). Adult survival (φ = 0.79) and encounter rate (ρ = 0.36) did not vary across habitats. Males and females had similar survival between primary and secondary forests (φ = 0.80 vs. 0.83, and 0.77 vs. 0.79, respectively). Juvenile survival (φ = 0.67) was only 12% lower than for adults. Overall, the population of C. frantzii appeared to be declining at 3% y−1 (λ = 0.97, SE = 0.09, 95% CI = 0.88–1.03). Productivity and survival correlated positively with λ across years within habitats, although survival was the primary, significant demographic parameter determining λ. Although habitat alteration may have reduced the carrying capacity and productivity in secondary forest, there was no apparent negative effect on population persistence in this habitat. Thus, secondary forests represent habitats that may facilitate the long-term persistence of C. frantzii populations.

Habitat fragmentation lowers survival of a tropical forest bird

Population ecology research has long been focused on linking environmental features with the viability of populations. The majority of this work has largely been carried out in temperate systems and, until recently, has examined the effects of habitat fragmentation on survival. In contrast, we looked at the effect of forest fragmentation on apparent survival of individuals of the White-ruffed Manakin (Corapipo altera) in southern Costa Rica. Survival and recapture rates were estimated using mark-recapture analyses, based on capture histories from 1993 to 2006. We sampled four forest patches ranging in size from 0.9 to 25 ha, and four sites in the larger 227-ha Las Cruces Biological Station Forest Reserve (LCBSFR). We found a significant difference in annual adult apparent survival rates for individuals marked and recaptured in forest fragments vs. individuals marked and recaptured in the larger LCBSFR. Contrary to our expectation, survival and recapture probabilities did not differ between male and female manakins. Also, there was no support for the existence of annual variation in survival within each study site. Our results suggest that forest fragmentation is likely having an effect on population dynamics for the White-ruffed Manakin in this landscape. Therefore, populations that appear to be persisting in fragmented landscapes might still be at risk of local extinction, and conservation action for tropical birds should be aimed at identifying and reducing sources of adult mortality. Future studies in fragmentation effects on reproductive success and survival, across broad geographical scales, will be needed before it is possible to achieve a clear understanding of the effects of habitat fragmentation on populations for both tropical and temperate regions.

Estimating annual survival in sexually dimorphic species from proportions of first-year birds

We estimated the annual adult survival (S) of several species of temperate and tropical sexually dimorphic tanagers and manakins from the proportions of first-year and older individuals in museum collections. In the case of the sexually dimorphic species included here, young males through their first year resemble females and can be distinguished from older males. We assumed that the sex ratio among first-year birds is even and estimated the number of immature females (IF) in a sample as equal to the number of immature males (IM), using sex information on museum labels. The number of adult females (AF) is the total number of females (F) minus IF, and survival can be estimated by S = AF/F. We used a Monte Carlo resampling approach to estimate standard errors and 1% and 99% confidence limits on S for samples of size N, based on 1000 sets of N randomly drawn individuals and observed proportions of the F, IM, and AM classes. Estimates of annual survival (S) were 0.60-0.73 in four North American species of Piranga tanagers and 0.50 and 0.62 in two montane Central American species. Values of S in lowland species of Habia and Ramphocelus tanagers ranged between 0.68 and 0.82. Annual survival in Pipra manakins was 0.53-0.68, and values for two Manacus species were 0.69 and 0.70. Where estimates of apparent survival (phi) from capture-recapture studies were available, the two methods produced correlated results with a tendency for phi < S. Among tanagers, only Ramphocelus dimidiatus (0.82) and Piranga bidentata (0.50) stood out from the other species, for which S averaged 0.66 +/- 0.05 (SD). Annual survival rates of temperate and tropical species overlapped broadly in this analysis, reinforcing the conclusion that distinctive life-history traits of temperate vs. tropical species cannot be explained completely by the adjustment of reproductive investment in relation to adult survival and the expectation of future life.

THE UNIFIED NEUTRAL THEORY OF BIODIVERSITY: DO THE NUMBERS ADD UP?

Hubbell's unified neutral theory is a zero-sum ecological drift model in which population sizes change at random in a process resembling genetic drift, eventually leading to extinction. Diversity is maintained within the community by speciation. Hubbell's model makes predictions about the distribution of species abundances within communities and the turnover of species from place to place (beta diversity). However, ecological drift cannot be tested adequately against these predictions without independent estimates of speciation rates, population sizes, and dispersal distances. A more practical prediction from ecological drift is that time to extinction of a population of size N is approximately 2N generations. I test this prediction here using data for passerine birds (Passeriformes). Waiting times to speciation and extinction were estimated from genetic divergence between sister populations and a lineage-through-time plot for endemic South American suboscine passerines. Population sizes were estimated from local counts of birds in two large forest plots extrapolated to the area of wet tropical forest in South America and from atlas data on European passerines. Waiting times to extinction (ca. 2 Ma) are much less than twice the product of average population size (4.0 and 14.4 x 10(6) individuals in South America and Europe) and generation length (five and three years) for songbirds, that is, 40 and 86 Ma, respectively. Thus, drift is too slow to account for turnover in regional avifaunas. Presumably, other processes, involving external drivers, such as climate and physiographic change, and internal drivers, such as evolutionary change in antagonistic interactions, predominate. Hubbell's model is historical and geographic, and his perspective importantly links local and regional process and pattern. Ecological reality can be added to the mix while retaining Hubbell's concept of continuity of communities in space and time.

A comparison of random draw and locally neutral models for the avifauna of an English woodland

BACKGROUND

Explanations for patterns observed in the structure of local assemblages are frequently sought with reference to interactions between species, and between species and their local environment. However, analyses of null models, where non-interactive local communities are assembled from regional species pools, have demonstrated that much of the structure of local assemblages remains in simulated assemblages where local interactions have been excluded. Here we compare the ability of two null models to reproduce the breeding bird community of Eastern Wood, a 16-hectare woodland in England, UK. A random draw model, in which there is complete annual replacement of the community by immigrants from the regional pool, is compared to a locally neutral community model, in which there are two additional parameters describing the proportion of the community replaced annually (per capita death rate) and the proportion of individuals recruited locally rather than as immigrants from the regional pool.

RESULTS

Both the random draw and locally neutral model are capable of reproducing with significant accuracy several features of the observed structure of the annual Eastern Wood breeding bird community, including species relative abundances, species richness and species composition. The two additional parameters present in the neutral model result in a qualitatively more realistic representation of the Eastern Wood breeding bird community, particularly of its dynamics through time. The fact that these parameters can be varied, allows for a close quantitative fit between model and observed communities to be achieved, particularly with respect to annual species richness and species accumulation through time.

CONCLUSION

The presence of additional free parameters does not detract from the qualitative improvement in the model and the neutral model remains a model of local community structure that is null with respect to species differences at the local scale. The ability of this locally neutral model to describe a larger number of woodland bird communities with either little variation in its parameters or with variation explained by features local to the woods themselves (such as the area and isolation of a wood) will be a key subsequent test of its relevance.

Manakins (Pipridae) in Second-Growth and Old-Growth Forests: Patterns of Habitat Use, Movement, and Survival

We used capture and recapture data (1985 to 1994) to examine seasonal variation in habitat use, movements within and among habitats, and survival rates of manakins (Manacus candei, Corapipo altera, Pipra mentalis, P. pipra) in northeastern Costa Rica. Manakins were captured in young and old second-growth woodlands in the lowlands and in old-growth forest at approximately 50, 500, and 1,000 m. Manakin species differed in their use of habitats, with old-growth forest species showing large and predictable seasonal variation in capture rates. Corapipo capture rates in lowland (nonbreeding) habitats were greater during the wet season than during the dry season and were greater in old-growth forest than in second growth. Capture rates at 500 m were higher in the dry season. Pipra mentalis capture rates were high in second growth and old growth. Capture rates were higher in the wet season and were correlated with capture rates of Corapipo, indicating that at least some individual P. mentalis migrate along the elevational gradient. P. pipra capture rates were highest at 1,000 m; few individuals descended to lowlands in the wet season. Manacus capture rates were highest in young second growth and did not vary between wet and dry seasons. Use of second-growth habitats by species typically associated with old-growth forests illustrates the value of maintaining a mosaic of habitats to accommodate seasonal changes in use of habitats. Contrary to expectations based on lek mating systems, there was little evidence that movements within habitats (i.e. recapture distances) varied between sexes. Yet, recapture percentages were higher in all species for adult females than males. Adult survival rates were ∼0.75 for Manacus in young second growth, 0.62 for Corapipo in old-growth forest at 50 m and 0.66 at 500 m, and 0.70 for Pipra mentalis in lowland old-growth forest. Results support the suggestion that geographic variation in survival rates may be common in the tropics and illustrate the need for examining survival rates separately by age and sex.